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Jerick McKinnon Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
Shark Pool! We're baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack

After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a main feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence. 

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

Thanks!

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Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers

McKinnon looked like the possible odd man out last year in Minnesota as rookie Dalvin Cook was playing at a Pro Bowl level, and veteran Latavius Murray was brought in as the #2. Yet, Cook's early-season injury opened the door for a McKinnon/Murray committee. The young running back parlayed a solid showing into free agent riches this year, and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has indicated McKinnon will be the centerpiece of the offense. Do you think he's up to the task? Does your excitement for McKinnon differ between PPR and standard (non-PPR) formats?

 
Oh good, I always liked these player spotlight discussion threads. Unfortunately I don't have much to contribute to this one.

It's impossible not to like McKinnon's measurables. As impressive as they all are, I've always been most impressed with a 5'9" 209 lbs guy bench pressing 225 lbs 32 times. But for all his physical gifts, he's never been able to fully put it together as a runner (only 3.8 ypc in last year's potent MIN offense and 3.4 in the 2016 dumpster fire of an offense). I don't have the eyes of a scout nor the dedication to watch enough of his film to say why, but whether it's a lack of vision or lack of patience or something else, I'm officially worried he doesn't have what it takes to be a good between the tackles runner. He's certainly got the hands and speed to be an effective pass catcher, but I'm not as optimistic as others about his supposed bellcow role in SF. The volume alone should get him through this season as a quality fantasy start, but I fear he'll turn out to be a bad buy in dynasty leagues. If he falters between the tackles, rookie GM Lynch has shown no regard for draft picks or salary cap, so I expect he'll bring in competition immediately if he senses a need.

In a lot of ways, McKinnon reminds me of Tevin Coleman - coincidentally a former Shanahan RB. To me Coleman lacks the between the tackles ability, but was able to thrive catching passes in the ATL offense (over 12 YPR as a RB is exceptional) and bouncing plays to the outside as the CoP back. But all signs are pointing to McKinnon getting a crack at a high volume hybrid version of the Freeman and Coleman roles in ATL. Unfortunately, McKinnon is going to be the type of player I'm scared to pay the going rate for but also scared to see on an opponent's roster. 

 
I love the opportunity for receptions. The 49ers threw a lot of passes to RBs last year despite not having a back that really was suited for it. Now part of that may have been a lack of talent at WR and TE. However, not much was done to improve the WR/TE position all that much. I think he could be a PPR stud- if he can hold up.

 
He’s going to be huge in ppr. Carlos Hyde, who offered almost nothing in the passing game previously, saw 88 targets and turned it into a super inefficient 59/350/0. I read somewhere that he was near the top of the league in routes run for a rb as well. If McKinnon sees that volume he’s going to catch 65-70 passes (career catch rate of 74.3%). There’s even reason to believe he could draw more targets and catch more balls since he has much better hands and runs better routes than Hyde. We could see 65/450/3 as the floor in the passing game for JM. I’m also skeptical about his ability to be featured between the tackles for a whole season but that passing work is enormous in ppr.

 
It's easy to forget that Jerrick McKinnon was a college QB, albeit it in a quasi-wildcat type offense, and that he was learning a new position early in his career. While his ypc so far is not impressive, there have been a few "real" RBs that also took a season or two in the NFL before breaking the 4.0 mark. His size does not seem ideal for a bell-cow role but he's built very compactly and surprisingly strong. With that said he has not show to be a great between the tackles runner thus far. He's shown some flashed of brilliance due to his incredible athleticism, but he has not show to be a great NFL RB yet.

He has been hand-picked by a HC/OC that has had a boatload of success with getting the most from his RBs on an NFL level, and more importantly for us, while creating fantasy studs. His competition for carries/snaps is not every fierce right now with only UDFA Matt Brieda, Bucs castoff Jeremy Nichols, and a second year player that was cast aside during his rookie season Joe Willliams. The volume should be there for McKinnon, but Brieda did manage to force his way into the mix with Carlos Hyde last season and could be a factor if McKinnon does not run away with the job. 

The Shanahan offense generally funnels passes to it's RBs, which is an area where McKinnon excels so a top 10 RB season is far from out of reach for McKinnon in ppr leagues. With no real stars at the WR or TE position, it's hard to imagine McKinnon not being heavily targeted.

Early Projections:   215 carries 899 yards rushing, 6 rushing TDs, 61 receptions, 523 receiving yards, 4 receiving TDs

 
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Lot of expectations here for a breakout - a few words of caution.

1) After an impressive opening 2 games after Dalvin Cook's injury, McKinnon compiled a 109/380/1 rushing line.

2) He's never shown himself to be a TD producer.  While it's a mercurial statistic, I'd put the over/under on his overall TD production to be 7.

3) Very interesting career rushing splits for him when you look at his production on each side of the 50

His side: 254/1267 5.0 YPC
Opponents: 230/651 2.8 YPC

Compare that with Devonta Freeman who thrived under Shanahan (last 3 years).

His side: 342/1722 5.0 YPC
Opponents: 345/1273 3.7 YPC

But Freeman has been the far more effective and utilized goal line runner (76 carries inside the 10) to McKinnon (29 carries inside the 10).  McKinnon seems to struggle in an area of the field where drives bog down and he's questionable inside the 10.  As much as the 49ers paid him, he's going to be a projection and there are some red flags to how he's produced in MIN when given the opportunity that might make for a larger timeshare than his contract would suggest.

That said, his versatility and contract likely mean that his floor from a yardage perspective is going to be high.  At the same time, come closer to draft season, he'll be a fast riser and the potential for being overdrafted is significant (even past his current late 2nd ADP via FFC).

 
Dr. Octopus said:
He has not been hand-picked by a HC/OC that has had a boatload of success with getting the most from his RBs on an NFL level, and more importantly for us, while creating fantasy studs.
Is the not a typo here?

Very glad these threads are back

 
Strong play in ppr.  Most of my leagues are standard, and I don’t find him too exciting in that format.  Good RB3with upside, but not seeing a ton of TDs in that offense with their tough schedule.

 
As a Vikings fan I followed McKinnon's career pretty closely. 

He is an athletic phenom holding some combine records for RB such as the bench press (32 reps) and just good all around athlete as well.

He is a player who has needed to work on skill and technique for the RB position. He has made gradual improvements in his route running, catching, getting yards after contact and pass protecting each year. He played behind some very poor offensive lines of the Vikings that made it more difficult to judge him. He has had some minor injuries that have held him back from playing at a high level at times.

The Vikings did not seem to view him as a feature RB as they would use Matt Asiata and the Latavius Murray as the early down RB and especially at the goal line they have preferred a bigger RB than McKinnon. This isn't all size related either because McKinnon is such a great athlete. I think McKinnons vision reading defenses and blocking is only average as part of the reason he has always been used as part of a committee. I have no doubt about McKinnon being physically capable of being a featured RB, I am just not sure he processes plays quickly enough. He doesn't make defenders miss as frequently as I think he could if he was seeing and thinking about those opportunities more. His vision and ability to process will be put to the test in SF outside zone blocking scheme, which is primarily what the Vikings ran last season as well.

After quite a bit of discussion in this thread I arrived at some projections for McKinnon with the 49ers this year.

Using 2016 Devontae Freeman as the model for the opportunity for McKinnon would be

227 rushing attempts and 65 targets over 16 games or 14.2 rushing attempts and 4 targets on a per game basis.

The 49ers ran 1058 total plays last season with 3 different QB starting for 6 or more games. They passed the ball 607 times and ran the ball 408 times.

Carlos Hyde was heavily utilized last season with 240 rushing attempts and 88 targets despite Matt Breida also getting 105 rushing attempts and 36 targets as well.

I see total plays staying about the same, maybe a bit less and for rushing attempts to be slightly less based on McKinnon not being asked to run the ball quite as much as Hyde and also Garroppolo being his first season with the team last year and SF relying on the run game slightly less as they trust him more. So just to be simple about this 1020 total plays, 600 passing attempts and 400 rushing attempts with 26 sacks bringing the total plays up to 1026. The sacks based on Garoppolos 4.3% sack rate in his 6 games last year in the 6 games he played for the 49ers. McKinnons share of the rushing attempts would be 57% of the total.

Garoppolo ran the ball 3 times per game in the 5 games he started, he played in 6 games but only had 2 pass attempts in one of those games. So Garoppolo would run the ball 48 times at this rate over 16 games. Maybe that is a bit high, but that is the rate he was running the ball last year. He did not generate many yards rushing the ball however. This would be 12% of the rushing attempts.

This leaves Matt Breida (or Joe Thomas or both I suppose) with 125 rushing attempts.

The 65 targets that Freeman had in 2016 is very similar to what McKinnon has had the last two seasons with the Vikings. It is 10.8% of the market share of passing attempts.

At 4 ypc which is McKinnons career average this would be 227 rushing attempts for 908 yards. 65 targets at a career catch rate of 74% would be 48 receptions. With a career yards per reception rate of 6.9 this would be 333 yards. The TD are hard to predict but I will guess 6 TD two of those may be as a receiver.

Total 1241 yards 6 TD = 160 points in standard scoring leagues (RB 14 last season() and 208 points in PPR leagues.(RB 12 last season)

I recognize that some of these numbers such as the ypc and yards per reception are a bit below average for a RB, but that is what his career averages are so far over 4 seasons. So there is upside here. Several very good RB last year would have finished higher than this on a PPG basis such as Elliot who only played in 10 games at 20.5 points per game, so if he did that over 16 games he would have finished as the RB 3 instead of 12. Some other examples of this as well which would push McKinnon down to something like RB 15-21 depending on how well and how healthy the other RB do working from the assumption that they will also be able to play 16 games.

McKinnon did score 180 points in PPR leagues last season finishing at RB 17 so 208 points is only a modest increase from last season. RB 17 might be what to consider as his floor.

 
FF Ninja said:
I don't have the eyes of a scout nor the dedication to watch enough of his film to say why, but whether it's a lack of vision or lack of patience or something else, I'm officially worried he doesn't have what it takes to be a good between the tackles runner.
The fact Shanahan picked him up suggests he should have good vision. They (Shanahans and Kubiak) always manage to pick the guys who can find the running lanes in the ZBS. It's a prerequisite. 

 
The fact Shanahan picked him up suggests he should have good vision. They (Shanahans and Kubiak) always manage to pick the guys who can find the running lanes in the ZBS. It's a prerequisite. 
Only if you think Shanahan is some sort of elite talent scout. Veteran coaches and GMs regularly make bad free agent signings, trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. We're dealing with a rookie HC and a rookie GM who are acting like they are playing with monopoly money. I don't think the fact Shanahan picked him increases or decreases the odds of him being a good inside runner. I like Shanahan's offense so if it works out, the sky is the limit, but it very well may not work out. 

 
Only if you think Shanahan is some sort of elite talent scout. Veteran coaches and GMs regularly make bad free agent signings, trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. We're dealing with a rookie HC and a rookie GM who are acting like they are playing with monopoly money. I don't think the fact Shanahan picked him increases or decreases the odds of him being a good inside runner. I like Shanahan's offense so if it works out, the sky is the limit, but it very well may not work out. 
They're history suggests competence in finding running backs.

 
Only if you think Shanahan is some sort of elite talent scout. Veteran coaches and GMs regularly make bad free agent signings, trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. We're dealing with a rookie HC and a rookie GM who are acting like they are playing with monopoly money. I don't think the fact Shanahan picked him increases or decreases the odds of him being a good inside runner. I like Shanahan's offense so if it works out, the sky is the limit, but it very well may not work out. 
This may be a valid criticism in dynasty/keeper formats, but in redraft?  For whatever Mckinnon's flaws, it is hard to see him ceding a giant role to Breida/Joe Williams

 
They're history suggests competence in finding running backs.
Does it? Please point to that history. We don't even know what kind of influence Shanahan had on any personnel decisions before SF, as he was at best an OC and generally speaking the GM and HC have more influence on draft picks and free agents than coordinators. As for Kubiak, he had his share of misses in Houston. Ahman Green was a massive bust for one example. Steve Slaton broke a lot of long runs as a rookie, but also got stuffed a lot. His second year was a disaster. Foster, IMO, was just a very good talent. We don't even know if it was Kubiak who signed him to the practice squad. Believe it or not, general managers occasionally do their jobs. But with Rick Smith I sometimes wondered...

This may be a valid criticism in dynasty/keeper formats, but in redraft?  For whatever Mckinnon's flaws, it is hard to see him ceding a giant role to Breida/Joe Williams
If only I had addressed that in my post...  ;)

Taken directly from that post: "The volume alone should get him through this season as a quality fantasy start, but I fear he'll turn out to be a bad buy in dynasty leagues."

This is their second season now and last year's big moves worked out well even if you did not agree with them at the time.
Don't make me get back into the lost draft capital and wasted cap space that one deal (of which we must not speak) cost them! My point was that this is Shanahan's first team. I didn't mean that it was his first year with the team. Sorry for not clarifying better. But it is a little early to say their moves worked out well. Let's see the team make the playoffs once before we deem these moves to be a success. Remember, it was Shanahan's brilliance that orchestrated one of the most spectacular super bowl collapses of all time. 

FWIW, I don't dislike any of their players. Just the prices they've paid to acquire them. Lynch and Shanahan remind me of a newbie dynasty owner that takes over an orphaned team, low on young talent but rich with draft capital, and they immediately go to work selling off draft capital and veterans at 70 cents on the dollar to acquire "their players." You know the type. Sometimes that team even squeaks into the fantasy playoffs, but a better manager could've done more with that draft capital.

 
Does it? Please point to that history. We don't even know what kind of influence Shanahan had on any personnel decisions before SF, as he was at best an OC and generally speaking the GM and HC have more influence on draft picks and free agents than coordinators. As for Kubiak, he had his share of misses in Houston. Ahman Green was a massive bust for one example. Steve Slaton broke a lot of long runs as a rookie, but also got stuffed a lot. His second year was a disaster. Foster, IMO, was just a very good talent. We don't even know if it was Kubiak who signed him to the practice squad. Believe it or not, general managers occasionally do their jobs. But with Rick Smith I sometimes wondered...
ok you win. We'll see how he does. 

(nested quotes are cool too)

 
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I'm not trying to win anything in this thread (which is good bc there's nothing to be won). You were just making unsubstantiated claims and drawing conclusions from them as if they were facts.
Sitting here wondering how much a HC has to say in personnel decisions counts as substantiating? I forfeit. 

All I know is, the dang club of Shanahan and Kubiak always have a back score points. Is it the system or they can find running backs? IDK, you tell me.

 
If only I had addressed that in my post...  ;)

Taken directly from that post: "The volume alone should get him through this season as a quality fantasy start, but I fear he'll turn out to be a bad buy in dynasty leagues."
Ah yes in your initial post.  Sorry

 
This may be a valid criticism in dynasty/keeper formats, but in redraft?  For whatever Mckinnon's flaws, it is hard to see him ceding a giant role to Breida/Joe Williams
He's great for redraft, but in dynasty I would sell to get any of the more proven guys.  

 
Sitting here wondering how much a HC has to say in personnel decisions counts as substantiating? I forfeit. 

All I know is, the dang club of Shanahan and Kubiak always have a back score points. Is it the system or they can find running backs? IDK, you tell me.
I'm not the one trying to substantiate anything. I'm merely pointing out where a reasonable doubt belongs. So no, wondering does not count as substantiating. It wasn't intended to. Doesn't it seem possible that a general manager was the one who signed Arian Foster as an undrafted FA? And doesn't it seem possible that Shanahan, as an OC, had very little say over the GM and HC in the personnel decisions in ATL? And wasn't Freeman on the team before Shanahan even came to the team? One thing I can substantiate is that Houston had some crap at RB before Arian Foster showed up. Ron Dayne, washed up Ahman Green, Wali Lundy, a fluke season from Slaton, a terrible season from Slaton...

I don't think Kubiak was ever a running back whisperer. What he did do, though, was coax some impressive stats out of Schaub. Then Shanahan coaxed a very impressive season out of Ryan who has mostly been meh before and after that (outside of some volume assisted seasons). Something to keep in mind is that the 2016 Falcons had a really good offensive line (I want to say they were #1 or #2 for PFF that year). The SF OL doesn't project to be that good this year. That doesn't bode well for a running back with questionable vision.

I looked up Shanahan's history and he had two years in Washington w/o any productive RBs until Morris showed up. In CLE, he got 4.1 ypc out of Crowell (who did better w/o him the next season) and in his first season with ATL, he got 4.0 ypc out of Freeman. Bottom line, I wouldn't expect a miracle here. If McKinnon tears it up this year it'll be on his own merit, not bc of the system or OL. 

 
My incredibly low level analysis is that it *seemed* everytime I saw him get the ball (I didn't watch a ton), there were defenders on his tail before he even got the ball from the QB. I don't know how much he got stuffed more or less than other backs with similar YPC problems, but on those plays I saw I don't care if it was Walter Payton back there. 

I love that he was handpicked and is going to be the guy. My expectations are high if he stays healthy. If he can find the endzone a tad more than most are projecting, like 12 or more total, then he becomes a mid RB1 and pays big. I'd call his floor high end RB2. 

 
Since these threads haven’t been around in awhile it should be noted that this wasn’t the place to have ### for tat arguments, one-liners and poo’ing in general. I crap in a lot of threads myself so I’m definitely not trying to brow beat here BUT if you don’t have a decent explanation for your position, even if hyperbole, this really isn’t the thread for it. 

Once I finish my projections for the 49ers, I’ll be adding a write up tonight. 

 
*Before I go into numbers I’d like to give a brief summary of how I arrived where I did. I’m a big proponent of tracing the coaching lineage as their playcalling often dictates reads and definitively dictates run to pass. Yardage totals I tend to average against career numbers then combine that with the coaching averages and then finally look to see if there was a trend or repeater in the offense that seems to be a total that the coach would deem ideal. I also do not project less than 16 games unless there is a suspension. I’m not a wizard and injuries are wholly unpredictable.

When I did my projections I revisited the last 7 years of Kyle Shanahan offenses. In San Francisco he has full autonomy to run it how he pleases and it seems that he shares a lot of control with John Lynch as far as his personnel choices. Last year was an odd, up and down year for the younger Shanahan. The offense was lackluster with Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard under center and then the Patriots did the 49ers a favor and traded them Jimmy Garoppolo who was uber-efficient in his time with San Francisco. There were many oddities that I haven’t come across in many years of NFL offenses I’ve looked at so far this offseason. Carlos Hyde, Kyle Juszcyk and Matt Breida had 166 targets combined, a stat I had to triple check to make sure was correct. 

In looking at Shanahan offenses it is clear he is not looking to force square pegs in round holes though he does skew pass heavy as 3 of 7 years were 60% pass to run and 5 of 7 were above 57%. The exceptions being his lone year in Cleveland with awful talent and the year RG3 looked like the second coming of Vick. Even so, the lowest running attempt output was 400 carries. Because of this it is hard for me to not be a big time bull on Jerick McKinnon. 5 of 7 years RB1’s in Shanahan’s offenses had above 54% of the carries with 3 of those seasons being at higher than 61%. I also want to make a statement about McKinnon’s weight as a concern for him being a bell cow. Steve Slaton carried the ball 268 times as a 195lb back in Shanahans offense, Devonta Freeman carried it 265 and 225 times as a 205-210 lb back and McKinnon comes in at 209-215 lbs. I have little to no concern that this will affect his workload as long as he stays durable which he mostly has been through his NFL and collegiate career. So without further ado:

Jerick McKinnon

231att 924yd 4.0 ypc 5td

65tgt 48rec 384yd 3td

That would put him at 226.8 pts in PPR which would have been good for RB8 last season. I believe this is his floor. If the offense is high octane or if Shanahan decideds to ground it more I could see him hitting 250 carries and/or 80 targets. Also with a little variation to his YPC the yardage starts to mount up. I honestly don’t know how you couldn’t be excited about McKinnon, both his talent and his prospects. If you are bearish on McKinnon though I suggest you load up on Breida, Williams and McNichols. There are a whole lot of RB touches to account for even in mediocre to bad Shanahan offenses. 

Edited: correcting point total for PPR.

 
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I think your calculations above give him 227 ppr points which I agree except his rec total maybe even higher. 
Correct. Sorry I get a bit loopy on nights and forgot to add the receptions in.

Edit to add: that would put him at RB8 with upside. I do not think late 2nd is a reach right now, especially being able to stack the whole backfield if you want to for practically nothing later in the draft.

 
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Prorating Devonta Freeman's two years with Shanahan to 16 games:

254-1102-11; 66-537-3 = 314pts, 19.6ppg

Given the power of that offense with Garoppolo and everything we've heard so far think that's a good starting place.  Scheme is everything for RBs, Shanahan wanted McKinnon badly for his scheme, and Shanahan has a history of turning RBs into gold.

 
Four seasons in the league, best used prior to last season as a change of pace player. He's always been a good receiving back but has only one career game with twenty carries. Much more is expected this season, but can he hold up as an every down player? Can he be a fantasy success even without getting a heavy rushing load.

Bumping back to the front page for more quality responses.

 
My incredibly low level analysis is that it *seemed* everytime I saw him get the ball (I didn't watch a ton), there were defenders on his tail before he even got the ball from the QB. I don't know how much he got stuffed more or less than other backs with similar YPC problems, but on those plays I saw I don't care if it was Walter Payton back there. 
This is a fair observation, especially in the game against the Lions around Thanksgiving.

I don't know if it was McKinnon or other players on the offense giving away tells to the defense, or if they just sold out every time he was in the backfield, but he got stuffed like a Turkey in that game, and the Vikings seemed to lean on Murray a lot more after that game for the rest of the season.

While I agree with your view that these were dead plays, I don't think McKinnon was entirely without fault. There may have been something he or the Vikings were doing that tipped their hand. The Lions know how to play the Vikings very well.

There were some other games where this happened as well, just not as much as that Lions game.

 
He's exactly the kind of guy who I'll refuse to draft. Then, he'll have a career year and I'll draft him next year when he disappoints.

Garrapolo is allegedly the next coming of Dan Marino and McKinnon fits the bill of catching a ton of passes. Passes the eyeball test for me. Have the hunch someone else will like him more than I do.

Could do worse at your RB2, that's for sure. Don't really see the 49ers dominating games but can see them airing it out quite a bit.

 
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Prorating Devonta Freeman's two years with Shanahan to 16 games:

254-1102-11; 66-537-3 = 314pts, 19.6ppg

Given the power of that offense with Garoppolo and everything we've heard so far think that's a good starting place.  Scheme is everything for RBs, Shanahan wanted McKinnon badly for his scheme, and Shanahan has a history of turning RBs into gold.
The 49ers wrs are pretty awful, and this will be Garoppolo’s first full year as a starter. I could be wrong but I don’t think the line is great either. I think they’ll be in the lower half of the league in offense. I do agree that there’s a lot of touches to be had though. He really looks a lot like a Duke Johnson or Telvin Coleman role player more than a 3 down back but they are paying him like one. I still think he’s a sell in dynasty as I just don’t see a special player on the football field. 

 
Prorating Devonta Freeman's two years with Shanahan to 16 games:

254-1102-11; 66-537-3 = 314pts, 19.6ppg

Given the power of that offense with Garoppolo and everything we've heard so far think that's a good starting place.  Scheme is everything for RBs, Shanahan wanted McKinnon badly for his scheme, and Shanahan has a history of turning RBs into gold.
If thats the case... Colemans second year (skipping the rookie campaign for NFL learning purposes) with Shanny and that would sit at 1,158 combined yards and 13.5 TDs with a full 16 games.

What round is Breida going in? :mellow:

 
The 49ers wrs are pretty awful, and this will be Garoppolo’s first full year as a starter. I could be wrong but I don’t think the line is great either. I think they’ll be in the lower half of the league in offense.
They were #12 in total offense last season with Garoppolo only starting 5 games, have added 2 upgrades on the o-line, got Garcon back and are entering the 2nd year in Shanahan's offense. Even without much improvement, this offense is primed for a top 10 season.

 
Admittedly, this isn't in depth analysis, but I get a bit of a Lamar Miller vibe from McKinnon this year. I wonder if he'll be able to handle a heavy workload, when he's had plenty of durability issues with a relatively small one, and if he'll wear down even if he does stay healthy.

I doubt he'll see as big a workload as Hyde saw last year. They really worked him, prior to the Garoppolo deal. 275 touches feels like a ceiling to me. Matt Brieda is also a pretty solid RB himself, and should have seen more work last season. 

He's currently ranked RB14 and I agree with that. Solid RB2, but I'm not expecting him to be Freeman.

 
Not touching him in redrafts at his current ADP unless I'm desperate for a RB, which usually doesn't happen.

He's been around too long to not have already have broken out and he's never done it for a full season.

Way too many red flags for a 2nd round ADP.

 
Not touching him in redrafts at his current ADP unless I'm desperate for a RB, which usually doesn't happen.

He's been around too long to not have already have broken out and he's never done it for a full season.

Way too many red flags for a 2nd round ADP.
I agree with that take. That early, I want someone proven and after two picks (maybe three in smaller leagues, where zero RB is a lot more attractive anyway) you can't really be RB desperate yet. Plenty of good, proven players left and there'll be plenty of unproven, high upside RBs availabe later as well.  

 
Had opportunities in MN to be the feature RB but couldn't run away with the job.  2nd ADP seems too high imo.

 

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