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Patrick Mahomes Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

Ryan Hester

Footballguy
As Jason Wood laid out in his Jerick McKinnon Spotlight...

After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a main feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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Patrick Mahomes, QB - Kansas City Chiefs

Despite playing sparingly in his rookie season, Mahomes showed enough promise that the team decided to move on from Alex Smith and usher in the Mahomes era. The 10th overall pick in the 2017 draft, Mahomes has the tools to excel in the NFL. But will he show the intangibles required to be a great starting quarterback? For fantasy purposes, will he be competent enough at reading defenses to take advantage of the mismatches his excellent supporting cast are sure to provide? Will his athletic ability provide a floor and ceiling to make him a solid return on investment?

Enough questions - give me some answers!

 
will be on many  all of my fantasy teams at his current ADP....which I have a feeling will climb up considerably once the season gets closer and he gets a sniff in preseason games.....possibly the best set of weapons in the league...immense talent and leadership....and probably not getting enough credit yet for his running ability....will he have some turnovers....sure...but not a huge penalty in most leagues....but the turnovers and an unsteady defense may also lead to him having to make up for both by slinging it around the yard to some serious take it to the house at any moment weapons and outscoring teams....he will have some monster weeks...I'm a little concerned about the almost unbelievably brutal schedule they have the first 6 weeks but he will need to perform well right off the bus for them to have a chance in those games....they could be behind in some of those games....I'm buying as many shares as I can get as I think this is the perfect spot for some serious ROI....

 
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Forget his immense talent and just consider his coaching staff and supporting cast.  Reid produces fantasy studs and he could have the best supporting cast in the league.  He has been given the keys to a Ferrari and even with growing pains, he should easily be a top 10 QB.

 
Forget his immense talent and just consider his coaching staff and supporting cast.  Reid produces fantasy studs and he could have the best supporting cast in the league.  He has been given the keys to a Ferrari and even with growing pains, he should easily be a top 10 QB.
He is definitely set-up for success for fantasy football. As for top 10, that is tough just because of how many other QBs have a chance for good numbers: Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Brady, Watson, Big Ben, Cam, Cousins, Wentz, Winston, Rivers, Stafford, Jimmy G, Luck, Goff and Mariota all 17 of those guys could reasonably be top 10 QB. 

 
He is definitely set-up for success for fantasy football. As for top 10, that is tough just because of how many other QBs have a chance for good numbers: Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Brady, Watson, Big Ben, Cam, Cousins, Wentz, Winston, Rivers, Stafford, Jimmy G, Luck, Goff and Mariota all 17 of those guys could reasonably be top 10 QB. 
true....and if Mahomes is being drafted at the back end of that list or even after.....it's a great spot for some ROI...

 
I expect that Mahomes will be one of those guys where opinions are all over the map....some will over indulge on the kool aid and the hype....others will be old school wait and see show it to me first guys and will pass on him this year....have a feeling though that in most leagues there will be at least one guy that will jump on him much sooner than most expect, not wanting to miss out....(Ref)....leaving the guys that were waiting to try and maximize value on him later out to dry.....

kinda reminds me of the attitude about his teammate Hill heading into last year.....some were sold on his talent after the first year....others thought he was gadget guy and wanted to see him do it again before they believed...the sold guys got some value in most leagues....

 
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I love the point made by @Mookie about the supporting cast in KC. Remember when this offense was as "blah" as it got? You could argue that was the case as few as two years ago at this time. The 2016 Chiefs ended the season led by Travis Kelce (85), Tyreek Hill (61), and Jeremy Maclin/Chris Conley (44 each) in receptions.

Heading into that season, no one knew who Hill was (other than knowing his off-the-field history), and Maclin was still an underappreciated (and, therefore, "unsexy") player. This team has gone through a significant turnaround at the skill positions and still has Andy Reid at the helm. To me, Mahomes has to be wildly underwhelming to hold this offense down.

Do we have any dissenting opinions out there? Or are we all that much smarter than a fantasy community drafting him at QB16 right now? What are the naysayers leaning on when they keep him out of the top-14? Or top-12?

 
Not sure if naysayer is the correct term, but my quarterback ranking for Mahomes is among the lowest of the staffers. Mahomes definitely has a  abundant positives, but he has yet to play. In his rookie season, he only played in the mostly meaningless game 17. He is a talented guy, surrounded by a plethora of options and he has an excellent coaching staff, but he has yet to perform.

Reviewing the yearly  projections of Dodds, Henry, Tremblay and Woods, the difference between their QB8 and QB20 is less than 2.0 fantasy points per game. Given that expected small difference, it seems prudent to err on the side of been there and done that.

All that said, if you prefer the potential that Mahomes definitely has, go for it. He has the system and tools to provide value at his current ADP.

 
Stinkin Ref you have some really good thoughts in your posts but a little punctuation and capatilization would go a long ways.  Not trying to be rude just a suggestion.

....

 
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I guess I'll be a slight naysayer. I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good as Alex Smith was last year. Smith was on fire last year, with incredible rate stats. He still didn't have very many attempts, and the Chiefs scored a higher percentage of TD's passing than they normally have. Mahomes will also likely have double(or more) turnovers than Smith had, as Smith has always been great at avoiding mistakes, which has been a big reason his teams usually make the playoffs.

The supporting cast got upgraded with Sammy Watkins, and Hill and Hunt are likely still improving. However, QB is extremely deep. Last year was a bit of an outlier, as Rodgers, Watson, and Luck all missed major time, Brees and Ryan had inordinate down years, and Garoppolo didn't start until late in the year. 

Mahomes feels a bit boom or bust to me. I just don't see the point in taking a risk at QB with so many quality options. Ideally, he's a high-end QB2, or QBBC guy. I think QB16 is pretty fair, but there is some upside there.

 
I guess I'll be a slight naysayer. I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good as Alex Smith was last year. Smith was on fire last year, with incredible rate stats. He still didn't have very many attempts, and the Chiefs scored a higher percentage of TD's passing than they normally have. Mahomes will also likely have double(or more) turnovers than Smith had, as Smith has always been great at avoiding mistakes, which has been a big reason his teams usually make the playoffs.

The supporting cast got upgraded with Sammy Watkins, and Hill and Hunt are likely still improving. However, QB is extremely deep. Last year was a bit of an outlier, as Rodgers, Watson, and Luck all missed major time, Brees and Ryan had inordinate down years, and Garoppolo didn't start until late in the year. 

Mahomes feels a bit boom or bust to me. I just don't see the point in taking a risk at QB with so many quality options. Ideally, he's a high-end QB2, or QBBC guy. I think QB16 is pretty fair, but there is some upside there.
Im not sure anybody is expecting Smith like top 3-5 finish....but top 10 is solid ROI....in an extreme example, I guess it really comes down to are you willing to pass on whatever you think is your QB1 a few rounds earlier to add a better piece to your RB/WR/TE stable and roll with him as your QB1...

 
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I’ll add one thing as well...people give ZERO credit to his week 17 performance against Denver....which from a fantasy perspective is very easy to overlook (especially since he didnt toss a TD although he had a rushing TD called back because he stepped out at the one on a dive to the pylon)...but he played very well in that game against the Bronco defense starters ALL GAME (granted not super motivated)....and he did so with all the KC backups on the oline and skill positions....no Kelce, no Hill, etc...look it up, Albert freakinWilson had a career day like 10-150 plus or something....he played so well on the road in his first start and KC built a lead that they took him out and put in Tyler Bray....a couple turnovers by Bray or some #### later and the score is tied...Reid puts Mahomes back in on the final drive and he leads them to a game winning drive against the dreaded “no fly zone”...take it for what its worth, but if you think anything about Von Miller, Talib, or Gary Harris as defenders (probably 3 of the best in the game), they all said after the game that Mahomes was the real deal....

 
Not sure if naysayer is the correct term, but my quarterback ranking for Mahomes is among the lowest of the staffers. Mahomes definitely has a  abundant positives, but he has yet to play. In his rookie season, he only played in the mostly meaningless game 17. He is a talented guy, surrounded by a plethora of options and he has an excellent coaching staff, but he has yet to perform.

Reviewing the yearly  projections of Dodds, Henry, Tremblay and Woods, the difference between their QB8 and QB20 is less than 2.0 fantasy points per game. Given that expected small difference, it seems prudent to err on the side of been there and done that.

All that said, if you prefer the potential that Mahomes definitely has, go for it. He has the system and tools to provide value at his current ADP.
Hey Holloway....was wondering if you could expand on the second paragraph a little...especially the last sentence...kind of lost you there with the been there done that part....

 
Lott's Fingertip said:
I believe he is saying that if Mahomes is included in a large tier of QBs, it is more prudent to draft one of the proven (been there done that) QBs than Mahomes.
that makes sense now...thanks

eta: but I don't necessarily agree....

 
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Thinking about it more, Mahomes is very similar to Eli this year. Both have one obvious ?- for Mahomes it is youth, Eli is advanced age. Both have a deep supporting cast that are being taken high in drafts. Projecting it out, either the QBs are really undervalued or their casts are overvalued. 

 
Side topic- has anybody performed some shedule analysis to determine which qbs best pair with Mahomes?

 
Thinking about it more, Mahomes is very similar to Eli this year. Both have one obvious ?- for Mahomes it is youth, Eli is advanced age. Both have a deep supporting cast that are being taken high in drafts. Projecting it out, either the QBs are really undervalued or their casts are overvalued. 
Likely the casts are being overvalued in both cases, even if the QB turns out to be good.  

Any tme you have two guys with an uncertain distribution of targets (Watkins/Hill, or Lewis/Henry for instance), fantasy drafters will draft on the upside chance that the one they get will be the one getting 60+% of the pie.  This means the combined draft value has baked in already a 120% or more expectation of actual production.  

The QB is being drafted based on the presumed 100% production, because the QB ranks arent differentiating which target is getting which passes, so the total projection on the targets doesnt factor in individual upside.

 
Last year, Jared Goff saved my season.  I was one of the unlucky Aaron Rodgers owners and had taken the risk to fly blindly without a back-up QB.  Figured I'd stream during the bye week.  And so, in my sadness in the aftermath of his injury...I looked to the WW to see if there was anyone there to provide any hope for me.  And there was Goff.

Now, I may have gotten lucky.  He'd just come off the SEA/JAX combo of defenses which made him look like he might be regressing back to 2016 levels.  But his first 4 games had been extremely encouraging.  So I picked him up and really didn't miss too much of a beat.

How this applies to Mahomes is this:

There simply is a glut of QB's that from one week to the next can be fantasy worthy.  And consistently too.

Rodgers
Brady
Big Ben
Wilson
Brees
Cam
Watson
Rivers
Wentz
Cousins
Stafford
Goff
Garrapollo
Ryan
Carr
Dak
Smith
Luck

I mean - simply put, there is no shortage.  Even below this tier, there are guys like Winston, Mariota.  Bottomline is that there likely will be attractive (or at least passable) options on the waiver wire.  We won't know what Mahomes is until September at the earliest, but is his 2018 upside better than any of the upsides of the 18 QB's listed above?  It's possible, but QB has always been about waiting for value.  And there has never been a better time to wait than now - even if you're high on the guy.

 
Stinkin Ref said:
Im not sure anybody is expecting Smith like top 3-5 finish....but top 10 is solid ROI....in an extreme example, I guess it really comes down to are you willing to pass on whatever you think is your QB1 a few rounds earlier to add a better piece to your RB/WR/TE stable and roll with him as your QB1...
It could be, but having QB9-12 is not a real advantage over most teams you'll play. There's also a few other QBs that will be drafted in the same range that will have top 10 potential as well.

He surely has a lot going for him, but it seems everyone just wants to ignore any bust potential he has. It's not like every first round NFL QB pans out.

 
travdogg said:
I guess I'll be a slight naysayer. I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good as Alex Smith was last year. Smith was on fire last year, with incredible rate stats. He still didn't have very many attempts, and the Chiefs scored a higher percentage of TD's passing than they normally have. Mahomes will also likely have double(or more) turnovers than Smith had, as Smith has always been great at avoiding mistakes, which has been a big reason his teams usually make the playoffs.

The supporting cast got upgraded with Sammy Watkins, and Hill and Hunt are likely still improving. However, QB is extremely deep. Last year was a bit of an outlier, as Rodgers, Watson, and Luck all missed major time, Brees and Ryan had inordinate down years, and Garoppolo didn't start until late in the year. 

Mahomes feels a bit boom or bust to me. I just don't see the point in taking a risk at QB with so many quality options. Ideally, he's a high-end QB2, or QBBC guy. I think QB16 is pretty fair, but there is some upside there.
With the depth at an I'd take Mahomes before a lot of the other qbs and back him up with a solid player if needed. It's all about upside at q in redraft. 

 
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Mahomes is overrated in general, IMO, especially in redraft leagues. Expecting him to put up Alex Smith-type numbers (who had a career year) this season is quite a stretch. I believe Mahomes is going to be at least a mild disappointment this season in regards to how he's viewed right now.

The good news is Mahomes is in an excellent situation & I'm somewhat bullish on his dynasty prospects.

 
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The guy's a loser. No talent, sponge of an arm, weak minded and just all around bust.  Draft him at your own risk.

(Whew, hopin all the guys in my league believe all that crap and let Mahomes fall to the ninth. I scoop up the steal of the draft for the next 3yrs in my dynasty league. He is the real deal and will be fantasy gold for the next several years at KC. Mark it down.

 
Don’t get me wrong, I like Mahomes a lot and think he will be good in fantasy and reality. But the hype on him right now seems a bit ridiculous. I think I might have posted something similar in the Trubisky thread but what’s the real difference between them? 

Trubisky will be in a similarly good offense (IMO), with excellent weapons and play calling putting him in a position to maximise his talents. You can argue he was a better QB prospect coming out (and was drafted accordingly). The Bears have one of the softest schedules in the league this year. Trubisky also has a full NFL season under his belt and already showed some excellent ability last year in difficult circumstances. Better offensive line in Chicago too.

Yet there isn’t much excitement for Trubisky compared to Mahomes (even in dynasty). Sure, people think the Bears will improve but they generally seem to doubt Trubisky’s upside. He’s basically priced at his floor right now, whereas Mahomes is prices close to his upside, particularly in redraft. It doesn’t make sense to me. 

All things considered, I’m pretty confident Trubisky will have a better fantasy season this year than Mahomes and I’d for sure rather own him in dynasty. Trubisky is the most undervalued QB in dynasty at the moment IMO and that will change quickly. 

 
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I like the point about Trubisky, @RushHour. I think he will be a popular backup option by the time the draft comes around. 

I’ve been bullish on mahomes from the start of the offseason. I hadn’t drafted him anywhere, as he went off the board earlier than I was willing to go for a qb, but have acquired him in a couple dynasty leagues. One of them I traded dak for mahomes- which met some criticism in the dyno trade thread (and a couple supporters.) I agree the hype has picked up steam, and I probably wouldn’t be trying to pick him up at this point in the offseason. It’s hard to find a clear advantage at qb unless you find a Rodgers or Brees, but a lot of those guys mentioned as possible top 10 qbs won’t be around in 2 years. 

 
Last year, Jared Goff saved my season.  I was one of the unlucky Aaron Rodgers owners and had taken the risk to fly blindly without a back-up QB.  Figured I'd stream during the bye week.  And so, in my sadness in the aftermath of his injury...I looked to the WW to see if there was anyone there to provide any hope for me.  And there was Goff.

Now, I may have gotten lucky.  He'd just come off the SEA/JAX combo of defenses which made him look like he might be regressing back to 2016 levels.  But his first 4 games had been extremely encouraging.  So I picked him up and really didn't miss too much of a beat.

How this applies to Mahomes is this:

There simply is a glut of QB's that from one week to the next can be fantasy worthy.  And consistently too.

I mean - simply put, there is no shortage.  Even below this tier, there are guys like Winston, Mariota.  Bottomline is that there likely will be attractive (or at least passable) options on the waiver wire.  We won't know what Mahomes is until September at the earliest, but is his 2018 upside better than any of the upsides of the 18 QB's listed above?  It's possible, but QB has always been about waiting for value.  And there has never been a better time to wait than now - even if you're high on the guy.
This is why I read these threads and respond to them sometimes. Getting prepared for my 2018 draft. I am waiting for Mahomes. I would like to get him after round 3 in my dynasty draft. But I'm not sure he will be there at pick 28 which will 4 picks into Round 3 for my 12 team league. Someone I'm sure will snatch him up, (back-up QB's go early in our draft for some reason) before then. But I like the reasoning here and it appears sound IMHO. Thanks for the note Dirty.

 
typical rookie/first time starter growing pains - startling plays made, glorious TD passes, mixed in with too many  boneheaded mistakes at the worst times..wash/rinse/repeat.we've seen this movie before.I'll pass.too many other proven QBs to choose from..

Vegas oddsmakers have the o/u for win totals for the Chiefs set at 7.5..they were 10-6 last year.draw your own conclusions, but it basically means they're going to win far fewer games in 2018.

MJD was on NFL Network talking about Hunt, specifically how well Hunt will do while facing 8-man fronts all year long..it's a good comment, it's what KC is likely to see early and often.

 
I’ll add one thing as well...people give ZERO credit to his week 17 performance against Denver....which from a fantasy perspective is very easy to overlook (especially since he didnt toss a TD although he had a rushing TD called back because he stepped out at the one on a dive to the pylon)...but he played very well in that game against the Bronco defense starters ALL GAME (granted not super motivated)....and he did so with all the KC backups on the oline and skill positions....no Kelce, no Hill, etc...look it up, Albert freakinWilson had a career day like 10-150 plus or something....he played so well on the road in his first start and KC built a lead that they took him out and put in Tyler Bray....a couple turnovers by Bray or some #### later and the score is tied...Reid puts Mahomes back in on the final drive and he leads them to a game winning drive against the dreaded “no fly zone”...take it for what its worth, but if you think anything about Von Miller, Talib, or Gary Harris as defenders (probably 3 of the best in the game), they all said after the game that Mahomes was the real deal....
Game snaps week 17 Chiefs at Broncos

Von - 52%

Harris - 23%

Talib - 15%

Darian Stewart - 35%

Simmons - DNP

Wolff - DNP

Ray - DNP

I wouldn’t rely on week 17 saying he played against the Broncos starters ALL GAME.  The only major defensive player to play significant snaps was Marshall and his 77% is still a reduction from his 100%.  Add the fact that the Broncos had nothing to play for, actually a lot of reasons to lose, and had been getting destroyed the second half of the season.  I think Reid is going to make Mahomes successful but he has yet to play a real starting defense  

 
interesting to back and read some of the posts in this thread...as expected opinions were all over the map....but one side clearly got it right.....what has been more impressive is that overall KC has navigated the brutal early 6 game schedule at a 5-0 clip so far....and in reviewing even the "expert" projections here at FBG....Mahomes is on pace destroy/double those up....

 

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