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D.J. Moore Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

Daniel Simpkins

Daniel Simpkins

Footballguy
As Jason Wood laid out in his Jerick McKinnon Spotlight ...

After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a main feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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D.J. Moore WR- Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have not been able to find that true number one wideout, despite investing relatively high draft capital in Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. Carolina has once again used a first-round pick to select D.J. Moore. Will Moore finally be the one who defies disappointment? Is Moore's style more consistent with the new breed of NFL number one wide receiver? Will Norv Turner's offense be a good fit for Moore's skills? Will Moore be the best rookie wideout for fantasy purposes in this class? 

Enough questions - give me some answers!

 
 From a team/offense perspective its a match made in heaven.  From a fantasy perspective (redraft) stay away.   For starters he is obviously a rookie, on a offense that has a lot of mouths to feed (Samuels, Cmac, Olsen, Funchess, Torrey smith) and an offense that wants to pound the ball.  I really think 60 catches would be the absolute best case scenario here but I wouldnt even count on that.

 
Right now, he might be passing option #4 on a run first offense.  That, being a rookie WR, Cam's inaccuracy, and Cam's tendency to tuck and run all put big cracks in his ceiling in year 1.   

 
Looking at the upside with rose colored glasses, if Moore is good and emerges within the context of being a rookie, is it a stretch to think that Cam will lock onto him? For better or worse I think it's totally possible he does lock onto him. If so, he may be worth picking up in redraft. Going around the 10th/11th in the MFL10s I've been doing. Not a bad price. I don't know that he will not be the #1 option in the passing game. I agree there are mouths to feed but he may climb to the top of the list.

 
It would be shocking with his QB and offensive strategy that he becomes a FF factor this year. As been noted he is going to be way down the pecking order and Cam’s barnyard accuracy doesn’t play to his strengths. Over 700 yards would be considered a great season for him based on my expectations.

 
I actually feel the opposite. In standard, he is going as WR49 in the 11th-12th round. For the first WR taken in the draft or really any 1st round WR, that is good value. Now granted that it's not a pass friendly offense DJ is competing with a RB, a 33 year old TE coming off a broken foot and Devin Funchess who has mostly been dismissed and ignored by the football community for the last few years. I think at DJ's price tag, he is a buy. 

 
I'm not seeing Moore at all. End of draft flier for me. He's the #4 option in the passing game, on a very run heavy team. 600 yards would be a solid season for him, with a couple TD's sprinkled in. I like him a lot long term, but Olsen is still the go to guy in this passing game, Funchess showed a lot as a TD scorer last year, and McCaffrey is a huge mismatch. Don't see Moore out targeting any of them.

 
Why is everyone so sure a 33 year old TE that was rumored to retire is going to be so good? And I’ve liked Funchess more than consensus recently but that’s because the consensus was DF was inferior to Kelvin Benjamin. Comparing DJ to DF though? Give me DJ Moore.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Why is everyone so sure a 33 year old TE that was rumored to retire is going to be so good? And I’ve liked Funchess more than consensus recently but that’s because the consensus was DF was inferior to Kelvin Benjamin. Comparing DJ to DF though? Give me DJ Moore.
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Olsen is just that good and Cam leans on him heavily.  I get what you are saying about value in the draft but what reasonably can you expect from a rookie wr?  I would rather take a flier on a running back at that point in the draft.  For this season IMO he has no value whatsoever.   Overall I think Moore will be better than DF but as of now he has more experience with the Nfl and Cam and that is a huge advantage as we stand today.  Absolute best case is something like 50-60 catches and that is with a lot of things breaking right for DJ.  If you think that improves your fantasy team then go for it. 

 
pantherclub said:
Olsen is just that good and Cam leans on him heavily.  I get what you are saying about value in the draft but what reasonably can you expect from a rookie wr?  I would rather take a flier on a running back at that point in the draft.  For this season IMO he has no value whatsoever.   Overall I think Moore will be better than DF but as of now he has more experience with the Nfl and Cam and that is a huge advantage as we stand today.  Absolute best case is something like 50-60 catches and that is with a lot of things breaking right for DJ.  If you think that improves your fantasy team then go for it. 
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I’m getting my RBs earlier this year. Probably going RB heavy in a lot of drafts so who you take as late round flyer are somewhat roster dependent. I get how good Olsen has been but he’s at the age even great TEs start to fall off and we’ve seen what that foot injury can do to even younger, lighter receivers. I’m not too high on Olsen. I think DJ can be a WR2. Every year we see some rookie WRs have success.

 
Also here is some food for thought on Cam Newton.

He isn't a high volume QB and he isn't the most accurate, but I'd argue he has made the most of his pass catchers. 

1. Greg Olsen. Before playing with Cam Newton, his 16 game average was 50/511/5 and best season was 60/612/8. His 16 game average with Cam is 69/866/5 and best season was 77/1104/7. Now his years with the Bears were spent playing with awful QB play but it is hard to argue Cam hasn't gotten the best out of Greg Olsen.

2. Ted Ginn. In Ginn's 8 years not with Cam Newton, he average 29/378/1. In his 3 seasons with Carolina, he averaged 45/682/6. No matter what we think of Ginn or others Panthers WRs at the time, we can't argue that Newton got the most out of the former 9th over all  draft pick.

3. CMc. The 8th overall pick in the draft and if you look at his rushing numbers, it is almost hard to understand how that happend: 435 yards, 2 TDs, 3.7 YPC. His rushing definitely didn't paint the picture of a great NFL runner. However, he was known as a pass catcher and Cam made sure he delivered on that: 80/651/5. There were a lot of concerns if Cam could use a RB in the passing game, many hated the fit. I'd say given how bad CMc was as a rusher, Cam seemed to get the most out of him as a receiver. 

4. Devin Funchess. It seems the fantasy community has forgotten how much they hated this draft pick, hated his profile and hated his performance for the first few years of his career. He's better than Kelvin Benjamin, but that's a very low benchmark. A 23 year old Devin Funchess got thrown into a WR1 role midseason and puts up 63/841/8. Maybe now many think Funchess is a really good emerging WR, but I think Cam deserves some credit for it. 

5. Kelvin Benjamin. The Wizard of Oz of fantasy football. He looks so big and imposing, but once we pulled the curtain back there was nothing impressive. Why did we ever think he was good? Because Cam turned an overrated rookie WR into a producer (73/1008/9). The stat line made him look like an emerging star, but 3 years later he would be traded away. 

6. Steve Smith. 16 game average in Carolina before Cam: 73/1053/6.  16 game average in Carolina with Cam: 72/1104/5. So Cam didn't improve Smith's play, but he was able to keep the 32-34 year old WR right in line with his career averages. 

Can anyone make a case that Cam Newton doesn't get the best out of his weapons?

 
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Like the player, but the destination is possibly the worst, which is ironic because I think people are raving over him because of his destination. What concerns me about DJ Moore is at best he's 3rd in the pecking order, but at worst 4th. And on top of it all, he has Cam Newton throwing him the ball. 

Moore is behind Olsen, CMC, and possibly Funchess. 

Best case scenario he is 3rd in the pecking order, but we are still going to be likely left wanting more as far as TDs go. In the red zone Cam likes to keep the ball frequently himself, so DJ Moore drops down another spot in the redzone.

I think as the preseason moves on, DJ Moore will drop down and will no longer be WR1 taken in rookie drafts, possibly even out of the first round if Sutton can generate some excitement during training camp

I took a pass on him because of the above reasons, and I didn't want to be frustrated with Cam Newton throwing the ball in the dirt 5 yards in front of him every time. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Like the player, but the destination is possibly the worst, which is ironic because I think people are raving over him because of his destination. What concerns me about DJ Moore is at best he's 3rd in the pecking order, but at worst 4th. And on top of it all, he has Cam Newton throwing him the ball. 

Moore is behind Olsen, CMC, and possibly Funchess. 

Best case scenario he is 3rd in the pecking order, but we are still going to be likely left wanting more as far as TDs go. In the red zone Cam likes to keep the ball frequently himself, so DJ Moore drops down another spot in the redzone.

I think as the preseason moves on, DJ Moore will drop down and will no longer be WR1 taken in rookie drafts, possibly even out of the first round if Sutton can generate some excitement during training camp

I took a pass on him because of the above reasons, and I didn't want to be frustrated with Cam Newton throwing the ball in the dirt 5 yards in front of him every time. 
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That is surprising to me given the posts in this thread. I think DJ could be huge. He's a tremendous prospect and I feel like he's getting discounted because he played with awful QB play, on a bad team and because recent 1st round WRs have been so disappointing. He hits every mark for me:

- Size: average, easily within the range for receiver to be successful 

- Athletic profile: not much else to ask for, he can run, he can jump, he's agile. Total athletic package. 

- College production: the raw stats looks bad, but given the context of the offense, he had a Calvin Johnson like college share of the passing offense (53% of the team's receiving production)

- Breakout: He first became a relevant college player as an 18 year old. His stat line looks pedestrian for his true freshman year but with that awful offense, you need context. DJ Moore was 2nd in receptions, 2nd in yards and tied for 1st in receiving TDs at 18 years old. 

- Competition level: Big10.

- Film: I know people don't like some technical stuff, but I see an explosive athlete who can win in 1:1 jump ball situations and a guy that is electric in the open field. I think that skill set works really well with Cam. Moore can play X, Y or Z IMO and will be on the field all the time. 

 
What's getting lost a bit is that, despite his reputation, Norv Turner kind of sucks. He's very similar to Sarkesian.

I expect the Panthers offense to continue to look the same "stuck in the mud" version we've come to expect from them. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
That is surprising to me given the posts in this thread. I think DJ could be huge. He's a tremendous prospect and I feel like he's getting discounted because he played with awful QB play, on a bad team and because recent 1st round WRs have been so disappointing. He hits every mark for me:

- Size: average, easily within the range for receiver to be successful 

- Athletic profile: not much else to ask for, he can run, he can jump, he's agile. Total athletic package. 

- College production: the raw stats looks bad, but given the context of the offense, he had a Calvin Johnson like college share of the passing offense (53% of the team's receiving production)

- Breakout: He first became a relevant college player as an 18 year old. His stat line looks pedestrian for his true freshman year but with that awful offense, you need context. DJ Moore was 2nd in receptions, 2nd in yards and tied for 1st in receiving TDs at 18 years old. 

- Competition level: Big10.

- Film: I know people don't like some technical stuff, but I see an explosive athlete who can win in 1:1 jump ball situations and a guy that is electric in the open field. I think that skill set works really well with Cam. Moore can play X, Y or Z IMO and will be on the field all the time. 
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I agree with everything bolded. I think he could be huge. I just hate where he's playing today. 

The biggest concern is Cam Newton for me. Cam doesn't seem to use his WRs very well. Benjamin had a great year or two when he came into the league, but he was very raw and he benefited from his size. Cam is not a great passing QB, and he hogs up too much in the redzone, so between him, Olsen and CMC there may not be many TDs to go around to DJ

Cam Newton has about 500 attempts per season. Assuming that CMC and Olsen each get 120 targets, Funchess 100, that leaves 160 targets.
Torey Smith should get his typical 60

So now we have 100 targets... Curtis Samuel should get about 20
Misc RB2/3 TE 2, and even WR5 targets... let's say another 20 total. 

So we are down to 60 targets? 

So let's assume Funchess gets only 70 targets...that's still only 90 targets for DJ. For him to "be huge" he would have to be getting 120 targets a season.

Let's talk TDs
Funchess had 8 TDs last year, and any other WR TDs were meaningless
2016 was 15 between 3 players, Benjamin lead with 7
2015 15 between Ginn and Funchess (Ginn with 10)

If DJ can be used similar to how Ginn was used in 2015 (100 targets, ~800 yards, 10 TDs), then yes, I think DJ could be very significant and a nice deal for many. However, 2015 the Panthers did not have a pass catching back gathering more than 25 targets.  I'm just not sure I want stock in this as the potential frustration may not be worth it. 

My questions are:
1. What are the targets/where are the targets coming from?
2. What is his projected redzone usage?
3. Does 1+2 equal fantasy relevance? 
4. Do you really trust Cam Newton? 


 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I agree with everything bolded. I think he could be huge. I just hate where he's playing today. 

The biggest concern is Cam Newton for me. Cam doesn't seem to use his WRs very well. Benjamin had a great year or two when he came into the league, but he was very raw and he benefited from his size. Cam is not a great passing QB, and he hogs up too much in the redzone, so between him, Olsen and CMC there may not be many TDs to go around to DJ

Cam Newton has about 500 attempts per season. Assuming that CMC and Olsen each get 120 targets, Funchess 100, that leaves 160 targets.
Torey Smith should get his typical 60

So now we have 100 targets... Curtis Samuel should get about 20
Misc RB2/3 TE 2, and even WR5 targets... let's say another 20 total. 

So we are down to 60 targets? 

So let's assume Funchess gets only 70 targets...that's still only 90 targets for DJ. For him to "be huge" he would have to be getting 120 targets a season.

Let's talk TDs
Funchess had 8 TDs last year, and any other WR TDs were meaningless
2016 was 15 between 3 players, Benjamin lead with 7
2015 15 between Ginn and Funchess (Ginn with 10)

If DJ can be used similar to how Ginn was used in 2015 (100 targets, ~800 yards, 10 TDs), then yes, I think DJ could be very significant and a nice deal for many. However, 2015 the Panthers did not have a pass catching back gathering more than 25 targets.  I'm just not sure I want stock in this as the potential frustration may not be worth it. 

My questions are:
1. What are the targets/where are the targets coming from?
2. What is his projected redzone usage?
3. Does 1+2 equal fantasy relevance? 
4. Do you really trust Cam Newton? 


 
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See my post above about Cam and please tell me who these pass catchers are that Cam didn't use well. 

1. KB got got 51 targets last year. Those are gone. Funchess got 111 but I a lot of that was necessity since after the KB trade and Olsen injury, their next best receiver was Russell Shepard. I would not be surprised to see Funchess targets to dip below 100. Those targets that came out of necessity will now be challenged by a really good young receiver prospect. am also not convinced a 33 year old TE can come back from a broken foot and be the same player he was. I think Olsen's targets dip significantly from his Panther career averages. Plus Cam is 1st in the NFL for active yards per completion so in theory a receiver can do more with less receptions with Cam than most QBs. 

2. That could be difficult, he might have to rely on big plays but if there is a QB that can produce those, it is Cam. 

3. No guarantee, but I think for a 12th round pick, there is a high enough chance that he usurps Devin Funchess. I suppose I am writing off Torrey Smith, which could be the roadblock here to relevance. Last year the WRs1-3 got 214 targets (DF, KB Shepard and Byrd). Funchess, DJ and Torrey will fight over that pie. I think the chance is close to 50% that DJ is better than both of them and gets 100+ targets. Any WR with 100+ targets is fantasy relevant. 

4. Yes. Like I posted above, every pass option he has been given, Cam has gotten the best out of them. 

 
Ilov80s said:
See my post above about Cam and please tell me who these pass catchers are that Cam didn't use well. 

1. KB got got 51 targets last year. Those are gone. Funchess got 111 but I a lot of that was necessity since after the KB trade and Olsen injury, their next best receiver was Russell Shepard. I would not be surprised to see Funchess targets to dip below 100. Those targets that came out of necessity will now be challenged by a really good young receiver prospect. am also not convinced a 33 year old TE can come back from a broken foot and be the same player he was. I think Olsen's targets dip significantly from his Panther career averages. Plus Cam is 1st in the NFL for active yards per completion so in theory a receiver can do more with less receptions with Cam than most QBs. 

2. That could be difficult, he might have to rely on big plays but if there is a QB that can produce those, it is Cam. 

3. No guarantee, but I think for a 12th round pick, there is a high enough chance that he usurps Devin Funchess. I suppose I am writing off Torrey Smith, which could be the roadblock here to relevance. Last year the WRs1-3 got 214 targets (DF, KB Shepard and Byrd). Funchess, DJ and Torrey will fight over that pie. I think the chance is close to 50% that DJ is better than both of them and gets 100+ targets. Any WR with 100+ targets is fantasy relevant. 

4. Yes. Like I posted above, every pass option he has been given, Cam has gotten the best out of them. 
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Fair enough, Olsen may take a dip. I think DJ's skill set is a lot like what Olsen was used for, so this is a possibility

12th round pick... I'm assuming redraft? Yes, in round 12 he poses exceptional value. I'm surprised he's going that low TBH, as I think he has potential to be a flex play, and if the stars align very possibly a solid WR2. 

You make a good point. 214 targets from WRs 1-3. However, I think you are grossly under-estimating how much the ball will be spread out. 

I think Torrey Smith will get 60-70 targets. For the sake of argument let's say 60. It's about average for his last 3 seasons. This is difficult to predict because we don't know how he will be used in CAR. However, he is starting and it's hard to see a starting WR in an offense not getting ~4 targets a game. 
Then there's Funchess, who I agree got 111 targets out of necessity. I can see him getting 70-80. Again, let's assume the lower end, but I think it will be higher out of necessity- DJ doesn't do what Funchess does. 
That still leaves DJ with 81 targets. I'm not convinced that's enough to make him fantasy relevant, unless he's bringing in 8 TDs for the season, which I highly doubt.

I agree, any WR with 100+ targets is exceptionally relevant. I don't see DJ getting those this year. Eventually, sure, but not this season. Maybe they have a plan, and they feed him the ball like crazy. Maybe Olsen drops to 80 targets, which is realistic, but keep in mind other great TEs played into their late 30s at high levels, so I think the theory that Olsen's targets will drop is assuming a lot. 

I think the hype on DJ is similar to Chubb... there may be a lot of disappointed people out there so focused on his potential they are missing the surrounding cast. I know you and I disagree- you see either Olsen or Funchess (or even both) having significant drops in targets and DJ taking those. That's possible. But I think it's assuming a lot since Olsen is still a great TE and Funchess doesn't hold the same role in the offense as what DJ will be asked to do. 

I see DJ coming in at 74 targets, 50 receptions (which is high IMO, 10% greater than Cam's career completion percentage), 600 yards, 3 scores. 

 
Are we sure Torrey Smith is starting over DJ? 

How much of last years targrts being spread out was due to a lack of talent? Nobody really demanded a lot of targets. When he’s had good receivers (Olsen, Smith and CMC) he has given them a lot of volume.

Also we don’t really know the roles of the players given the new coach (which I’m not at all excited about). 

Regsrdless, I am totally referring to the proposition of his upside vs cost in redraft. Take him in the 11th and after a week or 2 you will see what kind of role he has, how Olsen looks, etc. If he doesn’t fire, he can but cut for a hot WW player.

 
I'm not understanding how people assume he can't be the #1 target. *If* he is any good and lives up to his draft spot in terms of talent, Cam will look to him 1st. I agree Carolina is not the best landing spot. But people keep saying he is #4 at best. I think that's insane. Olsen and Funchess will both get less targets. CMC is right there but Moore will get his. 

Also, maybe someone can help here. How much did Funchess and Olsen play on the field together post-Benjamin last year? I think those two cancel each other out a bit *and* Moore will take from them. 

 
There's a huge range of possibilities for Moore, since we don't know how good he is. If he's good and he hits the ground running, then he could quickly take over as Carolina's top WR and have 1000+ yards this season. Maybe a 20% chance of that. I don't see any major barriers to that sort of season (other than the fact that he might not be that good or NFL-ready) - Funchess is not a Julio Jones level player who will force Moore down into a supporting role. But if Moore doesn't especially shine then he'll be basically fantasy-irrelevant as part of the supporting cast in Carolina's receiving corps. As a starting point, I'd mostly be looking at the production of recent first round WRs rather than at the details of the situation in Carolina.

 
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Ilov80s said:
Are we sure Torrey Smith is starting over DJ? 

How much of last years targrts being spread out was due to a lack of talent? Nobody really demanded a lot of targets. When he’s had good receivers (Olsen, Smith and CMC) he has given them a lot of volume.

Also we don’t really know the roles of the players given the new coach (which I’m not at all excited about). 

Regsrdless, I am totally referring to the proposition of his upside vs cost in redraft. Take him in the 11th and after a week or 2 you will see what kind of role he has, how Olsen looks, etc. If he doesn’t fire, he can but cut for a hot WW player.
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I assumed DJ would play slot because it's where he's said to fit best. 

In redraft he has great value in the 10th+ round as a WR4/5. He has potential to catch on and be a WR3/flex player, which is great value. If he doesn't, it's just a late round pick anyways. I think we are in complete agreement on this. I guess I'm looking more from a dynasty perspective of being kind of ho-hum on him as the WR1 taken. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I assumed DJ would play slot because it's where he's said to fit best. 

In redraft he has great value in the 10th+ round as a WR4/5. He has potential to catch on and be a WR3/flex player, which is great value. If he doesn't, it's just a late round pick anyways. I think we are in complete agreement on this. I guess I'm looking more from a dynasty perspective of being kind of ho-hum on him as the WR1 taken. 
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We definitely agree. I’m not sure why he’s projected to be a slot guy though. 6’0” 210, 4.42, 39.5 vert, 11” broad, third best WR 20 and 60 yard shuttle. He screams explosive athlete and downfield threat to me. Not that I’m an expert on anything.

 
Ilov80s said:
We definitely agree. I’m not sure why he’s projected to be a slot guy though. 6’0” 210, 4.42, 39.5 vert, 11” broad, third best WR 20 and 60 yard shuttle. He screams explosive athlete and downfield threat to me. Not that I’m an expert on anything.
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I do not think he's projected to play the slot. I think Samuels is their slot guy. I think Torrey Smith will be used more as a situational deep threat with Moore and Funchess starting on the outside.

 
Ilov80s said:
We definitely agree. I’m not sure why he’s projected to be a slot guy though. 6’0” 210, 4.42, 39.5 vert, 11” broad, third best WR 20 and 60 yard shuttle. He screams explosive athlete and downfield threat to me. Not that I’m an expert on anything.
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Dr. Octopus said:
I do not think he's projected to play the slot. I think Samuels is their slot guy. I think Torrey Smith will be used more as a situational deep threat with Moore and Funchess starting on the outside.
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I was going off this. He is both I guess. Not that it matters; seems like he's going to play everywhere but Funchess' position, which makes sense since they offer two completely different skill sets (X vs Z). 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I was going off this. He is both I guess. Not that it matters; seems like he's going to play everywhere but Funchess' position, which makes sense since they offer two completely different skill sets (X vs Z). 
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I could see him being outside on 2 WR sets and then when they bring in Smith, DJ slides to the slot. 

Dr. Octopus said:
I do not think he's projected to play the slot. I think Samuels is their slot guy. I think Torrey Smith will be used more as a situational deep threat with Moore and Funchess starting on the outside.
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I wonder what Samuels ever amounts to. From what I saw in college, he was a straight line burner and not an agile guy. That skill set seems better suited for the outside and not so much the slot. Unfortunately, I think Samuel's best NFL fit would be as a change of pace back. Also, the ankle injury was worse than first reported. He didn't just break his ankle, but also there was significant ligament damage. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I wonder what Samuels ever amounts to. From what I saw in college, he was a straight line burner and not an agile guy. That skill set seems better suited for the outside and not so much the slot. Unfortunately, I think Samuel's best NFL fit would be as a change of pace back. Also, the ankle injury was worse than first reported. He didn't just break his ankle, but also there was significant ligament damage. 
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He's on my inherited dynasty roster. He may not make the cut when we cut down our rosters. Before DJ I was optimistic, after I'm thinking he is likely WW material. 

 
BassNBrew said:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/deep-ball-project

Newton's 16-17 deep ball season was one of the top too.

With 95 and 97 targets, Ginn finished ranked WR 45 and 25.  If you think Moore gets 100 targets then he should be a very solid draft value.  
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Hello Bass, most would probably consider a deep ball 20+ yards in the air not 16+ and there’s a big difference.

It’s interesting, the data that I pulled Cam is not in the top 10 with passes throw 20+ in the air.

Tex

 
BassNBrew said:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/deep-ball-project

Newton's 16-17 deep ball season was one of the top too.

With 95 and 97 targets, Ginn finished ranked WR 45 and 25.  If you think Moore gets 100 targets then he should be a very solid draft value.  
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BigTex said:
Hello Bass, most would probably consider a deep ball 20+ yards in the air not 16+ and there’s a big difference.

It’s interesting, the data that I pulled Cam is not in the top 10 with passes throw 20+ in the air.

Tex
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Dr. Dan said:
because he cant throw it that far
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I don't 4 yards makes a difference really. Cam has a rocket arm- it's accuracy that is the question. The data @BassNBrew posted shows surprisingly good numbers for Cam last year in the 16-29 air yard throws. Here is where Cam was ranked accuracy wise on throws of varying longer distances: 16-19 (7th), 20-24 (2nd), 25-29 (8th). It's farther down field where his accuracy falls apart.

 
Rookies can always be unpredictable and the path for Moore to become WR1 on this team quickly is not beyond the realm of reason.  Having only Funchess in front of him is not insurmountable.  I actually think Funchess profiles as a better NFL WR2.

Volume is ultimately the issue here though.  I like the player.  But Cam struggles to exceed 500 passing attempts in any given season.  if Olsen is healthy, he can still threaten 1000 yards and Run CMC is a swiss-army type weapon that the offense features.  Most likely outcome is that Moore shows very nicely in 2018; that he was a good pick but his path to fantasy relevancy likely lies in 2019 and beyond.

 
Ilov80s said:
I don't 4 yards makes a difference really. Cam has a rocket arm- it's accuracy that is the question. The data @BassNBrew posted shows surprisingly good numbers for Cam last year in the 16-29 air yard throws. Here is where Cam was ranked accuracy wise on throws of varying longer distances: 16-19 (7th), 20-24 (2nd), 25-29 (8th). It's farther down field where his accuracy falls apart.
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Among the top 32 QBs by pass attempts, Cam Newton ranks 28th in completion percentage in 2017. Among names like Trevor Seimian, Deshone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett, Bretty Hundley

Those are not the names I want my WR's QB to be around. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Among the top 32 QBs by pass attempts, Cam Newton ranks 28th in completion percentage in 2017. Among names like Trevor Seimian, Deshone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett, Bretty Hundley

Those are not the names I want my WR's QB to be around. 
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I hear you, but again, name a pass catcher that Cam didn’t get the most out of.

 
I feel like Cam is streaky as far as accuracy goes. He'll be garbage for long stretches and then he'll get hot and he looks plenty accurate. Frustrating to own for sure. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I feel like Cam is streaky as far as accuracy goes. He'll be garbage for long stretches and then he'll get hot and he looks plenty accurate. Frustrating to own for sure. 
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Sure, I am not saying he's Tom Brady as a passer but people keep saying having Cam as a QB is a negative for DJ. People said the same for CMC last year. Yet, nobody can name a single meaningful pass catcher that Cam didn't make the most of. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I'm not understanding how people assume he can't be the #1 target.
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I agree. Carolina is one of the teams where a good rookie could be the go-to receiver. Olsen is at the end of his career (albeit still effective) & Funchess is more just a guy than a WR1.

If Moore can develop fairly quickly, & it looks like he's on the right track, we're possibly looking at a nice FF season, especially for a rookie.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Among the top 32 QBs by pass attempts, Cam Newton ranks 28th in completion percentage in 2017. Among names like Trevor Seimian, Deshone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett, Bretty Hundley

Those are not the names I want my WR's QB to be around. 
Click to expand...
Is it really that big of a deal for a WR ff wise?  Give Cam another 5% completions and he's with Big Ben, Rodgers, Ryan, etc.  So instead of catching 59 balls for 667 yards, he catches 64 balls for 723 (based on 100 targets and 11.3 ypc).  That's 136 pts instead of 126 pts.  

Newton and Wentz were in the same comp % range.  Here's what Jeffrey did: 120 targets, 57 receipts, 789 yards (13.8 ypc).  Benjamin was 14.8 ypc.  Using Jeffrey's ypc, a Newton WR getting 100 targets would be at 59 balls for 814 yards.

If you buy into Moore getting 100 targets, then you're looking a getting a discounted Ashlon Jeffrey.

 
BassNBrew said:
Is it really that big of a deal for a WR ff wise?  Give Cam another 5% completions and he's with Big Ben, Rodgers, Ryan, etc.  So instead of catching 59 balls for 667 yards, he catches 64 balls for 723 (based on 100 targets and 11.3 ypc).  That's 136 pts instead of 126 pts.  

Newton and Wentz were in the same comp % range.  Here's what Jeffrey did: 120 targets, 57 receipts, 789 yards (13.8 ypc).  Benjamin was 14.8 ypc.  Using Jeffrey's ypc, a Newton WR getting 100 targets would be at 59 balls for 814 yards.

If you buy into Moore getting 100 targets, then you're looking a getting a discounted Ashlon Jeffrey.
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5% is huge... and Wentz was a second year QB. I expect younger QBs to struggle with completion % in the first year or two while the game slows down for them.

to each their own. I prefer not to count on Cam

 
Dr. Dan said:
5% is huge... and Wentz was a second year QB. I expect younger QBs to struggle with completion % in the first year or two while the game slows down for them.

to each their own. I prefer not to count on Cam
Click to expand...
The point is you don't need to count on Cam.  Moore is ranked at WR52.  Last year WR52 scored 126 ppr pts.  Based on my numbers above with 100 targets and Cam completing at 59% you have 140 fantasy points and that assumes Moore scores 0 TDs.    140 was good for WR43.  Let's give him 5 TDs and you're talking WR30 with 170 pts.  So you don't trust Cam, reduce his comp % to 50% and the fantasy points drop to 145 pts.  That's still a bargain where you can get Moore.  

Targets will be the driver as to Moore's success this year, not Cam being +/- 5% different on his completion numbers.

 
BassNBrew said:
The point is you don't need to count on Cam.  Moore is ranked at WR52.  Last year WR52 scored 126 ppr pts.  Based on my numbers above with 100 targets and Cam completing at 59% you have 140 fantasy points and that assumes Moore scores 0 TDs.    140 was good for WR43.  Let's give him 5 TDs and you're talking WR30 with 170 pts.  So you don't trust Cam, reduce his comp % to 50% and the fantasy points drop to 145 pts.  That's still a bargain where you can get Moore.  

Targets will be the driver as to Moore's success this year, not Cam being +/- 5% different on his completion numbers.
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Moore isn't getting 100 targets 

 
Cam fan. Panther fan. Moore fan. But it’s a weird combo and not expecting big things in year 1. 40/550/4, not startable most weeks with a few big weeks, keeps similar but ever so slight of a regression in value going in to his second season. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Moore isn't getting 100 targets 
Click to expand...
If he looks good in TC & preseason I will take that bet.  I think it's a pretty good over/under actually.  So I'd be flipping a coin but 100 is actually about what I expect.  I see Olsen and Funchess cannibalizing each other a bit.  

Moore - 105 

CMC - 90

Olsen - 85

Funchess - 80

Samuel/Smith/WRs - 65

CJA/RBs - 35

TEs - 40

TOTAL - 500

Just rough guesses, and predicated on Moore not busting, which he may.  But so far all has looked great and if he looks good in preseason this is the breakdown I see.  And I swear Cam is going to look to him if he is any good.  

 
barackdhouse said:
If he looks good in TC & preseason I will take that bet.  I think it's a pretty good over/under actually.  So I'd be flipping a coin but 100 is actually about what I expect.  I see Olsen and Funchess cannibalizing each other a bit.  

Moore - 105 

CMC - 90

Olsen - 85

Funchess - 80

Samuel/Smith/WRs - 65

CJA/RBs - 35

TEs - 40

TOTAL - 500

Just rough guesses, and predicated on Moore not busting, which he may.  But so far all has looked great and if he looks good in preseason this is the breakdown I see.  And I swear Cam is going to look to him if he is any good.  
Click to expand...
Why are you predicting Olsen's targets to fall off a cliff?

 
matuski said:
Why are you predicting Olsen's targets to fall off a cliff?
Click to expand...
As I mentioned in the post, I think Funchess and Olsen will cannibalize each other.  But I could certainly be wrong.  I don't think we've seen them on the field together much since the Benjamin trade.  And certainly not with someone like Moore (again assuming he is not a bust).

 
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barackdhouse said:
If he looks good in TC & preseason I will take that bet.  I think it's a pretty good over/under actually.  So I'd be flipping a coin but 100 is actually about what I expect.  I see Olsen and Funchess cannibalizing each other a bit.  

Moore - 105 

CMC - 90

Olsen - 85

Funchess - 80

Samuel/Smith/WRs - 65

CJA/RBs - 35

TEs - 40

TOTAL - 500

Just rough guesses, and predicated on Moore not busting, which he may.  But so far all has looked great and if he looks good in preseason this is the breakdown I see.  And I swear Cam is going to look to him if he is any good.  
Click to expand...
Wow so Olsen is going to have a Carolina career low targets (excluding last year when he played only 7 games)? I'd be much inclined to take an over/under 85 targets aside from injury for Olsen. I'd take the over. Every day, all day. 

CMC below 100? After he had 113 last year? That's crazy. He's a lock for 120. He's their biggest offensive weapon. What reasoning is there for CMC to drop almost 25 targets from last season? Moore? 

I'd be absolutely shocked if a rookie WR leads the Panthers in targets this season. Not going to happen, although I can appreciate the input from those who think it will. FTR I do not think Moore busts. I just have realistic year 1 expectations. 

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
How can we say that when they have a new (old) OC that likes the downfield passing game?
Click to expand...
IMO he's their best offensive weapon. You find ways to get your best offensive player the ball. OC is a big change, but a good offensive coordinator will use the strengths of his players while not deviating too much from his own philosophy. Plus, it's established in this thread that Cam absolutely struggles in the downfield passing game, one of the worst among starting QBs

 
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