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Jason Wood

Alvin Kamara Player Spotlight

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Alvin Kamara went from an afterthought a year ago in drafts to a consensus top-10 pick this year. The former Tennessee Volunteer was the THIRD Saints running back drafted last year, on average. Behind Mark Ingram. Behind Adrian Peterson. He was the 10th rookie RB drafted, on average. He was the 59th running back drafted. 

Yet, he became only the 4th rookie running back to post at least 500 yards rushing/receiving in the last 20 years, and his 1500+ yards and 13 touchdowns were good enough for a top-5 finish in every scoring format. 

This year expectations are sky high, particularly with Mark Ingram facing a 4-game suspension to start the season. So what say you? Are you comfortable drafting Kamara in the middle of the first round? Does your comfort level vary depending on PPR and non-PPR structure? Are you worried about Kamara's high touchdown total last year being unsustainable? 

Let's hear your thoughts!

 

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I have to keep this summation short. If there is a downside to Kamara’s game it’s that his efficiency being repeated would defy all logic. Against that argument though, it’s hard to deny him seeing an increase in touches with Ingram out for the first four weeks. In the years I looked at Payton’s offense (‘11-‘17 excluding ‘12) 4 out of those six seasons RB’s saw over 150 targets and the other two were 108 and 137. I’ll be interested how far up in the top 10 RB’s Kamara falls but these are my projections for better or worse:

164att 836yds 5.1ypa 5TD

108tgt 81rec 760yds 9.3ypc 5TD

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Kamara blew me away last year. He looked like another Jamaal Charles. I actually think he's being underrated, he's a huge mismatch in the passing game, and the Saints took it very slow with him. Even before Ingram's suspension, I felt Kamara would leave him in the dust, the suspension only amplifies that in my eyes. He's simply too good to take off the field now that he's proven himself. 

I think his passing game work stays the same or goes up slightly, and he sees double the rushing work. This feels somewhat reminiscent of the 2009 Titans to me, where people were slow to get on the Chris Johnson bandwagon because White ate up touches and TD's, but the Titans realized Johnson was their best weapon and rode him. I think Kamara leaves Ingram in the dust a bit. Add maybe 100 touches from Ingram to Kamara. 

Kamara had 1500 yards and 13 TD's last year. I think those TD numbers are fair to expect again, and 200-300 more yards with more work is reasonable, and that is assuming he loses at least a full yard off his per touch rate.

I'm probably going to be the high man on Kamara, but he's my RB2 after Gurley. More TD's than Bell, more receiving than Elliott, better offense than Johnson. 

I'll say 225-1100-9 rushing, 75-650-4 receiving, and I think there is upside from there.

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