Why has the WR position become more difficult to predict? (1 Viewer)

In the Coleman thread, Dez made the comment "2016 draft starting to look like a train wreck for most everyone's top rated WR's Treadwell, Coleman and Doctson was most people's 1-2-3 rated WR's in some order.".   I thought this deserved its own thread since I've noticed this isn't isolated to 2016.  Historically, the "blue chip" WRs have lived up to their billing but, recently, the top prospects flame out with regularity and a stud emerges from the next tier or two.

The top three rookies from 2017 were Mike Williams, Corey Davis and John Ross.  In fact, all three were top 10 NFL draft picks.  Zay Jones was also a popular pick.   Its too early to evaluate the class, but does anyone look like a true #1 WR?  Meanwhile, Juju was overlooked by many.  As I recall, there were concerns about speed or, at least, the label of a "possession WR".  He also may have had the USC stigma - expected to under perform as have a string of previous USC alumni WRs.

The 2016 WR class featured Treadwell, Coleman and Doctson.  Will Fuller was also a 1st round NFL selection.  Fuller may be a one trick pony and certainly has been inconsistent.  Michael Thomas emerged from the next tier.

2015 gave us 6 first round NFL picks. Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshard Perriman, and Phillip Dorsett.   Is this a historically bad group of first rounders?  More was expected from Cooper and each season seems to have another reason for not meeting expectations (admittedly high expectations).   Stefon Diggs was around the 12th WR off the board?  The other fantasy viable players were found much later in the draft, Ty Montgomery, Tyler Locket, Devin Funchess and Jamison Crowder.

2014 was the last year where the top of the class met expectations; Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin were first round picks.

This years top WRs are DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton.   Only the first two were NFL 1st rounders and they didn't go until picks 24 and 26, respectively - relatively late for the first WRs off the board.  Will this class meet the same fate as recent classes?  I'm not thrilled about Moore's situation; Ridley is so thin and Sutton, although I like the situation long term, will likely be buried as a rookie.  Who are the potential dark horses?  Perhaps James Washington or Michael Gallup?  

What do the break-out WRs have in common?  Situation, for one.  The Steelers do a great job of drafting/cultivating WRs.  Thomas also went to a proficient offense, perhaps the perfect one, in New Orleans. Mixed feelings on Minny, but overall, I believe Diggs went to a plus destination.   His best production, as well as that of Fuller and Agholor, coincided with improved QB play.   Gallup and Washington both go to quality teams.  Opportunity is wide open (pun intended) in Dallas.  On the other end of the spectrum, is the pie big enough in Pittsburgh?   Could an injury create an opportunity for Washington?

So, does situation trump talent?  Personally, I've always drafted for talent.  Can a talented player overcome a bad situation?  Is the league in a continual state of evolution where changes in offensive schemes have made the position more difficult to predict, at least from a fantasy perspective?  Other thoughts?

I think the craft of being an NFL wide receiver is considerably more complex than, say RB.  The transition from college route trees and timing patterns to professional route trees and timing patterns is huge, making it harder to correctly project.

It has also been a while since anyone was proclaimed a “generational talent” as a WR, garnering near unanimous approval (like, say, Barkley this year at RB).  Consensus on the past few classes (since Sammy Watkins?) has been that the classes have “good but not great” WRs, with converstaions focusing on who is best in class.  Cooper may have gotten some solid hype...but he’s also done the best to date of the prospects mentioned in your post.  So one possibility is simply that the WR talent coming out in recent classes has been below average.

Arodin said:

I think the craft of being an NFL wide receiver is considerably more complex than, say RB.  The transition from college route trees and timing patterns to professional route trees and timing patterns is huge, making it harder to correctly project.

It has also been a while since anyone was proclaimed a “generational talent” as a WR, garnering near unanimous approval (like, say, Barkley this year at RB).  Consensus on the past few classes (since Sammy Watkins?) has been that the classes have “good but not great” WRs, with converstaions focusing on who is best in class.  Cooper may have gotten some solid hype...but he’s also done the best to date of the prospects mentioned in your post.  So one possibility is simply that the WR talent coming out in recent classes has been below average.

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"Craft" is a great word for the complexities of the position.  There is a certain level of commitment required... and that is hard to quantify when we focus on the athletic measurables captured in the combine process.

Plausible that we're seeing a temporary void in talent but its hard to conceive of the deep college programs failing to produce the talent.

DropKick said:

"Craft" is a great word for the complexities of the position.  There is a certain level of commitment required... and that is hard to quantify when we focus on the athletic measurables captured in the combine process.

Plausible that we're seeing a temporary void in talent but its hard to conceive of the deep college programs failing to produce the talent.

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I would agree with this if the colleges were a true “minor league” whose reason for existence was to produce talent.  

But I would suggest two changes:

1) I would change “produce talent” to “develop talent.”  If there is a flaw in the programs, it is failing to develop raw talent (which we see enter the league in abundance) into refined craftsmanship.  I suspect one key reason for this is the fact that colleges are not seeing talent development as their primary purpose.

2) An issue discussed more commonly in QB analysis (equally inconsistent), that college schemes that work very well to allow dominant athletes to overwhelm lesser competition don’t translate well to the NFL where every single player is a dominant athlete.  Coleman and the other Baylor receivers make a good illustration...Baylor WRs dont run full routes every play so they can pace themselves for athletic bursts.  Would that fly in the pro league?  They also specialize on one side of the field and rarely motion across the formation.  So just trying to guess their NFL success already builds in having to project whether skills unpracticed can be learned quickly enough to transition.  How do we as outsiders even begin to estimate a college player’s learning speed, as well as work ethic and adaptability?

I think if we want to see improvement in our (and the league’s) identification of elite talent at WR and QB we would need to see a true developmental league brought into existence.  Let draft picks spend up to two years on split contracts competing in a minor league and honing the professional craft, running pro schemes under pro coaches, facing other elite draftable talent.  Fantasy owners at least would have a lot more to base their judgments on when drafting players coming out of such a league.  (I can’t imagine it wouldn’t be a net profit for the NFL either, and give them marketing inroads into medium markets that currently don’t have the prospect of attracting an NFL team.)

Most of those guys were injured I wouldn’t right them off just yet. That book is still being written.

Tex

Arodin said:

I would agree with this if the colleges were a true “minor league” whose reason for existence was to produce talent.  

But I would suggest two changes:

1) I would change “produce talent” to “develop talent.”  If there is a flaw in the programs, it is failing to develop raw talent (which we see enter the league in abundance) into refined craftsmanship.  I suspect one key reason for this is the fact that colleges are not seeing talent development as their primary purpose.

2) An issue discussed more commonly in QB analysis (equally inconsistent), that college schemes that work very well to allow dominant athletes to overwhelm lesser competition don’t translate well to the NFL where every single player is a dominant athlete.  Coleman and the other Baylor receivers make a good illustration...Baylor WRs dont run full routes every play so they can pace themselves for athletic bursts.  Would that fly in the pro league?  They also specialize on one side of the field and rarely motion across the formation.  So just trying to guess their NFL success already builds in having to project whether skills unpracticed can be learned quickly enough to transition.  How do we as outsiders even begin to estimate a college player’s learning speed, as well as work ethic and adaptability?

I think if we want to see improvement in our (and the league’s) identification of elite talent at WR and QB we would need to see a true developmental league brought into existence.  Let draft picks spend up to two years on split contracts competing in a minor league and honing the professional craft, running pro schemes under pro coaches, facing other elite draftable talent.  Fantasy owners at least would have a lot more to base their judgments on when drafting players coming out of such a league.  (I can’t imagine it wouldn’t be a net profit for the NFL either, and give them marketing inroads into medium markets that currently don’t have the prospect of attracting an NFL team.)

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Regarding the coaches' primary purpose being developing talent, Of course it's not. Saban doesn't get paid to ensure the Falcons draft is successful.  How many recruits even consider whether the coach developed players at his position into NFL starters? If they do it's secondary to the number of rings, and behind whether the player was drafted in the first place ("we developed 10 first round picks in the last 4 years" is more of a selling point than "we currently have 16 players starting the the NFL). Not to mention TV deals, campus life, amenities, etc.  You do get the player introductions on TV, so maybe it helps some but not as much.

Personally I don't care much about the first round picks developing into studs. It's actually really nice that many of the top 10 receivers weren't first round picks. 

I'm highly skeptical of a minor league having sustained success. Maybe some, but the best pro players obviously are going to be in the NFL, most of the next tier is going to college. At least for the foreseeable future. You might get a few players who hate college and the prospect of making a little cash is better than the perks of college but those will be the minority.

People said the same about rbs 3 years ago. Everything is a gamble. Some hit and some don’t, and some years there’s a lot more talent than others.

WR has always been like this. Go back 15 years, and the #2 pick of the NFL draft was Charles Rogers, a huge bust. Andre Johnson went with pick 3 and was a big success, and Bryant Johnson also went in the first round and was pretty mediocre. The only other star WR who emerged from that draft class was the 6th receiver taken, pick 54 Anquan Boldin. The other 3 most solid WRs to come out of that draft were 3rd rounder Nate Burleson, 4th rounder Brandon Lloyd, and 7th rounder Kevin Walter.

The next season there were 7 first round WRs, and only 1 of them lived up to his draft position (Larry Fitzgerald). The second best WR in that draft class was probably 4th rounder Jerricho Cotchery, although the other 6 first rounders did include a couple other guys who weren't far behind Cotchery in Lee Evans and Roy Williams.

Occasionally there's a year or two when things turn out oddly similarly to expectations, but over any stretch of several years there will be plenty of busts and surprises. At WR and at other positions too.

I do agree with you, ZWK, there are always busts and surprises.  We had a drought like this in 2000-2002. But, overall, the top guys have a decent track record.

I'm always interested in the top of the class.   I've long been a contrarian and when everyone was taking RBs early and often, I opted to target a blue chip WRs with a pick in the second half of the first round.

* Players considered elite prior to the draft

2000  Plaxico OK but Peter Warrick disappointed,
2001  Early picks David Terrell and Koren Robinson reminiscent of recent draft classes.   Reggie Wayne last receiver of the 1st round.
2002  Early picks flamed out; Deion Branch and several later picks became serviceable
2003  *Andre Johnson (2nd off the board)  Hard to believe Charles Rogers went a pick before Johnson.  Was it the physical comparisons to Randy Moss?
2004  *Larry Fitzgerald (1st off the board)
2005  Roddy White (6th WR of the 1st round) - Braylon Edward at 1.3 to the Brownies
2006  Santonio Holmes (only 1st round WR)
2007  *Calvin Johnson  (Steve Smith in the 2nd)
2008  Jordy Nelson (no WRs selected in the first round)
2009  *Michael Crabtree (not a huge surprise the Raiders took a "speed" WR before Crabtree)
2010  *Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas
2011  *AJ Green and *Julio Jones (Randall Cobb & Torrey Smith later)
2012  Early picks flamed out;  Alshon Jeffery was 7th WR off the board.  Curiously, top prospects Justin Blackmon & Michael Floyd had substance issues.
2013  *DeAndre Hopkins (2nd WR off the board)  Hard to fathom Tavon Austin at #8 overall.

Guys who went to good situations?  Reggie Wayne went to a great situation with Peyton. Deion Branch had Brady. Jordy Nelson (and Randall Cobb) had Aaron Rodgers. Santonio Homes had Big Ben.  And Roddy White had Michael Vick and Matt Ryan.

Not so much?  Braylon Edwards went to Cleveland. Charles Rogers went to the early 2000s Lions.  Rogers, Blackmon and Floyd all had substance issues.

So some good posts but I don’t really base my drafting of new guys on the success or lack there of of past draft picks....what DJ Moore will or wont do will having nothing to do with his draft slot or where Charles Rodgers or Peter Warrick or Fitz were drafted....do you guys really use what past WR’s have or have not done, what round they were taken in etc in your projections/rankings of new guys...?....seems like a lot of wasted time and quite honestly pretty meaningless information...

If your research shows you that 1 of 2 first round RBs become solid starters in the NFL and only 1 or 5 first round WRs do, that should impact your draft strategy. As should studying which kinds of WRs tend to make it and which don't. I think there's a lot that's worth knowing from past draft successes and failures if the sample is large enough. 

Stinkin Ref said:

So some good posts but I don’t really base my drafting of new guys on the success or lack there of of past draft picks....what DJ Moore will or wont do will having nothing to do with his draft slot or where Charles Rodgers or Peter Warrick or Fitz were drafted....do you guys really use what past WR’s have or have not done, what round they were taken in etc in your projections/rankings of new guys...?....seems like a lot of wasted time and quite honestly pretty meaningless information...

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Past experience can be very useful in self-assessment.  “Does my own player study (or that of experts I follow) tend to successfully identify productive rookies or not?”  “How does the level of uncertainty in my evaluation of rookies at each position compare to the level of uncertainty in veteran evaluation?”  

I am not using past performance of other rookies to assess the quality of DJ Moore’s play.  But I am using it to assess how likely I am to correctly predict the quality of DJ Moore’s play.

Catbird said:

If your research shows you that 1 of 2 first round RBs become solid starters in the NFL and only 1 or 5 first round WRs do, that should impact your draft strategy. As should studying which kinds of WRs tend to make it and which don't. I think there's a lot that's worth knowing from past draft successes and failures if the sample is large enough. 

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I guess I just completely disagree with this. 

Arodin said:

Past experience can be very useful in self-assessment.  “Does my own player study (or that of experts I follow) tend to successfully identify productive rookies or not?”  “How does the level of uncertainty in my evaluation of rookies at each position compare to the level of uncertainty in veteran evaluation?”  

I am not using past performance of other rookies to assess the quality of DJ Moore’s play.  But I am using it to assess how likely I am to correctly predict the quality of DJ Moore’s play.

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Just IMO...but I think you are overthinking it quite a bit...I'll stick to things like talent and opportunity and call it good....when its time to pull the trigger or not pull the trigger on a guy in a draft, I'm not going to be thinking about/factoring in most of the things you guys have discussed....again, just IMO...and if all that stuff works for you, great....have at it....I just feel like you are factoring in a lot of information that has nothing to do with the actual player you are getting ready to draft or not draft....

How hard is it to repeat as a top-12 fantasy WR?

DropKick said:

"Craft" is a great word for the complexities of the position.  There is a certain level of commitment required... and that is hard to quantify when we focus on the athletic measurables captured in the combine process.

Plausible that we're seeing a temporary void in talent but its hard to conceive of the deep college programs failing to produce the talent.

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It's not that they aren't producing the talent, it's that they aren't coaching it.  Most big time programs run one-read type offenses.  There's no training on how to run routes or set up defenders.  It's much more about what they do once in the league.  This is the primary reason I don't draft WR's in rookie drafts anymore in my dynasty leagues, it's too much of a crapshoot and I would rather draft RB's that can spike early and use their equity to get the WR that show.

DropKick said:

I do agree with you, ZWK, there are always busts and surprises.  We had a drought like this in 2000-2002. But, overall, the top guys have a decent track record.

I'm always interested in the top of the class.   I've long been a contrarian and when everyone was taking RBs early and often, I opted to target a blue chip WRs with a pick in the second half of the first round.

* Players considered elite prior to the draft

2000  Plaxico OK but Peter Warrick disappointed,
2001  Early picks David Terrell and Koren Robinson reminiscent of recent draft classes.   Reggie Wayne last receiver of the 1st round.
2002  Early picks flamed out; Deion Branch and several later picks became serviceable
2003  *Andre Johnson (2nd off the board)  Hard to believe Charles Rogers went a pick before Johnson.  Was it the physical comparisons to Randy Moss?
2004  *Larry Fitzgerald (1st off the board)
2005  Roddy White (6th WR of the 1st round) - Braylon Edward at 1.3 to the Brownies
2006  Santonio Holmes (only 1st round WR)
2007  *Calvin Johnson  (Steve Smith in the 2nd)
2008  Jordy Nelson (no WRs selected in the first round)
2009  *Michael Crabtree (not a huge surprise the Raiders took a "speed" WR before Crabtree)
2010  *Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas
2011  *AJ Green and *Julio Jones (Randall Cobb & Torrey Smith later)
2012  Early picks flamed out;  Alshon Jeffery was 7th WR off the board.  Curiously, top prospects Justin Blackmon & Michael Floyd had substance issues.
2013  *DeAndre Hopkins (2nd WR off the board)  Hard to fathom Tavon Austin at #8 overall.

Guys who went to good situations?  Reggie Wayne went to a great situation with Peyton. Deion Branch had Brady. Jordy Nelson (and Randall Cobb) had Aaron Rodgers. Santonio Homes had Big Ben.  And Roddy White had Michael Vick and Matt Ryan.

Not so much?  Braylon Edwards went to Cleveland. Charles Rogers went to the early 2000s Lions.  Rogers, Blackmon and Floyd all had substance issues.

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Maybe it has more than just the QB when you consider a situation.  Being a high drafted WR is a difficult position in the modern era.  The league used to expect a rookie WR to sit, but ever since the Randy Moss rookie year, the trend has increasingly been to expect performance right out of the gate.  This pressure seems to be limited to 1st and second round picks.  Do some franchises do a better job at developing wr in this high pressure/high learning curve situation?  Maybe so.  

List of WR taken in the first two rounds by Houston since 2003:  

2003 - Andre Johnson

2013 - DeAndre Hopkins

2016 - Will Fuller

Fuller is not elite, but not really a bust either.

During that same period, here are the Pats picks at WR in the first two rounds:

2003 - Bethel Johnson

2006 - Chad Jackson

2013 - Aaron Dobson

That's bust city.

So what does this tell us concerning the values of current rookies?

DJ Moore went to Caro.  They have had Keary Colbert (2004), Dwayne Jarrett (2007) Kelvin Benjamin (2014) Devin Funchess (2015) and Curtis Samuel (2017).  Two startable players out of five picks.  I would say that the overall performance of these five is average (at best).  Not great news for DJ Moore.

Calvin Ridley went to Atlanta.  Michael Jenkins (2004) Eddie Royal (2008) Roddy White (2005) Julio Jones (2011).  Two outta four elite!  Ridley's chances are looking up!

Denver took Courtland Sutton.  Darius Watts (2004) Demaryius Thomas (2010) Cody Latimer (2014).  One startable players, albeit a WR1,  out of three picks.  This seems like an average situation for Sutton.

SF took Dante Pettis.  Rashaun Woods (2004), Michael Crabtree (2009) AJ Jenkins (2012).  One startable player, WR2, out of three picks.  Average at best for Pettis.

AZ took Christian Kirk.  WR Arizona has Bryant Johnson & Anquan Boldin (2003). Larry Fitzgerald (2004), and Michael Floyd (2008).  That's two HoF and one more startable player (Floyd was WR3), and Bryant was not a total miss, averaging over 500 yards a season from his third year to his ninth year.  Kirk is all smiles.

Chicago took Anthony Miller.  Mark Bradley (2005), Alshon Jeffrey (2012), Kevin White (2015)  One hit (WR1/2) and two big misses.  Average situation for Miller.

The Steelers took James Washington.  Santonio Holmes (2006) Limas Sweed (2008), JuJu (2017).  Two out of three startable players.  Above average chances for Washington.

Finally the Jags took DJ Chark.  Reggie Williams (2004) Matt Jones (2005) Justin Blackmun (2012) Marqise Lee(2014) Allen Robinson (2014).  The most recent two have done well following two one year wonders and a druggy.  I would say that is slightly above average.  Good news for Chark.

BAL- (3) Mark Clayton, Torrey Smith, Breshad Perriman - Not good.

BUF - (5) Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, James Hardy, Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins.  After Evans, Ouch.  Not even a generational talent like Watkins could make it work in Buff.

CIN - (4) Jerome Simpson, AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross.  A little above Average... no real busts so far and one elite.  

CLE - (5) Braylon Edwards, Brian Robiskie, Mohammed Massaquoi, Greg Little, Corey Coleman,.  Not Good... not good at all.

DAL - (1) Dez Bryant.  One for one.  100% hit rate!

DET - (6) Charles Rodgers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Calvin Johnson, Titus Young, Ryan Broles, Thats a bunch of failure and one bright shining star.  1 of 6 is not great.

GB - (5) Terrance Murphy Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Devante Adams - Rodgers shows that maybe some QBs make a situation great all by themselves.

IND - (2) Anthony Gonzalez, Phillip Dorsett, ... Gonzo was not, Dorsett is a huge ? so is Indy TBD??

KC -(3)  Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, Jonathan Baldwin, one of three startable.  Average.

LAC - (3) Vincent Jackson, Craig Davis, Mike Williams.  VJ did very well, so a little above average.

LAR - (3) Donnie Avery, Brian Quick, Tavon Austin. Meh.

MIA - (3) Ted Ginn, Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker   Ok, VG, and TBD.  Overall a little above average.

MIN - (5) Troy Williamson, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Corderelle patterson, LaQuon Treadwell.  Not great.

NO - (4) Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas.  Two of four in the Brees era.  That's pretty good.

NYG - (6) Sinorice Rice, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle, ODB, Sterling Shepherd.  Two of six were startable for more than a season, so 1 in 3 again, but the others were not too shabby, so above average.

NYJ - (2) Stephen Hill, Devin Smith.  Two swings, two misses.

OAK - (2) Darius Heyward-Bey, Amari Cooper.  Neither was a true bust, so definitely above average.  

PHI - (5) Reggie Brown, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor.  Two hits and another possible of 5 so above average.

SEA - (2) Golden Tate, Paul Richardson.  One hit and one still possible.

TBB - (4) Michael Clayton, Dexter Jackson, Arrelious Benn, Mike Evans, A bust, a one hit wonder, a WR4 and a WR1.  Average.

TEN - (6) Tyrone Calico, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, DGB, Corey Davis.  Davis' stock just went way down in my eyes.

WAS - (4) Taylor Jacobs, Devin Thomas, Malcom Kelly, Josh Doctson.  Ouch. 

by my count there have been 120 WR taken in the first two rounds since 2003.  of those 120, a little less than 1 in three turned in more than one top 24 fantasy season (making them a startable player in a 12 team WR (x2) league).  Less than one in three means that in response to OP, this position has always been hard to predict.

However, certain franchises have certainly done better than others.  QB plays an important role, but it is not the only factor.  

One final note... as i glanced through all the drafts, it seems like every franchise has one or two WR drafted in rounds 3 or later that became fantasy relevant... the hit rate was far lower overall, but appeared to be more consistent across franchises.

I think it’s just a mix of random chance and small sample sizes creating an illusion of some kind of change.

lol....the title of the thread is "Why has the WR position become more difficult to predict?"....I would venture to say for some it's because they are factoring in too many meaningless things like much of what is in this thread and they are overthinking it and making it more difficult on themselves....paralysis by over-analysis....

Stinkin Ref said:

lol....the title of the thread is "Why has the WR position become more difficult to predict?"....I would venture to say for some it's because they are factoring in too many meaningless things like much of what is in this thread and they are overthinking it and making it more difficult on themselves....paralysis by over-analysis....

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agree. nothing has changed. it's just as difficult or easy as it was years ago. people are over analyzing. 1/8 of an inch matters l or 0.05 seconds in a 40 time. or people hear a guy went vegan, or his spiritual advisor isn't allowed on the sidelines 

Dr. Dan said:

agree. nothing has changed. it's just as difficult or easy as it was years ago. people are over analyzing. 1/8 of an inch matters l or 0.05 seconds in a 40 time. or people hear a guy went vegan, or his spiritual advisor isn't allowed on the sidelines 

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I actually give more weight to those things than to many of the things mentioned here about previous players, etc

Stinkin Ref said:

I actually give more weight to those things than to many of the things mentioned here about previous players, etc

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Which things mentioned so you consider meaningless noise?

Stinkin Ref said:

lol....the title of the thread is "Why has the WR position become more difficult to predict?"....I would venture to say for some it's because they are factoring in too many meaningless things like much of what is in this thread and they are overthinking it and making it more difficult on themselves....paralysis by over-analysis....

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I think small sample sizes create illusions. You’ve posted quite a few times that you can pick out the busts. I highly doubt that if you have that it’s anything more than short term luck. You can avoid a few guys like Tavon Austin or Treadwell but it’s always a gamble. 

Ilov80s said:

Which things mentioned so you consider meaningless noise?

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Posts 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 17, 22.....I’m not trying to get sideways, it may mean something to some people...I just don’t get it...I think you assess each situation independently on its own under current circumstances...I think certain things in the past are just simply that....the past.... and really don’t mean much moving forward in fantasy.....I think trying to factor in some of the things in these posts contributes to the question in the title of this thread...

voiceofunreason said:

I think small sample sizes create illusions. You’ve posted quite a few times that you can pick out the busts. I highly doubt that if you have that it’s anything more than short term luck. You can avoid a few guys like Tavon Austin or Treadwell but it’s always a gamble. 

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When did I say I can pick out busts?  I think you have me confused with somebody else. 

This is more a guess than a hypothesis since I don’t follow college football but press coverage seems to be something the rooks have trouble adjusting to — if the incoming wr’s have issues with separation to begin with AND THEN have to adjust to physical NFL press coverage.... that’s kind of a lot to get thru as a youngster. 

2014 is the outlier.

And it influenced fantasy football players minds! We are still recovering!

It wasn't long ago that we had the 3rd year WR breakout theory. 

1) The wide receiver position requires a lot of skill to play effectively 

2) NFL teams don't have as much time to coach and practice those skills since the CBA was changed

3) NFL teams still scout receivers based on physical talent and skills, but still believe they can coach up a "raw" player

4) Fantasy owners look at 40 time, height, hand size,  and NFL draft position, but all of those over emphasize physical attributes over receiver skill.

5) NFL offenses have evolved to spread the ball around to more targets - specialists at tight end and running back who catch the ball, and three wide receiver sets with a speed guy/big guy/slot guy. 

6) Fantasy success is a formula of target volume and efficiency. 

7) Defenses have evolved to reduce the efficiency of the top targets - teams have a big corner, a speed corner, a nickel guy, safeties and linebackers who excel at covering tight ends and running backs, and so on. 

8) Target volume and fantasy efficiency are a function of how well you do vs your defender(s), compared with how well your teammates do against their defenders.

9) Rookies are rarely so much better against their defender than their teammates are, that they demand a big target volume.

10) The ones who are that good are usually either highly skilled or have elite speed. 

11) Good (not elite) size and good skill is better than good size and good speed or good skill and good speed. 

12) The exception is when an elite quarterback works with good sixer and speed.  Elite qbs will find ways to improve the skills of their best receivers.

Examples

4) Fantasy owners look at 40 time, height, hand size,  and NFL draft position, but all of those over emphasize physical attributes over receiver skill.

You're often betting on a Mike Williams reaching his high athletic ceiling instead of taking the cooper kupp who isn't particularly big or fast but has well developed skills. 

7) Defenses have evolved to reduce the efficiency of the top targets - teams have a big corner, a speed corner, a nickel guy, safeties and linebackers who excel at covering tight ends and running backs, and so on.

So if aj green is facing an elite d back and Brandon lafell isn't getting open against his guy, green is still going to get peppered with targets.  But if John Ross starts beating guys lafell couldn't, and lafell can beat a nickel guy more often, they both could take targets away from green... even if green has a career year in his own right.  

10) The ones who are that good are usually either highly skilled or have elite speed. 

Elite speed gives you a Martavis Bryant or Tyreek Hill, who were able to excel even when they were raw and could improve as their skills improve 

12) The exception is when an elite quarterback works with good size and speed.  Elite qbs will find ways to improve the skills of their best receivers.

Michael Thomas was successful because he had the tools and enough skill that he could do things brandin cooks couldn't do as a possession receiver and as a red zone threat. Brees took care of the rest 

Stinkin Ref said:

Posts 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 17, 22.....I’m not trying to get sideways, it may mean something to some people...I just don’t get it...I think you assess each situation independently on its own under current circumstances...I think certain things in the past are just simply that....the past.... and really don’t mean much moving forward in fantasy.....I think trying to factor in some of the things in these posts contributes to the question in the title of this thread...

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I pretty much agree with this philosophy.  The reason I started the thread was because of the hype and then the lack of success of the recent drafts.  I expected so much more from the Josh Doctsons, Corey Colemans and Laquon Treadwells of the league.  I think several of the guys drafted recently were as highly regarded as DJ Moore is today.  Many people have made the argument that there is a correlation between NFL draft position and success, so a first round WR bust is significant.

Some excellent perspectives posted.  Boston Fred listed several but a key, to me, is defensive focus on the top targets and the evolution/reaction of using more targets.  The notion that we put too much stock in measurable but not enough in skill or even toughness (Steve Smith anyone?) is spot on.  But, to be fair, at times we have to assume draft position and skill are related and intangibles are just that...  Brisco's "Randy Moss Effect" is true too.  I can remember being much more patient with rookie receivers.  Unlike other league mates, I was always drafting for a year out - an approach that makes a Courtland Sutton more appealing this season.

Lots of speculation that 8 RBs will come off the board first this year.  I hold picks in the 7-8 range in several leagues.  The teams all have strong RBs on paper - lots of IRed players from last season including David Johnson.  I'll have the choice (most likely) of taking the 7th best RB or the top WR.  I don't want to debate that choice here but it will be interesting.  Maybe I'll trade down.  Maybe I'll use Hank Moody's implied advice and trade the pick for a proven WR.  Maybe if a DJ Moore were paired with an elite QB the choice would be easier?

This is actually a really great thread. I very rarely draft a WR because it’s so hard to predict. On my one Dynasty team I traded for Julio, Nuke and OBJ. I drafted JuJu to my Devy squad but I also drafted White, Doctson, Coleman, (all Devy) took Cole off the waiver wire.

Whats my point.....I was drafting WRs that were hit and miss, was over thinking certain things like ref said (I don’t agree 100% but he makes some valid points) then I started trading for them. Since my original picks are always at the end of the draft I used it every time on a different position or a Devy player in which case I was actually drafting a year out which turned out to be more successful for me because I was front loading the picks.

Tex

ratbast said:

2014 is the outlier.

And it influenced fantasy football players minds! We are still recovering!

It wasn't long ago that we had the 3rd year WR breakout theory. 

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And maybe some of those 2014 WRs weren't as good as they once appeared:

Kelvin Benjamin: obvioulsy the benefactor of garbage time and a complete lack of other targets, he doesn't have much fantasy value at this moment

Sammy: if he doesn't produce this year he will be considered a pretty big bust, he's already deeply disappointed anyone that invested in him as a rookie

Mike Evans: he's been really up and down, his ups were very high and downs weren't too bad, however I still have some questions about how good he acually is and how much was just a result of him being heavily targeted on a team without a lot of options. Evans has been really inefficient and has no YAC ability at all. Can he keep up his production now that Tampa has more weapons?

AR15: He has one mega season and 3 duds. 2018 is a really big year for his value.

John Brown: All the promise has turned to frustration

Jordan Matthews: a few productive seasons and now he may be a roster bubble guy

Martavis: See John Brown

Moncrief: See Martavis

Allen Hurns: see Moncrief ...but stop the presses he is now a number 1 WR again? 

Ilov80s said:

And maybe some of those 2014 WRs weren't as good as they once appeared:

Kelvin Benjamin: obvioulsy the benefactor of garbage time and a complete lack of other targets, he doesn't have much fantasy value at this moment

Sammy: if he doesn't produce this year he will be considered a pretty big bust, he's already deeply disappointed anyone that invested in him as a rookie

Mike Evans: he's been really up and down, his ups were very high and downs weren't too bad, however I still have some questions about how good he acually is and how much was just a result of him being heavily targeted on a team without a lot of options. Evans has been really inefficient and has no YAC ability at all. Can he keep up his production now that Tampa has more weapons?

AR15: He has one mega season and 3 duds. 2018 is a really big year for his value.

John Brown: All the promise has turned to frustration

Jordan Matthews: a few productive seasons and now he may be a roster bubble guy

Martavis: See John Brown

Moncrief: See Martavis

Allen Hurns: see Moncrief ...but stop the presses he is now a number 1 WR again? 

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Moncrief!  There is another guy I thought would hit.  Said to have a good work ethic, good combination if size and speed and paired with a young, elite QB.  Granted, he and Luck were seldom on the field together but another bust for me personally.