Deshaun Watson Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a key feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Deshaun Watson, QB - Houston Texans

Watson wasn't merely good or even great as a rookie. He actually put up the best rookie quarterback season in history, as well as one of the best overall quarterback seasons we've ever seen. Among his many startling marks, note that he posted:

-          More standard fantasy points per game (24.6) than any rookie ever

-          The NFL’s eighth-most adjusted net yards per attempt (7.19) among qualifiers (at least 150 attempts)

-          An exceptional touchdown rate (9.3%) that registered higher than the career-best marks of Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, or Ben Roethlisberger

-          38.4 rushing yards per game, 23rd-most from a quarterback over the past 20 years

Obviously, the first question to the Watson Game is to determine what carries over, and what regresses. His touchdown production seems destined to drop - last year 17 of his 19 touchdown passes came from the red zone, where his TD rate (48.1%) was more than double the league rate (21.7%). It's safe to assume we won't be seeing Will Fuller score 7 times on 15 catches again.

So, where do we slot in Watson? Do we pay the premium (Round 4 or 5) that early drafts have demanded? Do we merely eyeball him and catch him if he slides into 6 or 7? Or do we go hands-off, considering the glut of QB1 types available rounds later?

Let's hear it.

Deshaun Watson currently has the same odds to win NFL MVP as Derek Carr and Dak Prescott (+2000) according to BetOnline, so the oversimplified answer is to go hands-off. 

His 2017 sample (281 combined yards and 3 TDs per game) is impressive even for a rookie but when you take away his first two games, the numbers get comically better: 331 combined yards per game with 19 total TDs in five games.  He has Nuk Hopkins and Will Fuller to throw to and an underwhelming running game so its no stretch to believe 4000 combined yards with 35+ TDs is very possible but would that make him worth his ADP (currently sitting at 45.3 according to Fantasy Pros)? He would have to approach 2015 Cam Newton 4500 combined yards and 45 TDs to pay that price tag off in my opinion which would mean spreading out his 2017 over a full 16 games. If you are buying in on the ACL being ok and his rushing numbers staying where they are the juice might be worth the squeeze but that would be one of the best QB seasons of all time.

Additionally, Russell Wilson was far and away the QB1 overall last year but he was only worth 3 PPG over the next three (Cam, Brady, Alex Smith) and just 5 PPG more than the QB10 (Dak) overall according to ESPN scoring. 

Considering opportunity cost, depth of the position, and the fact he is coming of an ACL injury I will have zero shares of Deshaun Watson this year. Some guys I will likely have instead:

• Ben Roethlisberger (ADP - 113.8)
  
• Phillip Rivers (APD - 120.8)
  
• Patrick Mahomes (ADP - 129.5)
  
• Marcus Mariota (ADP - 143.8)
  
• Alex Smith (ADP - 147.5)
  

The fact that Mariota and Smith are basically free should be enough to push anyone off of Watson at full-sticker price.

Kam2 said:

Additionally, Russell Wilson was far and away the QB1 overall last year but he was only worth 3 PPG over the next three (Cam, Brady, Alex Smith) and just 5 PPG more than the QB10 (Dak) overall according to ESPN scoring. 

Considering opportunity cost, depth of the position, and the fact he is coming of an ACL injury I will have zero shares of Deshaun Watson this year. 

Click to expand...

The draft is always about risk/reward.  What I can’t get my head around is why in early drafts, Watson is going almost two full rounds earlier than Wilson.  The last 3 seasons, Wilson has averaged (passing) 4075/30/10, (rushing) 466/2.  And one of those seasons he played on one leg.

Jalen Ramsey just made a comment about tapping the brakes on Jimmy G.  His argument was that he was an unknown commodity, so you couldn’t really scheme against him.  To the extent that this is valid, this same logic applies to Watson.  Watson has played but 6.5 games.  There likely are some growing pains to endure, and while he showed spectacularly prior to his injury, there is still a decent amount of variance related to his short and long term outlook (positive and/or negative).

Watson may be worth a high pick, but 1) there is still risk involved with him and 2) at the moment, he’s being overdrafted.

I feel like Watson will get drafted a lot higher than I'd feel good about taking him. He was very lucky last year, with a lot of bad throws that turned into TD's thanks to defenders falling or amazing unsustainable plays by Hopkins.  He's since suffered a torn ACL, likely serious curbing his rushing upside, and the Texans gave him zero offensive line help, likely making it less likely he'll have the same success on the improvisational plays. The defense also should be better, likely leading to fewer shootouts.

I project Watson for 3,900-30-14 passing and 200-2 rushing. I just don't see the rushing numbers being so big after the ACL injury. Watson at 45 overall is way too risky. I wouldn't even look in his direction until 70 or so. That said, I do think he's a top-5ish QB.