George Kittle Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

You guys probably know the deal by now -- after a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are one of the main features on the site during the preseason. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary fell off, but we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

George Kittle has the look of a young player on the rise at a tight end position that looks especially top-heavy this season. Like many 49ers skill players, Kittle saw a bump when Jimmy Garoppolo took over at quarterback, ranking as a cumulative top-10 tight end option over the final five weeks of 2017. Kittle's ADP has risen a bit recently, but he can still be had in the 12th round of fantasy drafts, making him a potential bargain starter. 

What do you guys think -- is Kittle a worthy tight end punt option you're expecting to emerge as an every-week starter? Can he maintain the fantasy value he had last year with Garoppolo? Improve upon it? Are there other players being drafted in Kittle's ADP-range that make better punt plays? Is it worth spending a mid-round pick at tight end this year if you choose not to draft Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce early?

Let's hear it!

I love ol'George.  I have a feeling he'll be on many of my teams this year, especially if I'm getting him 10th round or later.  I think he could easily finish top 8 at the position.

He really is a talented TE.  He's not only a good receiving TE but he's also a great blocker.  He should develop into a great NFL TE.

I'm likely letting someone else draft Kittle. He's not a full time player, as Garrett Celek plays a lot, and is a much better blocker, while also having reliable hands. 

Kittle's numbers spiked slightly when Garoppolo took over, but that was also with no Garcon, and now Dante Pettis and Jerick McKinnon(who is way better than Hyde as a receiver) have been added as well, making the target pie even smaller. He also had almost 20% of his total yards, in a meaningless week 17 game. 

I can't shake the feeling that Kittle is this year's Austin Hooper. 

My projection: 40-400-3. 

Picked him up on the waivers early last year in dynasty after McDonald trade. I've actually never really been wow'd by him. But there are two guys in my league who seems to really, really want him.

I guess it really depends on what kind of offense Shanny is going to run. Will it be more of the Atlanta Tony G offense? How much overlap was there between them? Because post-Tony tight end was a black hole (phrasing) in Atlanta under Shanny. But maybe it's just that the talent wasn't there?

Either way, I've been trying to pick up as many shares I can of the JimmyG passing game. In redraft I'd be very happy punting on TE and grabbing him in round 10 or whatever.

travdogg said:

I'm likely letting someone else draft Kittle. He's not a full time player, as Garrett Celek plays a lot, and is a much better blocker, while also having reliable hands. 

Kittle's numbers spiked slightly when Garoppolo took over, but that was also with no Garcon, and now Dante Pettis and Jerick McKinnon(who is way better than Hyde as a receiver) have been added as well, making the target pie even smaller. He also had almost 20% of his total yards, in a meaningless week 17 game. 

I can't shake the feeling that Kittle is this year's Austin Hooper. 

My projection: 40-400-3. 

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They really should use Kittle and Celek in double sets more.  Celek was the better blocker last year but Kittle is still a good blocker as well.  Using those two for blocking and receiving can be a major weapon.

those measurables, tho

travdogg said:

I'm likely letting someone else draft Kittle. He's not a full time player, as Garrett Celek plays a lot, and is a much better blocker, while also having reliable hands. 

Kittle's numbers spiked slightly when Garoppolo took over, but that was also with no Garcon, and now Dante Pettis and Jerick McKinnon(who is way better than Hyde as a receiver) have been added as well, making the target pie even smaller. He also had almost 20% of his total yards, in a meaningless week 17 game. 

I can't shake the feeling that Kittle is this year's Austin Hooper. 

My projection: 40-400-3. 

Click to expand...

The wrs don't scare me to say the least. Goodwin has kicked around the league, Garcon is okay but nothing great and getting old, and Pettis seems like more of a special team and gadget player they overpaid for. Having said all of that I don't know a ton about Kittle but I'm holding him in a lot of dynasty leagues and hoping he keeps progressing. There's some upside for sure but he's still a young te and it takes time. I wouldn't want him as my starter this year.

FF Ninja said:

those measurables, tho

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Right?  Might impressive metrics.

Hey guys, I know this thread didn't spur much discussion, but the Kittle Spotlight is live. Props to @travdogg for making a cameo. Dig in and hit me with your best shot:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-george-kittle-is-the-late-round-tight-end-to-target

Don’t know why, but TE’s feel extremely undifferentiated this year.  We know about Gronk/Kelce/Ertz.  Then after that, I don’t even feel like there are many lottery tickets out there.  

When you have a lot of 750/6 guys at the position (if that) you kind of treat what you get from the position as gravy.

So when you look at a Kittle, Njoku or an OJ Howard, if they do their own version of ‘blowing up’  is that much more than 750/6? And let’s say the ticket you buy busts, you can generally find a 600-650/4 TE on the WW.

A lot of people are excited about SF, but I’m hedging on that offense and team having some growing pains.  People don’t recognize that 8-8 would still represent progress.  Kittle had a nice rookie year, but even when Shanny had the 2016 Falcons, TE wasn’t featured.  So unless he Gronk’s out, I suspect his value will be much more football related than FF related.

If he’s there late, he makes sense as an option, but by no means reach.

I hated having to trade this guy, but I got Kelce out of the deal.

I think he's due for a nice season and a good career.  I think he'll finish in the top-10 this season.

Phil Alexander said:

Hey guys, I know this thread didn't spur much discussion, but the Kittle Spotlight is live. Props to @travdogg for making a cameo. Dig in and hit me with your best shot:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-george-kittle-is-the-late-round-tight-end-to-target

Click to expand...

"The expectation Kittle will establish consistent fantasy value this season is directly tied to the performance of the 49ers offense [and Jimmy Garopolo] in the final five games of 2017."

This.  The problem with this analysis is that small data set. 

There are some phenomenal athletes in the NFL and some become phenomenal football players.  Rarely does it happen quickly without some pain.  

Five games.  Five games playing for his salary.  Short enough to take the league by surprise.  Long enough for the 13 defensive coordinators to game plan against Jimmy G over the entire summer. Especially with the hype.  It seems too soon. He is not Tom Brady.  At least not yet.

Regarding Kittle and the Cooley comparison.... I remember Chris Cooley.  Chris Cooley was on my fantasy teams.  George Kittle is no Chris Cooley, Sir. 

However, I like that the kid is working on his catching with Garopolo and bulking up his body, But lets not get carried away.  

50 - 630 - 3 TD 

 

Well I guess this is late but my post in the Kittle thread

The TE being selected after Kittle are Njoku and OJ Howard who I would likely take before him because I think they are better players, but any of these 3 are players who I would like to have on my team.

As a rookie Kittle was TE 19 last season. In 15 games with 7 starts he had 63 targets 43 receptions 515 yards 12 ypr 2 TD 68% catch rate.

These are not bad numbers for a rookie TE and if he can improve slightly with a better catch rate for example, as well as gets more targets, he could finish higher than TE 19 which is perhaps what to consider as his floor numbers or worth.

In the 5 games with Garoppolo KIttle had 19 targets 15 receptions 324 yards in those last 5 games. The last 3 games being pretty solid, so showing him growing in the offense.

He generated 62% of his yards with Garapolo in these last 5 games, although he did break out in game 5 of the season against the Colts with 9 targets 7 receptions 83 yards and a TD. That game was followed by 8 targets 4 receptions 46 yards against Washington. This was 88% of Kittles total yards from these two games and the last 5 weeks of the season. He missed game 10 and he pretty much disappeared (was hurt) from games 7-12 the 49ers did play a difficult stretch of defenses over this time frame as well perhaps contributing to that also.

If I extrapolate the 5 games of Kittles production with Garoppolo to a 16 game season it would be 61 targets 48 receptions (79% catch rate) 1037 yards 3 TD

The yards are so high because Kittle averaged 21.6 yards per reception from Garoppolo. Now that is not likely sustainable, but the big play ability is there and Garoppolo knows how to find him. This is a terrific number showing Kittles speed is translating and that he has big play ability. The catch rate is well above average as well, showing that there is going to be some consistency of these two connecting.

I think Kittle could have 80 targets this season, which would be a slight increase to 5 targets per game instead of the 4.2 targets per game he had as a rookie. The upside would be 100 targets and downside 60 targets (about what he did last year).

80 targets at 73% catch rate would be 58 receptions at 12 ypr is 701 yards 3 TD 88 points in standard scoring leagues or 146 in PPR leagues. These points would have finished as TE 12 using the average points scored of the last 3 years

So I think he is worth the price at around pick 120 where current ADP shows him to be. I don't think I would take him over Njoku though. Howard is a tougher call for me as Brate is still there in his way. Kittle is in a better situation to be their most targeted TE as he was last season.

There was also some good comments from Hawkeye fans in his thread.

This post has me thinking the hype is getting too high on him. Throwing him in package deal for Anthony Miller that will hopefully let me finally acquire him. I like Kittle but if I can get tangible ROI on a ww add with unrealized potential I'll  take that all day. 

The SF offense is going to be good this year. Honestly if he gets enough red zone targets......and he was on a crazy yardage pace with Garoppolo.......that seems like the ingredients for a crazy ceiling........

Hairy Snowman said:

"The expectation Kittle will establish consistent fantasy value this season is directly tied to the performance of the 49ers offense [and Jimmy Garopolo] in the final five games of 2017."

This.  The problem with this analysis is that small data set. 

There are some phenomenal athletes in the NFL and some become phenomenal football players.  Rarely does it happen quickly without some pain.  

Five games.  Five games playing for his salary.  Short enough to take the league by surprise.  Long enough for the 13 defensive coordinators to game plan against Jimmy G over the entire summer. Especially with the hype.  It seems too soon. He is not Tom Brady.  At least not yet.

Regarding Kittle and the Cooley comparison.... I remember Chris Cooley.  Chris Cooley was on my fantasy teams.  George Kittle is no Chris Cooley, Sir. 

However, I like that the kid is working on his catching with Garopolo and bulking up his body, But lets not get carried away.  

50 - 630 - 3 TD 

 

Click to expand...

I wasn't comparing Cooley or any of Shanahan's past TEs to Kittle as a player. Cooley was mentioned in the context of saying Shanahan has had success with tight ends before -- same with Owen Daniels, Fred Davis, etc. It strikes me that when Shanahan drafts a player, sends the incumbent former second-round pick ahead of him on the depth chart packing and features him in the offense until he gets hurt,  it's safe to say he's found the guy he's looking for.

Your point about extrapolating small samples is valid. The schedule for Garoppolo's starts last year wasn't daunting either. But Garoppolo looked competent in his starts before coming to SF too and he was learning a new offense on the fly last year. I can't see his numbers cratering with a full off-season to work with the playbook and his teammates, especially when you consider he's a candidate for TD progression. Even if those five games were his ceiling, I'd be shocked if he regressed to worse than a league average QB.

For me, it comes down to the tight end position and draft equity. If I'm not taking Gronk, I'm definitely not spending a mid-round pick at TE. If we're comparing the situations of upside guys being taken in the 9thish round, I can see taking a stab at Jordan Reed over Kittle, but if the choices are Trey Burton, OJ Howard, and David Njoku, Kittle is an easy decision for me from an opportunity standpoint.

left with a shoulder injury tonight.

severity unknown.

Started him since Reed was on a bye and it worked out nice. 

I know very little about him but man he looked fast on that TD!

He did show good wheels. Maybe I'll kick the can on these "should I keep Kittle" thoughts for another week.

Mr.Blonde said:

He did show good wheels. Maybe I'll kick the can on these "should I keep Kittle" thoughts for another week.

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I was looking for anybody I could find to plug in for Kittle this week but just couldn't find anybody I liked better, and I really didn't want to start Kittle.

Glad I did start him.

I was "forced" to start him because someone else sniped Eifert.