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Trip’s top 10 Most Undervalued WRs – Precamp Edition (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
We had good participation in the RB thread so I thought I would give the WRs a shot.   (ADP per FF calculator and FFPC,  PPR 12 team leagues)

1.    Larry Fitzgerald ADP WR#15 3.09 Overall

Larry Legend was the #4 PPR WR last year and now he has dropped to #15 because no more Arians-Palmer???   Larry showed no signs of slowing down and IMHO has a better QB situation.  With very little competition for targets, Larry is locked in for another top 10 year and screams value.  Don’t overthink this one.

2.   Pierre Garcon – ADP WR#31 and 6.12 Overall

Garcon was on pace for 80 receptions and 1000 yards last year before succumbing to injury.  I don’t like him as much in standard leagues because TDs may be low as witnessed by his 2017 season, but you can do a lot worse at WR31 in PPR drafts given Garcon’s status in Shanahan’s Garropolo offense.

3.   Robby Anderson – ADP WR#43 9.03 Overall

Anderson finished #19 in PPR formats last year and that was with a new coach and offense..  Anderson has a bit more competition with Pryor and Enunwa returning but both Prior and Enunwa are coming back from injury and don’t have established roles or rapport with McCown like Anderson does.  Last year wasn’t an outlier either as Anderson flashed his rookie year and had one of the best rookie years in 2016…way under the radar.    I’ll be surprised if Anderson doesn’t provide value this year yet again.

4.   Devin Funchess – ADP WR#35 7.12 Overall

Funchess finished 22nd last year and that was with Kelvin Benjamin plodding alongside him.  Now Funchess is the man and the coaching staff believes he’s just “scratching the surface” of his capability….Funchess will be on most of my teams.

5.   Martavis Bryant – ADP WR#53 12.01 Overall 

Martavis is the best WR on the Raiders period.   Clearly there is some off the field risk that goes with the on-field reward, but Martavis is one of the few WRs going after the 10th round that can deliver WR2 value.  Martavis is a good gamble in the 11th round.  

6.   Kenny Stills – ADP WR#50 11.04 Overall

Quietly put up a very solid season and actually has consistently scored TDs despite Miami’s consistent struggles.   Stills finished 29th in WR scoring last year and nothing has changed.  With excellent big play ability as demonstrated by his career 16.1 YPC, Stills is a very solid play in the 12th round.

7.   Christian Kirk – ADP WR#62 13.12 Overall

Kirk was running with the first team in OTAs and say what you want about Sam Bradford, when healthy he can chuck the ball.   Kirk was a heck of a playmaker in college and has a good chance at surprising with a nice opportunity and talent combo. 

8.   Geronimo Allison – ADP WR#59 13.06 Overall

Allison is #3 on the depth chart but Cobb, the current  #2, is in a walking boot and doesn’t have near the big play ability of Allison which Allison demonstrated last year.  Allison boasts a career YPC over 18.   It always seems to take Rodgers a year or two to gain trust in his WRs and this is year 3 for Allison in Green Bay.   Allison is on almost all of my deep rosters.

9.   Ryan Grant – ADP W R#82 24.02 Overall

For really deep leagues you can do a lot worse than Andrew Luck’s potential  #2 WR.   Grant quietly had 45 receptions last year for the Redskins and is IMHO the 2nd best WR on the roster and should win the starting gig.   One of my favorite deep sleepers in large roster formats, particularly if Luck comes back to Pro Bowl form.

10. Terrelle Pryor – ADP WR#87 25.09 Overall

Another deep sleeper, but one where even casual fans know the name. A trendy middle round upside pick last year after a thousand yard season with Cleveland, Pryor blames injury for his struggles in Washington and those injuries were eventually confirmed and ended his season.  If Pryor can have a big year in Cleveland he can have a big year wit the Jets.  Who knows if the targets will be there, but at this ultra cheap price you would be hard pressed to find as much previously demonstrated upside at WR.  

 
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good list. I'm surprised some of those are going where they are. 

I disagree about Allison. he didn't take a step last year and looks like nothing more than a wr4, maybe 3. honestly, you've got the right team, wrong player. whichever rookie wins the wr4 job is likely to compete heavily for the wr3. IMO that's Moore, which can be had for a last round pick. others have made good arguments for different rookies, and they're legitimate arguments. a battle to watch. Allison fell out of Rodgers favor with routes and drops. IMO hes JAG, so hopefully he took some strides this offseason...  GB needs someone to step up in that role, and there will be opportunity as you pointed out

kirk I also disagree with, for reasons said in his thread. 

grant I'm not sure wins the wr2 job. seemed Rogers had it locked up. but who knows. if hes wr2 hes a steal. 

overall good list.

 
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It looks like these are non-ppr ADP from FF Calculator. Guys like Fitz & Garcon are going a lot earlier in PPR.

 
It looks like these are non-ppr ADP from FF Calculator. Guys like Fitz & Garcon are going a lot earlier in PPR.
thanks for the heads up...I've corrected the numbers...I had both lists up.   :ph34r:

 
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Good stuff. Will be following this thread. Your RB thread let to good discussion. I had Fitz the last two years and am looking to grab him again this year. Just love the guy. 

 
I'd like to see that thread if you can point me in the right direction.  
biabreakable had a good target breakdown, which leaves kirk anywhere from 20 to 100 depending who wins that wr2 job. he has some talent to compete with. if he does win the wr2 job I completely agree that hes great value, but at the same time I'm not sure what is left after Fitzgerald and DJ. Even RSJ could increase targets to the te. 

his player spotlight thread offers some input but not as much as the thread linked. in that thread I agreed that 40/500 was a reasonable projection 

 
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I like the Robby Anderson & Martavis Bryant calls. I also like Jarvis Landry (WR#25, 5.09), Julian Edelman (WR#29, 6.08), DJ Moore (WR#44, 9.12), and Kelvin Benjamin (WR#48, 10.11).

 
biabreakable had a good target breakdown, which leaves kirk anywhere from 20 to 100 depending who wins that wr2 job. he has some talent to compete with. if he does win the wr2 job I completely agree that hes great value, but at the same time I'm not sure what is left after Fitzgerald and DJ. Even RSJ could increase targets to the te. 

his player spotlight thread offers some input but not as much as the thread linked. in that thread I agreed that 40/500 was a reasonable projection 
Not sure why the search function didn't pull that up.  

Thanks :hifive:

 
We had good participation in the RB thread so I thought I would give the WRs a shot.   (ADP per FF calculator and FFPC,  PPR 12 team leagues)

1.    Larry Fitzgerald ADP WR#15 3.09 Overall

Larry Legend was the #4 PPR WR last year and now he has dropped to #15 because no more Arians-Palmer???   Larry showed no signs of slowing down and IMHO has a better QB situation.  With very little competition for targets, Larry is locked in for another top 10 year and screams value.  Don’t overthink this one.

2.   Pierre Garcon – ADP WR#31 and 6.12 Overall

Garcon was on pace for 80 receptions and 1000 yards last year before succumbing to injury.  I don’t like him as much in standard leagues because TDs may be low as witnessed by his 2017 season, but you can do a lot worse at WR31 in PPR drafts given Garcon’s status in Shanahan’s Garropolo offense.

3.   Robby Anderson – ADP WR#43 9.03 Overall

Anderson finished #19 in PPR formats last year and that was with a new coach and offense..  Anderson has a bit more competition with Pryor and Enunwa returning but both Prior and Enunwa are coming back from injury and don’t have established roles or rapport with McCown like Anderson does.  Last year wasn’t an outlier either as Anderson flashed his rookie year and had one of the best rookie years in 2016…way under the radar.    I’ll be surprised if Anderson doesn’t provide value this year yet again.

4.   Devin Funchess – ADP WR#35 7.12 Overall

Funchess finished 22nd last year and that was with Kelvin Benjamin plodding alongside him.  Now Funchess is the man and the coaching staff believes he’s just “scratching the surface” of his capability….Funchess will be on most of my teams.

5.   Martavis Bryant – ADP WR#53 12.01 Overall 

Martavis is the best WR on the Raiders period.   Clearly there is some off the field risk that goes with the on-field reward, but Martavis is one of the few WRs going after the 10th round that can deliver WR2 value.  Martavis is a good gamble in the 11th round.  

6.   Kenny Stills – ADP WR#50 11.04 Overall

Quietly put up a very solid season and actually has consistently scored TDs despite Miami’s consistent struggles.   Stills finished 29th in WR scoring last year and nothing has changed.  With excellent big play ability as demonstrated by his career 16.1 YPC, Stills is a very solid play in the 12th round.

7.   Christian Kirk – ADP WR#62 13.12 Overall

Kirk was running with the first team in OTAs and say what you want about Sam Bradford, when healthy he can chuck the ball.   Kirk was a heck of a playmaker in college and has a good chance at surprising with a nice opportunity and talent combo. 

8.   Geronimo Allison – ADP WR#59 13.06 Overall

Allison is #3 on the depth chart but Cobb, the current  #2, is in a walking boot and doesn’t have near the big play ability of Allison which Allison demonstrated last year.  Allison boasts a career YPC over 18.   It always seems to take Rodgers a year or two to gain trust in his WRs and this is year 3 for Allison in Green Bay.   Allison is on almost all of my deep rosters.

9.   Ryan Grant – ADP W R#82 24.02 Overall

For really deep leagues you can do a lot worse than Andrew Luck’s potential  #2 WR.   Grant quietly had 45 receptions last year for the Redskins and is IMHO the 2nd best WR on the roster and should win the starting gig.   One of my favorite deep sleepers in large roster formats, particularly if Luck comes back to Pro Bowl form.

10. Terrelle Pryor – ADP WR#87 25.09 Overall

Another deep sleeper, but one where even casual fans know the name. A trendy middle round upside pick last year after a thousand yard season with Cleveland, Pryor blames injury for his struggles in Washington and those injuries were eventually confirmed and ended his season.  If Pryor can have a big year in Cleveland he can have a big year wit the Jets.  Who knows if the targets will be there, but at this ultra cheap price you would be hard pressed to find as much previously demonstrated upside at WR.  
Good stuff

 
I like the Robby Anderson & Martavis Bryant calls. I also like Jarvis Landry (WR#25, 5.09), Julian Edelman (WR#29, 6.08), DJ Moore (WR#44, 9.12), and Kelvin Benjamin (WR#48, 10.11).
I'm going to do an overvalued thread and Landry will make that list.  I know the Browns paid him a boatload of money, but I'm hesitant to pay a 5th round price for a WR in a new system, with a new QB in an offense that has historically sucked.  Also, I just happen to like a lot of WRs that are going after him such as Edelman, Garcon and Funchess.

I like Edelman and am so so on Benjamin. 

I'm undecided on DJ Moore.  .I think Funchess is the guy in Carolina and Moore could struggle for targets...we'll see what the news out of camp and preseason is.

 
There are so many good sleepers at WR in rounds 11-13. I almost certainly will go WR-WR-WR there in drafts.
I'm considering a lot of redraft strategies that include this exact tactic....go heavy on all the other positions in the earlier rounds and rely on value at WR.  So much WR value this year.

 
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I'm going to do an overvalued thread and Landry will make that list.  I know the Browns paid him a boatload of money, but I'm hesitant to pay a 5th round price for a WR in a new system, with a new QB in an offense that has historically sucked.  Also, I just happen to like a lot of WRs that are going after him such as Edelman, Garcon and Funchess.

I like Edelman and am so so on Benjamin. 

I'm undecided on DJ Moore.  .I think Funchess is the guy in Carolina and Moore could struggle for targets...we'll see what the news out of camp and preseason is.
Moore's been getting very positive early reviews. A healthy Greg Olsen is also going to cut into Funchess' targets.

I think he's fine at 7.12 but not excited about him. 

 
10 WRs I've been targeting:

Mike Williams (11th round)

Kenny Golladay (13th)

Tyler Lockett (13th)

Paul Richardson (14th)

Davante Adams (mid-late 2nd)

AJ Green (mid-late 2nd)

Sammy Watkins (7th)

John Ross (final round)

Chester Rogers (final round)

Albert Wilson (final round)

 
Moore's been getting very positive early reviews. A healthy Greg Olsen is also going to cut into Funchess' targets.

I think he's fine at 7.12 but not excited about him. 
Agree on Olsen but I think the Benjamin departure at least cancels that out.

 
Agree on Olsen but I think the Benjamin departure at least cancels that out.
Benjamin was traded after Week 8 last year. All three of Funchess' games with over 70 receiving yards came after the trade. 

Should be interesting to see how it plays out. Personally, my general approach so far in best ball has been to target Cam but avoid most of the other guys. There are a lot of mouths to feed with McCaffrey, Olsen, Funchess, and Moore all talented and deserving of looks. With four guys, it potentially limits the upside of all of them. 

The prices are fine on Funchess and Moore though so I see the attraction. 

 
10 WRs I've been targeting:

Mike Williams (11th round)

Kenny Golladay (13th)

Tyler Lockett (13th)

Paul Richardson (14th)

Davante Adams (mid-late 2nd)

AJ Green (mid-late 2nd)

Sammy Watkins (7th)

John Ross (final round)

Chester Rogers (final round)

Albert Wilson (final round)
Not high on Ross/Wilson/Richardson/Lockett/Williams...most of these players strike me as low ceiling guys.

I really like Davante/Green/Watkins/Rogers.

 
It's hard to beat Robby Anderson for value. We're talking about a raw 2nd-year player with a lot of headroom finishing in the mid-to-upper teens last season at his position.

With an ADP in the 9th round, it's the kind of value that can help you win leagues. Even better, if he disappoints, you're not out a high pick.

I suspect Anderson's ADP will climb as the summer goes along since it looks like he's not going to be suspended, but he'd be good value even a round or two higher.

 
It's hard to beat Robby Anderson for value. We're talking about a raw 2nd-year player with a lot of headroom finishing in the mid-to-upper teens last season at his position.

With an ADP in the 9th round, it's the kind of value that can help you win leagues. Even better, if he disappoints, you're not out a high pick.

I suspect Anderson's ADP will climb as the summer goes along since it looks like he's not going to be suspended, but he'd be good value even a round or two higher.
No suspension coming?

 
Solid list - a few I might also suggest:

Robert Woods - Currently going WR40.  Lot of people think that the addition of Cooks is going to kill his value.  But they did subtract Watkins, and Goff is likely trending to be more productive than he was in 2017 (only 518 pass attempts for LAR).  Woods put up 56/781/5 in 12 games.

Jamison Crowder - Was overdrafted last year and he started out extraordinarily slow.  But his last 8 games saw him put up 38/517/3 and Alex Smith seems tailor-made for him.  At WR44, you could do worse.

Mike Williams (LAC) - Yes, his rookie year was a lost cause.  But with Hunter Henry out for the year, they need Williams to justify his 2017 draft standing fairly quick.  You're betting on upside, but Top 10 draft talent at WR49 is a low-risk, high reward proposition.

 
It's hard to beat Robby Anderson for value. We're talking about a raw 2nd-year player with a lot of headroom finishing in the mid-to-upper teens last season at his position.

With an ADP in the 9th round, it's the kind of value that can help you win leagues. Even better, if he disappoints, you're not out a high pick.

I suspect Anderson's ADP will climb as the summer goes along since it looks like he's not going to be suspended, but he'd be good value even a round or two higher.
I can beat it: Quincy Enunwa. 

 
Solid list - a few I might also suggest:

Robert Woods - Currently going WR40.  Lot of people think that the addition of Cooks is going to kill his value.  But they did subtract Watkins, and Goff is likely trending to be more productive than he was in 2017 (only 518 pass attempts for LAR).  Woods put up 56/781/5 in 12 games.

Jamison Crowder - Was overdrafted last year and he started out extraordinarily slow.  But his last 8 games saw him put up 38/517/3 and Alex Smith seems tailor-made for him.  At WR44, you could do worse.

Mike Williams (LAC) - Yes, his rookie year was a lost cause.  But with Hunter Henry out for the year, they need Williams to justify his 2017 draft standing fairly quick.  You're betting on upside, but Top 10 draft talent at WR49 is a low-risk, high reward proposition.
Woods was a seriously good fantasy player before some injuries slowed him down and I can't stand Mike WIlliams but at his price it's worth a flyer but I would take Tyrell before him. Based on FFCalc it doesn't look like Tyrell is even being drafted yet he's got proven production that Mike doesn't. 

 
5.   Martavis Bryant – ADP WR#53 12.01 Overall 

Martavis is the best WR on the Raiders period.   Clearly there is some off the field risk that goes with the on-field reward, but Martavis is one of the few WRs going after the 10th round that can deliver WR2 value.  Martavis is a good gamble in the 11th round.  

.  
His late ADP may be because people have been afraid to draft him since the news of his potential suspension broke.

 
Agree on Olsen but I think the Benjamin departure at least cancels that out.
You can check out my thoughts (there are several of them) on DJ Moore in his spotlight thread. I think I made a decent case for him being a good redraft target. 

 
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Woods was a seriously good fantasy player before some injuries slowed him down and I can't stand Mike WIlliams but at his price it's worth a flyer but I would take Tyrell before him. Based on FFCalc it doesn't look like Tyrell is even being drafted yet he's got proven production that Mike doesn't. 
Issue I see with Tyrell is even after his 1000 season in 2016, LAC used a Top 10 pick @ WR.  The production Tyrell might give you IMO is contingent on Mike failing.  Certainly possible, but I think we know Tyrell's ceiling.  Upside feels capped.  But underwhelming would be kind to define Mike's rookie year.

 
Issue I see with Tyrell is even after his 1000 season in 2016, LAC used a Top 10 pick @ WR.  The production Tyrell might give you IMO is contingent on Mike failing.  Certainly possible, but I think we know Tyrell's ceiling.  Upside feels capped.  But underwhelming would be kind to define Mike's rookie year.
Good point but after seeing Mike for a year they put a 2nd round tender on Tyrell. 

 
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Issue I see with Tyrell is even after his 1000 season in 2016, LAC used a Top 10 pick @ WR.  The production Tyrell might give you IMO is contingent on Mike failing.  Certainly possible, but I think we know Tyrell's ceiling.  Upside feels capped.  But underwhelming would be kind to define Mike's rookie year.
agree with this

 
Completely agree with Garçon. Snagged him cheap in a few places. He’s been a target monster his whole career. Goodwin emerged out of necessity and has a poor catch rate over his career due to primarily being a deep threat. I don’t see any reason why Garçon shouldn’t be the target leader in SF if his neck doesn’t shoot his career.

 
Good point but after seeing Mike for a year they put a 2nd round tender on Tyrell. 
I see this mentioned a lot, but really the choice was between a 2nd round tender or the original round tender. TW was a UDFA and the 2nd rounder cost $1m more than original round, so it was kind of a no brainier to give him that tender regardless of what MW did. Now if they locked Tyrell up long term, I'd consider it a meaningful move regarding how they value their Williams'.

 
I see this mentioned a lot, but really the choice was between a 2nd round tender or the original round tender. TW was a UDFA and the 2nd rounder cost $1m more than original round, so it was kind of a no brainier to give him that tender regardless of what MW did. Now if they locked Tyrell up long term, I'd consider it a meaningful move regarding how they value their Williams'.
Fair point a million more doesn’t sound bad- its a 50% pay increase though and they felt he was worth protecting. It’s something but maybe not as much as it sounds.

 
Completely agree with Garçon. Snagged him cheap in a few places. He’s been a target monster his whole career. Goodwin emerged out of necessity and has a poor catch rate over his career due to primarily being a deep threat. I don’t see any reason why Garçon shouldn’t be the target leader in SF if his neck doesn’t shoot his career.
yep, Goodwin is Fool's Gold IMHO.

 
Don't really agree with most of these, (especially in regards to Fitz, Robby, Funchess, Bryant and Pryor) but I appreciate you putting your thoughts and arguments out there. I may be taking a closer look at Stills now after your write-up.

 
Issue I see with Tyrell is even after his 1000 season in 2016, LAC used a Top 10 pick @ WR.  The production Tyrell might give you IMO is contingent on Mike failing.  Certainly possible, but I think we know Tyrell's ceiling.  Upside feels capped.  But underwhelming would be kind to define Mike's rookie year.
Keep in mind that he got a lot of targets in 2016 with Allen injured and that WR group being a MASH unit but last year with a healthy Allen he just flat disappeared.  Now with a healthy Allen and a hotshot high draft pick to compete with I don't see him being a consistent contributor unless there is an injury to free up more targets. 

 
Anyone have thoughts on Tyrell Williams as an underrated WR? 

He's only 26, has all the measurables (6'4, 4.48 40). Last year Allen was just a monster with the targets and never had his perennial fluke injury, so Williams kind of was forgotten. He also has a different Williams (Mike) to complete with, which people are saying is a sleeper this year. Mike Williams is not nearly the athlete/burner that Tyrell is. 

Lots of mouths to feed, but with Hunter Henry gone and no real TE to write home about filling in, that could leave Tyrell with a legitimate role in this offense.

Thoughts? 

 

 
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Anyone have thoughts on Tyrell Williams as an underrated WR? 

He's only 26, has all the measurables (6'4, 4.48 40). Last year Allen was just a monster with the targets and never had his perennial fluke injury, so Williams kind of was forgotten. He also has a different Williams (Mike) to complete with, which people are saying is a sleeper this year. Mike Williams is not nearly the athlete/burner that Tyrell is. 

Lots of mouths to feed, but with Hunter Henry gone and no real TE to write home about filling in, that could leave Tyrell with a legitimate role in this offense.

Thoughts? 

 
Scroll up.

 
Great thread, some great calls, and full disclosure as an Amari Cooper owner but there's no way Martavis Bryant is better than Cooper.  Kudos if he somehow outperforms him but I just don't see it happening.  

 
Pryor is a tough one to really get a read on. He's getting up there in age (28) to be considered prime to "live up to his potential." He had one good year in Cleveland and really fell off after that. Hurt yes, but it just seems he's always hurt (apparently he's hurt already). I love his measurables, but I'm not sure what I think about him in 2018. I have an offer from an owner giving me Pryor in a swap of backup lotto tickets, and I'm not sure I even want to do it... he just seems like one of those WRs everyone hopes can get back to that one season where they were relevant. I'd rather have the RB lotto ticket who is one injury or one case of fumblitis away from grabbing the starting spot. 

 
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Pryor is a tough one to really get a read on. He's getting up there in age (28) to be considered prime to "live up to his potential." He had one good year in Cleveland and really fell off after that. Hurt yes, but it just seems he's always hurt (apparently he's hurt already). I love his measurables, but I'm not sure what I think about him in 2018. I have an offer from an owner giving me Pryor in a swap of backup lotto tickets, and I'm not sure I even want to do it... he just seems like one of those WRs everyone hopes can get back to that one season where they were relevant. I'd rather have the RB lotto ticket who is one injury or one case of fumblitis away from grabbing the starting spot. 
He strikes me as the type of WR that McCown will love throwing to.  If he can shake the injury bug, I think he'll be a huge value.  Fingers crossed.

 
Great thread, some great calls, and full disclosure as an Amari Cooper owner but there's no way Martavis Bryant is better than Cooper.  Kudos if he somehow outperforms him but I just don't see it happening.  
almost every receiving metric favors Bryant.

DYAR, DVOA, Drop Rate, Separation Distance, YPC...and on and on and on.

Cooper = Overrated

 
almost every receiving metric favors Bryant.

DYAR, DVOA, Drop Rate, Separation Distance, YPC...and on and on and on.

Cooper = Overrated
You can throw out as many acronyms as you want, but rapport with one's QB goes a long way.  To each his own, I guess.

 
almost every receiving metric favors Bryant.

DYAR, DVOA, Drop Rate, Separation Distance, YPC...and on and on and on.

Cooper = Overrated
Christine Michael had some pretty awesome scores on acronyms. he didn't have it between the ears though

you give a lot of information of how Bryant was in PIT. he doesnt play in PIT. he plays in OAK. he mentally shut down when JuJu took his spot. I have a suspicion he even was childish enough to steal JuJus bike. the guy doesnt have it between the ears. 

Cooper may or may not be overrated. and IMO Oak paid a lot for Bryant so youd think they like him a lot. but no one knows how they are going to use him, or if Bryant will even grasp the offense and click with Carr. 

IMO I dont see it happening. if it did and he out performs Cooper, Bryant would be the steal of the season for fantasy owners. I think it's more likely Bryant gets suspended in some shape or form. 

I think he's a great bargain, and deserves to be on this list. you're certainly entitled to your thought about him being better than and out performing Cooper... but I suspect you are in the minority on that one, even with Cooper critics

 
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You can throw out as many acronyms as you want, but rapport with one's QB goes a long way.  To each his own, I guess.
True, but we are just talking who the better receiver is here, not who is going to score the most this year.  Raiders are a lot more heavily invested in Cooper than Bryant, so even if Bryant outperforms Cooper, Cooper will get more targets because of the investment and relationship with Carr...doesn't mean Martavis isn't better.

 
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