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Trip’s Top 3 Most Overvalued WRs – Precamp Edition (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

TripItUp

Footballguy
tA lot of great discussion in the previous threads...let's see how the Pool weighs in on these.   (ADP per FF calculator, PPR 12 team leagues)

1.  Odell Beckham Jr. ADP WR#3 1.11 Overall

ODB’s numbers have continued to decline.  Last year was too small of a sample size to draw too many conclusions but there are enough question marks to rank him behind more reliable WRs like Julio Jones, Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas.  ODB is a top 10 WR, but losing value in your first 2 rounds is not a recipe for fantasy success.  It’s also worth mentioning that ODB isn’t the only threat for the Giants nowadays with Barkley added to the mix.  Assuming that ODB sees the 150+ targets with a new coaching regime could be a mistake.  It's also worth mentioning that he's coming off a nasty ankle injury not to mention off the field stuff that isn’t what you’d call promising.  ODB is currently not happy with his contract and the situation could add yet another negative to an already -ev situation.   Hard pass on ODB as WR#3 this year, I'll take Julio who has none of these problems/issues/noise.

2.  Brandin Cooks – ADP WR#23 5.05 Overall

Cooks will be transitioning to a new team, a team with one of the best defenses in the league and a team that loves to run the ball.  It’s also worth mentioning that he’s replacing deep threat Sammy Watkins that was effectively used as a decoy for the entire season.  Goff’s established rapports with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp doesn’t help his target share either.  There is no guarantee for a target share large enough to justify this position ahead of the likes of Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree and a slew of others.  I have Cooks ranked as the #34 WR behind much more established and consistent fantasy point producing WRs.

3.  Jarvis Landry – ADP WR#25 5.10 Overall

Easily my least favorite WR based on ADP.  So the Browns will be starting the season with Tyrod Taylor.  Tyrod has never passed for 3100 yards.   Additionally, Jarvis is no longer the best WR on his team, that would be Josh Gordon.  Last, but not least, Landry has averaged 5.5 TDs a year since coming into the league, last year’s TD total of 9 was an aberration, not the norm.  Landry is a mediocre floor, low ceiling WR…you can do much better at WR#25 including the following: Hogan, Watkins, Crabtree, Fuller and Garcon.

Other WRs I haven't been drafting and won't be drafting:

Amari Cooper WR#19

Alshon Jeffery WR#22

Cooper Kupp,/Robert Woods WR#37 and WR#38

Calvin Ridley WR#45

 
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Agree with Cooks and most of your Worst of the Rest list, disagree about Beckham & Landry.

Beckham was WR3 last year in ppg, on pace for 100/1208/12. Of course "on pace" is a little silly when we're just looking at 4 games, but if we look at the previous season he had 101/1367/10 which is very similar. Keenan Allen & Michael Thomas have never had a season that was as good as that (or any of Beckham's first 3 seasons), and I would not use the word "reliable" to describe Allen. Julio vs. Beckham is a reasonable debate.

Landry is already being marked way down from what he did in MIami. He averaged 105/1093/5.7 over the past 3 years; WR25 suggests that people are expecting him to get about 80% of that. Seems about right. The obvious upside is: maybe he keeps doing what he did with multiple different Dolphins QBs and coaches.

 
ZWK said:
Beckham was WR3 last year in ppg, on pace for 100/1208/12. Of course "on pace" is a little silly when we're just looking at 4 games, but if we look at the previous season he had 101/1367/10 which is very similar. Keenan Allen & Michael Thomas have never had a season that was as good as that (or any of Beckham's first 3 seasons), and I would not use the word "reliable" to describe Allen. Julio vs. Beckham is a reasonable debate.
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This is ultimately my point, selecting ODB as WR#3 is living in the past, aka relying on historical numbers.  There is a new supporting cast and coaching regime among the other risks I mentioned.

 
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ZWK said:
Landry is already being marked way down from what he did in MIami. He averaged 105/1093/5.7 over the past 3 years; WR25 suggests that people are expecting him to get about 80% of that. Seems about right. The obvious upside is: maybe he keeps doing what he did with multiple different Dolphins QBs and coaches.
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What do you have projected for Landry?

 
ODB’s numbers have continued to decline...  :doh: :confused:

Guy has never had less than 130 targets and 10 TD’s in a full season. Good luck to you passing on him. 

 
Odell's yardage per game has dropped by 10 yards a game each year. Clearly that is is not what you want to see. However, could some of that drop off / ineffectiveness be due to the Giants abysmal running game? Theoretically, won't Barkley's presence give Odell a little more room to operate as team's will have to respect the run? I still wouldn't want OBJ, but maybe there is a little sliver of light for his cause this season.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Odell's yardage per game has dropped by 10 yards a game each year. Clearly that is is not what you want to see. However, could some of that drop off / ineffectiveness be due to the Giants abysmal running game? Theoretically, won't Barkley's presence give Odell a little more room to operate as team's will have to respect the run? I still wouldn't want OBJ, but maybe there is a little sliver of light for his cause this season.
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Perhaps, I'll take Julio and let somebody else find out.

 
TripItUp said:
And Julio has never had less than 1400 yards in the last four years.  :moneybag:
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Jones has had a total of 23 tds over the last 4 years. Odell has had  38--and that includes Odell missing most of last season.   They will both get solid yards--but over the last 4 years--Odell has been a much better td target than Julio.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Jones has had a total of 23 tds over the last 4 years. Odell has had  38--and that includes Odell missing most of last season.   They will both get solid yards--but over the last 4 years--Odell has been a much better td target than Julio.  
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5'11 and TD dependent, no thanks.

 
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TripItUp said:
And Julio has never had less than 1400 yards in the last four years.  :moneybag:
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While I appreciate these threads as it stimulates some good discussion, one of the issues I have is there is no framework for where the players are actually getting drafted. For example, in 0 ppr leagues, while Julio has put up 1400 yards the past 4 seasons, he actually has struggled to meet his ADP.

Julio
2017 ADP 2 - End of Season Rank 6
2016 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 6
2015 ADP 4 - End of Season Rank 2
2014 ADP 6 - End of Season Rank 8
2013 ADP 5 - End of Season Rank 64 (Injured)
2012 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 9
2011 ADP 30 - End of Season Rank 17

Odell
2017 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 82 (Injured)
2016 ADP 2 - End of Season Rank 4
2015 ADP 5 - End of Season Rank 5
2014 ADP 67 - End of Season Rank 5

Bottom line, OBJ ranked Top 5 in his 3 healthy seasons, Jones ranked Top 5 once in his 6 healthy seasons. OBJ might be a little overvalued, but that doesn't necessarily mean Jones is undervalued, especially when their ADP's are 3 and 4 respectively.

 
TripItUp said:
TD dependent, no thanks.
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Not quite.  Over the course of their careers Odell is averaging 6.7 recpts  for 94.1 yards per game. He has 38 td's in 47 games--which means he's averaging 0.8 td's per game. 

Julio Jones has averaged 6.2 recpts for 95 yards per game.  He has 43 tds in 95 games--an average of 0.45 tds per game.  

Over the course of their careers--their per game average for yards is virtually identical, receptions are similar--and odell has averaged significantly more td's per game.  The only reason why anybody should avoid Beckham in this particular decision is if they don't trust his health.  The numbers do not support the td dependence thing over the course of both of their careers.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
While I appreciate these threads as it stimulates some good discussion, one of the issues I have is there is no framework for where the players are actually getting drafted. For example, in 0 ppr leagues, while Julio has put up 1400 yards the past 4 seasons, he actually has struggled to meet his ADP.

Julio
2017 ADP 2 - End of Season Rank 6
2016 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 6
2015 ADP 4 - End of Season Rank 2
2014 ADP 6 - End of Season Rank 8
2013 ADP 5 - End of Season Rank 64 (Injured)
2012 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 9
2011 ADP 30 - End of Season Rank 17

Odell
2017 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 82 (Injured)
2016 ADP 2 - End of Season Rank 4
2015 ADP 5 - End of Season Rank 5
2014 ADP 67 - End of Season Rank 5

Bottom line, OBJ ranked Top 5 in his 3 healthy seasons, Jones ranked Top 5 once in his 6 healthy seasons. OBJ might be a little overvalued, but that doesn't necessarily mean Jones is undervalued, especially when their ADP's are 3 and 4 respectively.
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Agreed Jones is undervalued, trying to sell Beckham as a 2nd rounder is, I don’t have words for it. He shouldn’t even be lasting to the 1.11 where he is “overvalued”.

 
So that I’m not just being condescending for the sake of it: ODB scores TD’s in 7 of 16 games in 2016 scoring double digit (>10 pts) in PPR, 5 of the other 9 games he also posted double digit points. I’m fine with disagreeing with the masses but let’s not use silly logic to validate your wants vs actually backing it up with fact based analysis.

 
Bojang0301 said:
:lmao:  TD dependent. Where are you coming up with this junk. It’s a bad call, period. 
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I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s a “bad call,” as that’s yet to be determined.  But it’s definitely flawed logic when it seems to be that his claim is that Julio has outproduced Beckham.  

 
Damn, some real ballsy calls there Trip with some rational support for them.  I don’t know how it will shake out, and I’m certain you are going to really raise some hackles, but I sure do admire the cut of your jib.

 
TripItUp said:
5'11 and TD dependent, no thanks.
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Bronco Billy said:
Damn, some real ballsy calls there Trip with some rational support for them.  I don’t know how it will shake out, and I’m certain you are going to really raise some hackles, but I sure do admire the cut of your jib.
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I don't believe this is what most would consider rational support for the ballsy call on OBJ.  He is not TD dependent for his scoring as others have shown in this thread.  The TD's enhance his value but is not the reason for his value. 

He is a high volume WR with elite speed/quickness.  Saying you don't think he will live up to his draft slot because you think the injury takes away his elite skills is rational and debatable.  We won't know until he gets on the field.  But saying he is TD dependent is far from rational.

 
I agree with everyone on the list except Kupp and maybe Woods.

I see Kupp improving on last year. We forget he was a rookie and just learning the NFL game because he looked good early on. I’m not sure why people keep downgrading him when I could see him making big strides in the next couple years. His game is based so much in route running, and that’s only going to keep getting better.

 
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kutta said:
I agree with everyone on the list except Kupp and maybe Woods.

I see Krupp improving on last year. We forget he was a rookie and just learning the NFL game because he looked good early on. I’m not sure why people keep downgrading him when I could see him making big strides in the next couple years. His game is based so much in route running, and that’s only going to keep getting better.
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My concern will all of the Rams pass catchers is that they split targets rendering all of them with lower ceilings, particularly with a defense that could be the best in the league.  Consistent targets may be tough to come by.  That being said,  Kupp's advanced metrics were solid and this isn't a knock on his ability.  He certainly had an excellent rookie year as you pointed out.

 
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Gally said:
I don't believe this is what most would consider rational support for the ballsy call on OBJ.  He is not TD dependent for his scoring as others have shown in this thread.  The TD's enhance his value but is not the reason for his value. 

He is a high volume WR with elite speed/quickness.  Saying you don't think he will live up to his draft slot because you think the injury takes away his elite skills is rational and debatable.  We won't know until he gets on the field.  But saying he is TD dependent is far from rational.
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Doesn’t look like he’s hurting to me

 
Gally said:
I don't believe this is what most would consider rational support for the ballsy call on OBJ.  He is not TD dependent for his scoring as others have shown in this thread.  The TD's enhance his value but is not the reason for his value. 

He is a high volume WR with elite speed/quickness.  Saying you don't think he will live up to his draft slot because you think the injury takes away his elite skills is rational and debatable.  We won't know until he gets on the field.  But saying he is TD dependent is far from rational.
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I thought his initial write up was perceptive.  He brings up some solid logic even if you diametrically disagree with it.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Odell's yardage per game has dropped by 10 yards a game each year. Clearly that is is not what you want to see. However, could some of that drop off / ineffectiveness be due to the Giants abysmal running game? Theoretically, won't Barkley's presence give Odell a little more room to operate as team's will have to respect the run? I still wouldn't want OBJ, but maybe there is a little sliver of light for his cause this season.
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Also, could some of that drop off be attributed to piss poor coaching? Giants offense showed very little imagination under McAdoo.

 
TripItUp said:
there are enough question marks to rank him behind more reliable WRs like Julio Jones, Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas.  ODB is a top 10 WR, but losing value in your first 2 rounds is not a recipe for fantasy success.
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Maybe I'm doing FF wrong but I don't think ODB is overvalued even using your own criteria.  I think it's safe to assume you rank ODB 6th instead of 3rd based on the list of WRs you have here?  If so that looks more like a tier where you have OBJ ranked at the end of that tier while others might have him at the top of the tier or whatever - maybe it's semantics but that doesn't scream "most overvalued" to me, and picking ODB at the top of that tier isn't "losing value in your first 2 rounds".

Overall I really enjoy these threads because it has sparked a lot of conversations - keep it up!

 
Didn't realize Cooks ADP had fallen so far, I honestly think he will be value at WR23. Woods can't stay healthy missing time in 4 out of 5 seasons. LA was 24th in attempts last year but 10th in passing yardage, so despite the low number of attempts they were highly efficient in moving the ball through the air. Stud defense will probably keep the number of overall targets and attempts low as they kill the clock late in games, but there will be a lot more offensive possessions to make up for that. Despite being "just a decoy" and only coming in early in the preseason, Watkins still scored 8 TDs last year. Goff is in his 3rd year and hopefully takes another step forward. There's a lot to like here that could offset the lower number of targets compared to Cooks prior years.

Cooks will likely be frustrating to own putting up points in bunches but he sounds like an ideal WR2 or WR3 for ones squad, and if that ADP holds up you can get him as your WR3 in some drafts. In dynasty it may be a little frustrating for his owners though because he's not likely to see the volume to put up the stud WR1 numbers that many think he is capable of.

 
Steeler said:
Maybe I'm doing FF wrong but I don't think ODB is overvalued even using your own criteria.  I think it's safe to assume you rank ODB 6th instead of 3rd based on the list of WRs you have here?  If so that looks more like a tier where you have OBJ ranked at the end of that tier while others might have him at the top of the tier or whatever - maybe it's semantics but that doesn't scream "most overvalued" to me, and picking ODB at the top of that tier isn't "losing value in your first 2 rounds".

Overall I really enjoy these threads because it has sparked a lot of conversations - keep it up!
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Correct I have OBJ ranked 6th.

:hifive:

 
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Anarchy99 said:
While I appreciate these threads as it stimulates some good discussion, one of the issues I have is there is no framework for where the players are actually getting drafted. For example, in 0 ppr leagues, while Julio has put up 1400 yards the past 4 seasons, he actually has struggled to meet his ADP.

Julio
2017 ADP 2 - End of Season Rank 6
2016 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 6
2015 ADP 4 - End of Season Rank 2
2014 ADP 6 - End of Season Rank 8
2013 ADP 5 - End of Season Rank 64 (Injured)
2012 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 9
2011 ADP 30 - End of Season Rank 17

Odell
2017 ADP 3 - End of Season Rank 82 (Injured)
2016 ADP 2 - End of Season Rank 4
2015 ADP 5 - End of Season Rank 5
2014 ADP 67 - End of Season Rank 5

Bottom line, OBJ ranked Top 5 in his 3 healthy seasons, Jones ranked Top 5 once in his 6 healthy seasons. OBJ might be a little overvalued, but that doesn't necessarily mean Jones is undervalued, especially when their ADP's are 3 and 4 respectively.
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There is no question that historically, ODB has been better.  

My argument is that this year there are risk factors that push ODB down for me.

 
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Not gonna lie I had no intentions of drafting ODB, but since I am looking for a WR at the end of Rd1 or early Rd2 I started checking numbers on the elite guys. Hard to argue ODB is not one of the Top 5 guys. Aside from AB, my list goes Hopkins -> Jones -> ODB -> Allen (I have Thomas as a keeper so he would be in there somewhere - prob after ODB). Really hoping Jones can get some more scores with Sanu gone. 

Agree with Cooks. Have no interest in him this year. 

 
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Bojang0301 said:
:lmao:  TD dependent. Where are you coming up with this junk. It’s a bad call, period. 
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I'll give it to Trip.  He makes big calls.  Call it what you want: flinging poop against the wall to see what sticks or just making "gutsy calls".  I certainly don't agree with the OBJ call myself.  And following it up by saying he'd rather have Julio is pretty strange.

 
nirad3 said:
I'll give it to Trip.  He makes big calls.  Call it what you want: flinging poop against the wall to see what sticks or just making "gutsy calls".  I certainly don't agree with the OBJ call myself.  And following it up by saying he'd rather have Julio is pretty strange.
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not only would I rather have Julio, but I also have Thomas and Allen ahead of OBJ too.

These aren't intended to be "look at me" threads.  It's more about discussing where my rankings differentiate from the consensus and supporting my reasoning.  I enjoy the counterarguments as well.

 
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Grading Julio ahead of OBJ based on injury concerns seems like recency bias. When OBJ is fully healthy he's in a WR 1a/1b situation with AB IMO. Julio is just behind in my book. Screw foot can't catch as well as the other two.

 
LawFitz said:
Grading Julio ahead of OBJ based on injury concerns seems like recency bias. When OBJ is fully healthy he's in a WR 1a/1b situation with AB IMO. Julio is just behind in my book. .
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Perhaps it is recency bias, just too much noise around ODB going into camp to feel good about taking him ahead of a sure thing like Julio.

 
TripItUp said:
Perhaps it is recency bias, just too much noise around ODB going into camp to feel good about taking him ahead of a sure thing like Julio.
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Even though Julio is holding out and ODB is not? Who is making noise? When does your reasoning align with reality is my main question? I keep waiting for some fact based approach but there is none. You suggest situation as a factor and targets, yet, it is the Falcons who drafted a WR in round 1, the Saints who added Meredith, Tre’Quan Smith and a TE who actually had real target value last time he was with the team despite his age. Allen is the one I would give you credit for as Henry is now gone for the season but he’s torn up his knee twice now (as you have sighted injury concern for ODB). Just type that you don’t like Beckham because he is an attention whore, does blow and has goofy hair. It’s ok, everyone can see that is why.

 
Bojang0301 said:
Even though Julio is holding out and ODB is not? Who is making noise? When does your reasoning align with reality is my main question? I keep waiting for some fact based approach but there is none. You suggest situation as a factor and targets, yet, it is the Falcons who drafted a WR in round 1, the Saints who added Meredith, Tre’Quan Smith and a TE who actually had real target value last time he was with the team despite his age. Allen is the one I would give you credit for as Henry is now gone for the season but he’s torn up his knee twice now (as you have sighted injury concern for ODB). Just type that you don’t like Beckham because he is an attention whore, does blow and has goofy hair. It’s ok, everyone can see that is why.
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Yeah, not responding to this.  I’ve listed several reasons that I have Beckham ranked 6 and it has nothing to do with what you’ve implied.

 
TripItUp said:
Yeah, not responding to this.  I’ve listed several reasons that I have Beckham ranked 6 and it has nothing to do with what you’ve implied.
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No you haven’t and this is another obvious dodge. You have no FACTUAL basis. Just skewed personal bias. Just say it so people know not to weigh this into their own rankings/drafting.

 
Bojang0301 said:
No you haven’t and this is another obvious dodge. You have no FACTUAL basis. Just skewed personal bias. Just say it so people know not to weigh this into their own rankings/drafting.
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Troll away... let me know when you are able to change the tone of your posts to represent an adult conversation.

 
TripItUp said:
Troll away... let me know when you are able to change the tone of your posts to represent an adult conversation.
Click to expand...
So you have no actual fact based reasoning for having Odell as #6 WR and calling him “overvalued”? Got it. The only child in the room is the one posting false claims in this thread. 

 
Bojang0301 said:
So you have no actual fact based reasoning for having Odell as #6 WR and calling him “overvalued”? Got it. The only child in the room is the one posting false claims in this thread. 
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Welcome to the ignore function, I don’t waste my time with this nonsense.

 
And what is truly funny is that I own Odell in zero leagues. I own Thomas, Julio and Allen and I find your claim absurd. If you are correct it has absolutely nothing to do with any research, reasoning or even eyeball scouting and everything to do with flinging poo at the wall. 

 
TripItUp said:
Welcome to the ignore function, I don’t waste my time with this nonsense.
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Nonsense? Post just one factual claim and back it up.

So far,

Odell is still hurt, false. 

Odell is injury prone over the other WR’s, false.

Odell is a problem child over Julio, false.

Odell’s targets will tank more than the others, false.

Odell is TD dependent, false.

 
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Also I have my projections for Odell as:

160 targets 101 Rec 1424 yds 10 TD

 
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I get what you mean about ODB.  But when healthy, he has always produced yards/TD’s.  There are so many options though in that part of the draft that allow you to select a player you’re sold on.

Cooks always seems to be overvalued.  In previous years, I’ve thought he wound up going a round earlier than he should.  This year feels no different.  That said, your avoidance of all Ram WR’s is interesting, particularly Woods/Kupp who are on the WR3/4 border.  There would seem to be value somewhere here.

A couple of overvalued WR’s from my vantage point.

Will Fuller (WR24 - FFC) - his value seems to stem from his huge TD rate with Watson as QB.  But even in that 4 game stretch, he averaged less than 6 targets/game.  Dicey.

Allen Robinson (WR19 - FFC) - Marvin Jones is going WR23.  It’s a big leap to think Trubisky will be able to weaponize Robinson better than Stafford has already done with Jones.

 
I'll be in the minority and say I disagree on Cooks. WR 23 is about right. I think he gets a fair share of volume and will lead the team in receiving TDs. 

This offense runs through Gurley without a doubt, but I expect Goff to have taken some strides to support opening up the passing game more. 

you dont pay a guy 8.5 million to be used as a decoy. and this is a contract year for Cooks. 

I think the perception of him being over valued or overrated stems from living in the past. when he was in NO and then NE people thought he was the next addition to the top 10. WR2 is about right for Cooks IMO. Crabtree? no thanks... guy always disappoints and has flacco throwing. sammy Watkins? another no thanks. Marvin Jones maybe but you want to talk about a TD dependent wr... Jones is it. if hes not scoring a TD hes only getting you 50-70 yards. I'd put these two equal but I'm just not a fan of Detroit's passing game, so I'd take Cooks personally. 

I understand I'm in the minority on Cooks, but the guy is still extremely young at 24 and is in the last year of his contract. He has talent and hasn't done poorly these first 3 years. 

I'll be looking forward to a "Cooks /99" signs this year sometime

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I'll be in the minority and say I disagree on Cooks. WR 23 is about right. I think he gets a fair share of volume and will lead the team in receiving TDs. 

This offense runs through Gurley without a doubt, but I expect Goff to have taken some strides to support opening up the passing game more. 

you dont pay a guy 8.5 million to be used as a decoy. and this is a contract year for Cooks. 

I think the perception of him being over valued or overrated stems from living in the past. when he was in NO and then NE people thought he was the next addition to the top 10. WR2 is about right for Cooks IMO. Crabtree? no thanks... guy always disappoints and has flacco throwing. sammy Watkins? another no thanks. Marvin Jones maybe but you want to talk about a TD dependent wr... Jones is it. if hes not scoring a TD hes only getting you 50-70 yards. I'd put these two equal but I'm just not a fan of Detroit's passing game, so I'd take Cooks personally. 

I understand I'm in the minority on Cooks, but the guy is still extremely young at 24 and is in the last year of his contract. He has talent and hasn't done poorly these first 3 years. 

I'll be looking forward to a "Cooks /99" signs this year sometime
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Do you expect all three of Woods/Kupp/Cooks to provide value or just Cooks?  

 
Dr. Dan said:
I understand I'm in the minority on Cooks, but the guy is still extremely young at 24 and is in the last year of his contract
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As has been discussed numerous times in this forum, there is no factual basis for the myth that players play harder/better in contract years. So there is no basis for citing it as if it is a positive for his 2018 fantasy prospects.

 
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