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Justin Howe

Dalvin Cook Player Spotlight

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You guys probably know the deal by now -- after a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are one of the main features on the site during the preseason. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary fell off, but we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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Dalvin Cook is currently coming off the board outside of Round 1. In most drafts, he's available beyond the likes of Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, Saquon Barkley, and Leonard Fournette. Are you OK with that? More interested in him than any of those names?

The case could be made that Cook is firmly on their level. His rookie year was truncated, but he produced 0.39 PPR points per snap - in line with Hunt (0.44) and Fournette (0.44) and ahead of the others above. (Also more than LeVeon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott managed.) He's the unquestioned workhorse - he took 69.6% of snaps over the first 3 weeks - in an offense that looks poised to be successful. He catches passes, works on the goal line, and if his rookie year is any indicator, stays on the field in virtually every circumstance. What's not to like?

Early chatter on his ACL recovery is good. It's not the death knell it was once perceived to be, and Cook was already back in team drills in early June. He won't play much in the preseason, but there's nothing to suggest that he'll be limited in any way come September.

What say you?

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His situation is better than last year even--Jerick McKinnon is gone and Murray is not going to take over any game situations but is likely going to be used to give him a breather.  As long as he recovers well and stays healthy, he should have a lot of touches both in run and pass game.

288 carries; 1238 yards, 8 TDs; 48 receptions, 398 yards, 2 TDs

 

Edited by az_prof
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2 minutes ago, az_prof said:

His situation is better than last year even--Jerick McKinnon is gone and Murray is not going to take over any game situations but is likely going to be used to give him a breather.  As long as he recovers well and stays healthy, he should have a lot of touches both in run and pass game.

288 carries; 1238 yards, 8 TDs; 48 receptions, 398 yards, 2 TDs

 

that's a lot of carries coming off ACL surgery...

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13 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

that's a lot of carries coming off ACL surgery...

Which occurred early last season and he has fully recovered from already....

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Workhorse back with better between the tackles vision than Gordon. He’s fantastic at setting up blocks. He’s a better pass catcher than Fournette. Gurley, Bell, DJ, Zeke, Kamara, Hunt then Cook. In my rankings. And the last two I think are closer than people might expect. (Hunt you have to trust Andy won’t “forget” about his RB and Kamara needs to maintain unworldly efficacy). 

The biggest worry to me is the loss of Shurmur to the Giants. Someone more on point with coaches and the Vikings can probably speak more to this than me. I am not too worried about the ACL. I think it’s about a 9 month recovery for most and he got his operation on October 9th last year. 

He’s going at the first round turn (12ish) and makes that back end turn awesome. Especially, when you consider the available options that you can pair with him. It’s going to be a great year for the people on Dalvin Cook bus. Draft him with your party hat on!

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51 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

that's a lot of carries off ACL surgery...

I wonder if there is any statistical analysis of RBs who have had ACL surgery with 11 months to recover and compare to their statistical average. My non-scientific observation is that guys are able to come back and be fully capable if they had a long enough recovery time.

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When he got hurt, I was devastated.  Loved watching the guy run and it’s always nice when a guy you quasi-reach for - kills it.

A lot to like here with the exception of his cost.  Late first sucks the value out of him...you’re paying a bit of a premium on what amounts to 3.5 games worth of action (he wound up being mid 3rd in 2017).  Instead of measuring him against RB2’s, he’s in the RB1 conversation now - squarely.  And while ACL recoveries have become more routine, it’s still a significant injury to a guy who has less than a quarter of an NFL season to his name.

I don’t expect a larger workload for him as he was used heavily prior to the injury and he should return like-for-like value based on his ADP.  

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I think he's rightfully going after Hunt, Barkley, Fournette and Gordon. None of them are coming off ACL tears, and none of them are on teams with a backup RB anywhere near as proven as Latavius Murray. I think the Vikings will utilize Murray quite a bit more than they did prior to Cook's injury last year, both because of Cook's injury, and because he's useful, especially at the goal line. 

I love Cook long term, but this is a year I'm highly unlikely to own him. He's a high-end RB2 to me. More in line with a guy like Devonta Freeman, who I'd probably take over him as well.

I'd say 220-1,100-6 rushing and 50-400-2 receiving. 

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Have such a man crush on this kid. As was said above I was devastated when he got hurt last year. I really want to draft him again but I’m holding pick 8 and plan on taking an elite WR in the 1st and praying he’ll be there after the turn. I know the value of another RB will be similar to Cook at that spot (Gordon or Freeman) but I would much rather have Cook. 

I see them using him as the workhorse but monitoring his carries just enough to be on the safe side. Which I’m ok with. McKinnon is gone and Murray isn’t going to steal any more carries than are enough to give Cook a breather. I definitely expect less carries than the likes of Gurley and Zeke but I think the Vikings can move the ball enough that double digit TDs is almost a guarantee (rushing and receiving). 

Edited by Elevencents

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Big fan. After the top 4 RBs go, he is in the conversation for sure with about 5 or 6 other backs. Good year to draft mid-late and have a shot at a elite performer when its all said and done.

His last two years at FSU he averaged 23 touches a game. He was averaging 23.66 with the Vikes before the injury. The Vikes have a nice offense and the tremendous Zimmer defense works to his advantage. Murrays consistent sub 4.0 per carry output isn't a threat, except to vulture some of the TDs.

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I have been a fan of Dalvin Cook for a couple of seasons before he entered the NFL. I considered him the best RB of the excellent 2017 draft class and despite his injury preventing him from proving it, I still do. You can see extensive discussion of him in his thread here

Cook has excellent vision, footwork and change of direction ability. He is also an excellent receiving option as well.

Although the Vikings were coming off a woefully bad rushing attack in 2016, the additions they made in free agency of Riley Reif and Mike Remmers, as well as 3rd round draft pick Pat Elflein turned this offensive line around more quickly than expected.

Dalvin Cook and the offensive line were still finding their way early on in the season. Cook stated during training camp that he was adjusting to the speed of the NFL. The Vikings employed a primarily outside zone running scheme because of their desire to maximize Dalvin Cooks abilities. He is a special player according to Mike Zimmer and the Vikings offense changed a great deal because of Dalvin Cook.

Sam Bradford was injured after the first game against the Saints, making things even more challenging for Cook to find his way in the early going. The week two match up with the Steelers was a difficult opponent for the Vikings to face under these circumstances and this was one of the Vikings 3 losses of the 2017 season.

Despite all that Dalvin Cook thrived.

137 combined yards week one against the Saints.

66 yards week two against the Steelers in Case Keenums first game.

169 combined yards and a TD against the Buccaneers in week 3.

74 combined yards in the first half of the fourth game before Cook suffered an ACL injury cutting this game and the rest of his season short.

In my opinion Cook was only scratching the surface of the player he will be this season. He had multiple concentration drops of passes that I think as he gets more comfortable will be receptions. He caught 11 of 16 targets in those 3.5 games 69% catch rate is slightly below average for a RB and I think Cook is an above average receiver. There were also a couple times where Cook slipped on the turf while cutting, that if he didn't make those mistakes likely would have led to much longer plays than they were.

Cook was RB 9 over the first 4 weeks of the season, a RB one. He averaged 4.8 ypc and 88.5 rushing yards per game. As a receiver he was targeted 4 times per game and his 11 receptions for 90 yards works out to 8.2 ypr and 22.5 receiving yards per game. He averaged 111 yards per game over these first 4 games.

If he were able to maintain this over the course of a full season he would produce 1776 combined yards and 8 TD over 16 games.

In PPR formats this would be 269 fantasy points which would have been RB seven in 2017.

As I mentioned, I don't think Cook reached his full potential in the 3.5 games he played. So while his productivity was very good, I think he could actually be better in 2018. Dalvin Cook with enough opportunity may have a 2000 combined yard season in the near future.

I agree with DW that Cooks ADP of 16th overall it requires a very high investment to land Cook. I think he will prove to be worth the price, you don't get value picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

While Case Keenum played very well for the Vikings last season, there was no small amount of luck involved with this. The Vikings have added Kirk Cousins as their QB for 2018 which removes some of the flukyness and luck from the offense. Defenses will have to respect Cousins and the Vikings passing game which should be favorable for Cook to thrive as their primary RB.

The Vikings were very balanced on offense last season. 527 pass attempts 501 rushing attempts with 1055 total offensive plays which was 7th overall in 2017.

I am expecting a similar formula for 2018 however with more efficiency. The Vikings defense being a strength that should allow the Vikings to once again be a top 10 offense in terms of total plays run.

I am expecting Cook to play about 70% of the offensive snaps and to be utilized frequently as a runner and a receiver.

70% of 500 rushing attempts is 350. Which is 22 rushing attempts per game. That is likely higher than I would expect Cook to get over 16 games.

He averaged 18.5 rushing attempts per game (although he did miss about half of the 4th game finishing with only 13 rushing attempts that day) which seems like a reasonable expectation for him, although I do think he is capable of more than that.

18.5 x 16 = 296 rushing attempts. 4 targets per game = 64 targets. I feel comfortable with this as a median range for Cooks opportunity over 16 games with the ceiling/floor being 15%

So a projection range of 251-296-340 rushing attempts (4.5 ypc) 1129-1332-1530 rushing yards  6-8-10 TD 54-64-74 targets (73% catch rate) 39-47-54 receptions (8 ypr) 312-376-432 yards.1-2 TD.

Or 1441 combined yards 7 TD floor (186 points standard 225 points PPR)  or 1708 combined yards 9 TD  median  (225 points standard 272 points PPR) 1962 combined yards 12 TD ceiling 268 points standard 322 points PPR) 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

 

I am expecting Cook to play about 70% of the offensive snaps and to be utilized frequently as a runner and a receiver.

70% of 500 rushing attempts is 350. Which is 22 rushing attempts per game. That is likely higher than I would expect Cook to get over 16 games.

He averaged 18.5 rushing attempts per game (although he did miss about half of the 4th game finishing with only 13 rushing attempts that day) which seems like a reasonable expectation for him, although I do think he is capable of more than that.

18.5 x 16 = 296 rushing attempts. 4 targets per game = 64 targets. I feel comfortable with this as a median range for Cooks opportunity over 16 games with the ceiling/floor being 15%

So a projection range of 251-296-340 rushing attempts (4.5 ypc) 1129-1332-1530 rushing yards  6-8-10 TD 54-64-74 targets (73% catch rate) 39-47-54 receptions (8 ypr) 312-376-432 yards.1-2 TD.

Or 1441 combined yards 7 TD floor (186 points standard 225 points PPR)  or 1708 combined yards 9 TD  median  (225 points standard 272 points PPR) 1962 combined yards 12 TD ceiling 268 points standard 322 points PPR) 

 

 

No concern with a new offensive coordinator?

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27 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

No concern with a new offensive coordinator?

No. They are running pretty much the same west coast offense as they ran last year under Shurmur, and the outside zone was a change that led to the Vikings releasing starting left guard Boone and drafting a lot of fast linemen recently. A change in harmony. New offensive coordinator DeFlippo who will implement some of the things that were successful for the Eagles to what the Vikings were already doing last season.

For the most part it isn't a lot of change, but some of the changes should be creative ones that help the Vikings offense overall, as should Kirk Cousins.

Edited by Biabreakable
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Injury/availability information regarding Dalvin Cook.

May 21st Dalvin Cook will be limited participant in OTAs

June 5th Dalvin Cook joins Vikings in team drills as recovery continues

Quote

 

Zimmer said earlier this offseason that he expects Cook will be full-go by training camp, which begins the last week of July.

At that point, Cook will get his chance to cut loose in the Vikings' offense. This spring, he's gotten a chance to observe what kind of scheme new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo is going to install.

"It's an offense that I've always wanted to be in," Cook said. "He's a great coach overall. He brings energy to the table. He and Kirk [Cousins], they bring energy to practice, period. When you have a coach like that bringing energy to the team meeting room, you want to come out here and do nothing but compete for him. Coach Flip brings that energy every day, and his offense, he wants to get the best guys the ball in their hand every time."

 

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My main concern is how much is Cook limited because of his injury. You'll hear how athletes are going back earlier from ACL surgery these days so 10 months after surgery is actually "late." this is a false narrative. no advances in medicine, outside of steroids, antler spray, or whatever can make you heal faster. 12 to 18 months is the gold standard and it remains today in literature as it was 10 years ago. that aside, as I said above, I'm more worried about how much strength, speed, etc he lost having to recover from surgery. I have no doubt he will have a great career, I'm just not so sure it'll be a great 2018. or a great first 1/4 to half of 2018.

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11 hours ago, az_prof said:

I wonder if there is any statistical analysis of RBs who have had ACL surgery with 11 months to recover and compare to their statistical average. My non-scientific observation is that guys are able to come back and be fully capable if they had a long enough recovery time.

fantasy labs did one in 2015

"Since 1999, running backs coming off ACL surgery have produced right around two-thirds of the fantasy points on a per-game basis as compared to their pre-ACL selves. That’s a serious drop."

they discuss some who defied the odds (AP. Charles who declined but had a pro bowl year anyways) there will always outliers. Maybe Cook will be one. I wouldn't bet on it personally

Edited by Dr. Dan
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39 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

fantasy labs did one in 2015

"Since 1999, running backs coming off ACL surgery have produced right around two-thirds of the fantasy points on a per-game basis as compared to their pre-ACL selves. That’s a serious drop."

they discuss some who defied the odds (AP. Charles who declined but had a pro bowl year anyways) there will always outliers. Maybe Cook will be one. I wouldn't bet on it personally

Exactly, buyer beware

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58 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

fantasy labs did one in 2015

"Since 1999, running backs coming off ACL surgery have produced right around two-thirds of the fantasy points on a per-game basis as compared to their pre-ACL selves. That’s a serious drop.

 

How many saw a reduction because when they got hurt someone else had a chance to shine and took on a larger role? When did these injuries occur? A big difference between having an ACL in like week 4 or week 14.How much has ACL recovery improved since 2015, since 1999? How many of these ACL injuries were multi-ligament injuries which are far more difficult to recover from?

I can honestly say I personally have zero concerns about his knee, absolutely zero. 

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

My main concern is how much is Cook limited because of his injury. You'll hear how athletes are going back earlier from ACL surgery these days so 10 months after surgery is actually "late." this is a false narrative. no advances in medicine, outside of steroids, antler spray, or whatever can make you heal faster. 12 to 18 months is the gold standard and it remains today in literature as it was 10 years ago. that aside, as I said above, I'm more worried about how much strength, speed, etc he lost having to recover from surgery. I have no doubt he will have a great career, I'm just not so sure it'll be a great 2018. or a great first 1/4 to half of 2018.

Growth hormone and peptide analogues are being used for exactly that. And have been for years. 

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I think Cook is easily top 4 this year with the potential of about 1800 total yards and 10 TD's. 

The higher end of bia's excellent post.

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Anytime a player is coming off an injury I am cautious.  A "quick" running back with a knee issue is scary.  

However, Cook has always been the best player on the field for most of his career.  I don't expect "workhorse" numbers, but I could see him having similar numbers as McKinnon did last year (as he is cast in a similar role).  KcKinnon ran for 570 yrds (2 td), caught 51 for 421 (2 tds).  I can see Cook marginally improving on those stats.  

I am thinking Rushing: 650 yrds (3 td); Receiving 53 for 520 (2 td).  I expect L-Train to continue to work the short yardage role. 

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As always people are sleeping on Latavius. He played on a bum wheel for the first half of the season then  averaged 4.3 YPC and put McKinnon back into a receiving back CoP guy.

Cook is the guy, no question about that but the Vikings will give Murray plenty of opportunities to give Cook rest. 

I would put Cook's ceiling for carries at about 240. I expect his pace early on will be even less than that but it should increase as the season goes on.

Murray also has above average hands, but the Vikings did not take advantage of that so there is hope that Latavius won't cap Murray too much in the passing game. Still I have trouble projecting more than 60 receptions.

So if everything falls in place perfectly then Cook should justify a late first/early second price tag. Personally I would be more comfortable with a late/mid second pick in a 12 team, PPR redraft. 

Edited by Chaka
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2 hours ago, Chaka said:

As always people are sleeping on Latavius. He played on a bum wheel for the first half of the season then  averaged 4.3 YPC and put McKinnon back into a receiving back CoP guy.

Cook is the guy, no question about that but the Vikings will give Murray plenty of opportunities to give Cook rest. 

I would put Cook's ceiling for carries at about 240. I expect his pace early on will be even less than that but it should increase as the season goes on.

Murray also has above average hands, but the Vikings did not take advantage of that so there is hope that Latavius won't cap Murray too much in the passing game. Still I have trouble projecting more than 60 receptions.

So if everything falls in place perfectly then Cook should justify a late first/early second price tag. Personally I would be more comfortable with a late/mid second pick in a 12 team, PPR redraft. 

 

I agree with this, people are pricing Cook closer to his ceiling than to his floor...no thanks.

Edited by TripItUp
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13 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

My main concern is how much is Cook limited because of his injury. You'll hear how athletes are going back earlier from ACL surgery these days so 10 months after surgery is actually "late." this is a false narrative. no advances in medicine, outside of steroids, antler spray, or whatever can make you heal faster. 12 to 18 months is the gold standard and it remains today in literature as it was 10 years ago. that aside, as I said above, I'm more worried about how much strength, speed, etc he lost having to recover from surgery. I have no doubt he will have a great career, I'm just not so sure it'll be a great 2018. or a great first 1/4 to half of 2018.

12 to 18 months? Seems a lot of places say 6-9  with up to 12 months. Link Link2 Link3 Link4 Link 9-12 months Link 6 

I think this is some kind of actual thesis paper but I’m not a doctor. So I’m not sure but it smashes the timeline that you’re talking about.  CONCLUSION The basic approach in ACL rehabilitation is to ensure a return to sports activities at the 6th mo postoperatively.

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29 minutes ago, Borden said:

12 to 18 months? Seems a lot of places say 6-9  with up to 12 months. Link Link2 Link3 Link4 Link 9-12 months Link 6 

I think this is some kind of actual thesis paper but I’m not a doctor. So I’m not sure but it smashes the timeline that you’re talking about.  CONCLUSION The basic approach in ACL rehabilitation is to ensure a return to sports activities at the 6th mo postoperatively.

Assuming no setbacks, and proper treatment performed, I expect no limitations when Cook returns. However, this is a general statement from what science and experience would tell us but when dealing with the human body there can certainly be exceptions. I am not taking his injury into account whatsoever, which may be a ballsy approach. 

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4 hours ago, Chaka said:

As always people are sleeping on Latavius. He played on a bum wheel for the first half of the season then  averaged 4.3 YPC and put McKinnon back into a receiving back CoP guy.

Cook is the guy, no question about that but the Vikings will give Murray plenty of opportunities to give Cook rest. 

I would put Cook's ceiling for carries at about 240. I expect his pace early on will be even less than that but it should increase as the season goes on.

Murray also has above average hands, but the Vikings did not take advantage of that so there is hope that Latavius won't cap Murray too much in the passing game. Still I have trouble projecting more than 60 receptions.

So if everything falls in place perfectly then Cook should justify a late first/early second price tag. Personally I would be more comfortable with a late/mid second pick in a 12 team, PPR redraft. 

If the Vikings run the ball about 500 times in 2018 as they did in 2017 and Cook has 296 of those rushing attempts that leaves another 200 or so rushing attempts for other players such as Murray.

Kirk Cousins does not run the ball very much. The last 3 seasons where Cousins has played all 16 games he had 26, 34 and 49 rushing attempts, the high being last season when receivers were not getting open as much and the injuries to the offensive line had him running for his life more frequently. The average is 36 rushing attempts.

So this would leave 164 rushing attempts for Murray and there was still some change left over for some WR runs in there as well.

If Cook were to only have 240 rushing attempts with Cousins 36 this would mean there was 224 rushing attempts left for Murray. Almost a 50/50 split.

I don't see that happening at all. 

I am not sleeping in regards to Latavius Murrays ability compared to Dalvin Cook and neither are the Vikings coaches. Cook is MUCH better than Murray. No way I see Cooks rushing attempts being that low unless he misses several games.

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23 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

If the Vikings run the ball about 500 times in 2018 as they did in 2017 

I'll take the under.  A lot went right for the Vikes last year.

In 2016 the Vikes had 380 rushing attempts.  500 is closer to the ceiling and not the correct projected number IMHO.

Edited by TripItUp
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1 hour ago, Borden said:

12 to 18 months? Seems a lot of places say 6-9  with up to 12 months. Link Link2 Link3 Link4 Link 9-12 months Link 6 

I think this is some kind of actual thesis paper but I’m not a doctor. So I’m not sure but it smashes the timeline that you’re talking about.  CONCLUSION The basic approach in ACL rehabilitation is to ensure a return to sports activities at the 6th mo postoperatively.

About 18 months ago I was at a convention where the surgeon of the Seahawks and Marlibs was talking about ACL reconstruction and return to sport. he put up MRIs at month intervals showing integration of the tendon graft into the bone. it wasnt fully integrated until about 14 months post surgery. He himself made statements at how it's crazy seeing these guys go back so early but they are under pressure to do so to not lose their starting role and because they are paid a lot of money. 

we can talk about how long it takes for the tendon to change histologically to mimic a ligament of you like as well. thays even longer. tendons dont stretch at all, ligaments do. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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19 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

If the Vikings run the ball about 500 times in 2018 as they did in 2017 and Cook has 296 of those rushing attempts that leaves another 200 or so rushing attempts for other players such as Murray.

Kirk Cousins does not run the ball very much. The last 3 seasons where Cousins has played all 16 games he had 26, 34 and 49 rushing attempts, the high being last season when receivers were not getting open as much and the injuries to the offensive line had him running for his life more frequently. The average is 36 rushing attempts.

So this would leave 164 rushing attempts for Murray and there was still some change left over for some WR runs in there as well.

If Cook were to only have 240 rushing attempts with Cousins 36 this would mean there was 224 rushing attempts left for Murray. Almost a 50/50 split.

I don't see that happening at all. 

I am not sleeping in regards to Latavius Murrays ability compared to Dalvin Cook and neither are the Vikings coaches. Cook is MUCH better than Murray. No way I see Cooks rushing attempts being that low unless he misses several games.

I think it is fair to say the Vikings called 455 rushing plays last year.  I doubt more than a handful of the 45 QB rushing attempts were scripted, and Cousins runs with almost the exact same frequency as the Vikings QBs did last season. No need to suggest a major decline.

I agree with @Dr. Dan that ACLs only heal at a certain pace, which is why I said that I think Cook's attempts will increase as the season wears on leaving him at around 240 rushing attempts.  His pace will be higher, IMO, at the end of the season.  296 carries plus the 60 or so receptions we both see him having will put him in the top five for offensive touches in 2018.  I don't see that coming off an ACL.  Next year? Sure. But in 2018 I am bearish on the prospect.

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Just now, Chaka said:

 296 carries plus the 60 or so receptions we both see him having will put him in the top five for offensive touches in 2018.  I don't see that coming off an ACL.  Next year? Sure. But in 2018 I am bearish on the prospect.

:goodposting:

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7 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I'll take the under.

A lot went right for the Vikes last year.

How much under?

Do you think the Vikings philosophy about running the ball is going to change downward now that they are getting their best RB back?

I really don't.

Do you think the Vikings defense is not going to be as good as it has been under ZImmers watch? The defense has made incremental improvements under Zimmer every year he has been the coach of the Vikings culminating in least points allowed and least yards allowed last season. When you are the best in the league I suppose there is no where higher to go from there, but they did add Sheldon Richardson at under tackle which should be an upgrade over Tom Johnson who was 33 years old last season.

Here is the last 3 seasons of the Vikings offense.

2017 1055 total plays 527 pass attempts 501 rushing attempts
2016 1006 total plays 588 pass attempts 380 rushing attempts
2015  973 total plays 454 pass attempts 474 rushing attempts

Average 1011 total plays 523 pass attempts 451 rushing attempts

However Peterson was injured in 2016 and barely played. McKinnon was injured early on that season as well leaving only Matt Asiata and a offensive line which was historically bad at run blocking.

In 2015 Peterson was healthy and had over 300 rushing attempts that year. They actually ran the ball more than they passed.

If you look at just the rushing attempt totals of 2015 and 2017 it averages out to 487 rushing attempts, and that is with the Vikings only having 973 offensive plays in 2015 with Bridgewater and Peterson. As last season shows the Vikings are capable of more total plays than that when the defense is playing as well as they have been and no other major disruptions to the offense.

500 rushing attempts is a lot in todays NFL. Only the Vikings and Jaguars ran the ball 500 or more times last season. However when two out of three of the last 3 seasons gets you 487 rushing attempts, that is pretty darn close and I think more than a coincidence. The Vikings want to run the ball.

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1 minute ago, Biabreakable said:

.

500 rushing attempts is a lot in todays NFL. Only the Vikings and Jaguars ran the ball 500 or more times last season. However when two out of three of the last 3 seasons gets you 487 rushing attempts, that is pretty darn close and I think more than a coincidence. The Vikings want to run the ball.

I think a safe over/under is around 460 IMHO, which would still put the Vikes near the top of the league.

a lot of moving parts with the ACL, new OC and new QB.

Edited by TripItUp

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Mack Brown is 3rd on the depth chart behind Latavius. Sure seems like a bellcow situation, even *with* Murray getting a big load. If we call it 450 rushes, and only 60% for Cook, that's 270 rushes. Seems pretty good to me. Lock for 40 plus catches. I'd guess closer to 60. Neighborhood of 400 yards plus. So 1200 rushing, 400 receiving, and if 10 total TDs, that nets 260 PPR points. Obviously it requires staying healthy.  Seems worthy of a late 1st/early 2nd to me. 

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12 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I think it is fair to say the Vikings called 455 rushing plays last year.  I doubt more than a handful of the 45 QB rushing attempts were scripted, and Cousins runs with almost the exact same frequency as the Vikings QBs did last season. No need to suggest a major decline.

The Vikings had 456 non QB runs last season out of 501. The 45 QB runs were 9 more than Cousins 3 year average of rushing attempts. I never did suggest a major decline, I am trying to work with accurate precise numbers here. Diggs did have 8 rushing attempts and Theilen had one run as well so that leaves 447 runs by RB players.

12 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I agree with @Dr. Dan that ACLs only heal at a certain pace, which is why I said that I think Cook's attempts will increase as the season wears on leaving him at around 240 rushing attempts.  His pace will be higher, IMO, at the end of the season.  296 carries plus the 60 or so receptions we both see him having will put him in the top five for offensive touches in 2018.  I don't see that coming off an ACL.  Next year? Sure. But in 2018 I am bearish on the prospect.

Well that is where I think a lot of people will have different views, in regards to how long recovery time from such an injury is, and what does actually concern me is using a player too much before the recovery period has been completed. I have been down this road quite a few times by now. I used to share your view and Dr. Dan provides some information that suggests 14 months being the safe route to take.

The Vikings coaches and front office as well as their medical staff are committed to doing what is best for their players. 

Adrian Peterson who had a MCL and a ACL injury in December 2011 was able to recover in time to start the season in 2012. Dalvin Cook was injured on the 1st of October so a full 2 months longer than Petersons injury, and Cooks injury was not multiple like Petersons was.

Rick Spielman made comments comparing Cooks recovery to Peterson early on and Cook has been ahead of or on schedule with that so far. He did individual drills in otas then team drills towards the end of otas. He is expected to be able to fully participate in training camp.

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ok so he's coming off an ACL injury 9 mos ago + Cousins is infinitely better than Case Keenum will EVER be = at least a static situation i.e.,  same stats he was showing last year, if not BETTER stats in 2018..now opposing defenses HAVE to respect Cousins, where they probably put more 8 in the box against Minnesota last year with the fluid QB situation.

I think the addition of Cousins makes a bigger impact on the Vikes offense, than the fact that Cook is coming off an ACL injury.  and word out of Minnesota is that Cook has looked very good in limited practices so far. we'll see how that goes but it's a promising start..I'd be shocked if Vikings offense , with or without Cook, is WORSE in 2018 than they were last season. I think they'll be much,much better. 

Cousins was a top QB in each of the past few seasons, with no talent bums at WR and a suspect O-line, no running game whatsoever, and Jay friggin Gruden.

this offense should score WAY more pts in 2018, hold the ball for longer time of posession, more plays, way more yards than last year. 

they should be ridiculously good.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

About 18 months ago I was at a convention where the surgeon of the Seahawks and Marlibs was talking about ACL reconstruction and return to sport. he put up MRIs at month intervals showing integration of the tendon graft into the bone. it wasnt fully integrated until about 14 months post surgery. He himself made statements at how it's crazy seeing these guys go back so early but they are under pressure to do so to not lose their starting role and because they are paid a lot of money. 

we can talk about how long it takes for the tendon to change histologically to mimic a ligament of you like as well. thays even longer. tendons dont stretch at all, ligaments do. 

His website says 6-12 months. Link to his profile on his website. If you follow the tabs at the top you will get to the knee rehabilitation page (link) that says 6-12 months with a final visit at 9 to 12 months. Another link to his site talking about ACL reconstruction with 9 to 12 months as the recovery time.

Edited by Borden

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It will be 11 months since the injury at the start of the regular season.

Vikings RB Dalvin Cook undergoes successful ACL surgery

October 10th.

Quote

The procedure was done by noted orthopedic surgeon James Andrews in Gulf Breeze, Fla.

A source had said the surgery went well and there is a “100 percent” chance he will be recovered by the start of next season. Vikings athletic trainer Eric Sugarman concurred.

“No real further damage in his knee, thankfully,” Sugarman said Tuesday. “Pretty straight ACL. And I’d hope to expect him at training camp next year.”

Cook wrote on Twitter, “Thanks for all the prayers and thoughts surgery went great!!! Road to recovery!!!!”

Cook, a second-round draft pick out of Florida State, rushed for 354 yards in the first four games. He suffered the season-ending injury in the third quarter of a 14-7 loss to Detroit.

 

Edited by Biabreakable

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

The Vikings had 456 non QB runs last season out of 501. The 45 QB runs were 9 more than Cousins 3 year average of rushing attempts. I never did suggest a major decline, I am trying to work with accurate precise numbers here. Diggs did have 8 rushing attempts and Theilen had one run as well so that leaves 447 runs by RB players.

If you are going to do the three years average thing with Cousins, why not do it with the Vikings as a whole? Last year was definitely the high water mark for rushing attempts.

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16 minutes ago, Chaka said:

If you are going to do the three years average thing with Cousins, why not do it with the Vikings as a whole? Last year was definitely the high water mark for rushing attempts.

Well 2016 the offensive line was so bad that no RB could run effectively which forced them to abandon it. Their running game was as bad as any team since 1961 or something like that.

Seems like an anomalous part of the sample when compared to the other two seasons. People were somewhat correctly complaining about Sam Bradford throwing a lot of short passes, but the Vikings could not run the ball. Peterson had sucked trying to run the ball before he was injured. McKinnon had some sort of injury limiting him early on that year, and the Vikings also had Matt Asiata. Therefore the 380 rushing attempts is not representative of the teams overall philosophy and their desire to be balanced in run to pass ratio or to even run the ball more than they pass if they can do that effectively or not.

You also have a change in offensive system from Norv Turner Coryell roots to Pat Shurmur West Coast roots. Its different terminology and a different offensive system. For that reason and it being more recent, I think the 2017 season is the best model to consider for 2018 out of the 3 seasons, this was more plays overall, in part because of improved defense and changes to the offensive line, as well as the RBs.

The changes in offensive line personnel that allowed the Vikings to run the ball effectively enough to keep doing it.

The Vikings did bring in Latavius Murray to be their RB after Peterson was let go (due to money mostly, but also some noticable decline in ability from Peterson as well). They didn't know they would be able to draft Dalvin Cook. They didn't even have a 1st round pick to be planning on that possibility.

I can see what you are saying about the touches and snaps perhaps being lower for Cook at the start of the season. That is if the Vikings think that would be best for the team and Cook this season. Even though Peterson started the season, I do recall him seeming a bit stiff compared to how he normally plays, and he got better as the season went on that year.

If limiting Cook in the early games helps the long term of the prognosis for Cooks full recovery then i would hope the coaching staff would do that. It also could help keep him fresh later on in the year when the games matter more.

I recall reading about Latavius Murray being better on his first 5 runs of the game then the next 10. So I would expect the Vikings to always use him, especially early on in games as they are trying to establish the run and set up the play action.

I just think if Cook is fully recovered it will be hard to take him off the field.

Edited by Biabreakable

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47 minutes ago, Borden said:

His website says 6-12 months. Link to his profile on his website. If you follow the tabs at the top you will get to the knee rehabilitation page (link) that says 6-12 months with a final visit at 9 to 12 months. Another link to his site talking about ACL reconstruction with 9 to 12 months as the recovery time.

that's not him,

 

edit: nevermind, it is, I am thinking of the concussion guy. 

I can only tell you what I heard and saw. everyone wants to hear 12 months so they are told 12 months. take it for what its worth it's clear you dont buy what I'm saying and that's fine. I'll pass in cook this year and try to invest in 2019. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

I'll take the under.  A lot went right for the Vikes last year.

In 2016 the Vikes had 380 rushing attempts.  500 is closer to the ceiling and not the correct projected number IMHO.

Like losing their starting QB after week 1 and losing their stud rookie RB for the season in week 4? 

Edited by Ghost Rider
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Just now, Ghost Rider said:

Like losing their starting QB after week 1 and losing their stud rookie RB for the season in week 4? 

A) Keenum was just fine

B) Cook has had an injury history dating back to high school

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

A) Keenum was just fine

B) Cook has had an injury history dating back to high school

Okay, but my point still stands.  It's hard to say a lot went right for a team that lost their starting QB AND RB. 

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5 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

A) Keenum was just fine

B) Cook has had an injury history dating back to high school

Bradford may be the most overrated QB in NFL history.

Keenum>>>Bradford

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Just now, Ghost Rider said:

Okay, but my point still stands.  It's hard to say a lot went right for a team that lost their starting QB AND RB. 

FTR, I meant a lot went right in terms of the team reaching 500 carries...that's pretty rare for any team.

I'd bet a lot on the under set at 500

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

FTR, I meant a lot went right in terms of the team reaching 500 carries...that's pretty rare for any team.

I'd bet a lot on the under set at 500

Agreed, that is a lot of carries.

To me, if Cook's knee is fine, I don't see Murray being a threat to take away a lot of touches.  Cook will be the workhouse and be a beast IF his knee is good to go. 

Edited by Ghost Rider

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Personally, I'm setting the Vikes up with a barely-noticeable dip in play volume (1055 down to 1049) and a run ratio (44%) that comes down from that wild 47% but remains squarely above league average.

It gives me 411 attempts for team running backs. Over a 16-game season, I give 283 (and 59 targets) to Cook.

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On 7/8/2018 at 0:20 AM, Dr. Dan said:

fantasy labs did one in 2015

"Since 1999, running backs coming off ACL surgery have produced right around two-thirds of the fantasy points on a per-game basis as compared to their pre-ACL selves. That’s a serious drop."

they discuss some who defied the odds (AP. Charles who declined but had a pro bowl year anyways) there will always outliers. Maybe Cook will be one. I wouldn't bet on it personally

Good pull, but there are also quite a few outliers going in the other direction. Guys who were aging, practice-squad types, and wild statistical anomalies. For example, the fact that Jamaal Charles dipped from 6.40 per carry to "just" 5.29 after the injury doesn't discourage me.

I'm no doc, of course. But I'm still most interested in when the injury (and ensuing surgery) occurred. A guy who tears it in Week 16, for example, needs to be treated as though he won't be in decent shape until October or so. Cook went down in Week 4; I'm willing to bet he's a full-go at some point before camp.

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