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Justin Howe

Dalvin Cook Player Spotlight

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Posted (edited)

16 minutes ago, Chaka said:

If you are going to do the three years average thing with Cousins, why not do it with the Vikings as a whole? Last year was definitely the high water mark for rushing attempts.

Well 2016 the offensive line was so bad that no RB could run effectively which forced them to abandon it. Their running game was as bad as any team since 1961 or something like that.

Seems like an anomalous part of the sample when compared to the other two seasons. People were somewhat correctly complaining about Sam Bradford throwing a lot of short passes, but the Vikings could not run the ball. Peterson had sucked trying to run the ball before he was injured. McKinnon had some sort of injury limiting him early on that year, and the Vikings also had Matt Asiata. Therefore the 380 rushing attempts is not representative of the teams overall philosophy and their desire to be balanced in run to pass ratio or to even run the ball more than they pass if they can do that effectively or not.

You also have a change in offensive system from Norv Turner Coryell roots to Pat Shurmur West Coast roots. Its different terminology and a different offensive system. For that reason and it being more recent, I think the 2017 season is the best model to consider for 2018 out of the 3 seasons, this was more plays overall, in part because of improved defense and changes to the offensive line, as well as the RBs.

The changes in offensive line personnel that allowed the Vikings to run the ball effectively enough to keep doing it.

The Vikings did bring in Latavius Murray to be their RB after Peterson was let go (due to money mostly, but also some noticable decline in ability from Peterson as well). They didn't know they would be able to draft Dalvin Cook. They didn't even have a 1st round pick to be planning on that possibility.

I can see what you are saying about the touches and snaps perhaps being lower for Cook at the start of the season. That is if the Vikings think that would be best for the team and Cook this season. Even though Peterson started the season, I do recall him seeming a bit stiff compared to how he normally plays, and he got better as the season went on that year.

If limiting Cook in the early games helps the long term of the prognosis for Cooks full recovery then i would hope the coaching staff would do that. It also could help keep him fresh later on in the year when the games matter more.

I recall reading about Latavius Murray being better on his first 5 runs of the game then the next 10. So I would expect the Vikings to always use him, especially early on in games as they are trying to establish the run and set up the play action.

I just think if Cook is fully recovered it will be hard to take him off the field.

Edited by Biabreakable

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Posted (edited)

47 minutes ago, Borden said:

His website says 6-12 months. Link to his profile on his website. If you follow the tabs at the top you will get to the knee rehabilitation page (link) that says 6-12 months with a final visit at 9 to 12 months. Another link to his site talking about ACL reconstruction with 9 to 12 months as the recovery time.

that's not him,

 

edit: nevermind, it is, I am thinking of the concussion guy. 

I can only tell you what I heard and saw. everyone wants to hear 12 months so they are told 12 months. take it for what its worth it's clear you dont buy what I'm saying and that's fine. I'll pass in cook this year and try to invest in 2019. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Posted (edited)

3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

I'll take the under.  A lot went right for the Vikes last year.

In 2016 the Vikes had 380 rushing attempts.  500 is closer to the ceiling and not the correct projected number IMHO.

Like losing their starting QB after week 1 and losing their stud rookie RB for the season in week 4? 

Edited by Ghost Rider
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Just now, Ghost Rider said:

Like losing their starting QB after week 1 and losing their stud rookie RB for the season in week 4? 

A) Keenum was just fine

B) Cook has had an injury history dating back to high school

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1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

A) Keenum was just fine

B) Cook has had an injury history dating back to high school

Okay, but my point still stands.  It's hard to say a lot went right for a team that lost their starting QB AND RB. 

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5 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

A) Keenum was just fine

B) Cook has had an injury history dating back to high school

Bradford may be the most overrated QB in NFL history.

Keenum>>>Bradford

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Just now, Ghost Rider said:

Okay, but my point still stands.  It's hard to say a lot went right for a team that lost their starting QB AND RB. 

FTR, I meant a lot went right in terms of the team reaching 500 carries...that's pretty rare for any team.

I'd bet a lot on the under set at 500

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Posted (edited)

1 minute ago, TripItUp said:

FTR, I meant a lot went right in terms of the team reaching 500 carries...that's pretty rare for any team.

I'd bet a lot on the under set at 500

Agreed, that is a lot of carries.

To me, if Cook's knee is fine, I don't see Murray being a threat to take away a lot of touches.  Cook will be the workhouse and be a beast IF his knee is good to go. 

Edited by Ghost Rider

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Personally, I'm setting the Vikes up with a barely-noticeable dip in play volume (1055 down to 1049) and a run ratio (44%) that comes down from that wild 47% but remains squarely above league average.

It gives me 411 attempts for team running backs. Over a 16-game season, I give 283 (and 59 targets) to Cook.

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On 7/8/2018 at 0:20 AM, Dr. Dan said:

fantasy labs did one in 2015

"Since 1999, running backs coming off ACL surgery have produced right around two-thirds of the fantasy points on a per-game basis as compared to their pre-ACL selves. That’s a serious drop."

they discuss some who defied the odds (AP. Charles who declined but had a pro bowl year anyways) there will always outliers. Maybe Cook will be one. I wouldn't bet on it personally

Good pull, but there are also quite a few outliers going in the other direction. Guys who were aging, practice-squad types, and wild statistical anomalies. For example, the fact that Jamaal Charles dipped from 6.40 per carry to "just" 5.29 after the injury doesn't discourage me.

I'm no doc, of course. But I'm still most interested in when the injury (and ensuing surgery) occurred. A guy who tears it in Week 16, for example, needs to be treated as though he won't be in decent shape until October or so. Cook went down in Week 4; I'm willing to bet he's a full-go at some point before camp.

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Posted (edited)

21 minutes ago, Justin Howe said:

Good pull, but there are also quite a few outliers going in the other direction. Guys who were aging, practice-squad types, and wild statistical anomalies. For example, the fact that Jamaal Charles dipped from 6.40 per carry to "just" 5.29 after the injury doesn't discourage me.

I'm no doc, of course. But I'm still most interested in when the injury (and ensuing surgery) occurred. A guy who tears it in Week 16, for example, needs to be treated as though he won't be in decent shape until October or so. Cook went down in Week 4; I'm willing to bet he's a full-go at some point before camp.

A 17% drop in YPA should absolutely discourage you.  If Cook suffers a 17% drop off in YPA that puts him at 4.0 YPA. Even a 10% dropoff puts him on par with Latavius Murray at 4.3 YPA.

I think there are only three RBs in NFL history (Barry, Jim Brown and Charles) who averaged above 5 YPC for their careers.  Despite a nice start to his career before the injury I think it's a little early to put Cook in with those three.

And Charles suffered his injury in week 2, September 18, 2011.

Edited by Chaka
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And should we really pencil in Cook for 4.8 YPA based upon 3 games and change? Do we really think he would have maintained that pace over 16 games?

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1 hour ago, Chaka said:

A 17% drop in YPA should absolutely discourage you.  If Cook suffers a 17% drop off in YPA that puts him at 4.0 YPA. Even a 10% dropoff puts him on par with Latavius Murray at 4.3 YPA.

I think there are only three RBs in NFL history (Barry, Jim Brown and Charles) who averaged above 5 YPC for their careers.  Despite a nice start to his career before the injury I think it's a little early to put Cook in with those three.

And Charles suffered his injury in week 2, September 18, 2011.

Adrian Peterson was 5 ypc average for his career prior to the 2016 season. He showed some decline on a lot of carries late in the 2015 season, then the 2016 season sealed it and his career ypc fell to 4.9 that year.

Of course Peterson who had MCL and ACL injuries in December of 2011 came back for the start of the 2012 season where he averaged 6 ypc and had a 2000+ rushing yard season, the best of his career.

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1 hour ago, Chaka said:

And should we really pencil in Cook for 4.8 YPA based upon 3 games and change? Do we really think he would have maintained that pace over 16 games?

I went with 4.5 ypc just because of regression to the mean considerations.

Of course Cook is dynamic enough that he may end up having higher than 4.8 ypc this season as well. Only time will tell.

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22 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I went with 4.5 ypc just because of regression to the mean considerations.

Of course Cook is dynamic enough that he may end up having higher than 4.8 ypc this season as well. Only time will tell.

A 4.5 YPC over a 16 game schedule and coming off ACL surgery.

I'll bet the house on the under.

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2 hours ago, Chaka said:

And should we really pencil in Cook for 4.8 YPA based upon 3 games and change? Do we really think he would have maintained that pace over 16 games?

I think it’s highly possible, Cook is a very special talent. He fell in the draft for the same reason Guice fell but that doesn’t take away how gifted they are.

Tex

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41 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

A 4.5 YPC over a 16 game schedule and coming off ACL surgery.

I'll bet the house on the under.

Well you already are predisposed to disliking Cook. 

This would be a bad beat for you I think and not a smart bet.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Adrian Peterson was 5 ypc average for his career prior to the 2016 season. He showed some decline on a lot of carries late in the 2015 season, then the 2016 season sealed it and his career ypc fell to 4.9 that year.

Of course Peterson who had MCL and ACL injuries in December of 2011 came back for the start of the 2012 season where he averaged 6 ypc and had a 2000+ rushing yard season, the best of his career.

Well I guess if we add Adrian Peterson to the group of Barry Sanders, Jim Brown and Jamaal Charles then it totally makes sense to put Cook in that group too.

Without Peterson? No way. But with him Cook absolutely earned the distinction.

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2 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Well I guess if we add Adrian Peterson to the group of Barry Sanders, Jim Brown and Jamaal Charles then it totally makes sense to put Cook in that group too.

Without Peterson? No way. But with him Cook absolutely earned the distinction.

Of course I am not saying Dalvin Cook is Adrian Peterson. I think what Peterson did in 2012 was pretty special and I certainly didnt expect him to do what he did. It is part of his legend.

I did think it was relevant to the discussion at hand however since the only real argument that people seem to have about Dalvin Cook right now is how well and how quickly he will recover from ACL.

Same medical staff in place here.

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42 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Of course I am not saying Dalvin Cook is Adrian Peterson. I think what Peterson did in 2012 was pretty special and I certainly didnt expect him to do what he did. It is part of his legend.

I did think it was relevant to the discussion at hand however since the only real argument that people seem to have about Dalvin Cook right now is how well and how quickly he will recover from ACL.

Same medical staff in place here.

There isn't a whole lot of negative to say aside from his knee. That is very unknown at this point. No one knows how that knee will feel when he is at playing speed, not even Cook. 

If that knee is fine, and he holds up okay, yeah he is likely going to have a top 10 season and be very effective. I can't find much to dislike about him.

 

Another point being made about Watson, another hot rookie who got hurt last year, that I think holds true for Cook is that his rookie season was a very small sample size. So it's hard to really grade him. Hunt started out hot too and by the end was barely startable. So there are questions baout Hunt going into this season. No one knows, and we can only speculate, but it is reasonably possible that Cook could have had a similar slide as the season went on. 

 

 

I agree with what was said above, Cooks is being graded and drafted at what would be considered his ceiling, not really his floor/average. While I think he's one of the better RBs in the NFL, from a fantasy football standpoint he might not be the best value pick in drafts. Some of the predictions in here are staggering, you'd think you were in the Saquon Barkley thread

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

There isn't a whole lot of negative to say aside from his knee. That is very unknown at this point. No one knows how that knee will feel when he is at playing speed, not even Cook. 

If that knee is fine, and he holds up okay, yeah he is likely going to have a top 10 season and be very effective. I can't find much to dislike about him.

 

Another point being made about Watson, another hot rookie who got hurt last year, that I think holds true for Cook is that his rookie season was a very small sample size. So it's hard to really grade him. Hunt started out hot too and by the end was barely startable. So there are questions baout Hunt going into this season. No one knows, and we can only speculate, but it is reasonably possible that Cook could have had a similar slide as the season went on. 

 

 

I agree with what was said above, Cooks is being graded and drafted at what would be considered his ceiling, not really his floor/average. While I think he's one of the better RBs in the NFL, from a fantasy football standpoint he might not be the best value pick in drafts. Some of the predictions in here are staggering, you'd think you were in the Saquon Barkley thread

Small sample size is certainly a challenge as far as trying to project for him over a full season, not enough data, and I totally agree that over a full season things tend to progress/regress towards the average and things like ypc may have been lower when you quadruple his rushing attempts as happens with most players. Other factors such as injuries to the Vikings offensive linemen I think made running the ball a bit harder as the season went on. Those early games the Vikings had some surprise factor with the new blocking shceme and personnel, including Cook that teams would adjust to over the course of the year.

However with the addition of Cousins, I think this sort of cancels itself out. If I were looking at a 16 game sample for Cook, I would expect numbers to improve with Cousins as the QB instead of Keenum/Bradford. 

Also Cook made some mistakes that I would expect him to correct and not make as frequently as is represented by this sample.

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Just now, Biabreakable said:

Small sample size is certainly a challenge as far as trying to project for him over a full season, not enough data, and I totally agree that over a full season things tend to progress/regress towards the average and things like ypc may have been lower when you quadruple his rushing attempts as happens with most players. Other factors such as injuries to the Vikings offensive linemen I think made running the ball a bit harder as the season went on. Those early games the Vikings had some surprise factor with the new blocking shceme and personnel, including Cook that teams would adjust to over the course of the year.

However with the addition of Cousins, I think this sort of cancels itself out. If I were looking at a 16 game sample for Cook, I would expect numbers to improve with Cousins as the QB instead of Keenum/Bradford. 

Also Cook made some mistakes that I would expect him to correct and not make as frequently as is represented by this sample.

I completely agree. Cousins helps Cooks outlook a lot

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Of course I am not saying Dalvin Cook is Adrian Peterson. I think what Peterson did in 2012 was pretty special and I certainly didnt expect him to do what he did. It is part of his legend.

I did think it was relevant to the discussion at hand however since the only real argument that people seem to have about Dalvin Cook right now is how well and how quickly he will recover from ACL.

Same medical staff in place here.

I know you weren't but it speaks to the point that the big argument I am seeing about why the knee won't be an issue is to cite two of the best RBs to ever play the game. 

I love him long term and think he'll be fine in 2018, I just caution against expecting his three+ game average from 2017 to be his norm this season. And I think 4.5 is pretty optimistic too.

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4 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I know you weren't but it speaks to the point that the big argument I am seeing about why the knee won't be an issue is to cite two of the best RBs to ever play the game. 

I love him long term and think he'll be fine in 2018, I just caution against expecting his three+ game average from 2017 to be his norm this season. And I think 4.5 is pretty optimistic too.

:goodposting:

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3 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I know you weren't but it speaks to the point that the big argument I am seeing about why the knee won't be an issue is to cite two of the best RBs to ever play the game. 

I love him long term and think he'll be fine in 2018, I just caution against expecting his three+ game average from 2017 to be his norm this season. And I think 4.5 is pretty optimistic too.

I don't think 4.5 is optimistic since I consider Dalvin Cook an above average talent at RB and he posted a 4.8 ypc in the games he did play. So basically just splitting the difference of his ypc for 3.5 games with the average of 4.2 which = 4.5

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I don't think 4.5 is optimistic since I consider Dalvin Cook an above average talent at RB and he posted a 4.8 ypc in the games he did play. So basically just splitting the difference of his ypc for 3.5 games with the average of 4.2 which = 4.5

Personally I think, if he had played 16 he would have ended the season closer to 4.5 than 4.8 and I would project my downtick from that position.  I could see 4.2 on the season where maybe he finishes the season in the 4.5 range over the last few games.

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10 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Personally I think, if he had played 16 he would have ended the season closer to 4.5 than 4.8 and I would project my downtick from that position.  I could see 4.2 on the season where maybe he finishes the season in the 4.5 range over the last few games.

I do not understand why.

He had 4.8 over the 3.5 games that he played. It wasn't 4.5 maybe it would have been on 200+ carries, maybe it wouldn't. As I said he slipped on a couple plays which if he didn't would have led to longer plays. Those mistakes are part of this sample.

To say you don't think he could average more than 4.2 at the beginning of the season is ignoring the fact that Cook was above 5 ypc in 3 of the 4 games that he played. The game against Tampa Bay was a complete blow out and they gave Cook 27 rushing attempts, a lot of those just winding down the clock with the game in hard.

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7 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I do not understand why.

He had 4.8 over the 3.5 games that he played. It wasn't 4.5 maybe it would have been on 200+ carries, maybe it wouldn't. As I said he slipped on a couple plays which if he didn't would have led to longer plays. Those mistakes are part of this sample.

To say you don't think he could average more than 4.2 at the beginning of the season is ignoring the fact that Cook was above 5 ypc in 3 of the 4 games that he played. The game against Tampa Bay was a complete blow out and they gave Cook 27 rushing attempts, a lot of those just winding down the clock with the game in hard.

Because 4.8 is an amazing average and I have seen too many fast starts peter out over the course of a season. I think it is not realistic to expect that he would have continued at that pace.  You do, no big deal.

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I do not understand why.

He had 4.8 over the 3.5 games that he played. It wasn't 4.5 maybe it would have been on 200+ carries, maybe it wouldn't. As I said he slipped on a couple plays which if he didn't would have led to longer plays. Those mistakes are part of this sample.

To say you don't think he could average more than 4.2 at the beginning of the season is ignoring the fact that Cook was above 5 ypc in 3 of the 4 games that he played. The game against Tampa Bay was a complete blow out and they gave Cook 27 rushing attempts, a lot of those just winding down the clock with the game in hard.

Bia, everybody respects your opinions, at a minimum they are well thought out and have reasoning.  

 

There are just several of use that expect his YPC to regress because A) 4.5 is historically a really high number and B) he's coming off ACL surgery.

 

Not a big deal, I think each of us know where we stand.  :shrug:

 

ETA:  If Vegas set a line I'm pretty sure it would be below 4.5.  That doesn't mean anything, just food for thought.

Edited by TripItUp

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On 7/8/2018 at 7:06 PM, Zyphros said:

Just came in to read :ph34r:

One of the better hard stances on the board, it will be interesting how this plays out. 

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Man, some really strong opinions in this thread.

I agree with the sentiment that everything went right for the Vikings last year. Sure, Bradford got injured but Keenum performed better than the team was probably expecting Bradford to perform, so IMO that still counts as things going right. The result is all that matters. The offense was clicking and the defense was rock solid. It will be very difficult for the 2018 team to perform better even if they look better on paper.

I don't understand people brushing the loss of Shurmur under the rug. We see this happen every year. An OC leaves and they promote from within or hire someone who runs a similar offense and there's always the promise of continuity from last year, but then... we find out why the OC got promoted to HC. Turns out not all offensive coordinators are plug and play. Should we be surprised by this every year? When will people learn that OCs are not unlike players? Just because one guy has a similar style to the other doesn't mean he'll be just as good. Granted, sometimes it works. Much less than half the time, but sometimes it does.

And sure Cousins is better than Keenum on paper. I'm no Keenum fan. But the fact remains that 2017 Keenum played well. Personally, I'll be surprised if Cousins is able to maintain a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. I would bet against it. I'll take the under on 67.6% completion percentage, too. The 7.37 YPA will probably be similar, although Cousins has a decent shot to beat that one aspect. 

As for Dalvin himself, I get why people are excited. He was originally projected to be a 1st rounder. He ran a nice 40, but that was the first and last thing he did well at the combine. The rest of his combine hurt his draft stock. Those who were believers before the combine feel vindicated by his 3.5 games. Those who were wary point out just about anything can happen in 3.5 games.

I'm in the middle. I didn't know what to make of Dalvin before the draft. Still don't. I've watched this game enough to know that when an offense is clicking as well as Minnesota's was, it doesn't take a special player to put up special stats. I've even seen non-special players put up special stats on awful offenses in the span of 3-4 games. I've seen guys come back from ACL injuries on fire and I've seen guys come back a little slower for the following season. I've seen OC changes so smooth you wouldn't know a change happened and I've seen new offensive coordinators totally flop. I've seen QB upgrades on paper that turned out to be downgrades in reality. At Dalvin's price in both redraft and dynasty, I don't like the gamble. You should be getting a player you are confident in at that price. And in order to be confident in this situation, one must overlook some pretty big risk factors.

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Stat that I think matters: Latavius Murray went 10 for 10 on carries where 1 yard was needed for a 1st down or TD. That was the best rate(obviously) of any RB in the NFL. He was also a very good short yardage back in Oakland. With Cook coming off knee surgery, short yardage is the most sensible place to ease his workload, especially since Murray is better at it anyway. I like Cook as a player, but its very easy to see a scenario where he only has 7-8 TD's.

Interestingly, the only other RB with a 100% success rate on short yardage carries was Peyton Barber at 6 of 6. Like Cook, that also gives me some pause on Ronald Jones.

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20 minutes ago, travdogg said:

 

Interestingly, the only other RB with a 100% success rate on short yardage carries was Peyton Barber at 6 of 6. Like Cook, that also gives me some pause on Ronald Jones.

not to hijack, but watch Jones' game tape vs. Ohio state...not good.   Kid is way overrated IMHO.

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Posted (edited)

I am on board. I think a decent case could be made either on Cook. His injury history is a big red flag, but I am gonna trust my eyes and gamble on a big return. I have him in tiered with Fournette and Gordon, in no particular order.

Edited by 32 Counter Pass

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10 hours ago, TripItUp said:

not to hijack, but watch Jones' game tape vs. Ohio state...not good.   Kid is way overrated IMHO.

I agree and disagree. I think Jones is overrated as a prospect but for redraft, he seems underrated. 

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38 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I agree and disagree. I think Jones is overrated as a prospect but for redraft, he seems underrated. 

That might be true, I just hate his game tape and was never impressed with him as a runner in college.  Was actually shocked when I saw his name popping up as a top RB prospect.

Tampa doesn't have much else so he'll get volume.

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3 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

 

That might be true, I just hate his game tape and was never impressed with him as a runner in college.  Was actually shocked when I saw his name popping up as a top RB prospect.

Tampa doesn't have much else so he'll get volume.

Right, I was really not a big fan and then he landed in Tampa which is just such a wide open situation. 

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That USC offensive line was atrocious. Hard to make any conclusions from the OSU game. Line got worked hard.

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7 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

That USC offensive line was atrocious. Hard to make any conclusions from the OSU game. Line got worked hard.

Sanquon Barkley had 21 rushing attempts for 44 yards (2.1 ypc) 1 TD 4 receptions 23 yards against Ohio State in 2017.

Barkley has some fantastic plays in this game. He also has a lot of carries for loss with the defense beating the offensive line right away and meeting him in the backfield over and over again.

From my charting Barkley gjsf a 61 overall score, so slightly above average even though he didn't create many yards, a lot of them are on his TD run which is beautiful. 

Ronald Jones had 19 rushing attempts 64 yards (3.4 ypc 0 receptions against Ohio State in 2017.

Jones has some excellent plays in this game, but like Barkley is meeting defenders in the backfield on a frequent basis.Jones shows his speed and burst on a few of these plays as well as some good footwork and shake ability when met by the first defender. The QB isn't fairing much better as the defense is playing in the backfield most of the game.

From my charting Jones had s 36 which is below average even though he didn't create many yards, his TD was in short yardage, got just a good enough block from the TE on the LB to give him the edge on the left side. Jones shows his burst by being able to run by a defender who has penetrated on his left and finds a lane up the middle to his right largely because of that burst and timing. He doesn't get much room to run like this often and takes advantage of it. Some other gritty plays where he uses his hand to keep from going down and is able to further advance the ball, good balance to not go down from the previous contact.

 

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