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AFC South projections, improved play (1 Viewer)

Bri

Footballguy
In prior years, the AFC South was a pitiful division with the Titans and Jags having a who is worst contest, Andrew Luck being the entire Colts offense, and no one discussing the Texans O because they couldn't stop gushing over JJ Watt. 

Such is the way the draft is supposed to work, the division is loaded with some of the best young talent in the NFL and things changed last year. The Jags made it to the AFCC and the Titans won a playoff game. Luck, one of the better QBs, should return from injury. No disrespect to Kamara, but DeShaun Watson was the most exciting rookie in 2017.

The defenses are as impressive as the offenses in this division. How are you projecting the offenses with several matchups against tough Ds? 

The Jags secondary is ridiculously good and had some incredible stats last season. You can't predict goose eggs for Hopkins each week. The Titans boast five former starters at CB and an all pro safety. One of the CBs is possibly the best athlete in the NFL but...again, you're not gonna predict goose eggs for Hopkins against them.

Fournette- no one respected the Jags passer or offensive line and teams stacked 542 players in the box, but he ran well anyway. He did that as a rookie! They did a heckuva job rebuilding Bortles and now the Jags have a sincere passing game. So now what? 

The Texans absurdly talented bookend DEs....no one moves Jurrell Casey....

On and on and on, how are you projecting things? Also, are you imagining big games when they play out of the division?

 
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While its nice that you offer some praise for the Jags 2017 Season  That sure is some header to leadoff with stating something about a worst contest

The Jaguars defense led the league in forced fumbles (17), completion percentage (56.8), passing yards allowed per game (169.9), passer rating (68.5) and defensive touchdowns (7).  Along with their spectacular defense, the Jaguars were also the top rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 141 rush yards per game.  

(So yeah not so sure why anyone cares to knock the Jag's...)

  But why would you choose to upvote Luck at this point in time in such a way?  HC Reich was referred to as the best "backup QB" of all time when drafted  IF Luck isn't close to 100% I'd suspect Coach happily using Brissett to the best of his abilities  Also with the addition of players like Quenton Nelson, Brissett's third year in the League could be quite eventful  Now I'm not saying to either pass on Luck much less overpay on Brissette  But I can't exactly see referring to Luck as being the entire Colts offense  Do you not have apprehension for RB's returning from leg injuries?  I'm asking in tongue in cheek fashion in hopes that the post stays more to the point about speculation as to how the AFC South performs 

On a personal level, I can't see but the Jaguars actually being worth much discussion  I would hope to see the Colts someone shock me though

 
Jags are the favorite but it’s anyones division. If luck/Watson are healthy those teams are to be reckoned with. As good as the jags were at running last year, Tennessee is a team that could unseat them this year as top rushing team. Can mariota/bortles take a step forward? Can luck be as good as he was or even play at all? Is Watson the real deal?

1. Jags- elite defense is the difference

2. Tennessee- solid defense and a couple all pro olinemen make them a tough team

3. Houston- still looking for answers in the run game, Watson is boss but has some growing pains. Defense not what it used to be

4. Colts- Luck could be the best qb in the division, but the rest of the team ranks at the bottom in almost every area. Hard to overcome when you’re trying to come back from injury yourself.

 
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might want to change that to read 

4. Brissett could be the best QB in the division. ;-)

but seriously,he might actually be the best in that division. who knows about Watson, Bortles stinks, and Luck is finished.

 
Jags are the favorite but it’s anyones division. If luck/Watson are healthy those teams are to be reckoned with. As good as the jags were at running last year, Tennessee is a team that could unseat them this year as top rushing team. Can mariota/bortles take a step forward? Can luck be as good as he was or even play at all? Is Watson the real deal?

1. Jags- elite defense is the difference

2. Tennessee- solid defense and a couple all pro olinemen make them a tough team

3. Houston- still looking for answers in the run game, Watson is boss but has some growing pains. Defense not what it used to be

4. Colts- Luck could be the best qb in the division, but the rest of the team ranks at the bottom in almost every area. Hard to overcome when you’re trying to come back from injury yourself.
Colts OL will soon turn from a need to a strength, starting this year.

 
might want to change that to read 

4. Brissett could be the best QB in the division. ;-)

but seriously,he might actually be the best in that division. who knows about Watson, Bortles stinks, and Luck is finished.
:lmao:

You conveniently omitted someone. Who might be better than luck all things considered this year. 

(Yeah I'm a Titans fan, with a man crush on MM)

 
might want to change that to read 

4. Brissett could be the best QB in the division. ;-)

but seriously,he might actually be the best in that division. who knows about Watson, Bortles stinks, and Luck is finished.
Sure doesn't appear that way at the moment.

 
While its nice that you offer some praise for the Jags 2017 Season  That sure is some header to leadoff with stating something about a worst contest

The Jaguars defense led the league in forced fumbles (17), completion percentage (56.8), passing yards allowed per game (169.9), passer rating (68.5) and defensive touchdowns (7).  Along with their spectacular defense, the Jaguars were also the top rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 141 rush yards per game.  

(So yeah not so sure why anyone cares to knock the Jag's...)

  But why would you choose to upvote Luck at this point in time in such a way?  HC Reich was referred to as the best "backup QB" of all time when drafted  IF Luck isn't close to 100% I'd suspect Coach happily using Brissett to the best of his abilities  Also with the addition of players like Quenton Nelson, Brissett's third year in the League could be quite eventful  Now I'm not saying to either pass on Luck much less overpay on Brissette  But I can't exactly see referring to Luck as being the entire Colts offense  Do you not have apprehension for RB's returning from leg injuries?  I'm asking in tongue in cheek fashion in hopes that the post stays more to the point about speculation as to how the AFC South performs 

On a personal level, I can't see but the Jaguars actually being worth much discussion  I would hope to see the Colts someone shock me though
I added a few words since you didn't seem to understand I was mentioning before 2017. I wrote last year things changed but...whatever, should be more clear now.

Reich was not referred to as the best backup QB of all time when he was drafted. He was to replace Vince Ferragamo as the starter. It wasn't til years later, the USFL folded and Jim Kelly established himself as a stud, that Reich and Buffalo fans even completely accepted that he was going to be a backup. New Yorkers have a way of arguing over their guys and the Giants really won this argument at the time. Jeff Rutledge was an excellent reliever. After, Jeff Hostetler would join the Giants and receive plenty of praise. The New Yorkers were somewhat offbase. Mark Rypien would go from backup to winning the Super Bowl. As we know, it doesn't get any better than Steve Young backing up Joe Montana. Reich really didn't get into any memorable games til years later. At the time, NFL teams fielded three quarterbacks. The assured backup was a third-stringer referred to as a developmental player. They were not drafted in the third round. As such, Reich was not in any shape or manner referred to as the best backup QB of all time when he was drafted.

Frank Gore had a wealth of games under 50 yards rushing and only 4 100 yard games in three years with the Colts. I am not alone in saying Luck was their offense. 

Jacoby Brissett did a good job of breathing some life into the team and performed better than expected. The Colts only won four games, he only threw for 300 yards twice, never threw for more than two touchdowns, and six (five) times he didn't even throw for 200 yards. Luck averages 1100 more yards per season, double the amount of touchdowns, and 10 wins. Your lack of respect for Luck could be a Jaguar fan bias which can be fun at times, but it really serves little purpose in a statistical comparison or projection thread.

Your comment about RBs is extremely vague

The title is AFC South so people are welcome to discuss any of the teams here, not just the Jaguars. 

 
Jags are the favorite but it’s anyones division. If luck/Watson are healthy those teams are to be reckoned with. As good as the jags were at running last year, Tennessee is a team that could unseat them this year as top rushing team. Can mariota/bortles take a step forward? Can luck be as good as he was or even play at all? Is Watson the real deal?

1. Jags- elite defense is the difference

2. Tennessee- solid defense and a couple all pro olinemen make them a tough team

3. Houston- still looking for answers in the run game, Watson is boss but has some growing pains. Defense not what it used to be

4. Colts- Luck could be the best qb in the division, but the rest of the team ranks at the bottom in almost every area. Hard to overcome when you’re trying to come back from injury yourself.
I agree with much of this. How do you project guys in the division? 

I'd want to give Hopkins 1300 yards or so, but in some vein I could see the Jaguars secondary smothering him twice. I'm not wholly sure yet if Adoree is a shutdown corner but my goodness is he a fantastic athlete so I'm not about to put it past him. If I start thinking per game, I can only project like 800 yards for Hopkins and that seems completely unreasonable. 

I thought the Titans gave a good blueprint as how to beat the Jags. Their D is too talented, ya gotta man up and pretend Gibbs or Parcells is coaching and take the run game right at em'. It'll be a Fournette versus your back battle, but so be it. Their secondary is not just very good but they're oh so ready to intercept and turn the tide of a game. When Henry trucked Ramsey, I felt like they were deflated. The Steelers didn't run LeVeon into the ground and I thought they could have won if they tried for some obscene number of carries for him. I love AB too, but if those DL are pinning their ears back and the secondary is licking their chops, you're asking for trouble. Since no one else has Brady, I don't think the Pats rhythmic short passing success can be emulated so I come roundabout to the Titans just going mano y mano with their linemen and having Henry rumble at them. The division should have the backs and linemen (and blocking TEs) that can give this a good shot. The Titans didn't run for many yards and Mariota actually had a good chunk but like I said, it seemed to really deflate them soooo I'm stuck projecting RBs in this division too.

As long as Watt and Clowney are healthy, they're nightmares. Luck is coming off injury. Mariota was hurt but played through and has been hurt the prior years. Bortles has been strong health wise. Throw in the Jags DL and Watson coming off of injury to include them here. No one wants their QBs playing these guys. The people in Indy will collectively gasp at the same time if Luck gets sacked by Watt. The Titans drafted LBs and should be able to have Morgan and Orakpo play some faux DE role on third downs as if the division needed more pass rushers. It's part of the game, but do I really want to draft a QB in this division? I love Mariota, Watson, and Luck but it sadly seems like a safe prediction that I'm gonna need my backup QB in FF and better draft one somewhat early. 

 
. It's part of the game, but do I really want to draft a QB in this division? I love Mariota, Watson, and Luck but it sadly seems like a safe prediction that I'm gonna need my backup QB in FF and better draft one somewhat early. 
I do. Watson goes really high, top 4 in my leagues which is a little high for my liking but he can be worth it. Mariota is being drafted as a backup in average sized leagues. Last week I took him as the 16th QB in a dynasty, after Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, trubisky, Stafford, Brees, Winston, cousins, and the guys you'd expect. I'll take that value all day (actually traded up to get him). (Fwiw, Goff is my QB1, will probably play qbbc all year). 

 
I agree with much of this. How do you project guys in the division? 

I'd want to give Hopkins 1300 yards or so, but in some vein I could see the Jaguars secondary smothering him twice. I'm not wholly sure yet if Adoree is a shutdown corner but my goodness is he a fantastic athlete so I'm not about to put it past him. If I start thinking per game, I can only project like 800 yards for Hopkins and that seems completely unreasonable. 

I thought the Titans gave a good blueprint as how to beat the Jags. Their D is too talented, ya gotta man up and pretend Gibbs or Parcells is coaching and take the run game right at em'. It'll be a Fournette versus your back battle, but so be it. Their secondary is not just very good but they're oh so ready to intercept and turn the tide of a game. When Henry trucked Ramsey, I felt like they were deflated. The Steelers didn't run LeVeon into the ground and I thought they could have won if they tried for some obscene number of carries for him. I love AB too, but if those DL are pinning their ears back and the secondary is licking their chops, you're asking for trouble. Since no one else has Brady, I don't think the Pats rhythmic short passing success can be emulated so I come roundabout to the Titans just going mano y mano with their linemen and having Henry rumble at them. The division should have the backs and linemen (and blocking TEs) that can give this a good shot. The Titans didn't run for many yards and Mariota actually had a good chunk but like I said, it seemed to really deflate them soooo I'm stuck projecting RBs in this division too.

As long as Watt and Clowney are healthy, they're nightmares. Luck is coming off injury. Mariota was hurt but played through and has been hurt the prior years. Bortles has been strong health wise. Throw in the Jags DL and Watson coming off of injury to include them here. No one wants their QBs playing these guys. The people in Indy will collectively gasp at the same time if Luck gets sacked by Watt. The Titans drafted LBs and should be able to have Morgan and Orakpo play some faux DE role on third downs as if the division needed more pass rushers. It's part of the game, but do I really want to draft a QB in this division? I love Mariota, Watson, and Luck but it sadly seems like a safe prediction that I'm gonna need my backup QB in FF and better draft one somewhat early. 
WR

Hopkins is about as qb/matchup proof as they come, I draft with confidence. 

TY still comes in at #2 for me, but I feel better if luck is back there. 

Davis should have a full camp and continue the momentum he built at the end of last year and in the playoffs. Offensive philosophy may cap his production. 

Fuller seems legit, and if Watson continues to push the deep ball, Fuller will benefit. 

The rest: take your pick late with any Jax wr, rishard Mathews deserves a mention, deon Cain perhaps.

RB

Henry- I know it may be bullish to rank henry over fournette, but i worry about fournettes foot holding up. Also cost of acquisition- henry is much cheaper than fournette. Good oline to run behind, good defense. Lewis will have his role, but so will henry and I think it’s a pretty clear backfield where others don’t. 

Fournette- if he plays 16 games he should be at the top of the list. I see yeldon and grant having some work as well in order to take some of the load off. 

Mack- de facto #1 on an Indy team with more questions than answers. I thought pass catching was a strength, but now they bring in Hines. Wilkins getting some praise. I won’t overpay.

Lewis- will have a defined role and get a decent workload as cop/3rd down/2 minute back. If henry misses any time Lewis would get a big boost. 

I don’t want any part of Houston’s backfield but Miller may be criminally underrated for this year. People jumping on the foreman bandwagon when he can’t even run. 

The rest: Hines is intriguing, and Wilkins is a cheap get for redraft or dynasty, so I’m happy to take that flier. For dynasty, target yeldon for a throw in as he’s in a contract year. UDFA akrum wadley is a name to file away as well, could get passing work if henry or Lewis goes down (Lewis getting henry work if henry goes down.) Grant in jax showed well last year. 

QB

watson is probably overpriced

mariota could be a good value

luck will struggle behind an inferior team

bortles isn’t going to suddenly light it up.

TE

hopefully you’ve looked in another division for your starter. 

ASJ- he’s the only guy who I could see having a te1 year. 

Walker- Lewis, Davis, and maybe jonnu Smith should command more targets in the offense.

doyle/Ebron- will eat into each other

houston- waiting for someone to emerge, probably where we all go for a ww filler. 

 
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I think Houston takes the division. They had a ridiculous amount of injuries last year to include several superstars. They have a budding superstar in Watson with a solid supportin cast. 

The Titans will battle for first as well. This could be the year Mariota takes the next step. 

I'm just not feeling the Jags this year but they will be competitive.

Colts.

 
This division has been fun to watch develop. I'll say:
1. Jacksonville. Defense leads the way. Bortles is so bad but even Dilfer won a super bowl.

2. Tennessee. Mariota is the best QB in this division. Offense is going to be very exciting this year. I see them tying Jacksonville by record this year. 

3. Houston. Some question marks yet on defense, and Watson is still unknown; is he that good or was it just rookie success as being a rather unknown?

4. Indianapolis. Luck is toast. I expect them to trade Hilton away. This team is a dumpster fire. 

1-3 are pretty much a toss up.
I went with Jacksonville because they have the best defense in the division, possibly the league.
Houston also has a great defense but it's been banged up and overall tough to figure out.
Tennessee will have the best offense in this division by far

 
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 I am not alone in saying Luck was their offense. 
Oh okay  

For the record, I'm a fan of Brissett having both owned and started in a 2QB League who has went from attempts at buying Luck in the past to having almost been begged to acquire from a team with legit starters  Read: Basically I did not want to rip the guy off in a sense while creating unbalance in the League  However, I personally suspect there is still some risk involved in paying even a fair price for Luck's acquisition  I also realize Brissett has been asked to game manage in a similar position that Luck was able to show elite passing skills  I really just did not care much for referring to Luck as their  current to date " entire Offense "  Reason being that whose to say Luck will play much less play at 100%  Hopefully, you can choose to respect my take  Honestly, Bri if I can somehow ignore your choice of wording, I actually can agree with your sentiment  For instance, Mike Clay recently ranked their backfield dead last which is a near death sentence for most any game manager QB

Hypothetically speaking let's say we're able to co-manage a Team for an upcoming draft.  We start off RB's landing Kamara and Howard then moving to WR we wind up with Evans and Gordon who we pair with another Evans at TE then going back to WR for Funchess  We're more or less in agreement on a few more players until we both decide to draft our 1st QB...  Would you rather we acquire Luck or be willing to wait for one  Rnd in hopes to draft Rivers  (Let's just assume it means paying full price for Luck)  Not only that but we both desire to loadup on RB's following the pick  Wouldn't it seem a bit of risk? Even looking past the actual recovery but more towards not even having played in such a period of time  I don't know maybe I am a bit more of a Luck fan because the idea appears to be growing on me as I write  

Back to the OP Evan Silva graded the Colts as a B in the draft  http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/79600/174/2018-afc-draft-grades?pg=1  In other words maybe it's quite short-sighted to focus only on both a defensive and backfield rank of near dead last for the Colts  

Bottom line it's nice for me to finally see Jax playing some good ball  Honestly, hope to read some positive posts on both Tenn and Hou because both Teams have not appeared to perform up to my expected potential  I can possibly start by referencing the fact that Honey Badger now plays for Hou which is a nice compliment to the reference "Bookend DE's"

 
Oh okay  

For the record, I'm a fan of Brissett having both owned and started in a 2QB League who has went from attempts at buying Luck in the past to having almost been begged to acquire from a team with legit starters  Read: Basically I did not want to rip the guy off in a sense while creating unbalance in the League  However, I personally suspect there is still some risk involved in paying even a fair price for Luck's acquisition  I also realize Brissett has been asked to game manage in a similar position that Luck was able to show elite passing skills  I really just did not care much for referring to Luck as their  current to date " entire Offense "  Reason being that whose to say Luck will play much less play at 100%  Hopefully, you can choose to respect my take  Honestly, Bri if I can somehow ignore your choice of wording, I actually can agree with your sentiment  For instance, Mike Clay recently ranked their backfield dead last which is a near death sentence for most any game manager QB

Hypothetically speaking let's say we're able to co-manage a Team for an upcoming draft.  We start off RB's landing Kamara and Howard then moving to WR we wind up with Evans and Gordon who we pair with another Evans at TE then going back to WR for Funchess  We're more or less in agreement on a few more players until we both decide to draft our 1st QB...  Would you rather we acquire Luck or be willing to wait for one  Rnd in hopes to draft Rivers  (Let's just assume it means paying full price for Luck)  Not only that but we both desire to loadup on RB's following the pick  Wouldn't it seem a bit of risk? Even looking past the actual recovery but more towards not even having played in such a period of time  I don't know maybe I am a bit more of a Luck fan because the idea appears to be growing on me as I write  

Back to the OP Evan Silva graded the Colts as a B in the draft  http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/79600/174/2018-afc-draft-grades?pg=1  In other words maybe it's quite short-sighted to focus only on both a defensive and backfield rank of near dead last for the Colts  

Bottom line it's nice for me to finally see Jax playing some good ball  Honestly, hope to read some positive posts on both Tenn and Hou because both Teams have not appeared to perform up to my expected potential  I can possibly start by referencing the fact that Honey Badger now plays for Hou which is a nice compliment to the reference "Bookend DE's"
You own Bissett and are a Jags fan, that's obvious

 
This division has been fun to watch develop. I'll say:
1. Jacksonville. Defense leads the way. Bortles is so bad but even Dilfer won a super bowl.

2. Tennessee. Mariota is the best QB in this division. Offense is going to be very exciting this year. I see them tying Jacksonville by record this year. 

3. Houston. Some question marks yet on defense, and Watson is still unknown; is he that good or was it just rookie success as being a rather unknown?

4. Indianapolis. Luck is toast. I expect them to trade Hilton away. This team is a dumpster fire. 

1-3 are pretty much a toss up.
I went with Jacksonville because they have the best defense in the division, possibly the league.
Houston also has a great defense but it's been banged up and overall tough to figure out.
Tennessee will have the best offense in this division by far
I wonder if Luck is done, can't help it, but they sure took their time and seem to have done whatever necessary for him to return to his old form. Any other team would have probably rushed him back or....something. Every time last year that there was a report, they were patient. I give them credit for that and I hope it pays dividends for them this year.

Their new Gm was very highly regarded. He can't be expected to build Rome in a day, but I have a hmmm attitude about him. I don't like XYZ so what's he up to if he's such a good football mind? 

Imagine if Watson turns out like Griffin? A wow rookie season followed by implosion. Texans fans would rip their hair out. I think Watson is like Dak, he has the IT factor and people in the draft were just dead wrong in evaluating how valuable that would be. I know he went 12, but when he is "on fire" 12 seems far too low.

 
I wonder if Luck is done, can't help it, but they sure took their time and seem to have done whatever necessary for him to return to his old form. Any other team would have probably rushed him back or....something. Every time last year that there was a report, they were patient. I give them credit for that and I hope it pays dividends for them this year.

Their new Gm was very highly regarded. He can't be expected to build Rome in a day, but I have a hmmm attitude about him. I don't like XYZ so what's he up to if he's such a good football mind? 

Imagine if Watson turns out like Griffin? A wow rookie season followed by implosion. Texans fans would rip their hair out. I think Watson is like Dak, he has the IT factor and people in the draft were just dead wrong in evaluating how valuable that would be. I know he went 12, but when he is "on fire" 12 seems far too low.
I have a suspicion something isnt right with luck. I dont believe has thrown a regulation size football yet and there is talk he may not be ready to start the season. when I try to think what could have gone wrong that resulted in him missing the entire season, the only things I can think of make me run away from him. I'm seriously concerned about nerve damage. it's one of a small number of things that make sense given what's happened since surgery.  I don't think IND chose to be patient with him; I think they had to be. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I have a suspicion something isnt right with luck. I dont believe has thrown a regulation size football yet and there is talk he may not be ready to start the season. when I try to think what could have gone wrong that resulted in him missing the entire season, the only things I can think of make me run away from him. I'm seriously concerned about nerve damage. it's one of a small number of things that make sense given what's happened since surgery.  I don't think IND chose to be patient with him; I think they had to be. 
He's throwing and a lot too. http://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/kevins-corner/colts-coverage/andrew-luck-throwing-colts-wide-receivers-week-stanford

As far as the rest, maybe so. It seems like at some point we'll get "the real story" on what happened. I don't forget that Peyton's career was supposedly done with a neck injury either

 
He's throwing and a lot too. http://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/kevins-corner/colts-coverage/andrew-luck-throwing-colts-wide-receivers-week-stanford

As far as the rest, maybe so. It seems like at some point we'll get "the real story" on what happened. I don't forget that Peyton's career was supposedly done with a neck injury either
that link doesnt necessarily say he did throw. my understanding at the time of my post was that he had yet to throw a Duke NFL football. 

Manning's surgery was way different and a different body part. actually, there was a good chance he came back, in my mind, but it was going to take some time. with Luck I fear there was an unintended complication with a nerve/s that resulted in significant weakness. pure speculation, but something that takes over a year to heal and is still so so, but didn't require additional surgery... alarm bells going off for neural injury

 
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Should be a slug-fest in the division, probably will come down to who can stay the healthiest at the key positions.

-Texans: secondary should be improved with two big FA's but it is still a question mark especially their depth but their pass-rush should be returned to full-strength with Watt and Mercilous returning. Renewed pass rush should ease the pressure on the DB's and free up Clowney who was on an island last year. O'line is still a major work in progress and will be their weak spot again. Their success will depend on if Watson is the real deal or not but even so there will still be growing pains, I see them contending for a wildcard spot.

-Jacksonville - return nearly all of their key pieces, improved their O'line, elite defense. Bortles plays well enough given the strength of the run game and the defense. The favorite to take the division a 2nd year in a row.

-Titans - the X-factor IMO, super young and inexperienced coaching staff so hard to predict, added to their good defense, added a nice compliment in FA to their running game, which Mariota will we see and can he stay healthy? This team could make serious waves or could seriously implode, but I'd bet on the former and they contend for the division title given their strength in trenches.

-Indy - a distant 4th for this year IMO but improving and the needle point upwards. If Luck comes back as studly as he was before, the deficiencies around him will be masked. I can see them having a solid .500 year or close to it and playing the spoiler for some of the other division teams taking a few W's away in their matchups.

 
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