David Johnson Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

You guys probably know the deal by now -- after a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are one of the main features on the site during the preseason. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary fell off, but we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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David Johnson, RB, Arizona

David Johnson had a historic 2016, but an unfortunate wrist injury caused him to miss most of 2017. He comes back to an offense with a new quarterback at the helm, a shaky offensive line, and lots of questions on the defensive side of the ball. Will he return to greatness in 2018, or will the circumstances of his team pull him down? Will the game scripts be good enough to keep the ground game as a factor? Will the offensive line generate enough for Johnson to create? 

Let's discuss!

Johnson may be the first Top 5 pick in FF history who...

- is coming off a season long injury and practically didn’t play the previous year.

- has a new QB, HC and OC.

That’s a lot of transition and while we know how talented he is, that’s largely what you’re banking on when you draft him.  What we do know is that ARI has him and not much else at RB.  So the volume shouldn’t be a problem.  But his 373 touches in 2016...?  Can we count on Arians-level focus on him now?  Also, his YPR since 2016 is 11...high number for an RB.  His YPC is 4.15...so his efficiency in terms of what track record he has is in the passing game.

He is going to get his, but I feel like there is quite a bit of unknown here and I wonder if he’s closer to the talents in the back half of Round 1 vs Gurley/Bell/Zeke.

Draft with confidence. If anything, they need more of him (not that much more is possible) not less. Their defense has gotten worse and, with either QB under center, will require a ball control offense.

He's gonna have a very high floor. I would temper expectations for his ceiling. He will probably be the number two target for receptions on the team He's gonna have some fresh legs.

bottom line is he is super talented and is gonna get tons of touches. Plus he can take it to the house on any play. I agree, draft with confidence.

Just look up everything that was said about him last year and add "they have a highly drafted rookie QB which represents a significant upgrade at backup QB. Rosen is a great insurance plan to protect DJ's floor."

I have done a few projections for the Cardinals so far this year, I agree there have been several changes that makes predicting how they will do uncertain.

However there are two constants in this offense that I think will remain so. Larry Fitzgerald will lead the team in targets and receptions and David Johnson is likely going to be their 2nd most utilized player in the passing game.

Another problem with David Johnson is that we do not have multiple seasons of data to draw on with him and try to triangulate those numbers into an average. So his 2016 season would be the main model to consider for what he will do in the 2018 season. I actually think his catch rate increases because Bradford is a more accurate passer than Carson Palmer (Rosen is pretty accurate too although a rookie) but Johnsons yards per reception going down. This could be just do to regression/progression towards the mean. David Johnsons career catch rate is 65% which is below the average of 73% for a RB. His yards per reception is 11.5 which is high for a RB who average 7.5 ypr.

I project David Johnson to have 280-300-320 rushing attempts (4.3 ypc) 1204-1290-1376 yards 6-8-10 TD 80-100-120 targets (73% catch rate) 58-73-88 receptions (9 ypr) 522-657-788 yards 1-2-3 TD

Floor 1726 total yards 7 TD 214 points standard 272 points PPR

Median 1947 total yards 10 TD 255 points standard 328 points PPR 

Ceiling 2164 total yards 13 TD 294 points standard 382 points PPR

He is certainly worth considering first overall or anywhere in the top 5 of drafts.

For dynasty I like Johnsons outlook for the next 3 seasons. He will be getting near 30 at that time and perhaps there will be some decline or even possible time share, but I would expect Johnson to continue to be heavily involved as a receiver even into his early 30s. His team just may not have him run the ball as much as he gets older.

Let me elaborate on my Johnson evaluation up above...

I'm someone who believes you can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it.  Johnson is a clear 1st rounder.  But if you match-up risk factors between him and say Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, or Melvin Gordon...whose situation coupled with talent level and opportunity to produce is better?

Fournette if you include the playoffs (16 games total) put up 1628/14.  They have a possible defense for the ages and a QB they don't lean on.  They also just signed the best road-grader OG on the FA market.

Kareem Hunt - 1782/11... his question marks are at QB and OC although Bieniemy likely won't be calling plays.

Melvin Gordon? The past two seasons have seen him average over 100 YFS/game with 24 total TD's.  They also just singed a top tier C and get their 2nd round OG from 2017 back from injury.

Someone pointed out above, with DJ, you have 1+ seasons of track record...not that much more than Fournette/Hunt and less than Gordon.  So when you start to evaluate circumstances beyond Johnson's control, the things I mentioned in my original post are significant determinates in his 2018 fate.

Ask yourself this.  Of the Jags, Chiefs, Chargers, Cardinals...how would you rank those teams from best-to-worst?  I'd rank ARI 4th, and I suspect most would as well.  Bad teams struggle to control game flow.  I don't want to say ARI will be a bad team...but of the four above (assume all things being equal), they have the best chance.

Ultimately, the downside I see in Johnson isn't with Johnson himself, it's with his circumstances...and with 1st rounders, I think you want to feel good about those - or as good as you can when coupled with the player.

The thing about game flow however is that if the Cardinals are losing, this just leads to more looks for Johnson in the passing game. It may actually help him.

His productivity is not so much from his rushing stats anyways, so negative game script won't affect him the way it would a RB getting most of their production from running the ball, such as Jordan Howard.

He's in a completely different scenario from 2016; new QB, new coach, new scheme. I'm not sure what to expect, but he has a relatively small sample size of 22 starts over 48 possible games. I have a lot of questions:
Is the new scheme going to work out for DJ?
Will he get the receptions, which is what made him so valuable, especially with drafting of a WR high in the last 2 drafts
Are defenses going to crowd the box to force Bradford or Rosen to beat them, especially when Bradford and Rosen thrive on short to intermediate routes? He will get his and be a very valuable RB, but I am not sure if I take him in the top 3 or 4 in my draft. 
Any rust from being off for 15 games? 

Biabreakable said:

The thing about game flow however is that if the Cardinals are losing, this just leads to more looks for Johnson in the passing game. It may actually help him.

His productivity is not so much from his rushing stats anyways, so negative game script won't affect him the way it would a RB getting most of their production from running the ball, such as Jordan Howard.

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In 2016, he played 964 snaps; almost 85% of the offensive snaps.  He had 120 targets (good for 24th in the NFL).  He had 20 TD’s (16 rushing).  Even if things go well in ARI, I could see each of those numbers falling by at least 20%...and that’s if they go well.

in 2016, ARI scored 418 points (26/game for 6th in NFL).  Averaged 367 YPG - 9th in the NFL.  It was a high-powered offense with a veteran QB having a career year.  Do we think this offense has anywhere near the firepower as that one?  Is Mike McCoy > Bruce Arians?

Their defense was 2nd overall that year.  They were helmed by one of the more respected DC’s in the game, James Bettcher.  Between the HC/DC now (Wilks/Al Holcomb)...they have a combined 1 year of NFL coordinator experience.

All I’m saying is buyer beware.  It’s easy to look at Johnson’s skillet and assume he’ll simply slide back into monster production levels. But there are some circumstances here that give me significant pause.  And at 1.04, that’s not a feeling I want.

Dr. Dan said:

but he has a relatively small sample size of 22 starts over 48 possible games.

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This is being disingenuous.  He played in 33 straight games before suffering a season-ending injury.

tangfoot said:

This is being disingenuous.  He played in 33 straight games before suffering a season-ending injury.

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I'm talking about games started. He has very limited starting time over the last 3 years. He had 5 productive games his rookie year and 1 incredible season, and a lot has changed since he last played had a great fantasy game. 

Dr. Dan said:

I'm talking about games started. He has very limited starting time over the last 3 years. He had 5 productive games his rookie year and 1 incredible season, and a lot has changed since he last played had a great fantasy game. 

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David Johnson was RB8 in standard as a rookie. He had 8 games where he was an RB2 or better. He caught a game winning 55 yard TD in his first game in the NFL. It was his only touch of the game. Week 2 he returned the opening kickoff 108 yards for a TD. He would touch the ball only 6 more times that game but would add 45 yards and a TD. The coaching staff buries him behind Chris Johnson only allowing him to touch the ball 37 times over the next 8 games. He still manages to score 4 TDs during that time period. Then, CJ gets hurt and the Cardinals have to unleash DJ. He finishes the season with 120/1, 123/0, 229/3, 127/1, 59/0. Then in 2 playoff games he has 78/0 and 128/2. He is also had 32 receptions during that time if you play PPR.

Every time DJ has been given opportunities to touch the ball, he has been creating fantasy points at a pace rarely ever seen. 

Dr. Dan said:

I'm talking about games started. He has very limited starting time over the last 3 years. He had 5 productive games his rookie year and 1 incredible season, and a lot has changed since he last played had a great fantasy game. 

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I understand that you’re talking about games started. I’m saying that you are attempting to pick and choose a narrative that fits the conclusion you have reached. 

tangfoot said:

I understand that you’re talking about games started. I’m saying that you are attempting to pick and choose a narrative that fits the conclusion you have reached. 

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I agree, it paints a certain picture. I guess I didn't mean to say what it seems I'm trying to say by those words. I'm just saying he doesnt have a long history compared to other guys. yes, his history is consistent but it's not in length. 

Dr. Dan said:

I agree, it paints a certain picture. I guess I didn't mean to say what it seems I'm trying to say by those words. I'm just saying he doesnt have a long history compared to other guys. yes, his history is consistent but it's not in length. 

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Right.  Which of the elite RBs have a long history?

Le'veon Bell.  The end.

There are questions to consider with DJ, especially in dynasty.  If one of them for you is length of service, you're getting awfully picky.

A season and a half of MVP caliber ball is more than enough to gauge his talent.  The rest is just situation.

Saquon Barkley has zero history. 

Alvin Kamara has three starts. 

Going into last year, Kareem Hunt had zero starts. 

I'm not sure what we're trying to say here. 

skinfanjon said:

Right.  Which of the elite RBs have a long history?

Le'veon Bell.  The end.

There are questions to consider with DJ, especially in dynasty.  If one of them for you is length of service, you're getting awfully picky.

A season and a half of MVP caliber ball is more than enough to gauge his talent.  The rest is just situation.

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If you want to be skeptical of the top few guys, it seems like Gurley would be the one to target. 

Ilov80s said:

If you want to be skeptical of the top few guys, it seems like Gurley would be the one to target. 

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I'll take Gurley as the guy I am least skeptical about.  Even including Bell.

Zero doubt in his opportunity and talent.  Same team coaches system.  If anything a better defense?

matuski said:

I'll take Gurley as the guy I am least skeptical about.  Even including Bell.

Zero doubt in his opportunity and talent.  Same team coaches system.  If anything a better defense?

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I don't doubt him either. I am just spitballing off of other posters who are knocking DJ for his past performance. If that is the line of thinking, Gurley has the biggest red flag.

While I am not too concerned about the short track record given his great production, my main concern is that DJ's situation has immensely changed from '15 & '16. 2015 Arizona had the #2 scoring offense in the league, 2016 Arizona had the #6 scoring offense in the league, 2017: 25th. Obviously losing DJ impacted that immensely but how much does his coming back offset the other losses they've had as a team on both sides of the ball and on the sideline?

I mentioned in the Barkley thread that it probably would come down to personal preference on DJ or SB but I imagine most will go with the hot young rookie because of the excitement of the new toy and Barkley looking like a once in a generation talent landing in an ok situation (yes the Giants were terrible last year but had a huge number of key injuries and invested heavily in their O'line this offseason in the hopes of improving it, and as bad as the Giants O'line was last year, Arizona's was worse per PFF.) DJ being out of the picture for a year takes some of the shine off as well as there will be some owners burned by his injury after spending a top pick on him in 2017.

As for DJ's situation changing: he lost his coach who heavily fed him the ball and on paper they drafted a legit #2 possession WR so I think coming anywhere close to 120 targets again is highly unlikely, lost his QB who despite his warts had a career year in '15 and a very good year in '16, now they've got a Bradford who can never stay healthy and a rookie (although I like Rosen long-term), new Coach is defensive minded with only one year of experience as a DC in the NFL, the new OC McCoy was once thought to be an offensive minded genius but has been fired twice in the last two seasons so who knows what we will see. Fitz has gobbled up a boatload of targets the last 2 years giving him great fantasy stats but his efficiency stats have been poor to mediocre, he is likely nearing the end of his on field effectiveness with another year older and you have to wonder how much his heart is in things since he considered retirement. 2nd worst o'line in the league last year behind only Houston and while they added some bodies in FA and the draft, none of their additions were marquee (Pugh was once a top Guard, but has played terrible the last 2 years in part due to injuries and was so bad, the Giants of all people let him walk) or immediate impact (3rd rounder and a late rounder in the draft) IMO. I'm going to take a wait and see approach if their new coach and new DC can turn around a defense that was studly two years ago and backslid quite a bit to mediocre last year.

That's not to say DJ won't have a good year (he is running for what will be his only big money contract after all since he entered the league at a late age) and I'd personally consider him in the middle to back half of the 1st round (probably RB 4~6 after a few WR are gone), but there are a lot of headwinds for DJ that would make me hesitate if I was picking at 1~6 and probably go with one of the other 3 RBs or with a WR instead. Most likely I won't be drafting him though because I could easily see and wouldn't fault someone taking DJ in the mix with Gurley, Zeke and Bell after that 20 TD 2016 campaign, especially if DJ doesn't look like he's missing a beat in pre-season despite the poorer cast around him.

For me it basically comes down to how healthy Sam Bradford will be. If their offensive line stinks then Bradford is going to get the ball out quickly and the players who get open early are going to get the ball. I think this fits David Johnsons wheelhouse perfectly. If Bradford gets injured then yes rookie QB play likely would lead to lesser overall output of the offense.

Sam Bradford is more accurate than Carson Palmer who likes to take deep shots down the field more frequently. Bradford has had 71% and 65% completion percentage the last two seasons, while Carson Palmer has been around his career average of 62% I see this as a plus for DJ as well because he might target Johnson more than Palmer would.

As far as the change in coaches, I am not sure what to think of Steve Wilks. He seems inexperienced. Only one season as a defensive coordinator although he did have the title of assistant head coach. He coached defensive backs for a very long time prior to this. Maybe he can improve the defense? They still have some very good players on that side of the ball.

Offensive coordinator Mike McCoy is the story of a career going backwards. Fired as the head coach of the Chargers 2016 then hired as the offensive coordinator of the Broncos last season who also went with a somewhat inexperienced defensive minded coach. I am guessing that McCoy gets more input into the offense in these scenarios given his prior experience as a head coach at the NFL level, he also adds experience there for the new head coach.

McCoy has a history of throwing the ball to the RB frequently, Danny Woodhead 106 targets 80 receptions splitting time with Melvin Gordon. 

I guess it somewhat comes down to what your opinion of Bradford is, how long he can stay healthy and how competent he can be as a starter with perhaps a questionable offensive line. I think Josh Rosen is going to be a good QB, but a rookie QB and the offense as a whole likely takes a step back, they perhaps run the ball more.

Either way I think Johnson does well. Would just prefer him with Bradford more.

Uh so he just got a gun

https://www.instagram.com/p/BlEY6zBnqAi/?hl=en

zeeshan2 said:

Uh so he just got a gun

https://www.instagram.com/p/BlEY6zBnqAi/?hl=en

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And?

I'm completely avoiding Johnson, and probably Fitz too at their ADP's. I think Bruce Arians was an elite play caller, and he deserves a ton of credit for the Cardinals offense in 2015-16. In addition to Arians being gone, and replaced by Mike McCoy who has a pretty shoddy track record when his QB hasn't been Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer is also gone, and likely the QB play will be worse regardless of who starts. I don't see the offense putting 51-48 TD's like they did in 2015-16.  

I don't think Johnson is a bad 1st round pick, but he's probably not a top-5 RB in my book, and certainly a good deal behind the Gurley/Elliott/Bell trio. 1,600 total yards and 10 TD's feels like a very fair projection to me. 

Biabreakable said:

The thing about game flow however is that if the Cardinals are losing, this just leads to more looks for Johnson in the passing game. It may actually help him.

His productivity is not so much from his rushing stats anyways, so negative game script won't affect him the way it would a RB getting most of their production from running the ball, such as Jordan Howard.

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Really good counter-point IMO, but the fact is he hasn’t proven that he can put up monster numbers on a terrible team so it’s still a risk factor for me. 

travdogg said:

Carson Palmer is also gone, and likely the QB play will be worse regardless of who starts.

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Fitz put up 16.8 PPG in the 9 games after Palmer went out for the season.  This was 5th best in the league for WRs.

cheese said:

Really good counter-point IMO, but the fact is he hasn’t proven that he can put up monster numbers on a terrible team so it’s still a risk factor for me. 

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The Cardinals were 7-8-1 in Johnson's monster season. How far is that from "terrible"?  In NFL terms, there's not a lot of difference between 5-11 and 9-7.

cheese said:

Really good counter-point IMO, but the fact is he hasn’t proven that he can put up monster numbers on a terrible team so it’s still a risk factor for me. 

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Yeah I appreciate the wet blanket posts. I didn't realize the offensive line was as bad as it may be. That is a bit of a concern I think.

If Bradford gets hurt and they start Rosen, then they may try to run more. The offensive line, stacked boxes and running inside not being a strength of DJ could cause that scenario to be a bit of a problem I think.

cheese said:

Really good counter-point IMO, but the fact is he hasn’t proven that he can put up monster numbers on a terrible team so it’s still a risk factor for me. 

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tangfoot said:

Fitz put up 16.8 PPG in the 9 games after Palmer went out for the season.  This was 5th best in the league for WRs.

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How is this relevant to the post you are responding to? 

tangfoot said:

The Cardinals were 7-8-1 in Johnson's monster season. How far is that from "terrible"?  In NFL terms, there's not a lot of difference between 5-11 and 9-7.

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Name the major roles on this offense/team/staff that are still there from 2016.  Many of these changes are flat out negatives on paper, many more at best unknowns.

matuski said:

How is this relevant to the post you are responding to? 

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I think you’re mistaken

Due to his 2 way ability plus his goal line prowess plus a complete lack of competition for touches at RB, DJ probably has the highest floor of any fantasy RB along with the highest ceiling. He's as QB-proof and game script-proof as they come.

Even compared to Le'Veon who has never scored more than 11 TDs combined in a season and DJ eclipsed that number in both of his 1st two seasons.

Stop overthinking this.

tangfoot said:

I think you’re mistaken

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I asked a question...

I have DJo as RB4, and I could be completely off here. I hate his situation—weak surrounding cast and uninspiring OC hire. Still he is gonna be a volume hog and might have enough talent to be immune to his situation.

The situation is a bit concerning, but he’s big, fast and can catch the ball as well as just about any WR in the game.

As long as he stays healthy and the Cards don’t get regularly blown out (to the point of being rested a lot late in games), he should put up some very healthy fantasy stats.

zamboni said:

The situation is a bit concerning, but he’s big, fast and can catch the ball as well as just about any WR in the game.

As long as he stays healthy and the Cards don’t get regularly blown out (to the point of being rested a lot late in games), he should put up some very healthy fantasy stats.

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That is the beauty of getting one of these rare backs who can do it all. Even if the Cards are down 30, it just means more passes to DJ. It's almost better if they are losing since receptions are more valuable. 

gianmarco said:

Due to his 2 way ability plus his goal line prowess plus a complete lack of competition for touches at RB, DJ probably has the highest floor of any fantasy RB along with the highest ceiling. He's as QB-proof and game script-proof as they come.

Even compared to Le'Veon who has never scored more than 11 TDs combined in a season and DJ eclipsed that number in both of his 1st two seasons.

Stop overthinking this.

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With this level of analysis paralysis it's a wonder some people make any decisions during their day.

I have DJ at RB5 behind Kamara.   Kamara just feels a bit safer to me.  

DJ's holdout, new coaching regime and injury history are enough to bump him behind Kamara for me but really that only matters if I'm picking #4 in most leagues since I have DJ ranked #5 overall.  That being said, I think he has the highest ceiling of any RB in ppr leagues.

Amazing how quickly a player can go from the sexy new thing to a boring tired option. I do not understand how a broken wrist is causing people to forget who DJ is. 

TripItUp said:

I have DJ at RB5 behind Kamara.   Kamara just feels a bit safer to me.  

DJ's holdout, new coaching regime and injury history are enough to bump him behind Kamara for me but really that only matters if I'm picking #4 in most leagues since I have DJ ranked #5 overall.

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What injury history? A freak accident breaking his wrist is an injury history now?

Ilov80s said:

Amazing how quickly a player can go from the sexy new thing to a boring tired option. I do not understand how a broken wrist is causing people to forget who DJ is. 

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He had a MCL sprain as well.  He takes a lot of contact as a bigger back.  

TripItUp said:

He had a MCL sprain as well.  He takes a lot of contact as a bigger back.  

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It's football. Gurley tore his knee up, Bell has multiple knee injuries, Kamara had a concussion, Cook tore his knee twice, Fournette has had several problems with his ankle. 

Ilov80s said:

It's football. Gurley tore his knee up, Bell has multiple knee injuries, Kamara had a concussion, Cook tore his knee twice, Fournette has had several problems with his ankle. 

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Sure, I didn't say his history was better or worse than the others...it's the totality of all the circumstances that makes DJ #5 for me.  The other 4 backs just feel safer to me.   

Gurley - same team, same system

Zeke - probably the least risky of the bunch, same team same system

Bell - a tad more risky, but a proven workhorse, same team, same system

Kamara - same team, same system

DJ - new coach, new players around him, new system, contract holdout, missed a lot of time to injury last year

I love DJ this year but this I read an article recently about he rarely faced stacked boxes in 2016 due to Palmer's great year and the Cardinal's going 3 WR sets so often. I suspect he is going to see considerably more DB's on the line this upcoming year. 

TripItUp said:

Sure, I didn't say his history was better or worse than the others...it's the totality of all the circumstances that makes DJ #5 for me.  The other 4 backs just feel safer to me.   

Gurley - same team, same system

Zeke - probably the least risky of the bunch, same team same system

Bell - a tad more risky, but a proven workhorse, same team, same system

Kamara - same team, same system

DJ - new coach, new players around him, new system, contract holdout, missed a lot of time to injury last year

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I hear you and I like your analysis- just thought mentioning injury with DJ is nonsense. 

Yes, Bradford is made of glass. Really...fragile...glass.

But he did set the completion percentage record in '16-'17 behind the worst NFL line ever seen using short passes just like what the Cardinals are set to do.

Wise Old Owl said:

I love DJ this year but this I read an article recently about he rarely faced stacked boxes in 2016 due to Palmer's great year and the Cardinal's going 3 WR sets so often. I suspect he is going to see considerably more DB's on the line this upcoming year. 

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I am sure. I don't think anyone expects him to repeat his 2016 season. Let's hack off 1/3 of his fantasy points from 2016 and it's still 14.5 standard ppg which would have made him RB5 last year. 

I just started my RB projections. I have him at around 1,600 total yards with 11 tds and 60 receptions for about 286 total points which is about 50 points behind the big 3 (Gurley, Bell, and Elliott). Lots of team risk built into my projections (new HC, OC, system, team performance, etc). I'm not concerned about his injuries.  Fairly high floor, but a significant gap behind the top tier imo.

Ilov80s said:

I am sure. I don't think anyone expects him to repeat his 2016 season. Let's hack off 1/3 of his fantasy points from 2016 and it's still 14.5 standard ppg which would have made him RB5 last year. 

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I am getting 13.83 ppg for RB7. Yardage bonuses included in your overall numbers? I just used FBG's numbers for standard.