4 Confusing Facts from 2017 (1 Viewer)

1. In 2017, the Oakland Raiders were led in receving yards by Jared Cook. Cook had 688 yards- 8 more than Amari Cooper. Yet in standard, Jared Cook managed to not even be a top 12 TE. How is it even possible for a TE to lead their team in receiving yards but not be a TE1 for fantasy? If anything, it seems to raise major red flags for Carr, Cooper and Crabtree. I mean they sucked last year.

Is this a sign that the passing game has a gaping hole for a top WR and could Jordy or Martavis play the alpha target role? What could that even be worth?

2. Gio Bernard was better than running back Joe Mixon last year. There are several facts supporting this: The usage for Mixon and Gio varied throughout the year. For standard, Bernard was the leading fantasy scoring RB for Cinci for 6 weeks , Mixon was the leading fantasy scoring RB for CInci for 9 weeks (I didn't track week 17 since we don't play fantasy that week). In those games as leading scorer, Bernard averaged 12.9 ppg. During the 9 games Mixon was the leader he averaged 9.5 ppg. Gio averaged 0.55 standard points per rush, Mixon averaged 0.49. Gio averaged 1.18  standard points per reception,  Mixon averaged 0.96. During the course of the season, the Bengals RBs scored 17% less fantasy points than the NFL average. During the last 5 weeks, it improved from 15.3 to 17.4- it is during those 5 weeks than Bernard recorded 4 of his games as the leading Bengals fanatsy RB. Part of the reason we saw Gio's numbers go up was his usage went up with Mixon out for injury. However, it also shows that the team was more efficient with Gio getting a larger share of the work than it was splitting the guys. Who knows how the guys will look in training camp this summer, but nothing happened last season to justify Mixon seeing his role grow. 
 

Are we really overvaluing Mixon and undervaluing Gio for the 2018 season?

3. To score points, RBs need to be on the field so we should draft RBs that don't get pulled off the field.There were 6 RBs last year to be on the field for 70% or more of their team's snaps per game. It is the most since 2013. These are typically  the true foundational backs that fantasy players can be comfortable with in all game scripts and situations. There were the obvious ones: Bell, Gurley, Gordon and Zeke. The other 2 might not have been so predictable:  Hyde and McCaffrey. Looking back since 2013, the RBs with the highest % also tend to be RB1s for fantasy. Players like Bell, Gordon, McCoy, Dallas RBs come up more than once on the lists. McCaffrey and Hyde actually were pretty big outliers. Hyde was RB14 and CMc was RB21. 

What does this mean for CMc and McKinnon? Did CMc and the SF RB get unlucky? Should they be in for some positive movement towards the mean production from an RB on the field so often or is this in some way indicative of the limitations of the player/role? 

4. Marvin Jones had 1100 yards and 9 TDs. Now I realzie that doesn't seem confusing, but when you combine it with the fact he has a standard ADP of WR23, it is very confusing. How is a top 5 WR falling into nearly WR3 territory without an injury, change in role, a new QB or new team? Last year Hilton was coming off a WR5 season and entering the draft with huge questions about his QB and he was taken as WR12. Also confusing is that Jones did this on just 61 receptions. You have to go back to 2010 to find the last time a receiver had a top 5 season with less than 61 receptions. 

Is this a golden buying opportunity on a market that is overlooking the best RZ option and a premier deepthreat on a high powered passing offense? Or have fantasy drafters sniffed out a ridiculous outlier season?

For Bernard, he was typically used on 3rd downs (3rd and long) to which could just explain his higher stats per carry.

I think he's severely underused. He could be featured like McCoy in Buffalo.

Stuart Ullman said:

For Bernard, he was typically used on 3rd downs (3rd and long) to which could just explain his higher stats per carry.

I think he's severely underused. He could be featured like McCoy in Buffalo.

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Very fair point and when dealing what really are small sample sizes, a couple long runs could skew the numbers. My only counter to that was the 4 game stretch where Mixon was hurt in the 2nd quarter against the Steelers and then didn't play against the Lions, Vikings, Bears was just as productive as any stretch for Mixon that year. I am just not sure now about where these guys are getting drafted. 

Ilov80s said:

Is this a sign that the passing game has a gaping hole for a top WR and could Jordy or Martavis play the alpha target role? What could that even be worth?

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For sure no debating that Cooper and Crabtree were not productive last year.  I still think Martavis is more likely than not to get suspended, not saying he is but still think a chance remains and if I was betting on it today I'd take the suspension side. I want to be wrong on this but what I want does not matter. Gruden has a strong history of coercing highly productive seasons out of older WR's.  If Martavis plays based on ADP I would say both Martavis and Jordy are better draft values then Cooper, and while it's possible one could be the Alpha I would still strongly favor Cooper being the lead WR. Yes I think there is a lot of value, Grudens top WR is almost always a 1K plus receiver . The production of the offense last year is why JDR is out of the job.  Understand people don't trust Gruden based on how long he's been away and some off-season moves but when it comes to the offensive side of the ball my trust in him is immense and I think the Raiders offense as whole will look like totally different and a lot of draft value to be found in Oakland.

Ilov80s said:

Are we really overvaluing Mixon and undervaluing Gio for the 2018 season?

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I think they are both properly valued.

The OL sucked and Gio is a more elusive runner then Mixon. Also rookies, even RB's, can take a little time to get up to speed and the sporadic 3 man rotation before Hill went down did not help. As an example look at Kamara last year. AP was not getting much use but when they finally got rid of him both Ingram and Kamara improved.  Bad rotation, bad OL, bad offense all around was just a rough mix.  I thought Mixon was improving a great deal last year and was really running strong the latter part of the season and had he not suffered some injuries I think the consensus would be right now that he already turned the corner. Also like that he's leaned up this year.

I like Gio, the Bengals love him. He'll continue to limit Mixon's upside, prohibit Mixon from being a Bell/DJ in his usage as a receiver which is a shame because his skill set is made for it. But they view Mixon as their Elliot type of back, that's a direct quote from a Bengals beat writer BTW made a few weeks ago.

Ilov80s said:

What does this mean for CMc and McKinnon? Did CMc and the SF RB get unlucky? Should they be in for some positive movement towards the mean production from an RB on the field so often or is this in someway indicative of the limitations of the player/role?

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 I'd view it as fantastic news for McKinnon but since CAR has a new OC and CJA is at least a slight updgrade over Stewart IMO I don't think it means much to McCaffrey.

Ilov80s said:

Is this a golden buying opportunity on a market that is overlooking the best RZ option and a premier deepthreat on a high powered passing offense? Or have fantasy drafters sniffed out a ridiculous outlier season?

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I don't play in standard but yes I think it's an outlier season in general but I also anticipate a lot of growth from Golladay who can do a lot of things that Marvin can and if this team can actually get the running game going even less passing. Now the Lions are already a good play action team even without a good running game and a strong running game could make play action on this team deadly and set up Marvin for a lot of big plays and make his 2017 season not much of an outlier at all. But for what I got to pay for him in PPR leagues, I want more consistency and targets.

Great post/points.

I do think guys like Nelson and Bryant (if he stays on the field and doesn't get suspended) are being undervalued. Cooper has all-world talent but until he actually shows it, I think there is room for other guys to be super-productive. We've already seen it the last few years with Crabtree. I will take a flier on Bryant in the last round of drafts every day over reaching for Cooper this year at or before ADP as a result.

Gio is another guy I'm targeting for the exact production reasons you point out. Even if Mixon progresses from last year (and my guess is he is what he is), Gio has a role and will be used in the offense. In a PPR like my league, Gio is a solid every week flex.

Again, PPR makes McCaffery more valuable, but even with the hype around McKinnon, would rather take a guy with a proven role than the more unknown perfromance of McKinnon on a new team -- I just don't think he has the same skills/pedigree as Hyde. We'll see, willing to be proven wrong.

Keep quiet about Jones -- to your point he's criminally undervalued right now and see him routinely slip in drafts. Will gladly have a WR2 with solid WR1 upside at WR3 prices.

1.  I think OAK just completely derailed last year.  As bad as Cooper was last year, Bryant was worse.  A change of scenery is what Bryant needed, but Gruden has always fed his #1 WR.  I suspect Cooper is still that guy - he has the relationship with Carr.  I also think Carr wants to help Cooper get that next contract.  And while I like their OL, unsure how effective a Lynch/Martin backfield will be.

2. Feels like CIN has never bought into Gio as a feature back.  Don't know why - I think he's pretty good.  But they've brought in both Hill and Mixon since drafting Gio.  Mixon is going to have to fail before Gio gets feature duties or a shot at them.  And I don't think we'll have a clear picture on that until October (if Mixon starts slow).  May be worthy of a handcuff situation.

3.  With Hyde/McKinnon, I think usage stats can get thrown out the window.  Hyde's a big RB who expanded his skillset to be more adept in the passing game.  Coupled with a rookie UDFA as his back-up (Brieda) and thus the usage on Hyde.  CMC though is one that has quite a bit of variance.  He logged but 117 carries and I think part of that was because during the 1st half of the season, he averaged 2.4 YPC.  He wasn't being used in the run game in particular.  He woke up though in the seasons second half and doubled his YPC (almost) to 4.7.  And because of his skillset, he can motion out of the backfield, line up in the slot (or out wide)...so his snap count has more to do with formation and match-up problems he can cause.

If he can get his carries up to 150-160 range while maintaining a 4.4-4.6 YPC, he's going to be a really solid FF investment.

4.  I've pointed this out as well.  I love Jones at his ADP, but I suspect that will change during draft season as more people start to ask the question you just did.

Stuart Ullman said:

For Bernard, he was typically used on 3rd downs (3rd and long) to which could just explain his higher stats per carry.

I think he's severely underused. He could be featured like McCoy in Buffalo.

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I thought this too however in looking at the splits for 2017 its not really true.

15% of his rushing attempts were on 3rd or 4th down in 2017 and he averaged 3.56 ypc on these plays.

Where Bernard shined was on 1st and 10 situations where he averaged 5 ypc.

Most of Bernards production happened in the last 5 games of the season (Mixon missed two of these games) where he had 71 rushing attempts (68% of his total for the season) where he averaged 4.7 ypc 

Bernard got stuffed against the Vikings during this 5 game stretch but otherwise averaged more than 5 ypc against the Steelers, Chicago, Detroit and Baltimore.

I totally agree he hasn't been used as much as I think his productivity warrants, his ypc was not a product of him getting a lot of use on 3rd downs however. Perhaps in previous seasons, but not in 2017.

Ilov80s said:

4. You have to go back to 2010 to find the last time a receiver had a top 5 season with less than 61 receptions. 

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Think you may have partially answered your own question here.  Not saying you're wrong that he's being drafted too low, but the reason is most likely that people expect his 2017 stats to regress to the mean.  

@TheDirtyWord I don’t think Hyde really added any new aspect to his game. He just got a lot of targets. He averaged 5.9 ypc which was atrocious- Wayne Gallman territory. Hyde averaged almost a drop a game most of any RB. He was 5th in targets and 17th in receiving yards. 

I don’t know how much of that was the offense being bad or Hyde not being able to do anything with the targets.

Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Think you may have partially answered your own question here.  Not saying you're wrong that he's being drafted too low, but the reason is most likely that people expect his 2017 stats to regress to the mean.  

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I am not even saying he being drafted too low- just pointing out that his stat line is very confusing for 2 reasons: he was a top 5 WR last year with no significant changes to health, offense, etc. and how in the world did he end up as a top 5 WR (or even top 10 fof that matter) with so few receptions. 

Ilov80s said:

@TheDirtyWord I don’t think Hyde really added any new aspect to his game. He just got a lot of targets. He averaged 5.9 ypc which was atrocious- Wayne Gallman territory. Hyde averaged almost a drop a game most of any RB. He was 5th in targets and 17th in receiving yards. 

I don’t know how much of that was the offense being bad or Hyde not being able to do anything with the targets.

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Sometimes being the only option is enough.  Telling though that on a 59/350 receiving line, only 10/55 was done with Jimmy G.

I've been beating the Jones drum for the last couple years and it finally came to fruition last year. That said, I fully expect Golladay to eat into his looks. I'm staying away this year. I think the Lions plays are Stafford and Johnson.

A) Raiders were a #### show with injuries at QB and WR.  Also, Amari is not good.

B) Gio is good, but Mixon will prove to be better...Mixon was the youngest back in the league last year if not mistaken.  The Gio vs. Mixon stat means very little to me

C) SF is a committee at best this year, McKinnon is greatly overvalued...Breida is the value play.  McCaffrey priced about right IN PPRs

D) Jones is value city, even better in best ball leagues with his TD rate.  Just drafted Jones in my ffpc league at WR#28 6.09...which is absurd for that format.

Ilov80s said:

3. To score points, RBs need to be on the field so we should draft RBs that don't get pulled off the field.There were 6 RBs last year to be on the field for 70% or more of their team's snaps per game. It is the most since 2013. These are typically  the true foundational backs that fantasy players can be comfortable with in all game scripts and situations. There were the obvious ones: Bell, Gurley, Gordon and Zeke. The other 2 might not have been so predictable:  Hyde and McCaffrey. Looking back since 2013, the RBs with the highest % also tend to be RB1s for fantasy. Players like Bell, Gordon, McCoy, Dallas RBs come up more than once on the lists. McCaffrey and Hyde actually were pretty big outliers. Hyde was RB14 and CMc was RB21. 

What does this mean for CMc and McKinnon? Did CMc and the SF RB get unlucky? Should they be in for some positive movement towards the mean production from an RB on the field so often or is this in someway indicative of the limitations of the player/role? 

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How did you get this data for Zeke since he missed time? I'm guessing Hunt would've made the cut if he'd played in week 17 (only 5 snaps).  Lamar Miller was shockingly close at 69%. I'm guessing Dalvin was above 70% in the 3.5 games he played. 

FF Ninja said:

How did you get this data for Zeke since he missed time? I'm guessing Hunt would've made the cut if he'd played in week 17 (only 5 snaps).  Lamar Miller was shockingly close at 69%. I'm guessing Dalvin was above 70% in the 3.5 games he played. 

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Fantasy Pros is where I got the data from. They are average % so it is based on games played. Dalvin was at 65%. If you remove Hunt's week 17, he was at 69.4. Oviously 70 is an arbitrary cutoff. I am not making any bold claims, just trying to generate conversartion. 

Interesting not about Kamara is that he averaged 45% and was only above 60% one time. He was under 50% 9 times. 

Ilov80s said:

Fantasy Pros is where I got the data from. They are average % so it is based on games played. Dalvin was at 65%. If you remove Hunt's week 17, he was at 69.4. Oviously 70 is an arbitrary cutoff. I am not making any bold claims, just trying to generate conversartion. 

Interesting not about Kamara is that he averaged 45% and was only above 60% one time. He was under 50% 9 times. 

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It's good conversation. Was just curious where you got the data. I sometimes use footballoutsiders for snap counts, but there's no easy way to search for a range of games on there.

FF Ninja said:

It's good conversation. Was just curious where you got the data. I sometimes use footballoutsiders for snap counts, but there's no easy way to search for a range of games on there.

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The Fantasy Pros Snap Data has an interface that is a lot easier to use IMO. c

Carlos Hyde had 3.98 yards per target, one of only two RBs (min 20 targets) below 4 YPT - the other was Jordan Howard. Yet Hyde was the 5th most targeted RB in the NFL, behind only McCaffrey, Bell, Kamara, and Duke Johnson.

Average is 6.15 YPT (combining the receiving stats of all RBs with 60+ rushing attempts).

Breida had 5.00 YPT, which is better than Hyde but not good. CHI's receiving back, Tarik Cohen, similarly had 4.97 YPT. So maybe some of the low YPT is on the system & the quarterback rather than the RB.

ZWK said:

Carlos Hyde had 3.98 yards per target, one of only two RBs (min 20 targets) below 4 YPT - the other was Jordan Howard. Yet Hyde was the 5th most targeted RB in the NFL, behind only McCaffrey, Bell, Kamara, and Duke Johnson.

Average is 6.15 YPT (combining the receiving stats of all RBs with 60+ rushing attempts).

Breida had 5.00 YPT, which is better than Hyde but not good. CHI's receiving back, Tarik Cohen, similarly had 4.97 YPT. So maybe some of the low YPT is on the system & the quarterback rather than the RB.

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It certainly makes sense. A lack of outside weapons and a QB who can get the ball downfield would allow defenses to play closer to the LOS and eliminate a lot of the space that RBs need to pick up YAC. 

TripItUp said:

A) Raiders were a #### show with injuries at QB and WR.  Also, Amari is not good.

B) Gio is good, but Mixon will prove to be better...Mixon was the youngest back in the league last year if not mistaken.  The Gio vs. Mixon stat means very little to me

C) SF is a committee at best this year, McKinnon is greatly overvalued...Breida is the value play.  McCaffrey priced about right IN PPRs

D) Jones is value city, even better in best ball leagues with his TD rate.  Just drafted Jones in my ffpc league at WR#28 6.09...which is absurd for that format.

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He may not be as good as he’s being drafted (debatable) but to say this as a stand-alone comment is nonsense. 

Cjw_55106 said:

He may not be as good as he’s being drafted (debatable) but to say this as a stand-alone comment is nonsense. 

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Is calling skmebody’s opinion “nonsense” really the way you want to respond to opinions you don’t agree with?

TripItUp said:

Is calling skmebody’s opinion “nonsense” really the way you want to respond to opinions you don’t agree with?

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You did state it as a fact, not an opinion.

I definitely disagree with your opinion and I think your statement of fact is of the alternative variety.

Chaka said:

You did state it as a fact, not an opinion.

I definitely disagree with your opinion and I think your statement of fact is of the alternative variety.

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To clarify it was an opinion, bolstered by a series of statistics such as DVOA and catch %  etc. etc.

TripItUp said:

To clarify it was an opinion, bolstered by a series of statistics such as DVOA and catch %  etc. etc.

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I know, more messing with you than anything. 

But your opinion is wrong and that's a fact.

Chaka said:

I know more messing with you than anything. 

But your opinion is wrong and that's a fact.

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TripItUp said:

Is calling skmebody’s opinion “nonsense” really the way you want to respond to opinions you don’t agree with?

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Fair point. That said, you certainly didn’t attempt to back it up in any way. Stats can be twisted many ways. If you think he’s no good, that’s fine. I just expect those with opinions contrary to the mainstream, to provide more insight to support their thoughts. 

Cjw_55106 said:

Fair point. That said, you certainly didn’t attempt to back it up in any way. Stats can be twisted many ways. If you think he’s no good, that’s fine. I just expect those with opinions contrary to the mainstream, to provide more insight to support their thoughts. 

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Sure, I should've added "see my comments in the Amari Cooper threads"....didn't want to turn this into another Amari Cooper thread, obviously one of the hotter topics this summer.

Stuart Ullman said:

For Bernard, he was typically used on 3rd downs (3rd and long) to which could just explain his higher stats per carry.

I think he's severely underused. He could be featured like McCoy in Buffalo.

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I actually just used this arguement to support what I think is going to be a better season coming for Mixon. While debating, someone showed me a chart depicting the runs for Mixon and gio over 5 yards to go on third down. Gio had 6 attempts for 38 yard and 1 td and Mixon was 3 attempts for 10 0td. It was a rotoviz website he was using. I'm not 100 percent sure but it seemed legit. 

bmsarvis said:

I actually just used this arguement to support what I think is going to be a better season coming for Mixon. While debating, someone showed me a chart depicting the runs for Mixon and gio over 5 yards on third down. Gio had 6 attempts for 38 yard and 1 td and Mixon was 3 attempts for 10 0td. It was a rotoviz website he was using. I'm not 100 percent sure but it seemed legit. 

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That is such a small sample size though that I am not sure it really has any meaning. Although, TBH, we can say that about most yearly fantasy stats. Gio had a much better YPC but it's not likely statistically meaningful. My bigger point of confusion (which I didn't clearly articulate) was how we can have 2 RBs who at the very least performed relatively the same and yet one player is being drafted around 27 overall and the other is going at 144. It doesn't make much sense on the face of it. 

Shiny new toy syndrome

bmsarvis said:

Shiny new toy syndrome

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I remember when Gio was the shiny new toy all set to take over from BJGE and then when Hill was the shiny new toy ready to take over from Gio.

Ilov80s said:

That is such a small sample size though that I am not sure it really has any meaning. 

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Yeah I think that was kind of his point.  The narrative that Gio had a higher YPC because he ran a bunch on 3rd and long doesn't really hold any weight when he only had 3 more carries than Mixon on 3rd and long, and his YPC was much better not only on those carries but with those carries removed as well.

Bernard's YPC was still 0.7ypc better than Mixon's even with all 3rd and long carries removed.  Whether that is important to each individual is a personal thing, but it certainly doesn't mesh with the narrative that people falsely developed for Mixon heading into the league, which was that he was an otherwise perfect RB prospect whose only concerns were his off the field issues.

When it comes to figuring out this season I personally would throw out any facts, confusing or otherwise, relating to the Raiders last season.

TheDirtyWord said:

1.  I think OAK just completely derailed last year.  As bad as Cooper was last year, Bryant was worse.  A change of scenery is what Bryant needed, but Gruden has always fed his #1 WR.  I suspect Cooper is still that guy - he has the relationship with Carr.  I also think Carr wants to help Cooper get that next contract. 

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We'll see about that if Cooper continues to drop passes at the same clip as last year. 

Ilov80s said:

I remember when Gio was the shiny new toy all set to take over from BJGE and then when Hill was the shiny new toy ready to take over from Gio.

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Me too I was allllll in on hill too... 

Marvin is 

I love Marvin Jones (that 10 TD season in Cincinnati helped me a ton) but he is the very definition of boom/bust. He seems to be getting more consistent, and I hope that's a trend but, so far, he'll kill you for nine-ten games and win you three-five weeks almost single handedly with very little middle ground. 

Last season was a little more consistent bit he still virtually disappeared for the first five weeks of 2017. Sorry but 14 catches for 174 yards and two TDs over five consecutive games doesn't cut it. Many people were benching him during weeks 6-8 because they lost faith, then you come back for week 9 and BAM! 1 for 22 and right back to the bench. 

He finished strong enough but he has always been a week-over-week nightmare roster decision.

Chaka said:

He finished strong enough but he has always been a week-over-week nightmare roster decision.

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true, like him much more in best balls

You forgot

Chaka said:

I love Marvin Jones (that 10 TD season in Cincinnati helped me a ton) but he is the very definition of boom/bust. He seems to be getting more consistent, and I hope that's a trend but, so far, he'll kill you for nine-ten games and win you three-five weeks almost single handedly with very little middle ground. 

Last season was a little more consistent bit he still virtually disappeared for the first five weeks of 2017. Sorry but 14 catches for 174 yards and two TDs over five consecutive games doesn't cut it. Many people were benching him during weeks 6-8 because they lost faith, then you come back for week 9 and BAM! 1 for 22 and right back to the bench. 

He finished strong enough but he has always been a week-over-week nightmare roster decision.

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Here is some context for Marvin in standard. A top 24 WR averaged about 8 ppg. Marvin was at 8 or better 9 of 16 weeks. He did have 7 weeks where he was below a WR3 though. So he had his ups and downs but I don't think is too uncommon for the WR position. 

Julio- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Keenan- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Tyreek- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Given what the WR position looked like last year, unless you had AB or Nuk, this is just the kind of production that top WRs provided owners. 

Ilov80s said:

Here is some context for Marvin in standard. A top 24 WR averaged about 8 ppg. Marvin was at 8 or better 9 of 16 weeks. He did have 7 weeks where he was below a WR3 though. So he had his ups and downs but I don't think is too uncommon for the WR position. 

Julio- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Keenan- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Tyreek- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Given what the WR position looked like last year, unless you had AB or Nuk, this is just the kind of production that top WRs provided owners. 

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I think we all agree that Julio had a down year overall, even though I would argue he has been somewhat overrated for his career (mostly from a TD perspective).

Again my point was how Marvin was essentially persona non grata for the first five weeks of the season.  Something like that impacts how people allocate him in starting lineups RoS. Particularly with his history of long stretches of relatively little production.

Throw in the fact that Kenny Golloday (or whatever) is getting a lot of pre camp love and I think it is understandable that people are bearish on Jones.  I agree that people are too bearish on him but there is a reason for the perception about him.

That and he is a better play in standard rather than PPR where guys like Julio and Keenan Allen can make up for a lack of TD production.

Chaka said:

I think we all agree that Julio had a down year overall, even though I would argue he has been somewhat overrated for his career (mostly from a TD perspective).

Again my point was how Marvin was essentially persona non grata for the first five weeks of the season.  Something like that impacts how people allocate him in starting lineups RoS. Particularly with his history of long stretches of relatively little production.

Throw in the fact that Kenny Golloday (or whatever) is getting a lot of pre camp love and I think it is understandable that people are bearish on Jones.  I agree that people are too bearish on him but there is a reason for the perception about him.

That and he is a better play in standard rather than PPR where guys like Julio and Keenan Allen can make up for a lack of TD production.

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I definitely agree Marvin is signficantly better in standard. Julio did have a down year last year but he was still a top 6 WR for standard at the end.Part of all of this is just how bad WRs were last year.   People feel like Keenan had a great year and he is being drafted higher than ever. Keenan had a really bad stretch in the middle of the season where from weeks 5-10 where he scored 0 TDs and never exceeded 67 yards in a game. Marvin scored TDs in his first 2 games so it wasn't totally miserable in standard. I think the way good and bad games fall in a season is pretty random and I don't think Marvin starting slow last year is any indication of how he will start this season. Or the fact that Keenan had 5 bad games in a row in the middle means anything about what the middle of next season will look like for Keenan. I totally get what you are saying about the problems caused when a player clusters a bunch of bad games in a row at the start of a year. It causes him to get benched or dropped and the owner misses the good weeks, it hurts their trade value for the rest of the year, etc. However, a false flag start of the year can be just as dangerous. 

Ilov80s said:

I definitely agree Marvin is signficantly better in standard. Julio did have a down year last year but he was still a top 6 WR for standard at the end.Part of all of this is just how bad WRs were last year.   People feel like Keenan had a great year and he is being drafted higher than ever. Keenan had a really bad stretch in the middle of the season where from weeks 5-10 where he scored 0 TDs and never exceeded 67 yards in a game. Marvin scored TDs in his first 2 games so it wasn't totally miserable in standard. I think the way good and bad games fall in a season is pretty random and I don't think Marvin starting slow last year is any indication of how he will start this season. Or the fact that Keenan had 5 bad games in a row in the middle means anything about what the middle of next season will look like for Keenan. I totally get what you are saying about the problems caused when a player clusters a bunch of bad games in a row at the start of a year. It causes him to get benched or dropped and the owner misses the good weeks, it hurts their trade value for the rest of the year, etc. However, a false flag start of the year can be just as dangerous. 

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Mind you, with Jones it's not just how he started 2017, it's also how he ended 2016. Nine straight games without a TD with, arguably two solid games (4-94 in week 7 and 5-76 in week 15) but he was pretty much entirely useless for almost a full season of games.

He's more of a boom/bust guy than most and the perception is that he has been that way for most of his career.

Ilov80s said:

Here is some context for Marvin in standard. A top 24 WR averaged about 8 ppg. Marvin was at 8 or better 9 of 16 weeks. He did have 7 weeks where he was below a WR3 though. So he had his ups and downs but I don't think is too uncommon for the WR position. 

Julio- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Keenan- WR2 or better in 7 weeks

Tyreek- WR2 or better in 7 weeks 

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Uncommon? Far from it.

It's Trivia Time! 

A grand total of eight WRs who played at least 14 games last year finished as at least a WR2 in full-PPR - that is, WR24 or better in weekly scoring - in more than half of them. As you said, Nuk and AB were two of them. It shouldn't surprise anyone that Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas were two of the others. But who were the last 4?

Mr. Irrelevant said:

Uncommon? Far from it.

It's Trivia Time! 

A grand total of eight WRs who played at least 14 games last year finished as at least a WR2 in full-PPR - that is, WR24 or better in weekly scoring - in more than half of them. As you said, Nuk and AB were two of them. It shouldn't surprise anyone that Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas were two of the others. But who were the last 4?

Spoiler

Davante Adams (okay, makes sense); Tyreek Hill (may not surprise you, but it did me); Marvin' Jones teammate, Golden Tate, and ...

... Mike Evans (8 top-24 finishes in 15 games, despite only finishing WR17 overall).

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Interesting. Would likely look different in standard.

Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Great post/points.

I do think guys like Nelson and Bryant (if he stays on the field and doesn't get suspended) are being undervalued. Cooper has all-world talent but until he actually shows it, I think there is room for other guys to be super-productive. We've already seen it the last few years with Crabtree. I will take a flier on Bryant in the last round of drafts every day over reaching for Cooper this year at or before ADP as a result.

Gio is another guy I'm targeting for the exact production reasons you point out. Even if Mixon progresses from last year (and my guess is he is what he is), Gio has a role and will be used in the offense. In a PPR like my league, Gio is a solid every week flex.

Again, PPR makes McCaffery more valuable, but even with the hype around McKinnon, would rather take a guy with a proven role than the more unknown perfromance of McKinnon on a new team -- I just don't think he has the same skills/pedigree as Hyde. We'll see, willing to be proven wrong.

Keep quiet about Jones -- to your point he's criminally undervalued right now and see him routinely slip in drafts. Will gladly have a WR2 with solid WR1 upside at WR3 prices.

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I think quite a few people are concerned about Kenny Golloday's impact on Marvin's targets.  In the 11 games where Golloday played, Marv had 5.27.12.49 ppr/pts targets - in the 6 games Golloday was out ...Marv had 9.8 targets/17.54 ppr/pts.

Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Great post/points.

I do think guys like Nelson and Bryant (if he stays on the field and doesn't get suspended) are being undervalued. Cooper has all-world talent but until he actually shows it, I think there is room for other guys to be super-productive. We've already seen it the last few years with Crabtree. I will take a flier on Bryant in the last round of drafts every day over reaching for Cooper this year at or before ADP as a result.

Gio is another guy I'm targeting for the exact production reasons you point out. Even if Mixon progresses from last year (and my guess is he is what he is), Gio has a role and will be used in the offense. In a PPR like my league, Gio is a solid every week flex.

Again, PPR makes McCaffery more valuable, but even with the hype around McKinnon, would rather take a guy with a proven role than the more unknown perfromance of McKinnon on a new team -- I just don't think he has the same skills/pedigree as Hyde. We'll see, willing to be proven wrong.

Keep quiet about Jones -- to your point he's criminally undervalued right now and see him routinely slip in drafts. Will gladly have a WR2 with solid WR1 upside at WR3 prices.

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I think quite a few people are concerned about Kenny Golloday's impact on Marvin's targets.  In the 11 games where Golloday played, Marv had 5.27.12.49 ppr/pts targets - in the 6 games Golloday was out ...Marv had 9.8 targets/17.54 ppr/pts.

Binky The Doormat said:

I think quite a few people are concerned about Kenny Golloday's impact on Marvin's targets.  In the 11 games where Golloday played, Marv had 5.27.12.49 ppr/pts targets - in the 6 games Golloday was out ...Marv had 9.8 targets/17.54 ppr/pts.

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People are making too much of that stat. Golladay missed games 4-8, so he was back for the second half of the season. Marvin's targets did slip in the last 8 games (62 vs. 45) but with those 45 targets, he put up 28/586/4. That's 56/1172/8 over 16 games. During weeks 4-8, Stafford averaged 39 PA vs. 33 the rest of the season. They also lost 3 of those 5 games, so they were playing from behind. Those two factors probably had more to do with Marvin's target surge during that time period than Golladay's absence.