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TE 2018 -- wait or pounce? (1 Viewer)

Stompin' Tom Connors

Stompin' Tom Connors

Footballguy
My usual strategy is that unless there is clear value relative to ADP, I usually wait on TEs to grab quality starting value at RB/WR as outside of the top 3-5 TEs, there is usually value to be found much later. A zero-TE strategy, if you will. 

This year, however, given the continued prevalence of 2 TE sets, a lot of team's having potential TEBCs, and what I see as significant drop-off after the Top 5, I am not sure that forgoing TEs in the first 4 rounds is a tradeoff for the point differential these Top 5 TEs provide relative to other starting TEs.

The Top 5 I see (and believe this is consensus) are: Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, and Olsen as locks, with Graham rounding it out given his talent and opportunity on a high volume offense. ADPs for these guys generally lie around 50-60 overall -- I'm in a 14 team league, but even in a more standard 12 teamer, these guys will likely all be gone by 5th round. 

Beyond the Top 5, there seems to me to be more questions than usual.

I think guys like Engram and Walker are the primary targets, given opportunity and their performance last year. While Mariota needs to show consistency, I think Walker is safer -- with Saquon now on the Giants and some quality WRs, I think their run/pass balance shifts a little and they will look to use Barkley as an outlet as well, meaning less targets for Engram.

Kyle Rudolph is also spoken of in this tier, but having owned him last year (and in previous years) and not being a huge believer in Cousins (talented and unquestionably productive but not special IMHO and on a new team that brings some adjustments), and with Cook being healthy and having 2 fantastic WRs and some quality depth behind them, I am not sure that Rudolph's TD total (the source of his value last year) will be the same this year.  

So I am worried about needing to take these guys a little earlier than their ADP to secure production. 

Why? Because after those guys, I have huge question marks:

  • Jordan Reed: super talented, but no way am I going to bank on his health. 
  • Jack Doyle: Very productive in past, even when Fleener was splitting reps, but I think Ebron is super talented and could spell a sizeable downtick in Doyle's production, making both unsteady selections as your TE1
  • David Njoku: Has talent and opportunity, but CLE's revamped offense, including a pretty impressive group of WRs, makes me believe targets/opportunity will also decrease this year compared to last
  • Trey Burton: Gets talked up a lot but weren't we hearing the same praise heaped on Shaheen last year, who was pretty effective? I think the heat around Burton may be more manufactured than real and may disappoint relative to ADP
  • O.J. Howard: Also being talked up but Brate has been solid and is still on the scene and limits upside (I can see them both being used if Brate continues to be healthy and productive) - like in IND, the availability of two talented TEs limits both guys' upside -- I can easily see production evenly split between them this year, with not enough for both to really be competitive at the fantasy position.
  • Cameron Brate (see Howard above)
  • George Kittle: Garoppolo's buzz is off the charts and Kittle's as a result. Really promising 2017 makes him a target for me in later rounds, but I think he's being targeted by everyone, meaning you would potentially need to pounce a little before his ADP to secure him.
  • Eric Ebron (see Doyle above)
Beyond that I don't see anyone I would reliably call a TE1. 

My strategy is going to still be a wait and see, targeting guys like Kittle or Njoku, but seems like, depending on how the draft falls to me, I may need to plan to be a little earlier on both these guys, or secure a TOp 5 TE way earlier than I'd like (and also potentially ahead of ADP) to get meaningful production at this position this year. I think having a few points differential at the TE position really helps my squad pull out games, whereas in the past you could potentially see less of a spread between guys outside the top 2-3 and the rest in the Top 15.

I don't like it, but that's what I'm seeing right now. Thoughts on these TEs and how you are attacking TE strategy this year?

 
I think in past seasons there have been only two or three top TE to consider and their production was much greater than the other TE options, therefore from a VBD perspective, it made sense to draft these guys in round 3 or round 4 because of the advantage they are giving you.

I don't really see it that way going into the 2018 as the top 5 that you mention, all do have some question marks surrounding them as well.

There have been rumors about Gronkowski retiring, also think I heard some talk of the Patriots shopping him in trades to other teams.

Travis Kelce will play with a new QB.

Zach Ertz may have some opportunities diluted if Goedert splits with him.

Greg Olsen may be back to being Cam Newtons favorite target, or maybe he won't. Some uncertainty about how long he will play as well.

Jimmy Graham new team and unknown how often he will be used by Rodgers.

Now I do not consider any of these concerns to be serious, and it would not cause me to drop these players from consideration at the top of the TE heap. Just that there are some things that could cause them to not be as good as they have been recently.

Personally I think there is too much quality depth at the position for me to feel the need to reach on one early and I will wait until a nexus of value occurs before taking one. So after the top RB and WR pool has been depleted is where I will look to take a shot with Engram, Njoku, Howard and look to back that player up with another value pick such as Kittle later on in the draft.

 
I hate going te early but it's been slim pickens in the mfl10s I've done. The top two look as good as any year but after that it gets ugly in a hurry. Even still I hate taking a te when I could grab another rb early. I really haven't found any guys I like late and agree with most of your take.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
  • Trey Burton: Gets talked up a lot but weren't we hearing the same praise heaped on Shaheen last year, who was pretty effective? I think the heat around Burton may be more manufactured than real and may disappoint relative to ADP
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Last year was a completely different coaching staff with a totally different philosophy.  I don't think Shaheen is any way comparable when evaluating what Burton will do.  They paid Burton a lot of money and the new staff brought him in specifically to fill a role.  I don't know if Burton turns into Kelce in this offense but if he even gets 75% of that he is worth taking a chance. 

 
Depends on the league. I've found pretty good value in leagues which flex a TE, some up to 3. Now you might not want to go into the draft with the plan to start 3 TE, but when the WR pickings slim and you can still find very good young TEs available, the option has merit. 

In those leagues, especially with enhanced TE PPR, when you can get gronk as the 46th player, Howard as the 95th, Rudolph as the 103rd, Kittle 132nd, etc. I'm jumping on those values.

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Kyle Rudolph is also spoken of in this tier, but having owned him last year (and in previous years) and not being a huge believer in Cousins (talented and unquestionably productive but not special IMHO and on a new team that brings some adjustments), and with Cook being healthy and having 2 fantastic WRs and some quality depth behind them, I am not sure that Rudolph's TD total (the source of his value last year) will be the same this year.  
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Cousins likes throwing to his TE and the Vikings brought in a new OC to help tailor the offense to the strengths.  I really don't see Rudolph losing his red zone role and that is where the TD's will come from.  Cousins used Reed a lot in that area and Rudolph should see the same.  He is a huge target down there.  The Vikes don't really have anybody else that fits that mold for the red zone. 

 
Put me in the pounce category. It's fun to chase the points in some positions, but for me TE is not one of those. Yes they can get injured, but the pool of serviceable replacement RBs vs. TEs usually has me in the group drafting a TE high and largely being able to forget about the position most of the year while grabbing some RBs towards the bottom or waiting for an injury to grab a good RB.

Last year, I was the one who drafted Gronk, and the RBs that fell to me at the draft were people like Doug Martin on Bilal Powell. While it was initially a hurdle, I was later able to grab folks like Aaron Jones, Alex Collins, or Jamaal Williams and made a few trades along the way too. I preferred that to seeing folks routinely struggle to figure out what to do with TEs like Hunter Henry, Jordan Reed, etc.

 
Other than potentially moving in for Gronk, I am likely waiting. Gronk is the only TE with the upside equivolent to the WRs going in his draft range IMO. 

 
Biabreakable said:
I think in past seasons there have been only two or three top TE to consider and their production was much greater than the other TE options, therefore from a VBD perspective, it made sense to draft these guys in round 3 or round 4 because of the advantage they are giving you.

I don't really see it that way going into the 2018 as the top 5 that you mention, all do have some question marks surrounding them as well.

There have been rumors about Gronkowski retiring, also think I heard some talk of the Patriots shopping him in trades to other teams.

Travis Kelce will play with a new QB.

Zach Ertz may have some opportunities diluted if Goedert splits with him.

Greg Olsen may be back to being Cam Newtons favorite target, or maybe he won't. Some uncertainty about how long he will play as well.

Jimmy Graham new team and unknown how often he will be used by Rodgers.

Now I do not consider any of these concerns to be serious, and it would not cause me to drop these players from consideration at the top of the TE heap. Just that there are some things that could cause them to not be as good as they have been recently.

Personally I think there is too much quality depth at the position for me to feel the need to reach on one early and I will wait until a nexus of value occurs before taking one. So after the top RB and WR pool has been depleted is where I will look to take a shot with Engram, Njoku, Howard and look to back that player up with another value pick such as Kittle later on in the draft.
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Interesting and correct take that even the Top 5 have some q's surrounding them.

Unless Gronk retires or gets injured again, I see his performance remaining godly even if he got moved. No team is going pay the man to come over and NOT use that talent/mismatch prodigiously in the offense. 

Of the others, Olsen worries me not so much in terms of targets but in terms of age suddenly catching up. Graham, too, worries me in terms of being on a new team and his inconsistency when he was on SEA even when targeted. He had a bounce-back year this past year, but we'll see if he can keep that momentum going on a new squad with a different dynamic (potentially more receiving options, etc.).

I think Kelce will be find with Mahommes, maybe even better earlier in the season as the sophmore gets his shot and gets his legs under him as a starter -- TE safety blanket may come in to play.

Similarly, Ertz should be just fine -- Eagles spread production between Ertz, Burton, and even Celek, and Ertz got his numbers. My guess is that Burton and Celek's targets get distributed to Goedert and Rodgers while Ertz's targets remain relatively stable.

 
Ilov80s said:
Other than potentially moving in for Gronk, I am likely waiting. Gronk is the only TE with the upside equivolent to the WRs going in his draft range IMO. 
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He is definitely the best, but I would argue that Kelce and Olsen have that upside equivalent to WRs -- and Ertz can continue in that vein too if the Philly offense remains as explosive) -- and give you that significant boost in PPG at the position beyond other options at TE.

 
Good question because this has been troubling me in TE premium drafts.

I'm at 3 TE premium non-DE drafts on the year, all the FFPC/FBG $350 entry leagues. Each draft I've picked out of one of the top spots which of course left me picking at 2/3 turn and 4/5 turn.

First draft I do I see 3 TE's gone before the 2/3 turn. A group of TE's I had hoped to get at 4/5 turn also gone as well as some TE's I hoped to get at 6/7 turn. So in the end I feel like I got burned by lack of TE options, though even if I had hindsight nothing I would have done differently, just the way the cookie crumbled.

Well next two drafts went in such a way that Ertz kept  making it back to me at 2/3  turn and I took him both times, then the TE's I hoped would make it to me at the 4/5 and 6/7 turn of my first draft but did not also made it back to me in this draft. So in those drafts I ended up walking away with 3 TE's in first 7 picks so I end up loaded at TE  but payoff is I'm thin at RB or WR, if not both.

All in all it's made me feel damned if I do and damned if I don't with respect to nabbing one of the TE's early. I mentioned in that first draft I was ended up fairly barren at TE but I'd not have done a thing differently. But what I've been asking myself on the other two drafts is if I'd been better off passing on Ertz at that 2/3 turn or one of the TE's at 4/5 turn. I think the answer for me is yes I'd feel better if I had passed on Ertz in those drafts but that's because I got TE's I liked at 4/5 and 6/7 turn and had those not been available(and most of the time there was only one TE I considered at that spot so not much margin for error) then I'd have been glad to have drafted Ertz.

So in a nutshell what makes his a tough call is you don't know how the rest of your draft is going to unfold and if you'll have options or not to get a TE you like.

My take is if you feel confident you can identify TE's you like and feel good about chances of getting them later I'd lay off TE on first few picks at least.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
He is definitely the best, but I would argue that Kelce and Olsen have that upside equivalent to WRs -- and Ertz can continue in that vein too if the Philly offense remains as explosive) -- and give you that significant boost in PPG at the position beyond other options at TE.
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Kelce and Olsen have more competition for targets than ever. Olsen is 33 and coming off a broken foot. I do agree Ertz is a decent value. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Kelce and Olsen have more competition for targets than ever. Olsen is 33 and coming off a broken foot. I do agree Ertz is a decent value. 
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I think that's right -- in KC, the addition of Watkins will be interesting, as there was really no receiving threat opposite Hill last year. Not sure the addition of Torrey Smith represents a sea change in how the Panthers used Benjamin in game planning (or in talent, for that matter), but Moore could provide a credible WR3/slot guy the Pnathers haven't had.

But that said? I can't see any of these changes affecting either of these teams' use of Kelce or Olsen. Both are out and out studs and command their role in the offense if only because both teams have been so consistently successful with them in the past. The addition of more options in the receiving game won't take away current use of these studs, IMHO. 

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
I think that's right -- in KC, the addition of Watkins will be interesting, as there was really no receiving threat opposite Hill last year. Not sure the addition of Torrey Smith represents a sea change in how the Panthers used Benjamin in game planning (or in talent, for that matter), but Moore could provide a credible WR3/slot guy the Pnathers haven't had.

But that said? I can't see any of these changes affecting either of these teams' use of Kelce or Olsen. Both are out and out studs and command their role in the offense if only because both teams have been so consistently successful with them in the past. The addition of more options in the receiving game won't take away current use of these studs, IMHO. 
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With Kelce it is the addition of Watkins and the loss of Smith. I like Mahomes a lot and think he can be a star, but he is still a major unknown thrown into Kelce equation. Mahomes could turn out to be a major downgrade from Smith. Mahomes will almost certainly be a significant downgrade from 2017 Alex Smith.Smith threw for 4000 yards and 26 TDs in 15 games and was 2nd in the NFL us yards per attempt. 

I get worried about receivers coming back from broken feet, there has been a history of reaggrivation. Olsen is 33. That combination makes me nervous. Funchess stepped up last year with Olsen out. No RB in the league is likely to get the number of targets CMc will get. Also they just spent a 1st round pick on a WR. I don't know why you are writing DJ Moore off as a WR3/slot guy. DJ Moore was an exceptionally dominant college player (stuck on an awful offense), has solid NFL size at 210 and is a Julio Jones level athlete. If he can pick-up on an NFL playbook and picks up quick to the pro way of life, he will be demanding a lot of targets this year. 

 
Ilov80s said:
With Kelce it is the addition of Watkins and the loss of Smith. I like Mahomes a lot and think he can be a star, but he is still a major unknown thrown into Kelce equation. Mahomes could turn out to be a major downgrade from Smith. Mahomes will almost certainly be a significant downgrade from 2017 Alex Smith.Smith threw for 4000 yards and 26 TDs in 15 games and was 2nd in the NFL us yards per attempt. 

I get worried about receivers coming back from broken feet, there has been a history of reaggrivation. Olsen is 33. That combination makes me nervous. Funchess stepped up last year with Olsen out. No RB in the league is likely to get the number of targets CMc will get. Also they just spent a 1st round pick on a WR. I don't know why you are writing DJ Moore off as a WR3/slot guy. DJ Moore was an exceptionally dominant college player (stuck on an awful offense), has solid NFL size at 210 and is a Julio Jones level athlete. If he can pick-up on an NFL playbook and picks up quick to the pro way of life, he will be demanding a lot of targets this year. 
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Great thoughts.

I am not so much writing off Moore but taking the same cautious approach with him as you are with Mahomes -- he's a rookie in the NFL, and WRs generally have a steeper impact curve than RBs (who have shown can be impactful in Year 1). Tools are there, but the execution remains to be seen. 

 
I'm worried about decline from Olsen & Graham, who are both in their 30s and coming off down years.

Jimmy Graham in 2017 at age 31 had the lowest YPT of his career, by over a yard and a half. He had averaged 8.2 YPT for his career, including 9.0 in his first two years in Seattle, and then had 5.4 YPT in 2017. His 33 yards per game were also the lowest since his rookie year, more than 20 yards lower than any other season. The good news for him is that he was still scoring touchdowns in the red zone, and Aaron Rodgers is good at throwing touchdowns (including to aging vets who are in decline, like Jordy Nelson and James Jones).

Greg Olsen in 2017 at age 32 had the lowest YPT of his time in Carolina. He had averaged 7.3 YPT for his career, including 8.1 YPT in his first six years in Carolina, and then he had 6.0 YPT in 2017 (including his playoff game). His yards per game were also way down (to 37 ypg from a Carolina average of 58 ypg), although some of that may be from missing parts of games with injuries. You could also use his injury as an excuse for his low YPT, but injuries often contribute to age-related decline and his foot injury seems like the sort of thing that could permanently sap someone's movement ability so that doesn't make me more optimistic.

I'm generally avoiding both of them, Olsen more than Graham.

 
either pounce on one of the top 3 or wait

by wait I mean take 2-3 high upside guys later.  I've been targeting Ebron and OJ Howard in FFPC.  other guys that fit the bill are Burton and Njoku, although Burton seems to be creeping up draft boards.

I would avoid the middle tier guys who have already peaked (Walker, Rudolph, Olsen, Reed, etc.).  One mistake I see owners make is to feel like they have to jump on one of the middle-tier guys early after missing out on the top guys.  usually that pick could be better spent on a RB or WR.

take a young guy with talent who could explode if things break right.

again, depends on the league but that's how I would approach FFPC.

 
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My TE value plays in PPR leagues

A) Sefarian Jenkins - looked really strong last year and arguably the best redzone target on the team

B) Ben Watson - undisputed starter for the Saints, 50 balls easy if remains healthy

C) Njoku - could be the breakout TE of the year and Tyrod loves him some TE

D) Jordan Reed - just make sure you pair him with another reliable TE and he should return value on a per game basis

My TE plays in deeper leagues like FFPC 28 rounders

A) Luke Wilson - a better pure WR, Ebron numbers possible

B) Ed Dickson - starting TE in Seattle

C) Garrett Celek - numbers jumped with Jimmy G at QB

D) Virgil Green - Hunter Henry light?

E) Gerald Everett - year 2, more talented than Higbee

TEs I'm not drafting

1) Jack Doyle - the second best TE on his team but going as TE#12)

2) George Kittle - Celek's numbers just as impressive during Jimmy G games

3) Tyler Eifert - hard pass...would have to slide really far

4) OJ Howard - just paid Brate a boatload of money, this is a split at best

 
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obviouisly it all depends on your league's scoring system for the TE position, but the pool of TEs is very very thin this year, I think it's the time to pounce and not wait. E. Engram should be even better in his second season Barkley helps not hurts his cause, and Shurmur's offense has a pretty good history of working the TE position into the gameplan..Gronk is Gronk, Kelce should take a step backwards with a first year starter at QB, Reid calling offensive plays again ( apparently) , and Watkins hanging around to hawk some balls. Jordan Reed is money when he plays, and he couldn't have stumbled on a better starting QB than Alex Smith, a guy who loves throwing to the TE. the injuries sure have piled up for Reed, but you still have to consider him as the 'best of the rest' TE after the top 5-6 are gone - that is, if you wait on a TE, he's your guy. he's a risky pick, but isn't every other TE selected around his ADP? people would seriously consider Njoku as a starting TE? wow .. you're going to be trailing (badly) at that position all season long. Olsen represents great value as witnessed by all the people showing their concerns for him, seems like he'll be a bargain on draft day.. I haven't heard anyone mention a TE's best friend - Norv Turner - he's the OC in Carolina.he knows a thing or two about TEs. 

 
jmo87usc said:
I’m waiting on TE and grabbing Vance McDonald.  I’m all in on that move and will live or die by it.  
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I’ve picked up Vance off waivers in a bunch of dynasty leagues, hoping for more games like he had in the playoffs. Sneaky late pick that could pay off. 

I suppose it depends on where they are all being drafted. I’d take gronk kelce or ertz by rd 3 depending on who else is available or definitely in rd 4. After that, I’ll wait wait wait and roll with some fliers like ASJ in Jax, whoever wins the job in Detroit (I’m hoping Michael Roberts, that guy could be a red zone monster- 11.5” hands), gesecki, or Ricky seals jones. 

 
I agree with the prop that receiving TEs are becoming more normal in the league.  However, I think the evaluation of TEs has as much to do with offensive style as the talent.  

It is my opinion this was a strong "receiving" TE rookie draft class.

My sleeper rookies... 

Mark Andrews - Baltimore

I don't know why more people are not talking about him in fantasy circles.  While people focus on Hayden Hurst (rightfully so), the first TE Baltimore to be signed to a contract was Mark Andrews, the 2017 Mackey Award winner..  

Although Andrews isn't a terrific blocker, at 6'4" 254 he is a mismatch against most linebackers and safeties in the passing game.  Oklahoma DC Mike Stoops (who signed Gronk) compared him to Gronk in his ability to find the seam and get open in the pass game and the soft hands.  ("... their ability to run routes and get open are what's unique about those guys.  Mark can do whatever he wants on the football field. Create match-ups, that is what Mark is going to be able to do at the next level...") .  Andrews caught 62 passes for 958 yards and 8 TDs in 2017.  Andrews was a WR who outgrew his position.  He is quick off the snap, active hands and excellent lateral agility in release, and fluid hips when he changes direction while running.  I think the Ravens will run a 2-TE set to go with their QB.  Andrews is 6'4" target with flypaper for hands and solid overall footwork. To me, he was one of the steals of the draft (along with Hayden - who is also a great TE prospect).  

Jordan Akins - Houston

There is much talk of a collective effort to replace Fiedorowicz. Akins is the gym rat that outworks the competition.  He is an older former prop baseball prospect, so he knows what it takes to be a professional.  I like his chances to find a role immediately.

Tyler Conklin - Minnesota

If Kyle Rudolph is like throwing "into a mattress", Conklin may be like throwing an alley-oop. Conklin is a former basketball player who has hops. He was a walk on who graduated as team captain - about all you need to know about his character. 

I also see Evan Engram taking another step in what should be an explosive offense.  I don't agree that Eli will be hitting him less.  If you look at Eli historically, he has always thrown to his TEs (even when they had no talent at the position).       

 
Also another thing about Eiffert is his one great season was totally TD dependent. He only put 47 yards a game that year. He scored 13 TDs on 52 receptions which seems very unlikely to repeat itself even if he was healthy. 

 
TripItUp said:
My TE value plays in PPR leagues

C) Njoku - could be the breakout TE of the year and Tyrod loves him some TE
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Don’t feel like I am only singling you out in some of your posts, but where is the Tyrod loving tight ends comment coming from?

In Taylor’s three years starting in BUF, Charles Clay never ranked in the Top 15 in PPR leagues on a team lacking players to throw to. Taylor is going to a team with a lot more receiving options than the Bills had. 

Njoku may end up being a decent TE pick this year regardless and might end up being undervalued, but I don’t think that will stem from Tyrod loving throwing to his TEs.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
Don’t feel like I am only singling you out in some of your posts, but where is the Tyrod loving tight ends comment coming from?

In Taylor’s three years starting in BUF, Charles Clay never ranked in the Top 15 in PPR leagues on a team lacking players to throw to. Taylor is going to a team with a lot more receiving options than the Bills had. 

Njoku may end up being a decent TE pick this year regardless and might end up being undervalued, but I don’t think that will stem from Tyrod loving throwing to his TEs.  
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Clay averaged greater than 50 receptions a year with Tyrod at QB...at a minimum Tyrod doesn't mind throwing to the TE.

 
TripItUp said:
Clay averaged greater than 50 receptions a year with Tyrod at QB...at a minimum Tyrod doesn't mind throwing to the TE.
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Clay led the Bills in receptions the past 3 seasons with 157. Runner up was McCoy with 142. Then came Woods with 98 and Watkins with 88. No other WR had more than 36 (and again, that is over a total of 48 games). Bottom line, the Bills were not exactly forcing the ball to their WRs.

Clay ranked 18, 16, and 17 in PPR leagues the past 3 years, even with his average of 52 receptions and 80 targets per year.

Now Tyrod has Landry, Gordon, and Coleman to throw to with Johnson out of the backfield. Njoku currently has an ADP of TE13.

In PPR leagues, Ebron was the #13 TE last season with a line of 53-574-4. For argument's sake, let's say that is the baseline for the TE13 for this year. What do you see Njoku putting up numbers wise and target wise that would make him rank significantly better than TE13?

On a side note, I just finished a draft with Njoku going off the board at TE10. A little too rich for me, but IMO he is starting to trend in that direction in terms of where he is getting drafted.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Clay led the Bills in receptions the past 3 seasons with 157. Runner up was McCoy with 142. Then came Woods with 98 and Watkins with 88. No other WR had more than 36 (and again, that is over a total of 48 games). Bottom line, the Bills were not exactly forcing the ball to their WRs.

Clay ranked 18, 16, and 17 in PPR leagues the past 3 years, even with his average of 52 receptions and 80 targets per year.

Now Tyrod has Landry, Gordon, and Coleman to throw to with Johnson out of the backfield. Njoku currently has an ADP of TE13.

In PPR leagues, Ebron was the #13 TE last season with a line of 53-574-4. For argument's sake, let's say that is the baseline for the TE13 for this year. What do you see Njoku putting up numbers wise and target wise that would make him rank significantly better than TE13?

On a side note, I just finished a draft with Njoku going off the board at TE10. A little too rich for me, but IMO he is starting to trend in that direction in terms of where he is getting drafted.
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MY redraft TE tiers/rankings are as follows

Gronk

Kelce

Ertz

Graham

Rudolph

Olsen

Reed

Walker

Engram

Njoku

Burton

My range of outcomes for Njoku are the following:

Low:  35 receptions 420 yards, 4TDs

High:  65 receptions 975 yards, 9 TDs

I believe he has top 3 upside which is why I have him ranked 10th.  My rankings are not based on a single static projections...similar to JJ Zachariason's rankings approach which I believe is the only correct approach.  

 
Great convo about Njoku -- I am really torn about his prospects this year as both youse guys  @TripItUp and @Anarchy99  call out good pros and cons. 

Browns were 18th overall in pass attempts in 2016 (567) and 9th last year with 574. Likely because they were behind. A lot. 

With much better receiving options, the offense is likely going to be better, which to me means a better run/pass balance -- and especially given the scramble ability Taylor brings to the table. This means to me a downtick in pass attempts from the previous few years. Let's call it conservative at 520 attempts.

Landry has averaged 142 targets and 100 catches/season. I see no reason why 145 targets isn't a good baseline to use given his skillset as a volume receiver, and 95-100 catches also is eminently reasonable.

Duke Johnson is still there and was still a leading target option, and I think his role in the offense stays stable, but with Landry, Gordon, and Coleman, I predict a slight downtick from his career high of 93 targets last year to 80 targets. 

Gordon and Coleman are take-the-top-off-your-D options and compliment Landry nicely -- they will be used, and if Gordon stays clean and healthy, I'd project his 42 targets in 5 games last year to a whole season to 135 targets -- which I think is actually a reasonable baseline given his target values of 96 and 159 in 2012 and 2013. 

Coleman has averaged 28 catches off of 66 targets his last two seasons with the Browns. I think he takes a slight step forward this year given coverage focus on Landry and Gordon -- giving him 75 targets.

That leaves 85 targets for Njoku. Applying his reception:catch ratio of 53.3% last year to 75 targets, that's 45 catches. Applying his 12yds per reception last year of 12 gives 547 yards. 

So not significantly better than TE 13 to use @Anarchy99's proposed baseline.

ETA: Not sure what that analysis is worth now that I read it over, as I may have been overly aggressive in the overall target count. This is all to say that I think Njoku will improve, but it would be better to pounce on a much more reliable target magnet at the position.

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Browns were 18th overall in pass attempts in 2016 (567) and 9th last year with 574. Likely because they were behind. A lot. 
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As a baseline for targets and pass attempts I started with Haley's offense in Pittsburgh...where Jesse James and Vance McDonald had 87 targets combined in 2017..

Throw in the facts that Njoku has superior athletic upside to those players and Tyrod has proven to be comfortable throwing the ball to Clay, and you have a few more positive factors for Njoku.

I also believe Haley and Tyrod will make this offense work, much moreso than last year's Browns but lesser than the 2017 Steelers.

If I had to choose a static projection for Njoku targets I'd say around 70, but Ii believe there is more upside depending on his maturation and the overall effectiveness of the offense, which are the two biggest question marks.

 
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great topic and discussion... i'm in the waiting camp for TEs (and QBs) this season. I see a 3 player Tier 1 but I would prefer RB/WR in that ADP range.

so I'm likely to wait until Rd7-Rd10 to pick up my TE/QB, and double up fairly quickly.

So looking at taking the last of Tier 2 (down to Walker, Rudolph, Reed and maybe Burton). Then find a upside play like Kittle or Ebron.

 
TripItUp said:
As a baseline for targets and pass attempts I started with Haley's offense in Pittsburgh...where Jesse James and Vance McDonald had 87 targets combined in 2017..

Throw in the facts that Njoku has superior athletic upside to those players and Tyrod has proven to be comfortable throwing the ball to Clay, and you have a few more positive factors for Njoku.

I also believe Haley and Tyrod will make this offense work, much moreso than last year's Browns but lesser than the 2017 Steelers.

If I had to choose a static projection for Njoku targets I'd say around 70, but Ii believe there is more upside depending on his maturation and the overall effectiveness of the offense, which are the two biggest question marks.
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People can project whatever numbers they want in any fashion they want. But IMO the "Big 3" in CLE is unlike the "Big 3" in PIT. Not exactly apples to apples. Using the offensive tendencies from one team and then trying to apply them to another could lead to a lot of risk / high margin for error in coming up with projections. But if you want to use the Steelers offense as a starting off point . . . 

The Steelers TE group averaged 69-677-4 over the past three seasons. The Browns TE corps put up a combined 68-817-5 . . . so the Browns TE usage and production was actually better. In 2017, in 1 PPR leagues, PIT ranked 23rd in combined TE fantasy scoring with 151 points. CLE ranked 16th at 180. For comparison, PHI led the league at 314 points.

DeValve and Njoku almost split the CLE TE workload down the middle last year (32-386-4 for Njoku compared to 33-395-1 for DeValve). I get that Njoku is more gifted and more talented . . . but does DeValve just take a seat on the bench and Njoku gets the full pie instead of just the piece?

There certainly is a lot going on with the Browns. Lots of changes at the skill positions other than TE. Gordon is back for real this time (I guess we will have to wait and see), Landry was added, Mayfield was drafted. Taylor was signed. Hyde came on board. Chubb was drafted. And we haven't even mentioned that we are talking about the Cleveland Browns.

A lot has to play out in Njoku's favor for him to really shoot up the rankings this year. But looking at the results we have to review and assess, Clay ranked TE18 in BUF, James ranked TE22 in PIT, and Njoku ranked TE24 in CLE.

I have a tough time coming up with scenarios where Njoku posts the 65 receptions / 975 yards / 9 TD line you mentioned as his ceiling. That's in the Gronk / Kelce / Ertz tier.

 
Anarchy99 said:
DeValve and Njoku almost split the CLE TE workload down the middle last year (32-386-4 for Njoku compared to 33-395-1 for DeValve). I get that Njoku is more gifted and more talented . . . but does DeValve just take a seat on the bench and Njoku gets the full pie instead of just the piece?
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Local media is reporting that Njoku will take over as the full time starter this year, and I don't see why he wouldn't.  DeValve will play a more traditional backup role which makes sense on several fronts.  

I'll try to find the Beacon article that basically states this.

ETA:  https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/playerpage/2136474/david-njoku

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Clay ranked TE18 in BUF, James ranked TE22 in PIT, 
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I think it's safe to say Njoku is far superior to either of those TEs.  If Njoku is making plays Haley is going to get him the ball IMHO because that's how you win football games, getting the ball to your playmakers.

It may come down to that I believe in his freakish ability a bit more than others and it follows the Browns will find ways to get him involved.  At TE#13 with an ADP of 12.01, I'm not really risking a lot for a fair amount of upside at a position that is devoid of upside.  

FTR, the way I construct my range of outcomes for projections, my low projection has a 20% chance and my high projection has a 20% chance, so I'm basically saying there is a 20% chance Njoku hits that upside projection I quoted..which means I don't think it's likely but possible.   

 
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I’m of the mindset that Kelce will be Mohannes binky. And if the young QB is the gunslinger some predict he’s the next heir to the thrown, surpassing Gronk. I like Ertz too of course

 
jmo87usc said:
I’m waiting on TE and grabbing Vance McDonald.  I’m all in on that move and will live or die by it.  
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Right or wrong, I respect this.  Take an educated stand on a player and ride with it.  I'll be honest I haven't researched McD very hard other than knowing what he did in that playoff game last year but I'm gonna do a background check on him now.

 
My problem with McDonald is his low ceiling....when is the last time the Steelers had a top 5 TE?  

I'd rather draft guys like Watson/ASJ/Njoku whom I have with higher ceilings.

 
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I'm generally waiting on TE myself.  Most of my leagues don't have playoffs (best season record) so a guy like Reed at his price point is a good play given his typical per game production.  To me if you can get him in the 8th, it's worth the risk.

If I can't get Reed where I want him, I've been leaning RSJ, ASJ, and believe it or not....Clay.  Buffalo is so devoid of talent that i really think Clay can be productive.  People forget he was a top 10 TE last year prior to his injury.  He may not be the greatest all around TE, but he's a professional pass catcher who runs good routes.

 
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Ace08 said:
I'm generally waiting on TE myself.  Most of my leagues don't have playoffs (best season record) so a guy like Reed at his price point is a good play given his typically weekly production.  To me if you can get him in the 8th, it's worth the risk.

If I can't get Reed where I want him, I've been leaning RSJ, ASJ, and believe it or not....Clay.  Buffalo is so devoid of talent that i really think Clay can be productive.  People forget he was a top 10 TE last year prior to his injury.
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I was with you until Clay, the Bills are going to be terrible this year.

 
TripItUp said:
I was with you until Clay, the Bills are going to be terrible this year.
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All the more reason to look at Clay.  SOMEONE is going to catch passes there and they are likely going to be trailing ALOT.

Buffalo can be the worst team in the history of organized football, the targets (as meaningless as they may be in real world football) could easily accumulate

 
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Ace08 said:
more soft coverage in meaningless games too.  I personally like Clay a lot and you can get him for free so minimal risk.
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It's an interesting take...I may have to look at this more closely for all the Bills receivers.

I know the year that A-Rob popped, the Jaguars had a ton of meaningless catchup time in second halves.   

 
TripItUp said:
It's an interesting take...I may have to look at this more closely for all the Bills receivers.

I know the year that A-Rob popped, the Jaguars had a ton of meaningless catchup time in second halves.   
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Yeah, just giving you something to think about and research.  I feel like I still need to research several more TE situations to find other possible gems.  I'm not sure what to do with guys like Burton and Kittle.

 
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TripItUp said:
My problem with McDonald is his low ceiling....when is the last time the Steelers had a top 5 TE?  

I'd rather draft guys like Watson/ASJ/Njoku whom I have with higher ceilings.
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Wait. Didn’t you earlier today pimp Nijou for inheriting the OC from the Steelers? Now you are saying the Steelers never have a good TE. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Wait. Didn’t you earlier today pimp Nijou for inheriting the OC from the Steelers? Now you are saying the Steelers never have a good TE. 
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Point taken, but Njoku is more talented than any Steeler TE we've seen for decades.   And I did use the Steeler TE targets as a baseline.  

Keep trying for that gotcha moment...I'm sure you'll get there.   :thumbup:

 
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TripItUp said:
Point taken, but Njoku is more talented than any Steeler TE we've seen for decades.   And I did use the Steeler TE targets as a baseline.  

Keep trying for that gotcha moment...I'm sure you'll get there.   :thumbup:
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I’m not saying McDonald has tremendous upside but he does remind me a lot of Heath Miller who put up some good seasons in Pittsburgh. He was a former second round pick so the talent is there.

 
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