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Players you are planning on reaching for (1 Viewer)

Elevencents

Footballguy
I feel bad starting this thread since I don’t have much to contribute haha, but curious what guys you are thinking of jumping on ahead of their projected ADP. I have a list of players I have my eye on and would like on my team but honestly the only player I’m technically reaching for is Dalvin Cook. I have a late 1st and I’m tempted to go with him there because I’m afraid I’ll lose him on the turn. I think the Vikings can be even better this year than they were last year and with a dominant defense they should be pounding the rock a lot. He also has great hands and McKinnon is gone so that only increases his chance at targets. The only real downside to him is the injury of course and the chance that Murray could spell him at the goal line on occasion. To clarify I’m speaking from redraft PPR.

Anyone reaching for players due to elevated confidence or simply man crush? Think we could all benefit from some discussion. 

 
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Only reaching for a few hail mary's near the end of the draft.  Taking Breida, Dixon, and Doug Martin well ahead of their ADP to ensure they are on my team. Breida will be no worse than a RB3/4 and if Mckinnon underperforms or doesnt hold up to the workload (since he has never had it) he has a legit chance to be a low-end RB1.  Dixon and Martin have similar upside that could easily come to fruition as well.

 
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Only reaching for a few hail mary's near the end of the draft.  Taking Breida, Dixon, and Doug Martin well ahead of their ADP to ensure they are on my team. Breida will be no worse than a RB3/4 and if Mckinnon underperforms or doesnt hold up to the workload (since he has never had it) he has a legit chance to be a low-end RB1.  Dixon and Martin have similar upside that could easily come to fruition as well.
It's hard to call anyone a reach once you get into rounds 12+. ADPs can be pretty wild at that point as people are less concerned about ADP and value and are more focused on getting their pet players. 

 
Here are a couple guys I am reaching for:

1. Melvin Gordon- his ADP is generally in the 10-14 range. I am looking at him in the 6-8 range. Over the last 2 years, there have only been 4 RBs to average 70% or better snap share both seasons (DJ got hurt in week 1 otherwise he would have been on the list): Bell, Zeke, Gurley and Gordon. Also no surprise these guys have been the dominant fantasy RBs of the last 2 years. 

2. Gronk- TE is very murky this year. I have concerns with the changes in KC and the age/injury with Olsen and addition of targets in Carolina. The difference between Gronk and TE is wider than maybe any other position's 1st and 2nd player for me. Gronk has legitimate upside to not just finish as TE1 but to put up stats on par with a top 5 WR. I think Gronk should be drafted in the same range as Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen and Davante Adams. 

3. Sony Michel- He is RB25 off the board but when I combine the incredible production NE RBs put out each year and the history of touches that 1st round RBs get, I am willing to take a bigger risk than RB25 on Michel. 

 
It's hard to call anyone a reach once you get into rounds 12+. ADPs can be pretty wild at that point as people are less concerned about ADP and value and are more focused on getting their pet players. 
True.  I guess i just dont think there is any crazy market undervaluation on a player in the earlier rounds then.

 
I tend to be less concerned when we are looking at ADP 3.2 vs 3.10 and instead just rate players with round grades. Is the player someone I would take in the 1st? Is the player a 4th round pick? When I am up in the 3rd round, I draft from the pool of guys I have rated as worthy of a 3rd round pick and I don't worry where exactly they are being taken. Given the snake format, if I am picking 3.3 and a guy I like has an ADP of 3.11, that is likely my only shot at drafting them so there isn't any reason to worry about ADP at that point. 

 
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According to this ADP Larry Fitzgerald is being drafted 76th overal, pick 7.04 in 12 team leagues the 36th WR off the board.

I will be selecting Fitzgerald higher than this. Likely the 4th round in 12 team leagues, but depending on what I think of the folks I am drafting against, I may select him higher than this if I think I have to.

Fitzgerald was WR 5 in PPR last season, WR 11 in 2016, and WR 7 in 2015 based on this Fitzgerald should not be selected lower than the 2nd round, but there you have it.. going in the 7th round in June (he was being selected later than this in March - May).

I don't consider taking him in the 3rd or 4th round a reach at all, but it is well ahead of his ADP.

 
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 2. Gronk- TE is very murky this year. I have concerns with the changes in KC and the age/injury with Olsen and addition of targets in Carolina. The difference between Gronk and TE is wider than maybe any other position's 1st and 2nd player for me. Gronk has legitimate upside to not just finish as TE1 but to put up stats on par with a top 5 WR. I think Gronk should be drafted in the same range as Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen and Davante Adams. 
This.  If I can draft Gronk with a late 2nd / early 3rd round pick, I am pulling the trigger....especially if Allen, M Thomas and Adams are off the board.

 
Like @Ilov80s, I tend to look at things more toward rounds overall as opposed to specific draft position.  These are guys I would "reach" for, as in I'm going to go a round higher to get them before I have a big gap at the turns of a snake draft.

- Larry Fitzgerald.  Every year people predict his demise, yet he's about as close to a guarantee as there is.  I don't worry about QB issues - as the guy out of the slot, he became the crazy target hog last year with Gabbert.

- Ronald Jones II.  Currently pick #66.6 on Yahoo (mark of Satan?).  Chance for an RB 2 that late, I'm going for it.

- Royce Freeman. Pick #91.9 on Yahoo currently.  Again, chance for an RB2 that late.

 
I will grab Anthony Miller and Ridley. Now, if Training camp or preseason show me something different then I might go in a different direction but Miller is likely to be on my roster.

Tex 

 
According to this ADP Larry Fitzgerald is being drafted 76th overal, pick 7.04 in 12 team leagues the 36th WR off the board.

I will be selecting Fitzgerald higher than this. Likely the 4th round in 12 team leagues, but depending on what I think of the folks I am drafting against, I may select him higher than this if I think I have to.

Fitzgerald was WR 5 in PPR last season, WR 11 in 2016, and WR 7 in 2015 based on this Fitzgerald should not be selected lower than the 2nd round, but there you have it.. going in the 7th round in June (he was being selected later than this in March - May).

I don't consider taking him in the 3rd or 4th round a reach at all, but it is well ahead of his ADP.
Wow if that’s the case I am absolutely reaching for him then. Not many players I would take over him when I draft late in the 3rd. I just thought that was kind of expected territory. 

 
Will Fuller, Ronald Jones, Larry Fitz , Marvin Jones, Alshon Jeffery, Crowell, Gio Bernard, Chris Carson

***For best ball on Draft. The ADP isn’t true but I find myself drafting these guys a lot.

 
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According to this ADP Larry Fitzgerald is being drafted 76th overal, pick 7.04 in 12 team leagues the 36th WR off the board.

I will be selecting Fitzgerald higher than this. Likely the 4th round in 12 team leagues, but depending on what I think of the folks I am drafting against, I may select him higher than this if I think I have to.

Fitzgerald was WR 5 in PPR last season, WR 11 in 2016, and WR 7 in 2015 based on this Fitzgerald should not be selected lower than the 2nd round, but there you have it.. going in the 7th round in June (he was being selected later than this in March - May).

I don't consider taking him in the 3rd or 4th round a reach at all, but it is well ahead of his ADP.
just saying I haven't done a ton but maybe 6 best ball, 3 footballguys, 3 classics, over at FFPC in early summer and Fitz consistently gets picked in rd 4. Don't know what kind of drafts those are where he is showing 7.04 ADP but I certainly would not bank on that. I think the thing that is off here is their ADP info. Went in and calculated his average ADP in my drafts (10) to date and it is 3.9

 
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FFCalculator has Fitzgerald's ADP at 3.09 in PPR leagues.

MFL is a bad source for ADP - they do a bad job of separating out keeper leagues and such. Take Courtland Sutton, for example. Hot rookie pick in dynasty, almost no redraft value behind Thomas & Sanders, undrafted in many redraft leagues, not ranked at FFCalculator. Sutton's MFL "redraft" ADP is WR39 at Bia's link and WR42 at Mystery Achiever's link.

 
  @ZWK - Why do you think MFL is mixing in Keepers? 
                65 full redraft + 32 Keeper + 24 rookie = 121 All Draft Types
          (Or did I misunderstand your point?)
I only play Redraft, so haven't paid attention to other categories.
Mainly wanted to red flag relying on ADP with only a handful of drafts as representative. Of course, unless you're drafting really soon, all rankings could move significantly as we get closer to season with more info.

I also always wonder how much ADP becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as people end up taking a player around where they saw the ADP to not miss out.

 
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love the fitz call...

Mahomes

Cohen 

Ronald Jones

Josh Gordon

Watkins

Garcon

Golladay (think its just a matter of time)

DJ Moore

Sutton

TE (really depends on if take one early or not) but if not...

Burton

ASJ

RSJ

 
I've done 19 MFL10s so far. Fitz has gone as early as 3.04 and late as 4.04. Average is 3.89.

I'm reaching for Kelvin Benjamin, Chris Godwin, occasionally Corey Davis, and Kerryon Johnson. I consider Benjamin the most undervalued player in FF right now. I'm not in love with him and I hate the Bills, but he's going to get all the targets there. He will win weeks for people this year. McCoy news isn't awesome, though.

 
  @ZWK - Why do you think MFL is mixing in Keepers?                
Because they have Courtland Sutton as a top 45 WR, and a bunch of other weird rankings like that for Baker Mayfield, Mike Gesicki, etc. If you compare MFL ADP to other sources on the FBG ADP page, there's an obvious pattern where young prospects go much earlier on MFL and old vets go later.

 
I've done 19 MFL10s so far. Fitz has gone as early as 3.04 and late as 4.04. Average is 3.89.

I'm reaching for Kelvin Benjamin, Chris Godwin, occasionally Corey Davis, and Kerryon Johnson. I consider Benjamin the most undervalued player in FF right now. I'm not in love with him and I hate the Bills, but he's going to get all the targets there. He will win weeks for people this year. McCoy news isn't awesome, though.
Interesting. I haven’t even given a thought to Benjamin. I’ll have to look closer. 

 
Biabreakable said:
According to this ADP Larry Fitzgerald is being drafted 76th overal, pick 7.04 in 12 team leagues the 36th WR off the board.

I will be selecting Fitzgerald higher than this. Likely the 4th round in 12 team leagues, but depending on what I think of the folks I am drafting against, I may select him higher than this if I think I have to.

Fitzgerald was WR 5 in PPR last season, WR 11 in 2016, and WR 7 in 2015 based on this Fitzgerald should not be selected lower than the 2nd round, but there you have it.. going in the 7th round in June (he was being selected later than this in March - May).

I don't consider taking him in the 3rd or 4th round a reach at all, but it is well ahead of his ADP.
Not only is that ADP unrealistic, it's completely ridiculous.  The latest you'll get him in a real 12 man league draft is the beginning of the 4th, and even that is extremely optimistic.

I do several mocks on FF calculator every day and I've seen him go ALOT at the end of the 2nd round, beginning of the 3rd.  I personally have him ranked right behind AJ Green so to me it's justified to take him at the end of the 2nd round once the consensus top 8 receivers are gone.

 
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rschroeder1 said:
Like @Ilov80s, I tend to look at things more toward rounds overall as opposed to specific draft position.  These are guys I would "reach" for, as in I'm going to go a round higher to get them before I have a big gap at the turns of a snake draft.
Yeah this is something I see people get mixed up about sometimes.  To me it's really only a "reach" if you think the player would otherwise last until after your next pick but take him anyway.  To take it to an extreme example, if you have the 1st overall pick in a 12 person snake draft (so your second pick is 24th overall), and you take a guy with ADP of 15 or something, most people would call that a huge reach.  But if you really want that guy and you're pretty sure he's not going to be there at the end of the 2nd, by all means take him with the first pick.  Whether or not it's a good pick is debatable, and you won't know for sure until the season is over.  But it's not what I'd call a reach.  

 
Because they have Courtland Sutton as a top 45 WR, and a bunch of other weird rankings like that for Baker Mayfield, Mike Gesicki, etc. If you compare MFL ADP to other sources on the FBG ADP page, there's an obvious pattern where young prospects go much earlier on MFL and old vets go later.
Thx. I see what you mean on the  FBG ADP, though for some reason Rookie RBs don't really follow the pattern, esp vs RTS. But couldn't that be explained by the sort FBG is using, i.e. they didn't limit to redraft? I don't see anything in the key on what was used.

 
Aunt Jemima said:
just saying I haven't done a ton but maybe 6 best ball, 3 footballguys, 3 classics, over at FFPC in early summer and Fitz consistently gets picked in rd 4. Don't know what kind of drafts those are where he is showing 7.04 ADP but I certainly would not bank on that. I think the thing that is off here is their ADP info. Went in and calculated his average ADP in my drafts (10) to date and it is 3.9
Yeah was DLF ADP which I agree must be off. 

I thought this was based on MLF ADP but I guess not.

 
Not only is that ADP unrealistic, it's completely ridiculous.  The latest you'll get him in a real 12 man league draft is the beginning of the 4th, and even that is extremely optimistic.

I do several mocks on FF calculator every day and I've seen him go ALOT at the end of the 2nd round, beginning of the 3rd.  I personally have him ranked right behind AJ Green so to me it's justified to take him at the end of the 2nd round once the consensus top 8 receivers are gone.
That makes more sense.

I did an ADP search awhile back and found that link on redditt where the person who posted the link was saying it was the best they had found.

Guess not. I do like how it is formatted though.

I was willing to believe that Fitzgerald was being drafted that late because his ADP has been pretty low the last two seasons and I have owned him a lot because of that. I usually take him in the 4th round.

 
That makes more sense.

I did an ADP search awhile back and found that link on redditt where the person who posted the link was saying it was the best they had found.

Guess not. I do like how it is formatted though.

I was willing to believe that Fitzgerald was being drafted that late because his ADP has been pretty low the last two seasons and I have owned him a lot because of that. I usually take him in the 4th round.
I'd be a really happy camper if he lasted that long and I had a pick in the 10-12 range.  

 
Fitz has been going no later than the 4th on several best ball sights including draft.com and fffpc

Fitz is still great value as early as the late 3rd, particularly if you start your draft RB-RB.

 
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Mentioned this in his own thread, but I’ll probably reach a bit for Chase Edmonds as a DJ owner. 

 
NIck Chubb , Alex Collins, Evan Engram, Eli Manning, CJ Anderson, Gronkowski, Larry Fitzgerald, Dalvin Cook if there's is a 'reaching' out for him, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen ( who else will they throw to?!) , Aaron Rodgers ( not really a reach but I'll take him earlier than I normally would), Matt Ryan - Falcons' #'s were down something like 25% last year from 2016..if they get half of that back, Ryan is going to be MONEY, K. Drake - there are a lot of carries for him to pick up, and Gase has a history of pounding the RB and not using RBBC, Julio Jones can't possible score less TDs than last year, Ridley helps, improved ATL offense means uptime in stats for Jones, Eagles' D. SF's Goodwin in deeper leagues.

 
CMC - got his sea legs in the 2nd half of the season; 591/5 line on fewer than 100 touches.

Marvin Jones - I think people are hailing the arrival of Golladay (at Jones’ expense) too soon.  He has Stafford’s trust and is a great contested catch guy.

Jordan Reed - From 2015-2016, Reed averaged 13G 76/819/8. On FFC, he’s going behind Trey Burton (TE10).  After Top 3 TE’s this position feels generic.

 
CMC - got his sea legs in the 2nd half of the season; 591/5 line on fewer than 100 touches.

Marvin Jones - I think people are hailing the arrival of Golladay (at Jones’ expense) too soon.  He has Stafford’s trust and is a great contested catch guy.

Jordan Reed - From 2015-2016, Reed averaged 13G 76/819/8. On FFC, he’s going behind Trey Burton (TE10).  After Top 3 TE’s this position feels generic.
CMC - Anderson arrival hurts value IMHO, second round price tag too rich...I'd rafher have Davante or Mixon...all going around the same spot.  I do like CMC more than McKinnon and McCoy(even before news)

Marvin Jones - totally agree, been scooping him up like crazy...love his TD rate for best balls

Jordan Reed - agree again, a nice risk/reward ratio at his current cost

 
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CMC - Anderson arrival hurts value IMHO, second round price tag too rich...I'd rafher have Devontae or Mixon...all going around the same spot.  I do like CMC more than McKinnon and McCoy(even before news)

Marvin Jones - totally agree, been scooping him up like crazy...love his TD rate for best balls

Jordan Reed - agree again, a nice risk/reward ratio at his current cost
I assume you mean Davante Adams and not Booker.  

 
CMC - got his sea legs in the 2nd half of the season; 591/5 line on fewer than 100 touches.

Marvin Jones - I think people are hailing the arrival of Golladay (at Jones’ expense) too soon.  He has Stafford’s trust and is a great contested catch guy.

Jordan Reed - From 2015-2016, Reed averaged 13G 76/819/8. On FFC, he’s going behind Trey Burton (TE10).  After Top 3 TE’s this position feels generic.
Good catch on CMc. I hadn't noticed how much better he was in the final 8 weeks. 16 game pace of 1180 and 10, with 4.7 YPC. I am intrigued now. I wonder what happened to so drasticaly improve his rushing. 

 
Good catch on CMc. I hadn't noticed how much better he was in the final 8 weeks. 16 game pace of 1180 and 10, with 4.7 YPC. I am intrigued now. I wonder what happened to so drasticaly improve his rushing. 
I think with CMC, the Panthers ultimately want to wind up having him carry the ball 10x/game and catch 5 passes/game.  240 touches (particularly with a third of them coming via reception) seems palatable for his size/build.  2nd half of the season saw him at 5.97 YPT.  If he maintains, that's 1400+ YFS.

With Anderson, I think CMC's GL opps tail off, but 3 of his 5 TD's in the second half were by reception.  Could see a 4/4 or 5/5 type TD split emerging.

CAR invested a top 10 pick in the guy.  His versatility and ability to line-up almost anywhere on the field means his snap counts are high.

 
Biabreakable said:
According to this ADP Larry Fitzgerald is being drafted 76th overal, pick 7.04 in 12 team leagues the 36th WR off the board.

I will be selecting Fitzgerald higher than this. Likely the 4th round in 12 team leagues, but depending on what I think of the folks I am drafting against, I may select him higher than this if I think I have to.

Fitzgerald was WR 5 in PPR last season, WR 11 in 2016, and WR 7 in 2015 based on this Fitzgerald should not be selected lower than the 2nd round, but there you have it.. going in the 7th round in June (he was being selected later than this in March - May).

I don't consider taking him in the 3rd or 4th round a reach at all, but it is well ahead of his ADP.
Mizelle is a dynasty ADP resource, not a redraft one.

 
I think with CMC, the Panthers ultimately want to wind up having him carry the ball 10x/game and catch 5 passes/game.  240 touches (particularly with a third of them coming via reception) seems palatable for his size/build.  2nd half of the season saw him at 5.97 YPT.  If he maintains, that's 1400+ YFS.

With Anderson, I think CMC's GL opps tail off, but 3 of his 5 TD's in the second half were by reception.  Could see a 4/4 or 5/5 type TD split emerging.

CAR invested a top 10 pick in the guy.  His versatility and ability to line-up almost anywhere on the field means his snap counts are high.
Kind of interesting splits for him from games 1-8 and games 9-16. You would swear it was 2 different players. 

Weeks 1-8 averages: 6.1 carries, 14.6 rushing yards, 2.4 ypc and 6.1 receptions, 47.3 receiving yards, 7.7 ypr, 0.3 TD/game

Weeks 9-16 averages: 8.5 carries, 39.8 rushing yards, 4.7 ypc and 3.9 receptions, 34.1 receiving yards, 8.8 ypr, 0.7 TD/game

 
This goes against my typical strategy, but Aaron Rodgers. I just can't see a scenario where he isn't the QB1 as long as he is healthy. Wilson lost 2 major targets, Brady lost his deep threat, Newton got an over the hill OC, and Watson/Wentz have bigger health questions, and shorter track records. Rodgers is always there in Round 3 for me in mocks, and while it leaves me a little thinner at WR, there's something to be said for a relatively sure thing. I could easily take him in round 2, if RB doesn't go the way I want it to. 

 
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This goes against my typical strategy, but Aaron Rodgers. I just can't see a scenario where he isn't the QB1 as long as he is healthy. Wilson lost 2 major targets, Brady lost his deep threat, Newton got an over the hill OC, and Watson/Wentz have bigger health questions, and shorter track records. Rodgers is always there in Round 3 for me in mocks, and while it leaves me a little thinner at WR, there's something to be said for a relatively sure thing. I could easily take him in round 2, if RB doesn't go the way I want it to. 
No knock on Rodgers, but he lost a couple receivers also (Bennett and Nelson). Granted, he gets a big target in Graham - but Graham is old and has an injury track record.  For fantasy purposes, if Watson stays healthy, he should push for #1 because of rushing yards (big If).  Brady has deep threats, but regardless, he doesn't really need a "deep threat".  He just needs the RBs and TEs to catch the ball to spread the field horizontally.  Wentz was heroic in the pocket last year. Not sure how he will be when he gets back from injury.  I think Newton will put up good numbers this year. I expect the Panthers run game to be strong. 

I would say wait until the 4th if you feel you need to jump to get him.  Your valuation (even if you are trying to jump him) seems a little high to me. 

 
Mizelle is a dynasty ADP resource, not a redraft one.
Yeah I have figured that out now that 4 other people have pointed it out already in the thread.

Give me some slack  ;)

What I have learned is that this ADP is pretty turrible, for dynasty or otherwise.

 
It goes against everything I've always done and believed in but if Watson is somehow still there in the 5th round I would seriously consider him.  I think he can be another Steve Young-ish type player from a fantasy perspective.

Now with that said, I've seen mocks where he goes in the 3rd and 4th round.  At that price I just can't do it given the rb's and wr's still on the board.

 
I agree with TRIP.  I don't think there is any way Fitz is not drafted by the 4th round of any draft.  I drafted him last year in the 5th round and it was a steal.  He ended up the 4th WR in our league. Bradford and Rosen both excel throwing quick underneath patterns.  That is Fitz's strength.  

 
Yeah I have figured that out now that 4 other people have pointed it out already in the thread.

Give me some slack  ;)

What I have learned is that this ADP is pretty turrible, for dynasty or otherwise.
No, it isn't.  He's not expected to play beyond 2018, so in a dynasty startup you're essentially buying a single year of throwaway production.

 

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