Mike Evans Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

You guys probably know the deal by now -- after a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are one of the main features on the site during the preseason. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary fell off, but we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay

Last year, Mike Evans was one of the largest dissapointments for fantasy football players. He was drafted as a top five reciever, but finished seventeenth PPR scoring. This was due in large part to critical injuries to Jameis Winston and key members of the defense that destabilized the team. Now we know that Winston will miss three games due to suspension. The defense is healthy and improved through free agency and the draft. Can Ryan Fitzpatrick hold down the fort until Winston is able to return? Even with Winston back, do you see this offense as being able to do enough to help Mike Evans return to dominance? Is this division just too tough for the Bucaneers to hang in and create competitive game scripts that will help Evans? Do you believe Mike Evans is overrated or is he a value at current ADP?

Let's discuss!

He is off my draft list. Defense and running game should be improved. Too many weapons to force the ball to Evans. I think Godwin makes a big jump this year which further caps his upside. I really do not see anything in the positive column that would help him achieve the level of production in which he is being drafted for. 

King of the Jungle said:

He is off my draft list. Defense and running game should be improved. Too many weapons to force the ball to Evans. I think Godwin makes a big jump this year which further caps his upside. I really do not see anything in the positive column that would help him achieve the level of production in which he is being drafted for. 

Click to expand...

The same could almost be said for OBJ. he on your no draft list too?

Jello_Biafra said:

The same could almost be said for OBJ. he on your no draft list too?

Click to expand...

I am not too concerned about any of the Giant targets taking large leaps in target share. Throw in Winston missing the first three games and some time for him to get in sync again as another negative. 

If you believe in the odd/even year axiom of production, then prepare to get Mike Evans for a song considering current ADP levels.

Evans is a polarizing player because when he's good - he's awesome and likely greatly underpaid, but when he's average, it comes across feeling like you sucked hind ### since you overpaid.  But at the end of the day, during his 4-year career his average seasonal stat line is 77/1145/8.  The rub on him is that he's not all that efficient a player since he's also averaged 145 targets/year during his career. 

Evans used to be pretty much the only option in the passing game.  And so you could live with his 53% catch rate.  But Cameron Brate got paid.  OJ Howard was picked in the 1st round in 2017.  Desean Jackson is still there and if he's declining, Chris Godwin is on the come.  Humphries in the slot isn't prolific, but he's now established.

While Winston is still QB1 there, we know about his suspension...when Fitz played the majority of games in 2017 (3 games)...Evans put up 14/265/1...but on 30 targets.  I actually think buying Evans at the outset of the season, might be a buying opportunity - and then selling when Winston comes back, but at the same time, I think he's getting a bit overdrafted (WR's going after him - Baldwin, Gordon, Hill, Hilton, Thielen...I like at least 3 better than Evans season long.

The problem is - Evans should be a more efficient player, but he's now in Year 5.  Is that ability ever going to come?  There are better options at WR1 left on the board usually.

The problem with Mike Evans is he gives you NOTHING after the catch.  His production HAS to come from volume, contested catches, and TD's.

In a PPR league, I'd rather take someone like Fitz over him.  You add in Winston's 4 game suspension and he probably won't be on any of my teams this year.

Evans takes a ton of double coverage.  He almost always draws the safety.  He just signed a mega-extension. 

He played most of last year "injured". He was also suspended one game for shoving M Latimore (in defense of Winston). He still reached 1000 yards for the 4th straight year. 

Fitzpatrick is probably an upgrade if Evans can convert more targets to receptions.  Last year when Fitzpatrick started 4 games, Evans saw 31 targets.

I like the alternate year theory also.  Evans was signed before the season for a reason.  

I can't recall where I saw it but Evans targets inside the 10 last year were almost the same as the year previous 

Ace08 said:

The problem with Mike Evans is he gives you NOTHING after the catch.  His production HAS to come from volume, contested catches, and TD's.

In a PPR league, I'd rather take someone like Fitz over him.  You add in Winston's 4 game suspension and he probably won't be on any of my teams this year.

Click to expand...

Winstons suspension is only for 3 games--not 4.  

I just don't want anything to do with this guy. He was my crush coming out of college- thought he was the next great WR. He has been fed volume and had a nice start to his career, but I really don't think he all that good. WIth lots improving options on the offense, I would not be surprised to see his targets dip as I don't see him as a Julio/OBJ type player that demands high volume. 

Seriously considering keeping Tyreek over him.

I'm not sure if I'd rather have someone like Keenan Allen or Davante Adams Long-term.  It's  tough to predict Evans because of volume and QB-play.

He's a great talent, but there are so many weapons in Tampa, that he'll likely be very inconsistent. He's probably one of the 5 most talented WR's in the NFL, but that has really only showed up fantasy wise in 2016. I don't think the Winston suspension hurts much, because as has been stated, he didn't see any real dropoff with Fitzpatrick.

I think he'll obviously be somewhere between his 2016 and 2017 numbers. I'll say 1,200-7. That said, I think WR drops off pretty strongly after Brown/Hopkins, so I don't think a top-5 season is unreasonable even if he isn't as good as he was in 2016. I'm probably not taking him until round 3, which likely means I'm not taking him.

jvdesigns2002 said:

Winstons suspension is only for 3 games--not 4.  

Click to expand...

Yeah sorry....got that tangled with the Edelmen one.  Either way, my worries on Evans run deeper than just his QB's suspension.

It seems to me that we're seeing lots of finger pointing at the QB position  First off Fitz will throw the ball  While some looks may make fans cringe especially on the results  I could actually see the Coaching staff considering the possibility of keeping Fitz active upon Winstons return  The fact of being a long-term mistake looming to not even make it an actual option  Basically the problem at the QB position isn't one so much as the poor performance at the RB position  I also believe the Buc's are aware of this and have addressed the situation

http://www.tbo.com/data/2018/05/09/the-bucs-run-game-has-been-among-the-nfls-worst-can-ronald-jones-ii-fix-it/

Koetter regularly cites the importance of explosive plays. He believes that — besides turnovers — they’re the biggest factor in deciding who wins and who loses. The definition varies, but the standard for Koetter is a pass play of at least 16 yards or a run play of at least 12 yards.

Will Jones deliver the explosive runs the Bucs offense has so sorely lacked? To get a better sense of his big-play potential, I revisited his college career and tallied his runs of at least 12 yards. Then I compared his performance with the running backs taken before him — Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb.

Jones didn’t have the highest rate of explosive runs, but he and Barkley — the second overall pick — were nearly even.

Also, another point of interest to keep in mind when speaking of Evans involves a proven track record consisting of consecutive 1,000 yd Season's  I see mentions of floors and ceilings in some posts about players  Safe to say we may all know the floor of this player  Now consider the ceiling with an explosive running attack!

So what is Evans' dynasty/keeper value now? Was offered Ertz & the 2.6 for him. It's a keep 12 PPR league so the 2.6 is not really the 2.6. The draft includes all vets not kept AND rookies.

Seems to score a boatload of TDs every second year and he is due