IMO, we can probably sort the teams into 3 tiers to figure things out. Basically, starting QB's will either fall in the top half or the bottom half of the league to get to a Top 16.
Teams with offenses that are likely to support a Top 15 QB (in no particular order):
NEP, LAR, PHI, NOS, PIT, ATL, LAC, GBP, DET, HOU
Teams with offenses or situations that are probably less likely to support a Top 15 QB:
NYJ, BUF, MIA, ARI, OAK, DEN, CHI, CLE, CIN, IND (without Luck), BAL
Teams somewhere in the middle:
WAS, CAR, SEA, KCC, SFO, TEN, TBB, NYG, MIN, DAL, JAC
IMO, that first list of 10 has a lot of QBs that barring something really weird happening should be in the Top 15. A lot of people have pointed to the changes in NE and age as a reason for Brady to slip, but he has proven it doesn't really matter who he is throwing to. Since it is a PPG list, him getting injured is less of a factor. If he gets hurt and misses time, he still would likely make the list. The only way he wouldn't is if NE goes to a ground and pound game and rely on the defense. If you watched the SB, that ain't happening.
The Rams scored a ton of points last year, and Gurley likely won't score that many TDs again. I suppose the risk is the Rams defense is so good that they opt to take the air out of the ball and sit on leads. That might be enough for Goff to fall from 12 in FBG scoring to below 16.
The Eagles look to be returning a team that scored a lot and let Blount leave. I still think they score a lot through the air. PIT still has a stacked offense. ATL had a fall from grace last year but added Ridley. I would put Ryan back into the Top 15.
Rivers is one of those guys that on a PPG basis usually makes the Top 15, so I would guess he sticks. Rodgers stays because he's a bad, bad man. Stafford sticks because he throws a lot, plays indoors, and when was he not a Top 15 guy in PPG? Watson potentially could fall out if he can't play the same coming back from injury.
In the SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE group . . .
Green had a super human season last year and is switching teams and systems. I would say he falls out. Newton and Wilson each have had some up and down seasons and have gotten a lot of fantasy points rushing the ball. If they rush less, they are at risk of falling out of the Top 15. A leg injury to either guy that prevents racking up rushing points would likely do the trick, so I would guess one of those two falls off the list.
Mahomes is a mostly green starter, so he could make the list. I think Jimmy G. will struggle more than people think, ans a slight down tick could easily have him just out of the Top 15. I am not sold that TEN wants to have a more vertical game, which keep Mariota out. Winston might come back from suspension with something to prove. He ranked in the Top 15 on a ppg basis last year, so breaking into the Top 15 on this list wouldn't take much doing.
Eli should have a better running game and an better OL, but he is still Eli. This might be his last chance to make this list, but I am still a little skeptical.
As for other guys falling off, I don't think Keenum makes it. DEN not the same situation as MIN, and I would be a little down on MIN this season anyway. Cousins might still be on the bubble. A strong defense and likely a better running game with Cook might limited how much Cousins has to throw the ball. And Bradford never should have counted on this list in the first place.
So I would pick Wilson, Smith, Keenum, Jimmy G, Bradford, and Cousins to fall off. If I had to add 6 in, I would pick Cam (not sure how he wasn't on the list to begin with), Winston, Mahomes, Luck (if he comes back), and that 15th spot could be just about anybody. If things click, I'll take a shot in the dark at Tyrod (even though I said the Browns were in the unlikely category).
