His 16 game pace from 2015-2017 is
112/1396/6 on 163 targets. That is 18 ppg in PPR, which would have ranked #4 last year, #7 in 2016, and #10 in 2015.
So IMO he is clearly a top 10 WR. But is he definitely a top 5 WR in 2018? Not necessarily.
Allen got 159 targets last season. While he seems likely to be a target hog again, it's hard to say any player is a lock for that many targets. Here are some possible impacts to his targets in 2018:
- Last season, Allen had more targets (159) than all of the other Chargers WRs combined (158). But Mike Williams wasn't healthy and only got 23 targets last season. If he is healthy and there are no major injuries to Tyrell Williams or Benjamin, Allen's share of the WR targets seems likely to be reduced at least by a small amount.
- RB Ekeler only got 35 targets last season, but was very efficient with them. Gordon was also effective on his 83 targets. This is a reason I think vacated TE targets from Henry and Gates won't help the WRs too much. Most will still go to TEs, and the balance will likely mostly go to the RBs. (Plus, Gates could still return.)
- The defense was #3 in points allowed and #6 in turnovers forced last season, and should be better this year. Combine that with the fact that the Chargers play a reasonably easy schedule this season, and game scripts could result in fewer pass attempts = fewer overall targets for the offense.
The team lost only 1 defensive starter, FS Boston, who was upgraded by #17 overall pick Derwin James.
- Former Pro Bowl CB Jason Verrett back could be healthy and add to what is arguably already the best secondary in the league without him.
- The team spent its first 4 draft picks on defense to add speed, athleticism, and positional versatility.
[*]Another point on game script. The Chargers had the worst PK performance in the league last season. They should have fixed that problem by signing PK Sturgis. A better kicking game will also contribute to conservative game scripts.
The other issue is that Allen does not score a lot of TDs. He had 8 TDs as a rookie in 2013. Since then, he has just 14 TDs in 39 games, despite playing with a good to great QB and averaging 9.6 targets per game throughout that period. I anticipate some will argue this shows he has good growth potential in this area, particularly with Henry and Gates out in 2018. The problem is, Mike Williams was drafted in part because he is supposedly a strong red zone threat; if he plays up to his draft position this season, that could cap Allen's red zone opportunities.
I think Allen is a lock for top 10, barring major injury to him or impactful teammates (e.g., Rivers). But I think he is a long shot for top 5.
