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How Long Will Le'Veon Bell Holdout? (1 Viewer)

Assuming he doesn't get a new deal today, what's your take on how many REGULAR SEASON games Bell win

  • 0

    Votes: 85 52.8%
  • 1

    Votes: 15 9.3%
  • 2

    Votes: 14 8.7%
  • 3

    Votes: 5 3.1%
  • 4

    Votes: 11 6.8%
  • 5

    Votes: 2 1.2%
  • 6

    Votes: 4 2.5%
  • 7

    Votes: 1 0.6%
  • 8

    Votes: 24 14.9%

  • Total voters
    161

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Lots of speculation today about Steeler RB Le'Veon Bell's potential holdout. 

Assuming he doesn't get a new deal today, what's your take on how many REGULAR SEASON games he winds up holding out? 

 
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I think much of this depends on Bell's ability to withstand a holdout. 

I don't know much about Bell's personal life. Is he one of those guys planning for 20 years down the road and putting things away like Saquon Barkley who's putting all his contract money away and living off endorsements.   Or is it a thing where he's committed to spending a ton of money each month. 

I know he's donated a lot of money to schools. Anyone know more?

 
Seems like a negotiation ploy.

Holdouts are rare, and missing games would be very expensive for Bell, so by default it seems unlikely to happen.

And the Steelers can't give him a new contract then, so come week 1 his holdout would not have a demand attached to it. Any leverage he gets applies right now, during contract negotiations. If he was serious about using that leverage to the max and actually holding out if he didn't get a new contract, he would've warned the team loudly and clearly much earlier. Having the possibility slip into the news on the last day for signing long-term contracts is the sort of thing you do to make the other side a bit nervous; it's not what you do if you are committed to holding out if you don't get a new contract and using that as leverage.

 
If he can handle it financially, he should maybe hold out the max amount of time allowable while still becoming an URFA next year. They clearly don’t want to give him the long term money he deserves and are going to ride him until he dies this year. Don’t risk the money and injury.

 
There really isn't anything to gain financially by LB holding out. The team can't give him more money than the amount in the franchise tender. If he wants to skip the first 10 games and still get an accrued season in, he can do that. But he would be costing himself money with no chance to make it back. Not sure that would help his cause any by potentially costing PIT games by not playing.

 
There really isn't anything to gain financially by LB holding out. The team can't give him more money than the amount in the franchise tender. If he wants to skip the first 10 games and still get an accrued season in, he can do that. But he would be costing himself money with no chance to make it back. Not sure that would help his cause any by potentially costing PIT games by not playing.
Do you think he would hold out of the preseason? 

 
I picked 4 games. The 4 preseason games.

I fully expect him to play week 1
I do not think the preseason games count for this poll as there is zero chance he plays in any of them. last year he signed his tender a week before the season. I expect the same this year.

 
I do not think the preseason games count for this poll as there is zero chance he plays in any of them. last year he signed his tender a week before the season. I expect the same this year.
In that case I change my vote to zero. As Anarchy explained above, it doesn't benefit him to hold out. 

 
This is an all or nothing deal. If he isn’t there week 1 he’s only playing half the season. If you choose to try and trade for him, I think you are playing with fire. If you want to be stubborn and think it’s not a possibility he holds out half the year, you have not been paying attention to his negotiations the past two years. I’ve seen a lot of defense of his negotiations and that’s fine. If you think he should be fighting for every cent you should also be thinking that that would require doing whatever is necessary to get every cent. It is not in his best interest to play this season, at all but the franchise tender requires at least one full season accumulated which is 8 games. I do not envy Bell owners and this should give him a healthy correction in redraft rankings.

 
FWIW. https://twitter.com/corryjoel/status/1018866810752413696   Joel Curry:  "Sounds like posturing that should be taken with a grain of salt. Healthy franchise players with unsigned tenders (JPP wasn't healthy) typically don't miss regular season games. Dan Williams of the Chiefs in 1998 was the last franchise player to sit out an entire season."
I’m not sure where this is coming from. Duane Brown did so last year and I distinctly remember VJax doing so as well. 

 
VJax was a RFA with a $3.2M tender, which the Chargers reduced to $0.6M in June after he refused to sign. It was his 6th season, and he was supposed to hit unrestricted free agency but the CBA expired which made things screwy and allowed the Chargers to keep him for cheap. He played hardball but the Chargers did too.

 
One potential outcome is LB refuses to play in the playoffs without a new deal. Franchise players are eligible to re-sign deals with their club after their last REGULAR SEASON game. 

Given that players only have so many chances to win a SB, that seems like an unlikely outcome, but an option none the less. 

 
Hmm, have to revise my position a bit after being corrected about Brown and VJax. Pissing away ~$7 mil now doesn’t seem like a smart short or long term play. 

 
I am always leery of blanket statements without knowing more. For example, in the games Bell was out was Ben or Brown out too? And who were the teams they played when Bell was out? If Bell sat out a 45-3 laughter against the Browns, that would skew the numbers. I will look into this more when I get a chance. He could have missed games against other bottom tier teams.

That’s similar to the Patriots. They are 14-6 without Brady (.700) between the season he missed and the year he was suspended. Do the Patriots really think they are the same team without TB12?

 
Limiting it to games that Ben played in, these are their regular season games without Bell:

2013-09-08    PIT    vs.    TEN    L 9-16
2013-09-16    PIT    @    CIN    L 10-20
2013-09-22    PIT    vs.    CHI    L 23-40
2015-09-10    PIT    @    NWE    L 21-28
2015-09-20    PIT    vs.    SFO    W 43-18
2015-11-08    PIT    vs.    OAK    W 38-35
2015-11-15    PIT    vs.    CLE    W 30-9
2015-11-29    PIT    @    SEA    L 30-39
2015-12-06    PIT    vs.    IND    W 45-10
2015-12-13    PIT    @    CIN    W 33-20
2015-12-20    PIT    vs.    DEN    W 34-27
2015-12-27    PIT    @    BAL    L 17-20
2016-01-03    PIT    @    CLE    W 28-12
2016-09-12    PIT    @    WAS    W 38-16
2016-09-18    PIT    vs.    CIN    W 24-16
2016-09-25    PIT    @    PHI    L 3-34

9-7 record, average score 26.6-22.5

In the regular season games with both Ben & Bell, they went 40-17 with an average score of 25.7-20.7.

(I put this together with data from here and here.)

 
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Missing from that is the Steelers playoff results. 

2014 BAL L 17-30

2015 @CIN W 18-16

2015 @DEN L 16-23

2016 @NE L 17-36 after leaving early in game

A case could be made that the Steelers are 10-10 when Bell doesn’t play. 

 
I am always leery of blanket statements without knowing more. For example, in the games Bell was out was Ben or Brown out too? And who were the teams they played when Bell was out? If Bell sat out a 45-3 laughter against the Browns, that would skew the numbers. I will look into this more when I get a chance. He could have missed games against other bottom tier teams.





 
Sure. I'm leery too. I'm saying the Steelers were VERY aware of this number. 

If you were running the Steelers, would you have given bell a renegotiated long-term new deal?

 
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This could be a lot of things since it is a 16 game sample. Who were they playing, was it weaker teams and the Steelers would score more? Also Bell can slow the games down with his running. The Steelers defense also gave up 2 less points per game.
Sure. These things always have lots of factors. 

If you were running the Steelers, would you have given bell a renegotiated long term new deal?

 
I think he'll do exactly what he did last year - sit out all training camp/preseason and show up for the first game.
Agreed. He'd said as much in March to expect a repeat of 2017. His tweet today about a great September seems to fit right with that. 

 
Sure. I'm leery too. I'm saying the Steelers were VERY aware of this number. 

If you were running the Steelers, would you have given bell a renegotiated long-term new deal?
I think you may be asking the wrong question. I think most would be in agreement that PIT is a better team with Bell than without. So the question becomes what contract would Steeler fans have been comfortable in giving him? How many years, annual value, and guaranteed money. 

Based on what it sounds like Bell wanted (top tier WR money), I would not have offered him that. I don’t think we know what he was demanding, but if I were PIT I would have offered him a 3 year deal for $40-42 million with maybe half guaranteed. I doubt he would accept that, but that’s probably my pricing point. 

 
He should show up middle of the second week of the preseason. Get his legs under him so he can have a monster season. 

 
One potential outcome is LB refuses to play in the playoffs without a new deal. Franchise players are eligible to re-sign deals with their club after their last REGULAR SEASON game. 

Given that players only have so many chances to win a SB, that seems like an unlikely outcome, but an option none the less. 
This would be unforgivable to media and fans. I don't see any healthy player doing this.

 
Lev deserves to get paid ... if he was smart, he shouldn’t play a single snap without a commitment from the Steelers.

Hes the most important piece of that offense - and what happens next year? Negotiations will not be in his favor ... another year older, another 350+ touches etc.

I hate it for fantasy purposes, but for the man? And others to follow? He needs to hold out. He’s much more than a “RB” but that’s how they are trying to pay him 

 
Lev deserves to get paid ... if he was smart, he shouldn’t play a single snap without a commitment from the Steelers.

Hes the most important piece of that offense - and what happens next year? Negotiations will not be in his favor ... another year older, another 350+ touches etc.

I hate it for fantasy purposes, but for the man? And others to follow? He needs to hold out. He’s much more than a “RB” but that’s how they are trying to pay him 
But what is the holdout going to get him? BY RULE, he is prohibited from making any more money than the franchise tag for this year, and he cannot sign another deal with PIT until January after Week 17. There can be no more negotiating from now until then. By not playing, he is only burning money at the rate of around $875,000 per game. PIT can't give him anything else.

 
But what is the holdout going to get him? BY RULE, he is prohibited from making any more money than the franchise tag for this year, and he cannot sign another deal with PIT until January after Week 17. There can be no more negotiating from now until then. By not playing, he is only burning money at the rate of around $875,000 per game. PIT can't give him anything else.
Him holding out ... will change the leverage the owners have on the players. 

If he plays on the franchise tag again - how is his market going to be next year? Much worse. Is he gonna get paid then? 

Nope.

Steelers won’t compete without Lev - and he’s not your typical RB. He shouldn’t have to settle for the same 

 
Him holding out ... will change the leverage the owners have on the players. 

If he plays on the franchise tag again - how is his market going to be next year? Much worse. Is he gonna get paid then? 

Nope.

Steelers won’t compete without Lev - and he’s not your typical RB. He shouldn’t have to settle for the same 
If he gets tagged again (and he won't), he will be due 144 percent of his salary this year, or an average of the top 5 salaries at the highest paid position (QB) - whichever is highest. That is never going to happen.

They would be more apt to apply the transition tag to have the right to match any contract offer, but if PIT didn't want to pay him what he wanted now, it's unlikely they will want to do that next year if another team offers him what he wants.

IMO, the chances are pretty good that Bell (if healthy) would get a better offer from another team with salary cap space to burn. If Bell is in it for the money, he'll go to a mediocre team and get his windfall.

Bell is basically getting paid close to double any other RB this year (last year as well). It's not like he is making peanuts for his position. The market is the market, as they say, and the best Bell can do is take the money on his franchise deal and move on to greener pastures next year.

 
Sure. These things always have lots of factors. 

If you were running the Steelers, would you have given bell a renegotiated long term new deal?
Yeah, but 2 things. I am a MSU alum, so I am a little impartial. Second. I would have met him in the middle some how. He wanted 16 and probably close to 50 million guaranteed. I believe the Steelers offered 12 million average with around 40 guaranteed. So 45 guaranteed and 14 million per? Or give him the 16 per with only 40ish guarantee or 12 million per with 50 guaranteed. I am just throwing vague numbers out though, because I wasn't in the room and have no idea where they were at exactly on the numbers.

 
I had heard Bell wanted what Brown gets per year ($17 million). That would be $85 million over 5 years (so a difference of $15 million in total value). And he probably wanted more guaranteed. It might seem crazy to us, but clearly he wanted more than PIT offered.
Clearly that's what he was thinking.

That wouldn't be what I would have been thinking though. I'd have taken 70MM over 5 years with 30MM guaranteed and run with it. 

Will be super interesting what he gets on the market next year. Time will tell if this is a good deal for him or not. 

I think PIT played this perfectly. They were reasonable. Clearly in good faith (assuming Rapoport is correct) and upped the deal from last year. 

Sounds like Bell isn't mad and the team certainly can't feel like the team owners didn't do their best. 

 
Woah ... if that’s real, Lev needs to fire his agent TADOW
It’s not his agents fault. They had a similar offer last year. The agent AGREED to it and then went to have Bell signed and he told him to go screw. Guy is screwy. He’s like TO but because he hasn’t been out front of a media circus it hasn’t been exposed.

 
Clearly that's what he was thinking.

That wouldn't be what I would have been thinking though. I'd have taken 70MM over 5 years with 30MM guaranteed and run with it. 

Will be super interesting what he gets on the market next year. Time will tell if this is a good deal for him or not. 

I think PIT played this perfectly. They were reasonable. Clearly in good faith (assuming Rapoport is correct) and upped the deal from last year. 

Sounds like Bell isn't mad and the team certainly can't feel like the team owners didn't do their best. 
As I mentioned in one of these threads, the way the system is now, a team can get 5 years from a RB on a rookie deal and another 2 on a franchise tag. If a rookie back went to 4 years of college, he could be 23 as a rookie. By the time that back got to free agency, he could be 30 before having a chance to hit the open market. And we already know teams are not going to shell out big money to a 30 year old running back. I remember hearing that the average NFL RB has an 3.5 year career and there is a decent chance the RBs will have little chance to make a huge payday.

 
Time will tell if this was a good decision for Bell. I would have taken 70MM/5 years with 30MM Guaranteed and kissed Mr. Rooney.

 

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