Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Sign in to follow this  
timschochet

The future of the Republican Party

Recommended Posts

New polling I heard this morning: 73% of Republicans now support tariffs. We already know that the vast majority of Republican voters (80%) support President Trump’s policies on Russia and NATO, and may also be in favor of limiting legal immigration. 

This suggests that the Republican Party, at least for now, has moved from a traditional conservative party to a nationalist party. And that leads us to two possibilities: 

1. This is all largely the result of support of Donald Trump; when Trump is gone, the voters will return to a more traditional conservatism. 

2. This transformation of the Republican Party will survive Donald Trump. 

I’m curious as to what people think is more likely. I’d especially like to hear from those who have traditionally voted Republican. And of your answer is #2, what do you think are the reasons for this change? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been saying #2 for a while now.  During the campaign, a lot of people (me included) thought it was amazing that he was able to keep the race competitive despite being openly racist.  I've since come around to the view that it was his open racism that allowed him to win.  Future Republican candidates will embrace white politics too, because Trump has shown that you can win on that platform while being manifestly incompetent otherwise. 

It's important to note that it's not just that the Republican party is becoming a nationalist party.  It's specifically becoming a white nationalist party.  That's an important distinction. 

  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While not falling into your demographic of desired posters, it's an interesting topic/discussion. Would tend to lean towards #1, with the Trump supporters still with the Republican party, but as a vocal minority.

The answer may depend on how Trump does in 2020, and then if Pence does something in 2024. If they both win, it may be #2. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I've been saying #2 for a while now.  During the campaign, a lot of people (me included) thought it was amazing that he was able to keep the race competitive despite being openly racist.  I've since come around to the view that it was his open racism that allowed him to win.  Future Republican candidates will embrace white politics too, because Trump has shown that you can win on that platform while being manifestly incompetent otherwise. 

It's important to note that it's not just that the Republican party is becoming a nationalist party.  It's specifically becoming a white nationalist party.  That's an important distinction. 

I didn’t want to go there. I get in trouble when I do. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, IvanKaramazov said:

I've been saying #2 for a while now.  During the campaign, a lot of people (me included) thought it was amazing that he was able to keep the race competitive despite being openly racist.  I've since come around to the view that it was his open racism that allowed him to win.  Future Republican candidates will embrace white politics too, because Trump has shown that you can win on that platform while being manifestly incompetent otherwise. 

It's important to note that it's not just that the Republican party is becoming a nationalist party.  It's specifically becoming a white nationalist party.  That's an important distinction. 

How long do you think that playbook works though?  It seems to me that at least at the POTUS level it may be a one and done strategy - look at folks like you, Yankee and Commish who wouldn’t vote for that.  Now that people have seen it in action I think it only goes down as a viable strategy.  I can see pockets of the country where it will still work but I have a hard time believing that will become the norm. I think once they start losing more races we’ll see a shift back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

While not falling into your demographic of desired posters, it's an interesting topic/discussion. Would tend to lean towards #1, with the Trump supporters still with the Republican party, but as a vocal minority.

The answer may depend on how Trump does in 2020, and then if Pence does something in 2024. If they both win, it may be #2. 

Until Pence joined up with Trump, there has been no suggestion in his history that he was anything but a traditional conservative, stressing social issues. 

If for whatever reason Trump suddenly left office, would Pence continue with the same policies toward trade and Russia in particular? I’d guess not, though who knows at this point? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would love to have two (preferably more) viable parties but right now I’m almost assuredly voting straight D for the foreseeable future.  Was talking politics with my former boss last night and we both agreed that the best we can hope for from our current situation is we get a viable 3rd party.  I still don’t think it will happen but maybe if the left continues moving left and the right stays nationalist (or white nationalist) - I think most of our more reasonable PSF posters would probably vote for this new moderate party if it existed.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sometimes I think the worse problem for the Republican Party is that it occasionally gets in power. And then people can see that it really isn't up to the task of improving the lives of the large majority of Americans. A policy of White Nationalism isn't going to bring manufacturing jobs back to Indiana or available health care to eastern Kentucky or affordable college to kids everywhere. Vote suppression won't work forever; at some point in time even GOP voters tire of a party which has no interest in 21st century governance.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Until Pence joined up with Trump, there has been no suggestion in his history that he was anything but a traditional conservative, stressing social issues. 

If for whatever reason Trump suddenly left office, would Pence continue with the same policies toward trade and Russia in particular? I’d guess not, though who knows at this point? 

Not sure what would happen if Trump "suddenly" left office, but if Trump wins again in 2020, it would be a viable strategy for Pence to follow the Trump playbook in 2024. Now he may not be able to pull that off, but if Trump wins again, Pence strategically probably won't run away from Donald's "platform" in 2024 if it has proven successful, he'll probably piggyback on it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Sometimes I think the worse problem for the Republican Party is that it occasionally gets in power. And then people can see that it really isn't up to the task of improving the lives of the large majority of Americans.

For a large majority of Americans both parties haven’t improved their lives over the last 30 years - R’s are going beyond that to actively making their lives worse.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Not sure what would happen if Trump "suddenly" left office, but if Trump wins again in 2020, it would be a viable strategy for Pence to follow the Trump playbook in 2024. Now he may not be able to pull that off, but if Trump wins again, Pence strategically probably won't run away from Donald's "platform" in 2024 if it has proven successful, he'll probably piggyback on it.

Trump’s “strategy” involves Twitter nonsense, attacks and constant lies - maybe I’m naive but I don’t see Pence doing that.  Some of the policies and white nationalism I could see but for me a good bit of what makes Trump so bad is just Trump being himself.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I've been saying #2 for a while now.  During the campaign, a lot of people (me included) thought it was amazing that he was able to keep the race competitive despite being openly racist.  I've since come around to the view that it was his open racism that allowed him to win.  Future Republican candidates will embrace white politics too, because Trump has shown that you can win on that platform while being manifestly incompetent otherwise. 

It's important to note that it's not just that the Republican party is becoming a nationalist party.  It's specifically becoming a white nationalist party.  That's an important distinction. 

This take is good news for people who are against the current socialist agenda of the democrat party

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Not sure what would happen if Trump "suddenly" left office, but if Trump wins again in 2020, it would be a viable strategy for Pence to follow the Trump playbook in 2024. Now he may not be able to pull that off, but if Trump wins again, Pence strategically probably won't run away from Donald's "platform" in 2024 if it has proven successful, he'll probably piggyback on it.

You dont want a President Pence. I don’t want a President Pence

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HellToupee said:

You dont want a President Pence. I don’t want a President Pence

Of course not. Hopefully more people will come around on Donald Trump like this in 2020 as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, HellToupee said:

This take is good news for people who are against the current socialist agenda of the democrat party

Is it? 

Let’s assume for the moment that you’re correct about the Democratic Party (that’s a separate discussion, one worth having). Despite Trump’s victory in 2016, polls suggest that while a strong majority of Republicans approve of his nationalist policies, the majority of Americans do not. That in turn suggests that the opposite of your statement is true: it’s bad news for those who oppose the Democrats. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly, I think the old conservative party is long gone and that the party of Trump is here to stay.  It may not ultimately be as brazen as Trump is, but the party has been generally trending this way for some time.

I hate to say it, but the agenda of the GOP during pretty much my entire adult life has just been simply fear.  Fear of immigrants, fear of terrorism, fear of socialism, fear of coastal liberal elites, fear of declining religiosity, etc.  

Old guard GOP leadership may not personally hold these beliefs, but it's become clear that it's a winning strategy for the GOP, at least in the short-term.  Someone posted it just the other day (may have been you, Tim) about how GOP leadership goes silent on things like the disastrous Russian press conference until they see how the base reacts.  They've hidden behind the veneer of "principled conservatism" for a long time, but it's finally become evident in the past few years that their supposed economic conservatism is largely non-existent, and the social conservatism is really just a way of clinging to a slowly-fading Christianity-dominated US society.

I am interested to see where it goes in the long-term.  I don't really think it's a winning strategy 20 years down the line.  I'm generally no fan of the Democratic Party but I can't see myself voting GOP, even in local races, for awhile.  I'll probably continue voting third party with Democrats sprinkled in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Steve Tasker said:

Honestly, I think the old conservative party is long gone and that the party of Trump is here to stay.  It may not ultimately be as brazen as Trump is, but the party has been generally trending this way for some time.

I hate to say it, but the agenda of the GOP during pretty much my entire adult life has just been simply fear.  Fear of immigrants, fear of terrorism, fear of socialism, fear of coastal liberal elites, fear of declining religiosity, etc.  

Old guard GOP leadership may not personally hold these beliefs, but it's become clear that it's a winning strategy for the GOP, at least in the short-term.  Someone posted it just the other day (may have been you, Tim) about how GOP leadership goes silent on things like the disastrous Russian press conference until they see how the base reacts.  They've hidden behind the veneer of "principled conservatism" for a long time, but it's finally become evident in the past few years that their supposed economic conservatism is largely non-existent, and the social conservatism is really just a way of clinging to a slowly-fading Christianity-dominated US society.

I am interested to see where it goes in the long-term.  I don't really think it's a winning strategy 20 years down the line.  I'm generally no fan of the Democratic Party but I can't see myself voting GOP, even in local races, for awhile.  I'll probably continue voting third party with Democrats sprinkled in.

Several people on this forum and elsewhere have said this shift is the "death throes" for the folks who support this fear (as you put it).  I think that's mostly accurate - the real question is how long until the death of those fears takes place.  Is it 2 years and we see a huge swing in 2020 or is it more like 10, 20 years?  The public shift on things like abortion and gay marriage highlights the direction we are headed.  While I don't like it, I at least get why they are scared of this - it isn't what they grew up with.  In 30 years I wonder what the fears will be and if it will make me unwilling to accept change.

Edited by AAABatteries
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, timschochet said:

New polling I heard this morning: 73% of Republicans now support tariffs. We already know that the vast majority of Republican voters (80%) support President Trump’s policies on Russia and NATO, and may also be in favor of limiting legal immigration. 

This suggests that the Republican Party, at least for now, has moved from a traditional conservative party to a nationalist party. And that leads us to two possibilities: 

1. This is all largely the result of support of Donald Trump; when Trump is gone, the voters will return to a more traditional conservatism. 

2. This transformation of the Republican Party will survive Donald Trump. 

I’m curious as to what people think is more likely. I’d especially like to hear from those who have traditionally voted Republican. And of your answer is #2, what do you think are the reasons for this change? 

I think its safe to say that 73% of Democrats are against tarriffs.

When trump says he changes his mind about tarriffs that number will flip.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't @adonis do this thread a couple months ago with his 'The Republican Party is changing'? It's definitely a topic worth discussing, but I think a lot of this has been covered and we might be better off piggybacking from that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Hilts said:

Didn't @adonis do this thread a couple months ago with his 'The Republican Party is changing'? It's definitely a topic worth discussing, but I think a lot of this has been covered and we might be better off piggybacking from that.

Original title of that was also “republican party is in a death spiral” but was , probably for the best, changed to something more generic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, quickhands said:

I think its safe to say that 73% of Democrats are against tarriffs.

When trump says he changes his mind about tarriffs that number will flip.

So is it your assertion that democrats were for tariffs prior to Trump?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, toshiba said:

So is it your assertion that democrats were for tariffs prior to Trump?

I have no idea.   But what ever the number is now.   It will reverse when trump changes his mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, quickhands said:

I have no idea.   But what ever the number is now.   It will reverse when trump changes his mind.

You are right, you have no idea.

My positions have not changed since Trump entered the race for president.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, toshiba said:

You are right, you have no idea.

My positions have not changed since Trump entered the race for president.

Either has mine.   Infact it hasnt changed in 30 years.   But thanks for your insight.

Edited by quickhands
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

I would love to have two (preferably more) viable parties but right now I’m almost assuredly voting straight D for the foreseeable future.  Was talking politics with my former boss last night and we both agreed that the best we can hope for from our current situation is we get a viable 3rd party.  I still don’t think it will happen but maybe if the left continues moving left and the right stays nationalist (or white nationalist) - I think most of our more reasonable PSF posters would probably vote for this new moderate party if it existed.

The Third Party is the traditional Conservative.  As of right now....THAT party is the one on life support.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, timschochet said:

New polling I heard this morning: 73% of Republicans now support tariffs. We already know that the vast majority of Republican voters (80%) support President Trump’s policies on Russia and NATO, and may also be in favor of limiting legal immigration. 

This suggests that the Republican Party, at least for now, has moved from a traditional conservative party to a nationalist party. And that leads us to two possibilities: 

1. This is all largely the result of support of Donald Trump; when Trump is gone, the voters will return to a more traditional conservatism. 

2. This transformation of the Republican Party will survive Donald Trump. 

I’m curious as to what people think is more likely. I’d especially like to hear from those who have traditionally voted Republican. And of your answer is #2, what do you think are the reasons for this change? 

Probably more 2 than 1, but elections and political seasons change all the time. The bloodbath that should be the next two elections should clean up some of this mess.

I hope.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/20/2018 at 7:31 AM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

The Republican Party is dead.  It just hasn't been renamed yet.

Done.

Quote

Under the plan, which has been in the works for several weeks, the Trump reelection campaign and the RNC will merge their field and fundraising programs into a joint outfit dubbed Trump Victory.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:
On 7/20/2018 at 8:31 AM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

The Republican Party is dead.  It just hasn't been renamed yet.

Done.

Quote

Under the plan, which has been in the works for several weeks, the Trump reelection campaign and the RNC will merge their field and fundraising programs into a joint outfit dubbed Trump Victory.

I suspect I don’t fully understand the ramifications of this but I find it to be kind of frightening. And I read in another thread that SC is cancelling their primaries? I know people hate this kind of language but I can’t help but view these people as the enemy. I’m really worried about 2020, another Trump term will be devastating.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Ranethe said:

I suspect I don’t fully understand the ramifications of this but I find it to be kind of frightening. And I read in another thread that SC is cancelling their primaries? I know people hate this kind of language but I can’t help but view these people as the enemy. I’m really worried about 2020, another Trump term will be devastating.

He wont make it through 2019.  Hell, I dont know if he's president come this Jan.  Anyway, he's not running in 2020, unless it's running from the law.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Remember that time when Republicans were REALLY MAD that some people at the DNC said some mean things about Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton won millions of more votes except where people caucused instead of VOTING, and Donna Brazille gave Hillary the debate question "What's 2+2?" and BERNIE SANDERS WAS CHEATED?!?

I bet those Republicans are pissed now, huh?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First of all if Trump is around following the Mueller probe he will lose in 2020 and outraged angry Trump Republicans will remain making up 25% of the population. A new 3rd party will emerge with moderate policies and a moderate agenda which in time will be supported by about 1/3 of the population as the number of independents decline. The Democratic party will be quite progressive and will supported by the largest share of the populous around 35%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Done.

 

Basically.

Trump has purchased a party, and slapped his name on it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Johnnymac said:

The future of the GOP looks bleak at this point.  Thoughts & prayers ;)

For now, yes. But I'm very curious to see where this goes. My big fear with Trump is that he may have forever changed how the public/voters process information. Trump may hopefully be gone soon, but there are still the people that elected him. Will they ever go for a candidate that speaks in full, coherent sentences again? The major problem we have is that what Trump did worked. A reality TV buffoon with no political experience (allowing people to basically project whatever values they want on to him) speaking to people via social media in the short soundbites that are mostly lies (and it doesn't matter).

It's basically every fear we've ever had about politicians taken to the extreme. And it worked. 

Obviously, there are plenty of signs of hope in the electorate. The mid-terms. And it's not like Obama was that long ago.

But once people get used to Trump's style, it's concerning wondering if they'll ever go back. It's like asking a kid that plays video games all day to go read "War and Peace". The attention span of the electorate has been severely diminished in a short time.

Edited by pollardsvision
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Republican Party as a built in base of 35%.  As long as they use lipstick and rouge and repaint every few years.....they'll be a'ight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of last night, I am starting to read pretty strong criticism of Trump at Free Republic. The reason is his “caving” on the wall by signaling that he will not hold out for a shutdown. 

Its probably temporary; they’ll probably love him again tomorrow. Still, it’s the first time in 3 years that I can remember reading ANY criticism of Trump from his base. Words like “liar”, “hypocrite”, and “weak” are being thrown about. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, timschochet said:

As of last night, I am starting to read pretty strong criticism of Trump at Free Republic. The reason is his “caving” on the wall by signaling that he will not hold out for a shutdown. 

Its probably temporary; they’ll probably love him again tomorrow. Still, it’s the first time in 3 years that I can remember reading ANY criticism of Trump from his base. Words like “liar”, “hypocrite”, and “weak” are being thrown about. 

 

The thing that’s troubling about that is FR thinks Trump is not being a big enough #####. Like they think he’s some sort of moderate!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Remember that time when Republicans were REALLY MAD that some people at the DNC said some mean things about Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton won millions of more votes except where people caucused instead of VOTING, and Donna Brazille gave Hillary the debate question "What's 2+2?" and BERNIE SANDERS WAS CHEATED?!?

I bet those Republicans are pissed now, huh?

I imagine all the democrats that thought all of that was no big deal share the same opinion here too right? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, parasaurolophus said:

I imagine all the democrats that thought all of that was no big deal share the same opinion here too right? 

Well, when 95% of the posters here are leftist then you would be correct sir.  I find it amusing how all of these posters are experts on the future of the Republican party.  People feel safe in numbers I suppose. 

Edited by JohnnyU

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JohnnyU said:

Well, when 95% of the posters here are leftist then you would be correct sir.

Can you explain to me what it is you do not like about the "leftists"?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Johnnymac said:

Can you explain to me what it is you do not like about the "leftists"?

They have their hands in my pocket too often.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

They have their hands in my pocket too often.

Really?  I suppose the right doesn't do that, huh?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Johnnymac said:

Really?  I suppose the right doesn't do that, huh?

The Right provide happy endings. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.