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Auction Draft Values (1 Viewer)

jtbreidert

Footballguy
According to footballguys, a $200 budget means you should never spend $60 or more on a player. Yet, all mocks I've done have the top tier players going for mid $60s up to $70s. Is the auction cheat sheet incorrect, or are they assuming you reach for the first couple of rounds?  Mocks seem to have extreme prices for top 10 players, whereas Footballguys cheatsheets have a more steady decline in value.  Any thoughts on going all in for early rounds?  

 
According to footballguys, a $200 budget means you should never spend $60 or more on a player.
that's just valuation. it doesn't say don't go over that. It still tells you going $100 is probably not a good idea, but going $65-$70 could be okay as a reach if you really believe in a player. the auction cheat sheet does give u a good scale to set ur expectations. ur league ultimately decides how top talent valuation will go. for the past 5 years I see top 3 or 4 guys go at about 32-34% of cap, which is really high, but it's a valid strategy imo.

 
Ok, it's my first year in auction, so I have little experience. So you would start with this sheet and adjust as the draft dictates?  I like to have a hard line so I don't spend all my money in one place, plus this is a 1st year dynasty draft so I have to have money left for waivers. Do you know of any cheat sheets for auction dynasty drafts?

 
So part of your 200 budget is for waivers also? That makes it pretty difficult to strategize if that's the case. I have been in dynasty auction for many years but the waiver $ was never tied in with the auction draft $. That doesn't make any sense.

 
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Ok, it's my first year in auction, so I have little experience. So you would start with this sheet and adjust as the draft dictates?  I like to have a hard line so I don't spend all my money in one place, plus this is a 1st year dynasty draft so I have to have money left for waivers. Do you know of any cheat sheets for auction dynasty drafts?
bolded is exactly what i do. i get the hard line thing and i usually have that in mind also, but it'll absolutely change throughout. If this is the first year auction for others too, then the bidding will be all over the map. I would expect everyone to be tentative and conservative. Hit the good players early and don't be afraid to spend if that's the case. I seen some auction sheets out there for dynasty, but really, it's not great. Value players like a normal draft, see how ur league goes about spending, and be flexible. My auction has never gone anywhere near the valuation of FBG or any other Web sites and we been auctioning for close to a decade. for dynasty it'll depend a lot on who is available for that year.

So part of your 200 budget is for waivers also? That makes it pretty difficult to strategize if that's the case. I have been in dynasty auction for many years but the waiver $ was never tied in with the auction draft $. That doesn't make any sense.
same here, we draft with $x and have a $y set aside for in season transactions once we get past the draft. this system would require some crazy planning plus some people are gonna get screwed for the season if not careful.

 
Well this is a dynasty with a $200 salary cap.  So drafting and waivers are all treated in context of your cap and player contracts.  Maybe this isn't typical of dynasty. 

 
This doesn't sound typical of anything TBH. Are you sure you don't have a separate purse for FAAB?
I suppose it isn't typical but it's how I'm reading the rules sent out by the league commissioner. 

"The salary cap of $200 will serve as the league's equalizer. How an owner spends their money is entirely up to them. Even after auction night a team must stay underneath the league's cap so it will be highly recommended to leave a little cap space to give you flexibility in roster movement. If you don't have the cap space to add a player you would have to drop one or more players to create the space needed to satisfy the bid. During the off-season the cap may be exceeded without penalty, but all owners must stay within the cap from the time of the keeper date through the completion of the NFL regular season. The only exception is during a brief period during in-season bidding. If an owner goes over the cap they must make a corresponding drop before the next bid period or within 24 hours (whatever comes first)." 

 
Wow. That sounds incredibly and unnecessarily complex.... but it's your league heh. I'm just trying to wrap my head around the cap and waivers. So say you want RB"X" on waivers and you have 10$ left after the draft. Is ten the max you can bid on RB "X"? Is it not a FAAB system but a waiver system? In which case, where are the values for WW players coming from? 

Wait I think I got it: you pick up RB X for 10$, but you're already maxed on your cap, so you have to drop 10$+ worth of players. In that case, what's the max you can bid on a FA? Is it 200$ (in which case you'd have to drop your entire team)? Seems like this system makes the WW an extremely convoluted and complex process that can easily be tanked by a doofus who doesn't want to compete anymore and I'm not sure what the "gain" is.

 

 
According to footballguys, a $200 budget means you should never spend $60 or more on a player. Yet, all mocks I've done have the top tier players going for mid $60s up to $70s. Is the auction cheat sheet incorrect, or are they assuming you reach for the first couple of rounds?  Mocks seem to have extreme prices for top 10 players, whereas Footballguys cheatsheets have a more steady decline in value.  Any thoughts on going all in for early rounds?  
It's a valuation based on the league settings and projections.  Keep in mind that auction values for any one specific league is based on supply and demand.  All it takes is one guy or more to drive up prices.

If you see that the top players are going for more than your cheatsheet valuation, you'll have to adjust. I remember one auction that I did where I refused to overpay for the top players  (e.g. the top 10 RBs) like many teams were doing.  Two things happen. You either end up with a lot of depth and no stars OR you end up overpaying for middle-tier players or the last player in a top tier.

Often you can get the best deal on the 3rd or 4th best player in a tier early because teams are saving their money for the top 2. The worst situation tends to be the last player left in a tier. Then desperation seems to set in.

You'll often find at least 2 other teams saving money. Then teams tend to be overbid in the middle to late stages of the draft because these teams with money are waiting for the best remaining players. Waiting for players seems to be a mistake imo. You'll often end up in a bidding war at the end. I prefer to just go get your players early, but save a little bit of extra money to be able to get the players at the end.

 
Is this a salary cap league, where if you buy a guy for $25 then you own him for $25/yr forever? If so, then you should especially focus on getting guys who have a chance at a large increase in value. e.g., If you get Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, and Robby Anderson for $20 each, then you might wind up with 1 star WR locked in at $20 and 2 guys who you cut, which is better than having a star WR locked in at $60.

 
jtbreidert said:
According to footballguys, a $200 budget means you should never spend $60 or more on a player. Yet, all mocks I've done have the top tier players going for mid $60s up to $70s. Is the auction cheat sheet incorrect, or are they assuming you reach for the first couple of rounds?  Mocks seem to have extreme prices for top 10 players, whereas Footballguys cheatsheets have a more steady decline in value.  Any thoughts on going all in for early rounds?  
I've been in an auction dynasty/keeper league for 5 years now.  Elite guys are hard to come by, go get them.  Also, from my experience mocks always have guys going higher than what people in your league will spend in draft.  Don't be afraid to look like the guy who overpaid by a few$'s because when your RB(s) are top 5 and they went value and ended up w/ a low end RB1 or RB2(s) they'll wish they had paid up for elite guys.  Same at WR.

 
ZWK said:
Is this a salary cap league, where if you buy a guy for $25 then you own him for $25/yr forever? If so, then you should especially focus on getting guys who have a chance at a large increase in value. e.g., If you get Calvin Ridley, Mike Williams, and Robby Anderson for $20 each, then you might wind up with 1 star WR locked in at $20 and 2 guys who you cut, which is better than having a star WR locked in at $60.
There are contracts involved based on how much you spend on players. That means you can hold them as long as the contract holds up. There are franchise tags, too, but I won't get into that.  So you don't have them for $25 forever, but if you spend $25 on a player they are under contract for 4 years if you want them that long.  There is no penalty to dropping before contract is up, so you can free up cap space. I agree with the upside argument you're making. 

 
jtbreidert said:
I suppose it isn't typical but it's how I'm reading the rules sent out by the league commissioner. 

"The salary cap of $200 will serve as the league's equalizer. How an owner spends their money is entirely up to them. Even after auction night a team must stay underneath the league's cap so it will be highly recommended to leave a little cap space to give you flexibility in roster movement. If you don't have the cap space to add a player you would have to drop one or more players to create the space needed to satisfy the bid. During the off-season the cap may be exceeded without penalty, but all owners must stay within the cap from the time of the keeper date through the completion of the NFL regular season. The only exception is during a brief period during in-season bidding. If an owner goes over the cap they must make a corresponding drop before the next bid period or within 24 hours (whatever comes first)." 
Very similar to an auction league I'm in - $400 cap, no separate FAAB pool.  During blind-bid waivers, you specify who you're going to drop for the player you want, and your max bid is (dropped salary) + (existing cap space).  So if you spend all your money at the auction, your waiver max is directly related to who you're dropping.

It's also not a true dynasty, as players kept from one year to the next get an increase of $1-10 based on their performance.  So expensive studs tend to recycle back into the draft pool after a year or two, but getting David Johnson for $7 as a rookie :whistle:  can pay off for YEARS.

 
Very similar to an auction league I'm in - $400 cap, no separate FAAB pool.  During blind-bid waivers, you specify who you're going to drop for the player you want, and your max bid is (dropped salary) + (existing cap space).  So if you spend all your money at the auction, your waiver max is directly related to who you're dropping.

It's also not a true dynasty, as players kept from one year to the next get an increase of $1-10 based on their performance.  So expensive studs tend to recycle back into the draft pool after a year or two, but getting David Johnson for $7 as a rookie :whistle:  can pay off for YEARS.
Great grab on David Johnson.  I wish we started this thing last year, as I snuck Alvin Kamara in the last round and probably could have had him for $1.  Problem is his contract would be up at the end of the year, which means I'd have to franchise tag him, but that only gives me a year and costs me $15.

 
There are contracts involved based on how much you spend on players. That means you can hold them as long as the contract holds up. There are franchise tags, too, but I won't get into that.  So you don't have them for $25 forever, but if you spend $25 on a player they are under contract for 4 years if you want them that long.  There is no penalty to dropping before contract is up, so you can free up cap space. I agree with the upside argument you're making. 
Yeah, I'm almost always a believer in the "win now" philosophy in dynasty start-ups, but a setup like this screams for spending most of your budget on high-upside youth. If you want to chase a stud into the $60-70 range, make it Barkley. Otherwise I'd go several dollars above AAV on every young guy with stud potential I could lay my hands on - Williams, Corey Davis, Kirk, Sutton, Penny, Michel, Engram, and so on. Even my back-of-bench guys would be young lottery tickets rather than veteran filler - guys like John Ross, Anthony Miller, D.J. Chark, Matt Breida.

Even if you hit on just a third of your picks, you'll have 4-5 studs - most of a starting lineup - locked down for 4 years at well below market value. That'll give you an incredible advantage for years to come.

In this particular format (assuming I'm reading right and there's no separate FAAB pool) I think I'd also set a hard cap of about $175 on my own auction funds. People are so used to being told to spend all their money in auctions that even in a league that uses that same money for FAAB there will be a tendency for owners to overspend. Having $25 in FAAB in-season when no other owner has more than $10-15 will more than make up for the downside of having $10 less to spend on draft day.

 
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Yeah, I'm almost always a believer in the "win now" philosophy in dynasty start-ups, but a setup like this screams for spending most of your budget on high-upside youth. If you want to chase a stud into the $60-70 range, make it Barkley. Otherwise I'd go several dollars above AAV on every young guy with stud potential I could lay my hands on - Williams, Corey Davis, Kirk, Sutton, Penny, Michel, Engram, and so on. Even my back-of-bench guys would be young lottery tickets rather than veteran filler - guys like John Ross, Anthony Miller, D.J. Chark, Matt Breida.

Even if you hit on just a third of your picks, you'll have 4-5 studs - most of a starting lineup - locked down for 4 years at well below market value. That'll give you an incredible advantage for years to come.

In this particular format (assuming I'm reading right and there's no separate FAAB pool) I think I'd also set a hard cap of about $175 on my own auction funds. People are so used to being told to spend all their money in auctions that even in a league that uses that same money for FAAB there will be a tendency for owners to overspend. Having $25 in FAAB in-season when no other owner has more than $10-15 will more than make up for the downside of having $10 less to spend on draft day.
I think that's a good strategy, and I'll probably stick to it for the most part.  I think Barkley is too expensive.  He's being valued above Alvin Kamara for some reason. Kamara is a proven beast in a system that knows how to use him.  I don't doubt Barkley's abilities but he's going to the Giants. If I'm reaching, it's probably for a young top-tier (or just below) guy that's in a proven system, like Kamara, Cook or Elliot.  

 
irish eyes said:
So part of your 200 budget is for waivers also? That makes it pretty difficult to strategize if that's the case. I have been in dynasty auction for many years but the waiver $ was never tied in with the auction draft $. That doesn't make any sense.
I thnk the way I structure my auction league works out really for waivers, trades etc.

I have a $300 Salary Cap during the Auction, the day after the Salary Cap moves to $350 for the rest of the year.

 
This sounds a lot closer to a keeper league (where you're able to keep guys for the cost of a pick in the round that they were drafted) than to a traditional dynasty league. So I would focus on high-upside young guys, and also win-now vets with lots of redraft value (Fitzgerald, etc.).

I would spend the whole $200 (or very close to it) in the original auction, and then just be really willing to cut guys who look like they're underperforming. For example, if you spend $200 including $25 on Mike Wiliams, then you can cut Williams and it will be the same as if you had only spent $175 and never gotten Williams. If Williams continues to be a non-factor with the Chargers you can do that; if he shines then you have the option of keeping him and cutting someone else. Spending that last $25 on him gave you option value.

 
I really like the layout, etc. of the FBG cheatsheet, but the auction values are waaaaaaaaaay off, in my opinion.  I used their sheet for the first time last year (was that the first year they had them?) and it threw me way off mentally in my auction draft.  I realize that was probably my fault for not looking at the values sooner, but I'm really not sure where they get them.

I'm sure it's a calculation related to 1st round, 2nd round, etc. but they've got it all wrong.  Use at your own risk.

 
The excel spreadsheets are garbage for auctions.  I'm in a 12-team league, with 16-player rosters, so 192 players.  $200 budget per team, so $2,400 total being spent at the auction.  Yet when I plug those settings into the spreadsheet, the values for the top 192 players do not total $2,400.  They come out anywhere between $2,100 - $2,200.  This means that the overall prices in the spreadsheet are vastly understated, between 8.5% - 12.5% (most of which should probably be allocated towards the higher end players).  I've emailed the site about this in the past; I don't understand why they've never bothered to fix this

 
According to footballguys, a $200 budget means you should never spend $60 or more on a player. Yet, all mocks I've done have the top tier players going for mid $60s up to $70s. Is the auction cheat sheet incorrect, or are they assuming you reach for the first couple of rounds?  Mocks seem to have extreme prices for top 10 players, whereas Footballguys cheatsheets have a more steady decline in value.  Any thoughts on going all in for early rounds?  
Supply and demand.  Consider the prices in your auction to be relative of one another, not what's on the spreadsheet. You'll miss on the elite talent if you think the prices are too high. Then you'll likely overpay on the few best guys left because 2-3 other teams are desperate, too.  Get your players early.

 
Auction nerd checking in.

What i've found with most cheatsheets is that there's always a chunk of players under $10 that really aren't much better than your $1 players.  So, say you have 25 players in the $2-6 range.  Look at those guys and I bet you don't really care about rostering 90% of them.  Move them down to $1 and distribute the money across the top 10ish players.  

You'd need an advanced algorithm to figure this out automatically.  I don't think any fantasy sites (or at least any that I've seen) have that yet.

 
Supply and demand.  Consider the prices in your auction to be relative of one another, not what's on the spreadsheet. You'll miss on the elite talent if you think the prices are too high. Then you'll likely overpay on the few best guys left because 2-3 other teams are desperate, too.  Get your players early.
The advice on these boards for anything not relatively standard (like Keeper drafts, VBD,  Auctions, 2-QB drafts, etc.) is hot garbage.  Doyle Brunson would be proud of many people here ... spread maximum disinformation to get an advantage! Although, I think people tend to do it not on purpose.

OP - if you want some legitimate auction advice from someone who does strategic analysis for a living - PM me.  Almost all of the default tools and values out there for auctions are not tailored to your exact league settings - and that makes a huge difference.  There are also many key mistakes players tend to make in auctions that leads to tons of value being left on the board.

 
The excel spreadsheets are garbage for auctions.  I'm in a 12-team league, with 16-player rosters, so 192 players.  $200 budget per team, so $2,400 total being spent at the auction.  Yet when I plug those settings into the spreadsheet, the values for the top 192 players do not total $2,400.  They come out anywhere between $2,100 - $2,200.  This means that the overall prices in the spreadsheet are vastly understated, between 8.5% - 12.5% (most of which should probably be allocated towards the higher end players).  I've emailed the site about this in the past; I don't understand why they've never bothered to fix this
I think you are completely missing the point of auction valuation if you think the total sum of those 192 players should be $2400. And if you're looking for such a valuation, then I think you should read up on auctions some more in terms of strategy and preparation. There are a few threads on this board and all prior year conversations on this topic should be useful in this context. I don't mean to criticize or berate, but i'm surprised at the math you are trying to apply.

 
The advice on these boards for anything not relatively standard (like Keeper drafts, VBD,  Auctions, 2-QB drafts, etc.) is hot garbage.  Doyle Brunson would be proud of many people here ... spread maximum disinformation to get an advantage! Although, I think people tend to do it not on purpose.

OP - if you want some legitimate auction advice from someone who does strategic analysis for a living - PM me.  Almost all of the default tools and values out there for auctions are not tailored to your exact league settings - and that makes a huge difference.  There are also many key mistakes players tend to make in auctions that leads to tons of value being left on the board.
I'm genuinely interested. would you mind listing your top three for the bolded here? i'm sure i'm guilty of more than a few.

 
I'm genuinely interested. would you mind listing your top three for the bolded here? i'm sure i'm guilty of more than a few.
I'm in many $300-$1,000 buy-in auctions with people on these boards. Not going to give away my hard work for free. But I will say that of any format, deep-flex Auction leagues have been a massive money-maker for me over the years. Player valuation and execution during the draft are generally awful.  Do some leg-work and you put in some work yourself.

 
Phenomena said:
I'm in many $300-$1,000 buy-in auctions with people on these boards. Not going to give away my hard work for free. But I will say that of any format, deep-flex Auction leagues have been a massive money-maker for me over the years. Player valuation and execution during the draft are generally awful.  Do some leg-work and you put in some work yourself.
:tebow:

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
I think you are completely missing the point of auction valuation if you think the total sum of those 192 players should be $2400. And if you're looking for such a valuation, then I think you should read up on auctions some more in terms of strategy and preparation. There are a few threads on this board and all prior year conversations on this topic should be useful in this context. I don't mean to criticize or berate, but i'm surprised at the math you are trying to apply.
I'm not really missing the point of auction valuation at all.  But if someone is going to use a spreadsheet with values as a tool to assist in their auction, then as a STARTING POINT, the auction values for the top 192 players (in a 12x16 league) should absolutely equal the total league budget.

To be clear, the spreadsheet is just one tool in an auction; it's not the 10 Commandments.  But if one is going to use it as a tool (or publish it on their website as a tool), it might as well at least be arithmetically correct to start.  That doesn't prevent the user from then adjusting the tool to account for league tendencies, a preference for studs/duds versus balance, positional preferences, early surprises, etc.

 
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I'm not really missing the point of auction valuation at all.  But if someone is going to use a spreadsheet with values as a tool to assist in their auction, then as a STARTING POINT, the auction values for the top 192 players (in a 12x16 league) should absolutely equal the total league budget.

To be clear, the spreadsheet is just one tool in an auction; it's not the 10 Commandments.  But if one is going to use it as a tool (or publish it on their website as a tool), it might as well at least be arithmetically correct to start.
I use my own spreadsheet for making auction values that fit my league's setting and the totals do not come out exactly.  It's meant to give me an idea of what the value for players are, not the exact price they should all go for.  I have more players with an auction value than will actually get drafted.  Some players have a dollar value even though they may not get drafted.

 
Since I don't use a computer during the auction, I try to create a realistic auction spreadsheet as follows:  (1) have the last year or two's auctions as a model, as far as allocation of dollars among the positions, and for distribution among the players at those positions (this may be available from the league site and/or its commish); (2) use the Excel app on here, as updated regularly, but this is the important part---keep playing with the the starting position and flex settings so that it results in a spreadsheet that will look something like the league's historic auction results, especially at the top quarter or so of the auction (for instance, if QB values looks low, instead of having teams start 1 QB, have them start 1.5); (3) look at rankings and ADP in allocating dollars, decreasing the dollar value of players as you down the position lists, pushing extra dollars towards players you like and taking extra ones away from players you don't at that ADP; if the last 30 or so players taken usually go for $1, have your list mirror that.  For ADP, focus on similar leagues; I'm in a 16-team redraft auction, which results in QB values higher than normal,so I look at the ADP from recent 16-team drafts.

 

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