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Ignoratio Elenchi

2018 FBG Subscriber Contest

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6 hours ago, Jersey Jammer said:

It is a great contest and am always eager to do it, but will be about a week and a half later than ever for some reason. The setting of salaries shouldn't be any different this year than prior years, but oh well......  

For sure it helps to be later in setting salaries. We know a little more each day after camp. Of course it's a balance though. We know even more at Labor Day. But that's of course way too late to start the contest. I think it'll be good this year. 

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Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

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6 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

Probably more of a question of percentages.  Is the rate of subscriber contest entry 97% or 67%?  97% would not be surprising at all because humans are weird.  67% would slide the evaluation to more so to stupid / less so to weird.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

I think it'll be good this year. 

I think the point is the contest is already great every year.  And it's always launched by now-ish.  (Not exactly apples to apples but DraftKings launched week 1 NFL contests already and they have more to lose if their salaries are messed up than FBG.)  I obviously trust you guys to do it right as always, but I also agree with the earlier poster that this is what I look forward to in early August every year.  By mid-August I have real season-long drafts to start focusing on.  

Just now, Joe Bryant said:

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

Not surprised that they all don't, but agree that they should.  Not sure what your subscription numbers are like so I don't know what it is in percentage terms.  I assume some % of your users don't even know it exists; some others see it but forget to enter before the deadline; some others see it and just decide that they can't win without putting in more effort than they're willing to spend.  Seems like a no-brainer to me to dump an entry in even if you don't spend more than a minute putting it together. 

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I always thought FBG could monetize this. Could create two contests - keep this one as is, free for subscribers, but create a duplicate that costs maybe $20 - $30 to join, so you could submit multiple entries. The IT infrastructure should exist to support this since you're already doing it (so low maintenance cost) with an incremental cost to FBG to manage the payment and disbursement process. Might not be a big windfall for FBG, but something is there if you get 5,000 - 7,000 entries. I'm guessing it wouldn't bastardize the FFPC/FBG contests to a significant degree, if any.  

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

It sure surprises me.  I am less and less into F.F. now down to two teams.  This contest really for me is the most enjoyable part of the season.  I will probably drop my last two leagues next year but will still subscribe because of the contest.

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8 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

I always thought FBG could monetize this. Could create two contests - keep this one as is, free for subscribers, but create a duplicate that costs maybe $20 - $30 to join, so you could submit multiple entries. The IT infrastructure should exist to support this since you're already doing it (so low maintenance cost) with an incremental cost to FBG to manage the payment and disbursement process. Might not be a big windfall for FBG, but something is there if you get 5,000 - 7,000 entries. I'm guessing it wouldn't bastardize the FFPC/FBG contests to a significant degree, if any.  

Multiple entry contests attract Wall street guys with their programs and you'll see them take 80% of the money.
This is why daily fantasy stuff is a suckers bet.

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2 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

Are they in states that don't allow prizes? Or just don't enter. 

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6 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

Shhhh.  They might hear you.

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7 hours ago, nightmare said:

Multiple entry contests attract Wall street guys with their programs and you'll see them take 80% of the money.
This is why daily fantasy stuff is a suckers bet.

There are a few sharps who make a living out of it, but roster caps have changed the dynamics quite a bit versus 2016 and earlier.  With limited modelling and bankroll management it doesn't have to be a suckers bet hobby....I view it like playing blackjack at the casinos....define what your willing to lose and have fun...maybe with a big day here and there.

 

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5 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

There are a few sharps who make a living out of it, but roster caps have changed the dynamics quite a bit versus 2016 and earlier.  With limited modelling and bankroll management it doesn't have to be a suckers bet hobby....I view it like playing blackjack at the casinos....define what your willing to lose and have fun...maybe with a big day here and there.

 

Those "few" sharps enter 100+ times versus what? your 10 entries? I'll go up against anybody in a single entry
contest of any size. Your Blackjack reference would be comparable if you were facing 10 dealers. 

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10 minutes ago, nightmare said:

Those "few" sharps enter 100+ times versus what? your 10 entries? I'll go up against anybody in a single entry
contest of any size. Your Blackjack reference would be comparable if you were facing 10 dealers. 

Well, I just got onto Draftkings again this week and their big $2 million tourney has a cap of 20 entries. Now I assume there will be some big tourneys like that in the future that have unlimited entries, but they only came online for 2018 recently. So they only have a couple you can get into. 

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5 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Well, I just got onto Draftkings again this week and their big $2 million tourney has a cap of 20 entries. Now I assume there will be some big tourneys like that in the future that have unlimited entries, but they only came online for 2018 recently. So they only have a couple you can get into. 

With this Subscriber contest not being released until mid-August vs the July, early August they committed to, the numbers of participants and interest will be down as it would be if they open it up to paid entries. By that point fantasy players are focused on other things - their drafts, preparing for daily contests, etc... so the overall #s would shrink considerably. If the goal with the subscriber contest is to generate a lot of interest and encourage everyone to play they messed up this year. Still not a clear reason why - they stated themselves it would be open late July, early August, not mid-August.

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15 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

Being a resident in the UK and therefore not eligible for any prizes is the main reason that i've never given the subscriber contest any consideration, despite being a subscriber for a few years now <_<

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6 hours ago, nightmare said:

Those "few" sharps enter 100+ times versus what? your 10 entries? I'll go up against anybody in a single entry
contest of any size. Your Blackjack reference would be comparable if you were facing 10 dealers. 

Don't want to derail the thread but there are lots of single entry DFS contests out there if that's where you think you have an edge.  It's a winnable game and only a "sucker bet" if you don't know what you're doing (which, granted, is true of many users, which is why it's a winnable game).  There are also mass multi-entry contests with like $0.25 entry fee, so if you think all you need to do to win is put in 100+ entries, there's a fairly inexpensive way to test your hypothesis.  

Edited by Ignoratio Elenchi

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58 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

. Still not a clear reason why - they stated themselves it would be open late July, early August, not mid-August.

I like that it opens in mid August, the timing seems right to me to try to minimize any big changes to player values though they clearly still happen (Hunt, Foster come to mind). But why would they say it was coming out in July? I missed that comment but that would have been a big mistake imo.

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8 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I like that it opens in mid August, the timing seems right to me to try to minimize any big changes to player values though they clearly still happen (Hunt, Foster come to mind). But why would they say it was coming out in July? I missed that comment but that would have been a big mistake imo.

If you look under Contests - "Sit tight. The 2018 contest will open in late July or early August". The past 4 years it was released 8/1, 8/2, 8/3 & 8/4. It's not the end of the world here - am just stating it's changing this year after saying it would be released the same time as the prior 4 years without explaining why. If it was just to get more accurate pricing why decide that after you say it's coming out the same time as prior years?

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2 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

If you look under Contests - "Sit tight. The 2018 contest will open in late July or early August". The past 4 years it was released 8/1, 8/2, 8/3 & 8/4. It's not the end of the world here - am just stating it's changing this year after saying it would be released the same time as the prior 4 years without explaining why. If it was just to get more accurate pricing why decide that after you say it's coming out the same time as prior years?

I apologize. That's our error on the words on the website there. It should have said Mid August there. 

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2 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

why decide that after you say it's coming out the same time as prior years?

I love FBGs, been a subscriber for ~15 years or so probably.  I have lots of good things to say about their product, but meeting their own deadlines has never really been one of them.

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14 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

 

16 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

If you look under Contests - "Sit tight. The 2018 contest will open in late July or early August". The past 4 years it was released 8/1, 8/2, 8/3 & 8/4. It's not the end of the world here - am just stating it's changing this year after saying it would be released the same time as the prior 4 years without explaining why. If it was just to get more accurate pricing why decide that after you say it's coming out the same time as prior years?

I apologize. That's our error on the words on the website there. It should have said Mid August there. 

 

"I should have said, it wouldn't be open in late July or early August."

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17 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

Wait until you see the drop off this year, starting it later.  Of course, I guess that increases the odds of the hard-core contest guys, so thanks, Joe.

 

Seriously, though, my guess would be a combination of guys who legally can't win the money and "life".  For example, the commissioner of my main league is a subscriber.  He's knowledgeable and active, and spends lots of time doing his Commish duties, in addition to following all the normal FF developments. Traditionally, we've compared rosters on the league chatboard and followed each other's teams (along with 2 or 3 other guys there who are subscribers). Two years ago when I posted my roster, his response was "oh, crap, I was so busy, I forgot to get my entry in." Last year, I jokingly sent a reminder a few days before the deadline, more to rub in the fact that he had forgotten than to actually remind him.  His response? "Wow, thanks! I threw together a lineup when it first came out, then got wrapped up in other stuff and forgot to get back to it. I'll do that now." 

Edited by apalmer
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18 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

Question for you guys while we're talking about this. 

Does it surprise you that not every single subscriber submits an entry? 

That always amazes me. You guys obviously realize how great the contest is. But the fact so many people subscribe and never enter the contest is just amazing to me.

But good for you guys. 

If I'm honest I believe I went years not knowing it existed.

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On 8/3/2018 at 5:59 AM, msudaisy26 said:

What is worse, waiting forbthe contest to open or the 7165 times I will change my lineup?

All the would be comedians telling the same joke about how the contest is live.

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2 hours ago, apalmer said:

Wait until you see the drop off this year, starting it later.  Of course, I guess that increases the odds of the hard-core contest guys, so thanks, Joe.

 

Seriously, though, my guess would be a combination of guys who legally can't win the money and "life".  For example, the commissioner of my main league is a subscriber.  He's knowledgeable and active, and spends lots of time doing his Commish duties, in addition to following all the normal FF developments. Traditionally, we've compared rosters on the league chatboard and followed each other's teams (along with 2 or 3 other guys there who are subscribers). Two years ago when I posted my roster, his response was "oh, crap, I was so busy, I forgot to get my entry in." Last year, I jokingly sent a reminder a few days before the deadline, more to rub in the fact that he had forgotten than to actually remind him.  His response? "Wow, thanks! I threw together a lineup when it first came out, then got wrapped up in other stuff and forgot to get back to it. I'll do that now." 

If the prior participation rate was about 90 - 95%, my guess it will be about 75% this year because of the late release. It'll be be interesting to see. The improvements might be worth the wait but will have to wait to judge. In late August the more casual FFers could be distracted by other things - vacations, the holiday, planning for the start of school, doing redrafts, etc.... so could result in a 20% decline? I'd be pleasantly surprised if it stayed at the same high level of participation. 

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On 8/4/2018 at 6:49 AM, Jersey Jammer said:

Regardless of the reason, I'm just asking for transparency.

Maybe you should file a FOIA request.

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3 hours ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

I love FBGs, been a subscriber for ~15 years or so probably.  I have lots of good things to say about their product, but meeting their own deadlines has never really been one of them.

This is the absolute truth. No matter how many times Joe has said it will improve. One area improves one year, but the same year another area fails. Next year it will be the same story just in a different area or contest, except big money events of course. 

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So can someone please explain to me the whole 20 kicker strategy?

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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

So can someone please explain to me the whole 20 kicker strategy?

Kicker scoring is hard to predict. On any given Sunday some kicker is going to kick a bunch of FGs but you never know which one it’s going to be. Take all the kickers. Get all the points. Win all the monies. 

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6 minutes ago, Chaka said:

So can someone please explain to me the whole 20 kicker strategy?

I am in a good mood today, so I will be honest.

Odds are the teams with 20 kickers, 20 defenses, 20 tight ends etc are people that are in states that won't allow them to win prizes. I have to admit if my state was that way and I still got a subscription or won a lifetime and then my state changed the rule I would do the same thing just to see how far it would go.

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4 hours ago, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

I love FBGs, been a subscriber for ~15 years or so probably.  I have lots of good things to say about their product, but meeting their own deadlines has never really been one of them.

That was an issue until about 5 years ago. You guys talked and we listened and we dramatically changed how we do things. For the last several years, we've done an excellent job of consistently hitting the weekly stated deadlines for the content each week. We have plenty of things we can improve on. But hitting weekly deadlines is not one of them. 

The contest opening date words was an error on my part. We wrote that back when the site opened up in the spring. But the "don't hit the weekly deadlines" thing is an old issue that we addressed and solved. If you ever see us not hitting a weekly deadline, please let me know directly at bryant@footballguys.com

 

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Agreed Joe. All those weekly deliverables during the season are always timely, often ahead of schedule. I can't think of anything else late, and I'm probably on the site 5 X a day when the season starts. 

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19 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

Agreed Joe. All those weekly deliverables during the season are always timely, often ahead of schedule. I can't think of anything else late, and I'm probably on the site 5 X a day when the season starts. 

Thank you. And hopefully we'll have the contest ready this week sooner than later. 

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2 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Thank you. And hopefully we'll have the contest ready this week sooner than later. 

Any chance D Dodd's expands the player pool? I like using all 30 spots
where that 4th string RB might blow up for 2 weeks.

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I'd like to see the bye weeks included. Dodds has said he's concerned many would mistake that for the player's price, but that's on the participant, just like they need to be accountable for following all the other instructions.  

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14 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

I'd like to see the bye weeks included. Dodds has said he's concerned many would mistake that for the player's price, but that's on the participant, just like they need to be accountable for following all the other instructions.  

Yes, I hear you. I do know David feels pretty strongly about that though. It's one of those user interface things. Even though it's on the user to be responsible, we try to eliminate as many possible errors as possible. Every year, I get a fair number of people who did something wrong on their end. Some acknowledge it. Most don't. But all are bummed out. And for us, it's a bummer. All I'm trying to do is give away $35,000. I don't want anyone to be bummed. So we try to head stuff off like that when we can. 

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20 minutes ago, Jersey Jammer said:

I'd like to see the bye weeks included. Dodds has said he's concerned many would mistake that for the player's price, but that's on the participant, just like they need to be accountable for following all the other instructions.  

Users need to be accountable for knowing the bye weeks too. I’m strongly against including them on the entry form. 

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I sent over pricing to Doug.  He will load up the numbers tonight and our staff will try to break the contest on Monday.  

The contest is expected to debut on Tuesday morning.

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1 hour ago, David Dodds said:

I sent over pricing to Doug.  He will load up the numbers tonight and our staff will try to break the contest on Monday.  

The contest is expected to debut on Tuesday morning.

So we can expect it Thursday then?

.

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I kid, I kid

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That's cool, boss doesn't want us to be productive in August anyway. 

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3 hours ago, David Dodds said:

I sent over pricing to Doug.  He will load up the numbers tonight and our staff will try to break the contest on Monday.  

The contest is expected to debut on Tuesday morning.

Omgomgomgomgomg!

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19 hours ago, David Dodds said:

I sent over pricing to Doug.  He will load up the numbers tonight and our staff will try to break the contest on Monday.  

The contest is expected to debut on Tuesday morning.

Lol poor Joe.  He had to play bad cop for 2 pages then good cop comes strolling in :)

Edited to add:  thanks to you both.  And Doug.  And the universe.

#happyaddict

 

Edited by SeniorVBDStudent
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2 hours ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Lol poor Joe.  He had to play bad cop for 2 pages then good cop comes strolling in :)

Edited to add:  thanks to you both.  And Doug.  And the universe.

#happyaddict

 

Ha. No worries there. I've just learned over the years to make sure we can hit the deadlines I promise. Hope to have it ready for tomorrow. Enjoy. It's another tough one. 

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