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Ignoratio Elenchi

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"We're onto week 2"

 

191.4 -  4,727 place.  Very high scoring week for everyone.  High cut number compared to years past I believe.

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19 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Hit with big injuries week 1- Fournette,Walker,Goodwin

If I were you, I'd still start all three of them in week 2

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And here is your first place team after one week: Entry 101815

 

D Brees,J Goff

J Conner,T Gurley,S Barkley,C Carson

M Thomas,T Hill,J Gordon,K Cole

J Cook,R Gronkowski

G Zuerlein,K Fairbairn,H Butker

Ravens,Steelers,Packers

 

Talk about domination.  This is what an 18 teamer can do when the planets align.  It will be interesting to see how this team does each week.  Week 12 will be a difficult with zero room for error or injury. 

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12 minutes ago, HairySasquatch said:

And here is your first place team after one week: Entry 101815

 

D Brees,J Goff

J Conner,T Gurley,S Barkley,C Carson

M Thomas,T Hill,J Gordon,K Cole

J Cook,R Gronkowski

G Zuerlein,K Fairbairn,H Butker

Ravens,Steelers,Packers

 

Talk about domination.  This is what an 18 teamer can do when the planets align.  It will be interesting to see how this team does each week.  Week 12 will be a difficult with zero room for error or injury. 

Just not enough depth here for staying power. He almost has to be injury free all season and Bell has to stay away.

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1 hour ago, HairySasquatch said:

And here is your first place team after one week: Entry 101815

 

D Brees,J Goff

J Conner,T Gurley,S Barkley,C Carson

M Thomas,T Hill,J Gordon,K Cole

J Cook,R Gronkowski

G Zuerlein,K Fairbairn,H Butker

Ravens,Steelers,Packers

 

Talk about domination.  This is what an 18 teamer can do when the planets align.  It will be interesting to see how this team does each week.  Week 12 will be a difficult with zero room for error or injury. 

Too top heavy IMO. Vulnerable to injuries and bye weeks.

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Looks like 26 man rosters were the sweet spot for week #1 with a 94.18% survival rate and of course 18 the lowest with 87.71%.

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1 hour ago, Elevencents said:

199.2 first week. Kicking myself for dropping Hill and Gronk on the last day for extra depth. 

Why?  Did they pay out this week?

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how do you see player ownership % - numbers at calcomatic?

Curious how many had

Olsen

Walker

Olsen + walker :unsure:

Edited by JoeSteeler

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Luckily I paid for the extreme package and get to drop Olsen and add Will Dissly $$$$$ :shark:

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4363 Rank 193.15. Pretty happy with that considering my team was dependent on Conner and Jared Cook this week. Pretty low scoring from my other guys.

Looks like I lost Olsen but glad I went with 4 TEs for that very reason. Maybe I can tread water until he gets back, we will see

 

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7 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Sorry.

 

Link to roster.

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/109485.php

Almost every year I get busy with stuff just before the deadline so no last minute tweaks. Goose eggs from Goodwin and Clay sunk me, as did Fournette and Freeman getting dinged 

Edited by heckmanm

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Is it bad when you build your roster to have flex scoring come from the RB and TE positions, both your flex scores come from the WR position, and your WR1 is not part of your scoring?

The Turk is nowhere in sight but I can smell his fetid breath.

 

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Just now, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Is it bad when you build your roster to have flex scoring come from the RB and TE positions, both your flex scores come from the WR position, and your WR1 is not part of your scoring?

The Turk is nowhere in sight but I can smell his fetid breath.

 

Neither my WR1, QB1, TE1, K1 or D1  scored enough to count this week. Luckily, I got 4 good scores from my RBs and enough cheap guys scoring to get me to 200 points.

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255.80 and 16th this week. I suppose this is a good sign that the squad has upside, but the extra points don't count yet! Survive and advance. 

Given week 1 results, a couple of potential regrets:

Thought there were going to be too many mouths to feed in TB and faded Godwin. He should be a super value at $6.

Ryan (and consequently Hooper) are looking sketchy  - think my potential Ryan swaps were Big Ben or Stafford, so not sure those would be better decisions with what we know now.

Quote

Prior to seeing pricing, my biases were to target 23-25 players and try to go light on RBs. Final roster hit the high end of the # of players, but spent more on RB then I planned on. It looks like I have 12 of top 18 most commonly owned players, so took value where I though it made sense and then built around it.

Matt Ryan  $13  8.75%

Patrick Mahomes II  $11  28.07%

Andy Dalton  $6  19.60%

Dalton is a screaming value to me. I had various iterations without him though since I didn't know if it made sense with ideal roster construction. For example, had Roethlisberger and Ryan only for a while. Hesitated on Mahomes given playoff schedule, but rostering 3 QBs made that more palatable. 

David Johnson  $34  12.40%

Mark Ingram  $20  4.50%

Peyton Barber  $8  41.12%

Matt Breida  $8  26.99%

James Conner  $4  35.84%

Rod Smith  $3  1.98%

Surprised Ingram didn't get more love. The first few weeks *should* be relatively easy to get through and his pricing seems relatively attractive compared to other comparable PPG RBs. Wasn't necessarily planning on a top-end RB, but DJ's projected points per $ seemed like a better bet than slightly cheaper options. More generally, didn't like the value proposition of RBs in the 20s and high-teens. I don't love Breida and Barber, but thought I better have them in case they blow up and should provide decent baseline production to hold me over for Ingram and bye weeks. Was planning on Conner even before Bell didn't report, so think I would have preferred Bell to show up - basically a potential injury play for late in the year. Similar rationale on Rod Smith.

Julio Jones  $32  3.70%

Tyreek Hill  $23  18.50%

Keelan Cole  $7  36.48%

Michael Gallup  $6  15.09%

John Brown  $6  21.05%

John Ross  $5  24.43%

Jeremy Kerley  $2  0.97%

Started with the cheap guys then picked a couple higher priced guys that should provide some consistency/upside. There seemed to be a lot of good value propositions in <$10 range this year so was hard to trim that list. I like the ownership % on Julio. 

Rob Gronkowski  $26  15.43%

Jared Cook  $8  4.63%

Austin Hooper  $8  9.80%

Played around with various iterations here. Originally was going to go 4 TEs in the sub-$15 range. Figured I might have more weekly upside (and downside) if I went with a top-3 guy and 2 mid-range guys. Surprised on Kelce's ownership relative to Gronk - might have swapped them if I knew those figures. 

Ryan Succop  $4  2.54%

Adam Vinatieri  $3  16.65%

Kaimi Fairbairn  $2  18.33%

Wanted to go cheap here and largely succeeded. Ironically, the 4 AFC south kickers were my top 4 candidates. 

Chicago Bears  $5  26.26%

Tennessee Titans  $4  5.07%

Cleveland Browns  $2  22.17%

Bit on the Bears after the Mack trade, Browns are obvious cheap play. Titans seemed like a decent dart throw.

 

QB  $30

RB  $77

WR  $81

TE  $42

K  $9

D  $11

 

Edited by cdubz
Taking out request for way to make quote collapsible

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5 hours ago, JoeSteeler said:

how do you see player ownership % - numbers at calcomatic?

Curious how many had

Olsen

Walker

Olsen + walker :unsure:

I'm one of the 12 that had both.....I did make it through this week but only a matter of time.....

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7 hours ago, ponchsox said:

Glad I have Jared Cook as part of my cheap 4 TE. Olsen and Walker owners will likely be knocked out fairly quickly.

This is why I opted to spend down at the TE position. It's the most pts per dollar spent, but also the most injury prone. 

If Gronk, Reed, Kelce, Ertz, Graham all make it through the entire season unsullied, then hats off to the teams that spent up. 

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

This is why I opted to spend down at the TE position. It's the most pts per dollar spent, but also the most injury prone. 

If Gronk, Reed, Kelce, Ertz, Graham all make it through the entire season unsullied, then hats off to the teams that spent up. 

Seeing as how Graham is currently wrapped in bubble wrap, its hard to imagine him getting hurt.

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

This is why I opted to spend down at the TE position. It's the most pts per dollar spent, but also the most injury prone. 

Hard to ignore the 1.5 PPR. But the position is so volatile, I couldn't bring myself to spend a ton at the position. 

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QB - Matthew Stafford - DET/6 - $15  7.60%  (used 0)

QB - Philip Rivers - LAC/8 - $13  19.10%  #16 Owned (used 1)

QB - Andy Dalton - CIN/9 - $6  19.60%  #15 Owned (used 0)

Feeling good about this group overall - Rivers put up a very nice number as did Dalton.  Stafford had a terrible game and still managed almost 17 points.  I think this week overall will be typical with one guy popping up with a good number.

RB - Ezekiel Elliott - DAL/8 - $35  7.89% (used 1)

RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26  28.40%  #6 Owned (used 1)

RB - Royce Freeman - DEN/10 - $16  35.08%  #5 Owned

RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8  41.12%   #1 Owned

RB - James Conner - PIT/7 - $4  35.84%  #4 Owned (used 1)

RB - John Kelly - LAR/12 - $3  3.76%

RB - Jeremy Hill - NE/11 - $3  8.72%

Needless to say I am glad that I found the $4 for Conner at the last moment (and the fact that Doctson who I got rid of did nothing is a bonus).  Hill tearing his ACL is terrible news - I really think he would have contributed.  Kelly on the other hand was a healthy scratch and I get the feeling this was $ wasted.  I need to stop pull-tabbing on cheap RBs (Conner was an overlay and is different than the others).  Barber is enhanced by the fact that Jones clearly has buried himself.  Freeman shared too much.  With Zeke and McC I worry that I took guys with bad lines.  Definitely regret ditching Mixon.

 

WR - Marvin Jones - DET/6 - $20  5.03% (0 used)

WR - Marquise Goodwin - SF/11 - $13  36.70%  #2 Owned (0 used)

WR - Michael Gallup - DAL/8 - $6  15.09%  #31 Owned (0 used)

WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6  13.86%  #35 Owned (1 used)

WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6  21.05%  #13 Owned (1 used)

WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/9 - $5  7.48% (0 used)

WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5  24.43%  #11 Owned (0 used)

WR - Chad Williams - ARI/9 - $3  0.67% (0 used)

WR - Phillip Dorsett - NE/11 - $2  12.26%  #45 Owned (1 used)

They got the job done and it was without the top two cost guys contributing.  Dorsett has me feeling good - even with whatever guys they drag in I think he's gonna keep getting targets.  Happy Ross got an endzone target though he only got 2 overall.  I think he'll be boom/bust.  Glad Goodwin's injury seems like it is short term.  Jones getting less targets than Golliday and Tate is concerning but I hope that is a matter of matchups.  Hope Gallup wasn't a waste.  Same for Chad Williams.  Crossing my fingers this group will work out.

 

TE - Trey Burton - CHI/5 - $14  25.58%  #10 Owned (0 used)

TE - David Njoku - CLE/11 - $12  20.08%  #14 Owned (0 used)

TE - Ricky Seals-Jones - ARI/9 - $7  10.52%  #60 Owned (1 used)

TE - Nick Vannett - SEA/7 - $3  3.06% (0 used)

An iffy day for this group but some things were encouraging.  Seals-Jones got an endzone target and Burton had a total of 6 targets with an endzone look or 2 even though he only had one catch.  Same story with Njoku - 7 targets with only 3 catches.  Vannett not so much but hopefully that is an anomaly.

 

PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $4  16.93%  #23 Owned

PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3  13.67%  #37 Owned

PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2  18.33%  #18 Owned

All 3 scored just under 10 points.  Hope that is a floor for this group.  Most importantly no misses and no injuries.

 

TD - Jets - Jets/11 - $3  2.97% (1 used)

TD - Cincinnati Bengals - CIN/9 - $3  7.77% (0 used)

TD - Oakland Raiders - OAK/7 - $2  7.11% (0 used)

TD - Cleveland Browns - CLE/11 - $2  22.17%  #12 Owned (0 used)

This group has me feeling great.  I stuck with these 4 through most of my iterations (generally stick with 3 but with the Jets and Browns having the same bye I snuck in the cheap Raiders.  The 3 I felt were huge overlays (Bengals, Jets, and Browns) all pulled through.  Oakland - not so much and I will admit that trading Mack had me thinking about dumping them. but as it turns out the Dolphins also have a week 11 bye and the Colts (besides being totally suspect) have the same bye as the Bengals so I stuck with Oakland.  Anyway couldn't be happier with this group.

-QG

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Some notable teams and players of the week (ignoring staff entries).

QBs: There were 14 teams with 14 or more QBs. All of them were eliminated in week 1. Entry 105220 is the only one of the four 13-QB teams to survive.

RBs: There is only one 13-RB team, Entry 114601, and that team survived.

WRs: Both 16-WR teams (Entry 105027 and Entry 101917) survived.

TEs: The only 9-TE team, Entry 105020, survived.

PKs: All three 22-K teams were eliminated. However, the only 19-K team, Entry 100153, survived.

DEFs: One team, Entry 114203, has 16 defenses, and survived. The team with 11 defenses, HUEDOS, was eliminated. Those are the only two entries with more than 9 Ds.

And now the players:

The Biggest Mistake: Ranking the players by percentage of entries rostering them who were eliminated, we find that the top 9 guys were all inactive this week for various reasons. The next guy is Doug Baldwin: 27% of the teams rostering him are now gone (only 10.5% of total teams have been eliminated). The 10 guys after Baldwin were all inactive. The first guy on this list who was active and didn’t get injured during the game is Rashaad Penny: 23% of his teams were eliminated.

The Survivor: Only one player had a 100% survival rate, meaning every team that rostered him is still alive. Unsurprisingly, it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.

More categories next week.

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7 minutes ago, jdkapow said:

Some notable teams and players of the week (ignoring staff entries).

QBs: There were 14 teams with 14 or more QBs. All of them were eliminated in week 1. Entry 105220 is the only one of the four 13-QB teams to survive.

RBs: There is only one 13-RB team, Entry 114601, and that team survived.

WRs: Both 16-WR teams (Entry 105027 and Entry 101917) survived.

TEs: The only 9-TE team, Entry 105020, survived.

PKs: All three 22-K teams were eliminated. However, the only 19-K team, Entry 100153, survived.

DEFs: One team, Entry 114203, has 16 defenses, and survived. The team with 11 defenses, HUEDOS, was eliminated. Those are the only two entries with more than 9 Ds.

And now the players:

The Biggest Mistake: Ranking the players by percentage of entries rostering them who were eliminated, we find that the top 9 guys were all inactive this week for various reasons. The next guy is Doug Baldwin: 27% of the teams rostering him are now gone (only 10.5% of total teams have been eliminated). The 10 guys after Baldwin were all inactive. The first guy on this list who was active and didn’t get injured during the game is Rashaad Penny: 23% of his teams were eliminated.

The Survivor: Only one player had a 100% survival rate, meaning every team that rostered him is still alive. Unsurprisingly, it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.

More categories next week.

Awesome stuff idk.

:subscribe:

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1 hour ago, jdkapow said:

Some notable teams and players of the week (ignoring staff entries).

QBs: There were 14 teams with 14 or more QBs. All of them were eliminated in week 1. Entry 105220 is the only one of the four 13-QB teams to survive.

RBs: There is only one 13-RB team, Entry 114601, and that team survived.

WRs: Both 16-WR teams (Entry 105027 and Entry 101917) survived.

TEs: The only 9-TE team, Entry 105020, survived.

PKs: All three 22-K teams were eliminated. However, the only 19-K team, Entry 100153, survived.

DEFs: One team, Entry 114203, has 16 defenses, and survived. The team with 11 defenses, HUEDOS, was eliminated. Those are the only two entries with more than 9 Ds.

And now the players:

The Biggest Mistake: Ranking the players by percentage of entries rostering them who were eliminated, we find that the top 9 guys were all inactive this week for various reasons. The next guy is Doug Baldwin: 27% of the teams rostering him are now gone (only 10.5% of total teams have been eliminated). The 10 guys after Baldwin were all inactive. The first guy on this list who was active and didn’t get injured during the game is Rashaad Penny: 23% of his teams were eliminated.

The Survivor: Only one player had a 100% survival rate, meaning every team that rostered him is still alive. Unsurprisingly, it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.

More categories next week.

More proof that wide receiver heavy rosters are where it's at.

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On ‎9‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 10:16 AM, ponchsox said:

Glad I have Jared Cook as part of my cheap 4 TE. Olsen and Walker owners will likely be knocked out fairly quickly.

I was originally rolling with only Olsen and Walker at TE before I switched it at the last minute for Njoku, Burton, and Antonio Gates.  They didn't exactly blow up for me, but at least they are healthy.

 

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2 hours ago, jdkapow said:

Some notable teams and players of the week (ignoring staff entries).

QBs: There were 14 teams with 14 or more QBs. All of them were eliminated in week 1. Entry 105220 is the only one of the four 13-QB teams to survive.

RBs: There is only one 13-RB team, Entry 114601, and that team survived.

WRs: Both 16-WR teams (Entry 105027 and Entry 101917) survived.

TEs: The only 9-TE team, Entry 105020, survived.

PKs: All three 22-K teams were eliminated. However, the only 19-K team, Entry 100153, survived.

DEFs: One team, Entry 114203, has 16 defenses, and survived. The team with 11 defenses, HUEDOS, was eliminated. Those are the only two entries with more than 9 Ds.

And now the players:

The Biggest Mistake: Ranking the players by percentage of entries rostering them who were eliminated, we find that the top 9 guys were all inactive this week for various reasons. The next guy is Doug Baldwin: 27% of the teams rostering him are now gone (only 10.5% of total teams have been eliminated). The 10 guys after Baldwin were all inactive. The first guy on this list who was active and didn’t get injured during the game is Rashaad Penny: 23% of his teams were eliminated.

The Survivor: Only one player had a 100% survival rate, meaning every team that rostered him is still alive. Unsurprisingly, it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick.

More categories next week.

Has anyone who has created one of these teams ever given their reasoning?  Is it just for fun to see how long they can survive or is there a method to the craziness?

 

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18 minutes ago, solorca said:

Has anyone who has created one of these teams ever given their reasoning?  Is it just for fun to see how long they can survive or is there a method to the craziness?

 

Have to assume most are created for fun, simply because they are not eligible for prizes in the state they live

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On 9/11/2018 at 7:16 AM, ponchsox said:

Glad I have Jared Cook as part of my cheap 4 TE. 

You're glad now, but he tends to disappear for large chunks of time.

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10 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

You're glad now, but he tends to disappear for large chunks of time.

I'm just glad I rostered 5, top stud being Burton.  I'll be happy with a decent score from just 1 each week, and if I can get a flex score here and there, great.

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37 minutes ago, ffweasel said:

226.50. Probably the highest I’ll score all season. Have a feeling my lack of WR depth will be my demise. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/100221.php

You don't have to score 200 to do well. I made the final 250 last year and only scored 200 one time. It was week 15

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Just now, ffweasel said:

226.50. Probably the highest I’ll score all season. Have a feeling my lack of WR depth will be my demise. 

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/100221.php

I would be more worried about the Week 12 bye situation: Mahomes, Gurley & Hill all out and Bell may be back, cutting into Conner's value, If those who are predicting an eventual takeover by Jones are right, Barber will also have limited value.  That would leave you with very limited options.

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Survived with 174.85 (http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/100602.php).

29 man rooster down to 26/27 with losing Jeremy Hill, Olsen, and possibly Fournette (2 of my top 3 spend).

Avg pts per $ spent for guys that counted:

  • QB: 3.99 (Dalton)
  • RB:  0.49 (McCaffrey :bag:), 0.85 (Carson), 8.43 (Conner :pickle:)
  • WR:  1.74 (Sanders), 2.18 (Godwin), 9.8 (Dorsett :pickle:)
  • TE:  0.54 (Rudolph)
  • PK:  5.25 (Rosas)
  • TD:  2.8 (Bears)

So not sure if this means anything, but when I run the stats for ALL positions and remove any position where there were 0s (Ingram, Goodwin, etc.) then it shows that after week 1, the best value per dollar spent on my rooster is QB, PK, and WR.  The worst per dollar spent was TE. 

On average, any position less than 1 is not good.  For my rooster, almost all of my RBs (except Conner) fell into that category, all TEs, and only 2 of my WRs.  Pretty sure that's not a good sign for the longevity of this rooster.  Hopefully the Turk avoids me for a few more weeks where I can come up with some more meaningless stats.

Edited by Saint

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On 9/10/2018 at 10:59 PM, Dr. Dan said:

 

 

 

so far so good

So far. Jared had a great game. Maybe the best of his career. I’ll still cast my lot w/ the 9 prior years of data and observations. 

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Looks like I may have lost Fournette for a bit. I guess this is the time of the year I’d prefer him to miss. Plus the time off will only make him stronger late season, right? 

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