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Ignoratio Elenchi

2018 FBG Subscriber Contest

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Hope a lot of Gronk owners are struggling today  :oldunsure:

 

Depth, baby.

Gronk, Jimmy Graham, ASJ, R Griffin

Gonna need Deshaun Watson to tighten up or Griffin won't contribute.

Not sure how Graham managed 6 for 95 against the Vikings as he's supposedly just a redzone target now....

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22 minutes ago, sooted72 said:

no you just need the right 2 TEs :/

But with guys like Gronk and Reed, you can't use just 2.  Injuries and games like today make it very difficult. In the case of Gronk, he is the most expensive TE, so not only do you have to spend big money to get him, you have to spend even more on extra TEs.

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36 minutes ago, Steeler said:

Similar to my team - currently at: 166.8

With one of: E. Elliott, M. Gallup, T. Burton, N. Vannett (-15)
And: Bears (-7)

Sweating the turk this week :( 

I just check calcomatic and the two most owned players remaining are Bears (27%) and Burton (25%) and the 4th most owned in Gallup (15%) so I feel a bit better about my chances.

http://calcomatic.com/PctActive

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1 QB with 6 TDs

7 QBs with 4 or more TDs

10 QBs with 3 or more TDs

17 QBs with 2 or more TDs

That is a lot of your higher cut line right there - esp with all TDs being 6 points.

-QG

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:bag: when you spend big on RBs and 5 of your WR score more than your top RB, who cost $4

But over 200 so can't complain.

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1 hour ago, Steeler said:

Similar to my team - currently at: 166.8

With one of: E. Elliott, M. Gallup, T. Burton, N. Vannett (-15)
And: Bears (-7)

Sweating the turk this week :( 

166 and in a similar boat...Prescott-Dalton, Elliot-8.6, Parkay or Rosas - 5.4, Bears or Cowboys - 7

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Ugh. Looks like I’m out. My WR1 is DJ Moore. Fournette and Gordon being out coupled w/ lackluster efforts from Crabtree, Keenan, Crowell, Eifert, Njoku, and my 3 PK just too much to overcome I’m afraid. I still have Carson and couple Defenses left, but I’m too far out barring something really odd. 

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6 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Ugh. Looks like I’m out. My WR1 is DJ Moore. Fournette and Gordon being out coupled w/ lackluster efforts from Crabtree, Keenan, Crowell, Eifert, Njoku, and my 3 PK just too much to overcome I’m afraid. I still have Carson and couple Defenses left, but I’m too far out barring something really odd. 

Forgot to include Sanu’s turd in the list.

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O Howard  A Hooper J Graham My 3 TE last week looked like I made a mistake, this week they will all count 18.5 or more

I tried to be unique here and am 1 of 3 with all 3 of them one is gone already so 2 of of left 

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MAN!!  How does a shut out get only 3 points?  1 Int & 1 Sack ...  but ZERO points allowed....  

Yeah, I know the scoring does not have anything for Points Against Scored....  but a Shutout?!!? 

 

Sitting 163 with Chi Def to go....  all those QB TD's are rocking the cut-off line (est 155).

 

 

Edited by Birdie048
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Missing the cut by 3 points. I have a shot, but may be out quickly this year. 

J Howard -7.4 (Connor 15, Wilkins 7.4). My RB have me in big trouble this year  

Burton -4.1 (I have 4 TEs, Burton, Goedert, Olson and Kroft). I really thought Eifert wasn’t going to play much this year  

 

 

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Whelp, instead of throwing panicky balls across the middle and downfield, Eli just locked onto Barkley. The. Entire. Game. Was hoping Dallas might be gifted an Eli pick-6 and/or strip-sack-6. Running out of delusional hope over here. 

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28 minutes ago, chocula said:

Missing the cut by 3 points. I have a shot, but may be out quickly this year. 

J Howard -7.4 (Connor 15, Wilkins 7.4). My RB have me in big trouble this year  

Burton -4.1 (I have 4 TEs, Burton, Goedert, Olson and Kroft). I really thought Eifert wasn’t going to play much this year  

 

 

Your in better shape then me by abit...

11 under the cut.....

Howard, Burton, Lockett -3 -5 and -7.5 each 

Bears D -7 

 

Insaine year for cheap QB’s throwing up massive scores!!! 

Edited by Foxer2373
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1 hour ago, Birdie048 said:

MAN!!  How does a shut out get only 3 points?  1 Int & 1 Sack ...  but ZERO points allowed....  

Yeah, I know the scoring does not have anything for Points Against Scored....  but a Shutout?!!? 

 

Sitting 163 with Chi Def to go....  all those QB TD's are rocking the cut-off line (est 155).

 

 

This is why I don't spend money on expensive defenses but instead go cheap and with volume.

Bad defenses actually can be attractive in this contest since they are on the field more and thus have more chances to do stuff.

-QG

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Just now, Foxer2373 said:

Your in better shape then me by abit...

11 under the cut.....

Howard and Burton -5 each 

Bears D -7 

 

Insaine year for cheap QB’s throwing up massive scores!!! 

The biggest mistake I saw in roster construction was teams paying too much money at QB.  Zero reason to spend big when you can platoon a few cheap options and still get big numbers.  

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18 minutes ago, Raback said:

The biggest mistake I saw in roster construction was teams paying too much money at QB.  Zero reason to spend big when you can platoon a few cheap options and still get big numbers.  

All my QB were fine this week. My QB4 had 20, my QB1 had 33. The problem for me is, when the rest of your team lays an egg you really need your QB1 to be an outlier, not one of many. A good QB score is basically a defensive thing this week. 

Edited by Tennessee_ATO
Stupid auto correct.

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Put too much thought into RB and eventually went TD heavy but picked the wrong one of Fournette and Gordon. Need Aaron Jones to make a statement when he is back if Fournette is gonna be battling the injury bug. 

R Freeman prob gonna be a letdown all season I.e. just mediocre numbers which won’t cut it. 

Edited by Elevencents

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Sitting comfortably (this week) at 30 points over the cut, despite my QBs not participating in the TD party (Alex Smith and his 16 points, Mariota on the bench, and whatever I get from Trubisky tonight).  Thank you Melvin Gordon, Travis Kelce, Keelan Cole, and Mason Crosby, who accounted for 106 of my 188 points.  

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8 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

All my QB were fine this week. My QB4 had 20, my QB1 had 33. The problem for me is, when the rest of your team lays an egg you really need your QB1 to be an outlier, not one of many. A good QB score is basically a defensive thing this week. 

Seems like you have too many QB's.

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8 points above the cut with Lockett (-4.50) left. Waiting for Ingram to be back from suspension is proving harder than I thought this year. Scored 14.4 combined points from my RBs this week with Peyton Barber, David Johnson, and Royce Freeman. 

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10 hours ago, QuizGuy66 said:

This is why I don't spend money on expensive defenses but instead go cheap and with volume.

Bad defenses actually can be attractive in this contest since they are on the field more and thus have more chances to do stuff.

-QG

I agree and I played a mix of Def ... LAR ($8), Clev ($2) & Chic ($5)....  and Cleveland 7 pts over shadowed Rams shutout. 

Not sure what Chicago Def will do at home vs Seattle....  but I don't see the Sea OL as stopping much....  looking for multiple sacks & TO! 

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10 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

All my QB were fine this week. My QB4 had 20, my QB1 had 33. The problem for me is, when the rest of your team lays an egg you really need your QB1 to be an outlier, not one of many. A good QB score is basically a defensive thing this week. 

Not saying you in particular but I was shaking my head seeing people with rosters that had a guy like Aaron Rodgers 

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3 hours ago, Thomas The Skank Engine said:

Seems like you have too many QB's.

I dropped $3 on Foles as a cheap dart that might provide uniqueness late. I was going to use that $3 on a Kelly dart (he’s legit awesome but is blocked by that Gurley fella) but I spent it on Foles instead b/c his path to PT late seemed less winding. 

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1 hour ago, Raback said:

Not saying you in particular but I was shaking my head seeing people with rosters that had a guy like Aaron Rodgers 

I’m with you there 100%. But I can understand someone wanting a guy who’s been through all the battles and had success. The way Rodgers was yucking it up on the sidelines in week 1 despite still needing the late TD drive to win was pretty amazing. There’s something to be said for having that dude on your team. 

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Just now, Tennessee_ATO said:

I’m with you there 100%. But I can understand someone wanting a guy who’s been through all the battles and had success. The way Rodgers was yucking it up on the sidelines in week 1 despite still needing the late TD drive to win was pretty amazing. There’s something to be said for having that dude on your team. 

Leadership like that is great in the NFL.  I doubt if it will help my fantasy team much, because it isn't likely he'll know whether I need a late TD drive or not.

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"Crazy" teams that will be moving on to week 3:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/112121.php  12 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/110209.php  2 QB, 12 RB, 9 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/102705.php  4 QB, 12 RB, 10 WR, 1 TE, 2 K, 1 D (he is hanging on by a thread)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101917.php  3 QB, 4 RB, 16 WR, 2 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105027.php  7 QB, 4 RB, 16 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105020.php  6 QB, 2 RB, 6 WR, 9 TE, 1 K, 1 D (3 above cut line with only Burton left)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101549.php  3 QB, 8 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 12 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/114203.php  4 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 TE, 1 K, 16 D

Which one is most shocking?  It has to be 16 D team.  How unique is his team?  The next most D's that will advance have only 8.  And he only has 2 RB's to boot!

The team with 9 TE's deserves a mention too, as he only has 2 RB's.

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Just now, TheWinz said:

"Crazy" teams that will be moving on to week 3:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/112121.php  12 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/110209.php  2 QB, 12 RB, 9 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/102705.php  4 QB, 12 RB, 10 WR, 1 TE, 2 K, 1 D (he is hanging on by a thread)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101917.php  3 QB, 4 RB, 16 WR, 2 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105027.php  7 QB, 4 RB, 16 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105020.php  6 QB, 2 RB, 6 WR, 9 TE, 1 K, 1 D (3 above cut line with only Burton left)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101549.php  3 QB, 8 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 12 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/114203.php  4 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 TE, 1 K, 16 D

Which one is most shocking?  It has to be 16 D team.  How unique is his team?  The next most D's that will advance have only 8.  And he only has 2 RB's to boot!

The team with 9 TE's deserves a mention too, as he only has 2 RB's.

9 TE team is almost as notable for having 6 QBs, including spending $48 on Rodgers and Brady, only to see $3 Fitzpatrick doing his scoring.

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Those are some truly UNIQUE rosters! 

Most Shocking IMO #112121 = 12 QB ($94 or 37.6% of budget) for only 1 of the 12 to be of value!  

It's like 8.25% chance using any 1 QB and wasting the other $86! 

 

 

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

"Crazy" teams that will be moving on to week 3:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/112121.php  12 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/110209.php  2 QB, 12 RB, 9 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/102705.php  4 QB, 12 RB, 10 WR, 1 TE, 2 K, 1 D (he is hanging on by a thread)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101917.php  3 QB, 4 RB, 16 WR, 2 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105027.php  7 QB, 4 RB, 16 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105020.php  6 QB, 2 RB, 6 WR, 9 TE, 1 K, 1 D (3 above cut line with only Burton left)

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101549.php  3 QB, 8 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 12 K, 1 D

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/114203.php  4 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 3 TE, 1 K, 16 D

Which one is most shocking?  It has to be 16 D team.  How unique is his team?  The next most D's that will advance have only 8.  And he only has 2 RB's to boot!

The team with 9 TE's deserves a mention too, as he only has 2 RB's.

How much time do you spend looking at other rosters? Serious question. :P

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Apparently Jeremy Kerley got released from the Bills after being targeted 5 times Week 1. Cool cool, there goes a possible stray TD off the board. Woof, this team sucks, but moving on.

Quote to original post with reasoning and roster within:

 
On 9/6/2018 at 0:49 PM, hagmania said:

Bortles, Blake - 7.62% - 9 - $8
Taylor, Tyrod - 6.25% - 11 - $7
Flacco, Joe - 10.61% - 10 - $5
Gordon, Melvin - 7.96% - 8 - $30
Hunt, Kareem - 5.28% - 12 - $29
Barber, Peyton - 41.12% - 5 - $8
Gore, Frank - 3.67% - 6 - $6
Conner, James - 35.84% - 7 - $4
Thomas, Michael - 6.64% - 6 - $31
Crowder, Jamison - 4.35% - 4 - $17
Nelson, Jordy - 4.45% - 7 - $13
Ridley, Calvin - 4.19% - 8 - $9
Richardson, Paul - 2.14% - 4 - $9
Miller, Anthony - 8.21% - 5 - $7
Kerley, Jeremy - 0.97% - 11 - $2
Kelce, Travis - 6.85% - 12 - $25
Walker, Delanie - 3.37% - 8 - $17
Eifert, Tyler - 12.25% - 9 - $9
Hopkins, Dustin - 7.55% - 4 - $3
Vinatieri, Adam - 16.65% - 9 - $3
Atlanta Falcons - 6.89% - 8 - $4
San Francisco 49ers - 2.09% - 11 - $4

 

Edited by hagmania

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2 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

I dropped $3 on Foles as a cheap dart that might provide uniqueness late. I was going to use that $3 on a Kelly dart (he’s legit awesome but is blocked by that Gurley fella) but I spent it on Foles instead b/c his path to PT late seemed less winding. 

I spent my last $3 on Foles too.

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2 hours ago, apalmer said:

Leadership like that is great in the NFL.  I doubt if it will help my fantasy team much, because it isn't likely he'll know whether I need a late TD drive or not.

Agree completely. But if I had to wager on a monster game in week 14 or 15, I’d take Rodgers over Maholmes. Mind you, I’d never actually pay for Rodgers in this format. I’m just saying I can see why someone would. 

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Just now, Tennessee_ATO said:

Agree completely. But if I had to wager on a monster game in week 14 or 15, I’d take Rodgers over Maholmes. Mind you, I’d never actually pay for Rodgers in this format. I’m just saying I can see why someone would. 

I understand why people do it, but as you said, in this format it doesn't make a lot of sense.  Yes, if it's a choice between Rodgers and Maholmes, Rodgers is more likely to have a big game.  But, it isn't between Rodgers and Maholmes.  It's between Rodgers and Maholmes/Dalton/Carr  or Maholmes/Goff/Keenum (or some other combo).  There's a much better chance one of 3 guys will match his output, not to even address an upgrade spent elsewhere with the few extra $$$.

Edited by apalmer

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1 hour ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Agree completely. But if I had to wager on a monster game in week 14 or 15, I’d take Rodgers over Maholmes. Mind you, I’d never actually pay for Rodgers in this format. I’m just saying I can see why someone would. 

Sure you’d take Rodgers over Mahomes.  But I’ll take my combo of Bortles/Keenum/Trubisky/Darnold over a Rodgers for a cheaper price.  

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#886 overall this week so far, with Chicago D, Burton, and Parkey to go. Key contributors this week:

Mahomes (backup of Ryan did pretty good too, but starting to question my #3 QB selection of Winston)

McCaffrey

Zeke

Clement

Diggs

Cole

OJ Howard

Edited by stubby
forgot other Chicago players

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2 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

Those are some truly UNIQUE rosters! 

Most Shocking IMO #112121 = 12 QB ($94 or 37.6% of budget) for only 1 of the 12 to be of value!  

It's like 8.25% chance using any 1 QB and wasting the other $86! 

 

 

After reading your post, it got me thinking.  Perhaps there is a mathematical formula for success here, or at least to maximize value.  We all kind of did this when choosing our rosters, as we chose our players based on cost vs potential output.  But how many people took the time to say, hey, if I can only use 1 QB's score, what score from my QB is acceptable?  Will 25 points each week be enough?  And how many QB's will I need to make that happen?

Not surprising, the sweet spot is 3 QB's.  Teams that rostered 2, 3, or 4 QB's all had a survival rate of 90%.  Here are the %'s for the others:  1 - 83%, 5 - 88%, 6 - 86%, 7 - 83%, 8 - 57%, 9 - 57%, 10 - 67%, 11 - 54%, 12 - 33%.  Also, not surprising, 12,674 (94%) of remaining teams have either 2 (4346), 3 (6279), or 4 (2049) QB's.

I just looked at all 250 teams that made it to the big show last year.  Guess how many of the 250 teams rostered either 2, 3, or 4 QB's?

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1 hour ago, Raback said:

Sure you’d take Rodgers over Mahomes.  But I’ll take my combo of Bortles/Keenum/Trubisky/Darnold over a Rodgers for a cheaper price.  

I agree with you, as I’ve said. I'm just saying I understand why someone would take Rodgers. 

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NamePosTeamPricePointsMatch

J FlaccoQBBAL5  29.60

R TannehillQBMIA6  24.80

N FolesQBPHI3  23.50

J AllenQBBUF3  19.45

J RosenQBARI5  0.00

B MayfieldQBCLE4  0.00

T GurleyRBLAR37  26.80RB

A CollinsRBBAL21  10.50RB

P BarberRBTB8  3.40

L MurrayRBMIN7  1.90

S WareRBKC6  0.30

K ColeWRJAX7  24.60WR

A CooperWROAK23  21.60WR

T HillWRKC23  20.00FL

C HoganWRNE17  19.20FL

A CallawayWRCLE3  17.80

M WallaceWRPHI5  1.00

J GrahamTEGB20  18.50TE

T BurtonTECHI14  0.00

M CrosbyPKGB4  21.20PK

J TuckerPKBAL6  7.50

H ButkerPKKC4  6.00

49ersDTSF4  4.00DT

VikingsDTMIN7  4.00

RamsDTLAR8  3.00

 

First time playing 196.00 (#3523) this week wishing I had more depth at RB

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239.55 with Bears D left to go. Ranked 49th. Wow. This might be my high water mark for the history of this contest.

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18 hours ago, QuizGuy66 said:

This is why I don't spend money on expensive defenses but instead go cheap and with volume.

 

7 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

I agree and I played a mix of Def ... LAR ($8), Clev ($2) & Chic ($5)

:lmao:

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3 hours ago, rugcleaner said:

NamePosTeamPricePointsMatch

J FlaccoQBBAL5  29.60

R TannehillQBMIA6  24.80

N FolesQBPHI3  23.50

J AllenQBBUF3  19.45

J RosenQBARI5  0.00

B MayfieldQBCLE4  0.00

T GurleyRBLAR37  26.80RB

A CollinsRBBAL21  10.50RB

P BarberRBTB8  3.40

L MurrayRBMIN7  1.90

S WareRBKC6  0.30

K ColeWRJAX7  24.60WR

A CooperWROAK23  21.60WR

T HillWRKC23  20.00FL

C HoganWRNE17  19.20FL

A CallawayWRCLE3  17.80

M WallaceWRPHI5  1.00

J GrahamTEGB20  18.50TE

T BurtonTECHI14  0.00

M CrosbyPKGB4  21.20PK

J TuckerPKBAL6  7.50

H ButkerPKKC4  6.00

49ersDTSF4  4.00DT

VikingsDTMIN7  4.00

RamsDTLAR8  3.00

 

First time playing 196.00 (#3523) this week wishing I had more depth at RB

I have a feeling your WR's will carry you as far as you go.  Good luck

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