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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (4 Viewers)

8 points up with Barkley going tonight. Like my chances.

Pretty satisfied with my team thus far. Surviving some slumps and injuries. Worried about my WRs as several haven't really done as well as I thought they would. Hopefully a strong second half from some of them. 

 
24 pts above the cut without any players tonight.  I think I should be good but who knows.  My lowest scoring week by far even though my team isn't great.

 
24 pts above the cut without any players tonight.  I think I should be good but who knows.  My lowest scoring week by far even though my team isn't great.
I'm in about the same position.  

My TEs really came through this week (Burton, Goedert, and even Watson).

 
I’m +14.9 and done. Odds I get through?
Probably unless it is a really high scoring game tonight NYG at ATL.  Neither have much of a Def, but NYG offense is hit/miss.  

If shootout (>58 total maybe), line might climb 9 pts or so.  This is still the lowest Cut Line so far...so you are good! 

Line sitting at ~ 135 right now but some big names to play (Matt Ryan, Julio, OBJ, Saq, Hooper can even be included here)

My Guess -->  Atl 31 NYG 20 and line moves up 7 to  ~142

 
I'm out. Good Luck guys.  4,923rd place - not even near the cut line.

Spent too much at TE (Gronk/Kelce)

WR's didn't produce this week.  (T. Smith, Docston, Goodwin, Cole) all counted for me combined for 25 points)  Corey Davis, Dorsett, Lockett, Ross, Richardson were my other WR's)

Rodgers was on bye and Dalton didn't produce with a nice matchup, and didn't get junk time.

RB's were McCaffrey (11) and R. Freeman (9.70) - Clement, Barber, J. Williams, and Conner out.
Right there with you. Below the cut line by a few points and nobody playing tonight. 

See you all next year. ☹️

 
Slim chances, but not completely impossible, down 20 points. 

Ryan -16.5

Julio -4.1

ATL -0

Do I have a hope, or start looking towards next year?

 
Currently at 186, with Barkley, Ridley and Rosas available to move me up.  Haven’t really had to sweat the Turk yet, and some of my players are just beginning to hit their stride:  K Johnson, Gordon, T Smith, etc...  Really need one of my young TEs, or a combination of all three, to start producing consistently:  Goedert, Gasicki, Hurst.  Or Gates to take 5 years off the clock.

 
Going to need a minor miracle. 

13.15 below the cutline per calcomatic.

S Barkley -5.9

C Ridley -4.4

Ride or die. Best of luck to all. 

 
I setup this roster to risk week 7 byes (six total) and hope to make it through. Trubisky, K.Johnson, M.Thomas doing their part this week. 25 points above the cutline with no players left. 

 
Well, Hooper might knock out my only use of R Freeman this year!  He is only 2.2 pts away from sending him to the bench! 

I am not sure if I am bothered that A Cooper's on bye again....  he was used only 2x (week 2 & 4) but extra time to learn the playbook cannot hurt!  That will give him 3 weeks in a row 0 which will give him a 5 week average (minus Week 2 & 4) of 1.7 pts! 

 
Been here from the start.  No idea what you are talking about.  Who is Doug Drinen?


Seriously? Drinen is the FBG Staffer who runs the contest (or least ran it in the early years).  He was an active participant in the equivalent of this thread for years, providing stats and analysis of teams before the others created real-time tracking sites. Because he was in charge of the cuts, he became The Turk.
Aside from his work at FBGs, it's hard to imagine a bio for Drinen that doesn't also identify him as the brains behind pro-football-reference.  That's got to be his #1 achievement in the world of Fantasy Football.

 
I took a 0 at TE this week, with Gronk & Griffin both out while Cook & Vannett were both on bye. Also had zeroes from 3 of my 4 studs, with Gronk out, Antonio Brown on bye, and Bell on bye & holding out. Fortunately I got enough out of Gurley and the rest of my crew to beat the cut by 4 points. On to week 8.

 
Averaging 216.4

Low 189.6

High 238.7

And I’m sure I’ll be elimated before the playoffs ?

Good luck next week all!
Please tell me you have a small stud-filled roster, because we are all screwed if you are averaging 216 with a deep value-filled one.  I have only been over 200 once, and that was week 1.  I am averaging 186.3.

 
Thur week 7 

3238 (Score: 156.25) This  week Just enough

QB AVE 30.77 

RB 1 AVE 24.67

RB 2 AVE 17.21

WR 1 AVE 22.51

WR 2 AVE 14.47

TE AVE 17.4

Flex 1 15.22

Flex 2 13.14

K Ave11.99

DEF AVE11.57

Elliot and Hooper on buy week 8, hope I have less than most 

Elliot could become very scarce after this week and a bye, under 100? 

Cut to 3100 next week and most good teams left a few with bye week problems and injuries]

Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee of bye week 8

Lost 7 of 10 Gordon, Elliot combos and both on bye next week

 
Finished at 151.3 and moving on despite being more than 30 points below my previous worst score of the year.  Thank you for showing up when I needed you most, Mr. Gallup.

 
Aside from his work at FBGs, it's hard to imagine a bio for Drinen that doesn't also identify him as the brains behind pro-football-reference.  That's got to be his #1 achievement in the world of Fantasy Football.
Never heard of him.

 
Made the cut by 12. Had 6 players on bye. I built my team around early bye weeks and current have zero injuries so hopefully I can move forward.

 
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Managed to stay alive this week, but I still have a lot of byes to get through in the next few weeks and don't really have the firepower to make a run at the end of the year anyway.  Will probably get knocked out before week 12 but it's been a fun ride so far.  

Want to give a mid-season shoutout to Steeler for putting together http://calcomatic.com/ again this year.  Contest wouldn't be the same without it and I know how much work it can be to get it right.  Definitely shoot him a donation if you haven't already, if you're still reading this thread in late October you've almost certainly gotten a lot of value out of it.  

 
Top 5 most owned players by position...

QB - Mahomes (1857), Dalton (967), Darnold (841), Rivers (792), Goff (623) - no change from last week

RB - Conner (2295), Barber (2039), R. Freeman (1531), Breida (1421), McCaffrey (1273) - no change from last week

WR - Cole (1775), Goodwin (1672), John Brown (1371), Ross (1231), Hill (1041) - Brown jumped Ross this week

TE - Burton (1501), Njoku (998), Goedert (905), Hooper (573), Gronkowski (484) - Hooper jumped Gronk this week

K - Fairbairn (1022), Butker (853), Vinatieri (726), Lambo (600), Carlson (520) - Carlson jumped Crosby this week

D - CHI (1409), CLE (1166), MIN (548), LAR (467), CIN (403) - no change from last week

Overall survival rate is 26.56%

18 - 628/4051 - 15.50%

19 - 320/1741 - 18.38%

20 - 310/1390 - 22.30%

21 - 305/1189 - 25.65%

22 - 328/1104 - 29.71%

23 - 326/1008 - 32.34%

24 - 301/895 - 33.63%

25 - 261/785 - 33.25%

26 - 270/670 - 40.30%

27 - 226/562 - 40.21%

28 - 184/470 - 39.15%

29 - 178/440 - 40.45%

30 - 378/810 - 46.67%

My heroes...

- 20 teams with only 1 QB, 3 teams with 9 QB's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/108321.php

- 10 teams with only 2 RB's, 2 teams with 12 RB's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/110961.php

- 28 teams with only 3 WR's, 1 team with 16 WR's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/101917.php

- 99 teams with only 1 TE, 1 team with 7 TE's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/108239.php

- 245 teams with only 1 K, 1 team with 9 K's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/107001.php

- 245 teams with only 1 D, 4 teams with 6 D's   http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/103960.php

 
Overall survival rate is 26.56%

18 - 628/4051 - 15.50%

19 - 320/1741 - 18.38%

20 - 310/1390 - 22.30%

21 - 305/1189 - 25.65%

22 - 328/1104 - 29.71%

23 - 326/1008 - 32.34%

24 - 301/895 - 33.63%

25 - 261/785 - 33.25%

26 - 270/670 - 40.30%

27 - 226/562 - 40.21%

28 - 184/470 - 39.15%

29 - 178/440 - 40.45%

30 - 378/810 - 46.67%
It appears the minimum number of players to target is 26 based on the survival numbers above! 

I am sitting at 22 players with only 1 not playing (PK Z Gonzo $2 cut by Clev)

Injuries and byes will really be taking a toll soon!! 

 
Moving on to week 8, although not everyone is pulling their weight:

USAGE

M Trubisky 4, A Smith 3, M Mariota 0 (I'm the last team alive out of 10 that have these three QBs)

M Gordon 6, D Johnson 6, J Conner 4, P Barber 1, R Freeman 1 (welcome!)   (6 of 14 teams left with Gordon, DJ and Freeman - $80)

J Brown 7, J Landry 5, G Allison 4, K Cole 3, T Taylor 1, T Williams (DAL) 0, J Ross 0   (43% survival rate of John Brown owners vs. 26.6% overall)

T Kelce 6, G Olsen 3, D Goedert 2, N Vannett 0, B Jarwin 0  (6 of 17 teams left with both Kelce and Gordon - finally used them both this week)

H Butker 4, M Crosby 2, J Lambo 1  (4 of 20 teams left with these three)

Bears 4, Browns 3, Titans 0  (346 teams left with Chicago/Cleveland, but only 17 also have Tennessee - like it matters here...)

With Freeman finally getting on the board, my unused cash is now down to $30.  I think eventually I'm going to regret carrying Mariota.

 
Okay, been meaning to do this since rosters locked, finally going to do a roster breakdown since I have the time:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/108410.php

(The fraction in parenthesis on each line is active remaining of that player / original count of how many teams that player was on)

QB:

Roethlisburger $14: Used twice (430 / 1707)

Mahomes $11: Used 5 times (1857 / 4243)

Lamar Jackson $4: Used zero (81 / 295)

I planned on taking 2 guys who had potential for big games plus figured Jackson would take over late in the year and maybe be a difference maker if I survive until the end.  Looks like Mahomes was much more than I bargained for, guy is a monster and carrying me and many others.  149 teams still alive with both Roeth and Mahomes, 4 of them have Jackson too.

RB:

Gordon $30: Used 6 times (405 / 1203)

Fournette $29: Used zero (398 / 2599)

Freeman $16: Used 3 times (1531 / 5303)

Chubb $10: Used twice (133 / 562)

Conner $4: Used 4 times (2295 / 5417)

Here I planned to build around 2 studs, Freeman as a 3rd guy to work as insurance, Chubb for late season upside, and Conner just as a bonus starter for who knows how long.  Fournette has been a complete miss, but if I somehow keep surviving until he's healthy, he could be a big difference maker at the end... the talent is there as is the opportunity, he just needs to stop emulating Fred Taylor and toughen up.  Gordon has been super reliable at least.  Conner a pleasant surprise.  Freeman, a little less than I hoped but he's pitched in.  Chubb has stepped up when I've really needed it, and isn't highly owned, could be a big difference maker for me.  I spent the majority of my funds at RB as I saw way better bargains in the WR bin than here.  Only 32 teams left alive with Gordon and Fournette, only 3 of them with Chubb (other 2 have Gordon/Fournette/Chubb/Barber/Prosise and Gordon/Fournette/Chubb/Miller/Barber/Conner).  Pretty glad I chose to avoid Barber, my thought was that he'd not be useful late season, and that still looks to be playing out.

WR: 

Fuller $13: Used 4 times (380 / 1369)

Lockett $9: Used 5 times (668 / 2008)

Miller $7: Used zero (362 / 1241)

Kirk $7: Used 4 times (119 / 403)

Cole $7: Used 3 times (1775 / 5514)

Gallup $6: Used once (717 / 2281)

Ross $5: Used twice (1231 / 3693)

Washington $4: Used zero (330 / 1024)

Taylor $4: Used once (241 / 728)

Chark $3: Used zero (36 / 155)

Smith $3: Used once (430 / 1042)

For WR I decided to go with a bunch of cheap options that had potential for big games.  So far Lockett has been a real hero, along with Fuller when he's on the field.  Miller still has some potential in Chicago, but he hasn't done much yet.  Kirk is getting a lot of use and will keep counting sometimes.  Cole will have a game here and there.  Gallup I dunno, maybe he counts another time or two, maybe not.  Ross, I definitely picked the wrong cheap Cincy WR, at least thus far.  Taylor might've been a waste of $4.  Chark definitely was a waste of $3.  Smith has only counted once, but he's now established as the #2 WR in New Orleans and will definitely count again in the future.  Threw a bunch of stuff against the wall, and enough of it stuck that I'm pretty happy with this group overall.  66 with Fuller and Lockett.  Only 2 left when you add in Kirk.  That guy's team also has Cole in common with my WRs, but that's it.  He does have Chris Godwin and John Brown, who were on my roster numerous times but not on the final one, which is something I'm still upset about.

TE:

Reed $16: Used 4 times (237 / 1177)

Njoku $12: Used 4 times (998 / 3035)

Howard $11: Used 5 times (148 / 542)

Vannett $3: Used zero (163 / 462)

For TE, I wanted 3 guys who could score but didn't break the bank.  I think I'm pretty happy with them all, Reed is underperforming a bit but I have to figure Alex Smith will wake up to him being his best option for a pass at some juncture.  Nojuku has come on the past 4 games, and Howard is turning into the stud he is supposed to become.  Vannett appears to be a waste of money.  FYI, a TE has been a flex scorer for me 6 separate times.  There were only 2 teams in the entire contest that went Reed/Njoku/Howard, and the other was eliminated week 2 (Hi JoeT!)

K: 

Succop $4: Used twice (102 / 384)

Hopkins $3: Used twice (357 / 1141)

Fairbairn $2: Used 3 times (1022 / 2770)

For TE I tried to get guys that don't have byes on weeks where I didn't have too much money already out, on teams who's offense can move the ball but are prone to stalling.  Looks like I hit the mark on all 3, pleased with them.  3 teams had these kickers, the other two eliminated week 1 (that was 22 kicker guy) and week 6.

Defense:

Bears $5: Used 3 times (1409 / 3969)

Redskins: $3 Used twice (150 / 487)

Bucs $3: Used zero (137 / 510)

Browns $2: Used twice (1166 / 3351)

Also pretty happy with this group.  Early byes (except cheap Brownies), they've put up double digits all but 2 weeks.  4 options really helps you get the most out of this position.  I was the only person in the contest to roster these 4 defenses together.

So, overall construction was to build a team of 30 with a plethora of cheap, upside WRs, QBs/RBs who had upside and no conflicting bye weeks to maintain strength, hopefully 3 under-rated TEs with potential to score weekly, and a couple of guys who could be big difference makers late in the season (Jackson, Chubb).  So far it is working, haven't been too close to the cut line despite my second most expensive player failing to count even once.

Week 1: 177.5 (147.3)

Week 2: 227 (164.15)

Week 3: 170.65 (152.65)

Week 4: 168.7 (156.2)

Week 5: 197.3 (149.3)

Week 6: 199.9 (166.35)

Week 7: 164.3 (142.8)

Outlook:

Next couple of weeks will be tough without Gordon... if I make it to week 10 I feel really good about my chances.  Interesting thing, when Mahomes has his bye, the entire rest of my team does not, so I've got a decent chance at surviving the Mahomes cull coming week 12.  L. Bell not coming back to the Steelers has been really helping my team out too, hopefully he stays away as long as possible.  Anyways, I like the chances for my team at this point.  Of course, now that I have posted this and jinxed myself, I'll be bounced next week, but so it goes.  Good luck all. 

 

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