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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (4 Viewers)

Top 5 most owned players by position...

K - Fairbairn (1022), Butker (853), Vinatieri (726), Lambo (600), Carlson (520) - Carlson jumped Crosby this week
And don't look now the Raiders just put the Carlson owners back in the game!

-QG

 
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Vegas123 said:
Thur week 7 

3238 (Score: 156.25) This  week Just enough

QB AVE 30.77 

RB 1 AVE 24.67

RB 2 AVE 17.21

WR 1 AVE 22.51

WR 2 AVE 14.47

TE AVE 17.4

Flex 1 15.22

Flex 2 13.14

K Ave11.99

DEF AVE11.57

-------------------------

This is mine now (QG - just trying to salvage one of these bad repeat posts)

QB Avg 30.8

RB1 Avg 25.3

RB2 Avg 15.3

WR1 Avg 20.8

WR2 Avg 16.0

TE Avg 17.1

Flex1 Avg 15.2

Flex2 Avg 12.5

PK Avg 12.5

Def Avg 14.7

Total Average 180.3

Would feel better if it wasn't such a high scoring year :)

-QG
 
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I made it this week by 2.6 points. With Michael Thomas on bye I'm probably done here.

QB - Mitchell Trubisky 
QB - Andy Dalton 
QB - Joe Flacco 
RB - Kareem Hunt 
RB - Dalvin Cook 
RB - Christian McCaffrey 
RB - Doug Martin
RB - Darren Sproles 
WR - Michael Thomas 
WR - Larry Fitzgerald 
WR - Tyler Lockett 
WR - Mike Williams 
WR - John Brown 
WR - Dede Westbrook 
TE - Charles Clay 
TE - Austin Hooper 
TE - Tyler Kroft 
TE - Jake Butt 
PK - Stephen Gostkowski 
PK - Mason Crosby 
PK - Josh Lambo 
TD - Arizona Cardinals      
TD - Atlanta Falcons 
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Two weeks later and

This entry is still alive.

 
Set this lineup in advance & meant to come back and clean up my picks before the deadline.  Kinda glad I didn't.  Week 7 doesn't look too scary even with Ben, Brown, Connor and SeaBass out.  Hoping there are plenty of skating Connor owners who will help me out.  Be kind Turk.

Name    Still Alive    Survival %
B Roethlisberger    617    36.15
J Goff    819    35.42

M Gordon    569    47.3
L Miller    663    27.08
C McCaffrey    1555    36.22
J Conner    5417    53.2
J Samuels    43    49.43

A Brown    1424    34.06
M Crabtree    115    19.07
J Edelman    170    23.74
A Thielen    746    47.86
K Britt    30    22.06
N Agholor    389    33.11

T Burton    1569    40.58
R Seals-Jones    598    37.61

S Janikowski    349    30.67
C Sturgis    468    39.03

Colts    189    36.49
Browns    1383    41.27
 
My apologies to Gordon and Sturgis owners.  Was almost certain the team was gonna crash and burn when Gordon sat and my lone kicker week 7 drops a goose.

Pardon me while Golem crawls back to his hole with Precious. 

 
Still alive but I dont think for much longer. Was below the cut line going into last night but OBJ bailed me out.

Newton- used 3 times,  Big Ben- 4 times

Kamara- 4, David Johnson- 6, Brieda-4, Powell- 1, Connor-4

Beckham-6, Hill-6, Fuller-4, Stills-3, Cole- 3

Njouku- 6, Gates- 1

Elliot- 3, Crosby -4

Texans-6,  Falcons -1

My team seems like it should be in good shape this week but I have 2 key byes in week 9 (DJ and OBJ). Kamara's best weeks seem to be behind him and DJ obviously isnt putting up great #'s. Oh well, its been fun anyway.

 
Please tell me you have a small stud-filled roster, because we are all screwed if you are averaging 216 with a deep value-filled one.  I have only been over 200 once, and that was week 1.  I am averaging 186.3.
28 people on my roster.  Only 3 have not counted so far.  Don’t worry you are not screwed, I can’t imagine this team taking me to the promised land.

 
I'm out by 3.5 points. Made it to the top 250 last year, was hoping for more. Dalvin Cook finally caught up with me this week. I'm not going to lie, it hurts..it hurts. 
Same* for me, missed by 3. Yes it is disappointing to not continue on in this great contest.

*though I didn't make 250 last year and my Achilles was Fournette. Good luck all. 

 
FYI - the only player owned by 1 person who has put up stats is RB Justin Jackson.  Over the past 2 weeks, he has 5 carries and 2 receptions.

 
I lied. I can't just leave. I'm eliminated but want to see what's up. I enjoy this thread. Good luck to those still in it; I hope a bunch of regular board members survive and advance with a shot at a prize of some sort. 
We should start a lessons learned in here for next year

 
You really should invest in a better crystal ball dude.
I was kidding. I can't figure this contest out. All I can do is follow trends and try and pick the best players. This was the furthest I've ever gotten. I need to switch up what I'm doing. 

eta* Oh, I get now. :)

 
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Stay healthy and a little bit lucky?  
Haha, yeah, that too   :)

But seriously, with a bit of logic and research, trends should have been spotted.  For example, I chose David Johnson.  He has been fairly consistent, just not putting up the kind of #'s expected.  I wasn't worried about his injury last year, so I didn't avoid him.  What I should've been looking at was the overall regression in ARI's offense.  I considered it, but not to the extent they would suck as bad as they do.  Were the flags there already?  Coaching staff, O-Line and QB play?  Did anyone really think Sam Bradford was gonna be special?  A journeyman on his 4th team since 2014?  A guy with a career 5/3 TD/INT ratio?  There's a reason he's a journeyman, but all I saw was a RB who will catch 100 passes, and get 2000 total yards.  I'm sure I am not alone here, as he was the 12th most common RB.  1874 people chose DJ vs 2201 for Gurley, who went for only $3 more.  Most everyone expected the Rams to be a high scoring offense, so Gurley should've doubled DJ in ownership for this contest.

And what about the 2599 Fournette owners?  Leonard missed 6 games as a senior in college, then 2 more as a rookie.  He was risky, and many decided to overlook his well documented injury history.  I don't think Dr. Dan, the sports medicine man, chose him (or Dalvin Cook, for that matter).

As a mass, we did quite well picking Conner, but that was a no-brainer by the time we had to lock in our rosters.  We also nailed John Brown, but whiffed on John Ross.  As a group, we hit some bullseye's, but also missed the board on others.

I guess my point is, there were 15K submissions, but only a few hundred regulars here in the forum.  Do we want winners being the bean counters who simply buy an FBG subscription to submit an entry, or do we want the winner to be an FBG regular?  I for one, don't mind sharing my thoughts.  A simple, look dude, take off the rose colored glasses, ARI is gonna suck balls this year, and here is why, and I would've likely not chosen DJ.

 
I was kidding. I can't figure this contest out. All I can do is follow trends and try and pick the best players. This was the furthest I've ever gotten. I need to switch up what I'm doing. 
OK, as a fun test, please post your team.  Let's see if the masses can spot any flaws, and more important, provide a reason for those flaws.

 
But seriously, with a bit of logic and research, trends should have been spotted.  For example, I chose David Johnson.  He has been fairly consistent, just not putting up the kind of #'s expected.  I wasn't worried about his injury last year, so I didn't avoid him.  What I should've been looking at was the overall regression in ARI's offense.  I considered it, but not to the extent they would suck as bad as they do.  Were the flags there already?  Coaching staff, O-Line and QB play?  Did anyone really think Sam Bradford was gonna be special?  A journeyman on his 4th team since 2014?  A guy with a career 5/3 TD/INT ratio?  There's a reason he's a journeyman, but all I saw was a RB who will catch 100 passes, and get 2000 total yards.  I'm sure I am not alone here, as he was the 12th most common RB.  1874 people chose DJ vs 2201 for Gurley, who went for only $3 more.  Most everyone expected the Rams to be a high scoring offense, so Gurley should've doubled DJ in ownership for this contest.
Can't speak for everyone, but for me the deciding factor wasn't the extra $3, it was the bye week.

 
QB: 

Brees $18

Roethlisberger $14

Bradford $3

Darnold $3

RB:

Alvin Kamara  $35

Marshawn Lynch $15

Chris Carson $11

Bilal Powell $7

Jeremy Hill $3

WR:

Tyreek Hill $23

Stefon Diggs $22

JuJu Smith-Schuster $21

Cooper Kupp $14

Kenny Golladay $11

Chris Godwin $6

TreQuan Smith $3

TE:

O.J. Howard $11

Vance McDonald $8

K:

Greg Zuerlein $6

Stephen Gostkowski $6

DEF

New Orleans Saints $6 

Arizona Cardinals $4

 
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Conner was a gimme, for anyone that actually entered their final submission near the cutoff date.
I didn't. I didn't alter it. As soon as the deadline passed, I kicked myself. But he doesn't save me this week. They're on bye.  

 
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So this was the last amount of thought I've ever put into an entry form, and I (**knocks on wood**) may actually have a shot at a deep run this year.

QB - Ryan/Goff/Mahomes/Darnold-- went with three mid-priced options and threw Darnold in for $3 b/c he had the starting job and figured it was a good risk in a bestball format

RB - Barkley/Coleman/Cohen/Hyde/Carson-- I have James Conner everywhere in fantasy but I'm an idiot and didn't put him on my squad here.

WR - Hogan/Cobb/Fuller/Stills/Ridley/Richardson -- No huge names but pretty deep group here.

TE - Brate/Cook/Hooper -- meh

K - Gould/Butker/Lambo

DEF - Pats/Chiefs/Falcons-- lol bad, though my logic was Chiefs have playmakers that can score TDs and Pats played in a #### division, and I figured Atlanta wouldn't immediately lose several guys to season ending injuries, but yeah this doesn't look too good

Entry 112219
201.9
197.8
212.8 with Brate still to go tonight (#82 overall)

Watch as I get knocked out next week
Still in. Averaging 192 per week. Big bye week with a lot of falcons on my roster. Not too worried about QB with maholmes and Goff but def worried about WR. 

 
RB's

The first thing that pops is RB byes.  You only chose 5 RB's, but 2 are off in 7, and another 2 in 11.  I wouldn't want to count on Kamara, Powell, and Hill, even if all 3 were healthy.  Now, I am not saying my RB corps is any good, but here they are:  DJ, CMC, Royce, Aaron Jones, Barber, and Conner.  I chose 6 RB's, and I do have 1 conflict, with Jones and Conner, but there was no way I was gonna miss on Conner, so I accepted it.

If you had made it to week 11, you would've had Kamara, Lynch, and Carson.  I know Lynch is a beast, but what would've been the odds that he would've remained healthy that late into the season?  He's 100 years old, and runs like a freight train.  I think Lynch owners got pretty much what was expected out of him - decent production to start the season, then he falls off a cliff.  Also, Carson was coming back from a broken ankle the previous year.  Sure, bones heal, but to go into week 11 with Kamara, Lynch, and Carson would've been brutal IMO.

Now, I am not saying any one of your 5 RB's was a bad pick, but as a group, they just don't meld.  Also, since you chose only 5 RB's, I would've went a little studlier.  You spent only $71, and the average is closer to $100.  For that extra $29, you could've had Fournette.   :D

 
Philip Rivers $13

Jimmy Garoppolo $12   OUCH

Patrick Mahomes $11

Christian McCaffrey $26

Royce Freeman $16   OUCH

Marshawn Lynch $15  OUCH

Carlos Hyde $14   UH OH

Sony Michel $10  OUCH

Jordan Wilkins $5  WHIF!

James Conner $4

Stefon Diggs $22

Chris Hogan $17

Marquise Goodwin $13

Sterling Shepard $12

Keelan Cole $7

Trey Burton $14

David Njoku $12

Ricky Seals-Jones $7

Harrison Butker $4

Josh Lambo $3

Kaimi Fairbairn $2

Chicago Bears $5

Arizona Cardinals $4

Cleveland Browns $2

Winner, probably not after week 9..but always fun to play

 
Sunk costs were him, Hill, Too much money in kickers, no Conner, listening to Pete Carroll, bye weeks. 
I don't claim to be an "expert", having only finished in the money once, but my take is: 

1. Too much $ on QBs.  There just isn't enough production difference between high-end QBs and mid-tier QBs to justify spending on the high-cost guys, and you have what I see as 2 high-cost guys. That's compounded by adding 2 low-expectation guys. If you're spending $32 on Brees and Ben, do you really need 2 more guys? Or, if you think Bradford and Darnold are bargains that will really produce, do you need both Brees and Ben also?  I'm a firm believer that 3 mid to low cost sure starters will score nearly as much as more expensive options. For example, I went Goff/Dalton/Tannehill for a total of $23, and they are producing about the same number of points as you got for $38 (of course, Mahomes instead of Goff would have been gold, but nobody can pick them all right). Even when your choices hit, it's likely you're wasting points and money (like Ben having 2 30+ point weeks that did nothing for you). Savings: $15.

2. Too much on high-end WRs.  1 or 2 of Hill/Diggs/Ju-Ju/Kupp would be enough if you add in a bunch of cheaper guys.  The biggest difference between expensive WRs and cheap WRs is consistency, and if you throw a lot of cheap darts, it makes up for the lack of consistency.  You could have easily saved $20-$25 or more there.

3.  Not enough spent on TEs.  At 1.5 ppr, they're extremely valuable in this format and can be a great source of flex points. Either a stud and a few mid-tier guys or a bunch of mid-tier guys is my recommendation. You went with 2 mids and it somewhat hurt you this week with only 14 points at the position. That's also a generally risky approach because TEs are very susceptible to injury and you risk having a week where one guy is injured and the other is on bye. In contrast, both my flex scores this week were TEs, who cost a total of $12.  Personally, I Iike having at least 1 stud and several mid-tier TEs (I have Kelce/Cook/Hooper?Goedert), but if you don't want to go that high, you could at least have added Cook and Hooper for the savings you would have had at QB. 

4. I agree with your "too much money in kickers" analysis. You got good scoring there, but 3 cheap kickers (for a $6-$9 total) could have given you about the same production and saved you $3-$6.

5. Although it isn't a big difference, I think the same strategy as kickers applies to defenses.  Instead of $10 on 2, spread it out over 3-4 for the same or less money. $2 Cleveland and $3 Cincy are each just as likely to score as $6 NO.

6. At RB, I would have invested the savings from WR, K and D into some more solid options. Lynch, Carson, Powell and Hill were all risky propositions from the start (not to mention Carson and Lynch sharing a bye week). I guess that's where your "listening to Pete Carroll" comes in, but there were just too many options in that backfield, with a passing QB to rely on any one of them.  I know there are some regulars here who think RB is not the place to spend money because of the .5 ppr, but outside of occasional guys like Conner (who are generally pretty obvious by the time lineups lock), the cheaper guys just don't produce big weeks like the more expensive ones at RB.  So, you either need 2 or 3 top guys or you need to go shotgun approach like WR and get a lot of the cheap guys.  My preference is stud-heavy there, but ymmv.

 
So there's something else wrong in its construction.  
QB's

Brees ($18), Ben ($14), Bradford ($3), and Darnold ($3)

For me, Bradford jumps out as someone you didn't even need.  He was a wasted roster spot, and more important, a wasted $3.  You chose 2 guys who you expected to carry the team, and they likely will.  I like having 3 QB's, so I think Darnold was a great add to Brees and Ben.  My only criticism would've been - since you chose the $18 studly Brees, I would've went a bit cheaper on your QB2.

My QB's are Ben, Rivers, and Eli.  I knew I wanted Ben and Rivers, but Eli was a horrible selection as my QB3.  Not that his $7 was a bad deal, but I didn't need a third "proven" stud.  I should've went with Dalton or Darnold.  Sure, in hindsight I should've taken Mahomes and Ryan, but this conversation is more about roster construction, as you said.

 
@TheWinz and @apalmer I want to seriously thank you guys for your time in looking at my lineup and in giving me such sound advice for next time. 

@apalmer, I never thought about too much money at Qb and not enough at TE and would have done it again next year. 

@TheWinz, you also are pointing this out. 

I should listen. By the way Winz, I grew up in CT. Granby. North of Hartford. I don't know Mystic, but I've definitely been there and had a college friend from there. 

But guys, thanks for your time again. I really appreciate it. 

 
I don't claim to be an "expert", having only finished in the money once, but my take is: 

1. Too much $ on QBs.  There just isn't enough production difference between high-end QBs and mid-tier QBs to justify spending on the high-cost guys, and you have what I see as 2 high-cost guys. That's compounded by adding 2 low-expectation guys. If you're spending $32 on Brees and Ben, do you really need 2 more guys? Or, if you think Bradford and Darnold are bargains that will really produce, do you need both Brees and Ben also?  I'm a firm believer that 3 mid to low cost sure starters will score nearly as much as more expensive options. For example, I went Goff/Dalton/Tannehill for a total of $23, and they are producing about the same number of points as you got for $38 (of course, Mahomes instead of Goff would have been gold, but nobody can pick them all right). Even when your choices hit, it's likely you're wasting points and money (like Ben having 2 30+ point weeks that did nothing for you). Savings: $15.

2. Too much on high-end WRs.  1 or 2 of Hill/Diggs/Ju-Ju/Kupp would be enough if you add in a bunch of cheaper guys.  The biggest difference between expensive WRs and cheap WRs is consistency, and if you throw a lot of cheap darts, it makes up for the lack of consistency.  You could have easily saved $20-$25 or more there.

3.  Not enough spent on TEs.  At 1.5 ppr, they're extremely valuable in this format and can be a great source of flex points. Either a stud and a few mid-tier guys or a bunch of mid-tier guys is my recommendation. You went with 2 mids and it somewhat hurt you this week with only 14 points at the position. That's also a generally risky approach because TEs are very susceptible to injury and you risk having a week where one guy is injured and the other is on bye. In contrast, both my flex scores this week were TEs, who cost a total of $12.  Personally, I Iike having at least 1 stud and several mid-tier TEs (I have Kelce/Cook/Hooper?Goedert), but if you don't want to go that high, you could at least have added Cook and Hooper for the savings you would have had at QB. 

4. I agree with your "too much money in kickers" analysis. You got good scoring there, but 3 cheap kickers (for a $6-$9 total) could have given you about the same production and saved you $3-$6.

5. Although it isn't a big difference, I think the same strategy as kickers applies to defenses.  Instead of $10 on 2, spread it out over 3-4 for the same or less money. $2 Cleveland and $3 Cincy are each just as likely to score as $6 NO.

6. At RB, I would have invested the savings from WR, K and D into some more solid options. Lynch, Carson, Powell and Hill were all risky propositions from the start (not to mention Carson and Lynch sharing a bye week). I guess that's where your "listening to Pete Carroll" comes in, but there were just too many options in that backfield, with a passing QB to rely on any one of them.  I know there are some regulars here who think RB is not the place to spend money because of the .5 ppr, but outside of occasional guys like Conner (who are generally pretty obvious by the time lineups lock), the cheaper guys just don't produce big weeks like the more expensive ones at RB.  So, you either need 2 or 3 top guys or you need to go shotgun approach like WR and get a lot of the cheap guys.  My preference is stud-heavy there, but ymmv.
Dam, what an excellent post!  I am still gonna continue to break my posts down by position, but what he says above is basically all my thoughts.  Well done!

 
Dam, what an excellent post!  I am still gonna continue to break my posts down by position, but what he says above is basically all my thoughts.  Well done!
They were both excellent and yours drove home the QB points. Thanks again for your time, man.  

 
Did you read the one about RB's a few posts above?  I forgot to quote you, so you may have missed it.
No, but I just did. That helps tremendously. apalmer said similar things. Spend some of the money from the Qbs and WRs and go with studs. You pointed out around one hundred. And I take your point about byes. Basically, it was an entry that made it through on the strength of the showings of the QBs, WRs, and cheap TEs that over performed. But the structure was off in the QBs and WRs having too much money, and the RBs and TEs not having enough. Plus, the distribution of the dollars among kickers and defenses could have been more best ball-ish. I see now. 

Okay. Cool. Thanks for pointing that out and taking the time. 

 
I just really really want FBG regulars to make it deep into this contest.  It sux when the top guys are all math nerds who probably don't even like football.
Makes sense.  It reminds me of the unlimited daily sites where you can enter as much as you want. 

 

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