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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

I just really really want FBG regulars to make it deep into this contest.  It sux when the top guys are all math nerds who probably don't even like football.
By the way, that also helps me for fantasy in general. Thinking about consistency in receivers being built into their cost like apalmer pointed out, or your tacit reiteration about getting one stud instead of two average backs just needed to be reinforced, I think. In case I trade. I'm deep in my league, and good, but in order to win, I'm going to have to upgrade in one or two spots via trade.  

 
By the way, that also helps me for fantasy in general. Thinking about consistency in receivers being built into their cost like apalmer pointed out, or your tacit reiteration about getting one stud instead of two average backs just needed to be reinforced, I think. In case I trade. I'm deep in my league, and good, but in order to win, I'm going to have to upgrade in one or two spots via trade.  
Yeah, best ball and league play are 2 different animals.  Chad Ocho Cinco was a perfect example of a great best-baller, and a horrible leaguer.  His end-of-year stats were always great, but he would go off for 10/150/3, and follow it up with 3/60 and 2/40.

As for league trades, 9 times out of 10, the team getting 1 player for 2 wins out.  I'll take a starting roster of studs and a bench of waiver wire pickups over a "well balanced" team anyday.  In a league with 16 roster spots, would you rather have a pick every round (as usual), or would you prefer 6 picks in the first 2 rounds, followed by 10 picks in the last round?

 
Yeah, best ball and league play are 2 different animals.  Chad Ocho Cinco was a perfect example of a great best-baller, and a horrible leaguer.  His end-of-year stats were always great, but he would go off for 10/150/3, and follow it up with 3/60 and 2/40.

As for league trades, 9 times out of 10, the team getting 1 player for 2 wins out.  I'll take a starting roster of studs and a bench of waiver wire pickups over a "well balanced" team anyday.  In a league with 16 roster spots, would you rather have a pick every round (as usual), or would you prefer 6 picks in the first 2 rounds, followed by 10 picks in the last round?
Yep, I did know that, it just wound up that way. I have some gems in there that I got late, but for the most part, one of my leagues is underwhelming to me.  

 
rockaction said:
Yep, I did know that, it just wound up that way. I have some gems in there that I got late, but for the most part, one of my leagues is underwhelming to me.  
I am in only 1 redraft league this yr, am the highest scoring team, and my record is 3-4.  I can honestly say this contest has meant way more to me than that league.  Just ask my wife.  She knows each week I have 3 priorities: 1) the Chargers must win,  2) I must advance in this contest, and 3) the league comes last.  Now, if I make it to the finals in week 16, and it comes down to $20K, priorities 1 & 2 will have to flip-flop.  I'm not a complete moron!

 
I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE DISCUSSIONS HERE! 

Strategy, comedy and philosophy all mixed into a Fantasy Football genre!  Plus free beer! 

Onto my "strategy" comment re: contest roster:

I went out somewhere like Week 9-10 last year due to injuries.

Pre-season Thinking (I wanted 20-24 players with 3 QB, 4-5 RB, 5-6 WR, 3-4 TE, 2-3 PK, 3 Def)  Was looking at minimizing multiple players having common Bye week issues. 

QB: Brees ($18) & Ryan ($13) would have MVP calibre years ad bargain $ (both high octane offenses with quality weapons and playing in NFC South); Oak would have horrible Def so Carr would get tons of "garbage time value"  

RB:  Did not want to pay for $$$ RB, but expected 1 or 2 mid-range RB1's to emerge (tried a little quantity over quality here): A Collins ($21), K Drake ($21), D Henry ($21), R Freeman ($16) each had the RB1 potential and a good chance to exceed projections; added Connor ($4) as an afterthought when I changed a flyer WR (dropped C Samuels).  

WR: Here I paired WR with my QB's Ryan, Carr & Brees and went for a stud (Julio $31),  a clear WR1 in A Cooper ($23) & flyer T Smith ($3).  I thought Smith would be NOS WR2 value by Week 5-7.  Maybe I am a little premature and I even target him in my leagues (1 Keeper & 1 Dynasty).  Filled my WR depth with what I hoped was good value: Goodwin ($13), Godwin ($6).  Each was QB favorite target in preseason games & FBG camp summary reports (limited info, but very useful!)

TE: I wanted inexpensive TEs who were rising players or young and hungry! Hooper (paired with Ryan), Burton (no real WR1) & Goedert (crippled WR corp means 2 TE sets!)  This has been an above average scoring for my team but nothing like Stud TE's!  

PK: who cares....Lutz ($5), Z Gonzalez ($2) & Parkey ($2)

DEF: LAR, CHI & CLEV - all 3 looked like they had the pieces in place for some good matchups.  

RESULTS:  Average weekly score 180 ...still alive so that is something.... 

QB: Ryan & Brees both are averaging > 30 pt/week  ....very happy here... this is why I am still in this at this point. 

RB:  This might be a somewhat unique combination, but it is not a strength to rely on so far.  I can only hope they emerge and help me as we progress....My Top 4 $ RBs are averaging 25 pt/wk COMBINED!  TERRIBLE!   If not for Connor, I would be done! 

WR: Here my roster looks like it will be the cause my downfall... My Top 3 $ WR = 36 pt/wk  Trades, injuries and just good defense has limited them.  

TE:  I have the same TE as most other teams remaining!  Nothing unique...  maybe that is good? Burton & Hooper combined for almost 30 pts each week.  

PK: aside from Lutz, I did little thinking about PK. 

DEF: I really spent some time looking at their schedules & it is paying off.  Average starting Def = 12 pt/wk

The A Cooper trade to Dallas coupled with my 3 Atl players having week 8 Bye gives me 5 spots with ZERO!  

Ryan, Henry, Julio, Cooper, Hooper = average 80 pts/wk from my starting lineup missing!!  :wall:

 
RB:  This might be a somewhat unique combination, but it is not a strength to rely on so far.  I can only hope they emerge and help me as we progress....My Top 4 $ RBs are averaging 25 pt/wk COMBINED!  TERRIBLE!   If not for Connor, I would be done! 
To be fair, a lot of people whiffed on a lot of RBs this year. I mean, I was down on a lot of second, third, and fourth rounders like Freeman, Lewis, Henry, etc. But I drafted a lot of Drake - and that really hurt me this season.

 
To be fair, a lot of people whiffed on a lot of RBs this year. I mean, I was down on a lot of second, third, and fourth rounders like Freeman, Lewis, Henry, etc. But I drafted a lot of Drake - and that really hurt me this season.
Same here.  I hit it HUGE with Barkley, but I also took D Freeman, Lynch, Barber and Breida.  So I am hurting big time at RB2 and can't expect a flex score.

And I am probably screwed when Barkley is on bye.

 
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25064248/how-los-angeles-rams-clinch-2018-nfl-playoffs-early-wreck-fantasy-teams

This will affect the winner in a big way if it happens and proballey will

 
Same here.  I hit it HUGE with Barkley
I REALLY wanted Barkley in my salary cap dynasty league. Problem is, the top RB always goes for a lot in our league. Barkeley went for $32 (out of $100). Good news is my league mates aren't usually interested in the third or fourth rookie, so I got Michel and Chubb for a combined $5. 

 
I ABSOLUTELY LOVE THE DISCUSSIONS HERE!  I like the layout of your thoughts on your team, so here is mine for my team:

Pre-season Thinking:  I wanted to have a big roster consisting of 2 proven QB's and a third to allow for 2 options at QB each week, a couple stud RB's and fill out the rest with value, a small army of cheap WR's, one good TE and a handful of hopefuls to exploit the flex position, and 3 each of K's and D's.  I also wanted to ensure minimal bye conflicts at each position, and also bye week conflicts of my "best" players across all positions.  Last, I wanted to steer clear of the latest byes for my best studs, and for my team in general.

QB - Ben and Rivers are the 2 QB's I always had in mind.  I used end-of-year SoS to pick Eli as my QB3, and hopefully I last to find out if I was right.

RB - Wanted a top guy.  Avoided Gurley for his bye, Bell for his holdout, and Kamara for his regression, leaving DJ or Zeke.  Bought the DJ hype about him getting 1000 rushing and 1000 receiving.  As my 2nd tier stud, I chose McCaffrey, expecting similar but slightly lower numbers than DJ.  Never saw Lindsay emerging, and assumed Freeman would supplant Booker early on.  I expected Aaron Jones to be getting a higher percentage of GB's touches by now.  Couldn't pass on Barber, as he was surely entering the season as TB's RB1.  Last, Conner was a steal for as long as Bell held out.

WR -  Quantity over quality for sure.  I chose 9, and only Goodwin costs double digits ($13).  I actually selected them in the following order:  Lockett, Goodwin, Brown, Godwin, Ross, Cole, Ginn, Gallup, and Taywan Taylor.  Only Cole/Ross (9) and Gallup/Taylor (8) have bye conflicts, leaving me with 8 options in all weeks except 8 & 9, where I would be with 7 options.

TE - At 1.5 PPR, I wanted to roster one decent guy, and as many cheap value guys as I could get.  I assumed I would get a flex from my TE's quite often.  My decent TE was Burton.  My next choice was Goedert, who was a preseason darling.  I then went with Cook as a boom/bust guy.  My 4th choice was Clay, because I thought he was gonna get lots of catches.  I had the $ to grab a 5th flier, Ryan Griffin.

PK - Just wanted 3 cheap guys with differing bye weeks.  Also, wanted kickers from warm weather teams and decent offenses.  I first selected Fairbairn, then Lambo.  My third choice was my only homer pick, Sturgis.

DEF -  I originally had the Pats based on them playing BUF and MIA twice each, but I really wanted CLE, and didn't want the week 11 conflict.  I had the $ to roster CHI and PIT, who I thought could put up some nice scores.  Didn't want to spend $12 on D's, but it just turned out that way.

RESULTS:  Average weekly score 186, low of 170, high of 204

QB - Ben & Rivers combo averaging 33 weekly for me, a score I will gladly take.  Eli almost counted last week, but has been dead money to this point.

RB - DJ, CMC, and Conner have carried my corps.  DJ and CMC have been fairly consistent, but not explosive like Conner.  Seems like I will have to count on these 3, but I still have hope for Jones.  Losing hope for Barber and Freeman.

WR - I hit very well with Lockett, Brown, and Godwin, and still have high hopes for Goodwin.  Ginn started well, but ended up on IR.  The remaining 4 are very boom/bust, and Ross is hurt, so I am down to 7.

TE - I've only managed 2 flex scores from my 5 TE's over the first 7 weeks.  Now Griffin is hurt, and Clay is getting minimal catches and even fewer yards.

K - The $2 Fairbairn is carrying this ragtag bunch, and Sturgis is hurt.  Serves me right for making a homer pick.

D - Averaging 13 a week from this trio.  Only 1 week in single digits, so I am happy. 

 
I'm one of the teams that avoided all Rams and Chiefs players due to the bye week. I'm not sure if that was a good idea, but week 12 is going to be brutal if you have more than a couple of top players out. That said, it might not matter as much if more than half the teams remaining at that point have those players. 

 
Been checking in from time to time, but haven't posted yet.  Figured why not this week, since I'm coming off my best week overall, as I finished 150th overall.  Usage:

QB:  

PMahomes $11, 5      PRivers $13, 1      DCarr $9, 1

RB:

JWhite $9, 5     JConner $4, 3     CMcCaffrey $26, 3     LMiller $18, 2     MLynch $15, 2     CClement $10, 2     JWilliams $15, 0     AJones $9, 0

WR:

SWatkins $15, 4     CGodwin $6, 4     DWestbrook $5, 3     DMoncrief $5, 2     CDavis $15, 2     QEnunwa $6, 2     GAllison $6, 2     PDorsett $2, 2     MGallup $6, 1     

TE:

TBurton $12, 5     DNjoku $12, 4

K:

CParkey $2, 6     DCarlson, $3, 1

DEF:

Rams $8, 4     Broncos $6, 3

Analysis:

Up to now, I've been pretty balanced, using everyone except for the two Green Bay RBs.  Carlson is back, but I've lost Lynch and Enunwa for good, or at least most likely in Lynch's case.  I've still got some byes to navigate but since I went with a committee approach they are fairly spread out talent wise.  Having Mahomes off late will of course hurt.  Plus Conner may revert to being a backup, Carr could lose his job and Gallup's arrow went from starting to point up to maybe not so much.  I could survive a few weeks but don't know if I have enough "swing for the fences" to truly contend.  My best hope is to continue to throw enough against the wall each week that sticks.

 
Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee week 8 buys

7990 player on teams have byes

About 2 per team average

 
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Thursday is how we start week 8 (MIA at HOU), cutting down from 4000 to 3100 teams:

QB - Watson (107), Tannehill (121) - Tannehill ruled out already

RB - Miller (566), Drake (291), Gore (125), Foreman (20), Ballage (19) - Foreman still hasn't dressed

WR - Stills (607), Fuller (380), Amendola (262), Hopkins (244), Coutee (89), Wilson (44), Parker (11) - Stills & Coutee ruled out; Wilson on IR

TE - Gesicki (408), Griffin (186), O'Leary (5) - Griffin ruled out

K - Fairbairn (1022), Sanders (85)

D - MIA (259), HOU (238)

Cut line should still be at zero after the Thursday game.  Good luck to all remaining.

 
Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee week 8 buys

7990 player on teams have byes

About 2 per team average
I have more than my share then--Zeke, Gallup, Hooper and Taywan Taylor.  I also have Tannehill, Stills & Ross out, which is going to make this week more "interesting" than it should have been.  I guess that's why we go with larger rosters, right?

 
I have more than my share then--Zeke, Gallup, Hooper and Taywan Taylor.  I also have Tannehill, Stills & Ross out, which is going to make this week more "interesting" than it should have been.  I guess that's why we go with larger rosters, right?
Your team still looks fine with:

QB - Goff and Dalton

RB - DJ, CMC, Barber, and Conner

WR - Goodwin, Cole, John Brown, Westbrook, and Jaron Brown

TE - Kelce, Cook, and Goedert

K - Hopkins, Fairbairn, and Parkey

D - TB, CIN, and CLE

I have bolded your starters for you this week, you're welcome   :)

 
My guess as to my starters for this week...

QB - Ben

RB - Conner & DJ

WR - John Brown & Lockett

TE - Burton

Flex - CMC & Cook (Jared, not Dalvin)

K - Fairbairn

D - CHI

 
Your team still looks fine with:

QB - Goff and Dalton

RB - DJ, CMC, Barber, and Conner

WR - Goodwin, Cole, John Brown, Westbrook, and Jaron Brown

TE - Kelce, Cook, and Goedert

K - Hopkins, Fairbairn, and Parkey

D - TB, CIN, and CLE

I have bolded your starters for you this week, you're welcome   :)
Dalton against TB has a better than even chance of out-producing Goff against GB, but otherwise you're probably right about starters.  Dodds's projections put me around 142 points for the week. His projections are usually about 10-15% low because of the bestball effect, so that puts me around 155-160, which should be OK. The one thing I've learned through the years of this contest, though, is that looking fine and doing fine are not necessarily the same thing.  What I'd really like to see "Good Bortles" (or at least "Not Terrible Bortles") reappear and get some of Cole and Westbrook's value back.

 
QB Winston, Manning, Flacco

QB Barkley, CMC  others are Elliot bye, Barber and Freeman look bleak so using those 2 scores probably better than most

WR Fuller, Goodwin, Lockett, Brown.  Richardson, Ross, Patterson all look like 0

TE Graham, Howard     Hooper on bye

Not really playing Best ball at flex could comeback and haunt me  need all but 1 bold to put up decent numbers

K  Hopkins, Janikowski and Fairbairn

D Bears, Redskins, Browns

 
QB Winston, Manning, Flacco

QB Barkley, CMC  others are Elliot bye, Barber and Freeman look bleak so using those 2 scores probably better than most

WR Fuller, Goodwin, Lockett, Brown.  Richardson, Ross, Patterson all look like 0

TE Graham, Howard     Hooper on bye

Not really playing Best ball at flex could comeback and haunt me  need all but 1 bold to put up decent numbers

K  Hopkins, Janikowski and Fairbairn

D Bears, Redskins, Browns
Yowza, you were almost gone in week 1!  Congrats on surviving.

 
Still going strong, had my best week last week.

No major injuries and a lot of point scorers at the key positions.  

 
Still hanging on and have been 20+ above the cut line all but week one.  Weeek nine scares me a bit, but I think I’m in better shape than a number of other teams so I am hoping to get by if I make it past this week. 

I have used everyone except Stafford (Mahomes and Bortles are my other two) and Antonio Gates (Njoku and Burton) so far. 

Have to admit I’m surprised that I used Peyton Barber, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Curtis Samuel before my most expensive QB.

I have used Barkley and CMC every week they have played. Same with Geronimo Allison when he’s been able to play. 

 
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Not blowing it out of the water, but my worst week was 23 over the cut.

Hoping for continued consistency.. and hopefully saving all my luck for the home stretch.

eta - it will really help if Bell stays gone through week 9!

 
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Not blowing it out of the water, but my worst week was 23 over the cut.

Hoping for continued consistency.. and hopefully saving all my luck for the home stretch.

eta - it will really help if Bell stays gone through week 9!
Pretty safe bet at this point.  Even if he shows up now, he won't be ready to play by then.

 
So I was thinking about this contest today, and my thoughts turned to RB. 

While my RBs have been mostly mediocre, (Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Spencer Ware, Jeremy Hill), I'm not sure I would have done anything different. While we need good RBs to go deep in the contest, ask all the owners that paid for first and second round RBs how that's working out for them? Sure, if you drafted Gurley or Kamara, you're stoked. But look at the outright busts so far in the first three rounds. It's a wasteland: Leveon Bell, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook. and Leonard Fournette. 

Every year I ask myself, "What did I get right and what did I screw up?" All said and done, I'll still take my mediocre RBs and just hope my dominant WRs and QBs get me far.

 
So I was thinking about this contest today, and my thoughts turned to RB. 

While my RBs have been mostly mediocre, (Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Spencer Ware, Jeremy Hill), I'm not sure I would have done anything different. While we need good RBs to go deep in the contest, ask all the owners that paid for first and second round RBs how that's working out for them? Sure, if you drafted Gurley or Kamara, you're stoked. But look at the outright busts so far in the first three rounds. It's a wasteland: Leveon Bell, David Johnson, Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook. and Leonard Fournette. 

Every year I ask myself, "What did I get right and what did I screw up?" All said and done, I'll still take my mediocre RBs and just hope my dominant WRs and QBs get me far.
Idk, I’m feeling pretty good with Gurley and Barkley as my top 2. ??‍♂️

Having Mahomes at QB isn’t hurting either.

 
Oh totally. Those are great picks. The surrounding first round picks? Not so hotso. 
Zeke, DJ and CMC haven't produced big numbers for me, but (along with Conner) they've been solid scores every week, and, hopefully, the coaching change in Arizona will lead to DJ stepping up his production and adding a viable WR in Dallas will help Zeke. On the whole, I'm very happy to head down the stretch with my guys.

 
My team sucks. I'm amazed I've lasted this far. With Rivers on bye, I gotta rely on Keenum. Hahahahaha..I don't stand a chance. 

 
Thankfully, this early snoozer (Eissen and Co. blow chunks) is a low scoring game so far. I hope it stays that way. 

 

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