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Ignoratio Elenchi

2018 FBG Subscriber Contest

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4 hours ago, Raback said:

Yea I agree.  QB as well for me as the problem is I like so many of them at their prices 

Yeah the QB prices were pretty surprising IMO.  Some stunning in fact.

-QG

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7 hours ago, TheWinz said:

After an hour of going through all the choices, I have only chosen 1 kicker thus far.  This is gonna take days, and I am perfectly fine with that.

22 more to go

-QG

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2 hours ago, msudaisy26 said:

I finished in the 140's last year and my roster stunk. Anyone can do it. 

I still remember the year I came in 250th.  Seemingly every guy on my team got injured Week 13 :kicksrock:

Also kudos to Joe and crew as all the dates in the rules have been correctly updated it looks like :thumbup:

-QG

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51 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Its old bugs bunny schtick.  

that would be Maroons :)  Morans is from an infamous sign.

The Maroons also are the rightful 1925 NFL Champions.

-QG

(sorry didn't see the previous reply with correction amidst my Hippling)

Edited by QuizGuy66

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33 minutes ago, adrenaline said:

Anyone considering rostering 2 TB TEs?

You know I have done this in a couple ffpc best balls where you can get them together at like the 8/9 or 9/10 turns. wasn’t too excited when I looked at that here with their prices but it is a possibility.  

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42 minutes ago, Shaunz33 said:

You know I have done this in a couple ffpc best balls where you can get them together at like the 8/9 or 9/10 turns. wasn’t too excited when I looked at that here with their prices but it is a possibility.  

I guess for it to really be worth it one of them would need to go down, though it would be comforting knowing you have injury covered.

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8 minutes ago, adrenaline said:

I'm having problems picking RBs, I think I have some deep seeded issues after Johnson went down on me last season.

:mellow:

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My first of many submissions...

QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $10
QB - Derek Carr - OAK/7 - $9
QB - Eli Manning - NYG/9 - $7
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $28
RB - Mark Ingram - NO/6 - $20
RB - Rex Burkhead - NE/11 - $16
RB - Kerryon Johnson - DET/6 - $15
RB - Sony Michel - NE/11 - $10
RB - Matt Breida - SF/11 - $8
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/9 - $25
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9
WR - Cameron Meredith - NO/6 - $8
WR - Christian Kirk - ARI/9 - $7
WR - Geronimo Allison - GB/7 - $6
WR - Dante Pettis - SF/11 - $4
TE - Vance McDonald - PIT/7 - $8
TE - Charles Clay - BUF/11 - $8
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/8 - $8
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $4
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/10 - $7
TD - New England Patriots - NE/11 - $5

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2 hours ago, adrenaline said:

I guess for it to really be worth it one of them would need to go down, though it would be comforting knowing you have injury covered.

When you look at each week last year and count the higher score between them, they would have been like a top 5 TE in FFPC with over 200 points. I wouldn’t want to have to choose which to start each week so the best ball format is better for this. Or, as you say, you are covered if one gets hurt and you know who to start. 

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3 hours ago, TheWinz said:

My first of many submissions...

QB - Dak Prescott - DAL/8 - $10
QB - Derek Carr - OAK/7 - $9
QB - Eli Manning - NYG/9 - $7
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $28
RB - Mark Ingram - NO/6 - $20
RB - Rex Burkhead - NE/11 - $16
RB - Kerryon Johnson - DET/6 - $15
RB - Sony Michel - NE/11 - $10
RB - Matt Breida - SF/11 - $8
WR - T.Y. Hilton - IND/9 - $25
WR - Tyreek Hill - KC/12 - $23
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9
WR - Cameron Meredith - NO/6 - $8
WR - Christian Kirk - ARI/9 - $7
WR - Geronimo Allison - GB/7 - $6
WR - Dante Pettis - SF/11 - $4
TE - Vance McDonald - PIT/7 - $8
TE - Charles Clay - BUF/11 - $8
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/8 - $8
PK - Harrison Butker - KC/12 - $4
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/10 - $7
TD - New England Patriots - NE/11 - $5

hate what you did at tight ends.  Overall not a bad team for the end of the season push.... IF you make it that far.

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

hate what you did at tight ends.  Overall not a bad team for the end of the season push.... IF you make it that far.

You hit the nail on the head.  I saved TE's for last, had only $24, and wanted to draft 3 vs 2, so I simply chose guys I think can catch a few balls.  Also, I think Kerryon was a bit overpriced, but I am literally putting my money where my mouth is.  This team would be decent for weeks 14-16, but there would surely be weeks biting nails waiting for the cutoff scores.

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Feels weird to say this, but too much value this year. I was on pace for a 40 man roster before I realized I only had 6 spots left and about $100.

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Feels weird to say this, but too much value this year. I was on pace for a 40 man roster before I realized I only had 6 spots left and about $100.

Yep.  On my initial walkthrough I clicked everyone who seemed like a great value to me and ended up with a 35 man roster.  I’ll probably be close to 30 this year 

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@Joe Bryant Ummm... Why is the only TE listed for the Jets, Leggett?... First off he may not even make the team and they drafted Chris Herndon in the 4th round of this years draft... Not to say that means you need to have him on there but still there are tons of 4th round and later draft picks on the teams. I get leaving most of them off. Just surprised me to not have at least the rookie who is by all means going to win the starting job. Even for $2 can I write him in... haha 

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Does anyone remember the browser extension that created a calendar grid based on the roster you created after you submitted your lineup? Does that still exist for this season?

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On 8/5/2018 at 8:10 AM, apalmer said:

Wait until you see the drop off this year, starting it later.  Of course, I guess that increases the odds of the hard-core contest guys, so thanks, Joe.

 

Seriously, though, my guess would be a combination of guys who legally can't win the money and "life".  For example, the commissioner of my main league is a subscriber.  He's knowledgeable and active, and spends lots of time doing his Commish duties, in addition to following all the normal FF developments. Traditionally, we've compared rosters on the league chatboard and followed each other's teams (along with 2 or 3 other guys there who are subscribers). Two years ago when I posted my roster, his response was "oh, crap, I was so busy, I forgot to get my entry in." Last year, I jokingly sent a reminder a few days before the deadline, more to rub in the fact that he had forgotten than to actually remind him.  His response? "Wow, thanks! I threw together a lineup when it first came out, then got wrapped up in other stuff and forgot to get back to it. I'll do that now." 

How did I miss this post? Oh yeah, same reason I've forgotten about the contest a couple of years! I promise to be better this year.

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1 hour ago, Skeptable said:

@Joe Bryant Ummm... Why is the only TE listed for the Jets, Leggett?... First off he may not even make the team and they drafted Chris Herndon in the 4th round of this years draft... Not to say that means you need to have him on there but still there are tons of 4th round and later draft picks on the teams. I get leaving most of them off. Just surprised me to not have at least the rookie who is by all means going to win the starting job. Even for $2 can I write him in... haha 

Always omissions in the contest.  

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On 8/7/2018 at 11:03 AM, Ignoratio Elenchi said:

Gurley is a massive bargain.  Must-own imo. 

On my first pass, I went through picking guys that I thought were good values.  Ended up with Gurley, Cooks, and Goff.  Submitted and, of course, see the Week 12 bye which explains why.

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Put together a decent squad on my first pass. Then saw that I have a severe bye week issue at a time in the contest that you can't have bye week issues. Back to the drawing board.

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1 hour ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

How is Gurley a bargain when he's the most expensive guy in the whole contest?

I can't tell if they were kidding or not. But the top RB is sort of the benchmark price. Last year David Johnson was $39. A few years ago Adrian Peterson was $42. So by that standard you could say Gurley at $37 is cheaper.  I wouldn't want my $37 RB on a bye in Week 12 though.

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6 minutes ago, LittlePhatty said:

I can't tell if they were kidding or not. But the top RB is sort of the benchmark price. Last year David Johnson was $39. A few years ago Adrian Peterson was $42. So by that standard you could say Gurley at $37 is cheaper.  I wouldn't want my $37 RB on a bye in Week 12 though.

and back a few years before they went to the more wide-open pricing I think ADP was something like $70 one year.

-QG

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2 hours ago, eNdblu said:

Does anyone remember the browser extension that created a calendar grid based on the roster you created after you submitted your lineup? Does that still exist for this season?

It will be available again this year at calcomatic.com .  I hope to get the site updated this evening but I've been swamped with my real job lately.  I'll update this thread when it's ready.

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1 hour ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

How is Gurley a bargain when he's the most expensive guy in the whole contest?

If you just look at Dodds' player projections, he has Gurley projected for about 40 more points in PPR on the year than Kamara, but there's only a $2 price difference between the two.  He also projects Gurley for 25 more points than Bell, but they are priced the same.

If you go in wanting a Top 5 back, given that they are all flatly-priced, Gurley looks like a pretty good value, until you realize the Week 12 bye.

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Perhaps the staff discounted Gurley a few bucks for his late bye week.  I tend to think not however, because only the Rams and Chiefs are off, and Hunt's cost is equal to Fournette's, and Fournette has a higher ADP right now.

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A day in the life of a Subscribers contest addict:

8pm.....look at roster, change 1 player. Have $$ left, ok change another player. But if I drop this defense or this kicker then I can upgrade to this player.....

8:45pm......for the love of Fantasy football can't I just go back to the 7th version I had yesterday.....

9:33pm.....room is spinning....pretty sure I just took Tyrod Taylor as my QB1.....wait I have $1 left....

10:01pm.....ok blew up entire roster - started again.....I like this one.....but I have $2 left over....hmmm

10:22pm.....all hope is lost - just have a team (that I think will get bounced week 6 like usual).....I give up....until tomorrow and the vicious circle starts again.....

The time of our lives.....where is the Whiskey....

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30 minutes ago, Dacomish said:

A day in the life of a Subscribers contest addict:

8pm.....look at roster, change 1 player. Have $$ left, ok change another player. But if I drop this defense or this kicker then I can upgrade to this player.....

8:45pm......for the love of Fantasy football can't I just go back to the 7th version I had yesterday.....

9:33pm.....room is spinning....pretty sure I just took Tyrod Taylor as my QB1.....wait I have $1 left....

10:01pm.....ok blew up entire roster - started again.....I like this one.....but I have $2 left over....hmmm

10:22pm.....all hope is lost - just have a team (that I think will get bounced week 6 like usual).....I give up....until tomorrow and the vicious circle starts again.....

The time of our lives.....where is the Whiskey....

tough day

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2 hours ago, Dacomish said:

A day in the life of a Subscribers contest addict:

8pm.....look at roster, change 1 player. Have $$ left, ok change another player. But if I drop this defense or this kicker then I can upgrade to this player.....

8:45pm......for the love of Fantasy football can't I just go back to the 7th version I had yesterday.....

9:33pm.....room is spinning....pretty sure I just took Tyrod Taylor as my QB1.....wait I have $1 left....

10:01pm.....ok blew up entire roster - started again.....I like this one.....but I have $2 left over....hmmm

10:22pm.....all hope is lost - just have a team (that I think will get bounced week 6 like usual).....I give up....until tomorrow and the vicious circle starts again.....

The time of our lives.....where is the Whiskey....

Now you have to factor the rest of us that can look at work and start messing with it at 8 am

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58 minutes ago, BroncoFreak_2K3 said:

18 total

QB - $37
RB - $88
WR - $82
TE - $25
PK - $8
TD - $10

It's more fun if you list your players.  C'mon, you can do it.  We won't tell anyone, promise.

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QB - Jameis Winston - TB/5 - $10
QB - Eli Manning - NYG/9 - $7
QB - Sam Darnold - NYJ/11 - $3
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/9 - $28
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26
RB - Mark Ingram - NO/6 - $20
RB - Sony Michel - NE/11 - $10
RB - LeGarrette Blount - DET/6 - $6
RB - Thomas Rawls - NYJ/11 - $2
WR - Mike Evans - TB/5 - $27
WR - Corey Davis - TEN/8 - $15
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/7 - $9
WR - Paul Richardson - WAS/4 - $9
WR - Dede Westbrook - JAX/9 - $5
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Dante Pettis - SF/11 - $4
TE - Evan Engram - NYG/9 - $19
TE - Ben Watson - NO/6 - $8
TE - Austin Hooper - ATL/8 - $8
TE - Ricky Seals-Jones - ARI/9 - $7
TE - Ed Dickson - SEA/7 - $5
PK - Dan Bailey - DAL/8 - $4
PK - Dustin Hopkins - WAS/4 - $3
PK - Kaimi Fairbairn - HOU/10 - $2
TD - Washington Redskins - WAS/4 - $3
TD - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - TB/5 - $3
TD - Oakland Raiders - OAK/7 - $2

!0th try 400 more to go

 

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Calcomatic.com is ready to go!:thumbup:

Right now it's in pre-season mode so 33 test entries are setup for testing/validation before the season starts.  Each NFL team is represented by a test entry and all the players in the contest from that team are assigned to that test entry.  So one test entry is made up of all PHI players, one test entry has all PIT players, etc.  So that accounts for 32 test entries and the last is all the players who are still an FA.

It looks like some of the scoring has changed from last year's contest so I'll use preseason to iron out any changes that I may have missed. If you see anything out of place let me know!   

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Since Dodds set the prices for this contest, I decided to use his own projections to see where HE thinks the value picks are.  As a sample, I chose running backs.  For example, let's start with the top RB - Todd Gurley.  His cost is $37, and Dodds projects him to score 346.9 fantasy points.  That gives a return on investment of 9.37 fantasy points per dollar.  Obviously, the higher this number, the better the value.  Based on this, let's look at Dodds top 20 projected scoring RB's...

1 – Gurley – 9.37

2 – Elliott – 9.3

3 – Bell – 8.75

4 – Johnson – 9.2

5 – Kamara – 8.82

6 – Gordon – 9.01

7 – Fournette – 9.24

8 – Hunt – 8.94

9 – Cook – 9.26

10 – Barkley – 8.83

11 – McCaffrey – 9.32

12 – Freeman – 9.41

13 – McKinnon – 9.44

14 – Howard – 7.82

15 – Mixon – 8.12

16 – Drake – 9.14

17 – Henry – 8.93

18 – Collins – 8.8

19 – Miller – 10.19

20 – Ajayi – 8.58

Sure, there are many scrub RB's that yield a way higher return on investment.  For example, Thomas Rawls is only $2, and Dodds projects him for 47.3 fantasy points, giving him a score of 23.65.  Problem is, barring an injury, he will never have his score counted as one of your starters in any week.  If you think Rawls will climb the depth chart and get some serious playing time, then he is for you.  If not, that $2 is better spent upgrading a stud, or adding an additional kicker or defense.

After Ajayi, there are many RB's that still hold value on their own, and do not need injury to produce.  One thing to keep in mind though - you are not gonna make it to week 14 by rostering a bunch of value picks, unless those guys are actually on the field racking up the points.  You're gonna have to pony up the dough.  In last year's contest, every one of the top 25 teams had at least a RB that cost $26, and their second RB averaged about $20.

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10 hours ago, msudaisy26 said:

Now you have to factor the rest of us that can look at work and start messing with it at 8 am

Yup I have refrained from checking at work as much as possible so I don't get in the "Zone"...lol!

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At least Akrum Wadley is a good value. :wall:

I get it, not every player who might make a roster is going to be available, he was just one of my targets. Josh Adams made the cut but not Wadley?

What other players didn't make the cut that arguably should have?

Edited by -OZ-
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 Your team has been successfully entered.

QB - Philip Rivers - LAC/8 - $13
QB - Alex Smith - WAS/4 - $12
RB - Christian McCaffrey - CAR/4 - $26
RB - Jordan Howard - CHI/5 - $25
RB - Giovani Bernard - CIN/9 - $12
RB - Peyton Barber - TB/5 - $8
RB - Javorius Allen - BAL/10 - $7
RB - Frank Gore - MIA/11 - $6
WR - Michael Crabtree - BAL/10 - $19
WR - Chris Hogan - NE/11 - $17
WR - Allen Hurns - DAL/8 - $10
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $6
WR - John Brown - BAL/10 - $6
WR - Cole Beasley - DAL/8 - $5
WR - John Ross - CIN/9 - $5
WR - Trent Taylor - SF/11 - $3
WR - Jeremy Kerley - BUF/11 - $2
TE - Rob Gronkowski - NE/11 - $26
TE - Kyle Rudolph - MIN/10 - $16
TE - Jared Cook - OAK/7 - $8
PK - Josh Lambo - JAX/9 - $3
PK - Caleb Sturgis - LAC/8 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - NYJ/11 - $2
PK - Cody Parkey - CHI/5 - $2
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/8 - $3
TD - Washington Redskins - WAS/4 - $3
TD - Miami Dolphins - MIA/11 - $2

 

Well, that was easy compared to previous years.

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11 minutes ago, Rubi said:

I did it! 30 players right on the cap. Yesssssssss:banned:

 

something's gotta be wrong:loco:

What are the odds that the optimal lineup just happens to have 30 players and add up to exactly $250?  Seems unlikely, should probably keep tweaking.  :) 

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32 minutes ago, Rubi said:

I did it! 30 players right on the cap. Yesssssssss:banned:

 

something's gotta be wrong:loco:

You know you'll change it 100 more times, so just post your team already!

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10 hours ago, Steeler said:

Calcomatic.com is ready to go!:thumbup:

Right now it's in pre-season mode so 33 test entries are setup for testing/validation before the season starts.  Each NFL team is represented by a test entry and all the players in the contest from that team are assigned to that test entry.  So one test entry is made up of all PHI players, one test entry has all PIT players, etc.  So that accounts for 32 test entries and the last is all the players who are still an FA.

It looks like some of the scoring has changed from last year's contest so I'll use preseason to iron out any changes that I may have missed. If you see anything out of place let me know!   

Go CIN test team!!!

-QG

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4 hours ago, -OZ- said:

At least Akrum Wadley is a good value. :wall:

I get it, not every player who might make a roster is going to be available, he was just one of my targets. Josh Adams made the cut but not Wadley?

What other players didn't make the cut that arguably should have?

Kaep.

-QG

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