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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

I'm still in it with a core group of Wilson, Trubisky, McCaffrey, Conner, D.Adams, M.Thomas, O.J.Howard. 

So far, I've lost Lynch and missed on a couple of $3 players. On the plus side, all of my top players are past their bye weeks except for K and D. 

 
I'm still in it with a core group of Wilson, Trubisky, McCaffrey, Conner, D.Adams, M.Thomas, O.J.Howard. 

So far, I've lost Lynch and missed on a couple of $3 players. On the plus side, all of my top players are past their bye weeks except for K and D. 
Not bad - your only unused players total $6 (Foles and Hollister).  Good luck going forward.

 
101275

Still in this, happy to make the 3100.

My low cost QBs (Trubisky, Dalton, Darnold) are averaging almost 35 points per game and my TE strategy is working for now (Kelce, Ertz, Burton).

Love the thread, good luck to those still in the running!

 
Kicking off week 9 with SF vs OAK.  Cutting down to 2300.

QB - Carr (237)

RB - Breida (1120), Juszczyk (37), Martin (19), Richard (12), Washington (5)

WR - Goodwin (1351), Nelson (92), Pettis (34), Taylor (31), Garcon (20), Bryant (3)

TE - Kittle (282), Cook (175), Celek (13)

K - Carlson (418), Gould (299)

D - OAK (211), SF (46)

I will be rooting for Goodwin and Cook.

 
Still alive with Brees (199), Mahomes (1555), Jackson (64), Allen (206) - Gurley (808), Ingram (680), Thompson (592), White (662), Gore (99), Conner (2138) - Brown (280), Cooks (160), Taylor (197), Coutee (73), T Benjamin (31), Decker (9) - Engram (61), Clay (147), Goedert (760) - Gostkowski (175), Rosas (260) - Jags (288), Bills (124). Obviously can't win anything because lol landofthefree contest rules

 
Thru 8 weeks - 190.9 average, 199.80 high (W2), 173.15 low (W7).  No 200+ blowup weeks but extremely consistent (4 weeks in the 198's-199's)
 

QB:  Brees (4), Trubisky (4), Darnold (0) - Have gotten strong production out of this group (35+ 6 times, 50+ 2 times); little concerned about Brees' numbers lately and Taysom Hill being involved more than I'd like, but Trubisky has really picked up the slack.  Past both of their byes.  Darnold is likely a writeoff at this point.

RB:  McCaffrey (6), Conner (5), Brieda (4), Carson (3), Hyde (3), Ingram (2), Barber (2) - Very happy with this group so far, though it's not a very unique group.  Survived the Ingram suspension and the rookie RB threats haven't materialized (Penny, Jones).  Hyde is probably a writeoff at this point, but he held down the fort while Ingram was out.  Most bye weeks are out of the way with this group too.

WR:  Diggs (5), Edelman (4), Goodwin (2), Cole (2), Dorsett (2), T Taylor (2), Gallup (1), Ross (1), Marshall (1) - Extremely thin production though Edelman has been fantastic since he's returned.  Haven't gotten a flex score at WR since Week 4 and I don't see that changing in the near future.  Still need to survive bye weeks for Diggs and Edelman.  This position will probably be my undoing in the heavy elimination weeks.

TE:  Burton (4), Njoku (4), Goedert (3), Gates (0) - decent production for the money spent, Goedert has been a bargain and has really helped buoy the production in weeks where Burton and/or Njoku underperform.  Njoku and Goedert bye weeks pending.

K:  Lutz (5), Gould (3) - scored 15+ points 5 times, can't ask for much more from a 2 kicker roster

DE:  Bears (4), Browns (4) - the two highest owned defenses in the contest, just riding the wave here really

 
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I was just kidding, and I have Conner.  With my other RB's being DJ, CMC, Royce, Aaron Jones, and Barber, I hope the DJ owners get thinned out this week, as long as I ain't one of them.
Actually you don't want them thinned out.  When he does great, you'll advance regardless.  When he does bad, you'll have more people towing that anchor keeping the cutline lower.

 
Actually you don't want them thinned out.  When he does great, you'll advance regardless.  When he does bad, you'll have more people towing that anchor keeping the cutline lower.
Yes, you had mentioned this logic a few times in this thread already, and it makes sense.  In a perfect world, DJ would suck in week 13, eliminating all but me, because my awesome TE's Charles Clay and Ryan Griffin would blow up and be my flexes.  You never know, it could happen.

 
Of the 3112 remaining (this includes staffers), here is how they spent their $250 (I bolded my team):

QB - $11-$15 (27), $16-$20 (222), $21-$25 (693), $26-$30 (823), $31-$35 (670), $36-$40 (424), $41-$45 (139), $46-$50 (65), $51-$55 (27), $56-$72 (22)

RB - $36-$50 (29), $51-$60 (61), $61-$70 (265), $71-$80 (606), $81-$90 (938), $91-$100 (748), $101-$110 (346), $111-$120 (110), $121-$130 (20), $131-$147 (9)

WR - $20-$50 (45), $51-$60 (133), $61-$70 (401), $71-$80 (811), $81-$90 (857), $91-$100 (570), $101-$110 (216), $111-$120 (77), $121-$141 (12)

TE - $6-$10 (19), $11-$15 (103), $16-$20 (294), $21-$25 (487), $26-$30 (656), $31-$35 (603), $36-$40 (451), $41-$45 (273), $46-$50 (125), $51-$55 (48), $56-$85 (53)

K - $2-$4 (209), $5-$7 (1142), $8-$10 (1226), $11-$15 (499), $16-$34 (36)

D - $2-$4 (62), $5-$7 (446), $8-$10 (837), $11-$15 (1480), $16-$20 (337), $21-$33 (50)

 
Somehow still alive with this garbage. Survived by .95 last week. 

Drew Brees $18, Andy Dalton $6, Joe Flacco $5

David Johnson $34, Tevin Coleman $17, Royce Freeman $16, Peyton Barber $8, Chase Edmonds $3, Jeremy Hill $3

Tyreek Hill $23, Stefon Diggs $22, Brandin Cooks $19, Chris Godwin $6, Dede Westbrook $5, Taywan Taylor $4, TreQuan Smith $3

Jordan Reed $16, David Njoku $12, Tyler Eifert $9

Mason Crosby $4, Josh Lambo $3, Kaimi Fairbairn $2

Minnesota Vikings $7, Washington Redskins $3, Cleveland Browns $2

 
We are at the halfway point, so I decided to do some stats on defenses for the contest.  D scoring varies wildly from week to week, and year to year, so how many should you carry?  Are expensive D's worth their price?  Should you look more at the "easy" opponents, or concentrate more on the power of the D?  These are some questions I had before the contest, and ultimately I ended up spending $12 on a combo of CHI, PIT, and CLE.  In hindsight, I think I overspent, but time will tell.  I will post my findings at the end of the contest, but as it sits right now, it's very apparent expensive D's are not worth it.  I will give you a quick idea of how "not worth it" they are.  Consider these 2 sets of weekly scores:

13, 6, 12, 6, 5, 6, 15, 8   and    16, 7, 8, 7, 6, 3, 12, 5

The first group of numbers adds up to 70, for a weekly average of 8.75.  The second group of numbers adds up to 64, for a weekly average of 8.  The first set of numbers is what you would have by rostering all of JAX ($10), LAR ($8), and PHI ($8), which were the 3 most expensive D's ($26 total).  The second set?  The Browns, all by themselves, for $2. 

 
valhallan said:
Somehow still alive with this garbage. Survived by .95 last week. 

Drew Brees $18, Andy Dalton $6, Joe Flacco $5

David Johnson $34, Tevin Coleman $17, Royce Freeman $16, Peyton Barber $8, Chase Edmonds $3, Jeremy Hill $3

Tyreek Hill $23, Stefon Diggs $22, Brandin Cooks $19, Chris Godwin $6, Dede Westbrook $5, Taywan Taylor $4, TreQuan Smith $3

Jordan Reed $16, David Njoku $12, Tyler Eifert $9

Mason Crosby $4, Josh Lambo $3, Kaimi Fairbairn $2

Minnesota Vikings $7, Washington Redskins $3, Cleveland Browns $2
I also survived by about 1 point

QB - Rivers $13, Mahomes $11

RB - Barkley $28, D Freeman $25, Lynch $15, Barber $8, Breida $8

WR - Hilton $25, Diggs $21, R Anderson $14, Goodwin $13, Cole $7, Godwin $6

TE - Reed $16, Njoku $12, J Cook $8

K - Zuerlein $6, Sturgis $3, Fairbairn $2

D - CHI $5, DAL $3

I have $39 of dead money, Hilton has been banged up, Anderson and Goodwin have been busts.  And this week I have Barkley and Hilton on bye.  I am screwed.  Mahomes and Barkley have pretty much carried me.

 
We are at the halfway point, so I decided to do some stats on defenses for the contest.  D scoring varies wildly from week to week, and year to year, so how many should you carry?  Are expensive D's worth their price?  Should you look more at the "easy" opponents, or concentrate more on the power of the D?  These are some questions I had before the contest, and ultimately I ended up spending $12 on a combo of CHI, PIT, and CLE.  In hindsight, I think I overspent, but time will tell.  I will post my findings at the end of the contest, but as it sits right now, it's very apparent expensive D's are not worth it.  I will give you a quick idea of how "not worth it" they are.  Consider these 2 sets of weekly scores:

13, 6, 12, 6, 5, 6, 15, 8   and    16, 7, 8, 7, 6, 3, 12, 5

The first group of numbers adds up to 70, for a weekly average of 8.75.  The second group of numbers adds up to 64, for a weekly average of 8.  The first set of numbers is what you would have by rostering all of JAX ($10), LAR ($8), and PHI ($8), which were the 3 most expensive D's ($26 total).  The second set?  The Browns, all by themselves, for $2. 
I have 123 points from this $10 group:

Cincy $3, Jets $3, Cleveland $2, Oakland $2

-QG

 
Still cruising by the cut lines, thanks in large part to Mahomes and my RBs (Gurley, Barkley, Connor, Breida, K. Johnson, R. Freeman) and I've used everyone on my 28 man roster at this point with the single exception of EQ St. Brown ($2) and there's still at least a small chance for him.  Lost Fuller for the rest of the season but the rest of the squad is mostly healthy.  Some of the young talent I went with is starting to emerge, so there's hope.  Need some of the young receivers like Golladay and Ridley to amp up their games again.

 
I was foolish enough to take $3 TB, which hasn't contributed at all.  :bag:  However, I have gotten 97 pts. from $5 spent on Cincy & Cleveland.
That's 1 more pt than my CHI/PIT/CLE $12 trio.  I was doing the math.  Here is the best spent money so far on defenses:

$2 - CLE - 64 pts

$3 - CIN - 71 pts

$4 - CLE/MIA - 75 pts - as opposed to the highest single $4 team ARI, at 60 pts

$5 - CIN/CLE - 97 pts - as opposed to the highest single $5 team CHI, at 66 pts

$6 - CIN/NYJ - 103 pts - as opposed to the highest single $6 team DEN, at 60 pts, or any trio combo of $2 teams at 84 pts

$7 - CIN/CLE/OAK - 106 pts - as opposed to the highest single $7 team HOU, at 61 pts

$8 - CIN/NYJ/IND - 117 pts - as opposed to the highest single $8 team LAR, at 60 pts, or all 4 $2 teams at 85 pts

$9 - funny, but the $8 combo above qualifies as the best $9 combo also, there were no single $9 teams

$10 - CIN/NYJ/CLE/OAK - 123 pts (well done, QG) - as opposed to the only single $10 team JAX, at a whopping 39 pts (ranked #26, and was the 5th most common D at the start - 1790)

I am not going past $10, because there are just too many combos to calculate.

 
I was foolish enough to take $3 TB, which hasn't contributed at all.  :bag:  However, I have gotten 97 pts. from $5 spent on Cincy & Cleveland.
you never know - they might just save ya this week on the Bengals bye.  Even the Raiders defense managed to count for me once.

-QG

 
Kicking off week 9 with SF vs OAK.  Cutting down to 2300.

QB - Carr (237) = 9.05

RB - Breida (1120) = 5.20, Juszczyk (37) = 2.10, Martin (19) = 7.40, Richard (12) = 6.90, Washington (5) = 2.70

WR - Goodwin (1351) = 2.30, Nelson (92) = 3.60, Pettis (34) = 0.00, Taylor (31) = 0.00, Garcon (20) = 14.60, Bryant (3) = 6.60

TE - Kittle (282) = 22.80, Cook (175) = 5.00, Celek (13) = 0.00

K - Carlson (418) = 3.70, Gould (299) = 10.90

D - OAK (211) = 0.00, SF (46) = 8.00

So, only a few useful players tonight - Gould (299), Kittle (282), SF D (46), and Garcon (20).  Anyone having to use scores from any other player is hurting.

 
Yeah, with Cole, Westbrook, Ross and Goedert on byes and Stills not looking like he'll play, I was hoping for a usable score from Goodwin or at least a flex quality score from Cook. Now I need to actually root for John Brown against my Steelers, and hope that Gallup, Taywan Taylor or Jaron Brown somehow score some points. Since I clearly won't get any flex scores from my WRs, I'll also need 3 scores from my RBs (Conner, Zeke, CMC and Barber) and both Kelce and Hooper to have good games.  Of course, with Dalton's bye and Tannehill out, I also absolutely need a big game from Goff. Yuck.

ETA: what happened to the nested quote function? Haven't been able to do it since the most recent "upgrade".

 
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Yeah, with Cole, Westbrook, Ross and Goedert on byes and Stills not looking like he'll play, I was hoping for a usable score from Goodwin or at least a flex quality score from Cook. Now I need to actually root for John Brown against my Steelers, and hope that Gallup, Taywan Taylor or Jaron Brown somehow score some points. Since I clearly won't get any flex scores from my WRs, I'll also need 3 scores from my RBs (Conner, Zeke, CMC and Barber) and both Kelce and Hooper to have good games.  Of course, with Dalton's bye and Tannehill out, I also absolutely need a big game from Goff. Yuck.

ETA: what happened to the nested quote function? Haven't been able to do it since the most recent "upgrade".
Dodds says your weekly starters will be:

QB - Goff

RB1 - Zeke

RB2 - CMC

WR1 - John Brown

WR2 - Taylor (now that Goodwin put up 2.3 pts)

TE - Kelce

Flex1 - Conner

Flex2 - Hooper

K - Parkey

D - CLE

A very solid team, with the exception of WR2.  Your RB's will carry you to week 10.

 
Dodds says your weekly starters will be:

QB - Goff

RB1 - Zeke

RB2 - CMC

WR1 - John Brown

WR2 - Taylor (now that Goodwin put up 2.3 pts)

TE - Kelce

Flex1 - Conner

Flex2 - Hooper

K - Parkey

D - CLE

A very solid team, with the exception of WR2.  Your RB's will carry you to week 10.
Hope so. I've known from the beginning that Week 9 was a concern with 3 WR byes, but I figured with 6 teams having byes everyone would have some issues this week and I'd still have my two "best" WRs, Stills and Goodwin to take up the slack.  The best laid plans...

 
A few posts above, I discussed defenses.  Average is 6.34 pts/week.  Here are all 32 teams, ranked from most common to least common at the start of this contest (with a random fact or 2 about each):

CHI (3969) - 9.43 avg (#1) - How good is Mack?  In 6 games with him, CHI averages 10.83, in his 1 missed game vs NYJ, CHI scores just 1 pt

CLE (3351) - 8.00 avg (#5) - The only $2 D in the top 16, as a mass we nailed this pick

MIN (2256) - 7.38 avg (#13) - For $7, they were a swing and a miss

LAR (1806) - 7.50 avg (tied #10) - Not worth the $8, but at least they are 17 spots ahead of the only other $8 team

JAX (1790) - 4.88 avg (#25) - Most expensive team at $10, all the proof you need to avoid expensive D's

NE (1332) - 7.75 avg (#6) - Have come to life the last 2 weeks, they are a good example of being common based on "ease of opponent"

NO (1210) - 5.29 avg (#22) - The worst of the 3 $6 D's, scored 0 vs TB (every other team scored 6 or more vs TB)

PIT (1190) - 7.71 avg (#7) - Only team with a good game vs ATL (14 pts), next highest was 6

CIN (1174) - 8.88 avg (#2) - Perfect best ball D for $3, 4 boom games (10, 12, 20, 21) and 4 bust games (0, 1, 3, 4), highest survival rate at 30.83%

BAL (1162) - 5.13 avg (#23) - The worst of the 4 $7 D's, the only team with 0 pts in 2 weeks

OAK (1075) - 3.57 avg (#31) - Hooray for their 16 pts in week 4, boo for their combined 9 pts the rest of the season

ATL (1041) - 4.00 avg (#30) - League avg is 6.34, highest ATL has scored is 6

DAL (1027) - 4.43 avg (#28) - Along with BAL, proof that actual and fantasy defense are 2 separate things

DEN (1003) - 7.50 avg (tied #10) - Their 28 pts in week 7 catapulted them about 15 spots

LAC (988) - 5.71 avg (#20) - Another expensive team in the bottom half of the league, fairly consistent, but no boom games

ARI (986) - 7.50 avg (tied #10) - The best of the 6 $4 teams, based on ROS I see them dropping out of top half

KC (966) - 8.25 avg (#3) - Fantasy D good, actual D not so much, the #1 offense you don't want your D playing (only giving up avg 3 pts)

HOU (918) - 7.63 avg (#8) - The best of the 4 $7 D's, but still not worth it in best ball format

MIA (848) - 6.38 avg (#18) - Were near top 10 until 2 bad weeks in 7 & 8, I'll take a $2 team in the middle of the pack

GB (797) - 6.71 avg (#16) - A middle of the pack D for $4, won't really help or hurt you

TEN (767) - 5.00 avg (#24) - Number 24 overall is pretty bad, but there are 3 more $4 teams below them

PHI (538) - 4.50 avg (#27) - A total dud for $8, the only team without a bye that has yet to score over 6 pts, lowest survival rate at 10.41%

BUF (532) - 5.63 avg (#21) - For $3, this is why you carry multiple D's, 4 games totaling 8 pts, 4 games totaling 37 pts

IND (518) - 6.63 avg (#17) - Only $2, and right in the middle of the pack, overall a consistent D

TB (510) - 4.86 avg (#26) - Started good with 11 pts in week 1, but then pretty much turned into a pumpkin, no real harm for only $3

WAS (487) - 7.57 avg (#9) - As a mass, we missed the boat here, the only team to score at least 4 pts every week

CAR (451) - 7.14 avg (#15) - For $6 I want more than 2 good games, 2 bad games, and 3 average games

NYJ (449) - 8.13 avg (#4) - A $3 D, ranked #4, and the 28th most common D = we be dumb

DET (358) - 5.86 avg (#19) - The worst of the 6 $5 teams, the mass got this right

SF (316) - 4.13 avg (#29) - Overall, the $4 D's have turned out quite bad, and SF is no exception

NYG (298) - 3.00 avg (#32) - Less total pts in 8 weeks (24) than DEN had in week 7 alone (28), owners won't even know they're on a bye this week

SEA (277) - 7.29 avg (#14) - The least common team, but actually very consistent, still not worth $5

Yes, it's Saturday, and I am bored...

 
Just a few kicker questions about this contest...

1) What is an acceptable weekly average score, and

2) How many kickers will it take to get that?

Personally, I prefer to go with 3 cheap kickers, all on different byes.  As long as none of them lose their job or get hurt, I will have 2 options for 3 weeks, and 3 options for all the rest, including weeks 14 thru 16, if I make it that far.  To this point in the season, 26 out of 32 teams have only used 1 kicker.  The remaining 6 teams have either had their starter hurt, or have played kicker carousel, due to suckage.  The only thing about rostering the cheap kickers is you never know if they will keep their job, unless they are a decent kicker on a crappy team, i.e. Hauschka or Dawson.

 
I went with 4 Ds, this year, mostly because I think there is a lot of volatility in their scoring.

Chicago, Skins, Bucs, Browns

In hindsight, looks like not having the Bucs wouldn't have cost me much, but there are still many games left and at the time I didn't know if the Browns and Skins would work out as well as they have.

 
Should be OK this week just missing Coutee from QB/RB/WR, limited to just Clay/Gostkowski/Bills elsewhere but everyone else will hopefully compensate for that

 
I don't feel good about today. Hope I'm wrong made top 250 last year.


Truly will be a miracle if I sneak by this week!!!


This is when the carriage turns back into a pumpkin. Not liking this week at all. 


Really thin and weak at WR this week
I'm counting on enough people feeling exactly like this to mean I have a chance of slipping by even though I feel the same way...

 
The Chicago D is the only thing keeping me in this damn thing. My QB's havn't seen the field yet plus I still have Gurley and the meat of my WR's. 5pts below the cut line. There is still hope. 

 
The Chicago D is the only thing keeping me in this damn thing. My QB's havn't seen the field yet plus I still have Gurley and the meat of my WR's. 5pts below the cut line. There is still hope. 
So, you are at or near the cut, you still have all your QB pts, Gurley, and quality WR's, and you have hope?  Most of us are getting whaled!

 
WR's blowing chunks this week.  Will be counting on Lockett, Gallup, and Taywan Taylor.  Not an encouraging trio...

 
158.5 after the 1 PM games.  Melvin Gordon and maybe a kicker are the only movers left, but getting to next week makes this my best entry ever.

 
158.5 after the 1 PM games.  Melvin Gordon and maybe a kicker are the only movers left, but getting to next week makes this my best entry ever.
158.5 plus MG and a kicker will surely push you to week 10.  Congrats and good luck next week.

 
The Chicago D is the only thing keeping me in this damn thing. 
Today, Chi Def & Matt Ryan jumped me to be looking at next week....fortunately!!  Now at this cut point, every touch matters for your players. There can be no lapses if you hope to continue...

I am at 175 with Brees, Lutz & Tre’Quan still playing and A Cooper & Goedert only needling 6 to be of value!!

 

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