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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (6 Viewers)

Today, Chi Def & Matt Ryan jumped me to be looking at next week....fortunately!!  Now at this cut point, every touch matters for your players. There can be no lapses if you hope to continue...

I am at 175 with Brees, Lutz & Tre’Quan still playing and A Cooper & Goedert only needling 6 to be of value!!
Don't think Goedert is going to do you any good.

 
178 with plenty of room to score higher still.  Looks like this season will be a personal best now no matter what.

Are late season cut lines typically higher or lower?  Less teams should mean lower but better teams should mean higher... So which is it?

 
178 with plenty of room to score higher still.  Looks like this season will be a personal best now no matter what.

Are late season cut lines typically higher or lower?  Less teams should mean lower but better teams should mean higher... So which is it?
After the bye weeks they will move into the 160-180 range. 

 
178 with plenty of room to score higher still.  Looks like this season will be a personal best now no matter what.

Are late season cut lines typically higher or lower?  Less teams should mean lower but better teams should mean higher... So which is it?
I think it's more dependent on how many and which teams are on bye.  Baltimore, Denver, Houston & Minnesota next week doesn't sound like many highly owned high scorers, so I'm thinking a high cut line. 6 teams in Week 11 (Jets, Browns, Bills won't affect much, but Pats, Dolphins & SF might, so cut line may be lower.  Week 12 is only 2 teams but they're huge ones -KC & Rams have a ton of guys who have been carrying teams.  Week 13 after the byes is usually the highest of all the lines. It could hit 180, depending on scoring.

 
154.6 + (Zeke - 11.30/11.80/25.80) + (Dorsett/Gallup - 6.0/11.30/11.80)

19.35 above the cut line.

Hopefully Zeke makes me comfortable. :unsure:

-QG

 
100226 Rank: 2630 (Score: 124.35)

Cutoff Rank: 2300 (Score: 135.25)

Elliot, Graham and Patterson left need a miracle chasing 3.6 and 5 so Maybe

 
Just a few kicker questions about this contest...

1) What is an acceptable weekly average score, and

2) How many kickers will it take to get that?

Personally, I prefer to go with 3 cheap kickers, all on different byes.  As long as none of them lose their job or get hurt, I will have 2 options for 3 weeks, and 3 options for all the rest, including weeks 14 thru 16, if I make it that far.  To this point in the season, 26 out of 32 teams have only used 1 kicker.  The remaining 6 teams have either had their starter hurt, or have played kicker carousel, due to suckage.  The only thing about rostering the cheap kickers is you never know if they will keep their job, unless they are a decent kicker on a crappy team, i.e. Hauschka or Dawson.
I usually go with 3 kickers and 3 defenses, always the cheapest three  at each position ($6 at each position) that have unique byes within the group.  I've averaged 9.0/week for defenses and 11.3/week for kickers scoring.  some of that is random chance (like the Raiders 16 point week) with one teams big week not being the same week as another big week from my other defenses.  On the other hand, up until this week, I would have made the cut each week without any defense scoring.   This week i'll need the defense to survive and it would have been nice to have the bears.  

 
Patrick Mahomes $11
Baker Mayfield $4
Sam Darnold $3

Alvin Kamara $35
Tarik Cohen $17 
Carlos Hyde $14 
Peyton Barber $8 6
Matt Breida $8 

Adam Thielen $25
JuJu Smith-Schuster $21 
Jarvis Landry $19
Marquise Goodwin $13 
Anthony Miller $7
Chris Godwin $6 
Dante Pettis $4 

David Njoku $12
O.J. Howard $11 
Vance McDonald $8 

Ryan Succop $4 
Robbie Gould $4
Harrison Butker $4

 Chicago Bears $5 
Arizona Cardinals $4 
Dallas Cowboys $3 5.00 



Looks like about 185 this week so far.

Only Mayfield and Dallas D have yet to play.

 
Small roster cruising through another week.  10 is my team's second bye week concern with Thielen and two 2 others out.  Need to dodge a down week from my star players.  Good luck to our locals.

 
Sitting at 169 and still have J. Gordon -2 for rest of game. I should be moving forward. Wasn't looking good for a while and N. Vannett saved my week.

 
My second most expensive player is done for the year.  (Ajayi  $20)  But easily into next week.  Originally thought this could be a bad bye week.

 
Done with meaningful byes, onto the next one.

Would like to get get my third QB back.. even if it is just Tannehill.

 
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no improvement from Dorsett who equaled Godwin :(

154.6 + (Zeke - 11.30) + (Gallup - 6.00)

:scared:

Now only 8.35 above the cut.

-QG

 
M Gallup WR DAL 558

Cowboys DT DAL 190

C Beasley WR DAL 166

E Elliott RB DAL 151

D Prescott QB DAL 97

A Cooper WR DAL 84

R Smith RB DAL 77

A Hurns WR DAL 74

B Jarwin TE DAL 46

D Bailey PK DAL 42

T Austin RB DAL 39

T Williams WR DAL 34

G Swaim TE DAL 30

R Gathers TE DAL 17

C Davis WR TEN 279

T Taylor WR TEN 196

Titans DT TEN 171

R Succop PK TEN 80

M Mariota QB TEN 75

D Lewis RB TEN 74

D Henry RB TEN 59

D Walker TE TEN 41

R Matthews WR TEN 24

J Smith TE TEN 21

Feel free to edit.

So 2445 player games left tomorrow night.  Or only 0.79 players per team - or at the very least 21% of teams will have nobody playing tomorrow night.

-QG

 
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100226 Rank: 2630 (Score: 124.35)

Cutoff Rank: 2300 (Score: 135.25)

Elliot, Graham and Patterson left need a miracle chasing 3.6 and 5 so Maybe
Entry 100226 Rank: 2250 (Score: 147.35)

Cutoff Rank: 2300 (Score: 146.25)

Wow, now need a good score from Elliot, -5 and feel good about it

 
Sitting at 158.8 (1776th place) going into the Monday night game, 12.55 above the 146.25 cut line.

QB - Prescott (97), Mariota (76)

RB - Elliott (151), Smith (77), Lewis (74), Henry (59)

WR - Gallup (561), Davis (281), Taylor (197), Beasley (166), Cooper (84), Hurns (74)

TE - Jarwin (47), Swaim (30 - doubtful), Smith (23), Gathers (17)

K - Succop (80)

D - DAL (191), TEN (171)

39 Prescott and 44 Mariota owners have Mahomes, so the above numbers are more like 58 and 32.  50 DAL and 50 TEN owners have CHI D, so the above numbers are more like 141 and 121.  The cut line shouldn't move all that much (my guess is 5 pts at most), and I do have Gallup and Taylor, 2 of the 3 most common guys left.  Feeling good about advancing to week 10.  My WR's were horrible this week - Godwin (6.00), Lockett (5.20), John Brown (4.70), Goodwin (2.30), Cole (bye), Ross (bye), Ginn (IR), so I can still use Gallup or Taylor.

 
Then with Bell I tried to get clever; I figure that his holdout will depress his ownership but will probably blow over by week 5. That call could make or break me.


Bottom line: if Bell comes back strong then this team could be in good shape to compete down the stretch.
He didn't and I'm out (barring a Monday night miracle from Gallup of 30 + the line movement).

Bell was my big gamble and it wound up being a resounding failure. The obvious thing to do with PIT backfield was to skip $37 Bell and get $4 Conner and I did the reverse. I figured Bell would be back starting by week 5 but that didn't happen, so I had $37 putting up zeroes while tons of folks had $4 putting up strong RB1 numbers. On my 30-player roster, $37 Le'Veon Bell is the only guy who never cracked the starting lineup.

My smaller gamble was Jameis Winston, and that failed too. I took 4 QBs, but this week Dalton was on bye, Winston was benched, Allen was out injured, and that left me with 7.45 pts from Sam Darnold.

This was also a bad week all around for my 4 high-priced studs. Gronk has been having a disappointing year, and this week he joined Bell taking a 0. Gurley & Antonio Brown were solid this week but only solid. More than half my budget was spent on 4 guys, and they gave me 16.9, 15.2, 0, 0.

Nick Vannett gets the game ball this week with a team high 20.2 points in his first start. The defense and special teams did their part too, with 18 from the Dolphins D and 12.5 from Parkey. But it was not enough.

 
He didn't and I'm out (barring a Monday night miracle from Gallup of 30 + the line movement).

Bell was my big gamble and it wound up being a resounding failure. The obvious thing to do with PIT backfield was to skip $37 Bell and get $4 Conner and I did the reverse. I figured Bell would be back starting by week 5 but that didn't happen, so I had $37 putting up zeroes while tons of folks had $4 putting up strong RB1 numbers. On my 30-player roster, $37 Le'Veon Bell is the only guy who never cracked the starting lineup.

My smaller gamble was Jameis Winston, and that failed too. I took 4 QBs, but this week Dalton was on bye, Winston was benched, Allen was out injured, and that left me with 7.45 pts from Sam Darnold.

This was also a bad week all around for my 4 high-priced studs. Gronk has been having a disappointing year, and this week he joined Bell taking a 0. Gurley & Antonio Brown were solid this week but only solid. More than half my budget was spent on 4 guys, and they gave me 16.9, 15.2, 0, 0.

Nick Vannett gets the game ball this week with a team high 20.2 points in his first start. The defense and special teams did their part too, with 18 from the Dolphins D and 12.5 from Parkey. But it was not enough.
I loved your write up.  Putting $63 in the Bell/Gronk basket was a huge risk you were willing to take.  There were only 2 of you left, and the other is already gone, because he has no one left and under the cut.  At least you can say you were the last Bell/Gronk owner to get booted.

 
Feeling pretty good about week 9, so here is my roster for week 10 (cutting from 2300 to 1600):

QB - Ben, Rivers, Eli - missed the Mahomes bandwagon, but liking the Rivers vs OAK matchup, praying Eli keeps his job as a third option the rest of the way

RB - DJ, CMC, Royce, Aaron Jones, Barber, Conner - Jones asserting himself and Barber keeping his job, Royce hurt, overall very happy with this group

WR - Goodwin, Lockett, Cole, John Brown, Godwin, Gallup, Ross, Taywan Taylor, Ginn - held together by only a few, Brown off week 10 is scary

TE - Burton, Cook, Clay, Goedert, Griffin - expected more flex, happy main 3 already had their byes

K - Lambo, Sturgis, Fairbairn - leaning on cheapest kicker, Sturgis will be lucky to keep his job going forward

D - CHI, PIT, CLE - happy so far

 
Through as well.

Cook coming back should give me a big boost heading into some key byes.

I doubt my ability to make it to the top 250 unless my WRs turn it around

 
Dunno if I should get excited.  I went cheap with my QBs (Garoppolo/$12, Mahomes/$11, Mayfield/$4).

Spent my money on Rb's INCLUDING Conner @ $4.  Also have McCaffrey, Cook, Carson with Hill/Lynch out.

WR - Kupp, Thielen, T. Hill, Fuller (out).

TE - Olsen, Burton.

K - Zuerlein & Gotskowski

DST - Texans & Bears

Low Score: 161.70 (WK5); High Score: 220 (WK2); have gone 200+ 5 times including WK9.

Think WK12 will be my challenge w/Mahomes & T.Hill, Kupp on Bye.  Only Thielen left to play (Fuller OUT); will need to lean on the RB corp to pick up the slack.  Mayfield up against CIN WK12 so should be interesting.  Should be good to go if I survive WK12.

Best Value pick - Conner by far.  Pahomes as well.

 
I hope a lot of people are in bye week hell, because I’m going to need it this week.  Mahomes, CMC, Curtis Samuel, and Cordarrelle Patterson are all I really have that gave me anything beyond a handful of points. 

I think this this is my end.  I was prepared for the byes, but injuries on top of the ones I did have did me in. 

 
Out. Wrs killed me. Fuller injured, Beckham and Cole on bye and w mediocre performance from hill. Had to count stills and a zero from Cole this week due to the injuries and byes. 

Good luck to everyone left.

 
Losing 1 of my 2 QB's finally did me in on my QB bye. I could potentially move on if Michael Gallup has a gigantic night, but I'm not holding my breath. GG.

 
It is really getting tight!  The cut down to 2300 teams is thinning out the herd! 

At halftime of the NOS/LAR game, I was sitting at 175 pts and Rank 221 (and I have never finished in Top 200 so I was thrilled).

After the GB/NEP game,  my Rank went to 957 while my score only went to 177.... It felt like being passed on the highway by 90 mph drivers while I was tooling along at 55! 

While I still have A Cooper & D Henry, I feel good about advancing....  but DANG!  How many are going to burn out when LAR/KC on Week 12 bye! 

 
Out. Wrs killed me. Fuller injured, Beckham and Cole on bye and w mediocre performance from hill. Had to count stills and a zero from Cole this week due to the injuries and byes. 

Good luck to everyone left.
Bye's on top of Injuries can KILL a dream!  Tough spot.... 

 
About 3 points above the cut with Gallup and Taywan Taylor tonight, at -5 and -5.20 for the two spots.  Going to be tight.  Mixon bye and Freeman out hurt me.

 
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I’m still alive.

Entry 106352.

QB: Mahomes, Trubiski, Darnold, and Dalton

RB: McCaffrey, Conner, Miller, Cohen, Freeman

WR: Gordon, Watkins, Nelson, Beasley, Ross, Cole

TE: Graham, Gronk, Sefarian-Jenkins

K: Parkay, Fairbairn, Sturgis, Crosby

Defense: Bears, Dolphins, Browns, Packers

high score: 211.00 (week 2)

low score: 152.30 (week 7)

 
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I've only broken 200 once (week 2), but this will be my 6th week over 190, with the others all above 170.

McCaffrey came on. Mahomes carrying me all year, alongside Kelce. Gordon to NE has been a godsend. 

Interestingly, only 3 players have been used every week but one, with nobody used all 9 weeks:

Mahomes

Robert Woods

Travis Kelce

Conner and McCaffrey have only not scored twice.

My lowest week was 175, when cutoff was 156...and I actually needed Carr's 43 points over Mahomes' score to survive. If he only has that game and a good one in week 12 it will be the best waste of money I ever had in this contest.

 
Down 20 with Corey Davis to go tonight. So I'll miss the cut by at least 20 :yes:

I don't have a lot of regrets with my roster this year, but here's one:

SCREW YOU, MIAMI. HOW ABOUT YOU GIVE YOUR BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYER (DRAKE) MORE THAN FIVE TOUCHES PER GAME? SOUND GOOD? GREAT!

 
Don Quixote said:
About 3 points above the cut with Gallup and Taywan Taylor tonight, at -5 and -5.20 for the two spots.  Going to be tight.  Mixon bye and Freeman out hurt me.
3 pts above the cut would put you around 2182, so over 100 people would have to jump you.  I assume nearly all of the 151 Zeke owners will be using his score, so your hope is that most of them are already above you.

 
With Vannett's big day, I'm now down to the following players who have yet to contribute: Fournette ($29), James Washington ($4), D.J. Chark ($3), and Tampa D ($3)

I wonder if Fournette will actually get himself off my dead money list next.

 
I'm 22 over the cutline so I'm moving on!  Interesting fact, I have 10 WR on the team and only two are counting this week with a total of 16.3 points :lol:    It helps that Vannett and the Bears combined for 44 :thumbup:

But my team isn't going to make it too much further: http://calcomatic.com/EntryLive/109503

J. Winston was the key to my QBs so I'm in trouble with only A. Smith and J. Flacco at the moment.  Hopefully the magic in Fitz runs out again so Winston gets another chance.

E. Elliott, C. McCaffrey, J. Conner have been carrying the team - hopefully Bell is the backup to Conner if he actually reports.  Elliott could be a boon in the final 250 if I make it considering he is relatively low owned.

Shotgun approach to WR is working OK to advance in but leaves little hope of winning should I make it to the final 250 

I rolled with 5 TE this year and I'm pretty happy with this group

3 kickers with different bye weeks

Bears, Browns and Steelers has been a good D group

 
So, if Green misses a few weeks does it make John Ross relevant again? My WRs could use a shot in the arm.

 
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I'm 22 over the cutline so I'm moving on!  Interesting fact, I have 10 WR on the team and only two are counting this week with a total of 16.3 points :lol:    It helps that Vannett and the Bears combined for 44 :thumbup:

But my team isn't going to make it too much further: http://calcomatic.com/EntryLive/109503

J. Winston was the key to my QBs so I'm in trouble with only A. Smith and J. Flacco at the moment.  Hopefully the magic in Fitz runs out again so Winston gets another chance.

E. Elliott, C. McCaffrey, J. Conner have been carrying the team - hopefully Bell is the backup to Conner if he actually reports.  Elliott could be a boon in the final 250 if I make it considering he is relatively low owned.

Shotgun approach to WR is working OK to advance in but leaves little hope of winning should I make it to the final 250 

I rolled with 5 TE this year and I'm pretty happy with this group

3 kickers with different bye weeks

Bears, Browns and Steelers has been a good D group
Elliot owners :suds:

Whoa new smileys ?

:)

-QG

-QG

 
So, if Green misses a few weeks does it make John Ross relevant again? My WRs could use a shot in the arm.
Ross is just getting back to practice - was on the field today.

Boyd is the WR 1 - dunno if a healthy Ross will be in the circle of trust.

-QG

 

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