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Ignoratio Elenchi

2018 FBG Subscriber Contest

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I can't believe I'm still in this thing.

If I get by week #11, I have both QB's (Goff & Mahomes) on a bye. My 3rd QB was Jimmy G - obviously out.

Week #12 is probably it for me. 

Made the cut this week by 5 (Thanks Saquon & Zeke!)

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20 minutes ago, Bruce Leroy said:

I can't believe I'm still in this thing.

If I get by week #11, I have both QB's (Goff & Mahomes) on a bye. My 3rd QB was Jimmy G - obviously out.

Week #12 is probably it for me. 

Made the cut this week by 5 (Thanks Saquon & Zeke!)

Yup, you are toast in week 12.  FBG staff automatically eliminates any entry that does not have a starting QB.  :D

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On 11/12/2018 at 7:27 PM, spudgusta said:

Jesus Christo!  Hanging on at 167.25.  Only .10 over.... are there stat corrections here I have to worry about?  Sitting at 1598 out of 1600.

 

Squeaked in.  Hopefully don't have to sweat it again that close.  Need AJ Green back soon.

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Doing some hypotheticals today trying to see the cheapest team that could have survived this far.  So far I have the following $97 hypothetical team, let me know if you see a cheaper option that could be used and still remain:

Mitchell Trubiskey $7

Pat Mahomes $11

Aaron Jones $9

James Conner $4

James White $9

Chris Godwin $6

Zay Jones $3

Mohamed Sanu $7

John Brown $6

George Kittle $12

Eric Ebron $11

Aldrick Rosas $2

Cody Parkey $2

Chicago Bears $5

Buffalo Bill $3

 

(Obviously this is just 15 players, so add 3 random players for $6 to get to 18 if you are being a stickler)

Edited by Kenag122002

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32 minutes ago, Kenag122002 said:

Doing some hypotheticals today trying to see the cheapest team that could have survived this far.  So far I have the following $97 hypothetical team, let me know if you see a cheaper option that could be used and still remain:

Mitchell Trubiskey $7

Pat Mahomes $11

Aaron Jones $9

James Conner $4

James White $9

Chris Godwin $6

Zay Jones $3

Mohamed Sanu $7

John Brown $6

George Kittle $12

Eric Ebron $11

Aldrick Rosas $2

Cody Parkey $2

Chicago Bears $5

Buffalo Bill $3

 

(Obviously this is just 15 players, so add 3 random players for $6 to get to 18 if you are being a stickler)

Tyler Boyd ($3) should be on your list somehow.  He has more FF pts than all 4 of your WR's, and is currently WR15 in my league.

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Tyler Boyd ($3) should be on your list somehow.  He has more FF pts than all 4 of your WR's, and is currently WR15 in my league.

That's a great one.  He would replace Sanu and due to his points I'd no longer need the Bears.  So that would bring the roster down to $88.

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55 minutes ago, QuizGuy66 said:

Gotta be able to lose $ in TEs Kenag

-QG

I thought so too, but Kittle and Ebron are both top 5 and the only TEs better are expensive (Kelce/Ertz).  You could drop down to the Cook/Burton/Howard tier but you dont save much $ and there's enough of a dropoff in production that I can't find a way to stay above the cut line without adding more $ in other areas than I'd save.

Edited by Kenag122002

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I keep making the cut in the most unimpressive fashion each week.

Never near the top in a given week (highest score 203), just comfortably over by double digits+ every week but one (week 8 by 5 points).

eta - hopefully saving my breakout for the coming run!

Edited by matuski

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26 minutes ago, matuski said:

I keep making the cut in the most unimpressive fashion each week.

Never near the top in a given week (highest score 203), just comfortably over by double digits+ every week but one (week 8 by 5 points).

eta - hopefully saving my breakout for the coming run!

Man, I am in the same boat....  unimpressive, but advancing....  Above cut each week (average +27) but week 8 was close (+8).   My highest was 203 in Week 6. 

Need more of a breakout to expect to advance as we get into the final rounds

 

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Try to name your rarest "performing" combo of QB, RB, WR, TE...

For me it's Ben Roethlisberger (used 7X), David Johnson (used 6X), Tyler Lockett (used 8X), and Jared Cook (used 4X) - shockingly, only team from the start

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23 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

Try to name your rarest "performing" combo of QB, RB, WR, TE...

QB Rivers (5x), pick one of RB Gurley (10x), Gordon (7x), Conner (5x), John Brown (4x), Hooper (7x)

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2 minutes ago, lsutigers said:

QB Rivers (5x), pick one of RB Gurley (10x), Gordon (7x), Conner (5x), John Brown (4x), Hooper (7x)

With Conner it's 18 teams left, Gurley it's 3, and Gordon it's 3 also

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1 hour ago, TheWinz said:

Try to name your rarest "performing" combo of QB, RB, WR, TE...

 

I'm the only team (from the start) with M Trubisky (6), M Gordon (8), J Landry (8), T Kelce (9).
Replace M Gordon (8) with D Johnson (8) and I'm one of two teams (from the start).  Incidentally, we're both still alive.

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I'm the only team with M Ryan (6), J Conner (8), T Hill (9) and Z Ertz (8) who are all my top performers at QB/RB/WR/TE

McCaffrey (6) is also unique when replacing Conner.   And E Ebron (6) at TE as well in place of Ertz.

Edited by Kenag122002

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13 minutes ago, RenegadeGM said:

Still alive and hoping to squeeze every last point out of Aaron Jones tonight!

Yup, Aaron Jones is doing his part.  Just need Lockett to get some action now.

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13 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Try to name your rarest "performing" combo of QB, RB, WR, TE...

For me it's Ben Roethlisberger (used 7X), David Johnson (used 6X), Tyler Lockett (used 8X), and Jared Cook (used 4X) - shockingly, only team from the start

I'd still consider Stafford "performing" even though he's only counted twice.  Am the only entry left with Stafford, Marvin Jones, and Zeke.

I'll look at some other combos in a bit.

Vannett was a yard from being useful tonight :(

-QG

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On ‎11‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 10:11 PM, TheWinz said:

Starting out week 11 with Packers vs Seahawks on Thursday night:

QB - Rodgers (38) - 28.90, Wilson (11) - 23.85

RB - Carson (262) - 14.30, Jones (195) - 24.80, Williams (98) - 0.50, Penny (8) - 4.60

WR - Lockett (278) - 12.20, Adams (185) - 26.60, St. Brown (9) - 2.60, Baldwin (6) - 18.20

TE - Graham (97) - 2.80, Vannett (88) - 3.20, Dickson (4) - 9.00

K - Crosby (183) - 6.60, Janikowski (102) - 11.20

D - GB (80) - 5.00, SEA (20) - 5.00

Cut line sits at 2.80

 

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I went cheap on QBs. I'm the only team left with only these 3 QB's

Alex Smith $12
Andy Dalton $6
Sam Darnold $3

On my 30 man team, only James Washington and Sproles have never been used, though John Ross just counted for the 1st time last week. I have no week 12 bye players. 

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21 hours ago, TheWinz said:

Try to name your rarest "performing" combo of QB, RB, WR, TE...

For me it's Ben Roethlisberger (used 7X), David Johnson (used 6X), Tyler Lockett (used 8X), and Jared Cook (used 4X) - shockingly, only team from the start

QB Trubisky (6X), McCaffery (8X), Hopkins (9X), Ertz (9X) - Only team to have this combo since the beginning (101275)

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Just now, matuski said:

I'm over the cut line by 30 - should be safe right?

On the other hand, I'm 2.8 below, so I'm probably out.

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24 minutes ago, apalmer said:

On the other hand, I'm 2.8 below, so I'm probably out.

I'd actually rather be 2.8 below than 2.8

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60% survival rate 3 of 5 teams left with my top $ QB,RB,WR,TE

Big Ben, Melvin Gordon, AB, Trey Burton

 

Only team left with Melvin Gordon, AB, Thielen

Shuffle in Edelman for any of these 3 and I think it's still unique.

 

Effective combo with the same QB,RB,WR,TE combo:

83.33% survival rate 5 of 6 teams with Goff, Connor, Thielen, Burton

 

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On 11/15/2018 at 9:29 AM, TheWinz said:

Try to name your rarest "performing" combo of QB, RB, WR, TE...

For me it's Ben Roethlisberger (used 7X), David Johnson (used 6X), Tyler Lockett (used 8X), and Jared Cook (used 4X) - shockingly, only team from the start

 

My rarest performing combo:  Mahomes (9X), Zeke (9X), Sanders (9X), and Gronk (3X).  Only one left out of 3.  My early season weakness is now my strength: RBs:  Zeke, DJ, Jones, Conner, Barber

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Here are the extinct players from the contest (# of original owners in parenthesis, and I have bolded any player to actually score points):

QB - AJ McCarron (12), Jacoby Brissett (16 - technically scored, but it was negative 0.40 in week 7))

RB - DeAngelo Henderson (11), Elijah McGuire (13), Justin Jackson (17), Derrius Guice (37), Travaris Cadet (39), Ito Smith (39), Jonathan Stewart (47), Ronald Jones (82)

WR - Kendall Wright (16), J'Mon Moore (39)

TE - Braedon Bowman (6), Michael Roberts (7), Julius Thomas (26)

K - None

 

And here are alive players who have yet to score any points (# of remaining owners in parenthesis):

QB - None

RB - Jerick McKinnon (1), Terrance West (1), Joe Williams (4), LeVeon Bell (6), D'Onta Foreman (6), Thomas Rawls (9), John Kelly (99)

WR - Dez Bryant (1), Deon Cain (1), Amara Darboh (1), Marquise Lee (2), Eric Decker (3), Kenny Britt (6), Mike Wallace (32)

TE - Stephen Anderson (3), Adam Shaheen (13)

K - Kai Forbath (10), Eddy Pineiro (25)

 

Most shocking name on the list has to be Ito Smith.  How could a $2 RB, owned by 39 from the start, become extinct while scoring 62.80 points?  He is actually RB44 in terms of scoring in this contest, and for only $2.  Granted, he was only owned by 39, but the odds of him becoming extinct have to be astronomical.

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33 minutes ago, TheWinz said:

 

Most shocking name on the list has to be Ito Smith.  How could a $2 RB, owned by 39 from the start, become extinct while scoring 62.80 points?  He is actually RB44 in terms of scoring in this contest, and for only $2.  Granted, he was only owned by 39, but the odds of him becoming extinct have to be astronomical.

The biggest reason is that people taking him as their cheap long-shot didn't take the other cheap long-shot. Only 7 of those 39 also took Conner. 

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35 minutes ago, apalmer said:

The biggest reason is that people taking him as their cheap long-shot didn't take the other cheap long-shot. Only 7 of those 39 also took Conner. 

I love that you took the time to use the querier.  Isn't it fun?  I am just amazed that 39 different entries with Ito managed to get knocked out when the survival rate is still 10.63%.  OK, now I have to compile and post some more stats on defenses in this contest.  I am having a blast using the querier this year.  Perhaps I have too much time on my hands.

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Stats on defenses in this contest so far:

- The average score so far from D's is 6.19 pts/game

- CHI ($5) is far and away the best and most consistent D, averaging 11.3 pts/game (under 6 pts only once); the next closest average is MIN ($7) at 8.56 pts/game (4 pts or less 4 times).  Just how consistent and good has CHI been, you ask?  If you chose JAX ($10), PHI ($8), BAL ($7), LAC ($7), CAR ($6), NO ($6), DET ($5), SEA ($5), ATL ($4), NYG ($4), SF ($4), TEN ($4), DAL ($3), TB ($3), and IND ($2), for a total of $78, you would still average .2 pts/game LESS than CHI.  That's right - CHI is averaging more on their own than 15 D's combined!

- Worst D is a tie between NYG and OAK at 3.11 pts/game, but I have to give the nod to NYG for 2 reasons.  First, they cost twice as much as OAK, and second, their highest week was only 7 pts.  But I can't let OAK off the hook, because without their 16 pt game in week 4, they have a grand total of 12 pts in the other 8 weeks combined.  PHI and ATL are the only teams that have not scored over 6 pts in a game.

- So, which offenses give up the most points in this contest?  BUF and TB stand on top, and by a decent margin.  BUF has held 3 opponents to a total of 7 pts, but have surrendered 95 pts to the other 7 opponents (13.57 pts/game).  They top the list with an overall 10.2 pts/game given up.  TB is not far behind at 9.78 pts/game.  Ironically, TB gave up no points in week 1 vs the Saints, but then collapsed, averaging 11 pts/game to opposing D's.

- Finally, which offenses do you not want your D going up against?  Not surprising, it's the Chiefs and the Rams.  KC is only giving up 3.3 pts/game, and LAR is right behind at 3.4 pts/game.  KC has yet to give up 6 pts, and LAR has only done it once, when they gave up just 7.  The only other teams giving up less than 4 pts/game are NO (3.44) and WAS (3.67).

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On 11/15/2018 at 7:29 AM, TheWinz said:

Try to name your rarest "performing" combo of QB, RB, WR, TE...

For me it's Ben Roethlisberger (used 7X), David Johnson (used 6X), Tyler Lockett (used 8X), and Jared Cook (used 4X) - shockingly, only team from the start

Manning 4x Lockett 7x Howard 7x and any of RBs Elliott 7x, Barkley 9x, McCaffery 8x all only one left

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I'd say my most unique combo of useful players is Rivers, Zeke, McCaffrey, Burton.  Only 2 live entries left with those (out of an original 14)

-QG

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WR's in the early games may decide my fate for week 11.

Brown vs CIN - healthy, could really use him

Godwin vs NYG - questionable, but expected to play

Ross vs BAL - questionable, but expected to play; Green likely out

Gallup vs ATL - healthy, but TD dependent to have any fantasy relevance

Cole vs PIT - healthy, but getting totally phased out

Already have 12.2 pts from Lockett, just hoping for a double-digit game from one of these guys.  With Ginn on IR, Taywan Taylor out, Goodwin on bye, and Cole losing snaps, my 9 deep and cheap WR corps has me nervous every week.  In hindsight, I should've rostered at least 1 stud.  I had Tyreek on most of my submissions, and he was the only WR over $20 I considered, but in the end went with 9 hopefuls.  I figured 9 would be plenty, and it probably would've been, if I had chosen a bit better.  Trio of Lockett, Brown, and Godwin have been used 21 times; my remaining 6 WR's have only counted 9 times.

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2 hours ago, TheWinz said:

WR's in the early games may decide my fate for week 11.

Brown vs CIN - healthy, could really use him

Godwin vs NYG - questionable, but expected to play

Ross vs BAL - questionable, but expected to play; Green likely out

Gallup vs ATL - healthy, but TD dependent to have any fantasy relevance

Cole vs PIT - healthy, but getting totally phased out

Already have 12.2 pts from Lockett, just hoping for a double-digit game from one of these guys.  With Ginn on IR, Taywan Taylor out, Goodwin on bye, and Cole losing snaps, my 9 deep and cheap WR corps has me nervous every week.  In hindsight, I should've rostered at least 1 stud.  I had Tyreek on most of my submissions, and he was the only WR over $20 I considered, but in the end went with 9 hopefuls.  I figured 9 would be plenty, and it probably would've been, if I had chosen a bit better.  Trio of Lockett, Brown, and Godwin have been used 21 times; my remaining 6 WR's have only counted 9 times.

WR this week is exactly my dilemma too. Edelman (bye), Goodwin (bye), Lockett(12.2), Ross, T. Taylor (out), Wallace (out), cole (phased out), Gallup. Just need one decent game out of ross or gallup. Ross just needs to break one big play. My strength is at RB/TE, so hopefully that can carry me through this week.  QB was too, but losing flacco just leaves me Big Ben and Dalton. Ok with it, but dont love it. This is my make or break week. Nobody on bye next week...

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It's 2:25 Sunday afternoon and I know I'm going to be out this week.  My studs are sucking and my only QB playing today is A. Smith... lol... he might end up with negative points so someone on bye might actually "score" for me today.

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My first half MVP is Josh Lambo with 12.90 points.  All my other players blow chucks.

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Cut line is real low so far. Not a lot of teams are scoring (except the Colts)

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Only 12 offensive TDs so far. That's low for 14 teams playing at once.

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It’s been my best year ever, but time to bow out gracefully.  I’m 18 below the cut after the 1pm games.  

Trubisky -8.05

DJohnson, MGordon and RFreeman - 7.90 and 18

Kelce -3.2

Bears - everything counts

 

Not enough bullets in the gun to make it to week 12...

 

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I think I'm out as well.  Have some guys left (and three QBs playing), but I'm a fair amount behind the cut line and some of the guys I have left are popular players.  Unless one of my lesser guys blow up, that's probably it for me.

I'm a Conner owner, so there's that for the rest of you :)

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134.75 after 1pm games which while nice still has me nervous as I really don't have much left (no real investment in KC/LAR).  Quite possible this will be my finishing number.

 

134.75 + (Rivers - 25.45) + (Freeman/Kelly(who won't play) - 7.90/14.00/18.00) + (Dorsett - 7.90/8.00) + (Burton/Seals-Jones - 3.20/7.90/14.00) + (Butker - 13.90) + (Raiders - 4.00)

Hope that cut line stays nice and low.

-QG

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140.4 after early games.  Only players left are:

QB - Rivers (-30.80)

RB - DJ (-14.00)

TE - Burton, Cook, & Goedert -  need a TE score + flex (-8.00)

D - CHI (-.8.00)

 

I will be lucky to reach 155 - 160.

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49 minutes ago, Vegas123 said:

Entry 100226 Rank: 3 (Score: 180.15)

Unreal but ill take it no week 12 byes

Entry 100509 Rank: 2 (Score: 185.95)

haha.. we are peaking early.

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Raiders actually have gotten 1 extra point - anything else they get counts.  Rivers now 0.60 from moving ahead of Dalton and starting to count for me.  Here's hoping.

-QG

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