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Ignoratio Elenchi

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3 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

I’m barely hanging on.  Really need a couple Hopkins receptions.  

I'm with you albeit in another league but I'd take a 30 yd reception.

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One of these years, I'll make it past the Week 12 cut...

...best of luck to the Final 500! AMF (Adios, my friends)!!!

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7 points added to my score by Fairbairn left me 5.9 over the cut.  Special thanks also to Ryan Tannehill, who became the last member of my team to contribute, at just the right time.

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On 11/24/2018 at 11:32 PM, strawb said:

Still alive, but with a healthy share of byes.  Feeling some hope knowing most of the field also has Mahomes on bye too, but I have to rely on some heavy Broncos offense tomorrow to sneak by.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/108973.php

Still alive with a 185 but lost Gordon with the MCL and already thin at RB with only drafting 4.  Still happy to be here. 

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On 11/22/2018 at 8:25 AM, Raleigh Engineers said:

My team is still alive and has only been close to the cut once (week 10, survived by 5 points).  The 50% cuts for the next two weeks are going to be brutal!  And the Rams/Chiefs bye this week make things even more interesting.  I have Mahomes and Gurley... 😧

Finished 10 points above the cut....moving on to week 13!

 

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The last of the staff entries have bitten the dust. Dodds finishes at #509.

The last of my Dopplegangers has also been eliminated. There were originally 7 teams with my 4 stud RBs (Zeke, CMC, DJ and Conner), now I'm alone. Interestingly, the one eliminated this week also had my #5 RB (Barber).

Edited by apalmer

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9 hours ago, cjack said:

Missed the cut by .15.  Damn.

I feel your pain!  I was kicked to the curb last week by 0.4 

For some reason it hurts more when it's close.....  you consider all the "what if" scenarios....  even if somebody had just fell forward!  

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14 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Two has won more often than not, three will work.  When you get to four, you would have been better off point wise with 2 more Ds and Ks to throw at the dart board.  Things may skew this year with all the cheap QBs generating good numbers.

I've tried 2 in the past and can't see myself doing that again. It's like karma says, "Oh, only 2 QBs? Let's time the injury to QB 2 so that it coincides with QB 1's bye." I'd have been eliminated this week with Dalton's injury during Goff's bye without the timely appearance of Tannehill.

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2 QB is too big a risk IMO.  Injury, Bye weeks, and bad matchups all had me using 3 QBs.  I hit on 2 of the 3 (Carr wasted $), but unless you find the low cost paydirt (Mahones), it is a challenge to balance the positions.  I made the mistake of "middle of the road RB's" who just did not perform well enough.  

The fact only 3 QB's missed time is a little less than average IMO.  No data, just going on memory. 

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Last 4 years cutline for week 13. 

2014 161

2015 181

2016 161

2017 165

Average 167

With scoring up this year,  I’m thinking we are looking at a high 170 or 180 cut this week. 

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13 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

2 QB is too big a risk IMO.  Injury, Bye weeks, and bad matchups all had me using 3 QBs.  I hit on 2 of the 3 (Carr wasted $), but unless you find the low cost paydirt (Mahones), it is a challenge to balance the positions.  I made the mistake of "middle of the road RB's" who just did not perform well enough.  

The fact only 3 QB's missed time is a little less than average IMO.  No data, just going on memory. 

You're trying to beat 15000 people in a game, things are going to have to break your way to win.  I'm pretty sure you could find places spending that Carr money could have gotten you that 0.4 of a point you needed.

I'm not going to die on this hill this year since Dodds handed out QBs like Halloween candy this year.

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3 minutes ago, Ty_Webb said:

Last 4 years cutline for week 13. 

2014 161

2015 181

2016 161

2017 165

Average 167

With scoring up this year,  I’m thinking we are looking at a high 170 or 180 cut this week. 

#250 this week was 186.25, and that's with KC and the Rams on bye with all their high-scorers. I think 180 is a minimum, and I won't feel comfortable unless I'm at 200.

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11 hours ago, chet said:

I'm at 202 which is close to my highest score of the year.  But I'm a MG owner so my prospects are dim for week 13.  That being said, this is by far the farthest I've ever made it so I've got that going for me.

ETA:  I'm in 202nd spot and have 186 points. I'm on a 4hr plane ride and misread the webpage after several drinks.  Sorry if I misled anyone.

I finished in 176th with 194 points.  I too rely on Gordon.  And Fournette (since he came back).  Both out this week, plus I'm missing OJ Howard and Will Fuller for the rest of the season and they were big contributors.

 

I'm thinking I'm now a long shot to make the final 250, too many of my big time contributors are on the shelf.  I'm sitting here hoping Taywan Taylor and Tre-Quan Smith get healthy enough to give me the smallest outside chance.

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Just now, Birdie048 said:

2 QB is too big a risk IMO.  Injury, Bye weeks, and bad matchups all had me using 3 QBs.  I hit on 2 of the 3 (Carr wasted $), but unless you find the low cost paydirt (Mahones), it is a challenge to balance the positions.  I made the mistake of "middle of the road RB's" who just did not perform well enough.  

The fact only 3 QB's missed time is a little less than average IMO.  No data, just going on memory. 

3? This week alone, Smith, Trubisky, Darnold, Flacco and Dalton missed time.

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Post KC/LA bye week survivals. 

Still 321 out of 500 Mahomes owners left

Gurley owners down to 55 (I’m one of those)

Hunt 21

Goff 98

Kelce 37 

 

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2 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

I feel your pain!  I was kicked to the curb last week by 0.4 

For some reason it hurts more when it's close.....  you consider all the "what if" scenarios....  even if somebody had just fell forward!  

Yep, or if dipwad Shurmur wouldn’t have completely ignored Barkley in the second half this week.

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I'm surprised to see there are only 38 teams left with Zeke, and only 3 with Zeke and Kelce.  That's a couple of potentially huge scorers with low ownership, so I'm hoping they're my difference makers (even though I'm one of only 11 Tannehill owners left, I doubt he'll be the guy).

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4 minutes ago, apalmer said:

I'm surprised to see there are only 38 teams left with Zeke, and only 3 with Zeke and Kelce.  That's a couple of potentially huge scorers with low ownership, so I'm hoping they're my difference makers (even though I'm one of only 11 Tannehill owners left, I doubt he'll be the guy).

I have Zeke and Tanny

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How many Zeke + CMC + owners left?  How many Zeke + CMC + J. Conner owners left?

I likely need all three of these guys to be huge down the stretch to make up form deficiencies at QB (only Winston) and WR (shotgun approach works during the "regular season" but is limiting during the finals).

 

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Just now, Steeler said:

How many Zeke + CMC + owners left? 23 How many Zeke + CMC + J. Conner owners left? 18

I likely need all three of these guys to be huge down the stretch to make up form deficiencies at QB (only Winston) and WR (shotgun approach works during the "regular season" but is limiting during the finals).

 

BTW, I'm one of the 18

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1 hour ago, apalmer said:

3? This week alone, Smith, Trubisky, Darnold, Flacco and Dalton missed time.

Thanks.....  I knew it sounded bad when I read it after posting... while I am not sure Flacco or Darnold count.....but I see your point.... 

I was thinking specifically Wentz early, Smith & Trubisky. 

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Just now, Birdie048 said:

Thanks.....  I knew it sounded bad when I read it after posting... while I am not sure Flacco or Darnold count.....but I see your point.... 

I was thinking specifically Wentz early, Smith & Trubisky. 

Not to mention Jimmy G.

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Is this the time to look at some "flyers" who could provide some separation? 

Candidates to Monitor:  (not sure of their %) Players values have changed based on injury or trades.....

QB: Clev Mayfield; Buf J Allen; SF N Mullens

RB: Den Lindsay; Oak J Richard; Phi J Adams

WR: Car DJ Moore; Det Galladay; Dal A Cooper

TE: Ten J Smith; LAR G Everett; NOS D Arnold

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15 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Is this the time to look at some "flyers" who could provide some separation? 

Candidates to Monitor:  (not sure of their %) Players values have changed based on injury or trades.....

QB: Clev Mayfield; Buf J Allen; SF N Mullens

RB: Den Lindsay; Oak J Richard; Phi J Adams

WR: Car DJ Moore; Det Galladay; Dal A Cooper

TE: Ten J Smith; LAR G Everett; NOS D Arnold

Mullens, Lindsay and Arnold weren't options available. No live teams have Adams. 2 teams have Richard

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2 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

Is this the time to look at some "flyers" who could provide some separation? 

Candidates to Monitor:  (not sure of their %) Players values have changed based on injury or trades.....

QB: Clev Mayfield; Buf J Allen; SF N Mullens

RB: Den Lindsay; Oak J Richard; Phi J Adams

WR: Car DJ Moore; Det Galladay; Dal A Cooper

TE: Ten J Smith; LAR G Everett; NOS D Arnold

No, With 500 teams left, soon to be 250, everyone's roster is unique enough to have separation.

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24 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

No, With 500 teams left, soon to be 250, everyone's roster is unique enough to have separation.

That may be true, but are there players with low % of ownership that have started to perform above expectations?   Players who were taken as flyers and are now in key roles due to injuries, trades or based off of performance? 

I guess this could be looked at like a "WW Target" ownership question. 

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3 hours ago, Ty_Webb said:

Only 5 Brees/Gurley owners and 1 Brees/Gurley/Barkley owners, which is me.

I was a Mahomes/Gurley/Barkley owner, but I was doomed this week by .15 points. Ugh!

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If Lambo could hit a 40 yard field goal i'd still be in. Ah well, was a great year. Always take 3 kickers, lesson learned.

Edited by mbuehner

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Jameis Winston 26

Eli Manning 58 

Joe Flacco 47 

Ezekiel Elliott 38 

Saquon Barkley 113

Christian McCaffrey 343

Royce Freeman 189

Peyton Barber 289

Will Fuller 43

Marquise Goodwin 191

Tyler Lockett 93

Paul Richardson 5

John Brown 177

John Ross 190

Cordarrelle Patterson 50

Jimmy Graham 25

O.J. Howard 21

Austin Hooper 73

Dustin Hopkins 46

Sebastian Janikowski 35

Kaimi Fairbairn  140

Chicago Bears 237

Washington Redskins 23

Cleveland Browns 172

Name and number left

Bold out 

Not sure Ive got a path to 250 but made it this far, go Winston and Elliot 

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1 hour ago, mbuehner said:

If Lambo could hit a 40 yard field goal i'd still be in. Ah well, was a great year. Always take 3 kickers, lesson learned.

Funny, I just went back to look at how I was eliminated (due to the MNF LAR/KC FF Feast!) Week 11 ....

It came down to my TE's....  Burton & Hooper & Goedert  

Hooper & Burton have a  season Combined average = 25.5 pts....  And Week 11, their total was 11 pts.... 

Thus designating me to the roadside but 0.5 pts. 

 

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2 hours ago, mbuehner said:

55% of the remaining Mahomies bit it this week 👀

:shrug: 50% of all remaining teams bit  it this week. Not surprising that guys on bye were slightly more likely to do so.

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4 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

That may be true, but are there players with low % of ownership that have started to perform above expectations?   Players who were taken as flyers and are now in key roles due to injuries, trades or based off of performance? 

I guess this could be looked at like a "WW Target" ownership question. 

Like Chubb and Lamar Jackson?  Cause I drafted both just for that late season pop.

 

Too bad over 20% of my roster dollars will be in the sideline this weekend with Gordon hurt and Fournette suspended. I'm likely a dead man walking.

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