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2018 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Ignoratio Elenchi
- Start date
Raleigh Engineers
Footballguy
#47 with 344.20
Birdie048
Footballguy
WOW.... you might have had a down Week 15 game, but you scrapped by in Week 5 (advanced by 0.15)
Congrats on making it this far!! And who knows... Ballage & Kelly could separate you!
No shot for anything good but it has been a great contest this year. Last week was my worst week of the season by around 50 points. Dropped from 60th to 161st , totally went the wrong direction. At least the next season package will be paid for. Good luck to those fighting at the top.
Birdie048
Footballguy
This would be an interesting point.... but the rules identify all scores final as of Tuesday evening at 11:59 pm.
Otherwise, there could be issues going back to other changes.
apalmer
Footballguy
BillyJoeBob
Footballguy
Currently in 2nd overall (http://calcomatic.com/EntryLive/101275) with nobody left on Monday night. Gonna be a good finish, but cant win it all.
Good luck to those still in contention.
Love this contest.
Good luck to those still in contention.
Love this contest.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Congrats man. Great run. I only saw one guy with a chance to pass you and didn't think it was likely IMO.
apalmer
Footballguy
Think I need to rename my team "The Steelers" -- averaged 200 pts/week for the first 14 weeks of the contest and was in 12th place after the first week of the finals. Scored an awful 150 last week (my lowest score of the year) with only 140 plus Cook -9.4 left this week. That noise you hear in the background is 27 guys on my team choking.
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No kidding! I finished #10 a few years back and started looking through the rules to see how much of that $35,000.00 I had won. Wait, what?? $75 for finishing 10th
???
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
Got that right.....figured this out after I finished top 100 two of three years a few years back
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That’s why I’ve been a 2 an proponent in most years. Chose right and use those $ elsewhere. One of the top 5 guys took a zero at the this week. Ouch
Raleigh Engineers
Footballguy
I finished right behind you at #111. Definitely a fun year, albeit a disappointing final three weeks. Connor/Gurley injuries hurt my chances, plus my year-long weakness at WR/TE besides Nuk.
http://calcomatic.com/EntryLive/103125
Interseptopus
Footballguy
just snuck into the winner list at 144. terrible week 16.
super fun. I'm just happy to have something to participate in weekly! congrats to all
super fun. I'm just happy to have something to participate in weekly! congrats to all
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Winner only had 18 players. Crazy. He also would have been OUT week 1 if Connor didn't have such a huge week 1 game.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105111.php
He hit on lots of guys though. With that many entries, you almost just have to hit on everything and hope to get through to the end.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2018/105111.php
He hit on lots of guys though. With that many entries, you almost just have to hit on everything and hope to get through to the end.
Coolerheads
Footballguy
193rd.
After a decade of doing this, I made the playoffs (top .1 percent just to get in,) for the first time ever, and still didn't cash. Conner carried me, played zero snaps, and here I am, a loser again. So tired of this hobby...
After a decade of doing this, I made the playoffs (top .1 percent just to get in,) for the first time ever, and still didn't cash. Conner carried me, played zero snaps, and here I am, a loser again. So tired of this hobby...
dbc925
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
Sorry been away for holidays.... so, now that this rat race is over, what have we learned??
Roster size critical? Maybe not as much as we thought during season...
Value Players Critical? Well, players like James Connor & Patrick Mahone’s were, but could others have “offered quality replacement”? Not to the same value IMO.
Avoiding Injury? Absolutely important but not in your control. Fate will hit you when destined!
Depth of “Hits”? This might be the single most difficult item to qualify but it separates the winners from “those who tried”.... like me!
Congrats to all who made it to the finals!!
Roster size critical? Maybe not as much as we thought during season...
Value Players Critical? Well, players like James Connor & Patrick Mahone’s were, but could others have “offered quality replacement”? Not to the same value IMO.
Avoiding Injury? Absolutely important but not in your control. Fate will hit you when destined!
Depth of “Hits”? This might be the single most difficult item to qualify but it separates the winners from “those who tried”.... like me!
Congrats to all who made it to the finals!!
Steeler
Footballguy
This is my biggest takeaway. I always fluctuate between a small roster and a large roster before they lock and always settle on the large roster. My thinking has always been that the larger roster gives you a better chance to make the finals and once there anything can happen. Well, that's never worked as I have never made the finals (missed this year by a few points during the cut to 250)... so next year I'm going to have at most 20 people and shooting for 18.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Most people don't. Only a small percentage of entries makes it to the finals, it's really hard to do. And of all the takeaways from a decade+ of picking apart the contest on this forum, the one thing that is true every single year is that larger rosters survive at a much higher rate than small rosters.
Steeler
Footballguy
What is the make-up of teams that finish in the top 10?
I always wanted to survive as long as possible, especially since I started running the calcomatic, but missing the final 250 in week 13 by a couple points sucked pretty bad
I figured the smaller rosters have a better chance to win if you get to the 250 so why not go that route since the larger rosters have only had netted me getting eliminated later in the season with little hope of winning anyway.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I don't have the data handy on top 10. The theory of course is that smaller rosters that do make the finals are more well-suited to finish at the top of the standings, but I'm not sure the data bear that out. I was just pointing out that if your goal is to make the final 250, larger rosters have always done better than small rosters, that's always been true in theory and in the actual results. I understand the argument you're making, I just don't agree with it as a strategy (but I think that's mostly a matter of opinion, not that one is "right" and the other "wrong").What is the make-up of teams that finish in the top 10?
I always wanted to survive as long as possible, especially since I started running the calcomatic, but missing the final 250 in week 13 by a couple points sucked pretty bad
BassNBrew
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Please don't quote and I'll delete this later. 18, 23, 23, 27, 30, 27, 20, 18, 24, 24. Pretty close to the distribution in the finals? Strange finish to the year. Conner being a stud most of the year and then sitting out the playoff weeks flipped things upside down. I hope more people switch to smaller lineups. It was much easier to survive and place when 80% of the rosters were 18 players.What is the make-up of teams that finish in the top 10?
I always wanted to survive as long as possible, especially since I started running the calcomatic, but missing the final 250 in week 13 by a couple points sucked pretty bad
TheWinz
Footballguy
Decided to dig back the last 5 years and answer this for you. It's the least I can do for your time with the calcomatic!What is the make-up of teams that finish in the top 10?
I always wanted to survive as long as possible, especially since I started running the calcomatic, but missing the final 250 in week 13 by a couple points sucked pretty bad
Top 10 finishers, with amounts of players:
2018 - 18, 22, 23, 27, 30, 27, 20, 18, 24, 24 - average is 23.3 (3 QB's, 6.4 RB's, 6.2 WR's, 2.8 TE's, 2.6 K's, and 2.4 D's)
2017 - 23, 23, 30, 20, 22, 25, 21, 30, 23, 25 - average is 24.2 (2.7 QB's, 6.6 RB's, 7 WR's, 2.8 TE's, 2.5 K's, and 2.6 D's)
2016 - 18, 28, 21, 20, 25, 25, 23, 21, 27, 30 - average is 23.8 (3 QB's, 6.2 RB's, 6.8 WR's, 3.1 TE's, 2.3 K's, and 2.4 D's)
2015 - 28, 26, 29, 27, 24, 30, 24, 29, 20, 28 - average is 26.5 (3.7 QB's, 6.1 RB's, 7.3 WR's, 4 TE's, 2.6 K's, and 2.8 D's)
2014 - 24, 27, 18, 24, 22, 18, 20, 21, 20, 20 - average is 21.4 (2.5 QB's, 5.1 RB's, 6.9 WR's, 2.8 TE's, 2 K's, and 2.1 D's)
Overall 5 yr average is 23.8 (3 QB's, 6.1 RB's, 6.8 WR's, 3.1 TE's, 2.4 K's, and 2.5 D's)
Observations
- If you consider 18-21 small, 22-26 medium, and 27-30 large, it's very even (16 small, 19 medium, and 15 large)
- 2014 & 2015 were the extremes; the last 3 years have been very even
- In the last 3 years, 3 teams had 18, 4 teams had 30
- In the last 3 years, every team had 2-4 QB's
- In the last 3 years, every team but 1 had 2-4 TE's (the 1 outlier had 5, and a 30-player roster)
- In the last 3 years, every team but 1 had 2-3 K's (the 1 outlier had 4, and a 27-player roster)
- In the last 3 years, every team but 1 had 2-3 D's (the 1 outlier had 4, and a 30-player roster)
Final thought - Since smaller rosters are way more common than larger rosters, the math says larger rosters are the way to go, and can have the firepower to take it all.
Once again, thanx for all you do with the calcomatic, Steeler.
joey
Footballguy
I read it as more teams being medium teams (avg roster size of 23.3, 24.2 and 23.8 over the past 3 years. Am I misreading that?
this is great info, btw, Winz. Thanks for that useful info!
TheWinz
Footballguy
Wrong. In 2018, here were the number of submissions for each roster size: 18 (4051), 19 (1741), 20 (1390), 21 (1189), 22 (1104), 23 (1008), 24 (895), 25 (785), 26 (670), 27 (562), 28 (470), 29 (440), 30 (810)
That's a total of 8371 small, 4462 medium, and 2282 large
The top 10 were 18, 18, 20 (3 small), 22, 23, 24, 24 (4 medium), 27, 27, 30 (3 large)
So, when you consider there were nearly 4 times as many small submissions as large ones, yet large submissions kept pace, it favors large submissions.
Take a minute to digest this... Out of the 15,115 submissions, 4051 were 18-player rosters. That was 27% of all submissions.
Birdie048
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Correct, Sir. I expect more larger submissions as the years progress, but am hoping for more smaller rosters. Hopefully many people see that 2018's winner only had 18, and don't actually look at the results and realize that 1 RB, who had an overall disappointing season, was the key to his win. For me, I will stick to larger rosters.
joey
Footballguy
You don’t have to worry about me. My challenge (being just over 50) is simply remembering that I learned some useful info here by the time next year's contest rolls around.
apalmer
Footballguy
Wait...there was contest this year? What are you talking about, kid?
(asks the even older guy)
