TripItUp
Footballguy
Baldwin was an easy yes before the injury, now I'm not so certain.
Hilton yes
Thielen/Diggs similar.
end of 2nd is my least favorite part of the draft...would much rather go RB/TE where Green is going.
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Your 5 ABSOLUTE "DO NOT DRAFT" 2018 redraft players (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TZMarkie
- Start date
Hilton yes
Thielen/Diggs similar.
end of 2nd is my least favorite part of the draft...would much rather go RB/TE where Green is going.
Keith1
Footballguy
Not disputing that Ben's numbers are substantially better at home. But his road numbers have improved and I think they improve even more this season. But paired with Smith, or Dak, or Mariota, I think you will end up with top 5 numbers when all is said and done.
need2know
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
You think he improves in year, what? 12? 13?
Bens great but I think we know what to expect. Great shape reports are nice this time of year (haven't seen one about him but, fine) but how is that different from any other year? Did we have reports about being fat and out of shape in other years?
Nah, there are other more reliable targets around where he is being drafted.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
OBJ
No idea how people think he is still good much less worth getting a good contract.
No idea how people think he is still good much less worth getting a good contract.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
1 McCoy, and that was before the robbery news. The qbs are really bad, the o-line took some huge hits and he’s getting old for a rb.
2 Ingram - the power of recency is amazing. It wasn’t long ago that people said he was being wasted on the saints. Now he’ll be the backup and he’s serving a suspension. People talk about Kamara being due for a lot of regression but the same thing can be said for Ingram. He won’t put up the same points without way more touches and he won’t get them. His adp blows my mind.
3 Jeffery - Couldn’t hit 800 yards in a very good offense last year. And he looked bad doing it a lot of time imo.
4 Ronald Jones - bit of an Abdullah vibe. Won’t be the short yardage back and doesn’t look like the pass catcher either. Maybe in a year or two.
5 Hyde - I liked him coming out but he’s been a disappointment and was really poor to me last year. Duke is the pass catcher and Chubb is much better than him. I don’t see any upside unless there’s one or more injuries.
2 Ingram - the power of recency is amazing. It wasn’t long ago that people said he was being wasted on the saints. Now he’ll be the backup and he’s serving a suspension. People talk about Kamara being due for a lot of regression but the same thing can be said for Ingram. He won’t put up the same points without way more touches and he won’t get them. His adp blows my mind.
3 Jeffery - Couldn’t hit 800 yards in a very good offense last year. And he looked bad doing it a lot of time imo.
4 Ronald Jones - bit of an Abdullah vibe. Won’t be the short yardage back and doesn’t look like the pass catcher either. Maybe in a year or two.
5 Hyde - I liked him coming out but he’s been a disappointment and was really poor to me last year. Duke is the pass catcher and Chubb is much better than him. I don’t see any upside unless there’s one or more injuries.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Not sure I can get behind the Alshon hate. He finished WR12 last year while playing the ENTIRE season with a torn rotator cuff. Yet you think now that he's healthy, his WR22 ADP is too high?
TripItUp
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya he tore it in camp last year and it was kept pretty hush all season but they revealed after the Super Bowl that he played with it torn all year. He had surgery 2 weeks after the Super Bowl and is looking good. Most people don't realize he was WR12 last year in standard (WR17 in PPR), but his ADP is WR20 (WR24 in PPR) seems very low.
I think he has a better season this year than last year. He got hot late in the year, and I think Ertz might have a bit of a regression too. Alshon should be the clear #1 in that offense now and if he stays healthy, should be a top 10 WR this year.
ZWK
Footballguy
2.10 RB Jordan Howard - doesn't catch passes.
3.12 WR Amari Cooper - he's being drafted as WR16 which matches his career best finish, and last season he was garbage.
4.11 QB Deshaun Watson - tiny sample size and coming off an injury. Give me Wilson or Brady.
5.08 WR Chris Hogan - I expect the Gronk & Edelman show to resume this year
8.06 TE Trey Burton - his bio should make him a trendy sleeper pick, but tons of people somehow think that Chicago is a great place for a TE to put up big numbers and he's the perfect talent for them so instead he's an 8th rounder.
Let's play two: 3.01 Joe Mixon, 3.09 Derrick Henry, 4.03 Jay Ajayi, 5.12 Greg Olsen, 8.10 Jordy Nelson.
3.12 WR Amari Cooper - he's being drafted as WR16 which matches his career best finish, and last season he was garbage.
4.11 QB Deshaun Watson - tiny sample size and coming off an injury. Give me Wilson or Brady.
5.08 WR Chris Hogan - I expect the Gronk & Edelman show to resume this year
8.06 TE Trey Burton - his bio should make him a trendy sleeper pick, but tons of people somehow think that Chicago is a great place for a TE to put up big numbers and he's the perfect talent for them so instead he's an 8th rounder.
Let's play two: 3.01 Joe Mixon, 3.09 Derrick Henry, 4.03 Jay Ajayi, 5.12 Greg Olsen, 8.10 Jordy Nelson.
Heisenberg23
Footballguy
lot of owners are debating going TE early say for one of the 3 top studs
in ppr this year which combo is preferred:
Fitz and Rudolph (or) Ertz and Marvin Jones
in ppr this year which combo is preferred:
Fitz and Rudolph (or) Ertz and Marvin Jones
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Lionsfan011
Footballguy
RB Jerick McKinnon - RB13 at 2.11: He hasn't shown he's a good, let alone great RB and his value is artificially bumped from Jimmy G's end of season surge plus the new OC. Jimmy G's value has seemed to settle yet McKinnon's continues to rise. McKinnon as a borderline RB1 let alone a high end RB2, hard pass.
RB LeSean McCoy - RB16 at 3.04: His age plus a QB situation in flux with weak WR's will force him up against stacked boxes. They also downgraded their o-line trading away Cordy Glenn. And this is before his potential legal issues.
QB Deshaun Watson - QB2 at 4.11: Defenses now have film on him to make adjustments and I remember reading something about Watson having the most fortune with inaccurate passes last year that's bound for regression to the mean. Add in he's coming back from the ACL injury and there's no way he's putting up the video game numbers he did last year. The QB2 price tag is way too steep. I'd much rather have Brady, Wilson and Brees over Watson and probably Wentz and Luck who have injury concerns of their own.
RB Donte Foreman - RB48 at 11.10: The first 3 players are guys who if magically fell a few rounds I'd consider drafting. That isn't the case for the next 2 guys. RB's don't come back full strength from ruptured achilles, they're a shell of their former selves. Foreman's already on PUP and isn't fully health to attempt his comeback just yet. I'll let someone else waste a late round pick on him, undraftable.
TE Tyler Eifert - TE13 at 12.11: Injured more than he's healthy although a great talent. He's already showing back issues in camp and that cost him most of last year while being ineffective in the little time he did play. I don't wish or like to assume players will be injured but he's destined to be injured again. I'd rather risk watching him blow up on someone else's team than waste a roster spot on my team for 4-5 weeks before I cut him. He's off my draft board.
RB LeSean McCoy - RB16 at 3.04: His age plus a QB situation in flux with weak WR's will force him up against stacked boxes. They also downgraded their o-line trading away Cordy Glenn. And this is before his potential legal issues.
QB Deshaun Watson - QB2 at 4.11: Defenses now have film on him to make adjustments and I remember reading something about Watson having the most fortune with inaccurate passes last year that's bound for regression to the mean. Add in he's coming back from the ACL injury and there's no way he's putting up the video game numbers he did last year. The QB2 price tag is way too steep. I'd much rather have Brady, Wilson and Brees over Watson and probably Wentz and Luck who have injury concerns of their own.
RB Donte Foreman - RB48 at 11.10: The first 3 players are guys who if magically fell a few rounds I'd consider drafting. That isn't the case for the next 2 guys. RB's don't come back full strength from ruptured achilles, they're a shell of their former selves. Foreman's already on PUP and isn't fully health to attempt his comeback just yet. I'll let someone else waste a late round pick on him, undraftable.
TE Tyler Eifert - TE13 at 12.11: Injured more than he's healthy although a great talent. He's already showing back issues in camp and that cost him most of last year while being ineffective in the little time he did play. I don't wish or like to assume players will be injured but he's destined to be injured again. I'd rather risk watching him blow up on someone else's team than waste a roster spot on my team for 4-5 weeks before I cut him. He's off my draft board.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
As usual, ZWK drops the mic on this thread.
My only disagreement with this post is Mixon. The Bengals ran the fewest offensive plays in the league last year, not due to team philosophy (they've been right around average in the Lewis era) but because their OL was a trainwreck. They've improved it via both FA and the draft and I expect Mixon's raw talent to show through in Year 2. I'm fine with targeting him in the RB12-14 range. I don't want the remaining 9 at anywhere near those ADPs.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yes. Rotator cuff or not his averages were on par with his career numbers. Low volume, low catch % and TD dependent.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I guess that's not ppr because he finished 20th in my leagues - which is still solid of course.
Deamon
Footballguy
Weird, is that counting week 17 in which he barely played due to resting players? Is wr17 in ppr.
Deamon
Footballguy
So why expect that significant of a dropoff if he was near his career numbers?
Wouldn't say his volume is low. He was the 14th most targeted wr in the nfl last year.
With his qb (hopefully) being healthy all year, and his rotator cuff healed (which is a hard injury for wrs to play through), I'd expect his numbers too improve this year. At the very least not drop significantly from wr 17 to 30.
matuski
Footballguy
Wu-banger
Footballguy
Like the first 5 , but completely lost me with the 3 RBs in the let's play two.
Mixon's talent should really excel in year with improvements on O Line... Henry is now the only power back for the Titans so his value at the end of the 3rd should be great. i also love Ajayi more than most since he's going at 4.03 , he plays on one of the best teams in NFL with a great line , I think his talent gap with the other Eagles RBs is much greater than people realize.
Chaka
Footballguy
I will be the first to say that if he does produce at his career efficiencies of catch % and YPC he will be a reasonable value as WR22 (988 yards on 67 catches). If we call last season a wash he will be even better (69 catches for 1,034 yards). If he puts up his career best numbers we're at 72 catches & 1,154 yards.
If he plays 16 games without suffering another limiting injury.
You could convince me that two of those two outcomes are possible, but I still see enough issues with him particularly as it relates to him being a weekly injury report nightmare that I doubt he will be on any of my teams.
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah the gap was bigger than I realized. Then again his TD rate was well above his career average.
Deamon
Footballguy
I think he'll be a lot more comfortable in the system too, and really think he takes a step forward this year. I'd be extremely surprised if he doesn't beat his wr26 ppr adp (if healthy). I do agree he's an injury risk though and if you're predicting an injury I get that ranking, but if healthy he's a lock to be top 20, if not top 15.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Ya I can't get behind using week 17 in fantasy data. It doesn't even count for 99% of leagues, not to mention the fact that they rested their starters and he barely even played that game.
Short Corner
Footballguy
I will defer to the 2018 Coach Otis All-Value Team. Hoping it gets released before my first draft to avoid those land mines.
beerbuff
Footballguy
I will draft anyone if the price is right but at their current ADP's my five are:
Shady McCoy- obvious suspension risk
Rashaad Penny - Chris Carson risk
Ronald Jones - Peyton Barber risk
Devin Funchess - don't trust Carolinas passing game
Jay Ajayi - too many up and down games.
Shady McCoy- obvious suspension risk
Rashaad Penny - Chris Carson risk
Ronald Jones - Peyton Barber risk
Devin Funchess - don't trust Carolinas passing game
Jay Ajayi - too many up and down games.
beerbuff
Footballguy
I just picked up both of them at the 15/16 turn in a best ball draft. You just don't find a starting RB in that range usually. Still a risk but a very affordable one.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
DocHolliday
Footballguy
One of those RBs is going to get touches as it stands right now. I would roll the dice on Kelley.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
This is a good list. I disagree with Ajayi though. I think he has a really good 2018 season.
My (Your 5 "MUST HAVES" in redraft for 2018) thread has been interesting so far, and I appreciate the responses. It will no doubt change a bit as the preseason progresses. Hopefully there are no serious injuries, but we all know there will be a few.
That thread is here ~~~~~~~~ > https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/768303-your-5-must-haves-in-redraft-for-2018/
On the flip side, this is usually even MORE IMPORTANT to (me) and most fantasy players for several reasons. I don't want to get someone in the select few leagues I play in, only to be "burned" by said player and regret it the rest of the season. Have you ever told yourself mid season "I knew not to draft that P.O.S.~!!!, I didn't want him all preseason and said I wouldn't draft him"...?
All this aside, these are 5 of my ABSOLUTE DO NOT DRAFT players for 2018.
SAQUON BARKLEY - This is a tough one. I hate to even say it, as it makes me a bit queasy as I absolutely LOVE the upside and potential workload. But the fact is, he is a rookie. He is currently being drafted inside the top 10. He has never had a single snap at the NFL level. While I love the talent and upside, in my first 2-3 rounds in drafts I am looking for absolute iron-clad top end production. Do I think I *COULD* get that from him??? Certainly. But I would more than likely figure him to be a top end RB2 with the "sky is the limit" upside, likely finishing around the top 10 mark. He could well lead the league and break records, but personally I would rather have ANTONIO BROWN , and its not even close.
ALVIN KAMARA - Again, I get all the band wagoners. His efficiency was off the charts last season. Don't kid yourself, do you really think he is far and away the most efficient back in league history??? (If you do, go stock up on his rookie and rookie auto cards, and memorabilia) Regression is coming boys, period, end of story. Sure, I know Ingram is sidelined for several weeks, and he may get a bit more of a workload, but the Saints have already come out and said they want to keep his workload down. (I forget the exact quote) This is yet another case where I would likely rather have a top 2-3 WR than Kamara, and I will sleep easier because of it.
DESHAUN WATSON - This may be obvious for most of you. The fantasy community is down on drafting QBs early, and truth be known, I have ALWAYS been that way. (I also mentioned somewhere on this board last year I didn't want AARON RODGERS for several reasons, including injury risk.) I wasn't looking to burn an early round pick, that I could focus on a top end WR or RB was the majority of that. I watched Watson go off last season, and it was exciting , no doubt. But its unsustainable (Read Kamara above) and many aren't paying attention that the defense should be improved, leading to less shootouts. His ADP is roughly pick 45. No thanks, I will get Luck, or someone else far later and stock up at WR or RB early instead.
KAREEM HUNT - Here is one I have not heard any expert fading, or at least not that I can remember. Look back at his 2017 stats, it was far more boom and bust than people want to admit. Everyone loves him since he went off in weeks 14-15-16, where he got three massive workloads in a row. FANTASY PLAYOFFS!!!!He had great numbers in 3 weeks early, then to bookend the season. (1-2-3, 14-15-16) His stretch from 8 through week 13 was pretty bad, when you have to consider his massive draft capital. Let us not forget SPENCER WARE should ultimately return. Is he going to crush the Hunt workload, no..... but all things considered I think I will stay away from this situation. There are other players far more interesting to me inside the top 10 (where he is going). Give me a stud WR any day all day there instead.
THE CLEVELAND BROWNS RB CAROUSEL OF DEATH - I have fallen into this trap too many times, including last year and the Isaiah Crowell "the O line is the best in the league" bull####. I'm just not interested. I liked CARLOS HYDE last season, and utilized him effectively in a ppr/points per touch league. I liked his Shanahan SF scenario. But I am not keen on the Browns scattershot running attack, as it could easily be a complete cesspool of a 3 back committee. (I argued they should have taken Barkely at #1 in the draft and QB du jour at pick 4, but after signing Hyde in the offseason, I knew that wasn't going to happen)
NOTE - I do want to go on record, and state in extremely close top end RB vs.WR scenarios, I would much rather go with stud WRs, over the similar RBs, strictly because of the health risks and the fact that the RBs generally miss more time. I can load up on RBs later in drafts and get solid production once the injuries start to take place as the season chugs along.
I have a few more I will post late in the thread.
Who all are you choosing as your 5 "ABSOLUTE DO NOT DRAFT" this season in your redrafts...??
TZM
I don't think Barkley being a rookie should be a huge concern given the recent success of highly drafted rookies. I see a very high floor with a very high ceiling possible. The drum beat for this kid has been getting louder and louder through college-combine-pre season. It's just hard to deny what I see with my eyes. The O-line should be improved and a healthy OBJ will be great for him. He's not quite the slam dunk that Zeke was when he came out due to Zeke's much better line but I think he potentially has a higher ceiling.
I think the Cardinals are gonna be a better team than people think. DJ had 12 TD's his rookie year in very limited touches. He is a superstar and will get tons of volume.
I agree with all.
I wonder if Graham might take away some TD's from Adams. I do love Adams talent though.
The year that J Nelsen was hurt early nobody was downgrading Rogers. He ended up having a down year. I'm not loving the receiving core this year.
Too many people comparing the Bears to the Rams in regards to a big turn around. I think it's coming, probably not this year. I love their Defense.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Agree on Fournette. But I'd say Fournette and Gordon are a tier above Cook and Hunt (notwithstanding the fact that Cook has a really high ceiling by the eye test).
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Look I love DJ, but 12 tds is hard to get, and while he’s been great it’s hard to just simply pencil him in for what people expect. Maybe I’m going out of the way to take a contrarian view or it’s because I drafted him 1.02 last year in a league (I ended up winning so not really sour) but I think there’s a little more question there than most are admitting. New coaches, new qbs, new results?
eta: as it was pointed out he had an arm injury so I’ll retract that portion from my original statement. Not worried about his arm.
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pantherclub
Footballguy
where is Barkley going in money 12 team redraft?
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Not a real draft of course, but using the Draft Dominator App, Barkley has fallen to me at pick 2.3 numerous times.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
The 12 TD's was a year before he scored 20 TD's. Just showing he has the knack for the end zone. I wouldn't expect 20 this year but I wouldn't be shocked with 15. No matter what he will be one of the few true workhorses in the league.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
I don't know if he will get more volume than he got at the end of last season, but he will certainly get more volume than his first month of last season when they still had AP.
I think the efficiency will regress, but offset by his increased volume in the first month compared to the first month of last season to give similar production as last year as long as he doesn't get hurt - that's not projecting an increase in the first quarter of 18 versus his avg after the first month of 17.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
I've never been a huge Big Ben fan. I always thought he was a better QB than fantasy QB. However, he had a hell of a second half last year and he seems motivated and with a chip on his shoulder after Pitt drafted a QB. I think he will have a good year.
One player I want no part of is Chris Thompson. I just don't believe he's durable enough to contribute more than a handful of games. Addin that he's not expected to be 100% to start the season and I'm fading HARD. I see FBG bumped him up their rankings with Guice going down, but I don't see it. Really don't want any part of that team.
pantherclub
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
That doesn't feel right. By the way this board was reacting I was thinking he was going top 5.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Barkley
McKinnon
Thelien
McKinnon
Thelien
Chaka
Footballguy
The Cardinals may have trouble scoring 15 TDs all season (yes hyperbole). On paper they look to have, perhaps the worst offensive line in the league. Rookie QB at some point probably sooner rather than later, not gonna be much room for Johnson to work.
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