KEEPER LEAGUE: Who would you keep? (1 Viewer)

I can keep up to three players.

Here is the short list and the round pick it will cost me to keep each.

Collins, Alex BAL RB -- 13th (steal)
Gurley, Todd LAR RB -- 1st (definitely keeping, don't even bother saying not to. My first pick is 1.12. Gurley is consensus #1. It's a no-brainer.)
Hunt, Kareem KCC RB -- 6th (steal)
McKinnon, Jerick SFO RB -- 13th (steal)
Allen, Keenan LAC WR -- 3rd (great value, but not a steal)
 
I finished last season thinking it was obvious. 
Gurley, Hunt, Allen. They basically won it for me last year.
 
But, with the dirt cheap cost on Collins and McKinnon (keeping both would cost a 12th and 13th), I'm reconsidering Hunt and/or Allen. On the other hand, no way either get back to me at my first pick.
 
Scoring is performance heavy, TD heavy, no ppr for RB, 1/2 ppr for WR, ppr for TE.
Lineup is fairly standard.
QB
RBx2
WRx3
TE
K
D
 
If it matters, my picks in rounds 1-4 are 1.12, 2.01, 3.12, 4.02.  I have no fifth and two sevenths. So keeping Hunt and Allen would mean I only have my 2nd round pick and my 4th round pick until round 7 since I'm definitely keeping Gurley (consensus #1 or #2 at 1.12? Why yes, please). Yikes. Now that I type that out... Daaaaang.
One of the options I'm considering is, Gurley, Hunt and one of Collins or McKinnon and go WR on rounds 2, 3, & 4. Allen may even make it back to 2.01 for me or someone better may be there.
That may be a possibility as I think only six people will be making picks before me (the remaining five will all slot someone in round one). Of those six, I see Saquon and Guice going, one of Rodgers or Brees (or both if the owner cuts both), Evans. That leaves about 2-3 picks I don't know about. Gronk may even be there if my cousin keeps Cook instead. And if he doesn't then Cook certainly goes in first 11 too.

Thoughts?
 
Kind of a time crunch. Final cuts are on Saturday at 7 PM MT (9 PM ET).
 
Thanks!

If it were PPR for rb's my answer would have been to include McKinnon but I'm afraid Breida may get the goal line work so Gurley, Hunt and Allen. I can see making a case for Collins based on value but with 3 keepers you aren't going to find anyone close to Allen at the end of the 3rd round.

Agree with beerbuff here. Gurley is a no brainer, allen simply because you won’t be able to replace him and it’s still a steal in rd 3 when you take 36 keepers off the board. Keep whichever rb you like best after that, 6th rd vs 13th rd doesn’t really matter imo, that rd 6 is really more like rd 9 after keepers and things thin out. 

The Fish said:

That may be a possibility as I think only six people will be making picks before me (the remaining five will all slot someone in round one). Of those six, I see Saquon and Guice going, one of Rodgers or Brees (or both if the owner cuts both), Evans. That leaves about 2-3 picks I don't know about. Gronk may even be there if my cousin keeps Cook instead. And if he doesn't then Cook certainly goes in first 11 too.
 

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Someone would actually take Guice in the first round in this format?  I don't see any reason to do that.  The chances of Guice playing into a good enough player to be freezable as a 1st rounder next year seems unlikely.  Probably doesn't matter either way but I just didn't think Guice would be a choice that early.

As for your keepers my thoughts:  Since you can only start 2 RB's and must start 3 WR's and have no flex spot I think you have to keep Allen as pick 3.12.  I initially thought you throw him back and either get him at 2.01 (or something better) but since you cannot start more than 2 RB's I think keeping three would put you at a disadvantage even if they are your late round picks.  The value on Allen is good enough at 3.12 that I think you have to keep him. 

So for your last keeper I would go with Hunt because I think he is the safest to have the role we all expect and at 6th round value that is solid. 

I keep Gurley, Allen, and Collins who I think is being criminally undervalued.

Collins has been traded!
Had an offer just sitting waiting for a week and the dude pulled the trigger on it this morning.
Dealt Collins and 8.10 for his 5.01.
That works. Big time. Moved up 45 spots for a guy I was going to drop and not end up with anyway in the draft.

Did just get an offer on Hunt. 
Only offered his 2nd round pick though. (2.09)

Consider this. 
Hunt and my 7.12 for his 1.04?
Then i have a 1.04 and keep McKinnon at 13.12.
I don't think he'd go for it. I think he thinks that he's got a shot at Saquon. He doesn't.
And if he does do it, chances are he'll blow it anyway, he's not all that good.

Some possibles at 1.04 -
Freeman or Hopkins (owner can keep only one, final contract years)
Saquon (if everyone in front of me is on crack)
Julio
Cook 
Thomas
Gronk

All of them would be a straight up one year rental though, Gurley is my Franchise keeper for the foreseeable future for my 1st rounder. Whereas I still have control of Hunt for two more seasons at cheap draft slots (this plus next year).

Snorkelson said:

Agree with beerbuff here. Gurley is a no brainer, allen simply because you won’t be able to replace him and it’s still a steal in rd 3 when you take 36 keepers off the board. Keep whichever rb you like best after that, 6th rd vs 13th rd doesn’t really matter imo, that rd 6 is really more like rd 9 after keepers and things thin out. 

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BTW -

Since we slot keepers based on rounds, it's not just a straight up keep three best players league. You can keep UP TO three and because of round slotting, you may not even keep a stud when you have a guy being picked in round 4 that you can keep in round 12. And not obligated to keep any at all. Most people do of course, but one team (so far) is only keeping one player. But yeah, it's damn close to 36 legit first three round guys being off the board right at the start, I'd say usually about 24-30 of 36. Exceptions noted above...

The Fish said:

BTW -

Since we slot keepers based on rounds, it's not just a straight up keep three best players league. You can keep UP TO three and because of round slotting, you may not even keep a stud when you have a guy being picked in round 4 that you can keep in round 12. And not obligated to keep any at all. Most people do of course, but one team (so far) is only keeping one player. But yeah, it's damn close to 36 legit first three round guys being off the board right at the start, I'd say usually about 24-30 of 36. Exceptions noted above...

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Yeah, I’m just trying to point out that everything’s thinning out by that point already so that rd 6 vs rd 13 for hunt vs Collins isn’t as wide a gap as it seems. I’d just keep who I like better and not really pay attention to the cost at that point. 

Snorkelson said:

Yeah, I’m just trying to point out that everything’s thinning out by that point already so that rd 6 vs rd 13 for hunt vs Collins isn’t as wide a gap as it seems. I’d just keep who I like better and not really pay attention to the cost at that point. 

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Yeah, makes total sense. And now that Collins has been dealt, I'm not really sweating it. It's going to be Gurley, Hunt and Allen. Well, barring someone blowing me out of the water for Hunt or Allen.

The Fish said:

Collins has been traded!
Had an offer just sitting waiting for a week and the dude pulled the trigger on it this morning.
Dealt Collins and 8.10 for his 5.01.
That works. Big time. Moved up 45 spots for a guy I was going to drop and not end up with anyway in the draft.

Did just get an offer on Hunt. 
Only offered his 2nd round pick though. (2.09)

Consider this. 
Hunt and my 7.12 for his 1.04?
Then i have a 1.04 and keep McKinnon at 13.12.
I don't think he'd go for it. I think he thinks that he's got a shot at Saquon. He doesn't.
And if he does do it, chances are he'll blow it anyway, he's not all that good.

Some possibles at 1.04 -
Freeman or Hopkins (owner can keep only one, final contract years)
Saquon (if everyone in front of me is on crack)
Julio
Cook 
Thomas
Gronk

All of them would be a straight up one year rental though, Gurley is my Franchise keeper for the foreseeable future for my 1st rounder. Whereas I still have control of Hunt for two more seasons at cheap draft slots (this plus next year).

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Keep Hunt and chill out before you screw things up. The Freeman/Hopkins owner will keep Hopkins and Hunt is better than Freeman and all the guys listed with the possible exception of Barkley but like you said he would likely be gone...so keep Hunt.

beerbuff said:

Keep Hunt and chill out before you screw things up.

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Noted. 

That gave me a good laugh. Thanks.