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Anarchy99

2018 Anarchy League 3 Thread

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LEAGUE 3 LEAGUE SITE is up, draft has been set to start on 8/13 at 6:00 pm Eastern.
Timer is off, subject to change if there are problems.

Draft order:

01 - Blinky The Three Eyed Fish
02 - Pigskin Fanatic
03 - Crippler
04 - ryheaps
05 - swabs
06 - ZWK
07 - The GrimReaper
08 - 5Rings
09 - JeremyX13
10 - BassNBrew
11 - kutta
12 - Maggot Brain
13 - Dreamers
14 - jhexel
15 - HellToupee
16 - BoltnLava

Edited by Anarchy99

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Interesting. All 3 drafts have a combo of Green Bsy and NE QB to start. Simply fascinating to see same combo in all 3. 

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17 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

@Anarchy99 Can you please skip @kutta  He's been on the clock for about 18 hours.

Just made my pick. Sorry about that - travelled all day yesterday and got in late.

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On 8/21/2018 at 8:06 AM, kutta said:

Just made my pick. Sorry about that - travelled all day yesterday and got in late.

@kutta To you again.  Do you have text notifications set up on your phone?

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

@kutta To you again.  Do you have text notifications set up on your phone?

Sorry again :bag: 

I’ve been in meetings, and dinners, and on planes for the past few days. Back home now so I should be more on the ball.

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6 minutes ago, BoltNlava said:

opps sorry have it changed or Ill pick another player. Again sorry.

I think Yudkin (Anarchy99) has to fix it. You could message him with the player that you want to take in place of Murray.

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9 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I think Yudkin (Anarchy99) has to fix it. You could message him with the player that you want to take in place of Murray.

Done

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On 8/23/2018 at 10:58 AM, kutta said:

 

On 8/23/2018 at 8:47 AM, BassNBrew said:

@kutta To you again.  Do you have text notifications set up on your phone?

Sorry again :bag: 

I’ve been in meetings, and dinners, and on planes for the past few days. Back home now so I should be more on the ball.

 

@kutta :tumbleweed:

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2 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

@kutta....dude....sign up for the text notifications

A big part of my problem has been that I've been on planes and in meetings with no coverage for a lot of the past week.

We only have a few rounds left and a week and a half before the season starts, so I think we are in good shape...

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9 minutes ago, kutta said:

A big part of my problem has been that I've been on planes and in meetings with no coverage for a lot of the past week.

We only have a few rounds left and a week and a half before the season starts, so I think we are in good shape...

so did you or did you not set up to receive the text notifications when you were OTC?

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14 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

so did you or did you not set up to receive the text notifications when you were OTC?

No. I have e-mail notifications set.

So we may finish only a week and two days ahead of the start of the season instead of a week and three days.

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19 minutes ago, kutta said:

No. I have e-mail notifications set.

So we may finish only a week and two days ahead of the start of the season instead of a week and three days.

you said above that the meetings and travel were not really an issue anymore and it should be better now cause you were home....yet you had a pretty big delay again....the texts can help sometimes where an email doesn't....look I have no dog in this race and I'm not even in this draft and I'm not trying to bust your balls....but if you had set up for the text notifications which takes all of 45 seconds it could have helped you in all these situations....heck the text even includes a link in the message that allows you to immediately access the draft and pick....we all gotta try to work together here.....when the draft ends or doesn't end is not the point...

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6 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

you said above that the meetings and travel were not really an issue anymore and it should be better now cause you were home....yet you had a pretty big delay again....the texts can help sometimes where an email doesn't....look I have no dog in this race and I'm not even in this draft and I'm not trying to bust your balls....but if you had set up for the text notifications which takes all of 45 seconds it could have helped you in all these situations....heck the text even includes a link in the message that allows you to immediately access the draft and pick....we all gotta try to work together here.....when the draft ends or doesn't end is not the point...

Well, I didn't really want to go into details, but I don't have my personal phone with me the vast majority of the day anyway, and I can't sign up for texts on my work phone, so the texts don't do me much good. That's why I did the e-mail.

If it's that much of a problem, I'll bow out next year.

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7 minutes ago, kutta said:

Well, I didn't really want to go into details, but I don't have my personal phone with me the vast majority of the day anyway, and I can't sign up for texts on my work phone, so the texts don't do me much good. That's why I did the e-mail.

If it's that much of a problem, I'll bow out next year.

those are defiantly all things to consider when signing up for these things....just tryin to help....good luck 

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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2 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

those are defiantly all things to consider when signing up for these things....just tryin to help....good luck 

I don't know how many times I've made that exact same typo - it comes off pretty crazily sometimes (We are defiantly going to send that report to you soon.).

 

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

I don't know how many times I've made that exact same typo - it comes off pretty crazily sometimes (We are defiantly going to send that report to you soon.).

 

lol...I actually spelled definitely wrong the first time and it told me to correct it....I hit the first thing that popped up on auto correct without even really looking at it...just assumed it spelled it right for me..

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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14 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I can banish kutta to the Pit of Misery with Bronco Freak if you like. All in favor?

Put them all in one draft and start it in June.  It would be entertaining.

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On 8/28/2018 at 9:23 AM, BassNBrew said:

Put them all in one draft and start it in June.  It would be entertaining.

Bet the draft would be done by now though chief

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I just threw away a lifetime of guilt-free sex and floor seats for every sporting event in Madison Square Garden. So please, a little respect, for I am Costanza, Lord of the Idiots! But suddenly, a new contender has emerged . . .

Why does it feel like we've been here before? BoltnLava is back up to pick. I will give you a cheat sheet on who you can choose to pick from (HINT: RB is NOT on the list.) Your only options are: TMQB, PK, or DEF.

Edited by Anarchy99
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2 hours ago, Maggot Brain said:

Again :)

Looks like Kutta did the same thing :)...and we all missed the pick at 15.11 as well; that was a 5th RB Doug Martin after already having a flex TE

Edited by Maggot Brain

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32 minutes ago, Maggot Brain said:

Looks like Kutta did the same thing :)...and we all missed the pick at 15.11 as well; that was a 5th RB Doug Martin after already having a flex TE

@Anarchy99 @kutta Doug Martin & James Conner are both illegal picks.

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I gave Kutta his defenses instead. Moving on . . .

Next year I propose that BoltnLava and Kutta can only pick RB's.

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If league 2 is the league of champions, then league 3 is the league of morons.

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5 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I gave Kutta his defenses instead. Moving on . . .

Next year I propose that BoltnLava and Kutta can only pick RB's.

Disregard my email. I see that. Damn. I suck.

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

If league 2 is the league of champions, then league 3 is the league of morons.

:hey:

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27 minutes ago, kutta said:

 

3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

If league 2 is the league of champions, then league 3 is the league of morons.

:hey:

 

And it's even funnier because you ran an engineering company as I recall.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

And it's even funnier because you ran an engineering company as I recall.

And I still do...

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Previous years' writeups: 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 a & b, 2010.

My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment to compare positions, mostly follow the numbers with a little bit of room for judgment (especially for endgame plotting, close calls, and breaking news), adjust position values slightly as the draft progresses.

1.06 TE Rob Gronkowski NE
Last year's highest scoring position player, even though it was a pretty run-of-the-mill year for him and he missed 2 games. He's the last guy left in the top tier. Also considered: none.

2.11 WR Adam Thielen MIN
The Vikings playoff value gives Thielen a bit of an edge on a bunch of similarly valued players. There was a big tier drop once Michael Thomas went off the board (which puts the people in draft slots 7 through 11 in a bit of a hole to start this draft). Also considered: RB Devonta Freeman, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR T.Y. Hilton, QB Russell Wilson.

3.06 WR T.Y. Hilton IND
Continuing through this tier. Luck seems ready to play and in sync with Hilton. Wilson is tempting but doesn't have much playoff value, and Fitz carries some extra risk because of age and even bigger QB questions. Considered doubling up on Vikings WRs to cash in big if they have a playoff run, but decided I'd be giving up a little too much expected production to do so (especially with Diggs's injury risk). Also considered: QB Russell Wilson, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Stefon Diggs.

4.11 WR Golden Tate DET
Mr. 90 receptions has been one of the steadiest producers around. Stuck him into my overnight predraft behind Wilson, Wentz, and Baldwin. WR/TE is generally where the value is at this part of the draft, and I got the last of the solid WR2 types. Also considered: RB Alex Collins, RB Derrick Henry.

5.06 RB Derrick Henry TEN
After a tier drop at WR now it's RB time. I'm generally avoiding Henry this year, because his lack of usage in the passing game & the committee backfield cut into his projection and upside. But at RB20 in a non-PPR league where a player's floor matters just as much as his ceiling, I'll take him over riskier options like Miller & Drake. Also considered: RB Lamar Miller, RB Kenyan Drake.

6.11 QB Andrew Luck IND
The depth at QB makes it a good year to wait on a QB in this format, and I was thinking I'd take another RB here. But QB Colts was just a shade ahead of the top RBs on my draft board, thanks to Luck's elite upside, how good Luck has apparently looked now since he started throwing again, and the TMQB settings + Brissett which limit his downside. And if I'm going to be taking risks, it's good to concentrate them in the same basket with the Luck+Hilton stack. Also considered: RB Mark Ingram, RB Isaiah Crowell, RB Dion Lewis.

7.06 RB Isaiah Crowell NYJ
I think that Crowell is the best RB on the Jets' roster, even though he hasn't risen to the top of the depth chart yet, and he seems like a safe bet to at least have a decent sized committee role. And since it's a close call at the top of my RB list, I'd rather not hedge my bets by doubling up on the Tennessee backfield. Also considered: RB Dion Lewis, WR Randall Cobb, PK Stephen Gostkowski, QB Jared Goff.

8.11 PK Stephen Gostkowski NE
It's kickers, defenses, and QBs at the top of my draft board. With Penny off the board, Thompson & Crowder are the best of the position players IMO and I'm not thrilled with either. (Though in hindsight I probably should've gone with Peyton Barber.) There are several similarly good QBs available, including the Browns & Redskins, so I can probably wait a few rounds on that. DST is the position with the least positional scarcity. The combination of an elite offense, elite talent, and playoff value gives Gostkowski a nice lead on the pack at PK, as previous seasons have consistently shown (e.g., last year he scored 70 points more than PK16). So kicker it is. Also considered: DST Jaguars, DST Vikings, RB Chris Thompson, WR Jamison Crowder, QB Marcus Mariota.

9.06 DST Jacksonville Jaguars JAX
Points are points. I don't see much dropoff at the offensive positions over the next few rounds, so I'll take my top defense (just barely ahead of the Vikings D). Also considered: DST Vikings, RB Chris Thompson, PK Greg Zuerlein, QB Marcus Mariota.

10.11 RB Chris Thompson WAS
I want to get QB Browns or Cowboys because they're the last of the solid QB2s, but I am willing to gamble on one of them falling to next round (especially with a few of the teams on the turn already full at QB). With Zuerlein & Tucker gone I decided to roll the dice on Thompson's health; pretty good upside if he can get back to where he was last year. Also considered: PK Jake Elliott, QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Dak Prescott, WR Kelvin Benjamin.

11.06 QB Tyrod Taylor CLE
Tossup between QB Browns and QB Cowboys. Tyrod's Bills and Dak's Cowboys have both finished top 20 each year in this format, and sometimes significantly better, thanks to Tyrod's 103/573/5 and Dak's 57/320/6 on the ground per 16 games. They should be middle of the pack this year, and 25 TMQBs have gone ahead of them. Tyrod has been less productive on the whole (thanks mainly to fewer passes & TDs) and is dealing with a left pinkie injury which probably won't hinder him, Dak has been more inconsistent and has a worse receiving corps. Dak has an earlier ADP, but much of that comes from Tyrod's job security questions which are much less relative here. Baker might be better or worse than Tyrod, but is more likely to get playing time in the worlds where he's better. Bottom line is that I had QB Browns projected very slightly higher, and both of them much higher than the remaining QBs. Also considered: QB Dak Prescott.

12.11 WR Keelan Cole JAX
Another transition point in the draft. Taking stock: I need 1 each at RB, TE, PK, and DST, probably 3 WRs (assuming I flex one), and no QBs. At RB & TE there are a decent number of adequate options left, no one stands out way above the rest, and I expect that rankings of the remaining options are pretty idiosyncratic, so I probably won't lose much by waiting a few rounds. At PK, DST, and WR I expect to see a steadier dropoff in the value of the BPA over the next few rounds. PK could be in for a big run soon, Bryant & Prater clearly stand out above the rest, and I need to avoid getting stuck with one of the last few who don't have job security. So I was planning to go kicker, until Marqise Lee's injury vaulted Cole to the top of my draft list. Also considered: PK Matt Bryant, PK Matt Prater, WR Chris Godwin, RB Bilal Powell.

13.06 PK Matt Prater DET
And I still get my kicker here. Big leg, solid team, dome stadium, new contract with plenty of job security. Also considered: none.

14.11 DST New Orleans Saints NO
Looking at defenses and WRs here, since RB & TE are in a similar situation to rd12. The Saints defense stands out above the other remaining D's so they get the nod. Also considered: WR Paul Richardson.

15.06 WR Courtland Sutton DEN
This would've been a real easy pick if Richardson had fallen to me, or if I needed a QB (with Eli still available). Instead it's lots of googling and trying to read the tea leaves. At a glance DJax looks like the safe veteran option, but he's at risk of age-related decline after setting a bunch of career lows last year and he'll need to compete for snaps & targets with Godwin and the TEs. This offseason Taywan Taylor has looked like he might be the Titans best WR, but since he played behind Tajae Sharpe he also might be their #4. Etc. Sutton appears to be the WR3 on a not-great passing offense, which is not ideal, but I think he has a decent floor since Denver should run lots of 3+ WR sets and probably won't throw that much to their TEs & RBs. And his potential talent gives him a fair amount of upside, though to realize it he'll either need to be an instant stud or get some help with Sanders or Thomas either struggling (like Sanders did last year?) or missing time. Also considered: WR DeSean Jackson, WR Donte Moncrief, WR Ryan Grant, WR Taywan Taylor, WR Quincy Enunwa, TE Gerald Everett, TE Luke Willson, TE Ryan Griffin, RB Theo Riddick.

16.11 WR Ryan Grant IND
It looks fine to keep waiting on RB & TE, so WR flex it is. Ryan Grant seems to have secured the Colts' WR2 job. He may be the Keith Bogans CHI of the NFL, mostly just taking up space out there, but he should get the ball at least occasionally. He only needs to match last year's numbers to be worth this draft pick. And since I'm already invested in the success of the Colts' passing game I might as well put another egg into that basket and take Grant ahead of other similarly valued receivers. Also considered: WR Quincy Enunwa, WR Taywan Taylor.

17.06 RB Theo Riddick DET
At least one of TEs Everett & Willson should still be available next round and they're a tossup, so I'll use this pick on my preferred RB. Riddick is the most likely remaining RB to at least have a decent sized role, so I'll take him ahead of riskier higher upside options like Wilkins (who could wind up as Indy's lead RB or a gameday inactive) and Ivory (who would benefit if McCoy misses games). I am expecting some decline in his numbers, with Detroit having the strongest backfield that they've had in a while, but that is already priced in. Also considered: RB Chris Ivory, RB Jordan Wilkins, RB LeGarrette Blount, RB Javorius Allen, TE Luke Willson, TE Gerald Everett.

18.11 TE Gerald Everett LAR
I put Everett in my predraft just ahead of Luke Willson, after going back & forth a few times and considering flipping a coin. HellToupee made it a moot point by taking Willson as his flex. Willson seems pretty locked in as Detroit's top TE, but he's more of a blocker, the Lions have been happy to barely throw to their TE when they haven't had a decent receiver there, and Hakeem Valles might wind up taking more of the receiving role. Everett is a receiver first, an early draft pick with great athleticism and after-the-catch skills, who is going into his 2nd year which is the most common time for TEs to break out. On the downside, he played behind Higbee last year and had some rookie struggles, and since he missed much of the offseason with shoulder surgery we haven't been able to see if either of those are changing. So I rated them basically equally, with both clearly ahead of guys like Virgil Green (who is even more of a blocking-type TE than Willson), Dickson (injured, depth chart competition), or Higbee. Also considered: none.

 

Review:

I like this team.

My early picks are in good position to score lots of points; I especially like getting Gronk & Tate when I did. And my late round picks all seem unlikely to be total busts, and some of them even have some upside. Luck seems like the biggest risk.

I took my PK & D relatively early, putting together a strong group there including Gostkowski who gives a nice consistent edge. I think that I didn't lose that much in doing so since I got good values late. I rate Everett in the same tier as any TE that went in round 9+ and QB Browns in the same tier as any QB that went in round 7+. I do wish I'd gotten Peyton Barber in round 8, though. And I suppose that something like Paul Richardson + Bengals D would've been slightly better than Ryan Grant + Saints D.

Last year I took TEs with 3 of my first 4 picks because they seemed undervalued. This year TEs flew off the board ahead of WRs with similar projected fpts, and the few decent values were out of sync with draft picks, so I had the longest possible wait between Gronk and my 2nd TE.

I'm heavily invested in the Colts passing game, taking a page from the DFS book and stacking QB Colts with 2 of their receivers.

The projections that I was using to draft of course like my squad the most; they have the best of the rest as Blinky, Pigskin, 5Rings, TheGrimReaper, HellToupee, and BassNBrew.

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10 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Previous years' writeups: 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011 a & b, 2010.

My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment to compare positions, mostly follow the numbers with a little bit of room for judgment (especially for endgame plotting, close calls, and breaking news), adjust position values slightly as the draft progresses.

1.06 TE Rob Gronkowski NE
Last year's highest scoring position player, even though it was a pretty run-of-the-mill year for him and he missed 2 games. He's the last guy left in the top tier. Also considered: none.

2.11 WR Adam Thielen MIN
The Vikings playoff value gives Thielen a bit of an edge on a bunch of similarly valued players. There was a big tier drop once Michael Thomas went off the board (which puts the people in draft slots 7 through 11 in a bit of a hole to start this draft). Also considered: RB Devonta Freeman, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR T.Y. Hilton, QB Russell Wilson.

3.06 WR T.Y. Hilton IND
Continuing through this tier. Luck seems ready to play and in sync with Hilton. Wilson is tempting but doesn't have much playoff value, and Fitz carries some extra risk because of age and even bigger QB questions. Considered doubling up on Vikings WRs to cash in big if they have a playoff run, but decided I'd be giving up a little too much expected production to do so (especially with Diggs's injury risk). Also considered: QB Russell Wilson, WR Larry Fitzgerald, WR Stefon Diggs.

4.11 WR Golden Tate DET
Mr. 90 receptions has been one of the steadiest producers around. Stuck him into my overnight predraft behind Wilson, Wentz, and Baldwin. WR/TE is generally where the value is at this part of the draft, and I got the last of the solid WR2 types. Also considered: RB Alex Collins, RB Derrick Henry.

5.06 RB Derrick Henry TEN
After a tier drop at WR now it's RB time. I'm generally avoiding Henry this year, because his lack of usage in the passing game & the committee backfield cut into his projection and upside. But at RB20 in a non-PPR league where a player's floor matters just as much as his ceiling, I'll take him over riskier options like Miller & Drake. Also considered: RB Lamar Miller, RB Kenyan Drake.

6.11 QB Andrew Luck IND
The depth at QB makes it a good year to wait on a QB in this format, and I was thinking I'd take another RB here. But QB Colts was just a shade ahead of the top RBs on my draft board, thanks to Luck's elite upside, how good Luck has apparently looked now since he started throwing again, and the TMQB settings + Brissett which limit his downside. And if I'm going to be taking risks, it's good to concentrate them in the same basket with the Luck+Hilton stack. Also considered: RB Mark Ingram, RB Isaiah Crowell, RB Dion Lewis.

7.06 RB Isaiah Crowell NYJ
I think that Crowell is the best RB on the Jets' roster, even though he hasn't risen to the top of the depth chart yet, and he seems like a safe bet to at least have a decent sized committee role. And since it's a close call at the top of my RB list, I'd rather not hedge my bets by doubling up on the Tennessee backfield. Also considered: RB Dion Lewis, WR Randall Cobb, PK Stephen Gostkowski, QB Jared Goff.

8.11 PK Stephen Gostkowski NE
It's kickers, defenses, and QBs at the top of my draft board. With Penny off the board, Thompson & Crowder are the best of the position players IMO and I'm not thrilled with either. (Though in hindsight I probably should've gone with Peyton Barber.) There are several similarly good QBs available, including the Browns & Redskins, so I can probably wait a few rounds on that. DST is the position with the least positional scarcity. The combination of an elite offense, elite talent, and playoff value gives Gostkowski a nice lead on the pack at PK, as previous seasons have consistently shown (e.g., last year he scored 70 points more than PK16). So kicker it is. Also considered: DST Jaguars, DST Vikings, RB Chris Thompson, WR Jamison Crowder, QB Marcus Mariota.

9.06 DST Jacksonville Jaguars JAX
Points are points. I don't see much dropoff at the offensive positions over the next few rounds, so I'll take my top defense (just barely ahead of the Vikings D). Also considered: DST Vikings, RB Chris Thompson, PK Greg Zuerlein, QB Marcus Mariota.

10.11 RB Chris Thompson WAS
I want to get QB Browns or Cowboys because they're the last of the solid QB2s, but I am willing to gamble on one of them falling to next round (especially with a few of the teams on the turn already full at QB). With Zuerlein & Tucker gone I decided to roll the dice on Thompson's health; pretty good upside if he can get back to where he was last year. Also considered: PK Jake Elliott, QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Dak Prescott, WR Kelvin Benjamin.

11.06 QB Tyrod Taylor CLE
Tossup between QB Browns and QB Cowboys. Tyrod's Bills and Dak's Cowboys have both finished top 20 each year in this format, and sometimes significantly better, thanks to Tyrod's 103/573/5 and Dak's 57/320/6 on the ground per 16 games. They should be middle of the pack this year, and 25 TMQBs have gone ahead of them. Tyrod has been less productive on the whole (thanks mainly to fewer passes & TDs) and is dealing with a left pinkie injury which probably won't hinder him, Dak has been more inconsistent and has a worse receiving corps. Dak has an earlier ADP, but much of that comes from Tyrod's job security questions which are much less relative here. Baker might be better or worse than Tyrod, but is more likely to get playing time in the worlds where he's better. Bottom line is that I had QB Browns projected very slightly higher, and both of them much higher than the remaining QBs. Also considered: QB Dak Prescott.

12.11 WR Keelan Cole JAX
Another transition point in the draft. Taking stock: I need 1 each at RB, TE, PK, and DST, probably 3 WRs (assuming I flex one), and no QBs. At RB & TE there are a decent number of adequate options left, no one stands out way above the rest, and I expect that rankings of the remaining options are pretty idiosyncratic, so I probably won't lose much by waiting a few rounds. At PK, DST, and WR I expect to see a steadier dropoff in the value of the BPA over the next few rounds. PK could be in for a big run soon, Bryant & Prater clearly stand out above the rest, and I need to avoid getting stuck with one of the last few who don't have job security. So I was planning to go kicker, until Marqise Lee's injury vaulted Cole to the top of my draft list. Also considered: PK Matt Bryant, PK Matt Prater, WR Chris Godwin, RB Bilal Powell.

13.06 PK Matt Prater DET
And I still get my kicker here. Big leg, solid team, dome stadium, new contract with plenty of job security. Also considered: none.

14.11 DST New Orleans Saints NO
Looking at defenses and WRs here, since RB & TE are in a similar situation to rd12. The Saints defense stands out above the other remaining D's so they get the nod. Also considered: WR Paul Richardson.

15.06 WR Courtland Sutton DEN
This would've been a real easy pick if Richardson had fallen to me, or if I needed a QB (with Eli still available). Instead it's lots of googling and trying to read the tea leaves. At a glance DJax looks like the safe veteran option, but he's at risk of age-related decline after setting a bunch of career lows last year and he'll need to compete for snaps & targets with Godwin and the TEs. This offseason Taywan Taylor has looked like he might be the Titans best WR, but since he played behind Tajae Sharpe he also might be their #4. Etc. Sutton appears to be the WR3 on a not-great passing offense, which is not ideal, but I think he has a decent floor since Denver should run lots of 3+ WR sets and probably won't throw that much to their TEs & RBs. And his potential talent gives him a fair amount of upside, though to realize it he'll either need to be an instant stud or get some help with Sanders or Thomas either struggling (like Sanders did last year?) or missing time. Also considered: WR DeSean Jackson, WR Donte Moncrief, WR Ryan Grant, WR Taywan Taylor, WR Quincy Enunwa, TE Gerald Everett, TE Luke Willson, TE Ryan Griffin, RB Theo Riddick.

16.11 WR Ryan Grant IND
It looks fine to keep waiting on RB & TE, so WR flex it is. Ryan Grant seems to have secured the Colts' WR2 job. He may be the Keith Bogans CHI of the NFL, mostly just taking up space out there, but he should get the ball at least occasionally. He only needs to match last year's numbers to be worth this draft pick. And since I'm already invested in the success of the Colts' passing game I might as well put another egg into that basket and take Grant ahead of other similarly valued receivers. Also considered: WR Quincy Enunwa, WR Taywan Taylor.

17.06 RB Theo Riddick DET
At least one of TEs Everett & Willson should still be available next round and they're a tossup, so I'll use this pick on my preferred RB. Riddick is the most likely remaining RB to at least have a decent sized role, so I'll take him ahead of riskier higher upside options like Wilkins (who could wind up as Indy's lead RB or a gameday inactive) and Ivory (who would benefit if McCoy misses games). I am expecting some decline in his numbers, with Detroit having the strongest backfield that they've had in a while, but that is already priced in. Also considered: RB Chris Ivory, RB Jordan Wilkins, RB LeGarrette Blount, RB Javorius Allen, TE Luke Willson, TE Gerald Everett.

18.11 TE Gerald Everett LAR
I put Everett in my predraft just ahead of Luke Willson, after going back & forth a few times and considering flipping a coin. HellToupee made it a moot point by taking Willson as his flex. Willson seems pretty locked in as Detroit's top TE, but he's more of a blocker, the Lions have been happy to barely throw to their TE when they haven't had a decent receiver there, and Hakeem Valles might wind up taking more of the receiving role. Everett is a receiver first, an early draft pick with great athleticism and after-the-catch skills, who is going into his 2nd year which is the most common time for TEs to break out. On the downside, he played behind Higbee last year and had some rookie struggles, and since he missed much of the offseason with shoulder surgery we haven't been able to see if either of those are changing. So I rated them basically equally, with both clearly ahead of guys like Virgil Green (who is even more of a blocking-type TE than Willson), Dickson (injured, depth chart competition), or Higbee. Also considered: none.

 

Review:

I like this team.

My early picks are in good position to score lots of points; I especially like getting Gronk & Tate when I did. And my late round picks all seem unlikely to be total busts, and some of them even have some upside. Luck seems like the biggest risk.

I took my PK & D relatively early, putting together a strong group there including Gostkowski who gives a nice consistent edge. I think that I didn't lose that much in doing so since I got good values late. I rate Everett in the same tier as any TE that went in round 9+ and QB Browns in the same tier as any QB that went in round 7+. I do wish I'd gotten Peyton Barber in round 8, though. And I suppose that something like Paul Richardson + Bengals D would've been slightly better than Ryan Grant + Saints D.

Last year I took TEs with 3 of my first 4 picks because they seemed undervalued. This year TEs flew off the board ahead of WRs with similar projected fpts, and the few decent values were out of sync with draft picks, so I had the longest possible wait between Gronk and my 2nd TE.

I'm heavily invested in the Colts passing game, taking a page from the DFS book and stacking QB Colts with 2 of their receivers.

The projections that I was using to draft of course like my squad the most; they have the best of the rest as Blinky, Pigskin, 5Rings, TheGrimReaper, HellToupee, and BassNBrew.

Great write up. I really like your team. Probably would have gone with Diggs 

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Maggot Brain off to a ridiculously good start behind Michael Thomas, Matt Ryan, and Jared Cook. Already 150+ pts ahead of the rest of the league, and 90+ pts ahead of the first place team in any of the other leagues.

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