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wlwiles

Official 10th Pick (redraft) Thread

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I used to love reading in these threads the last couple of seasons, trying to see what others were doing in my same position, see if I was targeting the right guys, etc.  Didn't see any of these threads for this year so figured I'd start one. 

My league is PPR, 10 team redraft, start QRRWWTF.  I've done a dozen mocks so far, and here's what I'm finding. 

  • The best RB available in the 1st is Barkley ~30% of the time, Hunt ~30%, and Gordon 40%. 
  • So 70% of the time (I don't feel that Hunt or Gordon are worth the 1.10 personally) I'm looking at a WR/WR start, with OBJ/Julio/Thomas/Allen to choose from there. 
  • If I go WR/WR, the best RB available at the 3/4 turn is typically Drake/Collins, and every now and then Mixon or Howard will be there. 
  • I did luck up once and started OBJ/Thomas/McCaffrey/Howard which was by far my favorite team. 
  • I typically hope to start Barkley/WR, and in my real league where people overvalue top QBs (6pt pass TD), I think I stand a decent shot at getting him at 10. 
  • Hill makes it to 3.10 about half the time, and almost always one of Diggs/Thielen is there as well, tempting you to start WR/WR/WR.  This is what I usually do, and snag Mixon/Howard/Drake as my RB1 
  • Zach Ertz is always there at 3.10 every single time - Kelce is never there, always taken somewhere in the top half of 3rd
  • About 75% of the time Engram is there at 5.10
  • Olsen/Walker are always gone by 7.10, so if you want one of "my" top 6 (Gronk/Kelce/Ertz/Engram/Olsen/Walker) you gotta get em by the 5/6 turn, which does feel like reaching some...
  • Edit to add - I’ve always been a Wait On QB guy, so I haven’t paid real close notes to where the first few QBs are going in this.  I’ll try to note that in future mocks and add to this for anyone interested. 

Curious to see what others are shooting for.  I know it's not kosher to go into a draft with a "RB/WR/WR/RB/TE..." set strategy, and VBD and all that, but I find myself hoping in every mock that Barkley is available at 1.10, and I have no expectations of being able to comfortably start RB/RB from this slot.  

Edited by wlwiles
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Lol. I was thinking the same thing, and just posted my 3rd Pick thread in the AC forum thinking they’d been moved or outlawed or something. Felt weird not seeing them as they are full of good discussion every year.

I don’t have a ten pick, so haven’t thought about it too much, but I’ll take a look at my mocks and rankings and provide some of my own insight.

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10th spot here in a 12 team redraft - QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX

At 1.10 I've been debating RB (Fournette/Gordon/Hunt/Cook) vs. WR (OBJ/Allen/Julio). I'd love to get 2 of those 7 players at 1.10 and 2.3, and ideally a RB and WR. Not all have been available at 10, and when I go WR at 1.10 I'm usually left with CMC or McKinnon at 2.3. Leaning toward best RB at 1.10 followed by best remaining of the 7 I've listed. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

how is Barkley there at 10?

This is on Yahoo, so it’s “biased” using their ranks.  Every single mock I’ve done has Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ, AB, Kamara, Hopkins in some order as 7 of the first 8 gone. Barkley only lasts to 1.10 if 1.08 & 1.09 take another 2 WRs, or one goes Hunt/Gordon over Barkley.  It hasn’t happened but maybe 4 times out of a dozen or so mocks I’ve done. 

 

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that's crazy. I feel like barkely will be gone by 10 but maybe not. 

Hunt isnt the next best rb. I'd consider fournette or cook over hunt, but that's just me. 

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2 hours ago, mr blond said:

10th spot here in a 12 team redraft - QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX

At 1.10 I've been debating RB (Fournette/Gordon/Hunt/Cook) vs. WR (OBJ/Allen/Julio). I'd love to get 2 of those 7 players at 1.10 and 2.3, and ideally a RB and WR. Not all have been available at 10, and when I go WR at 1.10 I'm usually left with CMC or McKinnon at 2.3. Leaning toward best RB at 1.10 followed by best remaining of the 7 I've listed. 

The only WRs I would take in the first round are Brown and Hopkins. Take your best RB in the first and come back with the best WR in the second if you're inclined to go RB-WR.

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just found out I have this pick for a draft tomorrow.  initial thinking is rb/wr.  doubt barkley falls but barkley/fournette/Gordon/hunt/cook for rbs and julio/obj/allen for wrs

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14 minutes ago, need2know said:

just found out I have this pick for a draft tomorrow.  initial thinking is rb/wr.  doubt barkley falls but barkley/fournette/Gordon/hunt/cook for rbs and julio/obj/allen for wrs

Had pick 10 in 12 team PPR last night.   M.Gordon & J.Jones were first two picks.   Some really fine players available for your 3 & 4th pick.  I went WR, WR(Fitz & Ju Ju) but some fringe RB ones-- available there.

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3 minutes ago, irishidiot said:

Had pick 10 in 12 team PPR last night.   M.Gordon & J.Jones were first two picks.   Some really fine players available for your 3 & 4th pick.  I went WR, WR(Fitz & Ju Ju) but some fringe RB ones-- available there.

was fournette there?

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Been doing some more mocks, and it's becoming more apparent that Barkley isn't going to be there without multiple people taking QBs in the first, which could happen in a real league if passing TDs are 6 points or there is some kind of inflated QB scoring.  

I definitely see a tier of RBs emerging through doing enough mocks.  After Gurley/Bell/Zeke/DJ (Tier 1), there's Kamara/Barkley (Tier 2), and then it's a tier of Fournette/Hunt/Gordon/Cook in some order.  You're guaranteed to get two out of that tier if you want to start RB/RB in a 10 team, or you're guaranteed at least one in a 12 team, but it might have to be with your first pick. 

After doing more mocks and reading a bit more on this tier, I think I'm ranking them Fournette, Gordon, Cook, Hunt personally.  Just don't have a ton of faith in Hunt with how he disappeared at times last season.  Cook is susceptible to a slow start, but the usage at the start of last season was on pace for top 6 RB production.  Fournette is a TD machine, but injury is a risk more than the others I think.  Gordon to me is solid floor, but probably nothing more than RB8 ceiling IMO. 

Edited by wlwiles

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22 minutes ago, need2know said:

was fournette there?

Fournette went 9th pick overall.

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Picked 10th in a 12-Team PPR redraft last night.  Took M. Gordon over Jones, Cook, OBJ, and Fournette in Round 1.

Then took M. Thomas over Allen, Adams, McCaffrey in Rd 2.

Went Hilton and Collins in 3/4.

 

 

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23 hours ago, Wheezer34 said:

Picked 10th in a 12-Team PPR redraft last night.  Took M. Gordon over Jones, Cook, OBJ, and Fournette in Round 1.

Then took M. Thomas over Allen, Adams, McCaffrey in Rd 2.

Went Hilton and Collins in 3/4.

 

 

Which WRs were available to you at 3.10?  

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Start qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, flex, team k def

Brees, Winston

Gordon, Howard, Miller, burkhead, Clement

Obj, Fitz, Sanders, Crowder

Olsen, Rudolph

Pitt k

Pats def

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Ok in a 10 team ppr redraft, from the 10 hole, and assuming a rb/wr start (say Gordon & OBJ or Julio).....do any of you consider Josh Gordon at that 3/4 turn?  The more mocks I do he isn't making it back to the 5/6 turn anymore.

Is that reaching?  The problem with the turns is that if you really want someone you often have to reach.  If both Fitz and Baldwin make it to that 3/4 turn I'd obviously go there first...but assuming 1 or both of those go I have a hard time putting a lot of the consensus guys over Gordon.

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59 minutes ago, Ace08 said:

Ok in a 10 team ppr redraft, from the 10 hole, and assuming a rb/wr start (say Gordon & OBJ or Julio).....do any of you consider Josh Gordon at that 3/4 turn?  The more mocks I do he isn't making it back to the 5/6 turn anymore.

Is that reaching?  The problem with the turns is that if you really want someone you often have to reach.  If both Fitz and Baldwin make it to that 3/4 turn I'd obviously go there first...but assuming 1 or both of those go I have a hard time putting a lot of the consensus guys over Gordon.

Personally I’m not taking Gordon over the WRs that I typically see at the 3/4 turn (Fitz, Diggs, Baldwin, Hilton, Demaryius, even Landry) just because so much is unknown. Haven’t seen anything in preseason, we don’t know that the Browns are going to actually be good, usage/split with Landry is unknown, it’s not like Tyrod has produced multiple fantasy startable receivers before, if it’s Mayfield who knows what we’ll get, etc. I was liking his upside more at the end of the 5th but that 3/4 price is too steep IMO. 

But like you said, he’s not making back to the 5/6 turn lately so if you want him at 3/4, do it. Drafting from an end means reaching isn’t really a thing for us!

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20 hours ago, wlwiles said:

Which WRs were available to you at 3.10?  

These were the WR's and the order they were taken:

 

Hilton

Fitzgerald

Baldwin

Cooper

Hogan

Diggs

D. Thomas

Tate

JuJu

 

Edited by Wheezer34

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Just had my 10-team PPR redraft from the 10 spot. 

QB Luck

RB Fournette, McCoy, RFreeman, Ajayi, Michel, Barber

WR Hopkins, Hilton, Hill, Landry

TE Reed, Kittle

K Butker

DST Saints

 

There’s always a couple folks that reach early, in this draft we had 3QBs go in the first two rounds so that started the slides all over for other guys. Almost got McCaffrey at 3.10, he went 3.08 so I opted for Hill and Hilton over Mixon/Drake/Collins types. Melvin Gordon slid all the way to 2.07 and got paired with DJ so that guys backfield is stacked.   No way in hell I should get Landry as my WR4 at 7.10, and I basically ignored the WR position after that as I’d rather load up on RB lotto tickets and injury trade bait the rest of the draft. Shady slid to me at the 5/6 turn - he’s not someone I ever considered in mocks because someone would always take him but at that price I felt it was too cheap to pass up. I was targeting Burton at the 7/8 turn but he went 3 picks before me there so I decided to wait on Reed, got him at 11.10, backed up by Kittle at 14.01.  Luck was the 12th QB drafted.  I knew I’d be the last to get one, and I almost waited too long as Ben and Jimmy G went as backups before I took Luck at 12.01.  

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On 8/28/2018 at 10:07 PM, wlwiles said:

Just had my 10-team PPR redraft from the 10 spot. 

QB Luck

RB Fournette, McCoy, RFreeman, Ajayi, Michel, Barber

WR Hopkins, Hilton, Hill, Landry

TE Reed, Kittle

K Butker

DST Saints

 

There’s always a couple folks that reach early, in this draft we had 3QBs go in the first two rounds so that started the slides all over for other guys. Almost got McCaffrey at 3.10, he went 3.08 so I opted for Hill and Hilton over Mixon/Drake/Collins types. Melvin Gordon slid all the way to 2.07 and got paired with DJ so that guys backfield is stacked.   No way in hell I should get Landry as my WR4 at 7.10, and I basically ignored the WR position after that as I’d rather load up on RB lotto tickets and injury trade bait the rest of the draft. Shady slid to me at the 5/6 turn - he’s not someone I ever considered in mocks because someone would always take him but at that price I felt it was too cheap to pass up. I was targeting Burton at the 7/8 turn but he went 3 picks before me there so I decided to wait on Reed, got him at 11.10, backed up by Kittle at 14.01.  Luck was the 12th QB drafted.  I knew I’d be the last to get one, and I almost waited too long as Ben and Jimmy G went as backups before I took Luck at 12.01.  

Very well done!

Boom or bust at TE but you can do that in a ten team league since there will be plenty of other choices if these guy's don't work out.

Great depth at RB. If McCoy works out you will crush. Plenty of guy's you can throw in at flex if need be.

Love the receivers.

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On 8/28/2018 at 10:32 PM, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

Anyone have a real draft from the 10 spot lately?

me last night. 0.5 ppr

OBJ, Hunt, Gronk, Hill, Drake, Cam, ....etc.

a little heavy on Chiefs, but i'm pretty happy with it.

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9 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

10 team?

yes

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15 hours ago, joffer said:

me last night. 0.5 ppr

OBJ, Hunt, Gronk, Hill, Drake, Cam, ....etc.

a little heavy on Chiefs, but i'm pretty happy with it.

Judging by the OBJ/Hunt picks you must have had pick 7 at best, and getting Gronk in the 3rd round of any type of PPR league is just straight theft on your part.  Well done!

Edit: Duh, it was pick 10. Too much drafting, not enough sleep. 

Edited by wlwiles

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On 8/22/2018 at 9:17 PM, Ace08 said:

Ok in a 10 team ppr redraft, from the 10 hole, and assuming a rb/wr start (say Gordon & OBJ or Julio).....do any of you consider Josh Gordon at that 3/4 turn?  The more mocks I do he isn't making it back to the 5/6 turn anymore.

Is that reaching?  The problem with the turns is that if you really want someone you often have to reach.  If both Fitz and Baldwin make it to that 3/4 turn I'd obviously go there first...but assuming 1 or both of those go I have a hard time putting a lot of the consensus guys over Gordon.

Nope.  Too many better proven player s imo too take Gordon there

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On 8/29/2018 at 1:07 AM, wlwiles said:

Just had my 10-team PPR redraft from the 10 spot. 

QB Luck

RB Fournette, McCoy, RFreeman, Ajayi, Michel, Barber

WR Hopkins, Hilton, Hill, Landry

TE Reed, Kittle

K Butker

DST Saints

 

There’s always a couple folks that reach early, in this draft we had 3QBs go in the first two rounds so that started the slides all over for other guys. Almost got McCaffrey at 3.10, he went 3.08 so I opted for Hill and Hilton over Mixon/Drake/Collins types. Melvin Gordon slid all the way to 2.07 and got paired with DJ so that guys backfield is stacked.   No way in hell I should get Landry as my WR4 at 7.10, and I basically ignored the WR position after that as I’d rather load up on RB lotto tickets and injury trade bait the rest of the draft. Shady slid to me at the 5/6 turn - he’s not someone I ever considered in mocks because someone would always take him but at that price I felt it was too cheap to pass up. I was targeting Burton at the 7/8 turn but he went 3 picks before me there so I decided to wait on Reed, got him at 11.10, backed up by Kittle at 14.01.  Luck was the 12th QB drafted.  I knew I’d be the last to get one, and I almost waited too long as Ben and Jimmy G went as backups before I took Luck at 12.01.  

Are you sure this wasn’t a 6 person draft? Sheesh, great lineup. Maybe I’m just biased because those are all guys I like. But Landry in the 7th is pretty ridiculous. I’d say good luck but pretty sure you’re gonna do just fine ;)

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6 hours ago, wlwiles said:

Judging by the OBJ/Hunt picks you must have had pick 7 at best, and getting Gronk in the 3rd round of any type of PPR league is just straight theft on your part.  Well done!

you understand what the thread is about right?

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3 hours ago, joffer said:

you understand what the thread is about right?

OOOOPS. Worst part is, I started this thread. :shock: :wall: bouncing around the SP too fast I guess, forgot where I was.

My point was just to congratulate on getting Gronk in the third, I haven’t seen him escape the 2nd of any draft yet

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