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Are you unhappy?

Feeling trapped?

Does the thought of taking Michael Thomas in the 2nd round make you feel like a helpless crumb on the gaping maw that is, the universe?

Good. Then you are ready.

We are going to grab three or four running backs, and a tight end or QB, or both, with our first five picks. (in a prr league with start 3WR this idea probably sucks, standards should read on)

We will assimilate RBs a full round early if need be, and avoid WR until the 6th round. Then we are going to take a mix of big play and volume WRs throughout the rest of our draft until we have 5 (at most) on our roster. We can find WR depth on waivers (because it happens every. single. year.) or trade an RB to some desperate soul sitting at 1-4.

Why? Because WR is super deep and we can create WR 1 production if the universe deems us worthy.

Non-believers may scoff at our ways, but fix your eyes on the list below, and revel in it's glory....

ROUND 1

Favorite RB, but probably not David Johnson. He is super talented, but a not good team and a brutal schedule worry me.

ROUND  2

McCaffrey: His floor is serviceable and his big play ability can mitigate a lack of volume.

Howard: Volume, touchdowns, far better staff, better game scripts, better D, nowhere to go but up. Sleeper top 5 RB

Gronk: Gronk smash.

ROUND 3

Alex Collins: Ho hum pedigree, no hype, just a guy. That is how most heroic stories begin.

Kelce: Mahomes will throw to him even when he is covered.

ROUND 4

Kerryon Johnson: He won't be there in round 5. I know you think he will, but he won't. Somebody will be aggresive, and you will be MORE AGGRESIVE

Royce Freeman: Same

Aaron Rodgers is pissed. You can tell. I like an angry QB (Tom Brady anyone?). Take him and snipe handcuff RBs late while everyone gets "value" at QB

ROUND 5

Lynch: He will be better than last year and also he is fun to cheer for. People love him. Someone will trade for him if it comes to that.

C. Thompson: Washington's O-Line will be better. It has to because last year was an actual nightmare. Alex Smith will love him.

Deshaun Watson: A golden schedule and a healthier defense will help him stay on the field longer. We can stomach some down games because our strength is RB and TE. Plus, if he hits we win that week. He will hit at least 5 times this year. Which means as long as you don't fudge up your team and manage to stay healthy, you will finish with 6 wins. 7 sometimes gets you into the playoffs...

ROUND 6

Finally...

Goodwin: Fate has chosen him to anchor your WR corps. He will be going at the 3/4 turn in next year's draft.

Crabtree: Volume. So much volume.

ROUND 7

Chris Hogan: If he is still on the board, this is easy money.

Jordy: What if he is not washed up? We want WR1 numbers. He could do it for part of the season. The perfect guy to trade if he starts hot. (OAK has a rough week 9 and on. Trade any OAK player before then)

ROUND 8

Did you forget a TE? Take Jack Doyle now!

Kupp: Is he still here? Why? Is everyone in your league a non-believer?!

Robby Anderson: Bad team, bad scripts, MORE VOLUME

ROUND 9:

Mike Williams: Touchdowns for days. Take him the 8th if you want. If Keenan Allen goes down...the rapture will be upon us!

Calvin Ridley: I am taking him in round 7 sometimes. But that is just me.

ROUND 10 and on:

Now we have 3/4 WRs. Be ready to pounce on any and all upside/value.  Snipe RBs because you league will not expect it.

If you don't want to wear this fancy hood and cloak then I guess it is okay to do the whole wait on QB thing past round 10 if you didn't have the guts to draft Rodgers or Watson.

Either way, here is all the upside you could ever want at WR/RB...

WRs to round out roster

John Brown

John Ross

Anthony Miller

Godwin (be patient)

Stills

RBs for the pilfering

Matt Breida

Corey Clement

James Connor

James White

Rob Kelley (yes, I am serious)

Bilal Powell (worst first name ever)

Jordan Wilkins

 

We want to walk away from our draft with the most RBs. Every year people become desperate for solid RBs. We've both seen it. Those pathetic, cringe inducing rosters around week 10. Bereft of RB talent, and you say to yourself, "Thank the maker that is not my team"

You can literally dictate the trade market with this type of roster. Your fellow leaguemates will both resent and envy what you have done. All will bow before your glory.

Now... you are one of us.

One of us.

One of us.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I like the strategy, but Hogan and Goodwin are no longer going that late in drafts.  I've completed two drafts online today and in both drafts  they were both gone by the mid 5th round.

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Hard pass. No pun intended. 

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Looking at Hogan in 6 or 7.  Seems like TB is all over him in PS.

I'm hearing Ridley is having a hard time catching the ball.  Correct ATL?

 

Edited by Corn Rocket

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Hmmm.  Good luck with that.  

Whole thing about Zero RB was cashing in on these 3rd down RB types, and lining up Woodhead/Riddick/Duke types, and getting production you can count on week and and week out.

You didn't need to guess right with them, you just needed them to do what they were expected to.

With this strategy, you really gotta nail these mid round guys, and they gotta seriously outperform their expected production.  Tough to do.

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I don't mind this as much as most.  Obviously the theatrics of the post is going to attract some backlash, but on a slightly less extreme scale, I dig it.

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Dude has a ween tattoo for his avatar. I love ween.  I guess he’s my new favorite poster.

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I plan to go RB heavy in the leagues where scoring and lineup requirements allow it. But I'm not quite dead set on avoiding a WR, especially if I can get a player with top 5 potential with my second pick (Thomas, Adams). Rounds 3-5 I like the value a lot better at RB than at WR, so I load up on RB whenever possible. I like Graham (TD monster this year) or Engram (lots of yards and about 8 TDs) in round 4 or 5, then I can focus on WR and grab a bunch of cheap WR2/3s in rounds 6-10. Finish with a QBBC and call it a draft.  

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I don't mind the zero anything strategy, but if I do it I want a clear advantage over my opponents in the other areas and what you have laid out doesn't give me that.

Example of zero running back.

  1. 1.06 - Antonio Brown/Hopkins
  2.  2.07 - Gronk/Allen/Adams/Green
  3. 3.06 - Kelce/Hilton/Evans
  4.  4.07 Ertz/Fitz/Hill/JuJu
  5.  5.06 Rodgers/Marvin Jones/Cooks
  6.  6.07 Brady/Wilson/Watson/Hogan/Goodwin
  7. 7.06 Crowell/Carson/Lynch
  8. 8.07 Barber/GB backs/Cleveland backs
  9. 9.06 there maybe some of these guys left from round 7 or 8 plus a guy like C.J. Anderson/Duke Johnson.
  10. 10.07 James White/Booker/Martin

So a lineup of Crowell, Barber, Aaron Jones, Duke Johnson to throw in with

Wilson

Crowell, Barber

Brown, Allen, Hilton, Cooks

Ertz

Just looks like it has a better shot at competing. Your receivers would give you an advantage over everyone in that league, Wilson and Ertz both have the potential to be the top scorer for the position in any week.

 

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If you could get Hogan and Goodwin at those prices, it would be great. Looks like both are going to be 5th rounders in upcoming drafts.

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Quincy Enunwa late is a guy I have as having the upside for 100 targets. Davante Parker preinjury was another guy I had with the possibility of a big target share. If you know what you’re looking for I think this could be a viable strategy 

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Calvin Ridley in round 7 seems insane (although I do see that his ADP is rising).  Does anyone want to rank the rookie WR in re-draft?

I see it roughly as:

Moore

Miller

Gallup

Sutton

Ridley

Kirk

 

 

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2 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Calvin Ridley in round 7 seems insane (although I do see that his ADP is rising).  Does anyone want to rank the rookie WR in re-draft?

I see it roughly as:

Moore

Miller

Gallup

Sutton

Ridley

Kirk

 

 

Mike Williams is overrated too, IMO. Chase targets and upside if you’re going zero WR. Godwin and Golladay are musts. 

Edited by Bojang0301

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In non ppr this is actually the way to go.  Rbs and qbs put up the most points

 

only deviation would be round 2 if rbs fly off the board take a wr 1

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I did a recent 12 team .5 PPR auction draft (start QRRWWWTF) and ended up with David Johnson, Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey at RB.   At WR I got Hogan, E. Sanders and Stills as my starters with some high upside guys like A. Miller, Lockett and John Brown on as depth.  QB and TE are Ryan and Njoku.  Overall pretty happy with it 

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23 minutes ago, Raback said:

I did a recent 12 team .5 PPR auction draft (start QRRWWWTF) and ended up with David Johnson, Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey at RB.   At WR I got Hogan, E. Sanders and Stills as my starters with some high upside guys like A. Miller, Lockett and John Brown on as depth.  QB and TE are Ryan and Njoku.  Overall pretty happy with it 

How is it posaible to get those three rbs?

Edited cause i guess its very possible in an auction. 

Edited by Neo
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Just spitballing, iIn non-PPR, Which WR below ADP of 60 could finish WR12 or higher (say with like a 25% chance or better)?

Corey Davis

Marquise Goodwin

Robby Anderson

Crabtree

Hogan maybe, though he will probably be less consistent

 

Who can be 13-24?

I'd say around 15 guys: Woods, Kupp, Watkins, Funchess, Moore, Garcon, Sanders, Nelson, Agholor, Stills, Golloday, Gallup, Godwin, maybe Mike Williams or Anthony Miller 

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Overall I imagine you can create a very solid team doing this.  But like with zero RB, you're backing yourself into a corner if your picks don't work out.  And lets be honest, probably 50% of them won't work out.  That's the appeal of multiple RB's or WR's in the top 5 rounds.  Diversify, leaves you with more protection against injuries and bye weeks.  You're simply more flexible.  Personally I hate the idea of "zero anything" because it just isn't safe.  That's the whole point of the draft, is to get out with a very safe floor and some ceiling to reach.  

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19 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

Just spitballing, iIn non-PPR, Which WR below ADP of 60 could finish WR12 or higher (say with like a 25% chance or better)?

Corey Davis

Marquise Goodwin

Robby Anderson

Crabtree

Hogan maybe, though he will probably be less consistent

 

Who can be 13-24?

I'd say around 15 guys: Woods, Kupp, Watkins, Funchess, Moore, Garcon, Sanders, Nelson, Agholor, Stills, Golloday, Gallup, Godwin, maybe Mike Williams or Anthony Miller 

I wouldnt give any of those guys better than 5 percent chance at a top 12 finish. Anderson, Goodwin, Davis, Hogan, Crabtree, in that order. Davis, Hogan and Crabtree are real long shots. 

 

As for the other guys, in no particular order. Kupp, Watkins, Moore, Agholor all have legit shots at top 24. The rest of the guys need a lot of breaks or injuries which is hard to predict. 

Edited by msudaisy26

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It’s a bold strategy, cotton let’s see if it pays off...

in my standard redraft what I have found (I pick at the 3 spot) is that I love my team whe. I take Zeke at 3 and then follow it up with either Gronk and 2 WRs before taking my next rb, or going 2-3 WRs straight.  Usually goes something like Zeke, Gronk, Baldwin, Hogan, l. Miller.  I like that start.  Or Zeke, d Adams, Baldwin, (ajayi, Collins or drake). 

But, ultimately, what has always served me best in the first 5-6 rounds is to just go with the flow. Take BPA (avoiding qb), let the players fall to me, and try to zig when the other owners are zagging.  If they go on a huge RB tear from my Zeke pick and AJ green falls to me at 2.9 I will jump for joy.  If they go heavy wr and I don’t like what’s there at wr at 2.9 that means a great RB had to have fallen to me. Maybe cmc.  Sure I’ll bite.  

Be like water my friend.  

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I’ve got pick 1.01in one league and I’m seriously thinking of going Gurley/LB/Zeke whichever one when it’s time and then at the 2/3 turn Howard and Mixon or another RB if anyone drops. It looks like I can grab serviceable wrs at 4/5 and later. Not sure if I’ll have the sack to pull the trigger if someone like Evans or AJ Green is still sitting there at the turn but I’m pondering it. There’s two flex slots in this league with only two start wrs and no TE start. I like going three rbs in rounds 1/2/3 and I KNOW I can trade those rbs for a kings ransom in this league once the season is underway. 

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Subscribed!

I had the 9th pick in a 2 keeper, 12 teamer ppr with starters of QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE/K/D. Keepers were Bell and Mixon. I didn't like the choice of WR's at 3.09 and decided to punt WR's and go strong everywhere else. Reminded me of this thread. Hoping a couple of the WR's pan out.

QB: Rodgers (4.4)

RB: Bell (K), Mixon (K), Crowell (7.9), Barber (9.9), White (10.4)

WR: Goodwin (5.9), Hogan (6.4), Anderson (8.4), M Williams (12.4), Godwin (14.9)

TE: Kelce (3.9)

K: Tucker (13.9)

D: Chargers (11.9)

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4 minutes ago, Lionsfan011 said:

Subscribed!

I had the 9th pick in a 2 keeper, 12 teamer ppr with starters of QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE/K/D. Keepers were Bell and Mixon. I didn't like the choice of WR's at 3.09 and decided to punt WR's and go strong everywhere else. Reminded me of this thread. Hoping a couple of the WR's pan out.

QB: Rodgers (4.4)

RB: Bell (K), Mixon (K), Crowell (7.9), Barber (9.9), White (10.4)

WR: Goodwin (5.9), Hogan (6.4), Anderson (8.4), M Williams (12.4), Godwin (14.9)

TE: Kelce (3.9)

K: Tucker (13.9)

D: Chargers (11.9)

Looks closer to a std draft except for blowing a 4th on QB  Which RB fills in for the bye(s) and/or injuries  Seems like w a flex that you could consider holding off on a WR until the 6th

It could be I'm reading the OP wrong too

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Naw you guys are doing it wrong. Imo you go RB/RB/RB/WR/RB/WR. I'm addicted to RBs though. Unless of course crazy value falls to you.

Edited by Weebs210

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I listened to a podcast over the summer- I think it was with JJ but I honestly can't remember. Anyway, the guest was a numbers guy and did some big picture analyis of player performance. Here were the conclusions I found interesting. 

Before the season:

WRs are easier to predict than RBs. The draft drankings/ADPs we see for WRs year to year are more accurate than RB rankings. It makes sense since RBs get injured at a higher rate and it's more common for  WRs from the same team to be weekly fantasy must starts than it is for RBs. A good passing offense can very easily support 2 top 24 WRs but very rarely do we see a rushing offense support 2 top 24 RBs. So if Chris Godwin breaks out this year, it doesn't mean Mike Evans is doomed. On the other hand, if Tarik Cohen breaks out for a big year, it is likely at the detriment of Jordan Howard. 

Week to week:

RBs are easier to predict than WRs. The weekly rankings by the conscensus experts are much more accurate for RBs thanfor WRs. Week to week we are better at knowing who the lead back for a team will be. The lead backs get work. Even the best WRs can have weeks where they just don't get receptions. 

 

So to me, this says it is smart to spend early draft capital on those top end WRs. They are more likely to finish close to their ADP and will most likely offer the smoothest ride week to week. If you get a lot of mid to late RBs, you will have a better idea of when to start them than you would mid to late round WRs.

Edited by Ilov80s
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Just to add to my previous post, we already have the evidence for it now. It's only week 3 of the preseason and we already have a few RBs who were going super late or weren't even getting drafted (Peterson, Jonathon Williams, Barber, Carson) are now viable flex or RB2 plays for week 1. While they don't have the yearly upside of a Joe Mixon or Kareem Hunt, they are pretty certain to get significant touches to start the year and touches lead to points. 

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3 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I listened to a podcast over the summer- I think it was with JJ but I honestly can't remember. Anyway, the guest was a numbers guy and did some big picture analyis of player performance. Here were the conclusions I found interesting. 

Before the season:

WRs are easier to predict than RBs. The draft drankings/ADPs we see for WRs year to year are more accurate than RB rankings. It makes sense since RBs get injured at a higher rate and it's more common for  WRs from the same team to be weekly fantasy must starts than it is for RBs. A good passing offense can very easily support 2 top 24 WRs but very rarely do we see a rushing offense support 2 top 24 RBs. So if Chris Godwin breaks out this year, it doesn't mean Mike Evans is doomed. On the other hand, if Tarik Cohen breaks out for a big year, it is likely at the detriment of Jordan Howard. 

Week to week:

RBs are easier to predict than WRs. The weekly rankings by the conscensus experts are much more accurate for RBs thanfor WRs. Week to week we are better at knowing who the lead back for a team will be. The lead backs get work. Even the best WRs can have weeks where they just don't get receptions. 

 

So to me, this says it is smart to spend early draft capital on those top end WRs. They are more likely to finish close to their ADP and will most likely offer the smoothest ride week to week. If you get a lot of mid to late RBs, you will have a better idea of when to start them than you would mid to late round WRs.

I agree with the overall premise, and that is part of what went into the zero RB philosophy, I think.  I think that it feels totally true to me that there is WR value all over the board, though I think that part of that for me is that it seems like so many of the WR2 and 3 on teams are young guys, who have a theoretical chance of breaking out to number 1.  In the past, I've felt like lower round receivers were more older guys who might be reliable, but didn't have as much upside.  That's more of a general sense to me, not based on hard data, but I was trying to figure out in my mind why I was so much more intrigued by later WR this year, as opposed to past years when I have been more interested in hunting for lottery ticket RBs.

I'm not sure that the bolded is true though.  Looking at last year (in standard), of the top 12 RBs drafted, according to the ADP data that I have, 7 of them ended up in the top 12.  For WR, the number was 6.  There were an additional 3 RBs that ended up in the top 24 vs 2 for WR (with a 3rd being WR25).  Obviously, this is just 1 year, but I have looked at this similarly in the past and found that WR is usually slightly ahead, but the numbers are pretty close.

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I will always be a member of the draft value cult.

it will always zig when everybody zags

it will go zero RB, One RB, zero WR etc if needed because it will doesn’t chase value 

Edited by Rove!
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21 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

I agree with the overall premise, and that is part of what went into the zero RB philosophy, I think.  I think that it feels totally true to me that there is WR value all over the board, though I think that part of that for me is that it seems like so many of the WR2 and 3 on teams are young guys, who have a theoretical chance of breaking out to number 1.  In the past, I've felt like lower round receivers were more older guys who might be reliable, but didn't have as much upside.  That's more of a general sense to me, not based on hard data, but I was trying to figure out in my mind why I was so much more intrigued by later WR this year, as opposed to past years when I have been more interested in hunting for lottery ticket RBs.

I'm not sure that the bolded is true though.  Looking at last year (in standard), of the top 12 RBs drafted, according to the ADP data that I have, 7 of them ended up in the top 12.  For WR, the number was 6.  There were an additional 3 RBs that ended up in the top 24 vs 2 for WR (with a 3rd being WR25).  Obviously, this is just 1 year, but I have looked at this similarly in the past and found that WR is usually slightly ahead, but the numbers are pretty close.

He looked at like 10+ years of data and ran all the numbers. He did acknowledge last year was an outlier in regards to the success of WRs. Based on the big picture info, he felt passing would increase again in 2018 to be more on trend than it was in 2017. 

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I'm willing to try this idea. last year I went wr wr and when both wrs busted I was done for. considering going rb rb rb definitely

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I’ve tried both zero WR & zero RB mocking at least 10x ea.

 

here’s the problem with all such strategies: it’s a fixed method. Any good draft strategy requires the flexibility to change strategies on a dime if the draft doesn’t unfold in a manner that suits your predetermined method. And as a result you may miss extreme value that falls to you (or even moderate value that falls to you). 

for example, zero RB strategy...the draft unexpectedly RB-heavy. (I suspect many may be after last year) - sure, you’ve got 4 or 5 great receivers, and now you’re looking at the absolute dregs at RB, bad halves of RBBC’s, wondering how your team went so horribly awry.

...and then you may look back over your draft results scratching your head at how Alex Collins fell to you at 4.09 & you took Chris Hogan instead. Quick - go check with the Collins owner to see if he wants to do a 1:1 deal on that. I’ll wait. :whistle: 

I don’t object to going for a WR-heavy or RB-heavy or any strategy, really, I would just suggest using it as an outline rather than a thesis.  

In my draft Friday, at 1.01 I’d fully planned on going RB -> WR -> WR -> RB -> RB. Every mock i had done from 1.01 graded significantly higher this way than any other strategy I’d employed.

And when I got to the 4.12 pick and Adam Thielen had somehow slipped by teams seemingly bent on a strategy (one had the Aaron Rodgers strategy, 4 had RB strategy & one had a Drew Brees strategy) I immediately changed my plan, and had a significantly stronger team as a result.

drafting my 12-team IDP league today - after about round 5-6 when someone pops the cherry on defensive players all mocking goes out the window. My only real plan is to go offense heavy when that run on IDPers starts, and to grab 1 elite DL & one elite LB. But not at the expense of great value that falls to me on offense. In fact I may go 7-8 or even 9 rounds without taking a defensive player, which IMO gives me a 3-4 round advantage on offense. There are so many IDP values that a semi-elite or upside player can be had late. 

Anyway, I’m starting to ramble - but the point is: strategy = good. In my experience the best strategy is to be ready to change strategies per the dynamic of the draft. 

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I am diggin this. Pass me the Kool-aid!

I got a draft comin up next sunday and I am gonna give this a whirl. It's a 2 keeper league and I got 1st overall (won our league loser bracket so I got to pick my draft spot). I am keeping Zeke in the 3rd and Thielen in the 8th. The best available RB on the board is gonna be David Johnson, whom I had last year. 

The only cog I can see that makes this a little sketchy for me is that its full point PPR. I figure with 2 top 5 RBs and a decent WR later may make this work out.

 

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From the 7 hole last weekend in a 12 team PPR - Gordon, Freeman, McCoy, then WR  D Thomas, C Hogan and C Hyde in the 6th. 4 RB's and 2 WR's after 6.

WR later on J Nelson, K Cole, D Amendola, J Brown, S Sheppard ... I feel pretty good about this group

I felt so good about my team that I took a QB (R Wilson) in the 8th and I rarely take QB that early. Also went a little nuts and grabbed the Jax D in the 12th. 

TE's are D Walker and A Hooper.

 

Going early with RB's just opens up the board, IMO. With that said, that is how the draft fell for me, example, I wanted K Allen in the 2nd, he went pick before me. Wanted Baldwin in the 3rd, pick before ....  

Edited by candian fantasy guy
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