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Chris Warren III, RB (OAK) (2 Viewers)

zed2283

Footballguy
Is it time to start a thread on this guy?  I did a search and saw him pop up in a lot of threads, but didn't see one of his own.  I selected his dad with my 2nd EVER pick in fantasy football (after taking Steve Young at 1.01).  That was his breakout year and I was a genius.  Had to use my 1st pick on him the following year (and used my 2nd on Brett Favre in his breakout season, man ff was easy!).

Chris Warren III Rushing Performance for the Raiders Didn't Just Come Out of Nowhere

 
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Definitely deserves a thread, one of the most intriguing RB rookies. Rotoworld seems to be asleep at the wheel here - no blurb at all after his great week 1 performance, he drops 100 yards and a TD today and the blurb says that he probably won’t make the team and Oakland has a “stacked” backfield. Huh?

I’d be very surprised if he didn’t make the cut over either Washington or Martin. He has too much upside as a legitimate 3 down, workhorse power back. Just glad I have him on all my taxi squads - if he keeps performing and Gruden gets on board, there’s a chance they could view him as a Lynch replacement. 

 
Rather than retyping all this, I'm copying a post I made last year in the Chris Carson thread when there were comments about his yeti-like agility metrics.

If you've read my posts around the board over the years, I'm very big on a metric called Agility Score, which was developed by Shawn Siegele over at RotoViz.  Essentially, you take the 3-Cone and Short Shuttle and add them together (very complicated), and it gives a single number measure of agility from a RB.  For little RBs expected to be COP guys or third down backs primarily, this doesn't really matter that much.  Sub-200lb guys better be able to move and cut or they won't make it in the NFL.  However, when you get big dudes (220+) who can change directions on a dime, that correlates pretty highly with NFL success.

I posted some of this way back on page 5 of the Ty Montgomery thread last year, but look at Agility Scores for drafted running backs weighing 220+  from 2013-2015;
*** Note - some of the elites at the position didn't complete full workouts, so we have no data on them - Gurley, Zeke, etc.
*** Eddie Lacy (231 lbs) ran a 7.33 3-Cone which would've ranked slower than all but Jeremy Hill on the list below.  Lacy didn't run the short shuttle, so we don't have an agility score
*** A single asterisk (*) denotes pro-day numbers instead of combine numbers

2013 - Christine Michael (220 lbs) - 6.69 3-Cone; 4.02 Short Shuttle -- 10.71 Agility Score
2014 - Tyler Gaffney (220 lbs) - 6.78 3-Cone; 4.18 Short Shuttle -- 10.96 Agility Score
2013 - Le'Veon Bell (230 lbs) - 6.75 3-Cone; 4.24 Short Shuttle -- 10.99 Agility Score
2015 - Malcolm Brown (224lbs) - 6.86 3-Cone; 4.15 Short Shuttle -- 11.01 Agility Score
2015 - David Johnson (224lbs) - 6.82 3-Cone; 4.27 Short Shuttle -- 11.09 Agility Score
2014 - Lorenzo Taliaferro (229 lbs) - 6.88 3-Cone; 4.22 Short Shuttle -- 11.10 Agility Score
2015 - Jay Ajayi (221lbs) - 7.10 3-Cone; 4.10 Short Shuttle -- 11.20 Agility Score
2015 - Zach Zenner (223lbs) - 7.08 3-Cone; 4.14 Short Shuttle -- 11.22 Agility Score
2015 - Buck Allen (221lbs) - 6.96 3-Cone; 4.28 Short Shuttle -- 11.24 Agility Score
*2013 - Mike James (223 lbs) - 6.93 3-Cone; 4.34 Short Shuttle -- 11.27 Agility Score
*2015 - Matt Jones (231 lbs) - 6.84 3-Cone; 4.44 Short Shuttle -- 11.28 Agility Score
2014 - Andre Williams (230 lbs) - 7.27 3-Cone; 4.06 Short Shuttle -- 11.33 Agility Score
*2013 - Spencer Ware (228 lbs) - 7.07 3-Cone; 4.27 Short Shuttle - 11.34 Agility Score
2013 - Knile Davis (227 lbs) - 6.96 3-Cone; 4.38 Short Shuttle -- 11.34 Agility Score
2015 - TJ Yeldon (226lbs) - 7.19 3-Cone; 4.22 Short Shuttle -- 11.41 Agility Score
*2015 - David Cobb (229 lbs) - 7.01 3-Cone; 4.55 Short Shuttle -- 11.56 Agility Score
2015 - Karlos Williams (230lbs) - 7.16 3-Cone; 4.46 Short Shuttle -- 11.62 Agility Score
2014 - Alfred Blue (223 lbs) - 7.15 3-Cone; 4.50 Short Shuttle -- 11.65 Agility Score
*2014 - Terrance West (225 lbs) - 7.28 3-Cone; 4.44 Short Shuttle -- 11.72 Agility Score
*2014 - Jeremy Hill (233lbs) - 7.64 3-Cone; 4.59 Short Shuttle -- 12.23 Agility Score

Carson's Agility Score was 11.81, worse than everyone but Jeremy Hill on this list (thus the Yeti comments).  And he did this at 218lbs, below the 220+ threshold set for this list.  His 3-Cone of 7.53 would've ranked slower than everyone but Jeremy Hill (even Lacy bested that by 2 tenths of a second).  His Short Shuttle of 4.28 was middle of the pack, but still was beat by 11 of the 20 we have here.  Carson is an explosive athlete given his very good vertical and broad jumps, and he's not terribly slow with a 4.58 40 (though that's not blazing).

Mixon didn't have a best-in-class agility score for this list either (11.37) but he did so at 228 lbs and still far outpaced Carson.  

When the metrics align with the film, I feel pretty confident in saying that I'll be surprised in the long run if Carson ends up a multiyear RB2+.  He may very well hold the job this year, and even next year, but guys like him tend to eventually get replaced.

ETA - obviously being a good athlete doesn't guarantee NFL success, but being a bad athlete generally leads to an NFL team trying to upgrade.
For the record, Warren had one of the more impressive agility scores (when considering weight).  He ran at 6.98 3-cone at the Scouting Combine, which was 7th best overall this year.  He combined that with a 4.18 Short Shuttle, good for a 11.16 agility score ... at 247 lbs.  That's pretty incredible, and more importantly, he landed with a team that wants to use a hammer RB to pound defenses into submission.  Warren was a highly regarded recruit out of HS, and like a few other guys in Austin, got caught up in the mess of the Charlie Strong era.  He was hurt and missed the year that D'Onta Foreman ran his way into the third round, and then last season Tom Herman wanted a different type of RB and moved Warren to H-back/TE.

Lynch will be Gruden's guy, primarily, but Lynch is 32 years old.  The cliff comes fast for those guys, sometimes, and often without warning.  Warren at 247 lbs is in the Beast Mode mold, while Richard at sub-210 is the COP guy.  People will talk about Doug Martin being the Lynch handcuff, but I don't see it.  Martin hasn't been good since he got off the roids, and he's 29 himself.  

I'd be very surprised if Warren isn't on this team and playing behind Lynch.  And for dynasty guys, I'd be floored if he cleared waivers, if the Raiders were bold enough to try to ship him to the practice squad.  

 
Thanks for the info guys. Just drafted him at 5.15 (pick 79) in my rookie draft. Worth a shot at that price.

 
Warren has looked fantastic, but a few caveats:

- He's doing it against backups

- Gruden said emphatically after last weekend's performance that he needs to get way better without the ball

- Gruden benched all his key offensive players vs the Rams because they also play them in wk 1 of the reg season. Two guys who were benched: Doug Martin and Deandre Washington

 
JFS171 said:
Rather than retyping all this, I'm copying a post I made last year in the Chris Carson thread when there were comments about his yeti-like agility metrics.

For the record, Warren had one of the more impressive agility scores (when considering weight).  He ran at 6.98 3-cone at the Scouting Combine, which was 7th best overall this year.  He combined that with a 4.18 Short Shuttle, good for a 11.16 agility score ... at 247 lbs.  That's pretty incredible, and more importantly, he landed with a team that wants to use a hammer RB to pound defenses into submission.  Warren was a highly regarded recruit out of HS, and like a few other guys in Austin, got caught up in the mess of the Charlie Strong era.  He was hurt and missed the year that D'Onta Foreman ran his way into the third round, and then last season Tom Herman wanted a different type of RB and moved Warren to H-back/TE.

Lynch will be Gruden's guy, primarily, but Lynch is 32 years old.  The cliff comes fast for those guys, sometimes, and often without warning.  Warren at 247 lbs is in the Beast Mode mold, while Richard at sub-210 is the COP guy.  People will talk about Doug Martin being the Lynch handcuff, but I don't see it.  Martin hasn't been good since he got off the roids, and he's 29 himself.  

I'd be very surprised if Warren isn't on this team and playing behind Lynch.  And for dynasty guys, I'd be floored if he cleared waivers, if the Raiders were bold enough to try to ship him to the practice squad.  
Well said all around by @JFS171, but I wanted to add a few observations I had of him of his collegiate career that I posted awhile back in the Oakland Raiders thread.

This guy flashed some massive play making ability early in his career, with a 250+ yard game against Texas Tech near the end of his freshman year (2015 season), and he followed up with another 100+ yard performance (although it was relatively innefficient) to end the season. With UT's quagmire at the QB position (truly dreadful since Colt McCoy), the buzz around Austin was this kid was going to be the focal point of the offense by the end of the 2016 season, or at the very least find himself on the better side of a timeshare with Foreman. He just looked that explosive during those two games in 2015. 

Injuries, and the upsurge of D'Onta Foreman's consistency in 2016, really ruined this guy's career though. He opened 2016 on the lesser end of a timeshare with Foreman, but he did go over 100 yards twice in his four game junior season. A season ending knee injury knocked him out the rest of 2016 though, and he just didn't look the same in 2017. Only one 100+ yard game, and he didn't exhibit the same level of burst or power during any of the other games. A concussion, and lingering soft tissue injuries throughout the year, were the likely culprits, and a concern (at least the soft tissue injuries) going forward for his pro career.

Still, after looking at his stats, I was surprised by his lack of production in the passing game, as it seemed like he was allllllways on the field in third and go situations. Despite the lack of receptions, he has pretty good hands and was always a reliable safety valve in those third down situations. As the article states though, he's a tremendous pass blocker, and I think if he makes it to the 53 man roster he should prove to be a pretty viable FB option for us.
If he's finally healthy, I think he stands a fighting chance to make the roster and provide a real benefit for the team.

 
I hope the Raiders keep this guy.  Lynch really needs a back up and there are no other hammers on the roster.  Not sure how it ends up but Washington or Richard is gone unless Martin looks really bad these days.   

 
Ok so I have an issue here. He’s not in the FA pool on ESPN, and it’s my pick in our dynasty’s slow draft. Do you think it’s appropriate to draft “the rights” to him?

 
Ok so I have an issue here. He’s not in the FA pool on ESPN, and it’s my pick in our dynasty’s slow draft. Do you think it’s appropriate to draft “the rights” to him?
Yes...just draft some obscure player and post a message that it is for him once he Is added

 
First Madden game I ever owned was Madden 96. Must've been playing as the Seahawks because on one of the first plays I gave the ball to Chris Warren and he housed it from about 70 yards out.

Said it elsewhere, but the younger Warren looks like Michael Bush to me. Big frame. Reasonably mobile, but more of a banger than a juker. I think he will stick in the league for a while.

Lynch is old with a lot of miles and Martin is a fraction of what he used to be. I think there's some sneaky potential here if your expectations are reasonable. I don't see him pulling a Kareem Hunt, but he can maybe have some value, especially as a flyer in something like best ball leagues or the FBG contest. He's more appealing as a dynasty stash and eventual sell high candidate if/when he strings together a few good games and people start going overboard with the hype.

 
He has to be better than Doug Martin.
All reports from camp on Martin is that he's looked fantastic so far. Will be interesting to see if/how long/how well he plays in the Game 3 dress rehearsal. Given what Warren has shown so far, it's feasible he could do as well as Martin situationally, as he has a similar hard-nosed style, but I don't think that's the likeliest outcome.

I've made this point elsewhere, but I am guessing the Raiders keep Richard (who has always looked just slightly better/ more dynamic than Washington), and drop Washington, keeping Lynch/Martin as the main rotation this year with Richard picking up COP/passing downs, and retain Warren to be the main bell-cow next year and on.

Warren/Richard (assuming Richard maintains his skills) would be a good thunder/lightning Wheatley/Garner type of duo, and my money is on Gruden trying to groom that so it can start next year.

In the meantime, Warren will get a lot of reps in preseason to see all aspects of his game, and see some reps in the season to evaluate him against starters and potentially in situational roles (such as replacing Lynch in goal-line/short yardage if Lynch is gassed/takes himself out).

 
First Madden game I ever owned was Madden 96. Must've been playing as the Seahawks because on one of the first plays I gave the ball to Chris Warren and he housed it from about 70 yards out.

Said it elsewhere, but the younger Warren looks like Michael Bush to me. Big frame. Reasonably mobile, but more of a banger than a juker. I think he will stick in the league for a while.

Lynch is old with a lot of miles and Martin is a fraction of what he used to be. I think there's some sneaky potential here if your expectations are reasonable. I don't see him pulling a Kareem Hunt, but he can maybe have some value, especially as a flyer in something like best ball leagues or the FBG contest. He's more appealing as a dynasty stash and eventual sell high candidate if/when he strings together a few good games and people start going overboard with the hype.
EBF, care to chime in on my question a few posts up?

 
Said it elsewhere, but the younger Warren looks like Michael Bush to me. Big frame. Reasonably mobile, but more of a banger than a juker. I think he will stick in the league for a while.
Solid comp. Miss Bush and the way he completely destroyed the Chargers in one game filling in for McFadden. Had something like 250 yards from scrimmage that day. 

 
EBF, care to chime in on my question a few posts up?
I don't know what to tell you. Pretty big oversight by ESPN. Best thing you could probably do would be to e-mail someone, but those things can die on the vine if you don't find the right address. I guess if enough people are complaining about it then they'll add him soon.

You could try adding him, but I'm not sure a bunch of randos are going to honor that type of deal. It would seem non-binding in a public league and I wouldn't be surprised to see someone else just grab him anyway, though you'd hope they'd have the decency not to.

 
Where would you guys feel comfortable drafting Warren in rookie drafts? I have a bunch of 3rd and 4th round rookie drafts going off this weekend so I was curious as to where to draft him if at all? Is the 4th round too early still? 12 team PPR leagues with 22 player roster limits. I am very excited about this kid but don't know if I should temper my enthusiasm or try and pick him up in a bunch of leagues possibly in the 4th round. EBF you're easily one of my favorite posters so I really would love to get your opinion on this. Thanks in advance guys!!

 
Where would you guys feel comfortable drafting Warren in rookie drafts? I have a bunch of 3rd and 4th round rookie drafts going off this weekend so I was curious as to where to draft him if at all? Is the 4th round too early still? 12 team PPR leagues with 22 player roster limits. I am very excited about this kid but don't know if I should temper my enthusiasm or try and pick him up in a bunch of leagues possibly in the 4th round. EBF you're easily one of my favorite posters so I really would love to get your opinion on this. Thanks in advance guys!!
Just  finished 3 rookie drafts (16 team with IDP). I took him at 5.15 in one draft and he went undated in the other 2. This is with 43 man rosters. 

 
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Just  finished 3 rookie drafts (16 team with IDP). I took him at 5.15 in one draft and he went undated in the other 2. This is with 43 man rosters. 
Interesting. Kind of surprised with that many roster spots that he went undrafted but I bet he gets snagged off of waivers sooner than later. 

 
Where would you guys feel comfortable drafting Warren in rookie drafts? I have a bunch of 3rd and 4th round rookie drafts going off this weekend so I was curious as to where to draft him if at all? Is the 4th round too early still? 12 team PPR leagues with 22 player roster limits. I am very excited about this kid but don't know if I should temper my enthusiasm or try and pick him up in a bunch of leagues possibly in the 4th round. EBF you're easily one of my favorite posters so I really would love to get your opinion on this. Thanks in advance guys!!
I was hoping he would fall to me in the 3rd, but he went before my pick

 
Where would you guys feel comfortable drafting Warren in rookie drafts? I have a bunch of 3rd and 4th round rookie drafts going off this weekend so I was curious as to where to draft him if at all? Is the 4th round too early still? 12 team PPR leagues with 22 player roster limits. I am very excited about this kid but don't know if I should temper my enthusiasm or try and pick him up in a bunch of leagues possibly in the 4th round. EBF you're easily one of my favorite posters so I really would love to get your opinion on this. Thanks in advance guys!!


Just  finished 3 rookie drafts (16 team with IDP). I took him at 5.15 in one draft and he went undated in the other 2. This is with 43 man rosters. 


Interesting. Kind of surprised with that many roster spots that he went undrafted but I bet he gets snagged off of waivers sooner than later. 
Very different beasts.  16 man IDP you can easily multiply the pick by 1.5-1.8 for later guys. The 48th offensive player in my 12 man league was drafted at 7.02 and in my 16's there were 5.13, 5.09, and 5.04.  I don't know how many rounds his drafts are but mine are all 8 rounds (40ish regular roster plus another 13ish taxi) and no shot he's undrafted in them today.

Sorting by ADP of my drafts the offensive-only players from 37-48 go:
Deon Cain  
Daurice Fountain  
John Kelly  
Jordan Akins  
Mason Rudolph  
Bo Scarbrough  
Justin Jackson  
Kyle Lauletta   
Dalton Schultz  
Jordan Lasley  
Mark Walton  
Jordan Wilkins

I would put Warren right in that territory.  So yes, in a non-IDP league I wouldn't hesitate to take him in the 4th.  He's also the kind of player that a contender would overpay for in week 8 when his starter of Marshawn Lynch goes down and he's looking at starting Jacquizz Rogers.

 
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It is interesting because a lot of people think there is a decent chance he doesn't even make the final 53 man roster but yet some have him being the next beast mode and starting for the Raiders at some point in 2018 and their future bell cow starting in 2019. So I guess it's just who you believe and the fact that no one has a crystal ball and really knows what will happen with him. Thanks for the replies guys!!

 
I'm in 16 Rookie/Veteran 3rd and 4th round Dynasty drafts and so far (keep in mind that a lot of these things have only a pick or 2 made so far if any) Warren has been drafted 3.02, 3.03, 3.05 and 3.07. Will update as the draft roll on but gives you an idea where he is currently going. Another solid game last night too. This kid looks pretty damn good!!

 
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Where would you guys feel comfortable drafting Warren in rookie drafts? I have a bunch of 3rd and 4th round rookie drafts going off this weekend so I was curious as to where to draft him if at all? Is the 4th round too early still? 12 team PPR leagues with 22 player roster limits. I am very excited about this kid but don't know if I should temper my enthusiasm or try and pick him up in a bunch of leagues possibly in the 4th round. EBF you're easily one of my favorite posters so I really would love to get your opinion on this. Thanks in advance guys!!
Somewhere in the 3rd round sounds about right. At that point everyone is basically a flyer anyway.

I'm not a big Raider fan and definitely don't follow the team closely, but I've been watching the preseason and he's been relatively impressive. I've compared him to Michael Bush and I think that's about right. He's not going to be some Pro Bowl freak who demands a starting job. However, he's potentially good enough to work his way into a committee and have some relevant seasons as a committee back. As long as your expectations are realistic, he can be a good pick for you. I think he's more valuable in big, mandatory 2 RB formats where you need a lot of bodies at the position. I think his value drops a lot in 1 RB PPR/flex leagues where you don't have the same demand for RB depth, because his ceiling probably isn't sky high.

I think he has shown too much to be cut now, but I guess sometimes things can surprise you.

 
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It is interesting because a lot of people think there is a decent chance he doesn't even make the final 53 man roster but yet some have him being the next beast mode and starting for the Raiders at some point in 2018 and their future bell cow starting in 2019. So I guess it's just who you believe and the fact that no one has a crystal ball and really knows what will happen with him. Thanks for the replies guys!!
Welcome to the preseason.

 
Perfect taxi squad guy if you have that in your league. Unlikely he does anything this year, but not impossible given the depth chart...and things could really open up for him next year. True 3 down workhorse traits, which aren't especially common and a much higher ceiling than some of the average RBs who were actually drafted. 

 
Claimed off waivers in 3 out of 5 of my leagues.  The other 2 haven't processed yet and will in a week (FFPC), I expect him to be claimed there as well.  

 
Where would you guys feel comfortable drafting Warren in rookie drafts? I have a bunch of 3rd and 4th round rookie drafts going off this weekend so I was curious as to where to draft him if at all? Is the 4th round too early still? 12 team PPR leagues with 22 player roster limits. I am very excited about this kid but don't know if I should temper my enthusiasm or try and pick him up in a bunch of leagues possibly in the 4th round. EBF you're easily one of my favorite posters so I really would love to get your opinion on this. Thanks in advance guys!!
Took him in the 3rd round in the 12 team idp dynasty I play in.  Big roster 22 reserve w/ 7 practice.  Lot of other owners responded w/ 'he won't even make the team'.  He might have fell to 4th but I didn't want to chance it.  

 
I got him at 9.12 in a 16-team contract league (where there were ~140 guys kept from last year).  So really the 280th player either kept or selected.

 
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Is this guy even on the radar in 10/12-team shallow-roster redrafts?
no.  He's a big strong guy with unnatural choppy running.  Might end up a role player or something.  Zero potential to be a major part of a running game.

This is 2018, not 1960.  

 
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He's on my radar for later in the season. Let's see how cut-downs go. Doug Martin looks washed. Marshawn is 32. Raiders have one of the best OLs in football and aren't getting nearly enough love coming into this season. People are acting like Jack Del Rio is still the coach. Yes Gruden is going to smashmouth. Not because he's a dinosaur. Quite the opposite. Because he realizes that NFL defenses are now built to stop the pass with small quick LBs. Marshawn and Warren (if he makes the team) could be a nasty combo to go along with Carr/Cooper/Nelson/Bryant.

Ear to the ground. Hand on the wire.

 
I think it's a year early.  And I mean a year early on the discussion, let alone the hype.  
My thoughts exactly.  Warren can run the ball and could gain yards as a RB in the NFL.  But, there is more to just running the ball as a NFL RB.  And, Gruden has been very clear that Warren is not ready to be a RB in the NFL. 

That being said, if Warren makes the team, the Raiders may have to put him on the field if Lynch is injured and Martin fails. 

 
I think it's a year early.  And I mean a year early on the discussion, let alone the hype.  
The reason I’m excited is because it’s just such a plausible route to stardom. He’s behind an aging starter with a lot of miles and another running back who has been very inconsistent and hasn’t lived up to the hype. Enter an undrafted rookie who had a phenomenal preseason...it’s just the perfect set up.

 
The reason I’m excited is because it’s just such a plausible route to stardom. He’s behind an aging starter with a lot of miles and another running back who has been very inconsistent and hasn’t lived up to the hype. Enter an undrafted rookie who had a phenomenal preseason...it’s just the perfect set up.
Jalen Richard and De Andre Washington are still there as well, for now - I'm not sure you can just count them out.

 
If I was in a deep dynasty league, with a 6 man taxi, and had Marshawn, I would own him.  

The reports on Doug Martin in practice have been good.  I know, I know.  Everyone hates him.  And he hasn't done anything in preseason games.  But I believe he is the #2.  

With the two vets, Warren got a lot of run in the preseason, and looked good.  THEN AGAIN, you can find summer excitement for Elijah Hood last year.  

I agree with above statement about Marshawn aging, but I was shocked he looked so good last year (check his 2nd half of season).  He MIGHT be a Frank Gore freak.

Also, not for nothing, PFF has Raiders with 2nd best rushing sched this year.  

One guy might say, Warren is a stud, and one guy might say, Raiders line can block really well, I might need to get some Marshawn on my team.  

 
I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that Warren gets cut, and moved to PS.  

Raider Nation seems to think Washington gets cut, and Warren makes it.  
I can see that as Washington and Richard are a bit superfluous and they may not want to risk losing Warren exposing him to waivers if they try and move him to PS.

 
I don't think it's out of realm of possibility that Warren gets cut, and moved to PS.  

Raider Nation seems to think Washington gets cut, and Warren makes it.  
Well Washington had a knee scope and has missed multiple practices, which has probably put Warren ahead of him in terms of bubble 

 
Well Washington had a knee scope and has missed multiple practices, which has probably put Warren ahead of him in terms of bubble 
That's what people think.  Whatever it's worth.

There's also roster restraints.  If they only want to carry 3 tailbacks, it's tough.  

 

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