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Batman30

Keeper strategy question

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I had a general keeper question that I am hoping people can give their thoughts on.  I don’t want to make it about specific players just a general discussion.

 

If you are allowed to keep one player at their draft slot from last year what is your strategy?

 

1. Keep the best overall player below their ADP?  Example, player is 20th overall in the format and you can keep at pick 39.

 

2. Keep the player with the most extra value? Example, player is 60th overall but can be kept for pick 145.

 

I am new to the keeper format so I am trying to get a feel for the best strategy. Thanks for all the input.

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Keepers depend so greatly on league and team situation. If I had to generalize, I'd say I'd rather have a top 20 player from pick 39 than have a player around pick 60 at 140 value. Lots of studs are often kept so it's good to stock up on great players if you can.

Also, just because a player costs you a 1st doesn't mean they're not a value. If you're drafting at the end of the 1st and you can keep Gurley or Bell for a 1st, that's a steal. I'd rather have that than many later keepers. 

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Value, but I’d recommend using a pick calculator to help you gauge value.  Keeping Dion Lewis, a 6th round pick for a 20th round pick sounds like great value. But really it’s only worth a little less than a 6th round pick.  Meanwhile keeping David Johnson, a first round pick for a late second is worth a lot more since it would probably cost a 3rd to move up from the 2nd and draft him.

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17 minutes ago, oldmanhawkins said:

Value, but I’d recommend using a pick calculator to help you gauge value.  Keeping Dion Lewis, a 6th round pick for a 20th round pick sounds like great value. But really it’s only worth a little less than a 6th round pick.  Meanwhile keeping David Johnson, a first round pick for a late second is worth a lot more since it would probably cost a 3rd to move up from the 2nd and draft him.

Does position value come into play here?

For example, an Ertz for a 6th is the better play than an Alex Collins for a 12 simply because of the scarcity of good TEs, right?

:unsure:

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2 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Does position value come into play here?

For example, an Ertz for a 6th is the better play than an Alex Collins for a 12 simply because of the scarcity of good TEs, right?

:unsure:

I’d tend to assume any positional value would be baked into ADP unless you had some unusual league scoring.

It would be wise to try to guess who others will keep and use that to help decide.  If everyone is keeping top tier RBs that will change the way the draft unfolds and can change the value of Collins 

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The players I am debating keeping are CMC at a late 3rd or JuJu in round 15 in PPR.

Based on this discussion I am leaning towards CMC.

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You have to remember that you're not really keeping that ADP 20 guy at a 39th-pick cost. If every team gets to keep 1 player it's more like a 51st-pick cost, because 12 guys who would normally get drafted before pick 39 won't be on the board. That makes keeping the stud look a lot more attractive.

Also, in general, the shallower the league (# of teams and # of lineup spots), the more it makes sense to keep studs, even at a lower incremental value. Keeping an 8th-round ADP guy at a 20th-round pick can actually hurt your team if that 8th-rounder is a borderline flex for lineup purposes, because having spent a keeper on him you'll feel obligated to play him even when he may not be the best bet.

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
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10 minutes ago, Batman30 said:

Oldmanhawkins,  thanks for the help. That makes sense.  I didn’t think to use the calculator.

Did you find a calculator? 

Searching Google all I found were trade calcs

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2 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Did you find a calculator? 

Searching Google all I found were trade calcs

The best one I know of comes from FBG's own David Dodds:

http://footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm

ETA: It's technically a trade calculator, but just plug in the ADP on one side and the keeper pick on the other, and it will give you the respective Dodds value of each pick and the incremental value.

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant
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16 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

You have to remember that you're not really keeping that ADP 20 guy at a 39th-pick cost. If every team gets to keep 1 player it's more like a 51st-pick cost, because 12 guys who would normally get drafted before pick 39 won't be on the board. That makes keeping the stud look a lot more attractive.

Also, in general, the shallower the league (# of teams and # of lineup spots), the more it makes sense to keep studs, even at a lower incremental value. Keeping an 8th-round ADP guy at a 20th-round pick can actually hurt your team if that 8th-rounder is a borderline flex for lineup purposes, because having spent a keeper on him you'll feel obligated to play him even when he may not be the best bet.

This is where the draft dominator app becomes really valuable.  I can plug in all the projected keepers and see, for example that Alex Collins will be a third round pick in my league. That is valuable info and hard to estimate yourself.

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29 minutes ago, Batman30 said:

The players I am debating keeping are CMC at a late 3rd or JuJu in round 15 in PPR.

Based on this discussion I am leaning towards CMC.

think you have to anticipate that most teams will keep an RB1 with 1st or 2nd Round value (outside of Hunt and Kamara who were probably drafted later in 17) so you must keep CMC for a 3rd to maintain value.... in RD 1 and 2 you could grab 2 quality players to go with CMC...and JuJu later. 

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1 hour ago, Batman30 said:

I had a general keeper question that I am hoping people can give their thoughts on.  I don’t want to make it about specific players just a general discussion.

If you are allowed to keep one player at their draft slot from last year what is your strategy?

1. Keep the best overall player below their ADP?  Example, player is 20th overall in the format and you can keep at pick 39.

2. Keep the player with the most extra value? Example, player is 60th overall but can be kept for pick 145.

I am new to the keeper format so I am trying to get a feel for the best strategy. Thanks for all the input.

For me, it's kind of a combination of both.

First I look at if the player is a starter.  If yes, then am I getting him at a value (i.e. keeping him later than his ADP)?  If yes, he's going to be kept. If not, then I'm not keeping him.

If he's not a starter, then it would have to be extreme value and kept at a pick in which I would likely not find a starter, likely round 10 or later.

If I'm choosing between a starter and non-starter, then the starter wins out except in extreme cases where a backup could become a stud for a throwaway pick (i.e. James Conner in the 15th).

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1 minute ago, Wu-banger said:

think you have to anticipate that most teams will keep an RB1 with 1st or 2nd Round value (outside of Hunt and Kamara who were probably drafted later in 17) so you must keep CMC for a 3rd to maintain value.... in RD 1 and 2 you could grab 2 quality players to go with CMC...and JuJu later. 

Do you get to re-keep the player next year?  If so, Juju might have more value than you are crediting him with.

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1 minute ago, oldmanhawkins said:

Do you get to re-keep the player next year?  If so, Juju might have more value than you are crediting him with.

I'm not OP .... but in my post , later would mean 4th or 5th 

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56 minutes ago, Batman30 said:

The players I am debating keeping are CMC at a late 3rd or JuJu in round 15 in PPR.

Based on this discussion I am leaning towards CMC.

According to the DD app w/ my league settings CMC is 18th and Juju is 37th.  So w/ those rankings I'd keep Juju but you'd have to look at how they rank for you.

I'm in a similar boat where I can keep Tyreek (DD rank 28) for a 5th, or Engram (DD rank 64) for a 15th, and based on the Dodds calc, keeping Engram is the way to go.

Obviously that's oversimplifying things, but it's another data point.  In my case, I'm leaning toward keeping Tyreek just because I like the idea of having a potential WR1 locked up in the 5th more that I like the idea of being able to completely ignore the TE position in the draft.

Edited by billmatic

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14 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

Keep the best player that is also the hardest to replace in the draft.

 

/thread

That’s an extreme oversimplification, and a mistake that I see my league mates make every year.  Kareem Hunt gets kept for 1.07.  He would not have been drafted before 1.07, and might have fallen to the second.  Meanwhile Agholor could have been kept 6 or 7 rounds below ADP. 

ETA: looks like I only read half your sentence.  “Hardest to replace” is a bit vague. Having a strategy to define value is very helpful.

Edited by oldmanhawkins

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Just now, oldmanhawkins said:

That’s an extreme oversimplification, and a mistake that I see my league mates make every year.  Kareem Hunt gets kept for 1.07.  He would not have been drafted before 1.07, and might have fallen to the second.  Meanwhile Agholor could have been kept 6 or 7 rounds below ADP.  

Or you're overthinking & over-complicating it? ;)

Are you really gonna keep an Agholor over a Hunt? Hell no.

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6 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

Or you're overthinking & over-complicating it? ;)

Are you really gonna keep an Agholor over a Hunt? Hell no.

He should have.  Picks 1-6 will go Bell, Gurley, zeke, Brown, Hopkins, Barkley in some order.  None of those can be kept in this league. You wouldn’t prefer those guys to Hunt?  His mistake was not considering what the draft would look like before making his decision.  Last year someone kept Mike Evans for 1.10 with the same thought process.  If you can draft that player, or a player of similar value at that spot, what value are you gaining by keeping them?

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3 minutes ago, oldmanhawkins said:

He should have.  Picks 1-6 will go Bell, Gurley, zeke, Brown, Hopkins, Barkley in some order.  None of those can be kept in this league. You wouldn’t prefer those guys to Hunt?  His mistake was not considering what the draft would look like before making his decision.  Last year someone kept Mike Evans for 1.10 with the same thought process.  If you can draft that player, or a player of similar value at that spot, what value are you gaining by keeping them?

WHat kind of league won't let you keep them?

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Keeper decisions have many factors.  For leagues with very little in terms of keepers like your example of only one keeper I typically treat like a redraft in terms of player value.  Where if you can keep many players (5+) then longevity and keeper value starts to play a little more into it.  Another big factor is if you can keep a player for multiple years vs just one and done.  That significantly affects how I perceive the value of a potential keeper. 

 

As a few have stated above, you also need to factor in the likelihood of getting a similar or better player in the draft spot you must use to keep the player in question.  The easiest example if keeping Gurley at a 1st round cost when you have pick 1.12 vs keeping him if you have pick 1.01.  If you can likely get that stud (or equivalent) back due to your pick location then the value of the later keeper rises because you essentially get to "keep" both players. 

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1 minute ago, NeverEnough said:

WHat kind of league won't let you keep them?

We use a two round advance each year.  Hunt was taken in the 3rd and costs a first. Most of those other guys were first rounders last year.  My point was that simply scanning your roster and picking off the best players is a lazy approach, and it’s good to have a way to compare values.  Draft pick calculators work well.  The draft dominator works best. 

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2 minutes ago, Gally said:

Keeper decisions have many factors.  For leagues with very little in terms of keepers like your example of only one keeper I typically treat like a redraft in terms of player value.  Where if you can keep many players (5+) then longevity and keeper value starts to play a little more into it.  Another big factor is if you can keep a player for multiple years vs just one and done.  That significantly affects how I perceive the value of a potential keeper. 

 

As a few have stated above, you also need to factor in the likelihood of getting a similar or better player in the draft spot you must use to keep the player in question.  The easiest example if keeping Gurley at a 1st round cost when you have pick 1.12 vs keeping him if you have pick 1.01.  If you can likely get that stud (or equivalent) back due to your pick location then the value of the later keeper rises because you essentially get to "keep" both players. 

Factoring in longevity is very tricky.  I’ll post more on my personal approach to this later on to see what others think.

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33 minutes ago, NeverEnough said:

Keep the best player that is also the hardest to replace in the draft.

 

/thread

 

24 minutes ago, oldmanhawkins said:

That’s an extreme oversimplification, and a mistake that I see my league mates make every year.  Kareem Hunt gets kept for 1.07.  He would not have been drafted before 1.07, and might have fallen to the second.  Meanwhile Agholor could have been kept 6 or 7 rounds below ADP. 

ETA: looks like I only read half your sentence.  “Hardest to replace” is a bit vague. Having a strategy to define value is very helpful.

I tend to agree with neverenough.

I had planned to keep Ertz for a 6 instead of Collins for a 12 because there are only a few TE that are pencil in starters every week, plus I can ignore the position on draft night.  Collins is being drafted as a RB2, they are alot easier to find. 

Noone drafted in rds 1-3 can be kept by the way

What am I missing?

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good sneaky AC thread.

I don't know if it can be answered in a vacuum.  I think I would have to map out the draft strategy and figure out which guy I could get the closest facsimile to at that draft position in the current year and keep the other guy.

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Just now, oldmanhawkins said:

Factoring in longevity is very tricky.  I’ll post more on my personal approach to this later on to see what others think.

I only look at longevity in about 2 yr increments.  Any longer and too many things change.  The point is to win and not perpetually be playing for the future. 

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After running several mocks I think it’s better to keep your stud players at a good price. When you factor in all the other keepers already removed from the draft pool a 3rd or 4th round pick is not as valuable.

 

The value play is to keep a good player in one of the later rounds but then you don’t end up with enough studs.

 

Good discussion on how different people approach it though.

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1 hour ago, Gally said:

I only look at longevity in about 2 yr increments.  Any longer and too many things change.  The point is to win and not perpetually be playing for the future. 

That's an understandable philosophy, but in more active keeper leagues, it's not very common to hold a player for his entire career. And even if longevity doesn't mean much to you, several of your league-mates probably overestimate its importance - which increases trade value.

To use one example: in a (non-PPR) league in which you can keep 5 players forever at their original draft spot, I fell ###-backwards into Alvin Kamara in the 11th round last year. Personally, I think he's due for significant regression and wouldn't take him as a 1st-rounder in a redraft. But based on conversation around the draft table last week, he's probably got the highest keeper value of any player in our league right now ... because he's 23, and all the other owners can envision is "5 more years of David Johnson-level production".

Edited by Mr. Irrelevant

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4 hours ago, Batman30 said:

The players I am debating keeping are CMC at a late 3rd or JuJu in round 15 in PPR.

One way to think about it is to ask: who will be the best player available in rd3, and who will be the BPA in rd15? Maybe, based on your rankings and the other keepers, you guess that the BPA in rd3 will be Jay Ajayi and the BPA in rd15 will be Christian Kirk. Now you can think of it like a trade question. Would you rather have:

A: CMC & Kirk
B: JuJu & Ajayi

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2 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

good sneaky AC thread.

I don't know if it can be answered in a vacuum.  I think I would have to map out the draft strategy and figure out which guy I could get the closest facsimile to at that draft position in the current year and keep the other guy.

I disagree that it’s sneaky AC. He’s asking more of a strategy question, and eventually pares it down as “I’m considering these guys” but I think there’s a lot to consider. Sometimes you have an escalating pick cost, sometimes it’s simple “keep 1-2”, sometimes it’s simple base pick cost. That would change how I valued guys, but there are some points upthread that make sense as well. I also think you’re right that it would vary league to league and even in league vary year to year, value dependent on who’s kept. 

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2 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

That's an understandable philosophy, but in more active keeper leagues, it's not very common to hold a player for his entire career. And even if longevity doesn't mean much to you, several of your league-mates probably overestimate its importance - which increases trade value.

To use one example: in a (non-PPR) league in which you can keep 5 players forever at their original draft spot, I fell ###-backwards into Alvin Kamara in the 11th round last year. Personally, I think he's due for significant regression and wouldn't take him as a 1st-rounder in a redraft. But based on conversation around the draft table last week, he's probably got the highest keeper value of any player in our league right now ... because he's 23, and all the other owners can envision is "5 more years of David Johnson-level production".

I completely agree with this approach.  Knowing how other owners in your league handle evaluations and value based on longevity is a key piece of info for trading capital.  My comment was meant for how I evaluate players to target in the draft and in trades.  Including how I think someone will do 5 years from now doesn't hold a lot of weight in my evaluation but I do consider that when approaching trades and dealings with other teams. 

 

This also helps acquire older players for virtually nothing because many other owners are after the young guy that will be a stud for the next 5 years.  Players like Larry Fitz were able to get acquired for virtually nothing the last couple years in my dynasty league and he has been a major contributor in the lineup. 

Edited by Gally

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I look at the expected production of player 1 minus the expected production of the draft pick expended vs. the expected production of player 2 minus the expected production of the draft pick expended. If the draft pick cost for a keeper is outside the 10th round, I use expected production of a replacement player (RB36 or WR36) instead of the expected production of the draft pick.

 

For example, Hunt as a keeper in the 3rd vs JuJu as a keeper in the 15th.

Hunt was 8.8 ppg above replacement last season, and with some regression and losing short yardage carries to Ware, let's estimate he's 6ppg above replacement this year. A mid 3rd round pick yields 3ppg above replacement (as it did last season), so Hunt nets 3ppg above replacement.

Last season, JuJu scored 1.7 ppg above replacement, and his production was suppressed by being a rookie, missing a pair of games, and Martavis' drawing away some targets. Maybe we expect him to progress, and maybe score 3 ppg above replacement this season. As a 15th rounder, the cost is negligible, so JuJu nets 3ppg above replacement.

If Hunt had higher expected net ppg above replacement, I'd take Hunt, but in this case, I'd rather have 11 players (Juju + 10 picks) in the first 10 rounds than 10 players (Hunt +9 draft picks) in the first 10 rounds.

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

I disagree that it’s sneaky AC. He’s asking more of a strategy question, and eventually pares it down as “I’m considering these guys” but I think there’s a lot to consider. Sometimes you have an escalating pick cost, sometimes it’s simple “keep 1-2”, sometimes it’s simple base pick cost. That would change how I valued guys, but there are some points upthread that make sense as well. I also think you’re right that it would vary league to league and even in league vary year to year, value dependent on who’s kept. 

Sorry, was meant to be a little tongue in cheek.

off the top of my head, I was thinking that juju in the 15th is less replaceable than Cmac in the 3rd, though the more I think about in dynasty philosophically, I would lean more toward the real stud because it’s also like can I get this guy 3 or 4 times in that round, so if you have someone really in the upper tier, they probably should get more weight than someone in a middle tier.  Though I guess you would still look at that year’s draft first.

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Totally agree on kamara being one of the highest value players in this respect.  He was one of the examples I was the boing of when you imagine what you can get at that same round.

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