Snorkelson

FanDuel week 1

96 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Howdy - sorry that I kinda bailed on MLB, but, I was starting to get weary. Football's more my thing, so, here it goes .........

GPP's - I'm building a lot of L/U's based on a RB/DEF stack of either A. Collins & BAL or Fournette & JAX. I expect both to be popular, but, plenty of ways to go contrarian in other positions. Cleveland weather not withstanding, I think those are the two best RB/DEF stacks. Having said that, a Carlos Hyde/CLEV stack wouldn't be out of line, IMO. 

If you're only playing the Sunday main, Bortles isn't a terrible choice [stacked with Cole or Westbrook], but, not sure how that game will play out. Jacksonville's DEF is good, but, the NYG have upgraded greatly at RB and seem to be healthier at the other skill positions. Their OL could be the problem and if they can't move the ball and get behind, no need for Bortles to throw the ball much. It will be wet there but wind forecast is only 10-12 mph. I did like Tyrod early, but, the weather is shying me away from the Browns passing game [in fact, either passing offense in that game] at this point. Rain is one thing, 20-40 mph wind is another. 

Liking Cinncy's pass game a lot and as another contrarian play, TB [yes, with Ryan Fitzpatrick] having to come from behind against NO. A TB stack, running it back with Kamara, a viable choice, IMO. Could be a shootout. Also, I'd shoot for a RB for the flex position. Gronk, as usual, is the strongest TE play and at $7.9K, will be loading up there as well. 

No worries, I wore on it at the end too.  I think next year I need to start MLB dfs later in the year.  Maybe do a couple season long leagues, and then start dfs closer to summer after we get a couple months of data to see trends a little better.   I've thrown in a couple WTF LUs in here and there the last couple weeks, but not doing it nearly as much.  I like it, and love that it's smaller gpps, but it's too long of a season to try to keep up almost daily on stuff.  

 

I need to re-look at the posts I made last year after looking at correlation articles for stacking.  I want to say that after QB-Wr1, QB-RB had just as high of a correlation as other WR/TE stacks, but are less popular in gpps.  Same with PK-DT.   I think in the same article they said that RB-DT wasn't as highly correlated as people thought.   Not sure if it's right, but last year I dabbled in trying to go with some of those ideas in bigger gpps (or stacking a full game), and sticking with QB-WR1, QB-TE in my cash/league games.   I got away from RB-DT, and just looked at line comparison to try to find a DT for the week (RG has a good article for free that is their NFL first look, and they have DL vs. OL grades for all the matchups).    It will take a few weeks for us to get data for this year, but based on last year the top President Trump for that department for this week were (in order):  Pit, Cinc, NE, Wash, Chic, Balt.  

 

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More random thoughts. 

I remember hearing on one of the podcasts that the D stats that line up the most from the previous year to the start of the new year is stats vs. RBs and WRs, and the flip side is the stats you ignore a little more are vs QBs and TEs.   Their point was that a lot people will be looking at last year's stats for everything and maybe just going with the TEs vs. NYG and Clev thing again, but the first couple weeks those 2 positions might be good ways to differentiate in gpps.  

Looking at DVOA for RBs, and it looked like Chargers, Tex, Balt, AZ, NYJ, Giants, Jax, and KC had the best matchups.  Comparing that with the OL vs DL for the run which was:  GB, NO, Rams, AZ, NE, Balt, KC, Giants, Jax, and there is a bitof cross over there.  (I bolded the teams that were on both).  It also gives ideas for maybe lesser owned guys like J.Williams, Crowell, or L.Miller for darts in gpps.  

Keep in mind what I just posted above about the QBs stats not carrying over as much, but looking at their list of DVOA by position, I wrote down a few stacks that I thought were interesting and might go lower owned tomorrow:

Dalton - Mixon and/or Ross

Brees - Kamara (higher owned players, but like I said, people don't seem to use QB-RB as much)

Mariota - Walker

Goff - Gurley and/or Cooks 

Trubisky - Howard  and/or A.Rob

 

B/c of those last two, I entered a couple cheap Sun-Mon gpps as well.  

 

 

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1st WTF gpp for Sun-Mon:

Trubisky - Howard - Kamara - A.Rob - Tyrell Williams - D.Westbrook - J.Graham - Gurley - Balt

 

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On 9/5/2018 at 7:16 PM, Galileo said:

My cash game place holder for the moment looks like this...

Taylor or Fitzpatrick   Dalton

Conner

Fournette

Hopkins

M. Thomas

Hilton

Kelce

White

Miami   Cleveland

Not thrilled with QB nor the defense, but I have some nice studs in that lineup by going cheap at those spots.  

 

Slight adjustment...  Also have a lineup at the moment with Fitzpatrick, Rudolph, and Baltimore Def

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Any of you notice the "QuickPick Kickers PROMO" contest(s)?

Pick 1 kicker from each of 4 player tiers and 1 SuperFlex #ForTheBrand

Sure enough, the format requires you to pick 4 PKs and 1 Flex.   Bizarre.  It seems like sheer luck to me. 

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Liking some $1 GPP's more this week, but, am going to throw in one cash LU as well: QB/ Brees, RB/ Kamara - A. Collins, WR/ A.J. Green - Thielen - K. Cole, TE/ Reed, FLEX/ Conner, DEF/ BAL

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So was kicking around unique .25 gpp lineups and came up with this gem

mahomes $6700

Kamara $8700

zeke $8300

Reek $7300

cole $4500

carr $4500

gronk $7900

DJ $8600

CLE $3000

 

wanted to get Zeke, Dj, kamara, and gronk in a lineup. 

Edited by Snorkelson

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2 Lineups, 100% Conner.  Not playing too much volume but sprinkling across 2x/3x/5x and leagues with friends

Brady, Collins/R. Freeman, Hopkins/Hill/Cole, Conner, Gronk, Ravens

Dalton, Kamara/Gordon, AJG/Hogan/Stills, Doyle, Conner, Jags

best of luck 

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So far I have a couple of the odd calls doing OK, but not my main players.  

LU sitting the best might be my last second $1 SE gpp with Fitz-Godwin, Dede, Ross, and Gronk.  Sitting about 80pts or so with Zeke, DJ, and Gordon to go this afternoon.  

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

So was kicking around unique .25 gpp lineups and came up with this gem

mahomes $6700

Kamara $8700

zeke $8300

Reek $7300

cole $4500

carr $4500

gronk $7900

DJ $8600

CLE $3000

 

wanted to get Zeke, Dj, kamara, and gronk in a lineup. 

:thumbup:

That's basically what I started when I did the LU I just posted - Wanted Gronk, DJ, Gordon, Zeke in a LU and went from there.  

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Went relative heavy on Fitzpatrick and Conner. Unfortunately not in any big pots. 

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Just moved into 1st place in a 1pm mini squib.  

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2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Just moved into 1st place in a 1pm mini squib.  

11 point lead.  I have Walker, they have Amendola.

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Holy Hell.  I have 2 lineups this week in 50/50 games.  One sits at 141.12 and the other at 162.72 and I am out of the money in all entries!!!  :shock:

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Shock FD doesn't have any regular games for Sunday night.  This single game stuff is crap.

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25 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Holy Hell.  I have 2 lineups this week in 50/50 games.  One sits at 141.12 and the other at 162.72 and I am out of the money in all entries!!!  :shock:

Good grief - what were the ownership % on some of the players?  I assume that Kamara, Conner, Gronk, Green, and AB were bigly owned?  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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10 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Shock FD doesn't have any regular games for Sunday night.  This single game stuff is crap.

It really is.  I have warmed to smaller slates, but still like to have at least 3 games to choose from.  

I do have a couple odd LUs in the SNF-MNF gpps though.  

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I didn't do 50/50s, but in my double ups, Kamara was at about 65%, Conner 70%. I played them in NFL Huddle, also, where they were only Kamara 29%, Conner 23%. And that's the only game I cleared. Though also because it is the one where I didn't use Saints D or Fournette. :kicksrock:

Edited by Mystery Achiever

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1 minute ago, Mystery Achiever said:

I didn't do 50/50s, but in my double ups, Kamara was at about 65%, Conner 70%. I played them in NFL Huddle, also, where they were only Kamara 29%, Conner 23%. And that's the only game I cleared. Tough also because i is the one I didn't have Saints D or Fournette. 

Oof.   Yeah, that will drive up the cash lines a bit.   I guess I am glad I stuck to 3player/5player/gpps today. 

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I only entered a private game today but put up 171+.  I've got to think scores were really high this week as the scores in my 4 man contest were 171, 167,150 and 135.  

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Just squibs, but finished 1st and 6th.  Hit on the afternoon slate for $35.  I have a couple of good Thursday lineups that in the cash with Gurley and some Packers.

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28 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

 

41 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Shock FD doesn't have any regular games for Sunday night.  This single game stuff is crap.

It really is.  I have warmed to smaller slates, but still like to have at least 3 games to choose from.  

I do have a couple odd LUs in the SNF-MNF gpps though.  

 

:lmao:  Close to $280,000 in overlay in the Sunday Nite Milly.  I hate single game but played 6 entries.  What's stupid is the top prize will likely be chopped 5000+ ways if Rodgers is the top scorer.

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2 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Just squibs, but finished 1st and 6th.  Hit on the afternoon slate for $35.  I have a couple of good Thursday lineups that in the cash with Gurley and some Packers.

NIce! 

I ended up doubling up.  My main LU did 175 so that took a couple 3mans and 3xed in the two gpps that I was in.  Should have gone with my gut and used that in my 10man league, and that would have been another $10.  All my other gpp ideas were duds.  

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Were there overlay opportunities this afternoon?  Dodds wrote that with all the changes, there would be plenty.

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1 minute ago, chet said:

Were there overlay opportunities this afternoon?  Dodds wrote that with all the changes, there would be plenty.

Some, but nothing major.  FD went light on the full contests.  

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Scored 189.56.  That got me in the winnings on 3 of 4, and won a MEGA Q to the WFFC.

 

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7 minutes ago, Kleck said:

Scored 189.56.  That got me in the winnings on 3 of 4, and won a MEGA Q to the WFFC.

 

Sounds great but what is the entry to the WFFC?

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Anyone play 50/50s?  What were the cutoffs in those contests?

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5 minutes ago, chet said:

Sounds great but what is the entry to the WFFC?

$6 mil prize pool for Fan Duels fantasy championship.  There is a live and online championship.  Still learning the details.  I think it's a qualifier to earn a spot in another qualifier for a spot in the finals???  It was only $1 to enter so I gave it shot.  That's the cheap route, or you can just pay the entry fee of $250. 

Anyone else know how this one works? 

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3 minutes ago, Kleck said:

$6 mil prize pool for Fan Duels fantasy championship.  There is a live and online championship.  Still learning the details.  I think it's a qualifier to earn a spot in another qualifier for a spot in the finals???  It was only $1 to enter so I gave it shot.  That's the cheap route, or you can just pay the entry fee of $250. 

Anyone else know how this one works? 

Congrats, but stay away from those in the future unless there's 20%+ overlay.  When you play ticker, qualifier, then main event; FD is taking a 15%+ cut each time.

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Good grief - what were the ownership % on some of the players?  I assume that Kamara, Conner, Gronk, Green, and AB were bigly owned?  

I just looked at a couple of my entries... Conner was 84%, 81%, and 80% owned.  Kamara was 76%, 71%, 79%...

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32 minutes ago, chet said:

Anyone play 50/50s?  What were the cutoffs in those contests?

low to mid 160's

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15 minutes ago, Galileo said:

low to mid 160's

Jebus. 

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29 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Congrats, but stay away from those in the future unless there's 20%+ overlay.  When you play ticker, qualifier, then main event; FD is taking a 15%+ cut each time.

This one had no payout.  If it wasn't $1 entry I would have passed.  Kind of like grabbing that soda at the checkout because it's right there and I already spent $200, so what's another $1. 

Thanks for the heads up on those though.  Good to know...  

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34 minutes ago, Kleck said:

This one had no payout.  If it wasn't $1 entry I would have passed.  Kind of like grabbing that soda at the checkout because it's right there and I already spent $200, so what's another $1. 

Thanks for the heads up on those though.  Good to know...  

You'll see them with overlay thought the season.  I ended up with close to 50 tickets last year.

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$54 in, $50 out in the Sunday Nite Milly with 28% overlay.  Three of six entries cashed.  Mitch getting swamped was my downfall.

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Played in the main GPP

218.88 (309 of 457385)

Won $200 on $9 entry. That last Tennessee score knocked me out of the top 150 I think. I had Hunt put up like ~5 points. Not bitter, but had he done anything this week would've been amazing. 

Edited by sn0mm1s
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9 hours ago, chet said:

Anyone play 50/50s?  What were the cutoffs in those contests?

I played in 3 $2 50/50s and my score of 158.55 didn't cash in any(159.45,162.7,160.4)

Did cash for $5 in a $1 gpp with 185.78 but that was it. $8 in $5 out.

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I am too slow on the uptake.  Sure it was a high scoring week because the chalk did well, but my cash line expectation probably needs to movie 10-20pts up now that they did away with the PK spot.  Can't believe I didn't think about that until now.  :bag:

Especially in cash, I am sure 75% will have an RB in the flex, so do we have to have about 135 in mind for a goal in mind instead 120 going forward?  Something like 2.3x?

Gotta say - I sort of missed PK yesterday.  Nothing else, it was an easy way to a get a low % player in your LU for gpps.  

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7 hours ago, sn0mm1s said:

Played in the main GPP

218.88 (309 of 457385)

Won $200 on $9 entry. That last Tennessee score knocked me out of the top 150 I think. I had Hunt put up like ~5 points. Not bitter, but had he done anything this week would've been amazing. 

Nice! - congrats.  

What was your LU?

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