What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Survivor Contests - Currently Week 14 (1 Viewer)

Zyphros

Footballguy
Figured I could make a master thread for Survivor contest discussion.  I'll update the thread title each week to move on to the current week of the NFL season and we can continue talking about the matchups for each week. 

Anyone doing one of these want to share their first weeks choice? 

Titans looked bad in preseason to me, so Dolphins might be a sneaky option

Ravens seem like the obvious choice over the Bills

Other than those, there's some divisional games that I try to stay away from in terms of making that my pick.  Saints/Buccs, Chiefs/Chargers, Steelers/Browns, Bears/Packers, Rams/Raiders.

Most other games seem like anyone's to win as well.  

So who you got for week 1?  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Excellent! Love this thread.

I do one with 8000 entries, hundred per, anyone want info, send me PM.

Saints are#1 pick with Jameis out, I bet.

 
I've been knocked out in week 1 more than once.  Best to play it safe, IMO.  Don't you dare take the Dolphins vs Titans.  I'm going with Baltimore.
Taking the Dolphins makes no sense. Obviously there’s a greater than zero chance they win, but they are going to be a bad football team and they’ll have easier games than the Titans.

 
Ravens 100%. Perfect case of better team hosting a worse team in a non-division game, and said better team is not one you really need to save for later.

 
Ravens 100%. Perfect case of better team hosting a worse team in a non-division game, and said better team is not one you really need to save for later.
Ravens seem like the chalk play, and I like to take something less just in case that team bumps everyone else out. GB, DET seem safe imo and NO/BAL are the chalk. Didn’t NO lose like week 2-3 a few years ago to TB and knock out a bunch? Hard for me to pick them....

 
Wow.  If you win, how the heck do you even get paid on that?  ....discreetly I mean. lol
You have to pick up in person.

I've daydreamed about how I would arrange security for such a transaction, and what ''arrangements" I might have to make to get this into my accounts.  

For FBG subscribers, some strategy articles:

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-prepping-for-survivor-leagues

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-survivor-pool-strategy

Dr. Dan shared the link for https://www.survivorgrid.com/ above.

This site rules.  You can set up an account for free, and track multiple entries, and it shows the spread for each game, all the way through the season.  Obviously these spreads will change, but pretty cool to have in one spot.  

 
I've always wondered about joining one of there cash survivor contests. Can anyone suggest one or two? Even though I will prolly take Baltimore in week 1 lol.

 
The NFL released the schedule for the 2018 regular season on Thursday night and three teams found out that they’ll have three straight road games on tap this season.

The Rams, Saints and Ravens drew the extended time away from their home stadiums this year. NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy notes that is down from seven such road swings last season.

The Rams’ hit the road in Week Five for a divisional matchup with the Seahawks and then go on to face the Broncos and 49ers before returning home for a Week Eight date with the Packers. The good news for the Rams is that they’ll have three straight home games before setting off on their tour and they’ll have 10 days to prepare for Seattle after facing the Vikings in a Thursday night game.

New Orleans has its road swing later in the season, but they’ll have extra rest before two of the three games. After facing the Cowboys on a Thursday night in Week 13, the Saints face the Buccaneers on a Sunday and then head to Carolina for a Monday night game in Week 15. They close the regular season by hosting the Steelers and Panthers.

The Ravens renew their rivalry with the Steelers on Sunday night in Week Four and then move on for Sunday afternoon games against the Browns and Titans. They host the Saints upon returning to Baltimore in Week Seven.

Ten other teams join the Rams with three-game homestands this season

 
I also really like new Orleans but can always use them later
I don't like NO this week because they are playing a division opponent and from memory (which could be wrong) TB always plays NO tough.  R. Fitzpatrick isn't a great QB but he's a good backup, lots of experience, etc.  NO might blow them out of course but I could see a really tight game as well.  

I'm going with Baltimore - this just seems like the kind of game where the Ravens roll.  BUF has an inexperienced QB, questionable oline, questions about McCoy, bad run defense.  Yeah, I'm going with the Ravens.

 
The most chalky things that I can think of in the past, are always the ones that didn't happen.  Peterman gets a bad rep for 1 game that was just fluky in every way.  He could be serviceable and make the game close.  Everywhere I've seen has buffalo somewhere around the 6-10 mark over the year.  They'll win some games for sure, and Baltimore doesn't scream "great team" to me so this very well could be one of them.  This team isn't nearly as bad as everyone wants to think.  The defense is very good and always underappreciated, plus there are good weapons on offense.  

I just hate going "chalk" because it's still 50/50 no matter how "chalky" it is.  

 
The most chalky things that I can think of in the past, are always the ones that didn't happen.  Peterman gets a bad rep for 1 game that was just fluky in every way.  He could be serviceable and make the game close.  Everywhere I've seen has buffalo somewhere around the 6-10 mark over the year.  They'll win some games for sure, and Baltimore doesn't scream "great team" to me so this very well could be one of them.  This team isn't nearly as bad as everyone wants to think.  The defense is very good and always underappreciated, plus there are good weapons on offense.  

I just hate going "chalk" because it's still 50/50 no matter how "chalky" it is.  
I agree. The bills are a very underrated team. Peterman hasn’t looked bad in the preseason. I really want to go with the Steelers but they’re not playing at home against a browns team finally starting to do things right. Aaron Rodgers losing to Chicago at home primetime week 1 will be the loss i’ll be able to deal with. With that said....I’m going greenbay 

 
The key to winning survivor, imo, is getting thru the first month. Well, and the rest of the games until you win, but it’s easier to predict in October than September. 

I’m hoping a lot of people who picked the saints a few years ago and got knocked out early will avoid them. I’m going with the saints.

 
I'm moving on from week 1 now since most people took the Ravens and are unlikely to put the chances down on tonight's games.  I'm so happy I survived in one of them with my Dolphins pick.  Everywhere else I took the Ravens (3 survivor leagues).

So we have some NFL games to actually go off of in terms of picks so who you got for week 2?  

Starts with Ravens vs Bengals on Thursday

If it's pick on the Bills or Browns every week, Chargers seem like the chalk play and possibly the Saints.  

Other than those I don't see anything glaringly obvious. 

Discuss week 2

 
I'm moving on from week 1 now since most people took the Ravens and are unlikely to put the chances down on tonight's games.  I'm so happy I survived in one of them with my Dolphins pick.  Everywhere else I took the Ravens (3 survivor leagues).

So we have some NFL games to actually go off of in terms of picks so who you got for week 2?  

Starts with Ravens vs Bengals on Thursday

If it's pick on the Bills or Browns every week, Chargers seem like the chalk play and possibly the Saints.  

Other than those I don't see anything glaringly obvious. 

Discuss week 2
Narrowly escaped with my first week pick of GB, I was sure I was out at halftime, thank you AR!  I was planning on NO but with their historic early season struggles and how bad the defense looked yesterday I don't feel comfortable relying on them even against the Browns.  I may go Rams over Cardinals depending on how the Rams look tonight.  After that debacle yesterday I'd even look at Chargers vs BUF if it wasn't an away game and a long trip East for LAC.

 
I took the Ravens over the Bills in Week One and I am sticking with the same strategy and taking the Chargers over the Bills in Weeks 2. 

 
So lany people in my 2 strike league have 1 strike on NO. what a terrible pick. 

Onto week 2

Survivorgrid.com shows that WAS isnt a bad pick vs IND, and they hold very little value rest of season.

Theres also NO over CLE, with little value rest of season. Not sure how I feel about that after last week though. 

LAC @ BUF is the 2nd highest right now, but the Chargers have decent value this year. 

DEN vs OAK isnt bad either.

What I'm looking at is rest of season value, and while week 2 isnt updated yet, the Chargers have some decent value whereas this year it's pretty tough overall- so many teams with just 1 star already. it's possible it might be beneficial to save the Chargers. I get the idea of picking against Buffalo this year... they look really bad. that might not be a bad strategy. 

I'm probably going Chargers or Saints

 
I’m pretty sure I’m going Saints over Browns.  The only thing that will hold me off is if Baker is the starter.  Tyrod isn’t an NFL game winner, Brees is, that’s what my mind is saying.  

 
I’m pretty sure I’m going Saints over Browns.  The only thing that will hold me off is if Baker is the starter.  Tyrod isn’t an NFL game winner, Brees is, that’s what my mind is saying.  
He's above .500 in his career as a starter.  With Buffalo, for Christ's sake.

 
He's above .500 in his career as a starter.  With Buffalo, for Christ's sake.
Buffalo's defense carried that team for so long.  

Would you trust Tyrod to go out and win you a game?  He's probably even behind Tebow in my rankings for that.  

 
The Chargers often start slow, so I’d rather not pick them in a week 2 game on the other coast, no matter how bad the opponent. Don’t know what I’m gonna do yet. Maybe pick NO on the grounds of the “hopping mad” theory— good teams that lose to bad teams don’t let it happen again if they play another bad team the following week. 

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top