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ZWK

ZWK's 2019 Prospect Analysis

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Here are the WRs who weighed in with a BMI below 26.5 at the Senior Bowl or Shrine Game:

24.01    Terry Godwin
24.40    Terry Wright
24.84    Hunter Renfrow
25.33    Jakobi Meyers
25.63    Jamal Custis
25.87    Ryan Davis
25.99    Alex Wesley
26.02    Damarkus Lodge
26.03    Cody Thompson
26.07    Shawn Poindexter
26.25    David Sills V
26.26    Brody Oliver
26.27    Tyre Brady

WRs with a BMI below 26.0 don't have a good track record, and the main exceptions seem to be superfast guys. But I generally believe in fuzzy transitions rather than sharp cutoffs for these sorts of things.

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NC St. WR Kelvin Harmon is someone who my WR ratings are relatively down on, compared to the rd1-2 reputation he seems to be getting.

At first glance this is somewhat surprising, since my formulas put a lot of weight on production and Harmon's 81/1186/7 in 12 games looks like strong production. But my WR ratings formulas see his production as not very impressive, and that is why they're down on him.

A good starting point for looking at Harmon's production is the 4 WR leaderboards that I posted a few weeks ago: Yards Per Team Attempt, Yards Per Target, Market Share of Receiving TDs, and 25+ Yard Receptions Per Game. I picked these 4 stats because they are among the college stats which seem most predictive of NFL success, and they cover a range of different aspects of performance: volume, efficiency, and big plays for tough yards or long gains. Kelvin Harmon made zero of those four top 20 leaderboards. He was above average in most of those stats, but not in the top 20 in any of them. And great NFL receivers are usually not merely above average in college; they stand out with dominant college production.

Harmon was top 20 in some stats - he was 11th in the FBS in receiving yards per game, and 9th in receiving first downs per game (min 8 games). But those stats are less predictive than some of the others, and he benefited from playing on a Finley-led Wolfpack offense that was 8th in the FBS in passing yards per game. And there are also some stats where he was below average relative to the top 100 college receivers, notably at scoring touchdowns (whether you look at per game TDs or market share). Put all his stats together in my receiver production formula, and he comes out as the 34th most productive receiver in college football this year, just behind Travis Fulgham and Stanley Morgan Jr.

His 2017 production was not bad, but was worse across the board (including the basic 69/1017/4 statline).

It's plausible that my formula is underrating him and other production-based systems  will like him more, but I am unlikely to like him enough to take him as early as some other people will.

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I really dug into my tapes tonight and I have to clarify that when I say N’Keal Harry is the 1.01, what I mean is he’s the best WR prospect since Julio. 

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Via a post from @Bracie Smathers, I see that someone has put together an amazing 2019 NFL Draft Database spreadsheet which has information on pretty much every player in this draft class, plus links to more information. If you follow the link where it says "TAPE" for a player it will take you to a brief scouting report on that player (e.g. here is JJ Arcega-Whiteside), and that scouting report page has links to game tape (e.g. here is Arcega-Whiteside against Washington State).

I just used it to update the WR birthdates in my spreadsheet, and there's obviously a lot more that you can do especially if you're into watching game cut-ups and looking for something to replace Draft Breakdown.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

Via a post from @Bracie Smathers, I see that someone has put together an amazing 2019 NFL Draft Database spreadsheet which has information on pretty much every player in this draft class, plus links to more information. If you follow the link where it says "TAPE" for a player it will take you to a brief scouting report on that player (e.g. here is JJ Arcega-Whiteside), and that scouting report page has links to game tape (e.g. here is Arcega-Whiteside against Washington State).

I just used it to update the WR birthdates in my spreadsheet, and there's obviously a lot more that you can do especially if you're into watching game cut-ups and looking for something to replace Draft Breakdown.

Wow. That is pretty, pretty cool. I hope they updateit with combine info.

Thanks for sharing.

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Here is who my formulas currently have as the top 21 WR prospects:

A.J. Brown    Miss
Emanuel Hall    Missouri *
Hakeem Butler    Iowa State
D.K. Metcalf    Miss *
JJ Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford
N'Keal Harry    Ariz St
Lil'Jordan Humphrey    Texas
Gary Jennings Jr.    WVU
    
Antoine Wesley    Texas Tech
Tyler Johnson    Minnesota
Marquise Brown    Oklahoma
Anthony Johnson    Buffalo
Andy Isabella    U Mass
    
Stanley Morgan Jr.    Nebraska
Deebo Samuel    S Carolina
Greg Dortch    Wk Forest
Preston Williams    CSU
Damion Willis    Troy
Cody Thompson    Toledo
Scott Miller    BGSU
John Ursua    Hawai'i

Players with a * (Hall & Metcalf) may be overrated because they're getting probably too much credit for pro-rated stats from <10 games this season.

I expect there to be a lot of reshuffling within tiers between now and the draft, along with a handful of guys jumping up or down a tier, as we get workout data, accurate size measurements, and stats like drop rate. But probably not many new names jumping into the picture.

Edited by ZWK
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16 hours ago, ZWK said:

NC St. WR Kelvin Harmon is someone who my WR ratings are relatively down on, compared to the rd1-2 reputation he seems to be getting.

At first glance this is somewhat surprising, since my formulas put a lot of weight on production and Harmon's 81/1186/7 in 12 games looks like strong production. But my WR ratings formulas see his production as not very impressive, and that is why they're down on him.

A good starting point for looking at Harmon's production is the 4 WR leaderboards that I posted a few weeks ago: Yards Per Team Attempt, Yards Per Target, Market Share of Receiving TDs, and 25+ Yard Receptions Per Game. I picked these 4 stats because they are among the college stats which seem most predictive of NFL success, and they cover a range of different aspects of performance: volume, efficiency, and big plays for tough yards or long gains. Kelvin Harmon made zero of those four top 20 leaderboards. He was above average in most of those stats, but not in the top 20 in any of them. And great NFL receivers are usually not merely above average in college; they stand out with dominant college production.

Harmon was top 20 in some stats - he was 11th in the FBS in receiving yards per game, and 9th in receiving first downs per game (min 8 games). But those stats are less predictive than some of the others, and he benefited from playing on a Finley-led Wolfpack offense that was 8th in the FBS in passing yards per game. And there are also some stats where he was below average relative to the top 100 college receivers, notably at scoring touchdowns (whether you look at per game TDs or market share). Put all his stats together in my receiver production formula, and he comes out as the 34th most productive receiver in college football this year, just behind Travis Fulgham and Stanley Morgan Jr.

His 2017 production was not bad, but was worse across the board (including the basic 69/1017/4 statline).

It's plausible that my formula is underrating him and other production-based systems  will like him more, but I am unlikely to like him enough to take him as early as some other people will.

How do you view the fact that Harmon played with Jakobi Myers, who had 92/1047/4 this season and is also going to get drafted? Presumably, some of the 33 guys ranked above Harmon in your productivity metrics didn't share targets with such a talented teammate at WR.

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9 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

How do you view the fact that Harmon played with Jakobi Myers, who had 92/1047/4 this season and is also going to get drafted? Presumably, some of the 33 guys ranked above Harmon in your productivity metrics didn't share targets with such a talented teammate at WR.

Agreed that having other good receiving talent on the team tends to reduce a player's production score in my metric. But I think it would be a pretty small adjustment in Harmon's case, maybe enough to move him up into my 3rd tier of WRs (the tier that covers WRs 14-21).

For one thing, it's not that unusual to have some other receiving talent on the roster; I think 5 of my current top 8 WR prospects did (at Mississippi, Missouri, Texas, and West Virginia) and so did plenty of successful NFL receivers who had better college production than Harmon. For another, Harmon also played in a high-volume passing offense with a QB who's likely to get drafted, which tends to help a receiver's production score. With Ryan Finley throwing the ball and Jakobi Meyers also drawing coverage, why wasn't Harmon able to top 10 YPT?

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6 hours ago, ZWK said:

Agreed that having other good receiving talent on the team tends to reduce a player's production score in my metric. But I think it would be a pretty small adjustment in Harmon's case, maybe enough to move him up into my 3rd tier of WRs (the tier that covers WRs 14-21).

For one thing, it's not that unusual to have some other receiving talent on the roster; I think 5 of my current top 8 WR prospects did (at Mississippi, Missouri, Texas, and West Virginia) and so did plenty of successful NFL receivers who had better college production than Harmon. For another, Harmon also played in a high-volume passing offense with a QB who's likely to get drafted, which tends to help a receiver's production score. With Ryan Finley throwing the ball and Jakobi Meyers also drawing coverage, why wasn't Harmon able to top 10 YPT?

I initially asked about Myers, but it is more than just him that kept Harmon from having more dominant numbers:

  1. It wasn't just Myers. State's WR corps was very deep this season, going 6 deep in 2018. They lost senior starter Louis after 5 games and basically didn't miss him. So it wasn't necessary to force the ball to Harmon; Finley could just pick the best matchup on any given play. As talented as Harmon was, that wasn't always him since he drew a lot of defensive attention.
  2. Similar deal in 2017, when the team had Jaylen Samuels and Nyheim Hines in addition to Harmon, Myers, and Louis.
  3. While Finley was #6 in the NCAA in passing yards in 2018, he wasn't in the top 20 in passing TDs and had "only" 25. I actually think Finley is rather overrated, and the talent around him described above (plus an outstanding OL) made him more than he made them. I read one draft profile on Harmon that said he was "victimized by playing with a slow-triggered QB in college."

:shrug: 

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The 2017 Mississippi squad had WR DK Metcalf who is likely a 1st or 2nd rounder this year, WR DaMarkus Lodge who is likely to get drafted this year, WR Van Jefferson who is likely to get drafted next year, TE Dawson Knox who has a good chance to get drafted this year, and RB Jordan Wilkins who got drafted in the 5th round last year. AJ Brown still put up 75/1252/11 in 12 games with those teammates, with better stats than Harmon's 2018 in essentially every category, including 13.3 YPT, 39% of the team's receiving TDs, and 1.3 25+ yard receptions per game. In 2012 DeAndre Hopkins had 82/1405/18 (and great stats in a bunch of breakdowns) alongside Clemson teammates Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, Jaron Brown, Adam Humphries, Charon Peake, and Andre Ellington.

So it's possible to put up big numbers while playing with other good receivers and a deep receiving corps. And Harmon's situation (having Meyers, Emezie, Thomas, Riley, and 5 games of Louis) is really not that exceptional; if you want to give receiving prospects a boost for having good teammates who draw away targets then some WRs would get a much larger boost than Harmon, and a bunch would get a similar boost to him.

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51 minutes ago, ZWK said:

The 2017 Mississippi squad had WR DK Metcalf who is likely a 1st or 2nd rounder this year, WR DaMarkus Lodge who is likely to get drafted this year, WR Van Jefferson who is likely to get drafted next year, TE Dawson Knox who has a good chance to get drafted this year, and RB Jordan Wilkins who got drafted in the 5th round last year. AJ Brown still put up 75/1252/11 in 12 games with those teammates, with better stats than Harmon's 2018 in essentially every category, including 13.3 YPT, 39% of the team's receiving TDs, and 1.3 25+ yard receptions per game. In 2012 DeAndre Hopkins had 82/1405/18 (and great stats in a bunch of breakdowns) alongside Clemson teammates Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, Jaron Brown, Adam Humphries, Charon Peake, and Andre Ellington.

So it's possible to put up big numbers while playing with other good receivers and a deep receiving corps. And Harmon's situation (having Meyers, Emezie, Thomas, Riley, and 5 games of Louis) is really not that exceptional; if you want to give receiving prospects a boost for having good teammates who draw away targets then some WRs would get a much larger boost than Harmon, and a bunch would get a similar boost to him.

Well, I certainly don't think Harmon is as good as Hopkins. I don't actually know much about AJ Brown, so not sure what to make of that comparison.

I just think to not have Harmon among your top 3 tiers/top 21 prospects means your system is underrating him quite a bit, and I can't help but think it is somehow situational since your system seems to be very numbers-driven.

Anyway, not trying to derail the thread. Keep up the good work.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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Here's a fun stat: 3rd down conversions. Every player who had at least 20 receiving first downs on 3rd down plays. Note that this does not include 4th down conversions, or touchdowns scored on 3rd & goal, because the way that stats get kept makes those hard to include.

1D   Player           Team    Year
29    Zay Jones    ECU    2016
29    Shaq Washington    Cincinnati    2015
29    Jace Amaro    Texas Tech    2013
29    Freddie Barnes    BGSU    2009
28    Cody Hoffman    BYU    2012
27    Keenan Allen    California    2011
26    Jarvis Landry    LSU    2013
25    Lil'Jordan Humphrey    Texas    2018
25    Linell Bonner    Houston    2016
25    Allen Lazard    Iowa State    2016
25    Amari Cooper    Alabama    2014
25    Ryan Swope    Texas A&M    2011
25    Mohamed Sanu    Rutgers    2011
25    Keith Smith    Purdue    2009
24    Leonard Hankerson    Miami (Fl)    2010
24    Damola Adeniji    Oregon St    2009
23    Mike Williams    Clemson    2016
23    Willie Snead    Ball State    2013
23    Eric Page    Toledo    2010
23    Jordan Shipley    Texas    2009
23    Zeke Markshausen    N'western    2009
22    Dillon Mitchell    Oregon    2018
22    Damonte Coxie    Memphis    2018

22    Austin Carr    N'western    2016
22    Justin Hardy    ECU    2013
22    Darius Johnson    SMU    2011
22    Damarlo Belcher    Indiana    2010
21    Trey Quinn    SMU    2017
21    Courtland Sutton    SMU    2016
21    Richie James    MTSU    2016
21    Keyarris Garrett    Tulsa    2015
21    Casey Martin    USM    2015
21    Mike Williams    Clemson    2014
21    Curry Sexton    Kansas St    2014
21    Nelson Agholor    USC    2014
21    Tommy Shuler    Marshall    2013
21    Randall Cobb    Kentucky    2010
20    Greg Dortch    Wk Forest    2018
20    Riley Miller    Ball State    2018

20    Steven Dunbar    Houston    2017
20    Anthony Miller    Memphis    2016
20    Daikiel Shorts Jr.    WVU    2016
20    Aaron Burbridge    Mich St    2015
20    Tajae Sharpe    U Mass    2015
20    Jordan Payton    UCLA    2015
20    KJ Maye    Minnesota    2015
20    Tyler Lockett    Kansas St    2014
20    Rashad Greene    FSU    2014
20    Josh Harper    Fresno St    2014
20    Shaun Joplin    BGSU    2013
20    Ryan Grant    Tulane    2013
20    Allen Robinson    Penn State    2013
20    DeAndre Hopkins    Clemson    2012
20    Ryan Grant    Tulane    2012
20    Kenny Stills    Oklahoma    2012
20    Tommy Shuler    Marshall    2012
20    Jordan White    W Mich    2011
20    Tyler Eifert    Notre Dame    2011
20    Markus Wheaton    Oregon St    2011
20    Tannar Rehrer    Memphis    2011
20    Gerald Jones    Tennessee    2010

Lil'Jordan Humphrey is in good company as a reliable chain-mover. My formulas like him for having great size plus good production, but this is one place where he comes out on top for production. (I have not been including this stat in my formulas or even in my spreadsheet.)

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Here's an interesting batch of WRs, going back to the 2006 college season:

Hakeem Butler    Iowa State    2018
Andy Isabella    U Mass    2018
Jordan Lasley    UCLA    2017
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St    2017
Corey Davis    W Mich    2014
Rashard Higgins    CSU    2014
Terrance Williams    Baylor    2012
Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010
Alshon Jeffery    S Carolina    2010
Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009
Danario Alexander    Missouri    2009
Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008
Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008
Adarius Bowman    Oklahoma State    2006

Pretty high hit rate, especially after adjusting for knee & alcohol problems.

These are the 14 receiving yardage seasons with elite efficiency and volume, meaning at least:

  • 11 YPT,
  • 40% market share of receiving yards, and
  • 1000 receiving yards

Butler has 12.2 YPT, 42% market share, and 1318 yards. Isabella has 11.6 YPT, 47% market share, and 1698 yards.

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5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Here's an interesting batch of WRs, going back to the 2006 college season:

Hakeem Butler    Iowa State    2018
Andy Isabella    U Mass    2018
Jordan Lasley    UCLA    2017
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St    2017
Corey Davis    W Mich    2014
Rashard Higgins    CSU    2014
Terrance Williams    Baylor    2012
Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010
Alshon Jeffery    S Carolina    2010
Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009
Danario Alexander    Missouri    2009
Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008
Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008
Adarius Bowman    Oklahoma State    2006

Pretty high hit rate, especially after adjusting for knee & alcohol problems.

These are the 14 receiving yardage seasons with elite efficiency and volume, meaning at least:

  • 11 YPT,
  • 40% market share of receiving yards, and
  • 1000 receiving yards

Butler has 12.2 YPT, 42% market share, and 1318 yards. Isabella has 11.6 YPT, 47% market share, and 1698 yards.

On the bolded, how do you see the hit rate here? If we exclude Blackmon (off field issues) and Alexander (injuries) and assume the jury is out on the most recent 4 guys, that leaves 8 players.

I see 4 hits in that group (Nicks, Dez, Thomas, Jeffery), although Nicks was short lived hit. I agree 50% can fairly be characterized as a pretty high hit rate, but it is a very small sample given that it goes back 13 college seasons. What stands out to me more is all the NFL hits at WR during that period who are not on that list.

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10 hours ago, ZWK said:

Lil'Jordan Humphrey is in good company as a reliable chain-mover. My formulas like him for having great size plus good production, but this is one place where he comes out on top for production. (I have not been including this stat in my formulas or even in my spreadsheet.)

I like his teamate Collin Johnson more.  He only appears on one of your lists (1.2 25+ yard receptions per game) so I assume your formula doesn't like him so much?  The stats on Humphrey are better, but Johnson is also open at will sometimes and just didn't get the ball.  

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5 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:
11 hours ago, ZWK said:

Here's an interesting batch of WRs, going back to the 2006 college season:

Hakeem Butler    Iowa State    2018
Andy Isabella    U Mass    2018
Jordan Lasley    UCLA    2017
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St    2017
Corey Davis    W Mich    2014
Rashard Higgins    CSU    2014
Terrance Williams    Baylor    2012
Justin Blackmon    Okla St    2010
Alshon Jeffery    S Carolina    2010
Demaryius Thomas    Ga Tech    2009
Danario Alexander    Missouri    2009
Dez Bryant    Okla St    2008
Hakeem Nicks    N Carolina    2008
Adarius Bowman    Oklahoma State    2006

Pretty high hit rate, especially after adjusting for knee & alcohol problems.

These are the 14 receiving yardage seasons with elite efficiency and volume, meaning at least:

  • 11 YPT,
  • 40% market share of receiving yards, and
  • 1000 receiving yards

Butler has 12.2 YPT, 42% market share, and 1318 yards. Isabella has 11.6 YPT, 47% market share, and 1698 yards.

On the bolded, how do you see the hit rate here? If we exclude Blackmon (off field issues) and Alexander (injuries) and assume the jury is out on the most recent 4 guys, that leaves 8 players.

I see 4 hits in that group (Nicks, Dez, Thomas, Jeffery), although Nicks was short lived hit. I agree 50% can fairly be characterized as a pretty high hit rate, but it is a very small sample given that it goes back 13 college seasons. What stands out to me more is all the NFL hits at WR during that period who are not on that list.

First I noticed that 5/12 of the players who have been through the draft went in the first round, which is a very good rate considering that we're just selecting players based on a couple college production stats. Second, those 5 first rounders have done better than a random group of first round WRs, a little bit better if we just look at what they've done and significantly better if Davis gets an incomplete and Blackmon gets credited with what he showed on the field before off-the-field problems took him off the field. Also, the non-first-round WRs include Jeffery who has been a big success, and Alexander who occasionally looked really good but had his career and draft prospects derailed by knee issues. The list is a mixed bag on the whole, but much better than what I expected to see after just setting a couple non-cherry-picked cutoffs based only on stats related to receiving yards.

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Here's the 2-year 10 YPT club. Every receiver with at least 10 YPT over the 2017-18 combined seasons, min 100 combined targets, limited to guys who played in both seasons, possibly missing a few players who failed to make the cut for my spreadsheet:

14.1    Emanuel Hall    Missouri    (117 targets)
12.8    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma    (188 targets)
12.7    Jerry Jeudy    Alabama    (124 targets)
12.6    CeeDee Lamb    Oklahoma    (156 targets)
12.1    A.J. Brown    Miss    (212 targets)
11.4    Hakeem Butler    Iowa State    (177 targets)
11.2    Malcolm Williams    Coastal Car    (135 targets)
11.1    Darnell Mooney    Tulane    (143 targets)
10.9    Antoine Wesley    Texas Tech    (142 targets)
10.9    JJ Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford    (169 targets)
10.9    T.J. Hockenson    Iowa    (101 targets)
10.7    Anthony Johnson    Buffalo    (221 targets)
10.6    D.K. Metcalf    Miss    (115 targets)
10.5    Andy Isabella    U Mass    (259 targets)
10.5    Diontae Johnson    Toledo    (195 targets)
10.3    Damion Willis    Troy    (145 targets)
10.3    Damonte Coxie    Memphis    (146 targets)
10.2    Tee Higgins    Clemson    (125 targets)
10.2    Marcus Green    La-Monroe    (167 targets)
10.1    Terren Encalade    Tulane    (144 targets)
10.1    Parris Campbell    Ohio State    (163 targets)
10.1    Laviska Shenault Jr.    Colorado    (117 targets)
10.0    Caleb Wilson    UCLA    (145 targets)
10.0    A.J. Richardson    Boise St    (132 targets)

Some notable names are Emanuel Hall way out in front of everyone else, Marquise & AJ Brown topping 12 YPT with a bunch of targets, high-end prospects Butler, Arcega-Whiteside, and Metcalf all appearing, and TEs Hockenson & Caleb Wilson making the cut.

Edited by ZWK

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If I was drafting today, WR AJ Brown would be my #1 dynasty rookie pick.

He currently comes out on top in my WR rating formula (though there's a relatively tight pack at the top). He's had big production numbers in back-to-back years - looking at 2-year totals he has the 2nd most receiving yards (2572), the 12th most TDs (17), the most 25+ yard receptions (31), and the 5th highest YPT (12.1). He was widely considered a contender for "best WR in college football" in 2017 (including #1 by me and PFF), and then followed that up with another big season. On the 2017 Mississippi squad he was surrounded by receiving talent, both high-end (Metcalf) and depth (Lodge, Jefferson, TE Knox), and he still put up big totals as the clear go-to WR. Once the Mississippi receiving corps thinned late this year, he exploded for 670 receiving yards in 5 games without Metcalf (or Jefferson). Prototypical size. Rated highly by PFF and more traditional analysts.

My formula's ratings will change as I get more info, and my opinions might change too, but for now I think that no one has done enough to take the top spot.

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Despite formulas and statistics I definitely think the WR who is more polished in his route tree, has great hands, with the ability to get off the line,  is more important than a WR labeled as a "raw athlete" that has route running and other deficiencies.  Just look at Calvin Ridley last year.  He was the more polished WR in that draft, yet he was not given great athletic marks because of size and other factors.  People were also turned off by his age, yet in the whole scheme of things he's just 24 and won't be 25 until next December.  Let's say that Ridley was coming out this year instead of last and was the same age he was last April, I would definitely value him more than Metcalf, who in my mind has a lots of red flags despite his perceived "raw" athletic ability.  Another good example would be Cooper Kupp before his injury.  I guarantee most FF owners passed on Kupp for a more athletic and  loosely labeled high upside receiver. 

Edited by JohnnyU

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Despite formulas and statistics I definitely think the WR who is more polished in his route tree, has great hands, with the ability to get off the line,  is more important than a WR labeled as a "raw athlete" that has route running and other deficiencies.  Just look at Calvin Ridley last year.  He was the more polished WR in that draft, yet he was not given great athletic marks because of size and other factors.  People were also turned off by his age, yet in the whole scheme of things he's just 24 and won't be 25 until next December.  Let's say that Ridley was coming out this year instead of last and was the same age he was last April, I would definitely value him more than Metcalf, who in my mind has a lots of red flags despite his perceived "raw" athletic ability.  Another good example would be Cooper Kupp before his injury.  I guarantee most FF owners passed on Kupp for a more athletic and  loosely labeled high upside receiver. 

Old wr's coming into the league are often good buys. But dont get too attached because they'll hit their peak soon and it probably isn't going to be a high point. Future stars generally come into the league young. 

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31 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Old wr's coming into the league are often good buys. But dont get too attached because they'll hit their peak soon and it probably isn't going to be a high point. Future stars generally come into the league young. 

My point is that 24 with a good season under your belt isn't old, especially for a WR.  My other point was that Ridley would be the better pick in 2019 over Metcalf given the same age as he was last April.

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

My point is that 24 with a good season under your belt isn't old, especially for a WR.  My other point was that Ridley would be the better pick in 2019 over Metcalf given the same age as he was last April.

I wasnt disagreeing with you. I'm talking macro, you're talking micro. I dont have an opinion on Metcalf right now because of his neck. 

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5 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Despite formulas and statistics I definitely think the WR who is more polished in his route tree, has great hands, with the ability to get off the line,  is more important than a WR labeled as a "raw athlete" that has route running and other deficiencies.  Just look at Calvin Ridley last year.  He was the more polished WR in that draft, yet he was not given great athletic marks because of size and other factors.  People were also turned off by his age, yet in the whole scheme of things he's just 24 and won't be 25 until next December.  Let's say that Ridley was coming out this year instead of last and was the same age he was last April, I would definitely value him more than Metcalf, who in my mind has a lots of red flags despite his perceived "raw" athletic ability.  Another good example would be Cooper Kupp before his injury.  I guarantee most FF owners passed on Kupp for a more athletic and  loosely labeled high upside receiver. 

I’m still not totally sold on Calvin. He’s TD rate was absurd. I think there’s some concern for the ceiling for guys like Ridley, Sterling Shepard, etc. I get that these are polished route runners but they should be since they have had an extra couple years to work on it. I’m still more impressed by a younger guy having a dominant year. Not because I want extra years of him on my dynasty team but because it shows more room to grow.

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14 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I’m still not totally sold on Calvin. He’s TD rate was absurd. I think there’s some concern for the ceiling for guys like Ridley, Sterling Shepard, etc. I get that these are polished route runners but they should be since they have had an extra couple years to work on it. I’m still more impressed by a younger guy having a dominant year. Not because I want extra years of him on my dynasty team but because it shows more room to grow.

Well, if you're not convinced with Ridley who am I to try and change your mind :)

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Well, if you're not convinced with Ridley who am I to try and change your mind :)

LOL. I think he’s Sterling Shepherd 2.0 which is fine but I don’t think his upside is equal to his draft value/perceived dynasty value. I just seen him as more an NFL WR2 and fantasy WE2/3.

Edited by Ilov80s

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1 hour ago, Ilov80s said:

LOL. I think he’s Sterling Shepherd 2.0 which is fine but I don’t think his upside is equal to his draft value/perceived dynasty value. I just seen him as more an NFL WR2 and fantasy WE2/3.

Ridley is a lot quicker than Shepherd and better YAC.  He also averaged over 15 yards per reception to Shepherd's 13.2.

Edited by JohnnyU

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22 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Ridley is a lot quicker than Shepherd and better YAC.  He also averaged over 15 yards per reception to Shepherd's 13.2.

Good point. I didn’t mean similar in playing style so much as similar in career arc.

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14 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Good point. I didn’t mean similar in playing style so much as similar in career arc.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone that would trade Ridley for Shepherd.

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

You would be hard pressed to find anyone that would trade Ridley for Shepherd.

I agree with that but I think Ridley owners have an inflated idea of what he’s going to be. Just like Shep holders did after his 700/8 rookie year.

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2 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

I agree with that but I think Ridley owners have an inflated idea of what he’s going to be. Just like Shep holders did after his 700/8 rookie year.

I disagree and I think he will have a better 2nd year than 1st year fantasy wise, injury notwithstanding.  I'd be willing to bet on it.

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46 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I disagree and I think he will have a better 2nd year than 1st year fantasy wise, injury notwithstanding.  I'd be willing to bet on it.

I’d be willing to put some parameters on a Ridley charity bet. 

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25 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I’d be willing to put some parameters on a Ridley charity bet. 

I would be willing to bet you some amount of cash that in PPR (1pt per reception and 1 pt every 10 yards rec/rush, 6pts TDs) that he exceeds 206 points in 2019 if he plays at least 15 games.  That's what he scored in 16 games and I expect him to do as well in 15 games in 2019.

Edited by JohnnyU

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45 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I would be willing to bet you some amount of cash that in PPR (1pt per reception and 1 pt every 10 yards rec/rush, 6pts TDs) that he exceeds 206 points in 2019 if he plays at least 15 games.  That's what he scored in 16 games and I expect him to do as well in 15 games in 2019.

As long as if he doesn’t play 15 than the bet is void. $20, name your charity.

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53 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

As long as if he doesn’t play 15 than the bet is void. $20, name your charity.

My charity is me.  

I would be willing to bet  for $20 PPR (1pt per reception and 1 pt every 10 yards rec/rush, 6pts TDs) that he exceeds 206 points in 2019 if he plays at least 15 games.  That's what he scored in 16 games and I expect him to do as well in 15 games in 2019.

You made the bet $20 and i'm fine with that as long as the rules are as above.

 

Are we good?

 

Chuck

 

 

Edited by JohnnyU

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

My charity is me.  

I would be willing to bet  for $20 PPR (1pt per reception and 1 pt every 10 yards rec/rush, 6pts TDs) that he exceeds 206 points in 2019 if he plays at least 15 games.  That's what he scored in 16 games and I expect him to do as well in 15 games in 2019.

You made the bet $20 and i'm fine with that as long as the rules are as above.

 

Are we good?

 

Chuck

 

 

No I don’t bet other people like that. I would do fot charity but not just betting 20. Nothing personal- I’m totally sure you would pay, I just don’t do personal bets.

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

My charity is me.  

I would be willing to bet  for $20 PPR (1pt per reception and 1 pt every 10 yards rec/rush, 6pts TDs) that he exceeds 206 points in 2019 if he plays at least 15 games.  That's what he scored in 16 games and I expect him to do as well in 15 games in 2019.

You made the bet $20 and i'm fine with that as long as the rules are as above.

 

Are we good?

 

Chuck

 

Or should we make it $100?

 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

No I don’t bet other people like that. I would do fot charity but not just betting 20. Nothing personal- I’m totally sure you would pay, I just don’t do personal bets.

Should we make it $100?

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Should we make it $100?

For charity, sure.

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7 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

F charity, I want your money.  You willing?

No 

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

 Ok, that's what I figured it would come to.

Not sure what to say, I’ve made charity bets here before and paid. I’m just not interested in wagering on this for personal money. Feel free to come here and blast me if Ridley has 1100/6 this year. 

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12 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Not sure what to say, I’ve made charity bets here before and paid. I’m just not interested in wagering on this for personal money. Feel free to come here and blast me if Ridley has 1100/6 this year. 

LOL, ok

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

LOL, ok WTF?

What do you mean by WTF? I am trying to raise a little money for charity. That is the only kind of gambling I am interested in. 

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Texas WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey made the top tier of my current WR rankings, at the #7 slot. That's a lot higher than most people have him, and it feels a little weird to be doing that since I'm usually all about production and his production wasn't that great. I have him 34th among WRs in career production, just a few spots ahead of Kelvin Harmon who I'm down on, and like Harmon he made none of my top 20 leaderboards. His stats are actually pretty similar to Harmon's, above average but not great, with slightly more TDs than Harmon and on a less prolific passing offense. Generally production comes first when I look at WR prospects, and Humphrey's production is above average for a college WR but borderline for an NFL prospect, and on the lower end of borderline. Though he does have one statistical bright spot as the best 3rd down chain mover in the country this year (which doesn't get included in my formulas).

So how does a guy with borderline production end up in my top tier of WRs? The way that I've set my formulas up, other numbers like 40 times help distinguish between the WRs with great production but they can't make up for a lack of great production. But there are 2 exceptions, and Humphrey has both of them.

The first exception is age. Older WRs have generally had more chances to put up big production numbers, and they have had more time to develop their bodies and their skillset, so a given level of production is more impressive when it's done by a younger player instead of an older player. Being younger essentially lowers the baseline of what counts as impressive production, not by a lot, but by enough to make a difference for guys with borderline production. And Humphrey is one of the youngest WRs in this draft class (born 4/19/98), younger than any of the main WRs who are getting talked about as possible rd 1-2 picks, by about a year on average. He's a year younger than AJ Brown, 2 years younger than Hakeem Butler, and 3 years younger than Anthony Johnson, though just 4 months younger than Metcalf or Harry.

The other exception is size, and Humphrey is huge (estimated at 6'4", 225; we'll see at the combine). NFL teams and analysts have repeatedly been high on huge WR prospects who my formulas didn't like because of their lack of great production (Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Mike Williams, etc.), and while they haven't turned into superstars they generally have done at least somewhat better in the NFL than my formulas suggested. So I decided a few years ago to adjust my formulas to give a bit of a bump to huge WRs, in a way that can make up for lack of production. As with age, it's just a modest bump (so my formula is still pretty pessimistic about guys like Benjamin & Funchess even after the bump), but it makes a difference especially for guys like Humphrey who have borderline production. I'm less sure about this feature of my formula than I am about the age adjustment, but it does at least seem plausible that size gives a receiver an advantage that matters more in the NFL than in college, since college receivers are more often able to actually get open while winning a route in the NFL is more often about body positioning and playing through contact. And there are signs that Humphrey is able to use his size well, including his 3rd down conversation numbers and video of him winning jump balls and making plays over the middle in a Colston-style big slot role.

One concern that some people have about Humphrey is that he might just be a big lumbering guy who doesn't have the movement skills needed to succeed in the NFL. Walter Football has him at WR19 and warns "He can't run at all and will really struggle to separate from pro cornerbacks." We'll get some numbers on his athleticism at the combine, and hopefully Reception Perception will have numbers on how reliably he got open, but for now we can see that nfldraftscout has him estimated at 4.50 speed and other sources (including Walter Football) have him in the 4.5s. Also, Texas made use of him as a kick returner, on WR screens, and as a wildcat quarterback, which shows that they didn't think of him as just a big lumbering target.

Put it all together, and WR7 seems like about the right ballpark to me. I'm actually not sure we he's not more highly regarded. I have a hard time picking out which huge receivers (without huge production) will be highly touted prospects and which ones will barely merit a mention. Maybe there are important things which jump out on video which the tape watchers all spot, but which don't show up in the numbers that I crunch.

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17 hours ago, ZWK said:

Texas WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey made the top tier of my current WR rankings, at the #7 slot. That's a lot higher than most people have him, and it feels a little weird to be doing that since I'm usually all about production and his production wasn't that great. I have him 34th among WRs in career production, just a few spots ahead of Kelvin Harmon who I'm down on, and like Harmon he made none of my top 20 leaderboards. His stats are actually pretty similar to Harmon's, above average but not great, with slightly more TDs than Harmon and on a less prolific passing offense. Generally production comes first when I look at WR prospects, and Humphrey's production is above average for a college WR but borderline for an NFL prospect, and on the lower end of borderline. Though he does have one statistical bright spot as the best 3rd down chain mover in the country this year (which doesn't get included in my formulas).

So how does a guy with borderline production end up in my top tier of WRs? The way that I've set my formulas up, other numbers like 40 times help distinguish between the WRs with great production but they can't make up for a lack of great production. But there are 2 exceptions, and Humphrey has both of them.

The first exception is age. Older WRs have generally had more chances to put up big production numbers, and they have had more time to develop their bodies and their skillset, so a given level of production is more impressive when it's done by a younger player instead of an older player. Being younger essentially lowers the baseline of what counts as impressive production, not by a lot, but by enough to make a difference for guys with borderline production. And Humphrey is one of the youngest WRs in this draft class (born 4/19/98), younger than any of the main WRs who are getting talked about as possible rd 1-2 picks, by about a year on average. He's a year younger than AJ Brown, 2 years younger than Hakeem Butler, and 3 years younger than Anthony Johnson, though just 4 months younger than Metcalf or Harry.

The other exception is size, and Humphrey is huge (estimated at 6'4", 225; we'll see at the combine). NFL teams and analysts have repeatedly been high on huge WR prospects who my formulas didn't like because of their lack of great production (Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Mike Williams, etc.), and while they haven't turned into superstars they generally have done at least somewhat better in the NFL than my formulas suggested. So I decided a few years ago to adjust my formulas to give a bit of a bump to huge WRs, in a way that can make up for lack of production. As with age, it's just a modest bump (so my formula is still pretty pessimistic about guys like Benjamin & Funchess even after the bump), but it makes a difference especially for guys like Humphrey who have borderline production. I'm less sure about this feature of my formula than I am about the age adjustment, but it does at least seem plausible that size gives a receiver an advantage that matters more in the NFL than in college, since college receivers are more often able to actually get open while winning a route in the NFL is more often about body positioning and playing through contact. And there are signs that Humphrey is able to use his size well, including his 3rd down conversation numbers and video of him winning jump balls and making plays over the middle in a Colston-style big slot role.

One concern that some people have about Humphrey is that he might just be a big lumbering guy who doesn't have the movement skills needed to succeed in the NFL. Walter Football has him at WR19 and warns "He can't run at all and will really struggle to separate from pro cornerbacks." We'll get some numbers on his athleticism at the combine, and hopefully Reception Perception will have numbers on how reliably he got open, but for now we can see that nfldraftscout has him estimated at 4.50 speed and other sources (including Walter Football) have him in the 4.5s. Also, Texas made use of him as a kick returner, on WR screens, and as a wildcat quarterback, which shows that they didn't think of him as just a big lumbering target.

Put it all together, and WR7 seems like about the right ballpark to me. I'm actually not sure we he's not more highly regarded. I have a hard time picking out which huge receivers (without huge production) will be highly touted prospects and which ones will barely merit a mention. Maybe there are important things which jump out on video which the tape watchers all spot, but which don't show up in the numbers that I crunch.

I have a hard time reconciling your takes on Humphrey and Harmon.

Humphrey is 4 months younger than Harmon, which implies based on this post that Harmon is about 8 months younger on average than the other round 1-2 prospects. You didn’t mention giving Harmon any credit for age.

Some sources have Harmon at 6’2” and others at 6’3”. Sources I have seen have Harmon at 213-218 lbs and Humphrey at 220-225 lbs. So Humphrey has 1-2 inches and about 7 lbs on Harmon. Their projected 40 times are similar.

Meanwhile, Harmon has better athleticism and better college production with 2 straight 1K seasons.

I also saw it noted that Humphrey’s snaps almost all came in the slot, which could suggest he is limited to the slot. Harmon is an outside WR. I would expect outside WR to be viewed as slightly more valuable.

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Lil'Jordan Humphrey is Cordarelle Patterson 2.0.  Not the new and improved version but the same exact player coming out of college.  Some will be enamored with him, some will hate him.  I for one hate him.  Both not good at running routes and they're used in gimmicky ways to create openings for them to succeed.  Which don't get me wrong is a good thing, and what their coaches should be doing, but he has no place on an NFL team unless it's just as a body or kick returner.  

On all of my watching of prospects I try to use production along with my eyes and I just can't get behind him at all.  I'll be shocked if he succeeds.  Production is really good in his final year so I'll give him a chance, but he won't be on any of my teams.  

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