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ZWK

ZWK's 2019 Prospect Analysis

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14 hours ago, ZWK said:

Football Outsiders has published their QBASE QB projections. They don't love any of the QBs in this draft class, and are highest on Murray & Haskins. Here's how they rate in comparison to the last 4 draft classes:

Rtg    Player                   Class
1480    Baker Mayfield    2018
1302    Marcus Mariota    2015
1211    Jared Goff    2016
656    Lamar Jackson    2018
656    Patrick Mahomes    2017
623    Josh Rosen    2018
595    Kyler Murray    2019
527    Dwayne Haskins    2019

446    Mitchell Trubisky    2017
439    Jameis Winston    2015
423    Dak Prescott    2016
419    Joshua Dobbs    2017
412    Sam Darnold    2018
398    Ryan Finley    2019
343    Mason Rudolph    2018
341    Sean Mannion    2015
286    Davis Webb    2017
277    Luke Falk    2018
274    Carson Wentz    2016
273    Kyle Lauletta    2018
271    Drew Lock    2019
263    Daniel Jones    2019

261    Deshaun Watson    2017
105    Paxton Lynch    2016
6    Brad Kaaya    2017
-30    DeShone Kizer    2017
-45    Jarrett Stidham    2019
-83    Josh Allen    2018
-151    Will Grier    2019
-196    Garrett Grayson    2015
-245    Nathan Peterman    2017
-298    Connor Cook    2016
-411    Christian Hackenberg    2016

The formula does take a player's projected draft position into account.

What goes into this?  I know why I didn't like some of the guys they have near the top (Rosen, Winston), but don't know why they didn't like some guys I was higher on (W Davis, C Wentz).  Also, where's Garoppolo?  Had him rated super high coming in.

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2 hours ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

What goes into this?  I know why I didn't like some of the guys they have near the top (Rosen, Winston), but don't know why they didn't like some guys I was higher on ([D Webb], C Wentz).  Also, where's Garoppolo?  Had him rated super high coming in.

From the bottom of the linked article:

Quote

 

What you're seeing are the effects of two projection systems built very differently. Hermsmeyer's CPOE system is based solely on the on-field production and statistics. It's built on a smaller sample of quarterbacks, going back to just 2012. (QBASE is built on quarterbacks going back to 1997.) But because it only includes recent quarterbacks, it can base its projections on more advanced, intricate game-charting statistics that we don't have for older quarterbacks, primarily average depth of target. Grier had excellent stats last year. His 10.7 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked third in FBS behind Murray and Tua Tagovailoa. He completed 67.0 percent of his passes. And he had a high average depth of target, which helps him score well in the CPOE system.

Grier comes out poorly in QBASE because of the elements that aren't included in the CPOE system. Grier has only two years of starting experience. QBASE is also factoring in scouting consensus to try to account for the things we can't measure with statistics, and consensus has Grier as a third-round selection, not a first-rounder. Finally, Grier also played the easiest schedule of the seven prospects listed here, with his average opponent ranking 71st in pass defense S&P+.

 

I'm guessing that Wentz was dinged by QBASE for strength of schedule coming out of FCS (as would Garoppolo if he weren't mysteriously absent), as well as (like Watson) his relatively short track record as starter.

Note how FO tries to cover their tracks on this score by saying, "Expand the list of quarterback prospects to those with just two years of starting experience, and this group of passers still has a lousy track record. The best of the two-year starters are Joe Flacco, Michael Vick, and Alex Smith. The jury's still out on players such as Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson." The jury's still out? I mean, come on. If an NFL-wide dispersal draft were held today they'd be two of the first 5 players chosen.

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Garoppolo wasn't in the list because he came out in 2014. He would slide in between Murray and Haskins.

The 2016 QBASE article gives a better explanation of what their formula is based on, as well as a big table of QBASE projections for QBs in the 1996-2016 draft classes.

Quote

To come up with NFL projections for this year's top quarterback prospects, QBASE looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position. The last of these is included to account for the scouting information that college stats miss. To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's passing efficiency in the third, fourth, and fifth year of his career according to our measure, Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). Note that rushing value is not part of this projection. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect.

QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long resume of college success according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt, and team passing efficiency. Most importantly, all those stats are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates.

 

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Football Outsiders has also posted their RB and WR projections, currently behind an ESPN paywall (but they'll post a free and more detailed version at some point).

At RB they love Darrell Henderson, are down on Josh Jacobs, and see the rest of the class as pretty meh (though it has several decent prospects).

At WR they don't see any elite prospects at the top. They're highest on Hakeem Butler before taking projected draft position into account, but after adjusting for draft position he falls to 4th behind Marquise Brown, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and AJ Brown.

I'll post more details once they do.

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3 hours ago, ZWK said:

Football Outsiders has also posted their RB and WR projections, currently behind an ESPN paywall (but they'll post a free and more detailed version at some point).

At RB they love Darrell Henderson, are down on Josh Jacobs, and see the rest of the class as pretty meh (though it has several decent prospects).

At WR they don't see any elite prospects at the top. They're highest on Hakeem Butler before taking projected draft position into account, but after adjusting for draft position he falls to 4th behind Marquise Brown, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and AJ Brown.

I'll post more details once they do.

This is where staying ahead of the curve a bit gets me in trouble.  I've loved AJ Brown for months, he gets so little hype and yet he's still behind those guys in someone's rankings?  I start to get nervous a little bit about what opinions I've made on certain players with how little they are talking about them.  AJ Brown being the best example.  

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With pro days mostly in, here is how this RB class is looking (using my standard tier labels):

Wow: Darrell Henderson
Guys I like a lot:
Guys I like:
Awkwardly between tiers: Darwin Thompson
Guys who have a decent chance: Darrin Hall, Trayveon Williams, Miles Sanders, Damarea Crockett, Bryce Love, Justice Hill, Dexter Williams
Guys I can't rule out: Mike Weber, Kerrith Whyte, Jr., Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Devine Ozigbo, Travis Homer, Alex Barnes, Damien Harris, David Montgomery, Qadree Ollison, Ryquell Armstead, A.J. Ouellette, Josh Jacobs, Benny Snell, Jr., Karan Higdon, Alexander Mattison, Myles Gaskin, Rodney Anderson

Historically, guys on Henderson's tier have usually been named "Saquon", the "like a lot" and "like" tiers have usually contained players, guys on Thompson's tier and above usually get drafted in the first 3 rounds, the "decent chance" tier doesn't have a great hit rate but includes some studs and solid RBs, and the "can't rule out" tier has a pretty awful hit rate despite the occasional Kenyan Drake or Chris Carson. In other words, the formula says go get Henderson, Thompson is a good value, and it's worth looking into the next 7 guys but probably not in rd1.

I decided to take a closer look at the 3 Dars that my formula is spitting out on top, since it's a pretty unusual top 3 and if I rely on this formula I might wind up drafting them in a bunch of leagues. So I brought up some game videos and broke out my old elusiveness charting spreadsheet which I used to use for my Hard to Tackle ratings (before PFF rendered my efforts not worth the time).

I think my charting has two important advantages over PFF. First, I separate plays into "in traffic" and "in space", which helps pinpoint how much the RB is adding since it's much easier to generate yards after contact and missed tackles in space (and some RBs get many more of their touches in space). Second, I use "capped yards after contact", because if an RB slips a tackle at the line of scrimmage and then goes 80 yards untouched for a score then crediting him with 80 yards after contact is giving him way too much credit for that bit of elusiveness.

PFF's yards after contact & missed tackle numbers show Dar. Henderson with otherworldly elusiveness (way ahead of any other RB on record), Dar. Thompson with elite elusiveness (near the front of the pack), and Dar. Hall with really good elusiveness.

My charting rates Henderson & Thompson as having really good elusiveness, and Hall as averageish. Their numbers are here (you need to check other tabs to see how they stack up).

Henderson was amazing in space, especially at the 2nd/3rd level where he was able to make DBs/LBs miss while continuing at speed. That led to a bunch of long TDs and other big plays. Other than that, he seemed averageish at beating defenders (and he rated a bit below average in traffic). He profiles similar to Dalvin Cook and Kenneth Dixon. He doesn't look like he belongs in the "Wow" tier, but I do like him.

Thompson had very good elusiveness numbers both in traffic and in space. Although at least some of that was the weak competition - those extra yards that he picked up against New Mexico State weren't showing up against Michigan State. So he continues to be hard for me to evaluate after watching his games, but I think there is enough there for him to at least like him as a sleeper.

Darrin Hall looked like nothing special, and I would take him behind many of the other guys who my formula has in the same tier.

Edited by ZWK
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Football Outsiders WR rankings. Here are the top 143 WRs since 2014 according to their Playmaker Rating (which does not take into account projected draft position - the writeup on their site instead highlights a different rating which does take that into account and has Marquise Brown on top for this draft class).

Year    Name    College
2016    Corey Coleman    Baylor
2017    Jalen Robinette    Air Force
2017    Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
2017    Carlos Henderson    Louisiana Tech
2017    John Ross    Washington
2014    Brandin Cooks    Oregon St.
2015    Amari Cooper    Alabama
2016    Will Fuller    Notre Dame
2019    Hakeem Butler    Iowa State
2017    Dede Westbrook    Oklahoma
2014    Odell Beckham Jr.    LSU
2018    Tre'Quan Smith    Central Florida
2018    DJ Moore    Maryland
2018    Richie James    Middle Tennessee State
2014    Marqise Lee    USC
2019    Marquise Brown    Oklahoma
2017    Corey Davis    Western Michigan
2015    Sammie Coates    Auburn
2016    Tyler Boyd    Pittsburgh
2019    N'Keal Harry    Arizona State
2015    Stefon Diggs    Maryland
2016    Pharoh Cooper    South Carolina
2016    Rashard Higgins    Colorado State
2014    Davante Adams    Fresno St.
2015    Nelson Agholor    Southern California
2014    Allen Robinson    Penn St.
2014    Paul Richardson    Colorado
2014    Kelvin Benjamin    Florida St.
2019    J.J. Arcega-Whiteside    Stanford
2015    Breshad Perriman    UCF
2017    Chris Godwin    Penn State
2014    Mike Evans    Texas A&M
2014    Austin Franklin    New Mexico St.
2015    DeAndre Smelter    Georgia Tech
2017    KD Cannon    Baylor
2019    Diontae Johnson    Toledo
2015    Titus Davis    Central Mich.
2019    Andy Isabella    Massachusetts
2019    Dillon Mitchell    Oregon

2017    Isaiah Ford    Virginia Tech
2014    Martavis Bryant    Clemson
2016    Roger Lewis    Bowling Green
2017    Josh Reynolds    Texas A&M
2014    Sammy Watkins    Clemson
2014    Willie Snead    Ball St.
2018    Courtland Sutton    SMU
2018    Byron Pringle    Kansas State
2019    A.J. Brown    Ole Miss
2014    Bruce Ellington    South Carolina
2019    Antoine Wesley    Texas Tech
2017    Shelton Gibson    West Virginia
2014    Jarvis Landry    LSU
2015    Jaelen Strong    Arizona St.
2015    Tyler Lockett    Kansas St.
2014    Donte Moncrief    Ole Miss
2017    Malachi Dupre    LSU
2016    Michael Thomas    Ohio State
2017    JuJu Smith-Schuster    Southern California
2016    Demarcus Ayers    Houston
2017    Taywan Taylor    W. Kentucky
2017    Josh Malone    Tennessee
2017    Jerome Lane    Akron
2016    Bralon Addison    Oregon
2018    Korey Robertson    Southern Mississippi
2019    Greg Dortch    Wake Forest
2018    Anthony Miller    Memphis
2017    Isaiah McKenzie    Georgia
2018    Christian Kirk    Texas A&M
2018    Jordan Lasley    UCLA
2019    Darius Slayton    Auburn
2014    Cody Latimer    Indiana
2018    Equanimeous St. Brown    Notre Dame
2016    Leonte Carroo    Rutgers
2019    Lil'Jordan Humphrey    Texas
2015    Devin Smith    Ohio St.
2017    ArDarius Stewart    Alabama
2019    D.K. Metcalf    Ole Miss
2019    Mecole Hardman    Georgia

2014    Brandon Coleman    Rutgers
2018    Cedrick Wilson    Boise State
2014    Josh Huff    Oregon
2017    Kenny Golladay    Northern Illinois
2015    Devin Funchess    Michigan
2018    Deontay Burnett    Southern California
2018    Quadree Henderson    Pittsburgh
2016    Sterling Shepard    Oklahoma
2017    Mike Williams    Clemson
2016    Josh Doctson    TCU
2019    Anthony Johnson    Buffalo
2018    Michael Gallup    Colorado State
2019    Cody Thompson    Toledo
2018    James Washington    Oklahoma State
2018    Auden Tate    Florida State
2015    Darren Waller    Georgia Tech
2016    Laquon Treadwell    Mississippi
2018    Calvin Ridley    Alabama
2019    Jovon Durante    West Virginia
2017    Chad Hansen    California
2018    DJ Chark    LSU
2015    Dorial Green-Beckham    Missouri
2015    Tony Lippett    Michigan St.
2019    Kelvin Harmon    North Carolina State
2014    Damian Copeland    Louisville
2014    Jordan Matthews    Vanderbilt
2014    Jeremy Gallon    Michigan
2019    Jakobi Meyers    North Carolina State
2019    David Sills    West Virginia

2017    Travis Rudolph    Florida State
2015    Antwan Goodley    Baylor
2016    Demarcus Robinson    Florida
2019    Riley Ridley    Georgia
2019    Jalen Hurd    Tennessee

2017    Keevan Lucas    Tulsa
2015    Phillip Dorsett    Miami (FL)
2016    Jalin Marshall    Ohio State
2015    Ty Montgomery    Stanford
2014    Josh Stewart    Oklahoma St.
2016    Mike Thomas    Southern Miss.
2014    Tevin Reese    Baylor
2018    Simmie Cobbs    Indiana
2017    Devante Noil    Texas A&M
2016    Cayleb Jones    Arizona
2015    Jamarcus Nelson    UAB
2015    Da'ron Brown    Northern Ill.
2014    Chris Boyd    Vanderbilt
2016    Ricardo Louis    Auburn
2019    Deebo Samuel    South Carolina
2019    Miles Boykin    Notre Dame

2018    Deon Cain    Clemson
2019    Emanuel Hall    Missouri
2014    Quincy Enunwa    Nebraska
2015    Chris Conley    Georgia
2018    J'Mon Moore    Missouri
2016    De'Runnya Wilson    Mississippi State
2019    Gary Jennings    West Virginia
2017    Artavis Scott    Clemson
2018    Antonio Callaway    Florida
2016    Kenny Lawler    California
2017    Noah Brown    Ohio State
2014    Jalen Saunders    Oklahoma
2016    Keyarris Garrett    Tulsa
2019    Parris Campbell    Ohio State
2019    Stanley Morgan    Nebraska

Quote

 Playmaker Score is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I wide receivers drafted in the years 1996-2016, and measures the following:

  • The wide receiver's projected draft position from ESPN's Scouts, Inc.;
  • The prospect's best or "peak" season for receiving yards per team attempt (i.e., a wide receiver with 1,000 receiving yards whose team passed 400 times would score a "2.50");
  • The wide receiver prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt;
  • The difference between the prospect's peak season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt and the prospect's most recent season for receiving touchdowns per team attempt (this factor is simply "0" for a player whose peak season was his most recent season);
  • The wide receiver's vertical jump from pre-draft workouts;
  • A variable that rewards players who enter the draft as underclassmen and punishes those who exhaust their college eligibility;
  • The wide receiver's college career yards per reception; and
  • The wide receiver's rushing attempts per game during their peak season for receiving yards per team attempt.

They do not pro-rate stats for missed games, which works against guys like DK Metcalf and Emanuel Hall.

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I think it is interesting that FBO rated DeDe Westbrook ahead of Marquise Brown. My brief impression of watching the two players tends to agree with that, which is why I wonder about how highly some have Brown ranked.

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Here are a few top 8 WR prospect lists, each from analytics-minded folks.

ZWK Formula
D.K. Metcalf
Emanuel Hall
Hakeem Butler
A.J. Brown
N'Keal Harry
Gary Jennings
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Playmaker Rating
Hakeem Butler
Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Diontae Johnson
Andy Isabella
Dillon Mitchell
A.J. Brown

PFF Grade
Andy Isabella
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Parris Campbell
Marquise Brown
Greg Dortch
Emanuel Hall
Damion Willis
Preston Williams

Hayden Winks PPR Projection
Andy Isabella
N’Keal Harry
Kelvin Harmon
D.K. Metcalf
A.J. Brown
Gary Jennings
KeeSean Johnson
Parris Campbell

None of these take into account projected draft position. The PFF Grade is only based on 2018 season on-the-field performance; the others use formulas which also incorporate things like combine workouts, age, and previous seasons. Hayden Winks PPR Projection was only done for WRs who worked out at the combine (so JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Marquise Brown aren't included).

I went with top 8 because there is a clear tier drop in the ZWK Formula after WR8.

Only one name appears on all 4 lists: Andy Isabella. On 3 lists there's N'Keal Harry, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, and A.J. Brown (with Arcega-Whiteside ineligible for the 4th list because he skipped the combine workout). On 2 lists are Hakeem Butler, D.K. Metcalf, Marquise Brown, Emanuel Hall, and Gary Jennings. And on just 1 list we have Kelvin Harmon, Greg Dortch, Diontae Johnson, KeeSean Johnson, Damion Willis, Dillon Mitchell, and Preston Williams.

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3 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I think it is interesting that FBO rated DeDe Westbrook ahead of Marquise Brown. My brief impression of watching the two players tends to agree with that, which is why I wonder about how highly some have Brown ranked.

I also rate Westbrook ahead of Marquise Brown as a prospect. Westbrook had a bigger year in 2016 than Brown did in 2018. 80/1524/17 receiving for Westbrook vs. 75/1318/10 for Brown, and Westbrook's season also comes out ahead in other stats like YPT or market share. Apart from production: Westbrook's big weakness was how thin he was but Brown's BMI is just as low; Brown's big strength is his speed but I have Westbrook with a 4.41 (pro day time after adjustment) and it's hard to project a guy who didn't run as much faster than that.

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One RB analysis that has been going around is Adam Levitan's minimum RB thresholds. He defines a minimum threshold on each of 6 combine numbers (ht, wt, bench, 40, vert, broad), picking the threshold so that about 90% of his sample of 26 successful RBs met each threshold. Then he notes how many of the thresholds each RB in this draft class met.

I am not a fan of this style of analysis. One problem is that it doesn't do a good job of distinguishing between stats that are very important vs. stats that are slightly important (or even completely unimportant). If you pick any stat (even something silly like "day of month on which player was born") it will have some distribution, and then you can pick a cutoff such that about 90% of the successful RBs met that cutoff. Extreme scores on any distribution are rare, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're a bad sign - e.g. it's fairly unusual for a RB to be born on the 28th of the month or later, but that doesn't mean that we should be worried that Ryquell Armstead was born on October 29th. From my look at historical RBs, 40 time is very important, weight is important, vertical & broad are both important (but they're basically measuring the same thing so it's better to combine them into an overall explosiveness rating), bench only matters slightly, and being short is completely irrelevant except insofar as it's related to low weight (so it's better to ignore height and just look at weight). So doing something with 40 time, weight, and jumps seems useful, while throwing bench & height in there on the same footing is mostly just adding noise.

There is also a risk of overfitting to historical data when you set thresholds. A broad jump of 118" isn't that different from 117" or 119"; if there happened to be several successful RBs who jumped 118" but (almost) none who jumped 117" then you can set your threshold in between those lengths and it will look like a better fit to historical data. But then you're basically just fitting it to noise in how things happened to cluster. That can make it seem like you're on to something (that successful RBs met these thresholds more often than unsuccessful RBs), especially if you get to fine-tune 6 different thresholds, but you shouldn't actually expect much difference between a new RB prospect who jumps 117" and one who jumps 118".

But the biggest problem with using thresholds is that most of the stats that matter for predicting NFL success don't have a threshold nature. RBs don't basically divide into those that are too slow (over 4.60 forty time) and those whose speed is fine (sub 4.60). Speed helps a RB succeed, and the faster the better. Going from 4.65 to 4.55 helps, and going from 4.55 to 4.45 helps, and going from 4.45 to 4.35 helps too by about as much. And so if you just look at "Did this guy run a 4.60 or faster?" then you're throwing away most of the information that you get from the 40. You're successfully noting that guys like Devin Singletary are worryingly slow, but you're not distinguishing at all between the 4.35 guy and the 4.55 guy (you're similarly not distinguishing between Kareem Hunt's 4.62 and Antonio Andrews's 4.82).

My preferred way to look at combine numbers is to take a weighted average. That lets every 0.01s of 40 time matter, and it lets you choose to place more importance on 40 time than on bench press. Here are those numbers again (using my weights; someone else who took a weighted average would presumably do some things differently but I expect that their ratings would be highly correlated with mine):

On 3/1/2019 at 3:22 PM, ZWK said:

Here's my size+athleticism ranking of the combine RBs based on their combine numbers:

31.9    Justice Hill
27.6    Alex Barnes
25.7    Miles Sanders
20.9    Ryquell Armstead
20.5    Travis Homer
18.1    Dexter Williams
17.2    Darrell Henderson
17.1    Karan Higdon
17.0    Mike Weber
12.3    Damien Harris
9.0    Tony Pollard
7.9    Trayveon Williams
5.5    Jordan Scarlett
5.5    Alexander Mattison
0.4    Myles Gaskin
-2.5    David Montgomery
-3.4    Qadree Ollison
-6.9    Benny Snell, Jr.
-9.7    James Williams
-21.0    Devin Singletary
-23.3    Elijah Holyfield
-24.9    Nick Brossette
-37.6    Alec Ingold

The scale is basically arbitrary, but bigger numbers matter more. This incorporates height, weight, bmi, 40, vert, broad, 3cone, short shuttle, bench. It's limited to the guys who ran the 40 at the combine.

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On 4/12/2019 at 12:17 AM, Biabreakable said:

I think it is interesting that FBO rated DeDe Westbrook ahead of Marquise Brown. My brief impression of watching the two players tends to agree with that, which is why I wonder about how highly some have Brown ranked.

I think Brown is a slightly better player than Westbrook, but Westbrook has also been unlucky to be saddled with Bortles/Kessler his entire pro career. If he'd have been drafted by say, New Orleans, maybe he's putting up big numbers.

I have Brown as a 1st/2nd border pick, and had Westbrook as a mid 2nd rounder. Westbrook only went later in the draft because he had 2 separate domestic violence arrests. 

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

I am not a fan of this style of analysis. One problem is that it doesn't do a good job of distinguishing between stats that are very important vs. stats that are slightly important (or even completely unimportant). If you pick any stat (even something silly like "day of month on which player was born") it will have some distribution, and then you can pick a cutoff such that about 90% of the successful RBs met that cutoff. Extreme scores on any distribution are rare, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're a bad sign - e.g. it's fairly unusual for a RB to be born on the 28th of the month or later, but that doesn't mean that we should be worried that Ryquell Armstead was born on October 29th.

On the other hand, if he had been born on February 29th it would completely skew his breakout age and age-adjusted dominator metrics:  ”He had 1000 yards and accounted 35% of his team’s offense, and hasn’t even reached his sixth birthday yet!”

(Seriously though...excellent post.  Good analysis of why some analytics are more rational than others.)

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I think Brown is a slightly better player than Westbrook, but Westbrook has also been unlucky to be saddled with Bortles/Kessler his entire pro career. If he'd have been drafted by say, New Orleans, maybe he's putting up big numbers.

I have Brown as a 1st/2nd border pick, and had Westbrook as a mid 2nd rounder. Westbrook only went later in the draft because he had 2 separate domestic violence arrests. 

Maybe he is. Maybe he is more than slightly better, as well. Only time will tell.

Im just not sure Brown will be a 1st round pick or be in the top 3 WR drafted, despite some folks who seem to think that he will. Its something that has made me wonder about why Brown is ranked so highly by prominent members of the draft media as he is, when I do not recall similar interest in Westbrook when he was coming out.

You bring up a good point about the character issues with Westbrook. He was drafted in the 4th round by the Jaguars. Maybe if not for the baggage he would have been a 2nd or 3rd round pick instead.

Brown did perform at a younger age than Westbrook did. Westbrook was a 24 year old rookie, so perhaps another reason he wasn't drafted higher than he was.

There seems to be a lot of similarities between the 2 players. Same school. Similar size. Similar speed. Similar production in college although Westbrook was doing this at an older age.

I had to look it up and I had Westbrook as borderline tier two, at the top of tier 3. in my 2017 rankings. My memory was fonder of him than where I ranked him. I forgot some of the flaws he had and why I wasn't willing to make him tier two.

It will be interesting to see how high he actually goes in the NFL draft.

 

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Im just not sure Brown will be a 1st round pick or be in the top 3 WR drafted, despite some folks who seem to think that he will. Its something that has made me wonder about why Brown is ranked so highly by prominent members of the draft media as he is, when I do not recall similar interest in Westbrook when he was coming out.

Contrary to recent rumors, I think the 1st round will be very WR heavy. I could easily see as many as 5 WR's go in round 1, and I expect Brown(both Browns for that matter) to be among them. A lot of teams in that 20-32 range could be looking at WR, and each one will likely rank them differently.

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18 hours ago, travdogg said:

Contrary to recent rumors, I think the 1st round will be very WR heavy. I could easily see as many as 5 WR's go in round 1, and I expect Brown(both Browns for that matter) to be among them. A lot of teams in that 20-32 range could be looking at WR, and each one will likely rank them differently.

Yeah maybe it will. I just don't think Brown is one of them.

If so then folks like McShay and Kiper are more off than usual.

I do think Marquise Brown is a good player. He is so small though, it is hard for me to see him going in the 1st round.

TY Hilton would be the most recent comparison to have success in the NFL. He was a 3rd round pick.

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12 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Yeah maybe it will. I just don't think Brown is one of them.

If so then folks like McShay and Kiper are more off than usual.

I do think Marquise Brown is a good player. He is so small though, it is hard for me to see him going in the 1st round.

TY Hilton would be the most recent comparison to have success in the NFL. He was a 3rd round pick.

Big difference is M. Brown went to a major college program while TY went to FIU.  

The level of competition is quite different.

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19 hours ago, travdogg said:

Contrary to recent rumors, I think the 1st round will be very WR heavy. I could easily see as many as 5 WR's go in round 1, and I expect Brown(both Browns for that matter) to be among them. A lot of teams in that 20-32 range could be looking at WR, and each one will likely rank them differently.

I think so too. especially with a lot of teams in the back half of the round needing some wrs

Why do you see Marquis Brown going round 1? I just dont understand the hype behind him at all. He will look like a JV player out there with how small he is...

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1 hour ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Big difference is M. Brown went to a major college program while TY went to FIU.  

The level of competition is quite different.

Thats fair. I was trying to think of a successful WR of similar size recently. Tyreek Hill would be another one.

I can't think of one as light as Brown who has been a 1st round pick.

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Just now, Biabreakable said:

Thats fair. I was trying to think of a successful WR of similar size recently. Tyreek Hill would be another one.

I can't think of one as light as Brown who has been a 1st round pick.

That would be a better example.  

This isn't meant to nitpicked because everyone has a different history,  He probably would have been a D1 player without his history.  I think he took his college route due to his troubled youth.  But since he didn't end up at D1 his level of competition is more similar to TY.

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On 4/13/2019 at 4:40 PM, ZWK said:
On 4/11/2019 at 12:38 AM, ZWK said:

Guys who have a decent chance: Qadree Ollison

 

Got my eye on this guy.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think so too. especially with a lot of teams in the back half of the round needing some wrs

Why do you see Marquis Brown going round 1? I just dont understand the hype behind him at all. He will look like a JV player out there with how small he is...

I think with the way passing games are being built more and more in recent years, size is becoming less and less of a prerequisite. Hollywood separates as well as anyone, and is very good after the catch. I think there is this idea that he's a deep threat only, and that isn't really true. He's a very good WR in the intermediate levels, and can be schemed away from jams, in much the way that Tyreek Hill often is. I think people would like Brown more if he'd had a combine, he likely would have been around a 4.30 40. He ran a 4.33 when he transferred from JUCO, and that was with almost no exposure to weight training or nutrition.

I think Hollywood might be a bit of a mold breaker. I think, if he had the same quicks, and route running skill and weighed 190, he'd be the WR1 on everyone's board, and a top-10 pick. He'll get slowed by some more physical corners, but what if they whiff on jams? That was always a big issue when physical guys played prime D-Jax. They'd shut him down most of the game, but then they'd miss once or twice, and he'd finish with 3-75-1, and DB's seemingly get away with less holding now, then even 5 years ago. 

Then again, I could be wrong, and I could just like him more than the NFL does. I'm a separation is the #1 trait for a WR guy. Its part of why I have almost no interest in Harmon, and very little in Harry, yet am a huge fan of Isabella and Hollywood. 

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35 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Thats fair. I was trying to think of a successful WR of similar size recently. Tyreek Hill would be another one.

I can't think of one as light as Brown who has been a 1st round pick.

Even Hilton has 17 pounds on Brown.  Brown is basically inbetween JJ Neslon and Desean Jackson. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I think with the way passing games are being built more and more in recent years, size is becoming less and less of a prerequisite. Hollywood separates as well as anyone, and is very good after the catch. I think there is this idea that he's a deep threat only, and that isn't really true. He's a very good WR in the intermediate levels, and can be schemed away from jams, in much the way that Tyreek Hill often is. I think people would like Brown more if he'd had a combine, he likely would have been around a 4.30 40. He ran a 4.33 when he transferred from JUCO, and that was with almost no exposure to weight training or nutrition.

I think Hollywood might be a bit of a mold breaker. I think, if he had the same quicks, and route running skill and weighed 190, he'd be the WR1 on everyone's board, and a top-10 pick. He'll get slowed by some more physical corners, but what if they whiff on jams? That was always a big issue when physical guys played prime D-Jax. They'd shut him down most of the game, but then they'd miss once or twice, and he'd finish with 3-75-1, and DB's seemingly get away with less holding now, then even 5 years ago. 

Then again, I could be wrong, and I could just like him more than the NFL does. I'm a separation is the #1 trait for a WR guy. Its part of why I have almost no interest in Harmon, and very little in Harry, yet am a huge fan of Isabella and Hollywood. 

interesting. 

I think so many people want the next Hill, which is why Brown has appeal I guess. 

Even if he had 15 pounds I'd feel better. I just cant get over it...

Who do you like better long term- Brown or Anthony Miller?

 

I admit, he looks electric and unguardable due to his speed.

Edited by Dr. Dan

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35 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

interesting. 

I think so many people want the next Hill, which is why Brown has appeal I guess. 

Even if he had 15 pounds I'd feel better. I just cant get over it...

Who do you like better long term- Brown or Anthony Miller?

Brown by quite a bit, and I'm a Bears fan. Brown will likely end up in at least as good an offense, and almost certainly will have a better QB.

I wouldn't rule out Brown gaining some more weight. By his own admission, he never lifted weights until 2017.

Edited by travdogg
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On 3/27/2019 at 1:47 PM, ZWK said:

Pro day results so far (mostly from draftscout and Walter Football😞

WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone
WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone
WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty     
WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 bench
WR John Ursua (news): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench
WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (news): 4.46 forty, 35, vert, 14 bench
WR Damion Willis (wf): 4.48 forty, 7.00 cone
WR Antoine Wesley (wf) 4.65 forty
RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench
RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench
RB Devine Ozigbo (wf): 4.54 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 19 bench
RB Darrin Hall (wf): 4.42 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 6.72 cone, 27 bench
RB Damarea Crockett (wf): 4.40 forty, 37 vert
RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (wf): 4.36 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 21 bench
EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (wf): 4.75 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 24 bench, 6'4" ht, 271 lb., 34.3" arms

These are the forty times that the source reported, but for my ratings I'm adding an additional 0.02 to the draftscout forty times and 0.05 to all the other forty times given here since pro day forty times tend to run fast. (Do pro day short shuttle and 3 cone times also tend to run fast? I haven't looked into that, but it's less important since they play a much smaller role in my evaluations.)

At WR, Scott Miller & Damion Willis move up, Antoine Wesley moves down. The 3 of them are now rated close to each other in the WR10-15 range between Stanley Morgan and Anthony Johnson.

At RB, Darrin Hall, Damarea Crockett, and Kerrith Whyte move up and Jacobs moves down. Darrin Hall is the big riser - my formula now has him at the top of the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier - so I'm going to take a closer look at him and fill in some missing data. Crockett, Whyte, and Jacobs are all in the "can't rule him out" tier.

I would like to see workout numbers for WR Marquise Brown, WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR Keelan Doss, WR Jalen Hurd, RB Darwin Thompson, RB Maleek Irons, RB Bryce Love, RB Ty Johnson, RB AJ Ouellete, TE CJ Conrad, EDGE Nate Harvey, EDGE EJ Ejiya, and EDGE Ronheen Bingham. Early reports are that Ty Johnson ran fast but they are extremely sketchy reports.

QB Kyler Murray didn't work out and I think that RB Rodney Anderson isn't going to work out either.

Draftscout now has everyone's pro day numbers. Arcega-Whiteside's solid 40 time holds up in their numbers at 4.50, as do the fast times of WR Damion Willis (4.51), RB Kerrith Whyte (4.37), RB Ty Johnson (4.40), and TE Dawson Knox (4.59). Some others do not: updated slower 40 times cause Darwin Thompson (4.55), Darrin Hall (4.52), Damarea Crockett (4.50), and Devine Ozigbo (4.65) to slide down my RB rankings.

WR Preston Williams (draftscout): 4.61 forty, 31.5 vert, 116 broad, 4.35 shuttle, 7.11 cone
WR Greg Dortch (draftscout): 4.59 forty, 33 vert, 109 broad, 4.08 shuttle, 6.89 cone
WR Anthony Johnson (draftscout): 4.55 forty
WR Scott Miller (draftscout): 4.36 forty, 34 vert, 123 broad, 4.02 shuttle, 6.97 cone, 15 bench
WR Antoine Wesley (nflds): 4.68 forty
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (nflds): 4.50 forty, 34 vert, 119 broad, 4.41 shuttle, 7.23 cone
WR Jalen Hurd (nflds): 4.64 forty, 35.5 vert, 124 broad, 4.15 shuttle
WR John Ursua (nflds): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 120 broad, 4.16 shuttle, 6.77 cone, 17 bench
WR Damion Willis (nflds): 4.51 forty, 33.5 vert, 110 broad, 4.50 shuttle, 7.04 cone, 13 bench
WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams (nflds): 4.57 forty, 35 vert, 126 broad, 4.38 shuttle, 6.90 cone, 14 bench
WR Keelan Doss (nflds): 4.56 forty, 36 vert, 124 broad
TE Dawson Knox (nflds): 4.59 forty, 34 vert, 122 broad, 4.31 shuttle, 7.02 cone
TE CJ Conrad (nflds): 4.80 forty, 33 vert, 113 broad, 4.41 shuttle, 7.14 cone, 21 bench
RB Josh Jacobs (draftscout): 4.64 forty, 35 vert, 112 broad, 18 bench
RB D.J. Knox (draftscout): 4.75 forty, 29.5 vert, 108 broad, 4.46 shuttle, 7.54 cone, 30 bench
RB Maleek Irons (news): 4.59 forty, 33.5 vert, 119 broad, 4.21 shuttle, 7.20 cone, 18 bench
RB AJ Ouellete (nflds): 4.56 forty, 36.5 vert, 117 broad, 4.09 shuttle, 6.84 cone, 32 bench
RB Darrin Hall (nflds): 4.52 forty, 32 vert, 122 broad, 4.03 shuttle, 6.94 cone, 27 bench
RB Damarea Crockett (nflds): 4.50 forty, 37 vert, 119 broad, 4.32 shuttle, 7.43 cone, 21 bench
RB Ty Johnson (nflds): 4.40 forty, 34.5 vert, 123 broad, 13 bench
RB Devine Ozigbo (nflds): 4.65 forty, 37 vert, 124 broad, 4.27 shuttle, 6.95 cone, 19 bench
RB Kerrith Whyte, Jr. (nflds): 4.37 forty, 42 vert, 132 broad, 4.37 shuttle, 7.20 cone, 21 bench
RB Darwin Thompson (nflds): 4.55 forty, 39 vert, 126 broad, 4.30 shuttle, 6.93 cone, 23 bench
RB Nico Evans (nflds): 4.56 forty, 37 vert, 122 broad, 4.38 shuttle, 7.41 cone, 22 bench
RB LJ Scott (nflds): 4.70 forty
EDGE Jaylon Ferguson (nflds): 4.82 forty, 32 vert, 117 broad, 5.12 shuttle, 8.08 cone, 24 bench
EDGE Nate Harvey (nflds): 5.01 forty, 29 vert, 106 broad, 4.45 shuttle, 7.24 cone, 20 bench
EDGE EJ Ejiya (nflds): 4.82 forty, 35.5 vert, 118 broad, 4.30 shuttle, 7.22 cone, 18 bench
DL Ed Oliver (nflds): 4.73 forty, 4.22 shuttle, 7.15 cone

It looks like WR Marquise Brown, RB Bryce Love, RB Rodney Anderson, and EDGE Ronheen Bingham won't be working out due to injury, and QB Kyler Murray won't by choice.

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4 hours ago, ZWK said:

It looks like WR Marquise Brown, RB Bryce Love, RB Rodney Anderson, and EDGE Ronheen Bingham won't be working out due to injury, and QB Kyler Murray won't by choice.

Well these aren't up to the minute, they are all official athletic stats from recruitment, and better than nothing. 

 Marquise Brown was clocked at 4.33 in the 40 as a JUCO transfer in 2017.

Bryce Love clocked in at 4.30 in the 40, 4.21 shuttle and 37 inch vertical as a 2015 prospect. 

Rodney Anderson had a 4.63 40, 3.97 shuttle, and 36 inch vertical as a 2015 prospect.

Ronheen Bingham had a 4,78 40 as a JUCO transfer in 2017.

Kyler Murray had a 4.38 40 time as a JUCO transfer in 2017, while just recovered from a hamstring pull while playing baseball. Many teammates believe him to be faster than Marquise Brown. Beats Vick's time(4.41) in 2001.

 

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Are those adjusted for the "pro day 40"?

No, those are the numbers being reported by Draftscout. I add another 0.02 to their 40 times for my estimates. I have been adding 0.05 to other sources but it looks like I should up that to 0.07 given the gap between these new Draftscout times and the earlier reports.

4 hours ago, travdogg said:

Well these aren't up to the minute, they are all official athletic stats from recruitment, and better than nothing. 

 Marquise Brown was clocked at 4.33 in the 40 as a JUCO transfer in 2017.

Bryce Love clocked in at 4.30 in the 40, 4.21 shuttle and 37 inch vertical as a 2015 prospect. 

Rodney Anderson had a 4.63 40, 3.97 shuttle, and 36 inch vertical as a 2015 prospect.

Ronheen Bingham had a 4,78 40 as a JUCO transfer in 2017.

Kyler Murray had a 4.38 40 time as a JUCO transfer in 2017, while just recovered from a hamstring pull while playing baseball. Many teammates believe him to be faster than Marquise Brown. Beats Vick's time(4.41) in 2001

Those tell us something, but these "someone with the team claimed" times are less reliable than Draftscout pro day numbers and probably also less reliable than news reports of Pro Day times.

I did find this tweet about Marquise Brown's on-the-field speed, although I don't know the methodology behind it:

Quote

On deep routes in 2019, #Oklahoma WR Marquise Brown (@Primetime_jet) averaged a running speed of 22.3 mph.

This would be 2nd in the NFL only behind Tyreek Hill at 22.4 mph.

 

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Players who are attending the draft:

QB Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones
TE: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant
WR: DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown
RB: Josh Jacobs

(Plus a bunch of guys who don't get yards or touchdowns.)

Dwayne Haskins is the most notable missing name. I'm not sure if he didn't get an invite or if he turned it down. This gives some teeth to the rumors that he is not as high on draft boards as the public draft community thought.

My analytics aren't especially high on Daniel Jones, Marquise Brown, or Josh Jacobs, but this is a strong sign that they have a good chance of getting drafted in the first round. I do think that the evaluations of NFL teams tell us a lot about players (even though this thread is mostly about me trying to form my independent impressions which ignore that sort of thing). If all 3 are in fact 1st rounders, then I'll wind up being most on board with Marquise Brown (who had had good production but is hurt in his ratings by his lack of size) and least on board with Daniel Jones (who had mediocre production), with Josh Jacobs in between and closer to Brown.

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It looks like Matt Harmon's Reception Perception will not be producing data on this WR class. Apparently he doesn't have access to college all-22 film, which he was able to get for the previous few draft classes. He is still doing writeups about a bunch of WR prospects which make for interesting reads, but IMO those are much less useful than the hard numbers (especially in terms of how much new insight they add beyond what is already part of the draft discussion). His summary of what he's up to:

Quote

Note: Since I no longer have access to the necessary college film to chart prospects and their Reception Perception samples, I’ll be taking RP data from the NFL level and using it to frame what we can expect from these incoming rookies and their best role as pro receivers.

 

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4 hours ago, ZWK said:

It looks like Matt Harmon's Reception Perception will not be producing data on this WR class. Apparently he doesn't have access to college all-22 film, which he was able to get for the previous few draft classes. He is still doing writeups about a bunch of WR prospects which make for interesting reads, but IMO those are much less useful than the hard numbers (especially in terms of how much new insight they add beyond what is already part of the draft discussion). His summary of what he's up to:

 

I bet hes charging the same

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On 4/16/2019 at 5:06 PM, ZWK said:

Players who are attending the draft:

QB Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones
TE: TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant
WR: DK Metcalf, Marquise Brown
RB: Josh Jacobs

(Plus a bunch of guys who don't get yards or touchdowns.)

Dwayne Haskins is the most notable missing name. I'm not sure if he didn't get an invite or if he turned it down. This gives some teeth to the rumors that he is not as high on draft boards as the public draft community thought.

My analytics aren't especially high on Daniel Jones, Marquise Brown, or Josh Jacobs, but this is a strong sign that they have a good chance of getting drafted in the first round. I do think that the evaluations of NFL teams tell us a lot about players (even though this thread is mostly about me trying to form my independent impressions which ignore that sort of thing). If all 3 are in fact 1st rounders, then I'll wind up being most on board with Marquise Brown (who had had good production but is hurt in his ratings by his lack of size) and least on board with Daniel Jones (who had mediocre production), with Josh Jacobs in between and closer to Brown.

Where would you rate Brown as a wr and overall if he is wr1 or wr2 in the NFL draft? or does that specifically depend on destination?

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If Marquise Brown goes in the late 1st round to an averageish situation then he's probably around dynasty WR #27 (before adding the other rookies) and a mid to late 1st round rookie pick. Similar to Lockett, Watkins, Sutton. Probably similar to Arcega-Whiteside and Isabella if they go in the 2nd round.

Biggest plus is the combination of early draft pick and strong college production. If a highly drafted WR has poor college production that's the easiest way to find busts, and Brown hits the production bar just fine.

Biggest negative is how small he is, with low BMI and very short too. A bit smaller than DJax. Other early round WRs with similar BMI who were a bit taller include Harry Douglas, Ted Ginn, Titus Young, Brandon Tate, Will Fuller, Paul Richardson, and Dante Pettis. His size is a negative sign even after accounting for draft position. Brown's speed (which I think is probably legit even though he didn't run a 40) partially counteracts that concern (since there have been some successful small superfast WRs). If he had also produced as a returner or runner that would help counter it even more, but he didn't.

Another downside with Brown is that speedy deep threats have more NFL value than fantasy value - both because they force the defense to adjust, and because of how PPR rewards receptions.

The praise that he gets for his route running seems like another good sign.

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

If Marquise Brown goes in the late 1st round to an averageish situation then he's probably around dynasty WR #27 (before adding the other rookies) and a mid to late 1st round rookie pick. Similar to Lockett, Watkins, Sutton. Probably similar to Arcega-Whiteside and Isabella if they go in the 2nd round.

Biggest plus is the combination of early draft pick and strong college production. If a highly drafted WR has poor college production that's the easiest way to find busts, and Brown hits the production bar just fine.

Biggest negative is how small he is, with low BMI and very short too. A bit smaller than DJax. Other early round WRs with similar BMI who were a bit taller include Harry Douglas, Ted Ginn, Titus Young, Brandon Tate, Will Fuller, Paul Richardson, and Dante Pettis. His size is a negative sign even after accounting for draft position. Brown's speed (which I think is probably legit even though he didn't run a 40) partially counteracts that concern (since there have been some successful small superfast WRs). If he had also produced as a returner or runner that would help counter it even more, but he didn't.

Another downside with Brown is that speedy deep threats have more NFL value than fantasy value - both because they force the defense to adjust, and because of how PPR rewards receptions.

The praise that he gets for his route running seems like another good sign.

wow. thanks. 

 

Any concern about his late breakout age? 

He is amazing on film. Sometimes I wonder if it's on Fast Forward! 

His breakout age is concerning, along with his size. I'll be in a position in all of my dynasty leagues to potentiall draft him if his value is a mid to late 1st

Edited by Dr. Dan

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

wow. thanks. 

 

Amy concern about his late breakout age? 

He is amazing on film. Sometimes I wonder if it's on Fast Forward! 

His breakout age is concerning, along with his size. I'll be in a position in all of my dynasty leagues to potentiall draft him if his value is a mid to late 1st

The thing is that if he goes mid-late 1st in the NFL draft, pretty much anywhere except Baltimore, he’ll most likely be actually picked in the early 1st in rookie drafts.

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26 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Amy concern about his late breakout age?

He had at least pretty good production every year of his career: 50/754/10 in 10 games as a freshman at College of the Canyons, then 57/1095/7 as a sophomore at Oklahoma, then 75/1318/10 as a junior at Oklahoma. When Player Profiler calculates breakout age they ignore his freshman year since it was junior college (which is potentially reasonable) and they rate his sophomore year as not a breakout because it didn't meet their market share threshold. So they count him as a junior year (2018, age 21.3) breakout with his 75/1318/10 season. I think that's a problem with using market share as your only production stat, rather than a problem with Brown. His first 1000 yard season was plenty good to count as a breakout.

They also have him with a not good Dominator Rating, which again seems like a problem with relying only on market share. Good NFL receivers had good college production across a bunch of metrics, including ones that Brown excelled at like YPT and number of 25+ yard receptions, and I don't think it should count against him too much that he didn't dominate targets in an extremely prolific passing offense.

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11 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I thought he'd be an early 2nd in most PPR drafts, but you guys think he could end up mid to late 1st?? 

If he’s the WR1 or WR2 off the board in the NFL draft he is going before early 2nd. 

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Marquise Brown went 14th & 12th in the two drafts that have been posted in the Post your rookie drafts thread, and 14th in the Shark Pool polls for PPR leagues.

IMO there are a few players who went ahead of him in one or more league who should not have (Kelvin Harmon in all 3 leagues, Parris Campbell in 1, Deebo Samuel in 1) and no players who went after him who definitely should have gone before him (although some are close calls). So late 1st seems right currently, and if he does go in the 1st then I imagine that will move him up a little (though it depends on where others go).

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48 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I thought he'd be an early 2nd in most PPR drafts, but you guys think he could end up mid to late 1st?? 

DLF discussion has people mentioning him as high as wr2 or 1.1. This place is very down on him, but that place is bonkers for him

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28 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Marquise Brown went 14th & 12th in the two drafts that have been posted in the Post your rookie drafts thread, and 14th in the Shark Pool polls for PPR leagues.

IMO there are a few players who went ahead of him in one or more league who should not have (Kelvin Harmon in all 3 leagues, Parris Campbell in 1, Deebo Samuel in 1) and no players who went after him who definitely should have gone before him (although some are close calls). So late 1st seems right currently, and if he does go in the 1st then I imagine that will move him up a little (though it depends on where others go).

I current have Isabella as a safer option, and rated above him, but that could change. 

The number of sub 170lb wrs who have had success in the NFL is a very short list 

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7 hours ago, ZWK said:

It looks like Matt Harmon's Reception Perception will not be producing data on this WR class. Apparently he doesn't have access to college all-22 film, which he was able to get for the previous few draft classes. He is still doing writeups about a bunch of WR prospects which make for interesting reads, but IMO those are much less useful than the hard numbers (especially in terms of how much new insight they add beyond what is already part of the draft discussion). His summary of what he's up to:

 

I noticed that too and was disappointed to learn that.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

DLF discussion has people mentioning him as high as wr2 or 1.1. This place is very down on him, but that place is bonkers for him

That doesn't show up in their rankings or mock draft ADP.

DLF staff rookie rankings have M Brown 10th (and no one has him higher than 7th), DLF rookie mock drafts have him 16th (behind Rodney Anderson), and DLF startup mock drafts have him as the 14th rookie off the board and the 50th WR (behind James Washington and Golden Tate).

But maybe their message board is a separate community from those?

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Here's a look at this TE class heading into the draft.

First, the top 35 TE prospects since 2006 according to my TE formula. This is a pretty simple formula which is just based on standard production stats (I posted about these TEs' production ratings a few months ago) and workout numbers, and doesn't account for more advanced stats like drop rate (or even market share).

Vernon Davis    2006
Evan Engram    2017
Noah Fant    2019
Ladarius Green    2012
Coby Fleener    2012
Mike Gesicki    2018
Dustin Keller    2008
Rob Gronkowski    2010
Jermaine Gresham    2010
George Kittle    2017
Jace Amaro    2014
MyCole Pruitt    2015
Rob Housler    2011
Bucky Hodges    2017
David Njoku    2017
Tyler Higbee    2016
Adrien Robinson    2012
Jonnu Smith    2017
Dennis Pitta    2010
Dallas Goedert    2018
Jace Sternberger    2019
Michael Egnew    2012
Gerald Everett    2017
Jared Cook    2009
Thomas Duarte    2016
T.J. Hockenson    2019
Ben Braunecker    2016
Tony Scheffler    2006
Pharaoh Brown    2017
Luke Willson    2013
Caleb Wilson    2019
Eric Ebron    2014
O.J. Howard    2017
Lance Kendricks    2011
Travis Kelce    2013

There's a pretty big gap here, so for the rest I'll cut out most of the TEs from prior classes and only include guys who have had some success in the NFL. Continuing from Kelce:

Travis Kelce    2013
Delanie Walker    2006
Gary Barnidge    2008
Aaron Hernandez    2010
Greg Olsen    2007
Jimmy Graham    2010
Charles Clay    2011
Tyler Eifert    2013
Kahale Warring    2019
Irv Smith    2019
Dawson Knox    2019
Foster Moreau    2019

Jordan Cameron    2011
Owen Daniels    2006
Josh Oliver    2019
C.J. Conrad    2019

Martellus Bennett    2008
Julius Thomas    2011
Brent Celek    2007
Alize Mack    2019
Zach Ertz    2013
Brandon Pettigrew    2009
Keenen Brown    2019
Jordan Reed    2013
Drew Sample    2019
Kaden Smith    2019
Kyle Rudolph    2011
Zach Gentry    2019
Jermichael Finley    2008
Isaac Nauta    2019

The formula loves Fant, and is high on Sternberger, Hockenson, and Wilson. Fant has amazing athleticism and good production, and the formula doesn't know about his awful drop rate. Sternberger has amazing enough production to make up for his below average production. Hockenson has good production and good size/athleticism. Wilson has very good production, and averageish size/athleticism (undersized with a fast 40 but bad jumps & agility drills).

The two Iowa TEs are likely first rounders. My formula gives a strong thumbs up to both of them, especially Fant. The consensus favors Hockenson. I'm inclined to agree with the consensus. For one thing, Fant has one of the worst drop rates in this draft class (even worse than Hakeem Butler) and Hockenson has one of the best. My formula doesn't take that into account. For another, Fant's rating by my formula is based on his most productive season, 2017. His 2018 production wasn't as good, as Hockenson overtook him as Iowa's top TE. As with Clemson 2012 (when DeAndre Hopkins overtook Sammy Watkins), this is a good sign for Hockenson and a bad one for Fant. And then there are the scouting reports, and the PFF grades, and the projected draft position. Given all that, Hockenson is looking like one of the strongest, cleanest high-end prospects in the draft, and the track record for first round tight ends is very good. He has a reasonable case for being the #1 fantasy pick in TE premium, even though his lack of elite athleticism reduces chances of having Gonzalez/Sharpe/Gates upside. Fant seems more boom-or-bust; I actually feel pretty similarly about him and Hakeem Butler.

Irv Smith is widely seen as the 3rd TE in this class. The big negative there is his size. At at just 6'2.4" with 31.5" arms, his length is at the extreme low end for a TE and would middle of the pack for a WR (e.g., 53rd percentile among this set of successful NFL WRs, close to Eric Decker, Davante Adams, Torrey Smith, and Tyler Boyd). But there have been some smallish TEs who had plenty of receiving success, like Shannon Sharpe, Aaron Hernandez, and Delanie Walker, so the size is not a dealbreaker. So I'm more on board with him than my formula is, especially since his size is really obvious to NFL teams and he is likely to get drafted in the first 2 rounds.

Jace Sternberger had a ridiculously productive 2018, whether you look at raw stats or PFF grade. But he has below average athleticism, and an unusual career path which involved a transfer and almost no production before this year. The fact that he is generally seen as a 3rd rounder seems like a pretty strong endorsement from NFL, which makes his unusual path less concerning. And his athletic numbers are in a similar ballpark to guys like Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Jermichael Finley, and Kyle Rudolph; they're a negative but not a dealbreaker. So I'm pretty excited about him, relative to most NFL 3rd rounders, especially in TE premium leagues (which are less dependent on upside).

Caleb Wilson is an unusually extreme case: he had tons of production, he has good speed, he has a great PFF grade, and scouting reports are scathing. There is also an unusually large mismatch between his 40 time (very good) and his other drills (not so good). I'm going to like him more than his draft position, but if he falls to rd5 as projected then it'll be hard to see him as more than a flier. The odds don't seem great, but maybe he's the next George Kittle.

The rest of the TE class doesn't look particularly notable to me, although if someone in the next batch (Warring, Knox, Moreau, Oliver, Conrad) gets drafted in the first 3 rounds or so then he'll be worth considering. Oliver looks to have the best chance of getting drafted then - he had averageish size/athleticism (highlighted by a 4.63 forty) and averageish production (good totals, bad YPT, not many TDs).

Edited by ZWK

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12 hours ago, ZWK said:

The rest of the TE class doesn't look particularly notable to me, although if someone in the next batch (Warring, Knox, Moreau, Oliver, Conrad) gets drafted in the first 3 rounds or so then he'll be worth considering. 

Those are 3 of my favorite sleeper TE's.  The profiles of Warring, Knox, and Moreau make for quite appealing prospect's.  I don't know about San Diego State (Warring) and their scheme, do they use TE's a lot?  If not then he might be the best TE sleeper.  Knox on the other hand, why would they use him when they have Metcalf, Brown, Lodge in 3WR sets almost every play?  Same with Moreau in LSU's offense, if they're still a team that has one of the worst track records for QB's and passing ability, then he might be a better pro than college player.  I really know nothing about Oliver or Conrad but I was glad to see those other 3 mentioned.  It's easy to see why these guys are under the radar but they could pay off huge. 

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Warring, Knox, and Moreau never reached 400 receiving yards or 4 receiving TDs in a season.

It's pretty rare for a TE to have much NFL success after having that little college production. TEs who never reached 400 receiving yards in a college season: Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Kyle Rudolph, Owen Daniels, Jordan Cameron.

Rudolph & Daniels had pretty decent receiving totals on an adjusted basis. Rudolph had 328 in 6 games, Daniels had 391 yards on a Wisconsin team that only threw for 2006 (19.5% market share).

Graham & Cameron were basketball players who had weird college careers. They were also both elite athletes (e.g., sub 4.55 forty).

That leaves Kittle. He was also an elite athlete (sub 4.55), and he had 6 TDs and 12.5 YPT in 2015 which flashed much more receiving potential than any of Warring, Knox, and Moreau have shown.

Some other fun stats:

Dawson Knox never scored a touchdown in college.

Kahale Warring has a career 13.5% drop rate.

Foster Moreau was 6th on his team in receiving yards this year.

I guess Moreau has the best chance of the three, but I don't see much to get excited about with any of them.

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Top 15 edge rushers according to my formula (with minor changes since I posted a comparison with previous draft classes):
Josh Allen    Kentucky
Montez Sweat    Miss St
Brian Burns    FSU
Ben Banogu    TCU
Nick Bosa    Ohio State
Sutton Smith    N Illinois
Porter Gustin    USC
Maxx Crosby    E Mich
Anthony Nelson    Iowa
Charles Omenihu    Texas
Chase Winovich    Michigan
Oshane Ximines    ODU
Clelin Ferrell    Clemson
Quinnen Williams    Alabama    *
Malik Carney    N Carolina

Top 15 edge rushers according to Football Outsiders' SackSEER rating:
Brian Burns    Florida State
Montez Sweat    Mississippi State
John Cominsky    Charleston   *
Josh Allen    Kentucky
Ben Banogu    Texas Christian
Porter Gustin    USC
Anthony Nelson    Iowa
Oshane Ximines    Old Dominion
Maxx Crosby    Eastern Michigan
Rashan Gary    Michigan
Zach Allen    Boston College
Nick Bosa    Ohio State
Jordan Brailford    Oklahoma State
Justin Hollins    Oregon
Jamal Davis    Akron

* Football Outsiders didn't run the stats for Quinnen Williams since he's actually an interior lineman, and I didn't run the stats for John Cominsky since he's non-FBS.

A lot of agreement, both on some highly regarded top prospects (Allen, Burns, Sweat) and on mid-to-late round guys (Banogu, Gustin, Crosby, Nelson). Although FO is not quite as high as on Josh Allen, and their formula has Bosa down even farther than I do.

PFF does love both Bosa and Josh Allen. Among the later round guys, they're especially high on Maxx Crosby & Anthony Nelson.

This is looking like a strong edge rusher class, in terms of both high-end talent at the top and depth.

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21 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Those are 3 of my favorite sleeper TE's.  The profiles of Warring, Knox, and Moreau make for quite appealing prospect's.  I don't know about San Diego State (Warring) and their scheme, do they use TE's a lot?  If not then he might be the best TE sleeper.  Knox on the other hand, why would they use him when they have Metcalf, Brown, Lodge in 3WR sets almost every play?  Same with Moreau in LSU's offense, if they're still a team that has one of the worst track records for QB's and passing ability, then he might be a better pro than college player.  I really know nothing about Oliver or Conrad but I was glad to see those other 3 mentioned.  It's easy to see why these guys are under the radar but they could pay off huge. 

I'm a huge Josh Oliver fan. I have him as TE5, and could argue him as high as TE3, as I'm not a big Irv Smith fan, and Sternberger has a low ceiling, though a high floor. Oliver has decent size(6-4 250) and really good quicks(4.63, 4.47, 7.21) he's basically the same athlete as Smith, but bigger. Of course, San Jose State isn't Alabama, so that would be my biggest reason not to rank Oliver higher. Oliver also spent a lot of time playing in the slot, or even split out wide, which I felt showcased his ability to make contested catches, which he may be the best TE in the class at. 

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On 4/22/2019 at 1:33 PM, Zyphros said:

Those are 3 of my favorite sleeper TE's.  The profiles of Warring, Knox, and Moreau make for quite appealing prospect's.  I don't know about San Diego State (Warring) and their scheme, do they use TE's a lot?  If not then he might be the best TE sleeper.  Knox on the other hand, why would they use him when they have Metcalf, Brown, Lodge in 3WR sets almost every play?  Same with Moreau in LSU's offense, if they're still a team that has one of the worst track records for QB's and passing ability, then he might be a better pro than college player.  I really know nothing about Oliver or Conrad but I was glad to see those other 3 mentioned.  It's easy to see why these guys are under the radar but they could pay off huge. 

I know Warring's production was low but that offense doesn't throw the ball. Warring has a breakout age of 20.4 (71st percentile) and 19.6% dominator (60th percentile) so in the context of the SD State offense, he was productive and from a pretty young age for TE. On top of that, he is a high-level athlete for the TE position. I like his chances to develop in a couple of years.

Warring was SD State's leader in receptions and receiving TDs in 2018. He was 3rd in receptions and led the team in receiving TDs in 2017.

Edited by Ilov80s
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