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Gottabesweet

Week 12 Buy Low/ Sell High (Week 14-16) PLAYOFF targets

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27 minutes ago, rockaction said:

True. I put them (he and Powell) on the block waiting for a nibble, so I have nothing concrete to speak of about what I'd take for him/them. 

Part of me also thinks rostering the entire backfield is an advantage, but they're a true timeshare right now and taking up a valuable roster spot in a shorter bench, standard league (we shaved from sixteen teams to twelve and kept the same benches, for some reason). I may just hold and wait until one wears down or gets dinged up, which could very well happen at some point. 

Another issue is that Powell is running a little better than Crowell right now and they're both seeing stacked boxes, from what I can tell. Cleveland was able to basically dare Darnold to beat them, and the coaching staff of the Jets refused to loosen the leash even a little. It was bad. SSND, I think, said they might break the record that game for horizontal yards in the air, which kind of cracked me up. 

In addition to all of that, our league is also not that active a league in terms of trades. The people in the league that were really active got a bit frustrated and left, leaving the inactive owners. So...there's also that to factor in. 

But I agree with you, Crowell is a sell high even though he's averaging 14.267 standard. 

i can't imagine owning both however it could be a boon if either Powell or Crowell get hurt because the Jets clearly intend to utilize their RBs.

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12 minutes ago, Chaka said:

i can't imagine owning both however it could be a boon if either Powell or Crowell get hurt because the Jets clearly intend to utilize their RBs.

Yeah, I sort of drafted into a timeshare in this league hoping that it would shake out. I'd drafted early in preseason in Summerpalooza over in the FFA, picked Crowell as the natural starter, but then was surprised when in dress rehearsal Powell got starter snaps and starter play. So that, I think, got me thinking about him and I wound up with him and Crowell late in my main league. Powell is an underrated back (Jets homer here) and has been stuck behind guys he shouldn't have been stuck behind for years now, as NYRAGE will tell you. They (the two backs) are so identical organizationally that they draw the same salary and the club has the option of getting out from under both contracts after this year (I believe Crowell would be $2M dead cap space, but they'd save $4M annually for the next three years), so it's pretty clear that the Jets franchise values these guys similarly. It's Powell's contract year, but in essence, Crowell's too. The big difference is that Powell is 29, Crowell 25.  

So that's why you're seeing this. They're really viewed as interchangeable by management and staff, and unless one does get dinged -- which I'm not hoping for, but that is an eventual reality of a tough season -- they're going to hamper each other's value all season. It'll be like Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman lite (when those two are healthy) with less speed and talent. 

So, anyway, yeah, there's a thread all about it that NYRAGE, Dr. Octopus, and I all do as Jets guys.  

Edited by rockaction

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, I sort of drafted into a timeshare in this league hoping that it would shake out. I'd drafted early in preseason in Summerpalooza over in the FFA, picked Crowell as the natural starter, but then was surprised when in dress rehearsal Powell got starter snaps and starter play. So that, I think, got me thinking about him and I wound up with him and Crowell late in my main league. Powell is an underrated back (Jets homer here) and has been stuck behind guys he shouldn't have been stuck behind for years now, as NYRAGE will tell you. They (the two backs) are so identical organizationally that they draw the same salary and the club has the option of getting out from under both contracts after this year (I believe Crowell would be $2M dead cap space, but they'd save $4M annually for the next three), so it's pretty clear that the Jets franchise values these guys similarly. It's Powell's contract year, but in essence, Crowell's too. 

So that's why you're seeing this. They're really viewed as interchangeable by management and staff, and unless one does get dinged -- which I'm not hoping for, but that is an eventual reality of a tough season -- they're going to hamper each other's value all season. It'll be like Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman lite (when those two are healthy) with less speed and talent. 

So, anyway, yeah, there's a thread all about it that NYRAGE, Dr. Octopus, and I all do as Jets guys.  

I like Powell a lot and agree with your assessment. I also like Crowell a lot. Frankly I think if you put Powell/Crowell in Atlanta they outperform Freeman/Coleman. I have always viewed Freeman in particular as overrated and benefiting from scheme and surrounding talent more than most RBs.

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I like Robert Woods as a buy low and Lockett as a sell high. Just following the targets there and how both offenses are trending.

 

Conner is a nice sell high option too at this point. I'd try to dump him sooner rather than later.......

 

Edited by Milkman

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16 hours ago, Chaka said:

I would consider selling high on Crowell. I worry that the league has already figured out Darnold and Enunwa and the supporting cast still doesn't appear that strong. Plus Crow is in a full blown timeshare so he is dependent on big plays and TDs (which may be sparse on this team).

I am a big fan of Crowell, not sure why the Browns preferred Hyde to be honest, but IMO he may have peaked in 2018.

Feels like Powell is the RB to own there.

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6 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

Feels like Powell is the RB to own there.

You should check out our thread about B. Powell and I. Crowell. We're kind of curating it. 

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/769359-jets-rb-who-should-start/

Feels like Powell is definitely the better runner right now, but Bowles might be fired tomorrow, according to Roto. Not a steady situation. Like I said, both runners can be cut next year with the same essential salary, though Crowell has a bigger cap hit by a few mil. Crowell - 25, Powell - 29. Crowell, better popular rep. Powell, better CoP back.  

Edited by rockaction
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buy low on Gronk? - Doubled all last night, should have some WR help coming his way soon.  One good game, one poor, and one average.

Anyone going after Fournette this week as well?

I might try for Keenan Allen.

I also might try to sell high on Thielen or Landry with getting massive amounts of targets.

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1 minute ago, Gottabesweet said:

I also might try to sell high on Thielen or Landry with getting massive amounts of targets.

I don't see why these guys target shares should go down...

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1 minute ago, Avery said:

I don't see why these guys target shares should go down...

I feel like once Cook gets back, Thielen will have a few stinkers when Diggs get going.

Landry's targets will always be there but both or one and something else could be used to go after a top 8 guy.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

I feel like once Cook gets back, Thielen will have a few stinkers when Diggs get going.

Landry's targets will always be there but both or one and something else could be used to go after a top 8 guy.

 

 

Have to agree on Landry. I think he only goes up from here. He’s a hold for me. Targets aren’t going anywhere and with Baker and that defense and positive field position I can see TDs to come. 

Fournette I’m avoiding. As I said in another thread I don’t want to have to hold my breath every week. 

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was offered Keenan Allen for Thielen and Cooper in a PPR league.

Not sure about it.  Allen seems banged up, already own Rivers, Gordon, and Ekeler in a short bench. However Allen is a good buy low target as his schedule has the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs.

Thielen has 32-338-1 already however has the Rams, Eagles, Lions (Slay) x2, Dolphins left.

 

Edited by Gottabesweet

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4 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

was offered Keenan Allen for Thielen and Cooper in a PPR league.

Not sure about it.  Allen seems banged up, already own Rivers, Gordon, and Ekeler in a short bench. However Allen is a good buy low target as his schedule has the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs.

Thielen has 32-338-1 already however has the Rams, Eagles, Lions (Slay) x2, Dolphins left.

 

Depends on how you view Cooper.  Personally, I think he isn't that good and you can easily replace him.  Allen had a really tough matchup yesterday and LAC got up on the Bills early in week 2.  We see that the LAC defense isn't as good as initially thought (Goff shredded them yesterday). 

It's a tough call and I can see it both ways here.  I like Allen better than Thielen going forward, but it's close.  I would probably stay put and see if Cooper can ever turn it around, especially since you have Rivers, Gordon and Ekeler.

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3 minutes ago, fightingillini said:

Depends on how you view Cooper.  Personally, I think he isn't that good and you can easily replace him.  Allen had a really tough matchup yesterday and LAC got up on the Bills early in week 2.  We see that the LAC defense isn't as good as initially thought (Goff shredded them yesterday). 

It's a tough call and I can see it both ways here.  I like Allen better than Thielen going forward, but it's close.  I would probably stay put and see if Cooper can ever turn it around, especially since you have Rivers, Gordon and Ekeler.

I'm curious how the Chargers are when Bosa comes back, if anything it'll get Rivers the ball back quicker. Goff had some long drives yesterday.

It's basically figuring out which starting lineup you like more.

Thielen, Landry, Cooper  (Corey Davis bench)

Allen, Landry, Davis  (replacement level:  Shepard, Crowder, Parker, Nelson, Boyd, Godwin)

Plenty of short bench options. 

@fightingillini

Edited by Gottabesweet

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51 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

was offered Keenan Allen for Thielen and Cooper in a PPR league.

Not sure about it.  Allen seems banged up, already own Rivers, Gordon, and Ekeler in a short bench. However Allen is a good buy low target as his schedule has the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs.

Thielen has 32-338-1 already however has the Rams, Eagles, Lions (Slay) x2, Dolphins left.

 

That’s tough. I’m just ignoring the fact that Cooper is there altogether. Since you are already quite invested in LAC I would lean standing pat. Thielen and Allen are about as close as it gets. HOWEVER, if you can clown someone into giving you ANYTHINF worthwhile for Cooper I would do it. But that’s a hard sell. 

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

was offered Keenan Allen for Thielen and Cooper in a PPR league.

Not sure about it.  Allen seems banged up, already own Rivers, Gordon, and Ekeler in a short bench. However Allen is a good buy low target as his schedule has the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs.

Thielen has 32-338-1 already however has the Rams, Eagles, Lions (Slay) x2, Dolphins left.

 

Rams game for Thielen may have just got easier with Peters now out at DB on Thursday. 

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54 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

That’s tough. I’m just ignoring the fact that Cooper is there altogether. Since you are already quite invested in LAC I would lean standing pat. Thielen and Allen are about as close as it gets. HOWEVER, if you can clown someone into giving you ANYTHINF worthwhile for Cooper I would do it. But that’s a hard sell. 

Agree, I'm thinking Landry/Cooper for an upgrade would be the better decision.

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1 minute ago, G-King said:

Rams game for Thielen may have just got easier with Peters now out at DB on Thursday. 

Any word on Talib?  How do teams cover Diggs/Thielen.  The Bills best corner Tre White shadowed Diggs. (I think he only had 4 catches for small yardage)

Diggs normally draw the 1?

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I've got Mike Williams and Calvin Ridley both as bench players.  Hoping I can trade one of them for a good RB.  Any thoughts on their value?  There's a team that won't have a win yet that has McCaffrey and few WRs, was going to see if he'd be interested.  Thinking I'll need to add another player to it though.

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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I've got Mike Williams and Calvin Ridley both as bench players.  Hoping I can trade one of them for a good RB.  Any thoughts on their value?  There's a team that won't have a win yet that has McCaffrey and few WRs, was going to see if he'd be interested.  Thinking I'll need to add another player to it though.

You’d have to pry CMC from my cold, dead fingers. Unless it’s standard then maybe :P

Edited by Elevencents
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Just now, Elevencents said:

You’d have to pry CMC from my cold, dead fingers. Unless it’s standard then maybe :P

I've been trying to find last place teams hoping they'll be desperate to make a trade.  He's getting hit hard with this week's byes so I might try it.  We have double headers so he's going to be 0-6 after tonight and very likely will be 0-8 after week 4.  Tough to come back from that.

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I've been trying to find last place teams hoping they'll be desperate to make a trade.  He's getting hit hard with this week's byes so I might try it.  We have double headers so he's going to be 0-6 after tonight and very likely will be 0-8 after week 4.  Tough to come back from that.

Even tougher after that trade.  Hard pass.

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Just now, Short Corner said:

Even tougher after that trade.  Hard pass.

I offered Chris Carson and Calvin Ridley.  Most of his RBs are on bye week 4 so he needs one to start and he needs WRs help.  It's worth a shot.

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Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

I offered Chris Carson and Calvin Ridley.  Most of his RBs are on bye week 4 so he needs one to start and he needs WRs help.  It's worth a shot.

Still a hard pass.  Guys were WW fodder a week ago.

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Just now, Short Corner said:

Still a hard pass.  Guys were WW fodder a week ago.

They were?  I drafted them both and have been on rosters in most leagues I'm in.  I drafted Calvin Ridley in almost every league and I'm glad I did.  His trade value should be fairly high right now.

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

They were?  I drafted them both and have been on rosters in most leagues I'm in.  I drafted Calvin Ridley in almost every league and I'm glad I did.  His trade value should be fairly high right now.

Yeah that isn't close. Good luck on that one.

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

They were?  I drafted them both and have been on rosters in most leagues I'm in.  I drafted Calvin Ridley in almost every league and I'm glad I did.  His trade value should be fairly high right now.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/770708-waiver-wire-gems-week-3/

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Hmmm...  They weren't on waivers in any of the 9 leagues I'm in.  One is a deep roster dynasty league so it makes the most sense there.

Congrats?

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Like I said, it's worth a try with the situation he's in.

You're right to try. But the other guy would be crazy to accept. Ridley and MW both were 3rd in snaps at the WR position on their own teams through 2 weeks and both play behind target hog WR1s. I'd definitely be trying to sell Ridley the hardest. Ryan just had his best game of the season in week 3. Last year he averaged 1.25 TDs/game. I imagine a lot of people will be chasing Ridley's week 3 points for the rest of the season. Will be interesting to see if either guy gets a bump in snaps in week 4.

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I was high on Kenyan Drake this season and considered him a buy low. But yesterday was a joke. Now, Drake only got five carries. But Gore got six. If this coaching staff continues to feed the ball to 100 year old Frank Gore, then they are idiots.

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45 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

You're right to try. But the other guy would be crazy to accept. Ridley and MW both were 3rd in snaps at the WR position on their own teams through 2 weeks and both play behind target hog WR1s. I'd definitely be trying to sell Ridley the hardest. Ryan just had his best game of the season in week 3. Last year he averaged 1.25 TDs/game. I imagine a lot of people will be chasing Ridley's week 3 points for the rest of the season. Will be interesting to see if either guy gets a bump in snaps in week 4.

100%. People are going to start slotting Ridley into their starting lineup and they will end up with higher points on their bench more often than not. Sell sell. 

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6 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I was high on Kenyan Drake this season and considered him a buy low. But yesterday was a joke. Now, Drake only got five carries. But Gore got six. If this coaching staff continues to feed the ball to 100 year old Frank Gore, then they are idiots.

So far, he's averaging 3.5 yards a carry and 4.7 yards per catch.

I don't doubt that he's more explosive than Gore, but the numbers so far don't blow Gore away.  Small sample size, certainly.  Still, I'm not holding my breath for huge things out of Drake at this point

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1 minute ago, jm192 said:

I don't doubt that he's more explosive than Gore, but the numbers so far don't blow Gore away.  

I'm not sure we can glean anything from five carries.

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8 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I'm not sure we can glean anything from five carries.

It's 39 touches over 3 games.  A couple big games could change it, but at a point, you've got to start getting concerned. 

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Anyone else thinking of dangling Mahomes to the Jimmy G owner? In my 14-team redraft, the Jimmy owner has DCook, Freeman, Tate, MJones and DJax. I think I could do OK streaming (current options are Tannehill, Dalton, Bortles, Flacco and the rookies), but I'm not sure there's anyone among that group of RBs/WRs that gets me really excited, particularly with the injuries to those RBs.

Just curious to hear if anyone else is considering it, and what you think a fair return is for him.

Edited by zftcg

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21 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Anyone else thinking of dangling Mahomes to the Jimmy G owner? In my 14-team redraft, the Jimmy owner has DCook, Freeman, Tate, MJones and DJax. I think I could do OK streaming (current options are Tannehill, Dalton, Bortles, Flacco and the rookies), but I'm not sure there's anyone among that group of RBs/WRs that gets me really excited, particularly with the injuries to those RBs.

Other than Cook is Mahomes worth dealing for any of those guys.  Who knows how long Freeman's out and the rest of those are JAG's.  I'm not trading Mahomes unless I can get a legit stud in return.  Yes he's not going to keep up this pace but the kid is talented and KC has a lousy defense.  Seems like a recipe for season long fantasy success to me.

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Only problem is the Jimmy G owner could be perfectly fine streaming too. Personally, I don’t think I would involve a WR1/2 or RB1/2 when it comes to a QB. They’re all so interchangeable in my eyes. Hell, I rolled out Tyrod the other week. 

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2 hours ago, G-King said:

Rams game for Thielen may have just got easier with Peters now out at DB on Thursday. 

And Talib….   Our secondary took a beating yesterday.  Viks are going to throw like crazy 

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2 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Any word on Talib?  How do teams cover Diggs/Thielen.  The Bills best corner Tre White shadowed Diggs. (I think he only had 4 catches for small yardage)

Diggs normally draw the 1?

Not officially but his after the game his injury was considered the worse of the 2.  He was in a boot with a crutch.  With Peters already called as 2 to 4 weeks I'm guessing that's the low end for Talib.

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9 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Only problem is the Jimmy G owner could be perfectly fine streaming too. Personally, I don’t think I would involve a WR1/2 or RB1/2 when it comes to a QB. They’re all so interchangeable in my eyes. Hell, I rolled out Tyrod the other week. 

This.

Depending on their backups/Waiver option.  QB is so strong across the board.

If you've got a good second option and someone wants to give you a high end WR or RB, you definitely do it.  But I don't think most players are going to be doing it.

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45 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Anyone else thinking of dangling Mahomes to the Jimmy G owner? In my 14-team redraft, the Jimmy owner has DCook, Freeman, Tate, MJones and DJax. I think I could do OK streaming (current options are Tannehill, Dalton, Bortles, Flacco and the rookies), but I'm not sure there's anyone among that group of RBs/WRs that gets me really excited, particularly with the injuries to those RBs.

Just curious to hear if anyone else is considering it, and what you think a fair return is for him.

Mahomes for D Cook straight up is probably a fair deal, I wouldn't do it.  And none of those other guys interest me.  I would want an elite player in return, and while I like Cook a lot, he's not an elite RB.  And who says the other owner would deal their best RB......he will stream the same guys and probably get the same production as Jimmy G.

Don't overthink it.  You hit the jackpot with Mahomes.  Ride him all the way to the playoffs, and hopefully the title.

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On 9/20/2018 at 11:27 AM, jdoggydogg said:

My buy low / sell high for week 2:

Buy low:

Andrew Luck, David Johnson, Kenyan Drake, Kareem Hunt, Jordan Howard, Odell Beckham, Kyle Rudolph

Sell high:

Josh Gordon, Desean Jackson, Will Dissly, Jared Cook

I think David Johnson is a good buy low candidate, but not sure what people think his value might be. What's a reasonable wide receiver to offer?

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5 hours ago, fightingillini said:

Mahomes for D Cook straight up is probably a fair deal, I wouldn't do it.  And none of those other guys interest me.  I would want an elite player in return, and while I like Cook a lot, he's not an elite RB.  And who says the other owner would deal their best RB......he will stream the same guys and probably get the same production as Jimmy G.

Don't overthink it.  You hit the jackpot with Mahomes.  Ride him all the way to the playoffs, and hopefully the title.

Funny how QB's are devalued during the draft but put up a few games and then they coomand a first round guy in return.

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11 minutes ago, Short Corner said:

Funny how QB's are devalued during the draft but put up a few games and then they coomand a first round guy in return.

I guess it depends on scoring - I've only ever played in larger 6pt TD leagues where QBs are pretty valuable even in a 1QB league, but I've never understood this blanket devaluing of them to the extent that they seem to be. In drafts, people routinely take players over QB who won't score as well and also won't have equivalent trade value in season. I know it's a question of value relative to the position, but it really helps your fantasy QB to have a high scoring QB. In my main league, 6 out of the top 10 overall scorers are QBs. 

As for Mahomes, I don't think I could pull the trigger on trading him for any player in dynasty right now, even in a 1QB league. You might say it's a no-brainer but he might redefine the position from a fantasy perspective and be a true cheat code/championship winner. 

Edited by RushHour

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