Gottabesweet

Week 7 Buy Low/ Sell High

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

At some point you sell low to get something before it turns worse. The Bills offensive line is a mess and will continue to be all season.  He has some PPR value if he can catch 4-5 passes a game but the WR's can't get enough separation so the flats and McCoy have been doubled. He was drafted in the early third in my one league and this team will be a mess and playing from behind often.

So you think 21 yards will be his best game of the season? They dont play Baltimore every week. Good luck with selling at his absolute lowest point. 

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26 minutes ago, Weebs210 said:

So you think 21 yards will be his best game of the season? They dont play Baltimore every week. Good luck with selling at his absolute lowest point. 

Yes because that’s exactly what I said, 21 yards is going to be his best game. SMDH.  

His line and game scripts will all be A LOT worse this year than last.  Sometimes you just have to cut bait and get what you can.  I don’t even own him but figured I’d advise as I’m a local.  This is a patch-work offensive line that’s center was forced to retire, and Pro Bowl guard went AWOL and retired  Duccasse, Groy and even Dawkins who showed promise have been beaten badly since June. 

Package a WR3 and McCoy for Mixon or something.  Plenty of creative ways to try and sell or you can ride him until after the Colts game and sell because they’ll be in evaluation mode come November.  He’s set to make another $11m next year so why waste the tread on his tires at 31 when you’re likely 4-6 win team.  

 

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5 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Yes because that’s exactly what I said, 21 yards is going to be his best game. SMDH.  

His line and game scripts will all be A LOT worse this year than last.  Sometimes you just have to cut bait and get what you can.  I don’t even own him but figured I’d advise as I’m a local.  This is a patch-work offensive line that’s center was forced to retire, and Pro Bowl guard went AWOL and retired  Duccasse, Groy and even Dawkins who showed promise have been beaten badly since June. 

Package a WR3 and McCoy for Mixon or something.  Plenty of creative ways to try and sell or you can ride him until after the Colts game and sell because they’ll be in evaluation mode come November.  He’s set to make another $11m next year so why waste the tread on his tires at 31 when you’re likely 4-6 win team.  

 

All im saying is he's a hold until he has a decent game. If you offered a wr3 and McCoy for Mixon you would get laughed out of the room right now. I guarantee he will have a decent game sooner rather then later. Luckily for me I don't have to start him anytime soon.

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3 hours ago, PhantomJB said:

Interesting. You think Baldwin's done?

He said he wouldn't be 100% for the season.  Then injured in the first game.

If someone's optimistic enough to give you a solid replacement--let them hang onto the hopes and dreams that he comes back strong.

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2 hours ago, Deamon said:

Buy Low: 

Collins- good usage, scoring opportunities just weren't there.  Dixon injured.  Look for lots more Collins going forward.
Henry- Something just tells me he's going to be used a lot more this week.  Lewis might move fully into a receiver role with Walker out.
Cooks- Totally in sync with Goff.  Threw at him deep a few times and drew PI calls.  Without those PI, he might have had a monster stat line.
Kelce- Teams are going to pay more attention to Hill now.  They have to.  Should open up some stuff in the middle of the field for Kelce.  He's too good to ignore him.


Sell High: 

Peterson- Maybe the most obvious one.  Had a monster game.  Will wear down and not make it through the year when he's getting 26 carries a game. 
Lynch- Really don't think this offense gets going much.  Only had 11 carries for 40 yards.  Got a TD though which inflated his points this week.
Fournette- Hope I'm wrong here as I own him.  But that injury scares me.  Still had a solid game while he was in, and value still should be very high.
 

Agree but i'd be inclined to wait a week or two. Has Colts at home next, can't see his value diminishing after that.

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2 hours ago, jtp1982 said:

Not a season changer but Alfred Morris could easily turn into a buy low RB2 by fantasy playoff time.  Especially in non-PPR.

Horrible stat line last week with a fumble when he should have had a TD, but per coaching staff that’s not being held against him as far as playing time/number of carries.

Do you have a link on the bolded - that was a concern coming off Sunday. 

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I wonder if Devonta Freeman is a buy low candidate now. Lots to be concerned about, and I think his value is capped, but could still contribute as an RB2.

He's likely more of a sell low like Baldwin, though -- see if you can get anything resembling their middle value (between their floor and ceiling) in return, and likely settling for a lesser player that might not have such wide variance in week to week scoring.

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24 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Do you have a link on the bolded - that was a concern coming off Sunday. 

Shanahan: “Yeah, he’s healthy. He was fine. We were planning on rotating those guys all game, and I know he did play after that. That definitely didn’t affect it; it had nothing to do with the fumble.”

https://www.ninersnation.com/2018/9/10/17840782/49ers-vikings-alfred-morris-fumble-explanation-humidity

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

 Package a WR3 and McCoy for Mixon or something.  Plenty of creative ways to try and sell or you can ride him until after the Colts game and sell because they’ll be in evaluation mode come November.  He’s set to make another $11m next year so why waste the tread on his tires at 31 when you’re likely 4-6 win team.  

 

That's madness if you think that's going to be enough.  If the draft was held again today, Mixon would be 2nd round and Shady probably 6th round.  a 6th and an 8th doesn't get you to a 2nd.

More likely you'd need to sell a strong wr2+mccoy to even sniff mixon type guys. 

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

That's madness if you think that's going to be enough.  If the draft was held again today, Mixon would be 2nd round and Shady probably 6th round.  a 6th and an 8th doesn't get you to a 2nd.

More likely you'd need to sell a strong wr2+mccoy to even sniff mixon type guys. 

That seems accurate.  Thielen/McCoy something like that.  

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Really tempted to try and move TY and ADP for Howard and Enunwa. Have Landry to slide into TY’s starting spot and Goodwin behind him for depth. I think Enunwa is perfectly fine as a bye week filler. Or Kupp but that could be reaching too far. The end game here is I can keep Howard in the 8th round next year. 

Kind of thinking out loud but also just showing what I think ADP could be worth for others who are considering. We have a pseudo keeper/dynasty system where you can keep multiple people 3 rounds up from where they were drafted the previous year. Always looking to improve in the future by moving hot players early. 

Edited by Elevencents

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4 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Pretty sure he's saying the opposite

Good, I was wondering lol

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4 hours ago, Deamon said:

Huh?  not sure how you gathered that by me saying I definitely wouldn't trade Collins for Henry.  In PPR Dynasty I'd rank them:

1. Collins
2. Henry/Ingram
4. Miller

I was unsure so thought I'd clarify. We're on the same page w/rankings then

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Was offered him for Anthony Miller and I politely said no by rejecting and I could use a TE in that league.  

If dynasty, I get why you'd say no as well as yes. I couldn't move him for anything all off season. He's my backup to Gronk, but I can start him in flex if need be. I'll gladly keep him if I can only get peanuts

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4 hours ago, -fish- said:

Does your league give points for knee injuries?

😄

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RBs are the easiest guys to unload for good value in my league so here are some RB sell high theories:

Isaiah Crowell: I think you either commit to him taking the starting job on an actually functional Jets offense this year or you sell high on a guy who posted a great stat line in garbage time, and with a lot of that production coming from one play.  Either way that’s not a repeatable game script most weeks.

James Conner: I wouldn’t be rushing to unload him unless the right offer is made, but definitely something to start thinking about/put some feelers out if he’s a luxury you grabbed off waivers. He’s gonna lose trade value fast after week 5.  Week 7 bye and he likely either won’t be on the field or will be in a RBBC during fantasy playoffs. 

James White: Best possible situation for White was week 1. No Edelman (who returns week 4), Sony Michel was out (could return any week) and White was a TD catch away from not posting PPR RB2 numbers.

 

Edited by jtp1982
Grammar

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Maybe buy low on Ingram?  Kamara was incredible, but the Saints have stated repeatedly that they want a split backfield...

 

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6 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

D was good last year, the number of turnovers they plucked will certainty pose for some big time regression.  They lost 2 interior lineman and the replacements have been terrible all summer.  

It's weird how so many people don't evaluate the entire team situation and likely game scripts when evaluating a player.  

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I'm buying low on Marlon Mack. I'm betting on volume here. He's only a marginal talent. 

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6 hours ago, jtp1982 said:

Not a season changer but Alfred Morris could easily turn into a buy low RB2 by fantasy playoff time.  Especially in non-PPR.

Horrible stat line last week with a fumble when he should have had a TD, but per coaching staff that’s not being held against him as far as playing time/number of carries.

trade FOR him now..

 

 

buy:

CJ Anderson

Edelman - going to catch a lot of balls this season.

Kenny Stills - legit deep threat and probable guy to take over Landry's receptions from last season..he looked really good on sunday 

Carlos Hyde - if you can get him, do so..easy schedule, the offense looks legit

Aaron Jones - I'm not 100% sold on Jamaal Williams as a starting NFL RB he looks like he's running in mud. he has another game to go as the starter and after he fails in that outing, the job goes back to Jones..

Chris Thompson - seriously, Peterson is going to rush for 1000 yards and keep up the 20+ carry/gm pace? no way in hell. he'll fizzle out by week 5..

Jameis Winston - will the real fitzmagic please stand up..please stand up.please stand up..he'll be here soon enough. guy plays well for a coiuple weeks, then throws 5 ints in one game. if this is what the TB offense is going to look like, Winston is going to look like D. Watson from last year - chucking it all over the place! BTW - that's exactly how Winston looked all preseason long.

Case Keenum.

Jordan Reed.

Alfred Morris - games against Det, Chiefs, Cards(2x) in 4 of next 6 weeks..they'll get that running game going.

 

 

Sell:

Josh Gordon - it's Landry's team

J. Mixon

B. Powell - every stinkin year we say he's a sleeper, he's a breakthough player waiting to happen.and every year he wets the bed after 3-4 really good games - he ALWAYS gets hurt. sell now.

D. Freeman - you just get the feeling this is the year the T. Coleman truthers have been waiting for.

J. Cook classic sell high guy.

 

Edited by Tanner9919
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I don’t think Cook is a sell high. Cooper is terrible and Carr is scared in the pocket.  He is his safety blanket and a beast with the ball.  I see top 5 TE upside this year. 

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5 minutes ago, zoonation said:

I don’t think Cook is a sell high. Cooper is terrible and Carr is scared in the pocket.  He is his safety blanket and a beast with the ball.  I see top 5 TE upside this year. 

Two mistakes in my life have taught me patience.  

Not letting the beer goggles wear off when I picked up a woman and not letting the week one hype train wear off when I picked up Jared Cook.

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2 hours ago, JIMGET said:

Maybe buy low on Ingram?  Kamara was incredible, but the Saints have stated repeatedly that they want a split backfield...

 

I don't understand why you'd be able to buy low here. Owners drafted him knowing he was going to miss a month. The suspension was baked into his cost. He's now one week closer to returning. His price should be higher than it was last week. 

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Here's a theory I'm toying with. 

Grab Enunwa off the wire and sell high to a WR needy team. I think Enunwa will definitely contribute through the season but his value likely takes a hit with Kearse coming back to the field.

A downside is that other owners may not give you solid value for a guy you got on the wire, but Week 1 overreaction can be an influencing factor in your favor.

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Buy Dalvin Cook, he looked like the same guy from last year. The only reason I'm hesitant is because the OL looked shaky but he looked deadly catching passes.

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1 hour ago, TripItUp said:

Get Michel now before he starts winning leagues.

I'd like to think you are right but in reality this is very up in the air if he is even going to be a productive fantasy player this year.

Possibly a boom or bust situation and I have no idea what is going with the Pats in this case.

If you aren't giving up much or have an easy drop, sure take a flyer but its a flyer.

Edited by Jefferson the Caregiver
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14 minutes ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

I'd like to think you are right but in reality this is very up in the air if he is even going to be a productive fantasy player this year.

Possibly a boom or bust situation and I have no idea what is going with the Pats in this case.

If you aren't giving up much or have an easy drop, sure take a flyer but its a flyer.

Have to agree. With Hill out and Burkhead looking “eh” I think the situation has improved for Michel. But it’s still NE so who knows. For the right price I would take that gamble but the right price has to be pretty low. 

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How high do I have to be, exactly? :unsure:

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2 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Get Michel now before he starts winning leagues.

That backfield is a cluster even with Hill out. 

I dealt Burkhead early in one league, and have White as a RB4/Flex in another.

the only one I trust for a weekly floor is White, especially when Michel comes back. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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ADP and TY offered for Kupp and Howard. We’ll see what happens. If he denies will likely counter with Enunwa instead of Kupp. Enunwa would be my WR5/6 so I could eat the downgrade at WR. 

Edited by Elevencents

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8 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

ADP and TY offered for Kupp and Howard. We’ll see what happens. If he denies will likely counter with Enunwa instead of Kupp. Enunwa would be my WR5/6 so I could eat the downgrade at WR. 

Can’t see anyone going for that. It’s too soon after the draft, and Howard looked pretty good. Especially with his receptions. 

And ADP was just a late round pick for a reason. Even after his 11 ,carry 50-something day I picked him in the late rounds - everyone groaned & said “good luck getting 8 games”.

perception-wise this is a tough offer. I  would angrily reject. lol But hey, best of luck! 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Can’t see anyone going for that. It’s too soon after the draft, and Howard looked pretty good. Especially with his receptions. 

And ADP was just a late round pick for a reason. Even after his 11 ,carry 50-something day I picked him in the late rounds - everyone groaned & said “good luck getting 8 games”.

perception-wise this is a tough offer. I  would angrily reject. lol But hey, best of luck! 

We average one trade per season basically so I’m trying to stir the pot, haha. Oh and most important note, this offer is out to a new member of our 12 year league who showed up to the draft with nothing but a pen and did not research. Not out of the realm of possibility!

Edited by Elevencents
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6 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

trade FOR him now..

 

 

buy:

CJ Anderson

Edelman - going to catch a lot of balls this season.

Kenny Stills - legit deep threat and probable guy to take over Landry's receptions from last season..he looked really good on sunday 

Carlos Hyde - if you can get him, do so..easy schedule, the offense looks legit

Aaron Jones - I'm not 100% sold on Jamaal Williams as a starting NFL RB he looks like he's running in mud. he has another game to go as the starter and after he fails in that outing, the job goes back to Jones..

Chris Thompson - seriously, Peterson is going to rush for 1000 yards and keep up the 20+ carry/gm pace? no way in hell. he'll fizzle out by week 5..

Jameis Winston - will the real fitzmagic please stand up..please stand up.please stand up..he'll be here soon enough. guy plays well for a coiuple weeks, then throws 5 ints in one game. if this is what the TB offense is going to look like, Winston is going to look like D. Watson from last year - chucking it all over the place! BTW - that's exactly how Winston looked all preseason long.

Case Keenum.

Jordan Reed.

Alfred Morris - games against Det, Chiefs, Cards(2x) in 4 of next 6 weeks..they'll get that running game going.

 

 

Sell:

Josh Gordon - it's Landry's team

J. Mixon

B. Powell - every stinkin year we say he's a sleeper, he's a breakthough player waiting to happen.and every year he wets the bed after 3-4 really good games - he ALWAYS gets hurt. sell now.

D. Freeman - you just get the feeling this is the year the T. Coleman truthers have been waiting for.

J. Cook classic sell high guy.

 

Gordon is a sell high LOL

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5 hours ago, Jefferson the Caregiver said:

I'd like to think you are right but in reality this is very up in the air if he is even going to be a productive fantasy player this year.

Possibly a boom or bust situation and I have no idea what is going with the Pats in this case.

If you aren't giving up much or have an easy drop, sure take a flyer but its a flyer.

The kid has recurring knee issues and missed a ton of work in the Pre-season. He’s far from a sure thing 

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Don't know what I did (bought low or sold high) but I just traded for Amari. Gave up Robby Anderson and Sterling and got Cooper and DeSean Jackson.

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12 hours ago, jtp1982 said:

RBs are the easiest guys to unload for good value in my league so here are some RB sell high theories:

Isaiah Crowell: I think you either commit to him taking the starting job on an actually functional Jets offense this year or you sell high on a guy who posted a great stat line in garbage time, and with a lot of that production coming from one play.  Either way that’s not a repeatable game script most weeks.

James Conner: I wouldn’t be rushing to unload him unless the right offer is made, but definitely something to start thinking about/put some feelers out if he’s a luxury you grabbed off waivers. He’s gonna lose trade value fast after week 5.  Week 7 bye and he likely either won’t be on the field or will be in a RBBC during fantasy playoffs. 

James White: Best possible situation for White was week 1. No Edelman (who returns week 4), Sony Michel was out (could return any week) and White was a TD catch away from not posting PPR RB2 numbers.

 

Conner was just traded for Diggs last night to the Bell owner in my one league.

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9 hours ago, Hilts said:

I don't understand why you'd be able to buy low here. Owners drafted him knowing he was going to miss a month. The suspension was baked into his cost. He's now one week closer to returning. His price should be higher than it was last week. 

I'm a Ingram owner. Each week I have him his price goes up.  Was offered Marvin Jones for him yesterday from the Kamara owner.  He rejected but "thought about" for awhile on accepting my   Ingram/Thielen/Funchess for K. Allen/Marvin Jones offer.

He also has JUJU and I thought about trying Ingram for JuJu but each week that goes by Ingram climbs closer to JuJu in the FBG's top 200 forward.

Ingram is at right around 172.5 PPR points ROS (14.4 PPG) which is RB16 each week he in theory on suspension should climb a few spots

JuJu is 14.8 PPG

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7 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Can’t see anyone going for that. It’s too soon after the draft, and Howard looked pretty good. Especially with his receptions. 

And ADP was just a late round pick for a reason. Even after his 11 ,carry 50-something day I picked him in the late rounds - everyone groaned & said “good luck getting 8 games”.

perception-wise this is a tough offer. I  would angrily reject. lol But hey, best of luck! 

He accepted, lol. 

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Well done Elevencents.

I may offer:  Thielen/Cooper/Ingram for K. Allen/ M. Jones and his choice of Burkhead/Cohen but unsure myself.

@Hot Sauce Guy

I love this thread because people throw out ideas and other people end up making trades because of it.

 

Edited by Gottabesweet
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