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2018 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

So I did a thing in my spreadsheet where I attempted to rank handcuffs based on opportunity, talent, their offense (taking into account an injury to starting RB) and OL (run blocking). I weighted opportunity twice as heavily as every category. The scale is from 1-5.

It's pretty subjective, I'll be wrong somewhere but at least I gave it a shot. It'd be cool if people could point out where I may be wrong (especially when it comes to OLs).

It also is probably missing some players as it's hard to include players who split carries. There are also some more obscure handcuffs I could add like Cannon (NYJ), Newsome (LAC), Boone (already added him) and etc. 
Awesome stuff.  In the spreadsheet, should B Allen be for BAL, not BUF?  I assume that's Buck, not someone else on BUF?

 
Has Murphy definitely surpassed Ivory?
Yeah most definitely, you can see it in the spreadsheet. But Murphy just doesn't check off any of the boxes that would make me feel compelled to stash him. If McCoy went down, I'm sure Ivory would still see some work, I don't consider Murphy to be particularly talented (although I do like what I've seen) and BUF's offense and OL are the worst in the league. 

 
He's probably rostered in most leagues already, but Latavius Murray has value now and if something happens to Cook he'd put up some nice numbers.
If Cook continues to take 80% of the snaps, I could easily see him being dropped by a non-Cook owner.

That said, my top 5 would be

1. Spencer Ware

2. Latavius Murray

3. Aaron Jones

4. T. J. Yeldon

5. C. J. Anderson

 
Latavius jumps up the list - for now

ETA:  early reports were hamstring on Cook - now called cramp.  Worth monitoring

 
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In 2016 and 2017 we had a thread that folks seemed to find valuable so I am starting another version for 2018 - it's a living, ongoing list of potential King Makers - the idea is to be PREEMPTIVE on RBs most likely sitting on the Waiver Wire (depending upon league size, sharks or guppies, etc.).  The definition of this thread is generally re-draft.

Please note that this list is being updated every week on subsequent pages of this thread

I have ranked per @SameSongNDance's spreadsheet contribution Posted Friday at 01:48 PM

Also, I have split the list into two:  King Makers and Honorable Mentions

To paraphrase @TZMarkie from 2016: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys"

I don't have time to watch film and I only follow pros so I am dependent upon the opinions of others.  I am going to give the list a jump start by plagiarizing content various sites.

Candidates for Season Changing RBs for re-draft going forward - Here is a Post-Week-2 list, ranked based on @SameSongNDance's spreadsheet:

  • KCC - Spencer Ware deserves a prominent position in this thread.  Potential RB1 in that KC offense if Hunt goes down <-- per @davearm ... and per @chad in Indy: "Spencer Ware as mentioned above would be my #1 home run"
  • LAC - Ekeler - "Ekeler is a high-end handcuff" per @MindBomb  
  • PHI - Clement becomes the guy if Ajayi goes down IMO <-- per @Buck Bradcanon
  • BAL - maybe Buck Allen now that Kenneth Dixon is on IR and out of the way and Collins keeps fumbling <-- per @Ted Lange as your Bartender
  • DAL - Rod Smith - @zamboni stated "break glass in case of emergency" handcuff guys that could be very effective three-down backs with a big workload in case of injury"... while @davearm  adds: "what can we really expect to get out of Rod Smith in that Dallas offense?  They'd be Buffalo bad at that point"
  • LAR - Brown - Brown deserve to be on the watch list b/c God forbid an injury happens to Gurley <-- per @4th and Inches ... and per @Football Jones  : "A good what-if RB I like is Malcolm Brown. The Rams have a very good offense so if Gurley goes down"
  • NE - S Michel - if he is somehow available in your league
  • CIN - Geo Bernard - suggested by @cloppbeast
  • DEN - P. Lindsay - "(one of the) guys that should be added now" per @The Dude
  • MIN - L. Murray - MIN - Latavius Murray has value now and if something happens to Cook <-- per @cap'n grunge
  • PIT - Jaylen Samuels - Samuels is on my radar - he's currently 2nd on the Steelers depth chart <-- per @Steeler and @Football Jones adds:   "I also like Jaylen Samuels long-term despite how good Conner looked in week 1"
  • JAC - T.J. Yeldon -
  • ATL - Ito Smith -
  • ARI - Chase Edmonds - suggested by @Buck Bradcanon while @zamboni adds "included in ... break glass in case of emergency handcuff guys"
  • GB - A Jones - "(one of the) guys that should be added now" per @The Dude ... and @Dr. Dan adds this link:  Aaron Jones v Dalvin Cook
  • LAR - John Kelly - @zamboni stated "break glass in case of emergency" handcuff guys that could be very effective three-down backs with a big workload in case of injury"
Honorable Mentions

  • PIT - S. Ridley -
  • MIA - Frank Gore -
  • NO - Mike Gillislee -
  • HOU - A. Blue -
  • DEN - D. Booker -
  • CAR - CJ Anderson - could be available and would get a ton of work if CMc missed any time <-- per @Snorkelson
  • TBB - Jacquizz Rodgers -
  • CHI - Benny Cunningham -
  • GBP - T. Montgomery -
  • CLE - N. Chubb -
  • NYG - Wayne Gallman - what happens if Saquon Barkley misses time?  Wayne Gallman? Jonathan Stewart? Shane Smith? <-- per @CaptainJT
  • OAK - Doug Martin - suggested by @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • OAK - J. Richard - suggested per @cloppbeast while @Stompin' Tom Connors writes :  "Not a lottery ticket RB, IMHO.  Richard's role and value doesn't change a bit based on the primary back, Lynch, being out.  And, FWIW, I think he has value in redraft PPR as it stands right now, especially against stout run Ds."
  • WAS - Sam Perine -
  • MIN - Mike Boone -
  • NYG - Jonathan Stewart -
  • WAS - Robert Kelley -
  • MIA - Kalen Ballage -
  • TEN - David Fluellen -
  • BUF - Marcus Murphy (note: last RB on SSND's list) - Maybe more of a long shot but I like Murphy in Buf. Good preseason and seems to be #2 on the depth chart now <-- per @dehaven123  ... "Currently making room for him in dynasty" <-- per @Ray Barboni   ... Murphy might be my #1 "dart" RB" <-- per @Football Jones
  • GB - Darius Jackson - per @Dr. Dan : "If Jones doesn't perform as expected, and/or gets hurt, Jackson is such an elite athlete he could take over. I could see him being possibly the best athlete at RB on the team right now"... while @Ilov80s adds:  "That could be interesting. He is basically Christine Michael minus the hype"
  • SF - Which back to own?  Breida? Morris?  While they both may be rostered in most leagues, a valuable question is which to own going forward?  It's Shanahan after all.  Please visit my thread on this topic here:  Breida v Morris Which to Own?
  • NE - Ralph Webb -
  • NE - James Develin -
  • FA - Darkwa - suggested by @msudaisy26
  • IND - Himes
  • SEA - Penny - if impatient owners have dropped him
  • DET - Abdullah due to the possibility of him being traded
  • PHI - Sproles 
  • JAC - Corey Grant
  • FA - Devante Mays
  • TBB - R Jones
  • JAC - Grant per @DBDynasty
  • BAL - De'Lance Turner. A Collins fumble away from getting a lot of work <-- per @Jed
  • BUF - Ivory - per @SameSongNDance : "If McCoy went down, I'm sure Ivory would still see some work, I don't consider Murphy to be particularly talented (although I do like what I've seen) and BUF's offense and OL are the worst in the league"
  • DET - Keryon Johnson <-- per @champ23
  • NYG -  Jonathan Stewart/Shane Smith/Wayne Gallman - what happens if Saquon Barkley misses time?  Wayne Gallman? Jonathan Stewart? Shane Smith? <-- per @CaptainJT
  • WAS - Someone on Washington after AP wears down? <-- per @Snorkelson  
Thoughts?  Opinions?

P.S. I want to give a shout out to @SameSongNDance for starting this annual tradition back in 2016!

P.S.S. I want to give a shout out to @Mr. Irrelevant on his excellent thread 2017 Trends that could repeat in 2018.

 
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Latavius jumps up the list - for now

ETA:  early reports were hamstring on Cook - now called cramp.  Worth monitoring
I have Cook and I'm about thisclose to cutting the cord and letting him go. Dude is starting to remind me of ANOTHER Vikings RB named Robert Smith.incredibly talented, fastest guy this side of Carl Lewis, but made of glass..can't deal with having to look at the injury report every single DAY of the NFL season..did he get hurt in practice today? did he slip in the shower and break his clavicle? does he have a hangnail on his big toe?  wtf.

Murray was very good last season sans Cook and McKinnon..I can't see Cook staying healthy the remainder of the season so Murray might become a volume hog..

(although the Vikings coaching staff likes to run the ball LESS that Jay friggin' Gruden in Washington, and thats NOT a good thing..)

 
Didn’t see Wilkins on that list? He’s the guy to own in Indy. No way Mack is the starter much longer. But it is the Colts backfield so production may not be all that stellar regardless of role. 

 
With the Mixon injury, Gio's value is obviously increased. 

Would anyone drop Burkhead for Gio though? While Gio seems to be a few-week fill in, what is Burkhead's value moving forward?

While I have Burkhead in 1 league, I'm sure this is a scenario others are likely in as well (If not, apologies for making it more my-team related)

 
Seeing Wendell Smallwood immediately get action after Ajayi's knee acted up Sunday put a pretty big hole in the theory that says Corey Clement would be a stud if Ajayi goes down.

 
Didn’t see Wilkins on that list? He’s the guy to own in Indy. No way Mack is the starter much longer. But it is the Colts backfield so production may not be all that stellar regardless of role. 
Listen to pods of people that watch the game and they are putting Wilkins behind Mack and in danger of being behind Himes.

 
Seeing Wendell Smallwood immediately get action after Ajayi's knee acted up Sunday put a pretty big hole in the theory that says Corey Clement would be a stud if Ajayi goes down.
guess you missed his 7/30 -  5.0 ypc, and 5/55 receiving and a td....Doug uses RBBC, I think Clement would be the main beneficiary if Ajayi misses time. Smallwood isn't good.

 
guess you missed his 7/30 -  5.0 ypc, and 5/55 receiving and a td....Doug uses RBBC, I think Clement would be the main beneficiary if Ajayi misses time. Smallwood isn't good.
The point I was making is that Ajayi's snaps went to Smallwood, not Clement.  Same thing happened week 17 last season.

Smallwood got he biggest bump the last two games Ajayi missed time.  Clement's snaps stayed about the same.

 
The point I was making is that Ajayi's snaps went to Smallwood, not Clement.  Same thing happened week 17 last season.

Smallwood got he biggest bump the last two games Ajayi missed time.  Clement's snaps stayed about the same.
yeah philly is going to run a committee for whatever reason, I get Ajayi/clement split....but giving smallwood touches seems counter productive plus he had a fumble last week

 
In 2016 and 2017 we had a thread that folks seemed to find valuable so I am starting another version for 2018 - it's a living, ongoing list of potential King Makers - the idea is to be PREEMPTIVE on RBs most likely sitting on the Waiver Wire (depending upon league size, sharks or guppies, etc.).  The definition of this thread is generally re-draft.

Please note that this list is being updated every week on subsequent pages of this thread

I have ranked per @SameSongNDance's spreadsheet contribution Posted Friday at 01:48 PM

Also, I have split the list into two:  King Makers and Honorable Mentions

- feel free to let me know if guys should be moved around between the two lists

To paraphrase @TZMarkie from 2016: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys"

I don't have time to watch film and I only follow pros so I am dependent upon the opinions of others. 

Candidates for Season Changing RBs (King Makers) for re-draft going forward - Here is a Post-Week-2 list, ranked based on @SameSongNDance's spreadsheet:

  • KCC - Spencer Ware deserves a prominent position in this thread.  Potential RB1 in that KC offense if Hunt goes down <-- per @davearm ... and per @chad in Indy: "Spencer Ware as mentioned above would be my #1 home run"
  • LAC - Ekeler - "Ekeler is a high-end handcuff" per @MindBomb  
  • PHI - Clement becomes the guy if Ajayi goes down IMO <-- per @Buck Bradcanon  - Wed Sep 19: some reports doubting Ajayi will play this coming weekend
  • BAL - maybe Buck Allen now that Kenneth Dixon is on IR and out of the way and Collins keeps fumbling <-- per @Ted Lange as your Bartender
  • DAL - Rod Smith - @zamboni stated "break glass in case of emergency" handcuff guys that could be very effective three-down backs with a big workload in case of injury"... while @davearm  adds: "what can we really expect to get out of Rod Smith in that Dallas offense?  They'd be Buffalo bad at that point"
  • LAR - Brown - Brown deserve to be on the watch list b/c God forbid an injury happens to Gurley <-- per @4th and Inches ... and per @Football Jones  : "A good what-if RB I like is Malcolm Brown. The Rams have a very good offense so if Gurley goes down"
  • NE - S Michel - if he is somehow available in your league
  • CIN - Geo Bernard - suggested by @cloppbeast  - Wed Sep 19: Mixon out a couple of weeks
  • DEN - P. Lindsay - "(one of the) guys that should be added now" per @The Dude
  • MIN - Latavius Murray - MIN - Latavius Murray has value now and if something happens to Cook <-- per @cap'n grunge
  • PIT - Jaylen Samuels - Samuels is on my radar - he's currently 2nd on the Steelers depth chart <-- per @Steeler and @Football Jones adds:   "I also like Jaylen Samuels long-term despite how good Conner looked in week 1"
  • JAC - T.J. Yeldon -
  • ATL - Ito Smith -
  • ARI - Chase Edmonds - suggested by @Buck Bradcanon while @zamboni adds "included in ... break glass in case of emergency handcuff guys"
  • GB - A Jones - "(one of the) guys that should be added now" per @The Dude ... and @Dr. Dan adds this link:  Aaron Jones v Dalvin Cook
  • LAR - John Kelly - @zamboni stated "break glass in case of emergency" handcuff guys that could be very effective three-down backs with a big workload in case of injury"
Honorable Mentions

  • PIT - S. Ridley -
  • MIA - Frank Gore -
  • NO - Mike Gillislee -
  • HOU - A. Blue -
  • DEN - D. Booker -
  • CAR - CJ Anderson - could be available and would get a ton of work if CMc missed any time <-- per @Snorkelson  - @ninogaggi writes:  "I have a problem with CJA (dude cracked 1k last year) being so low & Booker (who was CJA’s back up last year in Den) being ranked ahead of him.  CJA has the receiving skills to take over the bulk of Carolina’s RB work if CMC goes down."
  • TBB - Jacquizz Rodgers -
  • CHI - Benny Cunningham -
  • GBP - T. Montgomery -
  • CLE - N. Chubb - @hardcoredx writes:  "Nick Chubb is by far and away the most talented RB on the list, it’s almost insulting to actually see him on the list of all JAGS. I see him as a future top 6 back. He really should be higher, I realize Hyde is the starter but he will probably get hurt and not get his job back. He usually gets on an injury report. I see Chubb doing a 2015 rookie Gurley when he takes over."
  • NYG - Wayne Gallman - what happens if Saquon Barkley misses time?  Wayne Gallman? Jonathan Stewart? Shane Smith? <-- per @CaptainJT
  • OAK - Doug Martin - suggested by @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • OAK - J. Richard - suggested per @cloppbeast while @Stompin' Tom Connors writes :  "Not a lottery ticket RB, IMHO.  Richard's role and value doesn't change a bit based on the primary back, Lynch, being out.  And, FWIW, I think he has value in redraft PPR as it stands right now, especially against stout run Ds."
  • WAS - Sam Perine -
  • MIN - Mike Boone -
  • NYG - Jonathan Stewart -
  • WAS - Robert Kelley -
  • MIA - Kalen Ballage -
  • TEN - David Fluellen -
  • BUF - Marcus Murphy (note: last RB on SSND's list) - Maybe more of a long shot but I like Murphy in Buf. Good preseason and seems to be #2 on the depth chart now <-- per @dehaven123  ... "Currently making room for him in dynasty" <-- per @Ray Barboni   ... Murphy might be my #1 "dart" RB" <-- per @Football Jones
  • GB - Darius Jackson - per @Dr. Dan : "If Jones doesn't perform as expected, and/or gets hurt, Jackson is such an elite athlete he could take over. I could see him being possibly the best athlete at RB on the team right now"... while @Ilov80s adds:  "That could be interesting. He is basically Christine Michael minus the hype"
  • SF - Which back to own?  Breida? Morris?  While they both may be rostered in most leagues, a valuable question is which to own going forward?  It's Shanahan after all.  Please visit my thread on this topic here:  Breida v Morris Which to Own?
  • NE - Ralph Webb -
  • NE - James Develin -
  • FA - Darkwa - suggested by @msudaisy26
  • IND - Himes
  • SEA - Penny - if impatient owners have dropped him
  • DET - Abdullah due to the possibility of him being traded
  • PHI - Sproles 
  • FA - Devante Mays
  • TBB - R Jones
  • JAC - Corey Grant per @DBDynasty
  • BAL - De'Lance Turner. A Collins fumble away from getting a lot of work <-- per @Jed
  • BUF - Ivory - per @SameSongNDance : "If McCoy went down, I'm sure Ivory would still see some work, I don't consider Murphy to be particularly talented (although I do like what I've seen) and BUF's offense and OL are the worst in the league"
  • DET - Keryon Johnson <-- per @champ23
  • NYG -  Jonathan Stewart/Shane Smith/Wayne Gallman - what happens if Saquon Barkley misses time?  Wayne Gallman? Jonathan Stewart? Shane Smith? <-- per @CaptainJT
  • WAS - Someone on Washington after AP wears down? <-- per @Snorkelson  
  • IND - Wilkins - "He’s the guy to own in Indy. No way Mack is the starter much longer. But it is the Colts backfield so production may not be all that stellar regardless of role"  <-- per @Elevencents
Thoughts?  Opinions?

P.S. I want to give a shout out to @SameSongNDance for starting this annual tradition back in 2016!

P.S.S. I want to give a shout out to @Mr. Irrelevant on his excellent thread 2017 Trends that could repeat in 2018.
 
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I like Corey Clement this week if Ajayi doesn't play.  Sure Smallwood will get some carries too, but Clement just looks better and the Colts give up passing yards to backs like Clement.

 
Sigmund Bloom in the FBG Waiver Wire podcast today:

  • called Aaron Jones "his one dart" (speculative/preemptive pickup).  Bloom noted that Aaron Jones put up 100 yard games with Aaron Rodgers and Brent Hundley last season
  • about Cory Grant "don't wait for Fournette to get hurt" and "could he be their P Lindsay?  Maybe!"
  • Ito Smith "could be that preemptive pickup"
  • about Ronald Jones:  "The TBB offense has changed from the pre-season (not good) to the season (very good)... perhaps the passing game will open things up for R Jones... Barber will get what is there and nothing more... results could be different going forward... could be one of those moments where (picking up Jones) doesn't seem like a (Season Changer) but is"

 
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So I did a thing in my spreadsheet where I attempted to rank handcuffs based on opportunity, talent, their offense (taking into account an injury to starting RB) and OL (run blocking). I weighted opportunity twice as heavily as every category. The scale is from 1-5.

It's pretty subjective, I'll be wrong somewhere but at least I gave it a shot. It'd be cool if people could point out where I may be wrong (especially when it comes to OLs).

It also is probably missing some players as it's hard to include players who split carries. There are also some more obscure handcuffs I could add like Cannon (NYJ), Newsome (LAC), Boone (already added him) and etc. 

This was the end result.

  1. S. Ware
  2. A. Ekeler
  3. C. Clement
  4. B. Allen
  5. R. Smith
  6. M. Brown
  7. G. Bernard
  8. P. Lindsay
  9. L. Murray
  10. J. Samuels
  11. T.J Yeldon
  12. I. Smith
  13. C. Edmonds
  14. A. Jones
  15. J. Kelly
  16. S. Ridley
  17. F. Gore
  18. M. Gilislee
  19. A. Blue
  20. D. Booker
  21. C. Anderson
  22. J. Rodgers
  23. B. Cunningham
  24. T. Montgomery
  25. N. Chubb
  26. W. Gallman
  27. D. Martin
  28. J. Richard
  29. S. Perine
  30. M. Boone
  31. J. Stewart
  32. R. Kelley
  33. K. Ballage
  34. D. Fluellen
  35. M. Murphy
I have a problem with CJA (dude cracked 1k last year) being so low & Booker (who was CJA’s back up last year in Den) being ranked ahead of him.  CJA has the receiving skills to take over the bulk of Carolina’s RB work if CMC goes down.    

 
Nick Chubb is by far and away the most talented RB on the list, it’s almost insulting to actually see him on the list of all JAGS. I see him as a future top 6 back. He really should be higher, I realize Hyde is the starter but he will probably get hurt and not get his job back. He usually gets on an injury report. I see Chubb doing a 2015 rookie Gurley when he takes over.  

 
I have a problem with CJA (dude cracked 1k last year) being so low & Booker (who was CJA’s back up last year in Den) being ranked ahead of him.  CJA has the receiving skills to take over the bulk of Carolina’s RB work if CMC goes down.    


does CJA belong in the King Maker list?  Does CJA have that "combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload"?


Not sure I'd go that far in that offense.  But he's a good receiving back and capable of being "the guy".


Well, the general idea is that, to be included in the King Maker List the RB must have that "combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload".

 
Nick Chubb is by far and away the most talented RB on the list, it’s almost insulting to actually see him on the list of all JAGS. I see him as a future top 6 back. He really should be higher, I realize Hyde is the starter but he will probably get hurt and not get his job back. He usually gets on an injury report. I see Chubb doing a 2015 rookie Gurley when he takes over.  
@hardcoredx - Do you feel that CLE can provide Chubb the "combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload" that elevates an RB to the King Maker List?

 
So I did a thing in my spreadsheet where I attempted to rank handcuffs based on opportunity, talent, their offense (taking into account an injury to starting RB) and OL (run blocking). I weighted opportunity twice as heavily as every category. The scale is from 1-5.

It's pretty subjective, I'll be wrong somewhere but at least I gave it a shot. It'd be cool if people could point out where I may be wrong (especially when it comes to OLs).

It also is probably missing some players as it's hard to include players who split carries. There are also some more obscure handcuffs I could add like Cannon (NYJ), Newsome (LAC), Boone (already added him) and etc. 

This was the end result.

  1. S. Ware
  2. A. Ekeler
  3. C. Clement
  4. B. Allen
  5. R. Smith
  6. M. Brown
  7. G. Bernard
  8. P. Lindsay
  9. L. Murray
  10. J. Samuels
  11. T.J Yeldon
  12. I. Smith
  13. C. Edmonds
  14. A. Jones
  15. J. Kelly
  16. S. Ridley
  17. F. Gore
  18. M. Gilislee
  19. A. Blue
  20. D. Booker
  21. C. Anderson
  22. J. Rodgers
  23. B. Cunningham
  24. T. Montgomery
  25. N. Chubb
  26. W. Gallman
  27. D. Martin
  28. J. Richard
  29. S. Perine
  30. M. Boone
  31. J. Stewart
  32. R. Kelley
  33. K. Ballage
  34. D. Fluellen
  35. M. Murphy
I think as a pure handcuff, CJ Anderson has a lot of value.  If CMC were to get hurt, he would likely be a three down back and receive plenty of receptions.  Carolina has split carries for years, but with Cameron Artis-Payne as the backup, Anderson would likely get a vast majority of the work as Anderson is better between the tackles and as a receiver.

 
So I did a thing in my spreadsheet where I attempted to rank handcuffs based on opportunity, talent, their offense (taking into account an injury to starting RB) and OL (run blocking). I weighted opportunity twice as heavily as every category. The scale is from 1-5.

It's pretty subjective, I'll be wrong somewhere but at least I gave it a shot. It'd be cool if people could point out where I may be wrong (especially when it comes to OLs).

It also is probably missing some players as it's hard to include players who split carries. There are also some more obscure handcuffs I could add like Cannon (NYJ), Newsome (LAC), Boone (already added him) and etc. 

This was the end result.

  1. S. Ware
  2. A. Ekeler
  3. C. Clement
  4. B. Allen
  5. R. Smith
  6. M. Brown
  7. G. Bernard
  8. P. Lindsay
  9. L. Murray
  10. J. Samuels
  11. T.J Yeldon
  12. I. Smith
  13. C. Edmonds
  14. A. Jones
  15. J. Kelly
  16. S. Ridley
  17. F. Gore
  18. M. Gilislee
  19. A. Blue
  20. D. Booker
  21. C. Anderson
  22. J. Rodgers
  23. B. Cunningham
  24. T. Montgomery
  25. N. Chubb
  26. W. Gallman
  27. D. Martin
  28. J. Richard
  29. S. Perine
  30. M. Boone
  31. J. Stewart
  32. R. Kelley
  33. K. Ballage
  34. D. Fluellen
  35. M. Murphy




i'm surprised at how little attention hines gets on lists like this. perhaps his preseason fumbles are still freaking a lot of people out but he's on the field about 43% of the snaps through two weeks. that's pretty high for a rook.

if you're looking for a guy who hast the talent and current opportunity to be a lotto ticket and doesn't need an injury to get there, he's your guy (and you don't have to play much of a waiting game). the team should be playing from behind a bit this year, he's the guy the team expects can keep luck on his feet and he has big play tools.

i'd have him top 10 on this list based just on the current playing time and that's without even considering his speed... i'd probably bump both him and lindsay up to top 5 or 6.

 
On The Audible Podcast on Thursday Sep 20th Bloom and Matt Waldman stated:

  • PHI - Josh Adams - per Waldman:  "maybe a preemptive pickup"
  • ATL - Ito Smith - per Bloom - "if Coleman goes down we could be very excited (about him)" and "he looked pretty darn good (last week)"
  • MIN - Mike Boone - "you might want to pick him up as a Lottery Ticket"
  • CIN - Mark Walton - per Bloom "might be a guy you pick up and get very lucky" - per Waldman "he can be but it's iffy - he has great quickness, etc. but he doesn't have great vision - not as physically talented as M Mack but makes better decisions than Mack"
 
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I am gambling on the following tickets:
Rexy

Sony

Kerryon 

Ito
 

if one of them does not hit, I will admit to you guys that I am a failure and I walk away forever 

 
Also I will define what it means to hit or not hit. Also by walk away forever, I mean from this thread. 

 
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In 2016 and 2017 we had a thread that folks seemed to find valuable so I am starting another version for 2018 - it's a living, ongoing list of potential King Makers - the idea is to be PREEMPTIVE on RBs most likely sitting on the Waiver Wire (depending upon league size, sharks or guppies, etc.).  The definition of this thread is generally re-draft.

Please note that this list is being updated every week on subsequent pages of this thread

I have ranked players loosely per @SameSongNDance's spreadsheet contribution Posted Sept. 14th

Today (SAT SEP 22) I have added comments made by Bloom and Waldman during this weeks FBG's podcasts in red

To paraphrase @TZMarkie from 2016: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".

And to quote @Ilov80s : "I still remember where I was when I got the news update Ingram was hurt and out for the year. Was working night school in the CISCO lab and snap added Tim Hightower. Him and DeAngelo were probably the RB1 and RB2 for the rest of season. My team was so good. Made $$$$$$$$$. For that reason/season I will always be a faithful disciple in the way of the lotto ticket".

Candidates for Season Changing RBs (King Makers) for re-draft going forward - Here is a Post-Week-2 list, again, loosely ranked based on @SameSongNDance's spreadsheet:

  • KCC - Spencer Ware deserves a prominent position in this thread.  Potential RB1 in that KC offense if Hunt goes down <-- per @davearm ... and per @chad in Indy: "Spencer Ware as mentioned above would be my #1 home run"
  • LAC - Ekeler - "Ekeler is a high-end handcuff" per @MindBomb  
  • PHI - Clement becomes the guy if Ajayi goes down IMO <-- per @Buck Bradcanon  - Wed Sep 19: some reports doubting Ajayi will play this coming weekend
  • BAL - maybe Buck Allen now that Kenneth Dixon is on IR and out of the way and Collins keeps fumbling <-- per @Ted Lange as your Bartender
  • DAL - Rod Smith - @zamboni stated "break glass in case of emergency" handcuff guys that could be very effective three-down backs with a big workload in case of injury"... while @davearm  adds: "what can we really expect to get out of Rod Smith in that Dallas offense?  They'd be Buffalo bad at that point"
  • LAR - Brown - Brown deserve to be on the watch list b/c God forbid an injury happens to Gurley <-- per @4th and Inches ... and per @Football Jones  : "A good what-if RB I like is Malcolm Brown. The Rams have a very good offense so if Gurley goes down"
  • NE - S Michel - if he is somehow available in your league
  • CIN - Geo Bernard - suggested by @cloppbeast  - Wed Sep 19: Mixon out a couple of weeks
  • DEN - P. Lindsay - "(one of the) guys that should be added now" per @The Dude
  • MIN - Latavius Murray - MIN - Latavius Murray has value now and if something happens to Cook <-- per @cap'n grunge
  • PIT - Jaylen Samuels - Samuels is on my radar - he's currently 2nd on the Steelers depth chart <-- per @Steeler and @Football Jones adds:   "I also like Jaylen Samuels long-term despite how good Conner looked in week 1"
  • JAC - T.J. Yeldon -
  • ATL - Ito Smith - ...Bloom in the FBG Waiver Wire podcast Sept. 18th stated:  "could be that preemptive pickup" ... and On The Audible Podcast on Thursday Sep 20th Bloom and Matt Waldman discussed preemptive pickups stating:  "if Coleman goes down we could be very excited (about him)" and "he looked pretty darn good (last week)"
  • ARI - Chase Edmonds - suggested by @Buck Bradcanon while @zamboni adds "included in ... break glass in case of emergency handcuff guys"
  • GB - A Jones - "(one of the) guys that should be added now" per @The Dude ... and @Dr. Dan adds this link:  Aaron Jones v Dalvin Cook ... and Bloom in the FBG Waiver Wire podcast Sept. 18th stated:  "called Aaron Jones "his one dart" (speculative/preemptive pickup).  Bloom noted that Aaron Jones put up 100 yard games with Aaron Rodgers and Brent Hundley last season"
  • LAR - John Kelly - @zamboni stated "break glass in case of emergency" handcuff guys that could be very effective three-down backs with a big workload in case of injury"
Also Consider:

  • PIT - S. Ridley -
  • MIA - Frank Gore -
  • NO - Mike Gillislee -
  • HOU - A. Blue -
  • DEN - D. Booker -
  • CAR - CJ Anderson - could be available and would get a ton of work if CMc missed any time <-- per @Snorkelson  - @ninogaggi writes:  "I have a problem with CJA (dude cracked 1k last year) being so low & Booker (who was CJA’s back up last year in Den) being ranked ahead of him.  CJA has the receiving skills to take over the bulk of Carolina’s RB work if CMC goes down."
  • TBB - Jacquizz Rodgers -
  • CHI - Benny Cunningham -
  • GBP - T. Montgomery -
  • CLE - N. Chubb - @hardcoredx writes:  "Nick Chubb is by far and away the most talented RB on the list, it’s almost insulting to actually see him on the list of all JAGS. I see him as a future top 6 back. He really should be higher, I realize Hyde is the starter but he will probably get hurt and not get his job back. He usually gets on an injury report. I see Chubb doing a 2015 rookie Gurley when he takes over."
  • NYG - Wayne Gallman - what happens if Saquon Barkley misses time?  Wayne Gallman? Jonathan Stewart? Shane Smith? <-- per @CaptainJT
  • OAK - Doug Martin - suggested by @Stompin' Tom Connors
  • OAK - J. Richard - suggested per @cloppbeast while @Stompin' Tom Connors writes :  "Not a lottery ticket RB, IMHO.  Richard's role and value doesn't change a bit based on the primary back, Lynch, being out.  And, FWIW, I think he has value in redraft PPR as it stands right now, especially against stout run Ds."
  • WAS - Sam Perine -
  • MIN - Mike Boone - ...On The Audible Podcast on Thursday Sep 20th Bloom and Matt Waldman discussed preemptive pickups stating:  "you might want to pick him up as a Lottery Ticket"
  • MIN - Roc Thomas - @IHEARTFF writes "not sure if (Roc) or Boone would benefit (Cook being out)"
  • CIN - Mark Walton - ...On The Audible Podcast on Thursday Sep 20th Bloom and Matt Waldman discussed preemptive pickups stating:  Mark Walton - per Bloom "might be a guy you pick up and get very lucky" - per Waldman "he can be but it's iffy - he has great quickness, etc. but he doesn't have great vision - not as physically talented as M Mack but makes better decisions than Mack"
  • NYG - Jonathan Stewart -
  • WAS - Robert Kelley -
  • MIA - Kalen Ballage -
  • TEN - David Fluellen -
  • BUF - Marcus Murphy (note: last RB on SSND's list) - Maybe more of a long shot but I like Murphy in Buf. Good preseason and seems to be #2 on the depth chart now <-- per @dehaven123  ... "Currently making room for him in dynasty" <-- per @Ray Barboni   ... Murphy might be my #1 "dart" RB" <-- per @Football Jones
  • GB - Darius Jackson - per @Dr. Dan : "If Jones doesn't perform as expected, and/or gets hurt, Jackson is such an elite athlete he could take over. I could see him being possibly the best athlete at RB on the team right now"... while @Ilov80s adds:  "That could be interesting. He is basically Christine Michael minus the hype"
  • SF - Which back to own?  Breida? Morris?  While they both may be rostered in most leagues, a valuable question is which to own going forward?  It's Shanahan after all.  Please visit my thread on this topic here:  Breida v Morris Which to Own?
  • NE - Ralph Webb -
  • NE - James Develin -
  • FA - Darkwa - suggested by @msudaisy26
  • IND - Himes
  • SEA - Penny - if impatient owners have dropped him
  • DET - Abdullah due to the possibility of him being traded
  • PHI - Sproles 
  • PHI - Josh Adams - ...On The Audible Podcast on Thursday Sep 20th Bloom and Matt Waldman discussed preemptive pickups stating:  per Waldman:  "maybe a preemptive pickup"
  • FA - Devante Mays
  • TBB - R Jones - ...Bloom in the FBG Waiver Wire podcast Sept. 18th stated:  "The TBB offense has changed from the pre-season (not good) to the season (very good)... perhaps the passing game will open things up for R Jones... Barber will get what is there and nothing more... results could be different going forward... could be one of those moments where (picking up Jones) doesn't seem like a (Season Changer) but is"
  • JAC - Corey Grant per @DBDynasty   ... and Bloom in the FBG Waiver Wire podcast Sept. 18th stated:  "don't wait for Fournette to get hurt" and "could he be their P Lindsay?  Maybe!"
  • BAL - De'Lance Turner. A Collins fumble away from getting a lot of work <-- per @Jed
  • BUF - Ivory - per @SameSongNDance : "If McCoy went down, I'm sure Ivory would still see some work, I don't consider Murphy to be particularly talented (although I do like what I've seen) and BUF's offense and OL are the worst in the league"
  • DET - Keryon Johnson <-- per @champ23
  • NYG -  Jonathan Stewart/Shane Smith/Wayne Gallman - what happens if Saquon Barkley misses time?  Wayne Gallman? Jonathan Stewart? Shane Smith? <-- per @CaptainJT
  • WAS - Someone on Washington after AP wears down? <-- per @Snorkelson  
  • IND - Wilkins - "He’s the guy to own in Indy. No way Mack is the starter much longer. But it is the Colts backfield so production may not be all that stellar regardless of role"  <-- per @Elevencents
Thoughts?  Opinions?

P.S. I want to give a shout out to @SameSongNDance for starting this annual tradition back in 2016!

P.S.S. I want to give a shout out to @Mr. Irrelevant on his excellent thread 2017 Trends that could repeat in 2018.

 
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I feel like we need to distill this - what are the leading contenders for backfields where some one RB could emerge from competition or opportunity? 

Im thinking of situations comparable to what we saw with Collins and Drake last year.

 
I still remember where I was when I got the news update Ingram was hurt and out for the year. Was working night school in the CISCO lab and snap added Hightower. Him and Deangelo were probably the RB1 and RB2 for the rest of season. My team was so good. Made $$$$$$$$$. For that reason/season I will aways be a faithful disciple in the way of the lotto ticket. 

 
I feel like we need to distill this - what are the leading contenders for backfields where some one RB could emerge from competition or opportunity? 

Im thinking of situations comparable to what we saw with Collins and Drake last year.
The Candidates for Season Changers / King Makers list at the top are supposed to be the RB's "with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload".  The Also Consider list is an exercise in trying to be comprehensive, leaving no stone un-turned.  We will never satisfy everyone's opinion on the placement in the lists.

What do you suggest sir?

 
I still remember where I was when I got the news update Ingram was hurt and out for the year. Was working night school in the CISCO lab and snap added Hightower. Him and Deangelo were probably the RB1 and RB2 for the rest of season. My team was so good. Made $$$$$$$$$. For that reason/season I will aways be a faithful disciple in the way of the lotto ticket. 
@Ilov80s - that is beautiful in a way - I added your story in the List introduction!

 
I’ve picked up Grant from JAX wherever I could. With Fournette gimpy I could see him being a PPR machine going forward. 

 
The Candidates for Season Changers / King Makers list at the top are supposed to be the RB's "with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload".  The Also Consider list is an exercise in trying to be comprehensive, leaving no stone un-turned.  We will never satisfy everyone's opinion on the placement in the lists.

What do you suggest sir?
I appreciate this thread, as I have in the past. Many thanks. I will see what I can do to contribute. - It also helps to think things out. - SID

 
Candidates for Season Changing RBs (King Makers) for re-draft going forward - Here is a Post-Week-2 list, again, loosely ranked based on @SameSongNDance's spreadsheet:
I'm just going to brainstorm here, several of the names here are injury dependent. And unless we're talking about someone like Ajayi who has an injury history, like a specific recurring injury (in his case knees) that you can expect, it's a bit of a dart throw. I just want to offer some ideas of backfields where some RB might take over due to just pure performance vs opportunity:

  • Indy - Jordan Wilkins. I don't know if anyone noticed but he went 10/61 last week. Mack went 10/34. Wilkins is getting another shot this week though the matchup vs Philly is not good. - eta - Should have added Hines, though it's not clear if he will get the bulk of carries.
  • Detroit - Johnson split carries with Blount with fairly even results. - eta - Has appeared to have taken over as the lead.
  • GB - Aaron Jones - not real sure here. Williams is a very good blocker but he's not performing as a playmaker.
  • TB - Ronald Jones - in-flippin'-active last week, but Barber is let's just say uninspiring and they drafted Jones for a reason. 
  • eta - NE - Should have mentioned Michel, it’s obviously already happened.
That's all I got right now, but obviously the floor is open to debate.

 
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