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Snorkelson

FanDuel week 3

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Week 2 is over, week 3 getting fired up. I personally went the smaller single entry tournaments and some 5-10-20 man and had a decent week, along with some 50/50 and head to head. I’ll probably stick with that for another week. Need to dive in some more but it looks like we’ll have to dig for bargains. 

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Sunday only Gpp-My first stab has Watson Hopkins fuller stacked. Sanu vs NO. Brieda and Bernard. Kelce seems like the play at te imo, Minnesota def is hard chalk to get away from. With my money left I played jimmy graham at flex. I’ll probably go back to the barrel here.... 

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Ran through real quick, and couldn't get away from the ATL - NO game.

Matt Ryan, Kamara, Tevin Coleman, Calvin Ridley, Sammy Watkins, Demaryius, Kittle (burned me last week, so maybe this is his week?), McCaffrey, Chicago

Super stacked the Falcons against a NO defense that has been exposed by Fitzpatrick and Tyrod.

Kamara plays the McCaffrey role this week, especially with the injuries to ATL's defense.

Mahomes is en fuego right now, making all his weapons viable.  Tyreek in week 1, Kelce in week 2, Watkins in week 3?

Demaryius is a little salary relief and has had a decent start (averaging double-digit targets and A.J. just went for 3 TDs against the Ravens last week).

Kittle gets the soft KC defense this week, and Jesse James did work last week (5-138-1).  Hoping for the same result this week!

McCaffrey has become Cam's new Greg Olsen.  He has a nice floor and Cincinnati has surrendered 18 receptions to RBs so far this season.

The Bears are for real, or so it seems.  The addition of Mack seems to have energized this defense.  Oh, and they're playing the Arizona who is in a dogfight with Buffalo for the worst team in the NFL this year.

Thoughts?

Edited by Titans_fan

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So for the first time I am doing my own projections this year. To be very very clear, I do not trust them yet.

That said, Matt Ryan is popping as the best QB option on Draftkings. On Fanduel Maholmes, Ryan, and Stafford are all right about the same when you consider pricing. I will post some of the position players later tonight.

 

Edit: So I just finished updating the rest of the skill players. I wont even bother to mention anything except Quincy Enunwa. At $6100 he is WAY too cheap.

Edited by RunPassCatch_22

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The Thursday night million single game is offering a share of $100K if your flex player scores the first TD.  132k entries.  Any thoughts on how to play this?  Do you take a shot at Higgins, Powell, Calloway, etc as your flex figuring they would be less than 5% owned at the flex position?  Probably a waste as you're flushing your shot at winning regular prizes down the toilet.

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

The Thursday night million single game is offering a share of $100K if your flex player scores the first TD.  132k entries.  Any thoughts on how to play this?  Do you take a shot at Higgins, Powell, Calloway, etc as your flex figuring they would be less than 5% owned at the flex position?  Probably a waste as you're flushing your shot at winning regular prizes down the toilet.

This excited me at first also but then I thought shoot, even picking the outliers as Flex MVP, with 130k entries if these guys are 5% owned you get an extra $18 if your lottery number hits?  Sounds like more of a marketing ploy to me.  I’m picking Prior for the heck of it but not expecting a big payout if he’s first to score.

Another way to play this is to pick a Kicker for your MVP because they can’t win the extra $100k prize (since they don’t score TD’s) so perhaps they will be low owned in MVP position?  If it’s a low scoring game and one of the kickers has the highest overall score for the night, there won’t be as much competition for the top spot.

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3 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

This excited me at first also but then I thought shoot, even picking the outliers as Flex MVP, with 130k entries if these guys are 5% owned you get an extra $18 if your lottery number hits?  Sounds like more of a marketing ploy to me.  I’m picking Prior for the heck of it but not expecting a big payout if he’s first to score.

Another way to play this is to pick a Kicker for your MVP because they can’t win the extra $100k prize (since they don’t score TD’s) so perhaps they will be low owned in MVP position?  If it’s a low scoring game and one of the kickers has the highest overall score for the night, there won’t be as much competition for the top spot.

I considered that, but I haven't seen one of these games where the kicker eclipsed the QB.  I know it will or has happened, but I just don't play my gpps that way which is likely why I will never have a big pay day in this format.  I've been playing gpps like cash plus chasing overlay and doing very well this year so far.  

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On ‎9‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 9:59 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Initial thought is just to game stack Rams and Chargers then use Minn or Philly D. 

I wouldn't trust Philly's D to much. TB really exposed their weak passing DEF last week. I'm actually liking a Philly O stack and running it back with Hilton and/or Ebron for a GPP or two. 

Don't know what their price is on DK, but, at $3400, I am very seriously looking at the Dallas DEF against Seattle for a few GPP's; maybe even cash. 4th ranked DEF overall, 5th ranked against the pass, against an 0-2 Seattle offense that has given up 12 sacks and five turnovers in two games.

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20 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Is it weird that I hate almost every WR this week?  

No.  My current cash lineup receivers are Diggs, Crowder, and Allison because I paid up at other positions.  This likely won't end well as is.

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Just now, Galileo said:

No.  My current cash lineup receivers are Diggs, Crowder, and Allison because I paid up at other positions.  This likely won't end well as is.

I feel insanely uncomfortable with all my lineups this week.  Not just WR but even if I pay up, I can likely only get 1 of Michael Thomas or Julio Jones as those are the only 2 I want.  RB's everyone is going cheap with Breida, Tevin Coleman, Gio Bernard, Corey Clement, those types of guys, and I still can't find a lineup I like.  

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7 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

I wouldn't trust Philly's D to much. TB really exposed their weak passing DEF last week. I'm actually liking a Philly O stack and running it back with Hilton and/or Ebron for a GPP or two. 

Don't know what their price is on DK, but, at $3400, I am very seriously looking at the Dallas DEF against Seattle for a few GPP's; maybe even cash. 4th ranked DEF overall, 5th ranked against the pass, against an 0-2 Seattle offense that has given up 12 sacks and five turnovers in two games.

After posting this, I rethought my initial take on the Philly D.  Minn and Jax are the obvious ones.  I do like Chicago even though they are on the road.  I was about to look at the DL vs. OL comparison to see if a cheaper/gpp D stood out at all.  

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I feel insanely uncomfortable with all my lineups this week.  Not just WR but even if I pay up, I can likely only get 1 of Michael Thomas or Julio Jones as those are the only 2 I want.  RB's everyone is going cheap with Breida, Tevin Coleman, Gio Bernard, Corey Clement, those types of guys, and I still can't find a lineup I like.  

Looking at those names reminds me of last week when sites were telling me to play Taylor and A.Smith.   I think the order you have them listed is how I would have them ranked, but don't know if I want any in my main LU.  

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Looking at Ds and the DL vs. OL stats.   The ones that stuck out were the ones being talked about - Dallas and Minnesota.  A couple other cheaper gpp Home team options that also popped up were KC and Wash.  Both SF and GB were in the top 5 as far as adjusted sack rates allowed on the season.  

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Looking a little at stats, and wrote a couple things down for RBs and TEs:.

 

RBs:

Here are RBs under 8K who in the first couple games are averaging at least 17 touches/game AND have a good matchup in either OL vs DL or DVOA:  (listed in order of touches/game)

A.Peterson, McCaffrey, Howard, Miller, Cook, Hunt, J.Williams.     The bolded were on the DVOA list, the others on the OL/DL list.  

 

I am looking long and hard at Howard and/or the Chicago D this week.  For a gpp play, I also like L.Murray if Cook is starting.  Very possible that Minn could be up huge and give Murray more work since Cook tweaked something last week.  

 

TEs:

There were 3 TEs that showed up as having 15%+ of their team's targets AND had a top matchup when looking at DVOA.   Kelce, Gronk, Engram.  

 

I wrote down a Watson - Hopkins/Fuller stack, and Engram would be an option to run that back with.  

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I love to watch the GPP heartaches, tonight there was 1 winner with a minute left when the jets got the ball back, the guy actually picked Mayfield.  He was winning $250k up until the last play of the game, when Darnold threw the last pick and incurred -1 point.  At which time he dropped to 32nd Place winning $300.

This guy will never forget this the rest of his life.

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11 minutes ago, AquaBliss said:

I love to watch the GPP heartaches, tonight there was 1 winner with a minute left when the jets got the ball back, the guy actually picked Mayfield.  He was winning $250k up until the last play of the game, when Darnold threw the last pick and incurred -1 point.  At which time he dropped to 32nd Place winning $300.

This guy will never forget this the rest of his life.

It wasn’t the lineup I posted but I was watching that too and thanking gif it wasn’t me

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Wow that’s brutal. And amazing for the guy that took his spot!

I think it’s hard not to have Gio in your lineup. Other RBs already mentioned like Clement are possibilities. Finding it hard to put one together that I like without including backups who are starting. I’m keeping an eye on the Fournette situation and may go with Grant if he’s not playing. If I can swing it, Kamara will be in a lot going against that depleted Falcons D. I like Michel too. JK Michel not available wtf  

Will prob have a lot of Sanders at WR. He’s still undervalued. Pettis burned me last week but will monitor Goodwin. 

TE is always hardest to me. Leaning Reed this week. Ian Thomas is already in one lineup for super cheap  

Hard not to take Minny D. 

Edited by Elevencents

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There are at least 3 freeroll on FD this week. I've made some whacky wtf stacks for them- Dal, Jax and Chargers.

Even with all the values at RB I'm having a tough time making lineups I like that have 2 of Kamara,Thomas,Julio or Gronk in them.

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Tough rb decisions. Clement, Murray, Bernard, Kamara, Gurley. Can't play them all in one lineup. Can't decide whether we even need the value this week.

Edited by mrip541

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On 9/19/2018 at 9:29 PM, Zyphros said:

Is it weird that I hate almost every WR this week?  

I like Julio, Michael Thomas, Antonio, and DeAndre. But there's a huge second tier that I think is overpriced this week given the matchups. So many of my cards have one top guy and two cheap guys.

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Latavius Murray the best value in these contests this week.

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I'm also playing Sony Michel as a cheap / possibly explosive flex on a few cards in week 3.

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34 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I'm also playing Sony Michel as a cheap / possibly explosive flex on a few cards in week 3.

I had this exact thought for a Sunday-monday gpp entry

Seems like his snaps ate into Rex's workload, so if they are ahead he might get more touches.  

Edited by KarmaPolice
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Really struggling to put a cash LU together. Bortles has a very high H-value listed, and entered an initial LU with him in it. But the more I think about it, as a double-digit home favorite, I'm just not seeing that kind of value here. Am I wrong about this?

 

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1 hour ago, reel_smooth said:

Really struggling to put a cash LU together. Bortles has a very high H-value listed, and entered an initial LU with him in it. But the more I think about it, as a double-digit home favorite, I'm just not seeing that kind of value here. Am I wrong about this?

 

I have Bortles or Newton in all my LU’s fwiw. 

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Thoughts on FD Cash - Newton, Kamara, Clement (assuming all RBs are out), Thomas, Davis, Agholar, Ebron, Murray, Vikings?? Only changes would be dropping down to Watson (or lower) and swapping Clement for Bernard. 

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Dammit, Cook out, so Murray is chalky now.  

 

FWIW, I looked at RGs optimal and it had Wentz - Murray/Kamara/Gurley - Julio/Funchess/Boyd - Ebron - Chicago

 

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1 hour ago, Marky_422 said:

Thoughts on FD Cash - Newton, Kamara, Clement (assuming all RBs are out), Thomas, Davis, Agholar, Ebron, Murray, Vikings?? Only changes would be dropping down to Watson (or lower) and swapping Clement for Bernard. 

is this Corey Davis?

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2 hours ago, Marky_422 said:

Thoughts on FD Cash - Newton, Kamara, Clement (assuming all RBs are out), Thomas, Davis, Agholar, Ebron, Murray, Vikings?? Only changes would be dropping down to Watson (or lower) and swapping Clement for Bernard. 

One of my lineups is almost identical. However, Clement hit the injury report so I have Bernard at Flex. 

I have Cole over Davis. 

And for GPP I actually have one of my Newton lineups with Thomas at TE. Don’t feel great about it but we know Cam likes his TE and he is super cheap allowing you to spend elsewhere. 

Edited by Elevencents
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Couple random thoughts:

1.  I understand the hype on Jimmy G and see his W-L record, but does he have the tools to push that game (on the road in a hard stadium to play in) to the must stack game that people are making it out to be?  He has a couple games with 300+ yds, but still doesn't have a game with more than 2 TDs.   I just keep wondering if the gpp play is to fade this game besides the KC D and one piece like Hunt or Hill (also correlating with the D) and look at another game or team.  

2.  Is Minnesota one of those sneaky teams to stack up for a gpp?  People seem to look at the back and forth games for ideas, but Minny has the 3rd highest implied total.  Don't need to run it back, but I could see a stack like Cousins/Murray/Minn D + a pass catcher going a lot lower owned than KC/SF/NO/Atl and a couple other teams that seemed to be talked about a bit this week.  

3.  I think another slightly lower owned option is looking at the Chargers/Rams game.  A lot of weapons to choose from - all 3 of the Rams WRs are getting good targets, along with Gurley and then of course Gordon/Ekler/Allen on the other side.   Might be slightly lower owned because the options are a little more spread out than a game like NO/Atl where we know to jam in Coleman/Julio/Thomas/Kamara.

 

:shrug:

 

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Staring at things more, and the Giants/Houst game sticks out a tad as well for gpps on the main slate.  

I wrote down the QBs that had a good DVOA matchup, then I highlighted the ones on a team that seems to have a quicker pace, and also vs. a D with a low sack rate and/or attempt a lot of passes.  Brady and Stafford were on there, but aren't on the main slate.  The ones left for the main slate were Cousins, Watson, and Bortles.   Also, Giants were in the top half as far as pace of play/# of plays as well which I like.  

So I guess I will stick with what I wrote above, that I like a Watson-Hopkins-Engram game stack, and I am also looking at other pieces like Barkley and Miller.  

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18 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

 Is Minnesota one of those sneaky teams to stack up for a gpp?  People seem to look at the back and forth games for ideas, but Minny has the 3rd highest implied total.  Don't need to run it back, but I could see a stack like Cousins/Murray/Minn D + a pass catcher going a lot lower owned than KC/SF/NO/Atl and a couple other teams that seemed to be talked about a bit this week. 

My play here is a Latavius Murray / Minny D stack. Not disagreeing with your logic, though.

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18 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I think another slightly lower owned option is looking at the Chargers/Rams game.  A lot of weapons to choose from - all 3 of the Rams WRs are getting good targets, along with Gurley and then of course Gordon/Ekler/Allen on the other side.  

I'm too chicken to start him, but I have this strange feeling that the LA game is a shootout where Rivers does much better than what's expected.

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5 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I'm too chicken to start him, but I have this strange feeling that the LA game is a shootout where Rivers does much better than what's expected.

I put a LU in the superflex with Goff/Rivers.  

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I took a stand, and decided that I like the OL vs. DL stats early on vs. looking at the DVOA after only a couple weeks when looking at RBs for gpps.  The ones that showed up with the best matchups for the main slate were:  Miller, Drake, Breida/Morris, Gordon, McCaffrey, Fournette?,  GB backs, Peterson, Gio, Lindsay, Kamara.   The ones bolded are at home.  Drake is one that I hadn't considered before this.   I don't usually play McCaffrey on FD, don't love the workload or script for the SF guys, GB is a mess, and also not sure of the Denver splits.   

So that left me with Miller, Drake, Gordon, Fournette, Peterson, Gio, Kamara for ideas.  

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38 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I took a stand, and decided that I like the OL vs. DL stats early on vs. looking at the DVOA after only a couple weeks when looking at RBs for gpps.  The ones that showed up with the best matchups for the main slate were:  Miller, Drake, Breida/Morris, Gordon, McCaffrey, Fournette?,  GB backs, Peterson, Gio, Lindsay, Kamara.   The ones bolded are at home.  Drake is one that I hadn't considered before this.   I don't usually play McCaffrey on FD, don't love the workload or script for the SF guys, GB is a mess, and also not sure of the Denver splits.   

So that left me with Miller, Drake, Gordon, Fournette, Peterson, Gio, Kamara for ideas.  

Love the price, game flow, and workload for Breida this week. They didn’t use Morris much vs det. He’ll likely get a lot of targets. He looked really good last week. Harder to save money this week as the studs are being adjusted. 

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33 minutes ago, Maik Jeaunz said:

Had Ridley in my lineups and then swapped him out. :bag:

9 of 23 lineups I had in play this week.  Had more exposure but swapped out 1/2 of my Bernard for Murray to upgrade Ridley.

My best lineup is winning $20 in a 25 cent gpp.  Didn't enter it anywhere else.

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