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KarmaPolice

Draftkings Week 5

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Let's forget about Wk 4 and kick this week's ###.  

I haven't done too much digging, but first glance I think Stafford is way too low at 5.7K, also maybe Carr again for gpps at 5.2K.   At RB, I will be staring at A.Jones for 4.3K and wondering if anybody can run on Det.  For WR, I think a couple guys are still looking good for cheap would be M.Willaims (4.2K), Sanu (4.0K).  Others at 6K and others are Golladay, Ridley, Boyd, J.Brown, Shepard.  

My cash placeholder that I liked quite a bit was:  

Stafford

Gurley/Barkley/McCaffrey

Boyd/M.Williams/Sanu

Seals-Jones

2.4K left for a junk D.  

 

I am sure there is a bit of tweaking that could be had as I dig deeper, but I think it sets up again for a week where you can get 3 studs in and go from there. 

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JFC, posted all my ideas for this week in last week's thread.  I will copy and paste here in an annoyingly long post.....

 

QB:

Here is the list of QBs averaging 35+ attempts/g, are on a team in the top 12 of team pace, vs. a team with a low sack rate, and vs a good matchup DVOA-wise:

Ben, Luck, Stafford, Bortles

Qbs in the next tier that had 3 of those 4 categories were Flacco, Dalton, and Rivers.  

 

 

RB   no surprise that it turned into a who's who of the top RBs.  

Here is a list of the RBs averaging 50+% of the team snaps, 30% of the team touches, and 20 touches/game:

McCaffrey, Zeke, Conner, Gurley, Kamara, Barkley, Mixon/Gio, Hyde.    Very close in touches/g were Gordon, Hunt, and David Johnson.  

Everybody on that list besides Hunt and Hyde are also averaging 5targets/g.  

 

Narrowing down the list more - McCaffrey, Zeke, Conner, Gurley, Kamara, and Gordon have the + matchups as far as OL vs. DL this week.  Again, the who's who of stud RBs.  

 

Lynch stood out as having a good matchup as far as OL and DVOA goes.  

D.Lewis, White, C.Thompson, and N.Hines were the RBs I wrote down for DK too.  They have the 50% snap, 30% touches, and also get 5+Targets/game (just not the 20 touch/game threshold).  

 

 

Wrs I have more problems with.   This is where a subscription of some sort would come in to see specific matchups and formations.  

Here is a list of WRs that have 20+% of team targets and also averaging 9+ targets/game:

C.Davis, Julio, Hopkins, Thielen, OBJ, Enunwa, A.Brown, M.Thomas, D.Adams, JuJu, Tate, K.Allen, Diggs, Boyd, Agholor (will this transfer to Alshon?), and Hilton.  

Of those, the ones that are on a team that plays at a high pace = Julio, Hopkins, Thielen, Brown, JuJu, Tate, Diggs, Hilton.  

 

I think this is the area I need to try to focus on this week to try to dig deeper for possible low $ guys to fit in with the stud RBs.  

 

 

For TE, I wrote down players with 15+% of the team targets and averaging 5+targets/game:

Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Reed, Cook, Gronk, Seals-Jones, Ebron, Njoku, Graham

 

The ones with the good DVOA matchup this week are Ertz, Kittle, Seals-Jones, and Graham.  

 

There are injuries to look at too which might make guys like Kroft and Vannett worth a shot for sub 3K darts.  

 

 

Lastly, I wrote down my usual Defenses that are the top 8 as far as adjusted sack rates.  They were:

Det, Az, Tenn, Balt, Houst, Dallas, Min, and Car.    

 

Tenn is way too pricey, but there are some other gpp Ds in there to maybe dig deeper on.  

 

 

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Cash ideas didn't differ too much from what I posted in the OP after looking at things.  My reserve LU had me dropping from Barkley to DJ and upgrading one of the WRs to G.Tate.  

 

Gpp ideas that stood out after looking at stuff was to think about the Thurs-Monday slate and maybe do a cheap Indy/NE game stack, like Luck/Hines/Rogers + White or Edelman?   Also, they have a very low total, but I kept seeing the Minn WRs on these lists, so I wonder about a Cousins/Thielen/Diggs stack and run it back with Ertz.  I am thinking that will have little to no ownership.   Atl/Pitts will have ownership, but also a ton of different ways to stack it.    I like the Det passing attack and running it back with Graham or Adams.  Jax passing attack makes for a cheap stack.   A weird matchup that stood out as far as 2 teams playing each other and both play very fast is Balt/Clev.   0 clue how I would attack that game though.  Flacco/J.Brown/Crabtree + Landry? 

 

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3 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

I'm reluctantly targeting Bortles in GPP this week. 

If the podcasts are any indication, this will be a fairly chalky option in cash and gpp with Fournette out.  I am still deciding if I want to play maybe chalky Bortles, or look at guys at a similar price point like Carr, Flacco, or Stafford.  

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10 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

If the podcasts are any indication, this will be a fairly chalky option in cash and gpp with Fournette out.  I am still deciding if I want to play maybe chalky Bortles, or look at guys at a similar price point like Carr, Flacco, or Stafford.  

I don't think there will be any QB with 10%+ ownership other than Big Ben. I also am going to gamble with Rosen/Fitz for a GPP play. 

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11 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

I don't think there will be any QB with 10%+ ownership other than Big Ben. I also am going to gamble with Rosen/Fitz for a GPP play. 

Fair enough.  I don't pay for any info, so not sure what projected ownership would be, just hear Bortles all over the place.  

Looked through more stuff, and my sneaky games to target for gpp are the Balt/Clev and Minn/Philly games.     I think Balt O is a pivot off Jax passing attack, and Minn/Philly would be a pivot off stacking Atl/Pitt.  

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Alright, I have a few in on FD, but here is what I am leaning towards on DK:

Main LU (putting this in a few 2xs, a 5x, and a 2 25cent gpps)

Carr - Gordon/McCaffrey/Gurley - C.Davis/Sanu/Jordy - Seals-Jones - Car. 

 

Still staring at and debating the WRs.  

 

For gpps I am maxing out the 20entries in the 25cent gpp for fun.   Here I am going to go heavier on Balt stacks (considering 1/3 of the entries for this), Det/Gb, KC, and Minn/Philly.   Also doing 3 in the $1 3 max and will probably go more with that Atl/Pitts game for that since it's less entries.  

 

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Bortles

Gurley/McCaffrey

Dede Westbrook/Sanu/Marquez Valdes-Scantling

vance Mcdonald

Melvin Gordon

Ravens

I am not 100% confident in my QB and WRs. Might play round some more. Also thought about dropping one of the expensive RBs for David Johnson which would free up more money for a WR. Cash game.

 

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19 minutes ago, SaturneParis said:

Bortles

Gurley/McCaffrey

Dede Westbrook/Sanu/Marquez Valdes-Scantling

vance Mcdonald

Melvin Gordon

Ravens

I am not 100% confident in my QB and WRs. Might play round some more. Also thought about dropping one of the expensive RBs for David Johnson which would free up more money for a WR. Cash game.

 

Yeldon was showing up as a top pt/$ play as well, and could free up salary for wr..   I have a sinking feeling my day could come down to not starting Bortles in cash. 

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One of my dart ideas in gpp waa to try Ty Mont on the cheap with the GB injuries.  I know the rookie was running with the first team, but I wonder if the looks go to Montgomery and Graham. 

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$5  2x

ben/gordon/conner/ridley/boyd/jones jr/mcdonald/a jones/cinci

$1 SE

carr/gordon/d johnson/theilen/cooper/m williams/cook/jones/car

.25 early only gpps

rogers/conner/mccaffrey/julio/golladay/scantling/hooper/montgomery/car

cam/jones/mccaffrey/funchess/julio/juju/hooper/montgomery/car

mahomes/yeldon/henry/brown/hill/ridley/kelce/scantling/cin

 

Good luck all!!

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18 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

$5  2x

ben/gordon/conner/ridley/boyd/jones jr/mcdonald/a jones/cinci

$1 SE

carr/gordon/d johnson/theilen/cooper/m williams/cook/jones/car

.25 early only gpps

rogers/conner/mccaffrey/julio/golladay/scantling/hooper/montgomery/car

cam/jones/mccaffrey/funchess/julio/juju/hooper/montgomery/car

mahomes/yeldon/henry/brown/hill/ridley/kelce/scantling/cin

 

Good luck all!!

Rogers and Mahomes lineups finished 3rd and 20th for $4.26 and also cashed a $2 3man pickem. $8.75 in $9.66 out.

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Not sure what it is, but yet another losing week on FD and winning on DK.  Ended up +25 yesterday, and have a Thurs-Mon LU at I think $35 that will come down a bit after the NO players get going.  

The thing is, most of that was from the afternoon only and the SNF showdown slates.  Just for those it was $20 in and about $58 out.   Overall, my gpp contests were profitable, but my main LU scored 135 and didn't cash anything.  I had the RBs OK, but some painful pivots at WR/TE/Qb cost me.  - I had Carr instead of Bortles, Seals-Jones instead of Hooper, and Baldwin.   Basically 2 0s in that LU.  

Not sure if any of my other 2 LUS would have cashed, but I think the one in the OP would have since Barkley, Stafford, Car D had good days.   On to week 6...

 

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